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La Belle Alliance didn’t last very long – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,821
edited 7:49AM in General
La Belle Alliance didn’t last very long – politicalbetting.com

FT Exclusive: The Reform UK leader told donors he expects a deal or merger between his party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election, suggesting he does not believe he can sweep to power alone. https://t.co/KwTYRvF9Xb pic.twitter.com/Ptz30Psikr

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    edited 7:55AM
    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    edited 7:55AM
    In case you've not seen last night's football and the greatest overhead kick goal in history, scored by Cristian Romero for Spurs.

    https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/1995980346756632963
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,115
    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,068
    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,651
    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,115
    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    The present government certainly seems to give the impression of running a mile towards political office and then not having much idea about what to do with it, and even less idea about how to advocate to the electorate what it is doing.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,982
    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    Which is why the Lib Dems and the Greens are worth a healthy punt. The reality too is that Farage and others realise that healthy competition on the right actually means that the two parties cancel each other out
    Meanwhile the Russian allegations are not going away and several Tories are implicated too.
    For Starmer the situation is very far from hopeless when the right have crappy policies and crappy electoral tactics
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    La Belle End Alliance.

    😄

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,471
    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    Foxy said:

    La Belle End Alliance.

    😄

    Yay, somebody spotted my subtle pun/innuendo.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,484
    algarkirk said:

    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.

    It could be something in between: wishful thinking by donors (by and large they all see Reform as a vehicle for getting very wealth-friendly policies through, and if that’s done together with Tories than even better) and hearing positive but noncommittal noises from Farage and joining the dots, and then the journalist spinning it into something a bit more solid than the actual reports.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
    Perhaps they will manage that, but they still have, I suggest, no choice but to present one of the five options to the voter.
    BTW the fact that Farage's skills are limited does not stop him winning an election. Someone has to come first, and someone has to form a government. 'Governing brilliantly' skills are in short supply.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,471
    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,877
    algarkirk said:

    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.

    Two ways the FT story can be borked. One is that the FT is inaccurate in its reporting, the other is that they're accurately reporting what Farage said, and he's lying somewhere.

    Nigel has a problem. Most of his voters are ex-Conservatives who hate their old party. But I suspect his donors just want Nigel to put some lead back in the Tory pencil, as in Canada. Farage would need 100 or so ministers, and the most plausible source is the charred remains of the Conservative party.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.

    It could be something in between: wishful thinking by donors (by and large they all see Reform as a vehicle for getting very wealth-friendly policies through, and if that’s done together with Tories than even better) and hearing positive but noncommittal noises from Farage and joining the dots, and then the journalist spinning it into something a bit more solid than the actual reports.
    They can't both be true. They can of course both be false. Both statements are unqualified opposites:


    1) Nigel Farage has told donors he expects a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election,


    2) A false story in the FT tonight claims Reform would do a deal with the Tories.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,484
    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    I also think that propping up a government that has just had a major swing against it is very bad politics.

    So either an unstable minority government is more likely than an LD/Lab+/- Green coalition. Then a further election a year or so later.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    FIFA announce they have asked the Village People, who sing Trump’s adopted anthem YMCA, to perform at the World Cup draw on Friday. (Not a parody tweet).

    https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1996045364164788560
  • eekeek Posts: 32,080
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    I also think that propping up a government that has just had a major swing against it is very bad politics.

    So either an unstable minority government is more likely than an LD/Lab+/- Green coalition. Then a further election a year or so later.
    Unless Labour win outright they won't form the next Government. Which is going to make 2029 look like 2010 with added complexities that it will need more than 2 parties to get a majority.
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 84
    May 2025 and after winning 5 out of 6 council seats in places like Staffordshire, people start to predict a Reform landslide.

    Dec 2025 and after watching Reform councils in places like Kent and Cornwall, people start to change their minds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    I can't see an alliance happening before the next general election. Farage wants to destroy the Tories or at least merge with them via in effect a Reform takeover. If we get a hung parliament at the next general election and the Tories and Reform combined have a majority talks may happen but they are unlikely before.

