Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
The Telegraph, with its eye as usual on its key readership, notes house prices in Kensington & Chelsea have fallen 16% in the past year from an average £1.47 million to £1.19 million and while the wailing and gnashing of teeth continues, overall London house prices have fallen 2.4% apparently (and needless to say, it's all Rachel Reeves's fault but then so is the weather, the state of English cricket, my inability to back winners etc).
The other side of this is fewer Londoners are leaving the capital because it seems the price differential between the capital and other parts of the country isn't what it was and your East End matchbox no longer equates to a five bedroom property with 20 acres of land in Yorkshire (I mean, who wants 20 acres, who lives in a matchbox and why not Lincolnshire, Lancashire or Cheshire, why is it always Yorkshire?)
Presumably this will enable provincial English people to move back into the capital so the streets will be alive with clotted cream, whippets and dubious accents (not much different to now then).
Average house prices are an utterly useless metric when n is small. More concerning is that liquidity has completely dried up
GB News is complaining that the "Mansion Tax" could put house prices of properties UP by £30k. Which is ... interesting.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
I am aware of how dicey it was for the Ukrainians in that early stage of the war. I'm also not saying that Zelensky didn't bravely defy the wishes of the USA in order to manage the fight for Kiev - I don't know. However, it strikes me that it was probably a good deal more managed.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
I am aware of how dicey it was for the Ukrainians in that early stage of the war. I'm also not saying that Zelensky didn't bravely defy the wishes of the USA in order to manage the fight for Kiev - I don't know. However, it strikes me that it was probably a good deal more managed.
It wasn’t about wishes. It was about assumptions that Russia would win quickly. Hence Germany and France getting irritated with the U.K. supplying arms.
Which they saw as only annoying Russia and damaging the post war trade that would happen while everyone tut-tutted about how bad Russia had been.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
And their biggest success- Kherson was due to treason by the former mayor Saldo
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Finland's moral victory over Russia counted for a lot.
Today is the 1,400th day of Russia's Special Military Operation.
Russia's involvement in WW2 was only 1,418 days.
It's not true though. The Soviet Union joined the War on 17 September 1939, on the Nazi side.
No. The Soviet Union remained officially neutral in the war between Germany and the western allies.
The German declaration of war on the Soviet Union, officially Note of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany to the Soviet government from 21 June 1941 is a diplomatic note presented by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop to Soviet ambassador Vladimir Dekanozov in Berlin on 22 June 1941 at 4 a.m. local time, informing him about the German invasion of the Soviet Union and the preceding casus belli.
The Russian didn't officially declare war on Germany. The existence of the German declaration of war on the Soviet Union was long concealed by Soviet authorities, because it mentions the secret protocol to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was revealed only in 1989.
The reaction of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was described particularly in the memoirs of Georgy Zhukov. According to Zhukov, when Molotov reported that Germany had declared war, Stalin "sank down into his chair and lost himself in thought". After a protracted pause Stalin finally allowed the issue of Directive No. 2 on combat readiness at 7:15 a.m. on 22 June. According to admiral Nikolai Kuznetsov, however, Soviet troops were brought into combat readiness already on 21 June, at around 17:00.
I realise they didn't declare war, but they invaded Poland (and later the Baltic states) and therefore supported the Nazi dismemberment of Poland. That sounds like "taking part" to me. Poland was an Allied nation. They haven't declared war on Ukraine either.
Finland is usually regarded as a participant in WW2 as well.
Finland lost nearly three times the proportion of its population than the UK as casualties of the war, and during the Lapland War pretty much every settlement in the north of the country was burned to the ground, by the Germans, and the residents driven away. Following on from their heroic success in holding the Soviets at bay, despite overwhelming odds.
Finland spent most of WW2 allied to the Nazis, before switching sides in 1944. The full story is quite complex, see
To be fair, Finland had been invaded by Russia, taken terrible losses from them, and been forced to cede a significant portion of territory.
They also paid a large amount of money to the UK and France for weapons... most of which ended up not being delivered, because they were needed for our own war effort.
Can you blame them for thinking my enemy's enemy is my friend?
Certainly, it's hard to think their behavior is worse than the Soviets, who -lest we forget- started the Second World War as Germany's ally, and invaded Poland and Finland before moving onto the Baltic States.
Ah yes, Finland.
Where Stalin decided that the existence of Finland (which wanted to be neutral) was so much of a threat that he tried to take over the whole country. He was going to annex a big chunk, and put in a puppet government in what was left. See Poland.
Stalin fucked up, to the point that the Germans thought the Soviet Union was rotten and about to fall over. Whoops.
And managed to ensure that Finland was (and is) a wary and heavily neighbour to Russia, to this day.
Finland was a lukewarm ally of Hitler - they refused to attack Russia in the ways he wanted. Which is why, after the war, Stalin didn't try and insist on another takeover (as with the rest of Eastern Europe).
In The Gathering Storm Churchill wrote that he was impressed by the fight put up by the Finns in 1939. He asked his staff to see whether military aid could be provided by sending forces through Narvik and then across Sweden. It would also have the effect of cutting off iron ore from Kiruna to Germany. He was told this would be against the neutral status of both Norway and Sweden. The German invasion of Norway changed that and of course an attempt was made against Narvik in 1940.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Indeed: and it is entirely possible that the rest of Ukraine will be fully aligned with the West, which will do it no harm at all.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Indeed: and it is entirely possible that the rest of Ukraine will be fully aligned with the West, which will do it no harm at all.
I don't think I've ever managed to kill a PB conversation stone dead with a single post before.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
The Ukrainians and Russians don't seem to have realised it either, to be fair.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine is pouring vast amounts of blood and treasure into a war they never wanted. It's entirely understandable they want that to stop, upper hand or not.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
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https://www.gbnews.com/money/rachel-reeves-mansion-tax-inflate-house-prices
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU0Urn-lX_s
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
Which they saw as only annoying Russia and damaging the post war trade that would happen while everyone tut-tutted about how bad Russia had been.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh56T11dhzQ
Russia now controls far less land in Ukraine than it did one month into the war.
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mavup5xf3k23