The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have eard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
I bet it has not drawn criticism from all across the political spectrum, that's not even the first example I've seen on that point.
There seems to have been a genuine effort to advance a more racialised picture of citizenship this past year, presumably there is a large target audience for it. Over time I expect it to become more and more prevalent, if less obviously, as defence of the 'right' people no matter what they say seems to be popular. A lot of 'said in the wrong way but real concern' kind of thing.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
I don't know who said it first but "Once a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" seems to apply here.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
But it's the truth? It's reality that's racist.
Reform has wriggled out of it by saying British citizens and (afaik) both parents working? I don't think that would apply to the sort of family envisaged in that style of campaign.
There's something of a crisis of confidence in Reform as the Tories' confidence grows. I don't think its the racism or Russia stories - it dates to before that. It's grappling with the enormity of the task ahead, and not having the depth of talent there to bring to bear on the situation. And Nigel's great difficulty with trusting anyone except from Zia Yusuf (who I think is brilliant).
A bold, confident Reform would have batted away the two negative stories, just driven through it and maybe lost a wing mirror but still motored on. This questioning Reform seems more reflective and muted, and vulnerable. We will see if they recover their mojo.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
Quite right.
Most people are fed up with the constant race-baiting that passes for political debate online. I rather fear that MaxPB has entered his Plato years.
Not really, I think it's the opposite. People are fed up of weak liberals covering up for "protected" people. The Tories would do well to capture that and win votes back from Reform.
As a conservative I do not want votes from racists but to make the argument, which is perfectly possible, without playing the race card
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
But it's the truth? It's reality that's racist.
Just checked the stats and it's actually more representative than you might think - 70% white, for about 80% population. So I would strongly advise the Conservatives not to do anything like that all.
(Funny how you had already made such an assumption though).
250,000 "White British" v 30,000 "Asian Pakistani". No doubt more representation in minority groups, but if the Conservatives used it on a poster it would absolutely insane. Stick to the economics/tax.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
Yes, I think that's what I would do too. For accuracy's sake, I think it's more like £60k without any disabilities, and that would have to be in central London with £30k of that going to a landlord, which is mental. Only 4 bedrooms too.
I still think the fuel duty thing is more likely to get people pissed off because Labour don't have an available defence there (for the child limit you have child poverty, which no one likes, and benefit cap). Gambling tax has gone down very well.
I highly doubt that fuel duty will ever go up during this parliament, they'll keep kicking the can down the road and load up EV per mile charges to make up the difference.
Because when push comes to shove none of them actually give a damn about the apocalyptic shadow hanging over the planet that could mean our children and grandchildren living in something close to hell on earth. Too busy worrying about important stuff like who leaked the OBR paper.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
Does it sting that the most popular party, and the soon to be second most popular party, both support Brexit, and one is led by its architect? Must do.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
Flooding in southern Asia leaves 600 dead ... Monsoon rain exacerbated by tropical storms caused some of the region's worst flooding in years, with millions affected in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Sri Lanka. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y9ejley9do
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
If the Any Questions audience were representative of the wider public, Starmer would have an approval rating level with chocolate and sex in the afternoon.
Whereas he actually has an approval rating lower than Prince Andrew.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Sister Rita, 82, was posting videos of herself doing boxing workouts on Tik Tok after she and Sister Regina, 86 and Sister Bernadette, 88, broke back into their old convent after being forced to move to a nursing home.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
I’m currently on the nightjet train from Wien to Amsterdam and having spent the past few days in Vienna and 4 days earlier this month in Prague.
We are definitely far poorer than we used to be (as my credit card can confirm when I look at meal prices).
Also for anyone thinking Schengen doesn’t allow border checks, the police have just boarded the train and checked ID cards / passports. Holland won’t bother as they never do
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Quite a few on here, I’d imagine.
I am sure you are right but we are in a political bubble on here
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
I’m currently on the nightjet train from Wien to Amsterdam and having spent the past few days in Vienna and 4 days earlier this month in Prague.
We are definitely far poorer than we used to be (as my credit card can confirm when I look at meal prices).
Also for anyone thinking Schengen doesn’t allow border checks, the police have just boarded the train and checked ID cards / passports. Holland won’t bother as they never do
Schengen is total crap. It’s 2025, for goodness sake.
Just when did British people just stop believing in a future?
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
I don’t think the UK will rejoin. The EU itself has changed. The case to rejoin all of those institutions is tougher than the case to remain.