    The only possible way there may be an alliance is if Jenrick replaced Kemi as Tory leader. Farage has spoken highly of Jenrick in the past and a deal could be done between them where the Tories only put up paper candidates where Reform were second to Labour at the last general election in return for Reform only putting up paper candidates in middle class seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs and Reform polled below their national voteshare
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    Indeed, a third of Tory voters would vote LD over Reform
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,042
    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    Stuartinromford said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.

    Two ways the FT story can be borked. One is that the FT is inaccurate in its reporting, the other is that they're accurately reporting what Farage said, and he's lying somewhere.

    Nigel has a problem. Most of his voters are ex-Conservatives who hate their old party. But I suspect his donors just want Nigel to put some lead back in the Tory pencil, as in Canada. Farage would need 100 or so ministers, and the most plausible source is the charred remains of the Conservative party.
    Only problem is in Canada since their Reform and Tories merged the new rightwing Conservative party of Canada has only won one majority this century and the Liberals have just won a 4th consecutive Canadian general election as the Liberals have managed to occupy the centre ground vacated by the more centrist now defunct Progressive Conservatives
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,698
    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,774
    Smart51 said:

    May 2025 and after winning 5 out of 6 council seats in places like Staffordshire, people start to predict a Reform landslide.

    Dec 2025 and after watching Reform councils in places like Kent and Cornwall, people start to change their minds.

    Which is exactly what we predicted. The best hope for avoiding a Reform majority was always going to be their performance in charge of big councils.

    Thankfully in my own council they seem to have been rather muted so far.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,857
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FIFA announce they have asked the Village People, who sing Trump’s adopted anthem YMCA, to perform at the World Cup draw on Friday. (Not a parody tweet).

    https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1996045364164788560

    At least that will give Infantino a new twist on his ridiculous speech last World Cup. “Today I feel American Indian, today I feel construction worker, today I feel motorcycle cop, today I feel soldier, today I feel cowboy, today I feel stereotyped gay biker.”

    Will they change the lyrics to “F,I,F,A” from YMCA?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    Sounds like the Tory approach to coalition
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,471
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    On the contrary, I reckon those newly elected LibDem MPs, sitting in previous Tory strongholds and facing some sort of combined Tory-Reform opponent would leap at the chance of having the other opposition parties giving them a free run
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,774
    The current Reform wave does have one important impact (for better or worse depending on your viewpoint) regarding our relationship with Europe.

    It makes all those calls for rejoining any big trading group (either the EU, EEA or EFTA) completely pointless. There is no.way any of them would touch the UK with a barge pole as long as there's any prospect of a future Reform Government.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,650
    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    I also think that propping up a government that has just had a major swing against it is very bad politics.

    So either an unstable minority government is more likely than an LD/Lab+/- Green coalition. Then a further election a year or so later.
    Unless Labour win outright they won't form the next Government. Which is going to make 2029 look like 2010 with added complexities that it will need more than 2 parties to get a majority.
    Too early to say. At 4 am on post election Friday suddenly everything can change as if the past doesn't matter. Labour with fewer than 325 seats could easily discover either that they are willing to try to form a minority government, or other parties or groups of MPs can suddenly discover than a bird of power in the hand is worth two in the bush, especially those for whom it may never come again.

    The dynamic interplay of scorpion, top predator, fear of power, arrogance and (let us not forget entirely) desire to serve are a toxic cocktail with unpredictable outcomes.

    2029 is already fascinating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    edited 8:40AM
    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    La Belle Alliance was what the Prussians called the Battle of Waterloo as a reference to The Seventh Coalition.

    The French called it the Battle of Mont-Saint-Jean.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,471
    edited 8:39AM
    Smart51 said:

    May 2025 and after winning 5 out of 6 council seats in places like Staffordshire, people start to predict a Reform landslide.

    Dec 2025 and after watching Reform councils in places like Kent and Cornwall, people start to change their minds.

    History suggests that local council scandals and **** ups rarely have national impact, but can swing seats within the council area itself, where people have been paying more attention. The LibDem success in Surrey constituencies, for example, surely owed a bit to the financial mess into which the Tories have driven its county council.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    A Reform-Tory alliance could well catapult the Lib Dems into official opposition, even on very low vote share. So it’s not clear those other parties would welcome what would look like pure Labour self preservation tactics.
    I also think that propping up a government that has just had a major swing against it is very bad politics.

