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La Belle Alliance didn’t last very long – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,047
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If juries are to give verdicts on guilt then repurpose juries to decide sentencing:

    https://news.sky.com/story/nursery-worker-45-pleads-guilty-to-26-serious-sexual-offences-against-children-13478610

    I don't think burning the accused to death at the stake is within the range of their powers.
    He will be rightly killed in prison with any luck like Ian Watkins was.
    Quite likely but this is another failure of the criminal justice system if it cannot keep inmates (and staff) safe from attacks or gang or Islamist recruitment (often as a sort of protection racket against violence).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,169
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perhaps it ought not to come as a surprise that a friend of Epstein sees Russia as "devoutly Christian".

    Steve Bannon says the US should ally with Russia:

    “Russia is a devoutly Christian nation and was our true ally in WWII.”

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1995893766863892742

    The end of the sentence left hanging, but pretty obviously “…not Britain”.

    Bizarre though when a. The Soviet Union was the ally, not Russia, and b. It was a communist state that outlawed organised religion.
    It is not bizarre. It is a collection of the worlds richest billionaires working out how they can share the most power. Religion and politics are tools not objectives.
    It's still rank stupidity, even in that context.
    The voice of experience:

    https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1995051199259635921
    The Wall Street Journal alleges that the real motivation behind Trump’s eagerness to force Ukraine into an ugly surrender is the idea that a lot of people close to him can make a lot of money doing business and deals in Russia.

    If this is true, beyond the disgusting morality of this and the huge geopolitical risks that it creates, none of these people salivating over their future riches are going to make a penny, and perhaps do a lot worse.

    I was once the largest foreign investor in Russia and I can say with certainty that the Russians aren’t going to let anyone profit in any way. They will talk nice at the outset to attract the investment, but once it’s there, they will steal, defraud, arrest, torture or even kill to make sure that no American makes any money. I’ve seen it so many times it’s almost universal.

    So, this shocking initiative is not only terrible policy, it’s spectacularly stupid business.
    Perhaps. But on the other hand, Bill Browder wasn't besties with a US President who saw his office as a means to self-enrichment, and foreign policy as a way to settle personal scores.

    When American investors have the US military at their back the outcome might be somewhat different, although as mafia boss fallings-out go, that would be epic.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,965
    Nigelb said:

    Perhaps it ought not to come as a surprise that a friend of Epstein sees Russia as "devoutly Christian".

    Steve Bannon says the US should ally with Russia:

    “Russia is a devoutly Christian nation and was our true ally in WWII.”

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1995893766863892742

    I swear to God they are going to end up invading us... :(
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    Always said HSBC are a joke of an institution who have, inter alia, been the bankers for the IRGC, drug dealers, and other criminals.

    HSBC snubs George Osborne to name ex-KPMG partner as chairman

    Former chancellor misses out as the bank hands the reins to interim chair Brendan Nelson


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/03/hsbc-snubs-george-osborne-appoint-ex-kpmg-partner-chairman/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,032

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If juries are to give verdicts on guilt then repurpose juries to decide sentencing:

    https://news.sky.com/story/nursery-worker-45-pleads-guilty-to-26-serious-sexual-offences-against-children-13478610

    I don't think burning the accused to death at the stake is within the range of their powers.
    I'm wondering what to make of that post. Are you seriously suggesting that burning at the stake should be an acceptable punishment in this case? Or any case, indeed?
    I think @DavidL is pointing out that

    - a jury would might want that punishment inflicted
    - They can’t have it

    Sentencing is extremely constrained by the guidelines. You can find them online.

    You can work out the sentencing yourself, if you like. They are written in fairly simple English and generally don’t require arcane legal knowledge to understand.

    They are a part of the justice system that I agree with - public, understandable and quite reasonable, really.

    And if you read sentencing remarks for various cases, they are peppered with references to the sentencing guidelines - severity classification, mitigation (if any) etc.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,921
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If juries are to give verdicts on guilt then repurpose juries to decide sentencing:

    https://news.sky.com/story/nursery-worker-45-pleads-guilty-to-26-serious-sexual-offences-against-children-13478610

    I don't think burning the accused to death at the stake is within the range of their powers.
    He will be rightly killed in prison with any luck like Ian Watkins was.
    No, criminals should serve the sentence imposed by the court not the mob and those who killed Watkins have of course been charged with murder even if many won't be too upset by their actions
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,081
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perhaps it ought not to come as a surprise that a friend of Epstein sees Russia as "devoutly Christian".

    Steve Bannon says the US should ally with Russia:

    “Russia is a devoutly Christian nation and was our true ally in WWII.”

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1995893766863892742

    I swear to God they are going to end up invading us... :(
    Are you Canadian or a Greenlander ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,921
    edited 2:13PM

    Always said HSBC are a joke of an institution who have, inter alia, been the bankers for the IRGC, drug dealers, and other criminals.

