Ed Miliband is 33/1 to be the next Chancellor – politicalbetting.com
Ed Miliband is 33/1 to be the next Chancellor – politicalbetting.com
? EXC: Miliband ‘pitching himself as next chancellor’Energy Secretary allegedly ‘auditioned’ for role while giving speech in Commons about cost of living crisishttps://t.co/tZhAwxH1AC
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But not on BF therefor I'm out.
Landlord Martin Knowles has told the Chancellor not to try to enjoy a festive pint in the Marsh Inn in her Leeds constituency after he was hit with a £2,500 hike in business rates.
The Chancellor posed with Mr Knowles in his pub last July, soon after she took over at the Treasury following Labour's election victory, but now the publican has put up a sign making clear that all Labour MPs, including Ms Reeves, are not welcome on his premises.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15402603/Youre-barred-Furious-landlord-bans-Rachel-Reeves-local-pub-Chancellors-tax-hikes-crippling-hospitality-industry.html
Reform. 25%
Conservatives 22%
Greens. 19%
Labour 18%
Lib dems 10%
Poll of 5,195 voters between 11th and 15th December
Could get "interesting".
This would make it a trans tram train
I thank you (bows to the audience)
That said, LLG 47 RefCon 47 is not a million miles away from the other pollsters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15398909/British-family-accused-wheeling-DEAD-grandmother-easyJet-flight-Spain-telling-cabin-crew-tired.html
Doesn’t count for the PB predictions competition for example.
Maybe @TSE can explain why it should be ignored with apparently 5,195 voters polled
To be honest it is not far away from trend other than a closing of the gap between reform and conservatives which I would have thought many would be pleased about
If Ashcroft is correct, just imagine being a Tory MP/ex MP who has jumped ship to the Faragistas from the "winning here" Tories.
Ref -2
Con +2
Grn +1
Lab nc
LD -1
Most of those going to reform are well suited, but maybe they will end up with egg on their faces by 2029
So Farage would be PM with Badenoch Leader of the Opposition still potentially. However Labour and the LDs, the SNP and Greens combined would be on 247 MPs ie more than either Reform or the Tories.
So Farage could only become PM with Tory support, Badenoch or whoever was PM could decide to make him PM or could equally abstain in which case no party would have a majority to become PM. You could even get a Tory, Labour and LD grand coalition which would have more MPs combined than Reform and with SNP and Green support to keep out Farage would combined have a majority, maybe with PMs alternating between Labour, Tory and LD Ireland style as between FF and FG to keep out SF
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
On checking Lord Ashcrofts polling he is not a BPC member but buys in polling from professional reputable companies typically members of the BPC and the underlying data is generated using standard industry practices
As it is, they need another 222 runs with 4 wickets remaining.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c4gzepgrd2yt#Scorecard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_the_34th_Dáil
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_the_33rd_Dáil
I’m afraid it’s not very good, simply a (sympathetic) day by day account that attributes his fall to badly judged circumstances rather than digging into his terrible character flaws.
If Jenrick replaced Kemi as Tory leader he would almost certainly take the Tories into government with Farage and Reform though. Kemi probably would but might equally just abstain, which Cleverly might also do rather than have to form a government with Reform or Labour
The one who wins is the party who soaks up the votes for their block. A 50/50 split in the right block just results in a lot of second places for Reform & Tories. Kemi has to be aiming for over 30%. She may do it given the time to 2029
https://benansell.substack.com/p/bloc-parties
Okay, they are even Dumber than we thought. They removed the clickable link but not the file‼️
😆😂🤣
I just went there and manually put 468 in, it's still there. 🤦
https://bsky.app/profile/somebluedevil.bsky.social/post/3mah52gs4522q
🚨 Andrew Tate has been BATTERED and comprehensively beaten by a novice boxer, Chase DeMoor
https://bsky.app/profile/gadget44027447.bsky.social/post/3mahfgt7qxk22
Should Rayner return to Cabinet?