    So either an unstable minority government is more likely than an LD/Lab+/- Green coalition. Then a further election a year or so later.
    Unless Labour win outright they won't form the next Government. Which is going to make 2029 look like 2010 with added complexities that it will need more than 2 parties to get a majority.
    No provided Labour plus LD have more seats than Tory plus Reform Labour will definitely form the next government. Provided Labour plus LD plus SNP plus Green plus Plaid have more seats than Tory plus Reform plus DUP plus TUV then Labour will also probably form the next government.

    Though if we do get a hung parliament the Tories and Reform might win a majority of seats in England but not UK wide
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,421
    boulay said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FIFA announce they have asked the Village People, who sing Trump’s adopted anthem YMCA, to perform at the World Cup draw on Friday. (Not a parody tweet).

    https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1996045364164788560

    At least that will give Infantino a new twist on his ridiculous speech last World Cup. “Today I feel American Indian, today I feel construction worker, today I feel motorcycle cop, today I feel soldier, today I feel cowboy, today I feel stereotyped gay biker.”

    Will they change the lyrics to “F,I,F,A” from YMCA?
    Isn't it "F,A,F,O"?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    A Tory decision not to stand in every seat in Great Britain (bar the speaker of course) would be seismic in political consequence. It could only happen as a result of very close alignment, which would both gain and lose votes. I don't think it will happen.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
    I have yet to be convinced that Reform has longevity beyond Farage, while the Conservatives have institutional heft
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
    Gladstone and Churchill were PM in their 80s though yes it is unusual. As it is in the US, no President before Biden was over 80
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,499
    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
    I agree. One of them will eat the other eventually, but the question is who will be doing the eating. I don’t expect this to happen until after the next GE.

    If I were to hazard a guess the Tories will retain the structure of the party but there’ll be reform influence on the branding (even the name). The biggest challenge the Tories have now is that the Conservative name carries significant baggage, not only for those who associate it with Thatcher but also now the very poor governance they provided 2016-2024.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,615
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    La Belle Alliance was what the Prussians called the Battle of Waterloo as a reference to The Seventh Coalition.
    Nah, it's named after the pub, Blücher met Wellington by the pub after the battle and remarked that it would make a good name for the battle, or something like that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
    Perhaps they will manage that, but they still have, I suggest, no choice but to present one of the five options to the voter.
    BTW the fact that Farage's skills are limited does not stop him winning an election. Someone has to come first, and someone has to form a government. 'Governing brilliantly' skills are in short supply.
    It’s option 5 of course

    “Appreciate the question, thank you Algar. As you know, I’ve just talked through our policy on space wombats. We have an extensive set of policies spelled out in our manifesto- clearly those are the best policies for the future of this country and so our entire focus is on convincing as many voters as possible to elect a Tory government on May 5”
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 325
    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    numbertwelve said:

    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
    I agree. One of them will eat the other eventually, but the question is who will be doing the eating. I don’t expect this to happen until after the next GE.

    If I were to hazard a guess the Tories will retain the structure of the party but there’ll be reform influence on the branding (even the name). The biggest challenge the Tories have now is that the Conservative name carries significant baggage, not only for those who associate it with Thatcher but also now the very poor governance they provided 2016-2024.
    Whatever the brand they opponents will label them Tories
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,651
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,157
    @financialtimes.com‬

    Shares in a US cryptocurrency miner backed by Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump shed a third of its value on Tuesday as early investors cashed out en masse at the end of a lock-up period.

    https://bsky.app/profile/financialtimes.com/post/3m6zqvwfkka2r
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
    I’d be curious to see a breakdown of that spending. Presumably lots of lawyers
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 325
    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    Labour hold a lot of seats, I doubt a conversation is going to go far with a sitting MP saying they should stand aside and not seek reelection so a non labour candidate could win.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,499
    edited 8:58AM
    StillWaters said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see an official merger between Tory and Reform .

