Stinker for Kippers - Opinium used to be their banker.
I really do find the idea that Kippers can grow their support base to be almost comical. Their core xenophobic offer to the voters is one which is either immediately accepted or rejected.
Now they have lapped up pretty much all the EDL and BNP voters and non-voting supporters encouraged by media-hype they have reached their threshold.
A pretty decent threshold nonetheless.
The argument seems to be that people shouldn't support UKIP, therefore they don't support UKIP.
My argument is not about my own personal views on UKIP. It is about the lack of acceptance of electoral reality by UKIP supporters. The idea they can win more than a handful of seats is beyond the realms of either realistic expectation and, more importantly, historical evidence.
One could have said the same of Labour in 1920 or the SNP in 2011.
Labour holding up very well in London and doing enough in the North, perhaps outperforming slightly in Lancashire I reckon.
I think Labour could struggle in some of the former mill towns in Lancashire, like Pendle -- a lot of them are in such long-term decline that I feel they could have major UKIP potential, at Labour's expense.
The battle of Shit Hill will be an interesting one.
Opinium have changed their methodology, so wouldn't read too much into the UKIP drop
The effect of these changes has been to remove some of the variation and statistical noise we have seen between polls. It also has the effect of slightly upweighting the Conservatives and downweighting UKIP while leaving Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens broadly unchanged.
Only I understand it is well overdue and there is now only 3 months to GE2015
Sunil has been spoken to about this. He says he is doing all he can. In fact he would be posting here tonite were he not busy leafleting Ilford North right now.
Anyway, he assures me we will get crossover any month soon.
Stinker for Kippers - Opinium used to be their banker.
I really do find the idea that Kippers can grow their support base to be almost comical. Their core xenophobic offer to the voters is one which is either immediately accepted or rejected.
Now they have lapped up pretty much all the EDL and BNP voters and non-voting supporters encouraged by media-hype they have reached their threshold.
Get used to laughing. UKIP's support has grown five-fold since 2010. 15% is 5 m votes, in a general election.
In other words, almost 8,000 votes per constituency.
That doesn't matter according to the history of British politics.
Take the Lib Dems. Let's take the 70s out the equation (and this helps your hopes). From the Alliance founding it took the Alliance/LibDems 15 years to translate their consistent 20% to 25% of the vote into a decent number of seats. Despite the 20% to 25% they only ever had 20 odd seats in 1983 (albeit as two parties) 1987 and 1992, not until 1997 did they move from 20-odd to 50+ seats and even then they haven't moved significantly in number of seats since then.
History is not on the side of the UKIP dreamers.
The Alliance's support was too evenly distributed across the country to win many seats. UKIP's support is more concentrated.
If you're going to make that argument then the UKIP dreamers need to make a more consistent claim. But each thread is filled with claims that UKIP are making moves in Wales, in the North, in Cities, in the West, in London.
The Alliance did not have "even" support. As today it was heavily concentrated in a few areas, predominantly seats it inherited.
The Alliance inherited almost all the seats it had until 1997. 15 years of very consistent polling, higher than UKIPs current numbers didn't even give them double figures in number of seats gained. Over 15 years. Just stop and think about that.
"The Tory press have thrown everything at EIC this week It looks like LAB lead has increased."
I wonder whether it's all the publicity Ed is getting for his assault on the Monaco based fat cats or whether it's just an electorate who haven't started to take an interest yet?
Stinker for Kippers - Opinium used to be their banker.
I really do find the idea that Kippers can grow their support base to be almost comical. Their core xenophobic offer to the voters is one which is either immediately accepted or rejected.
Now they have lapped up pretty much all the EDL and BNP voters and non-voting supporters encouraged by media-hype they have reached their threshold.
Get used to laughing. UKIP's support has grown five-fold since 2010. 15% is 5 m votes, in a general election.
In other words, almost 8,000 votes per constituency.
That doesn't matter according to the history of British politics.
Take the Lib Dems. Let's take the 70s out the equation (and this helps your hopes). From the Alliance founding it took the Alliance/LibDems 15 years to translate their consistent 20% to 25% of the vote into a decent number of seats. Despite the 20% to 25% they only ever had 20 odd seats in 1983 (albeit as two parties) 1987 and 1992, not until 1997 did they move from 20-odd to 50+ seats and even then they haven't moved significantly in number of seats since then.
History is not on the side of the UKIP dreamers.
The Alliance's support was too evenly distributed across the country to win many seats. UKIP's support is more concentrated.
If you're going to make that argument then the UKIP dreamers need to make a more consistent claim. But each thread is filled with claims that UKIP are making moves in Wales, in the North, in Cities, in the West, in London.