    HSBC snubs George Osborne to name ex-KPMG partner as chairman

    Former chancellor misses out as the bank hands the reins to interim chair Brendan Nelson


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/03/hsbc-snubs-george-osborne-appoint-ex-kpmg-partner-chairman/

    One of the few banks that avoided a bailout or being nationalised or needing a credit guarantee loan in 2008 though. Brendan Nelson is a qualified Chartered Accountant with lots of City experience so probably looks the best choice. Osborne has his Chancellor experience and a few board roles but studied History not Economics and does not have an MBA, or banking or accountancy qualifications
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,081
    I have to admit I was previously unaware of the existence of Sabrina Carpenter.

    this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.
    3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2025
    76.2M Views

    https://x.com/SabrinaAnnLynn/status/1995876972405420114
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,196

    malcolmg said:

    In case you've not seen last night's football and the greatest overhead kick goal in history, scored by Cristian Romero for Spurs.

    https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/1995980346756632963

    Mctominay goal was far superior to that by a mile

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3dscBHT-kI
    McTominay’s goal wasn’t even the best goal in that game.
    I've checked out the Romero goal and can confirm that @malcolmg is correct: McTominay's goal was far superior.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,477
    Nigelb said:

    I have to admit I was previously unaware of the existence of Sabrina Carpenter.

    this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.
    3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2025
    76.2M Views

    https://x.com/SabrinaAnnLynn/status/1995876972405420114

    You were better off not knowing who she is.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 342

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    OT - Clearly Farage expects the Cons to come to him on bended knee begging for the said alliance. No Ref oppo to sitting MPs in return for Ref getting a free run everywhere else for example. Seems unlikely. A much better plan to just take over the Cons - but that seems more likely after the next GE than before it. Farage needs things to happen fast - it won't get better for him and he may end up operating from a much weaker position.

    Only Jenrick if he replaced Kemi would even consider a formal Tory and Reform pact pre GE and Cleverly and Stride might not even back Farage to be PM post GE if a hung parliament but abstain
    Scenario 1:
    Kemi steps down before next general (60% chance?)
    Jenrick replaces her (75% chance)
    jenrick succeeds in negotiating a deal with Farage that leads to a Reformed Conservative Party going into the election (20%)
    Result - 400 seats to the Reformed Conservative Party. 100 seats to LD - the official opposition.
    Chance of it happening 60%x75%x20% about 10%?

    Scenario 2:
    Kemi does not step before next election, or if she does, Cleverley is the next leader (50% chance?)
    Tory leader succeeds in negotiating a deal with Farage that leads to a Reformed Conservative Party going into the election (zero chance)
    Result - 150-250 seats to Reform, 50-150 seats to Con, 100-250 seats to Lab, 75-100 seats to LD, 10-50 seats to Green.
    Chance of it happening about 50%?

    Scenario 3:
    Kemi steps down before next general (60% chance?)
    Jenrick replaces her (75% chance)
    jenrick does not succeed in negotiating a deal with Farage that leads to a Reformed Conservative Party going into the election (80%)
    Result - 150-250 seats to Reform, 50-150 seats to Con, 100-250 seats to Lab, 75-100 seats to LD, 10-50 seats to Green.
    Chance of it happening about 40%?
    The chances of Kemi stepping down are dropping rapidly. She's already got the Tories regularly ahead of Labour. If she can start reducing the gap to Reform, she'll be kept on.
    In the last 20 polls on the Wikipedia page, the Tories are ahead of Labour on 5, tied on 3, and behind on 12.
    How about the last 10?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,081

    malcolmg said:

    In case you've not seen last night's football and the greatest overhead kick goal in history, scored by Cristian Romero for Spurs.

    https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/1995980346756632963

    Mctominay goal was far superior to that by a mile

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3dscBHT-kI
    McTominay’s goal wasn’t even the best goal in that game.
    I've checked out the Romero goal and can confirm that @malcolmg is correct: McTominay's goal was far superior.
    I believe TSE was engaging in mild sarcasm.
    Though it's football, so WDIK ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    edited 2:16PM

    malcolmg said:

    In case you've not seen last night's football and the greatest overhead kick goal in history, scored by Cristian Romero for Spurs.

    https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/1995980346756632963

    Mctominay goal was far superior to that by a mile

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3dscBHT-kI
    McTominay’s goal wasn’t even the best goal in that game.
    I've checked out the Romero goal and can confirm that @malcolmg is correct: McTominay's goal was far superior.
    Nah, the beauty of the Romero goal is that he shins it and it dribbles in.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,032
    Navy stuff

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/minister-rules-out-two-power-standard-for-royal-navy/

    So presumably, by ruling out a return to the Two Power Standard (RN bigger than the next 2 navies), we are on the successive standard of having a fleet 60% bigger than the next naval power.

    So 18 aircraft carriers are required.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,056

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sometimes it takes a post to realise a great truth. Barty is the anti-Doug. Or Doug is the anti-Barty if you prefer. While Barty's libertarianism suggests local govt should be abolished in favour of national, I believe the opposite. If I were arrogant enough to draft a proposal for a well organised society, I'd posit that municipalities should be the primary unit of political organisation, rather than nation-states. I genuinely despise nationalism and would love a political culture rooted in citizenship and civic engagement rather than ethnic or cultural identity. Even so-called "civic nationalists" can't completely escape the taint of at least one of those. Usually both.