    Not sure it suits either side . A decision to not stand in certain seats seems more probable .

    I can see them merging in the future, but not before the next election.

    Farage could be 70 at the election after next. The upcoming election is his last shot to govern, as a majority or minority partner, assuming that's what he wants to do. British politicians just don't carry on through their 70s like American ones do.

    I suspect the political right coalesces around a single party soon after he leaves the scene.
    I agree. One of them will eat the other eventually, but the question is who will be doing the eating. I don’t expect this to happen until after the next GE.

    If I were to hazard a guess the Tories will retain the structure of the party but there’ll be reform influence on the branding (even the name). The biggest challenge the Tories have now is that the Conservative name carries significant baggage, not only for those who associate it with Thatcher but also now the very poor governance they provided 2016-2024.
    Whatever the brand they opponents will label them Tories
    I agree, but I don’t think that will stop something like this happening anyway. It’s been a long time since one of our major parties went through a significant image change (New Labour probably the last. I’m not sure I’d count Cameron’s tree logo relaunch as that was a much softer ‘reset’). We’re probably overdue one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,986
    StillWaters said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
    Perhaps they will manage that, but they still have, I suggest, no choice but to present one of the five options to the voter.
    BTW the fact that Farage's skills are limited does not stop him winning an election. Someone has to come first, and someone has to form a government. 'Governing brilliantly' skills are in short supply.
    It’s option 5 of course

    “Appreciate the question, thank you Algar. As you know, I’ve just talked through our policy on space wombats. We have an extensive set of policies spelled out in our manifesto- clearly those are the best policies for the future of this country and so our entire focus is on convincing as many voters as possible to elect a Tory government on May 5”
    That works fine in the old politics. They may have to use that tactic, but everyone would laugh. There are no good options for the Tories as things stand. Of course they have three years to work on becoming electable.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,337
    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just to note, though it doesn't seem to matter much in these days, that either the FT story, or the Farage Tweet is what Shakespeare would call 'the lie direct'. I wonder which.

    It could be something in between: wishful thinking by donors (by and large they all see Reform as a vehicle for getting very wealth-friendly policies through, and if that’s done together with Tories than even better) and hearing positive but noncommittal noises from Farage and joining the dots, and then the journalist spinning it into something a bit more solid than the actual reports.
    Yes, but it’s more likely that Farage is just lying.

    Maybe Farage will say he never directly lied to anyone, like he “never directly racially abused anyone”.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,566
    What did the Tories do in 2019 that betrayed Nigel's trust?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,964
    algarkirk said:

    StillWaters said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
    Perhaps they will manage that, but they still have, I suggest, no choice but to present one of the five options to the voter.
    BTW the fact that Farage's skills are limited does not stop him winning an election. Someone has to come first, and someone has to form a government. 'Governing brilliantly' skills are in short supply.
    It’s option 5 of course

    “Appreciate the question, thank you Algar. As you know, I’ve just talked through our policy on space wombats. We have an extensive set of policies spelled out in our manifesto- clearly those are the best policies for the future of this country and so our entire focus is on convincing as many voters as possible to elect a Tory government on May 5”
    That works fine in the old politics. They may have to use that tactic, but everyone would laugh. There are no good options for the Tories as things stand. Of course they have three years to work on becoming electable.

    “Would you want to get into bed with Farage?”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    La Belle Alliance was what the Prussians called the Battle of Waterloo as a reference to The Seventh Coalition.
    Nah, it's named after the pub, Blücher met Wellington by the pub after the battle and remarked that it would make a good name for the battle, or something like that.
    It shows that UK’s place is at the heart of Europe as part of a vast alliance (giving the French a good hiding.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,471
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    La Belle Alliance was what the Prussians called the Battle of Waterloo as a reference to The Seventh Coalition.

    The French called it the Battle of Mont-Saint-Jean.
    Because Wellington and Blucher met near the already-so-named inn immediately after the battle and, yes, as a reference to the coalition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What did the Tories do in 2019 that betrayed Nigel's trust?

    The Boriswave.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,475
    CumberlandGap said:

    IanB2 said:

    If it did come to pass, I wonder whether it might force Labour to finally move off its usual stance of asserting divine right to stand in every seat, and enter discussions with other centre-left parties?