The Alliance did not have "even" support. As today it was heavily concentrated in a few areas, predominantly seats it inherited.
The Alliance inherited almost all the seats it had until 1997. 15 years of very consistent polling, higher than UKIPs current numbers didn't even give them double figures in number of seats gained. Over 15 years. Just stop and think about that.
The Alliance got a decent voteshare in virtually every seat in the country in 1983 (and thus, fewer disproportionately great performances at the higher end of the scale). It was much more evenly distributed even than the Lib Dems' vote was in 2010.
Compare that to UKIP who are going to be losing deposits right and left in Scotland and London, meaning their votes are going to have to disproportionately stack up greater elsewhere.
Opinium have changed their methodology, so wouldn't read too much into the UKIP drop
The effect of these changes has been to remove some of the variation and statistical noise we have seen between polls. It also has the effect of slightly upweighting the Conservatives and downweighting UKIP while leaving Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens broadly unchanged.
They have had them up 20, 19, 18 for the last few months.
You can read I take it?
"With three months until the general election, this week’s poll brings a number of changes to our survey methodology as we leave ‘peacetime’ and approach the campaign."
As someone who is very interested in politics and always votes, I can say with utter certainty that I have never voted for a candidate in my entire life. Every vote I have ever cast has been for a party.
I would find it hard to believe I am unusual in this. If you're basing this on some evidence is it perhaps evidence for incumbency and not candidature?
I would never for vote for a party.
The truth is that there are no easy decisions, and all decisions are trade-offs. And the power of politicians is more limited than people think.
If my local candidate was Nick Palmer, I would vote for him. If my local candidate was Richard Tyndall, I would vote for him. If my local candidate was Edmund from Tokyo, I would vote for him. In fact, I'd vote for a large number of PBers, from across the political spectrum, if they were my local candidate.
What I would not do was vote for brightly coloured flag, of any hue.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The Tory press have thrown everything at EIC this week It looks like LAB lead has increased. Wonder what is left for the Tories? Glad i am not on Cameron next PM at 1.63
Ed chucked everything he could at himself and people sat back amazed in wtf moments. Maybe EdM is just trying to secure more Unite etc funding by announcing many socialist policies as EdM is desperate for their cash and time is running out to be able to spend it?
Stinker for Kippers - Opinium used to be their banker.
I really do find the idea that Kippers can grow their support base to be almost comical. Their core xenophobic offer to the voters is one which is either immediately accepted or rejected.
Now they have lapped up pretty much all the EDL and BNP voters and non-voting supporters encouraged by media-hype they have reached their threshold.
A pretty decent threshold nonetheless.
The argument seems to be that people shouldn't support UKIP, therefore they don't support UKIP.
My argument is not about my own personal views on UKIP. It is about the lack of acceptance of electoral reality by UKIP supporters. The idea they can win more than a handful of seats is beyond the realms of either realistic expectation and, more importantly, historical evidence.
One could have said the same of Labour in 1920 or the SNP in 2011.
Not really because 1920 is 50 years after the first Liberal Labour electoral success. Remember Labour existed as trade union backed candidates under the Liberal banner for 30 years before the party was founded itself. It took another 10 years to get to 40 MPs. Not to mention this was a much less plural democracy where there was no real breadth of party options available, only the Communists (disorganised, anarchist and tainted by association) occupied the left of the spectrum.
The idea that UKIP can go from its first MP (via defection) in 2014 to being a remotely significant parliamentary party in anything under 15 to 20 years is frankly ridiculous.
As someone who is very interested in politics and always votes, I can say with utter certainty that I have never voted for a candidate in my entire life. Every vote I have ever cast has been for a party.
I would find it hard to believe I am unusual in this. If you're basing this on some evidence is it perhaps evidence for incumbency and not candidature?
I am the same. My vote is for the party, every time.
Totally agree,perfectly good MPs can be swept out,and replaced with unknown,possibly inadequate candidates. Many people round here cannot even name their MP,they just vote on party lines. Geraldine Smith came to power in Morecambe and Lunesdale,replacing Lennox-Boyd(Con),purely on national sentiment,and got swept out again for the same reason,I suspect the current Con incumbent will have the same fate. My personal experience of David Morris is he he has done OK,and always responded well to anything I have asked,but .....who knows what awaits. MPs in marginals have a short life expectancy.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
Those numbers still mean Miliband is PM.
(Does EICIPM stand for Ed is Crap is Prime Minister? Not certain and its hard to work out)
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
Trying to avoid spread betting but Lab most seats and EICIPM drift has certainly been of interest.