Yes 26
No 57
Would Rayner be better or worse PM than Starmer?
Better 14
Worse 33
But of course Labour members will vote to make her leader and therefore also PM.
It’ll be like more welfare in the Budget - they will do the precise opposite of what the public wants. They will cheer wildly while doing the very thing which will guarantee their defeat.
https://news.sky.com/story/almost-two-in-three-labour-members-back-burnham-over-starmer-for-leader-poll-show-13441078
https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1972647566941827415?s=20
Rayner is too thick, Burnham too flaky.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/andy-burnham-preferred-keir-starmer-pm-narrowly-leads-nigel-farage
That's enough for me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c4gzepgrd2yt#LiveReporting
ETA however, that can easily be fixed. The question is whether this means the end of cartoonists' jobs, as per Leon, or the ability of every newsletter, blog or class 5 parents' group to publish its own daily cartoons.
But is that an error ?
There's a third country that supplies oil to China that is in need of the cash.
Deputy PM expensed more than any other Cabinet minister for accountancy bills
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/news/david-lammy-claimed-almost-7000-on-expenses-for-tax-returns/ (£££)
Does this make it more or less likely that Lammy will be next Chancellor? (20/1 in the header.)
But this is just wrong.
“The administration inserted a photo of Bill Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Diana Ross into the Epstein files & falsely implied it showed them with victims.
In reality, it’s a publicly available fundraiser photo featuring Jackson & Ross’s own children
https://x.com/peterjukes/status/2002394603396202596
On a stroll through Hainault forest, the health secretary extols the virtues of Waitrose chocolate biscuits, talks up closer relations with the EU and spoils for a fight with the chancellor over the size of British tax bills
https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/im-diplomatically-ducking-the-question-this-is-not-a-pitch-or-a-job-application
The Observer's front page lead is this ‘not a pitch or a job application’ covering Wes's thoughts on the state of the nation, European trade, taxation, even religion and its misuse by the right, with some great, non-AI, photographs of Hainault Forest and an account of his tough childhood and a place at Cambridge thanks to hard work and his dear old mum – hold on, did he say this is not a job application? I'm getting flashbacks of that John Major PPB where he was driven through Brixton on a route that quite accidentally went by his old home.
Has there ever been a poll with the sitting Government in fourth? (I'm aware the Tories came 5th in the 2019 European Parliament election, but that was less of a poll, more a free shot to kick Bishop Brennan up the arse....)
Huh? How can the mainstream media just let that nonsense ride?
Good morning, everybody.
There’s been a few this year.
There were some in 2019 as well having the Tories fourth.
It is not just the dire approval ratings that make the Starmer government look so bereft of allies; it is the absence of any visible cheerleaders at Westminster or beyond it. For that, Sir Keir is copping much of the blame from his party. It is not the case that the country has “fallen out of love” with Labour. It was never in love in the first place.
This is a broadly centrist government led by a serious and hardworking man who is committed to some worthy goals. Which is a terrible combination in our hyper-polarised media environment. The achievements it can fairly claim get next to no attention while its blunders receive maximum magnification.
He is also grappling with the systemic challenge that has defeated so many governments in the affluent world since the crippling financial crisis of 2007-09. How do you satisfy public demand for decent state services at reasonable levels of taxation when growth is so anaemic? The doom loop of higher taxes for unsatisfactory services feeds the corrosion of trust in the state and its ability to deliver.
There’s a compelling case that the defining political event of the past 12 months came in the summer when No 10 and the Treasury combined in an effort to curb the ballooning cost of disability benefits, only to be forced into an abject and authority-shredding retreat by their own backbenchers. Those who hated the idea of welfare reform liked the government no better for the fact that it was forced to capitulate. Those who think we need welfare reform despaired that the government proved incapable of implementing it. There was another chaotic tale surrounding the budget…. [which] became a spirit-sapping feel-bad affair about leaks and accusations of misrepresentation.