    Labour hold a lot of seats, I doubt a conversation is going to go far with a sitting MP saying they should stand aside and not seek reelection so a non labour candidate could win.
    I don’t think any sort of official pre-election pact between Reform and the Tories is a good idea for either party. However, I think TSE is wrong to suggest a possible retaliatory alliance on the Left as a reason for it being a bad idea. Indeed, if it led to Labour going down that road, that might lead to all sorts of unintended consequences (and would also be very funny for the reason you give).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,622
    edited 9:07AM
    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,337
    StillWaters said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    We won't know what alliances are possible until after the next General election; all we will know is what parties say before the election. The Tories face an unenviable choice of what to present to the public, and have no choice but to present something. None are good.

    They are:

    Yes, deal with Reform possible.
    No. Not possible.
    Say nothing.
    Say both they will and they won't.
    Say the question doesn't arise because they are going to win anyway.

    Or, present policies which appeal to the electorate (OK, bit of question begging there), and challenge Reform on their nebulous/incoherent programme ?

    The impression I get from the Farage story is that he's not really prepared to do the hard graft of preparing for government.
    He's a very effective campaigner, but that is perhaps the limit of his political skills.
    Perhaps they will manage that, but they still have, I suggest, no choice but to present one of the five options to the voter.
    BTW the fact that Farage's skills are limited does not stop him winning an election. Someone has to come first, and someone has to form a government. 'Governing brilliantly' skills are in short supply.
    It’s option 5 of course

    “Appreciate the question, thank you Algar. As you know, I’ve just talked through our policy on space wombats. We have an extensive set of policies spelled out in our manifesto- clearly those are the best policies for the future of this country and so our entire focus is on convincing as many voters as possible to elect a Tory government on May 5”
    I don’t think any of the parties, to be honest, are doing enough on the space wombat question. I would vote for a party that put forward clearly thought through policy in this area. It’s all just net wombat immigration is too high or space wombats will increase productivity without explaining how.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,337
    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
    I’d be curious to see a breakdown of that spending. Presumably lots of lawyers
    The breakdown is in the BBC article linked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    'Putin rejects peace deal on Ukraine after US talks as Nato foreign ministers meet'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwypq7xjvdqt
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    Is it beyond the wit of the political parties to get together to buy off Farage with a grand title that a) pumps up his ego b) pays a tidy sum whilst c) requiring him to do bugger all work?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    CumberlandGap said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
    I don't think incompetence in office will hit Reform hard enough. A recent example:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-durham-county-council-darren-grimes-400775/

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is it beyond the wit of the political parties to get together to buy off Farage with a grand title that a) pumps up his ego b) pays a tidy sum whilst c) requiring him to do bugger all work?

    What, like Prime Minister, in the Johnson style?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,414
    edited 9:11AM
    Good morning

    There is absolutely no way Badenoch or the conservatives should tie themselves into a hard right Trump loving nasty piece of work that is Farage

    Indeed Badenoch attacked Farage recently, and aa she has attracted 6 million of donations to Farage's 2 million maybe it is he who is panicking

    He and reform have nothing to offer other than discourse and division

    Badenoch is beginning to be heard and she needs her own district policies and frankly to ignore Farage and concentrate on redeeming the conservative brand over the next 3 years

    There is time and the ' green shoots of recovery' are showing made easier by the disaster that is Starmer and Reeves
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    HYUFD said:

    'Putin rejects peace deal on Ukraine after US talks as Nato foreign ministers meet'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwypq7xjvdqt

    Time for a NATO (or failing that, a Coalition of the Willing) No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. End Putin's terrorism of the Ukrainian population.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,622
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is it beyond the wit of the political parties to get together to buy off Farage with a grand title that a) pumps up his ego b) pays a tidy sum whilst c) requiring him to do bugger all work?

    That's what the House of Lords is for.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,651
    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
    I’d be curious to see a breakdown of that spending. Presumably lots of lawyers
    Indeed, which is why the whole adversarial approach was the wrong way to go about this inquiry in the first place.