Evening all. Prompted by DavidL, I've been thinking about which Lib Dems look set to survive in May, and what that might mean for post-election coalition negotiations:
I can forsee one or two of those in the safe column losing their seats (Hughes,Kennedy ?) and perhaps one or two in the doomed column hanging on... Does Crockart have a chance ?
But of course shocks are equally likely on both sides of the equation and so don't actually need consideration
As ever it's a fantastic article, Clegg in particular losing his seat changes the dynamic a huge amount as Farron surely takes over the reigns.
Kennedy will not lose. He is becoming an elder statesman while still young. He is untainted by this toxic coalition.
Only because he is invisible and has done nothing for years
The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Only I understand it is well overdue and there is now only 3 months to GE2015
Sunil has been spoken to about this. He says he is doing all he can. In fact he would be posting here tonite were he not busy leafleting Ilford North right now.
Anyway, he assures me we will get crossover any month soon.
Andy Burnham further confirming he will run from as the leading Left-wing candidate in any leadership election:
When we ask him whether he prefers Alan Milburn or Nye Bevan, the shadow health secretary looks horrified. “That’s like asking me to choose between Liverpool and Everton. Nye Bevan, of course.”
...
“At times we did get too close to big business . . . I fully sign up to the New Labour message of the early years that we need to be pro-business to support our aspirations for equality and public services, but there is a danger that if you become too close you are unable to disentangle what are vested interests from the national interest.”
Corporate tax avoidance has become a major issue for voters, he believes. “People are really angry about the sense that these companies are not paying their way. Starbucks, Google, Amazon and the rest . . . are damaging our town centres and the fabric of our life but they are not contributing to repair that damage. It’s a moral question.”
I suppose we could all have a lobotomy and see the world as Tories do.
An ed victory would be a big threat to the personal circumstances of many tories. Not the mythical Monaco money men of ed's wet dreams. They never pay.
The solid middle class person who has a few quid through hard work. The sort that ed is really after.
Only I understand it is well overdue and there is now only 3 months to GE2015
Sunil has been spoken to about this. He says he is doing all he can. In fact he would be posting here tonite were he not busy leafleting Ilford North right now.
Anyway, he assures me we will get crossover any month soon.
Ukip in terminal decline can bank 2 MPs after GE2015,less important than the SDLP.The 11-4 on Farage to take Thanet South looks value now and Farage can accompany Carswell.
When Tory voters were asked to imagine that only Labour or Ukip could realistically win in their constituency, 30% said they would be prepared to vote Ukip to keep Labour out.
When Labour voters were told to imagine they lived in a constituency where only the Conservatives or Lib Dems could win, 22% said they would vote Lib Dem.
Perhaps surprisingly for a party whose membership is regarded as closer to Labour than the Tories, more Lib Dems said they would vote Tory to keep Labour out (23%) than would opt for Labour in order to prevent a Tory MP winning (13%).
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
I think the main reason that they have gotten such a poor reception was a result of their announcements immediately post election: 1. increasing the minimum wage and pensions, 2. cancelling privatisations, 3. speaking out against the tourist industry, and 4. rehiring a bunch of fired civil servants. The other Eurozone governments have - to some extent - taken the view that a SYRIZA led Greece is probably going to be an economic disaster zone, so there is little benefit to making concessions to them.
As a result, Greece has had to make a number of concessions - they've told investors that they realise their spending promises cannot be kept; they've accepted the need for some kind of 'supervision' (although they want a long-term plan, and not one which requires them to adhere to short-term targets); they've promised a 'permanent' 1-1.5% primary budget surplus.
What they 'want' is an extension of maturities, a reduction in interest rates, some kind of GDP linked repayment/interest bonds, and a moratorium on interest payments on a portion of their debt for 10 years.
I think they will get most of these (although probably not a 10 year moratorium on interest payments), but the price will be supervision, and a continuation of the IMF-led economic plan. Given this will effectively knock 30-50% off the real value of Greece's debt, this would be a terrific deal. However, I remain sceptical that this deal (which means continuing on the reform path, and continuing with 'supervision') will be acceptable to SYRIZA hard-liners. My most likely scenario, therefore, remains that Tsipras comes back with a great, deal but cannot get it past his party. There are therefore two possible outcomes: 1. he gets it through with the support of ND/Potemi/PASOK, or 2. new elections.
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
Trying to avoid spread betting but Lab most seats and EICIPM drift has certainly been of interest.
Laying Cameron as short as 1.63 too has been fun
Ignore movements on the spread-betting markets at your peril - they represent a pure distillation of what those whose minds have been concentrated by money believe the result is likely to be. Of course the two main parties are still very close so too much shouldn't be read into what are after all quite small movements.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)
Another Richard..too busy ..I will get my editor to do it....one word at a time..ok.. we should be able to manage that..meanwhile.. on with another book ..and another TV series to shoot..