    I daydream that democracy moves back to the original idea of its classical founders - people would participate directly in face-to-face assemblies at the municipal level to make decisions about local affairs, moving beyond representative democracy toward genuine participatory self-governance. I think representative democracy is cracking up and the only way to save democracy in any meaningful sense is to move back to toward genuine participation. Yeah, theoretically you could do that on a national basis, like a Eurovision vote, endless referenda, but are people really participating, rather than just observing.

    Municipalities could form voluntary confederations to coordinate on larger issues while maintaining local autonomy. Economic life would be reorganised around municipal ownership and cooperative enterprises making the local community the fundamental unit of political life while connecting these communities through horizontal networks rather than vertical state structures.

    It'll never happen but, hey, it's my ha'penny's worth on how to save the world.

    Municipal corporations were a part of the bedrock of Britain's Industrial Revolution.

    And in the new millennium, it's notable that outside of the capital (which hoards capital to itself), the strongest growth is in the cities with strongest devolved powers.

    Barty's bastardised mashup of centralism and libertarianism has no successful real world analogues.
    As a self proclaimed soft Libertarian, although not of the Propertarian bent that Bart seems to espouse I have to say I very much like Doug's idea of bottom up governance. Only those things that cannot be achieved at the lower tier should be elevated to a higher tier.

    My only difference is that in this system I still see a place for the Nation State to provide the legal and security framework within which it all happens. That is not something I think can be done effectively or democratically at a Supra national level.

    But most decisions being made at a municipal, town or parish level is very much something to be aspired to.
    Except UK is full of retired NIMBYs, who are much easier to fight on a national policy level (not that anyone is) than a local one. I think that's a lot of where Bart's coming from.
    The ideologically libertarian way to put this is that if you need the government to make rules, they should be objective and generalized. If you need a lot of local knowledge to make decisions properly, you're probably micromanaging too much.

    A practical way to see this distinction is if you compare Japan, which has planning rules but they're mostly like "if there is a slope, your building must be at least twice as far from the slope as the height of the slope, and this will be checked by a man with a tape measure", with Britain, which has rules like "you should not be out of character with the general vibe of the place, and a committee of elderly people will tell you whether what you want to build does that or not".
    A new build near me. The back garden will have a similar drop! The site slopes badly and the original plan was to use the slope to build 'hobbit houses' part built into the slope. Someone must have pointed out, they'd never sell so they have been removed from the plan.

    Locals had been fighting developments here for decades based on the poor layout of the site and the lack of capacity at the sewage treatment plan but this was overruled by the council. Hope those at the bottom of the slope have good drainage as the runoffs here when it rains can be biblical.



  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,487
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I have to admit I was previously unaware of the existence of Sabrina Carpenter.

    this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.
    3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2025
    76.2M Views

    https://x.com/SabrinaAnnLynn/status/1995876972405420114

    You were better off not knowing who she is.
    She has a handful of pleasant enough singalong songs. My youngest daughter recently introduced me to her work.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,047
    Nigelb said:

    I have to admit I was previously unaware of the existence of Sabrina Carpenter.

    this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.
    3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2025
    76.2M Views

    https://x.com/SabrinaAnnLynn/status/1995876972405420114

    She's a popular beat combo, m'lud.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,081
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I have to admit I was previously unaware of the existence of Sabrina Carpenter.

    this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.
    3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2025
    76.2M Views

    https://x.com/SabrinaAnnLynn/status/1995876972405420114

    You were better off not knowing who she is.
    72m views for a tweet telling the White House to eff off is a laudable achievement.

    The MAGA social media game isn't what it was.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,940
    Enjoyed this bit of economic history:
    https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/this-is-how-you-get-nazis

    Tl:dr -> austerity not hyperinflation led to the rise of the Nazis/far right.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,159
    Six months ago, Kemi was as unpopular as Sir Keir


  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,056

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perhaps it ought not to come as a surprise that a friend of Epstein sees Russia as "devoutly Christian".

    Steve Bannon says the US should ally with Russia:

    “Russia is a devoutly Christian nation and was our true ally in WWII.”

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1995893766863892742

    The end of the sentence left hanging, but pretty obviously “…not Britain”.

    Bizarre though when a. The Soviet Union was the ally, not Russia, and b. It was a communist state that outlawed organised religion.
    It is not bizarre. It is a collection of the worlds richest billionaires working out how they can share the most power. Religion and politics are tools not objectives.
    Are they different? Surely religion is a political construct where those interpreting 'the word' hold the power over the adherents. Any that dare challenge that power are dealt with.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,472
    ..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,196
    Why do they draw the Rugby World Cup so early? It's nearly two years away, the team rankings could be very different in October 2027 to the seedings used for the draw.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,389

    Always said HSBC are a joke of an institution who have, inter alia, been the bankers for the IRGC, drug dealers, and other criminals.

    HSBC snubs George Osborne to name ex-KPMG partner as chairman

    Former chancellor misses out as the bank hands the reins to interim chair Brendan Nelson


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/03/hsbc-snubs-george-osborne-appoint-ex-kpmg-partner-chairman/

    But it turns out they do have some standards.
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