It’s an unmerry Christmas for those in power. As you gather in what I hope is the warm embrace of your loved ones, spare a thought for our sadly cheerless and friendless government.
As we enter the forest, he signals that he would like the UK to join a customs union with the European Union. “We’ve taken a massive economic hit leaving the European Union. I’m really uncomfortable with the level of taxation in this country. We’re asking a lot of individual taxpayers, we’re asking a lot of businesses. We’ve got a level of indebtedness that we need to take very seriously,” he says. “The best way for us to get more growth into our economy is a deeper trading relationship with the EU.”
If he was BPC registered we would know.
Terrible time for the junior doctors to strike. Feel very angry they've done this now during winter flu crisis.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/2002413939578085660
Have we discussed this? Denmark PO no longer delivering letters, despite (a) they becoming more popular with the young, (b) the government having a legal obligation to ensure this option so it has to use a courier without letterboxes, and (c) a non-trivial percentage requiring the government to send communications on paper (despite this being an opt-out, which makes me wonder how many have realised in the first place ...).
Good morning, everyone.
So 'Levelling Up' seems to have had a benefit economically but not politically. The other point of note is the strong correlation between Independents and Reform in poorer areas. Labour won the 20 poorest (IMD definition) seats but Reform and Independents were almost always 2nd party in those seats. So if things don't improve economically, you could argue that Reform/Independents will succeed at the expense of the other parties.
More bleating from the hospitality industry and some petty spite planning to "ban Labour MPs" from pubs, restaurants etc.
I've very little sympathy - there are two aspects to the whingeing. First, the NI increases - well, all businesses have had to pay for the elephant trap laid for the incoming Government by Sunak and Hunt.
Second, the ending of business rate relief - this was introduced by the Conservatives in 2020 during COVID (and rightly so given no one could go out initially and the virus spreader Eat Out to Help Out was a politically motivated catastrophe) but instead of a rapid removal after a year or two it was left in place for a five year timeframe and of course Reeves and Starmer have been left holding that grenade when it exploded.
I suppose Reeves could have continued with the business rates relief (not quite sure why she didn't and that's her political error) but rather like Council Tax, the political pain of revaluation isn't worth it so the sleeping dog can remain unmolested in the lounge bar by the fire.
The other side of the argument is the hospitality industry has or should have prospered from reduced business rates in a way other businesses (presumably) haven't and the end of the relief has been akin to Cleese and Palin at the end of the fish slapping dance.
Nonetheless, it's quite clear a lot of this is simply playing politics - I've not for instance heard Badenoch or Stride commit to restoring the Business Rates relief at 2020 levels should they get into power next time (and Reform's position on this is also unknown). Pubs and restaurants can choose who they wish to serve but this is petty and vindictive and one could argue it was well known the relief would last only five years.
Marcus Fox: We could cut a billion off welfare, easy.
Peter Lilley: That means taking a thousand pounds from a million poor families. It's not easy.
I thought we did well today to get the margin to under 100 runs and I wouldn't be surprised if we won one of the last two tests. I follow a football team which often loses and they lose not because of a lack of ability but because individuals make poor choices under pressure - in cricket, that means poor shot selection with the bat, in football that means getting it wrong in defence and allowing the opposition to put the ball in the back of the net.
Perhaps it is the human element after all - all the coaching, training, sports development and the like can't stop human nature and sometimes we do what we do because we are who we are.
Without Lyon, Cummins and Smith we might win one of the last two Tests. But in a sense I actually hope we don't because it will serve to obscure the magnitude of the failings.
And make no mistake, this tour has been a mess. The Bashir situation alone demands a serious reckoning for the management,
A minimum wage of £25K+ may make sense in Hampstead, but not in a lot of rural areas. It's also hitting casual young people work hard.
Besides, everyone knows that adding low-value added jobs that have to be done by cheap imported labour is part of a problem. So we need to remove those jobs, don't we?