Ukip in terminal decline can bank 2 MPs after GE2015,less important than the SDLP.The 11-4 on Farage to take Thanet South looks value now and Farage can accompany Carswell.
OT..The Rotherham Council Cabinet that resigned last week are still Councillors..Should EdM have a word
Andrew Neil's tweet implies he isn't impressed.
Andrew Neil @afneil 7m7 minutes ago So #rotherham "cabinet" which turned blind eye to child sex slavery gone; but members still councillors picking up expenses and allowances?
Another Richard..too busy ..I will get my editor to do it....one word at a time..ok.. we should be able to manage that..meanwhile.. on with another book ..and another TV series to shoot.. </blockquote
LOL, keep trying to make out you amount to more than a hill of beans, saddo
"When we ask him whether he prefers Alan Milburn or Nye Bevan, the shadow health secretary looks horrified. “That’s like asking me to choose between Liverpool and Everton. Nye Bevan, of course.”"
Milburn Is on a par with Blair in the infamy stakes. What a bizarre question to ask a Labour politician.
Ukip in terminal decline can bank 2 MPs after GE2015,less important than the SDLP.The 11-4 on Farage to take Thanet South looks value now and Farage can accompany Carswell.
Ignore movements on the spread-betting markets at your peril - they represent a pure distillation of what those whose minds have been concentrated by money believe the result is likely to be. Of course the two main parties are still very close so too much shouldn't be read into what are after all quite small movements.
Going by spread betting movements is a bit like studying the Wisdom Index polls of what people think that other people think, with an arbitrary weighting added for people with more money. The spread punters know no more than we do (indeed most of them probably post here). All we really know is the published polls, which unanimously show a small Labour lead and a largish swing in England.
The fact that they choose to put their money on something else is interesting as a psychological phenomenon, but not as a better guide than the source data itself.
The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)
Will it be accompanied by a wondrous blue-dominated bar chart (which you paid hundreds of Euros for but can't get it to work, whereas OGH can) ?
"When we ask him whether he prefers Alan Milburn or Nye Bevan, the shadow health secretary looks horrified. “That’s like asking me to choose between Liverpool and Everton. Nye Bevan, of course.”"
Milburn Is on a par with Blair in the infamy stakes. What a bizarre question to ask a Labour politician.
True but there's probably a lot of Labour politicians who'd run a mile at being seen to endorse Nye Bevan, for fear they'd be dismissed as "dangerously radical".
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)
Will it be accompanied by a wondrous blue-dominated bar chart (which you paid hundreds of Euros for but can't get it to work, whereas OGH can) ?
Evening all. Prompted by DavidL, I've been thinking about which Lib Dems look set to survive in May, and what that might mean for post-election coalition negotiations:
I can forsee one or two of those in the safe column losing their seats (Hughes,Kennedy ?) and perhaps one or two in the doomed column hanging on... Does Crockart have a chance ?
But of course shocks are equally likely on both sides of the equation and so don't actually need consideration
As ever it's a fantastic article, Clegg in particular losing his seat changes the dynamic a huge amount as Farron surely takes over the reigns.
Kennedy will not lose. He is becoming an elder statesman while still young. He is untainted by this toxic coalition.
Only because he is invisible and has done nothing for years
Isn't that how some Roman Emperors managed to rise to the top? He's playing a long game, Kennedy. Or he focused on saving himself the only way he could a long time ago.
If the SPIN midpoints are the results after the GE, I'd expect a swift coup by Farron on Clegg with Lib Dem and the SNP supporting a Labour minority administration on a bill by bill basis.
Totally agree,perfectly good MPs can be swept out,and replaced with unknown,possibly inadequate candidates. Many people round here cannot even name their MP,they just vote on party lines.
This is of course also the problem with the supposed benefit of PCCs, that is you can vote them out if they do a poor job, when in fact it is certain some good ones will go because their party is doing poorly in a region next time around, and some bad ones will stick around due to the reverse situation.
"When we ask him whether he prefers Alan Milburn or Nye Bevan, the shadow health secretary looks horrified. “That’s like asking me to choose between Liverpool and Everton. Nye Bevan, of course.”"
Milburn Is on a par with Blair in the infamy stakes. What a bizarre question to ask a Labour politician.
People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
Only I understand it is well overdue and there is now only 3 months to GE2015
Sunil has been spoken to about this. He says he is doing all he can. In fact he would be posting here tonite were he not busy leafleting Ilford North right now.
Anyway, he assures me we will get crossover any month soon.
Ignore movements on the spread-betting markets at your peril - they represent a pure distillation of what those whose minds have been concentrated by money believe the result is likely to be. Of course the two main parties are still very close so too much shouldn't be read into what are after all quite small movements.