    By way of reference, a quick bit of googling says that the three main transport investigation branches (AAIB, RAIB, MAIB) have between them some 130 staff and a budget somewhere around £30m per year.

    Half a billion would also pay for around 1,000 Flamingo missiles for the Ukrainians, quite literally blowing up the money is better value!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    edited 9:16AM
    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    Though the seat had been Republican held since 1980 and the margin of victory for the GOP candidate was the smallest in the seat for the Republican victor since 1982 when the Dems won the House comfortably which suggests the Democrats will at least retake the House in next year's midterms. Though clearly no post Watergate style landslide yet, indeed Trump's endorsement of Van Epps probably helped him scrape home given Tennessee voted 64% for Trump to just 34% for Harris last year
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    Its a pretty flamboyant piece of gerrymandering. This is how Nashville is split between 3 districts:


  • TazTaz Posts: 22,707
    Foxy said:

    CumberlandGap said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
    I don't think incompetence in office will hit Reform hard enough. A recent example:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-durham-county-council-darren-grimes-400775/

    That situation would have applied whoever ran the county. There is a consultation on the budget tomorrow and the details have been published on the council site. Reform have made some savings but the demands on councils and budgets across the board are going up. That’s not incompetence it’s a broken funding model for local govt.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Is it beyond the wit of the political parties to get together to buy off Farage with a grand title that a) pumps up his ego b) pays a tidy sum whilst c) requiring him to do bugger all work?

    What, like Prime Minister, in the Johnson style?
    Too expensive on the wallpaper.

    Maybe Special Reporteur to the Court of St. Basil in Moscow. Then nobody needs to pretend to look the other way as to where his sympathies (and finances) lie.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,707
    La belle epoche !!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,615
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, La Belle Alliance was an inn or tavern, which Farage would probably like, and not an actual alliance, which he may not. It’s near the Waterloo battlefield but got its name prior to the battle, believed to be because when the publican died, his widow married a series of men each of whom also died, until she ended up married to the new innkeeper.

    La Belle Alliance was what the Prussians called the Battle of Waterloo as a reference to The Seventh Coalition.
    Nah, it's named after the pub, Blücher met Wellington by the pub after the battle and remarked that it would make a good name for the battle, or something like that.
    It shows that UK’s place is at the heart of Europe as part of a vast alliance (giving the French a good hiding.)
    I thought we ought to rename St Pancras Station "La Belle Alliance" after relocating the Eurostar terminal from Waterloo. At the time, we could have claimed it referred to the EU. Whoever decided that trains from Paris would terminate at Waterloo was a genius. Also, you could travel from Waterloo to Waterloo with only one change.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,622
    The person added the Reform leader had said such a deal could only be done on his terms, in part because Farage felt betrayed after the pact he made with the Tories at the 2019 election.

    What pact ?

    The Brexit Party had to stand down its candidates in 2019 because the candidates were themselves standing down by their own choice.

    Much to Farage's annoyance as he wanted to stop Brexit from happening.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    CumberlandGap said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
    I don't think incompetence in office will hit Reform hard enough. A recent example:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-durham-county-council-darren-grimes-400775/

    That situation would have applied whoever ran the county. There is a consultation on the budget tomorrow and the details have been published on the council site. Reform have made some savings but the demands on councils and budgets across the board are going up. That’s not incompetence it’s a broken funding model for local govt.
    Maybe. But it still leaves Reform heading up the shit-sandwich buffet...

    What is Reform's policy for mending the broken funding model for local government? 3 words: Close. Things. Down.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,615
    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    Its a pretty flamboyant piece of gerrymandering. This is how Nashville is split between 3 districts:


    Isn't the main point of gerrymandering to ensure that very few seats are in play, so reducing the need to campaign everywhere else? Which is why both parties support it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,192
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    CumberlandGap said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
    I don't think incompetence in office will hit Reform hard enough. A recent example:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-durham-county-council-darren-grimes-400775/

    That situation would have applied whoever ran the county. There is a consultation on the budget tomorrow and the details have been published on the council site. Reform have made some savings but the demands on councils and budgets across the board are going up. That’s not incompetence it’s a broken funding model for local govt.
    Yes, but it does expose all the Reform lies about how they would freeze or cut council tax by cutting wasteful expenditure.