Going by spread betting movements is a bit like studying the Wisdom Index polls of what people think that other people think, with an arbitrary weighting added for people with more money. The spread punters know no more than we do (indeed most of them probably post here). All we really know is the published polls, which unanimously show a small Labour lead and a largish swing in England.
The fact that they choose to put their money on something else is interesting as a psychological phenomenon, but not as a better guide than the source data itself.
If they were really shrewd Sporting would have closed them
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
I think the main reason that they have gotten such a poor reception was a result of their announcements immediately post election: 1. increasing the minimum wage and pensions, 2. cancelling privatisations, 3. speaking out against the tourist industry, and 4. rehiring a bunch of fired civil servants. The other Eurozone governments have - to some extent - taken the view that a SYRIZA led Greece is probably going to be an economic disaster zone, so there is little benefit to making concessions to them.
As a result, Greece has had to make a number of concessions - they've told investors that they realise their spending promises cannot be kept; they've accepted the need for some kind of 'supervision' (although they want a long-term plan, and not one which requires them to adhere to short-term targets); they've promised a 'permanent' 1-1.5% primary budget surplus.
What they 'want' is an extension of maturities, a reduction in interest rates, some kind of GDP linked repayment/interest bonds, and a moratorium on interest payments on a portion of their debt for 10 years.
I think they will get most of these (although probably not a 10 year moratorium on interest payments), but the price will be supervision, and a continuation of the IMF-led economic plan. Given this will effectively knock 30-50% off the real value of Greece's debt, this would be a terrific deal. However, I remain sceptical that this deal (which means continuing on the reform path, and continuing with 'supervision') will be acceptable to SYRIZA hard-liners. My most likely scenario, therefore, remains that Tsipras comes back with a great, deal but cannot get it past his party. There are therefore two possible outcomes: 1. he gets it through with the support of ND/Potemi/PASOK, or 2. new elections.
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
Stinker for Kippers - Opinium used to be their banker.
I really do find the idea that Kippers can grow their support base to be almost comical. Their core xenophobic offer to the voters is one which is either immediately accepted or rejected.
Now they have lapped up pretty much all the EDL and BNP voters and non-voting supporters encouraged by media-hype they have reached their threshold.
Get used to laughing. UKIP's support has grown five-fold since 2010. 15% is 5 m votes, in a general election.
In other words, almost 8,000 votes per constituency.
That doesn't matter according to the history of British politics.
Take the Lib Dems. Let's take the 70s out the equation (and this helps your hopes). From the Alliance founding it took the Alliance/LibDems 15 years to translate their consistent 20% to 25% of the vote into a decent number of seats. Despite the 20% to 25% they only ever had 20 odd seats in 1983 (albeit as two parties) 1987 and 1992, not until 1997 did they move from 20-odd to 50+ seats and even then they haven't moved significantly in number of seats since then.
History is not on the side of the UKIP dreamers.
The Alliance's support was too evenly distributed across the country to win many seats. UKIP's support is more concentrated.
The Alliance inherited almost all the seats it had until 1997. 15 years of very consistent polling, higher than UKIPs current numbers didn't even give them double figures in number of seats gained. Over 15 years. Just stop and think about that.
Con/Lab are both polling in the low 30s. In the alliance days elections used to be won with >40% vote share.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
Ignore movements on the spread-betting markets at your peril - they represent a pure distillation of what those whose minds have been concentrated by money believe the result is likely to be. Of course the two main parties are still very close so too much shouldn't be read into what are after all quite small movements.
Going by spread betting movements is a bit like studying the Wisdom Index polls of what people think that other people think, with an arbitrary weighting added for people with more money. The spread punters know no more than we do (indeed most of them probably post here). All we really know is the published polls, which unanimously show a small Labour lead and a largish swing in England.
The fact that they choose to put their money on something else is interesting as a psychological phenomenon, but not as a better guide than the source data itself.
If they were really shrewd Sporting would have closed them
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
I think the main reason that they have gotten such a poor reception was a result of their announcements immediately post election: 1. increasing the minimum wage and pensions, 2. cancelling privatisations, 3. speaking out against the tourist industry, and 4. rehiring a bunch of fired civil servants. The other Eurozone governments have - to some extent - taken the view that a SYRIZA led Greece is probably going to be an economic disaster zone, so there is little benefit to making concessions to them.
As a result, Greece has had to make a number of concessions - they've told investors that they realise their spending promises cannot be kept; they've accepted the need for some kind of 'supervision' (although they want a long-term plan, and not one which requires them to adhere to short-term targets); they've promised a 'permanent' 1-1.5% primary budget surplus.
What they 'want' is an extension of maturities, a reduction in interest rates, some kind of GDP linked repayment/interest bonds, and a moratorium on interest payments on a portion of their debt for 10 years.
I think they will get most of these (although probably not a 10 year moratorium on interest payments), but the price will be supervision, and a continuation of the IMF-led economic plan. Given this will effectively knock 30-50% off the real value of Greece's debt, this would be a terrific deal. However, I remain sceptical that this deal (which means continuing on the reform path, and continuing with 'supervision') will be acceptable to SYRIZA hard-liners. My most likely scenario, therefore, remains that Tsipras comes back with a great, deal but cannot get it past his party. There are therefore two possible outcomes: 1. he gets it through with the support of ND/Potemi/PASOK, or 2. new elections.
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
Thanks Robert. Great summary. Any feel on how Syriza feel about Grexit? Sounds like financial reality is finally hitting home with them and they realize that Grexit is not a viable option either currently without such massive social dislocation it would be suicide for the party.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
I think the main reason that they have gotten such a poor reception was a result of their announcements immediately post election: 1. increasing the minimum wage and pensions, 2. cancelling privatisations, 3. speaking out against the tourist industry, and 4. rehiring a bunch of fired civil servants. The other Eurozone governments have - to some extent - taken the view that a SYRIZA led Greece is probably going to be an economic disaster zone, so there is little benefit to making concessions to them.
As a result, Greece has had to make a number of concessions - they've told investors that they realise their spending promises cannot be kept; they've accepted the need for some kind of 'supervision' (although they want a long-term plan, and not one which requires them to adhere to short-term targets); they've promised a 'permanent' 1-1.5% primary budget surplus.
What they 'want' is an extension of maturities, a reduction in interest rates, some kind of GDP linked repayment/interest bonds, and a moratorium on interest payments on a portion of their debt for 10 years.
I think they will get most of these (although probably not a 10 year moratorium on interest payments), but the price will be supervision, and a continuation of the IMF-led economic plan. Given this will effectively knock 30-50% off the real value of Greece's debt, this would be a terrific deal. However, I remain sceptical that this deal (which means continuing on the reform path, and continuing with 'supervision') will be acceptable to SYRIZA hard-liners. My most likely scenario, therefore, remains that Tsipras comes back with a great, deal but cannot get it past his party. There are therefore two possible outcomes: 1. he gets it through with the support of ND/Potemi/PASOK, or 2. new elections.
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?
Re SYRIZA and grexit: the party is split. 40% think grexit would allow Greece to achieve its socialist ambitions. 60% think it would be a disaster.
The problem is that SYRIZA is not really a party. It is a coalition of leftist groups that hated each other a few years ago. Their conferences are still full of people accusing others of being "sell outs". Tsipras has held it together, because he offered the possibility of victory. Now difficult compromises are necessary, and I don't think SYRIZA is ready for those.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Is every pollster going to change their methodology? I find the Opinium excuse for changing their methodology quite weak; that now there is only 3 months to the GE, UKIP for one, must be weighted differently. Is it because they they have made a terrible error lately, and are trying to be good boys to the high and mighty?
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?
SYRIZA said ”you can see austerity end, and stay on the euro, because the Germans are scared of grexit."
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)
How long does it take to write that desperate and rich PBTories are pouring money on Tories in the spread markets ?
Remember, in GE2010, the spread markets were showing Labour 210 -215 just before the polls.
Is every pollster going to change their methodology? I find the Opinium excuse for changing their methodology quite weak; that now there is only 3 months to the GE, UKIP for one, must be weighted differently. Is it because they they have made a terrible error lately, and are trying to be good boys to the high and mighty?
Pollsters changing methodology is like those Election Predictors who just before the result "tweak" it so they come in line with the actual result.
The Greeks want the impossible. Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future. Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Just seen the Clegg news. Surely being 3% behind in a poll with favourable post vote weighting and a massive lead over Labour in contacting constituents (34% lead), means he could be pretty screwed. The one thing in his favour is the lack of named candidates in the poll.
There is also a question of whether Labour should actively target the seat, the local campaign team seems to be doing a good job and it could be a case of Labour doing worse if people sense Labour HQ input into the seat.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Also, because there might be civil unrest... No, I said it, not Peter.
Is every pollster going to change their methodology? I find the Opinium excuse for changing their methodology quite weak; that now there is only 3 months to the GE, UKIP for one, must be weighted differently. Is it because they they have made a terrible error lately, and are trying to be good boys to the high and mighty?
Pollsters changing methodology is like those Election Predictors who just before the result "tweak" it so they come in line with the actual result.
Crosby & Fisher ? Remember the 99% certainty of a Tory majority ?