    The problem of ignoring reality is that it won't ignore you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,622
    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    Its a pretty flamboyant piece of gerrymandering. This is how Nashville is split between 3 districts:


    Nashville West and
    Nashville East and
    Nashville South and

    One side supports cracking while the other side supports packing.

    Or one side supports packing while the other side supports cracking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,651
    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    The Dems did have a really terrible candidate in TN7.

    She’s in favour of defunding police, providing sanctuary to foreign criminals etc, and said previously that she hated Nashville and country music, before standing in a district that contained half of, err, Nashville.

    Yes the Dems will take back the House, but if their primary process produces fringe candidates in swing seats it could be closer than expected. The Senate will likely stay GOP but with a reduced majority, and we’ll have two years of total gridlock in Congress.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,398
    Is Kemi Badenoch Blucher in this analogy ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    edited 9:20AM
    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    Its a pretty flamboyant piece of gerrymandering. This is how Nashville is split between 3 districts:


    Plus, the Republicans dug out some, er, unwise quotes from the Democrat candidate about how she hated Nashville! With a better candidate, it could have been significantly closer. That said, the Republicans had to spend a shedload of money to get a poor result. They can't do that everywhere next November.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Kemi Badenoch Blucher in this analogy ?

    Hopefully not Ney
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is it beyond the wit of the political parties to get together to buy off Farage with a grand title that a) pumps up his ego b) pays a tidy sum whilst c) requiring him to do bugger all work?

    The title ‘The Duke of York’ is currently vacant, just saying.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,243
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: not a shock but a shame to see Tsunoda's F1 career seemingly end. Lindblad to Racing Bulls and Hadjar promoted/demoted to Red Bull.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5y0rlx05l4o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,909
    edited 9:26AM
    Sandpit said:

    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    The Dems did have a really terrible candidate in TN7.

    She’s in favour of defunding police, providing sanctuary to foreign criminals etc, and said previously that she hated Nashville and country music, before standing in a district that contained half of, err, Nashville.

    Yes the Dems will take back the House, but if their primary process produces fringe candidates in swing seats it could be closer than expected. The Senate will likely stay GOP but with a reduced majority, and we’ll have two years of total gridlock in Congress.
    Yet the Dems still got their highest voteshare in TN7 since 1982 despite a terrible candidate and indeed Trump had to intervene at the last moment on Truth Social to get his MAGA voters out to vote for Van Epps to ensure he scraped over the line.

    The House therefore is almost certainly going Dem next year, if the GOP are stupid enough to nominate Paxton over Cornyn in Texas the Dems could scrape home in the Senate too as polls show Paxton could be beaten by the Dems in Texas while Maine and NC are also likely Dem pickups and Ohio looks close. The Dems need 4 net gains to retake the Senate
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,066
    edited 9:23AM
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: not a shock but a shame to see Tsunoda's F1 career seemingly end. Lindblad to Racing Bulls and Hadjar promoted/demoted to Red Bull.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5y0rlx05l4o

    I’ve always thought Tsunoda was overrated compared to his ego.

    For the LOLs he should crash into the back of Verstappen on Sunday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,845
    Someone's Waterloo, then, but whose?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,243
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: not a shock but a shame to see Tsunoda's F1 career seemingly end. Lindblad to Racing Bulls and Hadjar promoted/demoted to Red Bull.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5y0rlx05l4o

    I’ve always thought Tsunoda was overrated compared to his ego.

    For the LOLs he should crash into the back of Verstappen on Sunday.
    He's not top tier but certainly decent enough. The 2nd seat has chewed up the likes of Gasly, Albon, and Perez, all of them good drivers.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,805
    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
    I’d be curious to see a breakdown of that spending. Presumably lots of lawyers
    There can be value in the inquiry. But ~£500m would buy a good chunk of vaccine/testing research or public health preparedness/more fit for purpose modelling tools (e.g. some of the existing models re-written in a maintainable way by software developers).