My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Also, because there might be civil unrest... No, I said it, not Peter.
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?
Except of course they were not anti-EU. They wanted to stay in both the EU and the Euro but thought they could do so on their own terms rather than submitting to the will of the EU. Sounds rather like the Tories and their unrealistic expectations for EU reform/renegotiation.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Is every pollster going to change their methodology? I find the Opinium excuse for changing their methodology quite weak; that now there is only 3 months to the GE, UKIP for one, must be weighted differently. Is it because they they have made a terrible error lately, and are trying to be good boys to the high and mighty?
Pollsters changing methodology is like those Election Predictors who just before the result "tweak" it so they come in line with the actual result.
Crosby & Fisher ? Remember the 99% certainty of a Tory majority ?
I am currently "tweaking" my Lambert & Butler Election Predictor (Pony Juice derivatives) Southend on Sea permutations. It currently shows a 567% chance of a Tory majority. If I change it to Bolton le Sands permutations it comes back with only a 232% chance of a Tory majority.
It is perfectly possible Clegg, Cable and Alexander could all lose their seats. Who would then be left to contest the LD leadership is the interesting question, maybe Farron, Laws and Davey? Yet, If it is again a hung parliament with no clear winner whoever wins that contest could yet be Deputy PM and play a role in a new coalition
My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
A good example of wishful thinking. I'm glad that I wasn't in PB then, to be taken in by this Marcus.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Comments
Anyway, he assures me we will get crossover any month soon.
The Alliance did not have "even" support. As today it was heavily concentrated in a few areas, predominantly seats it inherited.
The Alliance inherited almost all the seats it had until 1997. 15 years of very consistent polling, higher than UKIPs current numbers didn't even give them double figures in number of seats gained. Over 15 years. Just stop and think about that.
Seepage. Arf !
20+% swing described as a "seepage" !
How hindsight is brilliant
"The Tory press have thrown everything at EIC this week
It looks like LAB lead has increased."
I wonder whether it's all the publicity Ed is getting for his assault on the Monaco based fat cats or whether it's just an electorate who haven't started to take an interest yet?
Compare that to UKIP who are going to be losing deposits right and left in Scotland and London, meaning their votes are going to have to disproportionately stack up greater elsewhere.
"With three months until the general election, this week’s poll brings a number of changes to our survey methodology as we leave ‘peacetime’ and approach the campaign."
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/note-methodology
The truth is that there are no easy decisions, and all decisions are trade-offs. And the power of politicians is more limited than people think.
If my local candidate was Nick Palmer, I would vote for him. If my local candidate was Richard Tyndall, I would vote for him. If my local candidate was Edmund from Tokyo, I would vote for him. In fact, I'd vote for a large number of PBers, from across the political spectrum, if they were my local candidate.
What I would not do was vote for brightly coloured flag, of any hue.
Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The idea that UKIP can go from its first MP (via defection) in 2014 to being a remotely significant parliamentary party in anything under 15 to 20 years is frankly ridiculous.
As someone who is very interested in politics and always votes, I can say with utter certainty that I have never voted for a candidate in my entire life. Every vote I have ever cast has been for a party.
I would find it hard to believe I am unusual in this. If you're basing this on some evidence is it perhaps evidence for incumbency and not candidature?
I am the same. My vote is for the party, every time.
Totally agree,perfectly good MPs can be swept out,and replaced with unknown,possibly inadequate candidates. Many people round here cannot even name their MP,they just vote on party lines.
Geraldine Smith came to power in Morecambe and Lunesdale,replacing Lennox-Boyd(Con),purely on national sentiment,and got swept out again for the same reason,I suspect the current Con incumbent will have the same fate.
My personal experience of David Morris is he he has done OK,and always responded well to anything I have asked,but .....who knows what awaits.
MPs in marginals have a short life expectancy.
Yep, it isn't just tory posters who think the polls are total b8llocks.
Its the betting markets too. All those tories with a good chance to insure themselves against an ed prime ministership ,and they are not taking it.
LOL.
The only conclusion is the punters think these polls are garbage. They are looking at the way people vote whenever there is a real election.
I wonder if there are a few heated conversations going on at the polling companies?
(Does EICIPM stand for Ed is Crap is Prime Minister? Not certain and its hard to work out)
Laying Cameron as short as 1.63 too has been fun
"Its the betting markets too. All those tories with a good chance to insure themselves against an ed prime ministership ,and they are not taking it."
I suppose we could all have a lobotomy and see the world as Tories do
On topic, YES!
The NHSCrossover!Ed Miliband assumes the Ramsay McDonald role.
Out before the end of 2016.
An ed victory would be a big threat to the personal circumstances of many tories. Not the mythical Monaco money men of ed's wet dreams. They never pay.
The solid middle class person who has a few quid through hard work. The sort that ed is really after.
When Tory voters were asked to imagine that only Labour or Ukip could realistically win in their constituency, 30% said they would be prepared to vote Ukip to keep Labour out.
When Labour voters were told to imagine they lived in a constituency where only the Conservatives or Lib Dems could win, 22% said they would vote Lib Dem.
Perhaps surprisingly for a party whose membership is regarded as closer to Labour than the Tories, more Lib Dems said they would vote Tory to keep Labour out (23%) than would opt for Labour in order to prevent a Tory MP winning (13%).
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/07/labour-conservatives-opinion-poll-miliband-cameron?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
I think the main reason that they have gotten such a poor reception was a result of their announcements immediately post election: 1. increasing the minimum wage and pensions, 2. cancelling privatisations, 3. speaking out against the tourist industry, and 4. rehiring a bunch of fired civil servants. The other Eurozone governments have - to some extent - taken the view that a SYRIZA led Greece is probably going to be an economic disaster zone, so there is little benefit to making concessions to them.
As a result, Greece has had to make a number of concessions - they've told investors that they realise their spending promises cannot be kept; they've accepted the need for some kind of 'supervision' (although they want a long-term plan, and not one which requires them to adhere to short-term targets); they've promised a 'permanent' 1-1.5% primary budget surplus.
What they 'want' is an extension of maturities, a reduction in interest rates, some kind of GDP linked repayment/interest bonds, and a moratorium on interest payments on a portion of their debt for 10 years.
I think they will get most of these (although probably not a 10 year moratorium on interest payments), but the price will be supervision, and a continuation of the IMF-led economic plan. Given this will effectively knock 30-50% off the real value of Greece's debt, this would be a terrific deal. However, I remain sceptical that this deal (which means continuing on the reform path, and continuing with 'supervision') will be acceptable to SYRIZA hard-liners. My most likely scenario, therefore, remains that Tsipras comes back with a great, deal but cannot get it past his party. There are therefore two possible outcomes: 1. he gets it through with the support of ND/Potemi/PASOK, or 2. new elections.
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
Where can I find such riches.
Always a first time
Full Time: Everton 0 - 0 Liverpool
"When we ask him whether he prefers Alan Milburn or Nye Bevan, the shadow health secretary looks horrified. “That’s like asking me to choose between Liverpool and Everton. Nye Bevan, of course.”"
Milburn Is on a par with Blair in the infamy stakes. What a bizarre question to ask a Labour politician.
11/4?
Most of the Left leaning Libs......have already left?
The fact that they choose to put their money on something else is interesting as a psychological phenomenon, but not as a better guide than the source data itself.
Where is Audrey?
Up to 7% with Opinium is like polling 19% with ICM
(and it was a 100 Euros)
And the whole shebang won't last 5 years.
The January crossover month moving on to the February pulling away month ..... I'm loving it!
This is of course also the problem with the supposed benefit of PCCs, that is you can vote them out if they do a poor job, when in fact it is certain some good ones will go because their party is doing poorly in a region next time around, and some bad ones will stick around due to the reverse situation.
No contest Ken every time.
Same with Milburn or Hunt for me
*Not David Cameron, The Leader of Hinckley and Bosworth Council Tories
http://www.markpack.org.uk/127973/tory-leader-accused-racist-sexist-pornographic-emails-quits-faces-explusion/
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/07/labour-blacklist-hate-crime-uk-antisemitism-islamophobia-homophobia
(large pole, village green)
Spreads were way too generous to them last GE.
Lab lead 1.5%
UKIP 14.8%
LD lead over Grns 1.0%
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
The problem is that SYRIZA is not really a party. It is a coalition of leftist groups that hated each other a few years ago. Their conferences are still full of people accusing others of being "sell outs". Tsipras has held it together, because he offered the possibility of victory. Now difficult compromises are necessary, and I don't think SYRIZA is ready for those.
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Also, because there might be civil unrest...
And that was, unfortunately, not true.
Remember, in GE2010, the spread markets were showing Labour 210 -215 just before the polls.
The Greeks want the impossible.
Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future.
Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?
Mr. Putney, surely old-fangled drachma?
There is also a question of whether Labour should actively target the seat, the local campaign team seems to be doing a good job and it could be a case of Labour doing worse if people sense Labour HQ input into the seat.
Also, because there might be civil unrest...
No, I said it, not Peter.
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
No, I said it, not Peter.
I know, I just messed up :-)
I know, I just messed up :-)
Big time.
[I tried thinking of an 'obol' pun, but it's not easy...]
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4346962.ece
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.