    Or, even, a couple of bags of PPE from a Tory donor!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,157
    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    If that swing was replicated Nationwide, 42 Republicans would lose their seats
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,982
    Smart51 said:

    May 2025 and after winning 5 out of 6 council seats in places like Staffordshire, people start to predict a Reform landslide.

    Dec 2025 and after watching Reform councils in places like Kent and Cornwall, people start to change their minds.

    Also more questions being asked about were this "Reform wave" came from...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,243
    Selebian said:

    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Government racks up £100m bill responding to Covid inquiry
    ...
    This is on top of the £192m spent by the inquiry itself
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9yepzl1rjo

    The good news for lawyers is the inquiry still has another two years to run.

    That’s absolutely crazy.

    Pandemics, like wars, are indeed expensive, but to spend what’s going to end up being close to half a *BILLION* on the inquiry, while learning very little that wasn’t known already about how to handle the next pandemic..?
    I’d be curious to see a breakdown of that spending. Presumably lots of lawyers
    There can be value in the inquiry. But ~£500m would buy a good chunk of vaccine/testing research or public health preparedness/more fit for purpose modelling tools (e.g. some of the existing models re-written in a maintainable way by software developers).

    Or, even, a couple of bags of PPE from a Tory donor!
    Maybe we'll get an inquiry into the inquiry flinging so much money at lawyers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,622
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    another_richard said:

    An unimpressive result for the Dems in Tennessee.

    Which suggests that Trump isn't as historically unpopular as has been claimed and that the Dems are neither enthusing either their own or swing voters.

    Now the Dems will still gain the House next year but the pattern of failing governments and congressional gridlock looks set to continue.

    The Dems did have a really terrible candidate in TN7.

    She’s in favour of defunding police, providing sanctuary to foreign criminals etc, and said previously that she hated Nashville and country music, before standing in a district that contained half of, err, Nashville.

    Yes the Dems will take back the House, but if their primary process produces fringe candidates in swing seats it could be closer than expected. The Senate will likely stay GOP but with a reduced majority, and we’ll have two years of total gridlock in Congress.
    Yet the Dems still got their highest voteshare in TN7 since 1982 despite a terrible candidate and indeed Trump had to intervene at the last moment on Truth Social to get his MAGA voters out to vote for Van Epps to ensure he scraped over the line.

    The House therefore is almost certainly going Dem next year, if the GOP are stupid enough to nominate Paxton over Cornyn the Dems could scrape home in the Senate too as polls show Paxton could be beaten by the Dems in Texas while Maine and NC are also likely Dem pickups and Ohio looks close. The Dems need 4 net gains to retake the Senate
    There have been boundary changes in TN7 with the GOP vote dropping 10% between 2020 and 2022:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee's_7th_congressional_district
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,707
    MarqueeMark said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    CumberlandGap said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Isn't this just Farage doing what he always does? I think he enjoys the limelight but would run a mile from political office.

    It’s always easier to be in permanent opposition, able to suggest solutions and ideas that never have to be actually implemented.

    Unfortunately the current government appears to have arrived with no ideas, and the previous government had run out of them.
    As many of their newly elected councillors running an administration, they’ll be discovering that governing is hard hard hard. A series of spinning plates full of shit, surrounded by electric fans.
    I don't think incompetence in office will hit Reform hard enough. A recent example:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-durham-county-council-darren-grimes-400775/

    That situation would have applied whoever ran the county. There is a consultation on the budget tomorrow and the details have been published on the council site. Reform have made some savings but the demands on councils and budgets across the board are going up. That’s not incompetence it’s a broken funding model for local govt.
    Maybe. But it still leaves Reform heading up the shit-sandwich buffet...

    What is Reform's policy for mending the broken funding model for local government? 3 words: Close. Things. Down.
    Nope

    It’s the same as any other local
    Govt

    More.govt.money
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,764
    HYUFD said:

    'Putin rejects peace deal on Ukraine after US talks as Nato foreign ministers meet'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwypq7xjvdqt

    ...as he losses another 1,200 troops yesterday.

    The ability of Mother Russia to absorb carnage is a remarkable feature of its DNA.
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