However the case for an ever closer knitting of economic and defence ties with willing participants is inarguable.
Britain needs a vision, though. At present it stays largely in a defensive crouch, waiting for the EU or others to set out their stall.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Did Ted Heath ever answer similar ones when we joined?
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Well I wasn't a Brexiteer, but since we are out of the EU it is fair to ask those who want to rejoin these questions
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
Apparently they don’t normally publish that correspondence, together with the error on budget day I suspect Reeves would like to fire Richard Hughes !
Regardless I’m gobsmacked at the stupidity of Reeves to think she could get away with it .
They published their details to the Treasury Select Committee and of course they will now interview those involved including Reeves, and even possibly Starmer, so this is not going away soon
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
He was a brilliant playwright and scriptwriter but not the most upstanding figure in his private life, having affairs with Felicity Kendal and Sinead Cusack when she was married to Jeremy Irons
For example, is it actually in the UK’s interests for a post-war Ukraine to join the EU?
I rather think bringing Ukraine into a broader and bespoke arrangement might be more advantageous.
Possibly - and equally possibly might be our joint accession altering the character of the EU.
But you're right that our current arrangements are self-crippling.
In my adult lifetime, Britain has gone from the undisputed capital of cool, largest investment destination in the world after the U.S., and a foreign player of global clout…to the butt of global jokes and a net exporter of failed state memes.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Did Ted Heath ever answer similar ones when we joined?
Of course not.
In some considerable detail, actually, so you rhetorical point collapses.
Whether they turned out to be accurate is a matter of continuing debate, though of largely historic interest.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Brexiters DID provide such answers but it was complete bollocks. It was known to be bollocks at the time, and it has proven to be bollocks subsequently.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
Its a strange one.
Perhaps Reeves feared that Labour MPs wouldn't have accepted increasing fiscal headroom as a good enough reason for spending restraint and tax increases.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
I’m currently on the nightjet train from Wien to Amsterdam and having spent the past few days in Vienna and 4 days earlier this month in Prague.
We are definitely far poorer than we used to be (as my credit card can confirm when I look at meal prices).
Also for anyone thinking Schengen doesn’t allow border checks, the police have just boarded the train and checked ID cards / passports. Holland won’t bother as they never do
Schengen is total crap. It’s 2025, for goodness sake.
Just when did British people just stop believing in a future?
What's the line from Stephen Fry's troubled adolescence- my past stretched out gloriously before me? There's always been a lot of than in the British psyche, and not just growing up on the shore of Portsmouth Harbour. Even the late 1970s require a fair bit of narration to be considered Rock Bottom, because they weren't that bad really. So we don't have the same experience many countries have of agreeing that then was bad and now is better.
On top of which, we have the distorting effects of a population bulge that has worked through the UK age pyramid for the last seventy years or so, who are now at the stage where the reality that they don't have a personal future is becoming inescapable. And whilst plenty are considerate of the future generations, a strikingly large fraction are pretty solipsistic.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
All great questions Big_G.
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Brexiters DID provide such answers but it was complete bollocks. It was known to be bollocks at the time, and it has proven to be bollocks subsequently.
They provided a number of different, contradictory versions of our future arrangements. Obviously imaginary, since we voted to leave before a single detail was agreed.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
Its a strange one.
Perhaps Reeves feared that Labour MPs wouldn't have accepted increasing fiscal headroom as a good enough reason for spending restraint and tax increases.
Makes sense as a kind of Machiavellian deception of Labour backbenchers executed with Baldrickian ineptitude
Russia is winning, militarily, but at costs that mean victory will potentially be a bigger disaster for them than a defeat.
Yes. It does us no good to pretend Russia is losing. They aren't. They are winning.
But as you say, even if they 'won' tomorrow, and annexed Ukraine, they'd either be left with an ungovernable mess with non-stop partisan warfare or else they'd have to conduct a genoicide on a scale that would make even Hitler blush. And that's not forgetting the disaster that is their economy which they can't fix no matter whether they win or lose, and the inability to make any long term agreements whilst Putin is in charge.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
Its a strange one.
Perhaps Reeves feared that Labour MPs wouldn't have accepted increasing fiscal headroom as a good enough reason for spending restraint and tax increases.
Makes sense as a kind of Machiavellian deception of Labour backbenchers executed with Baldrickian ineptitude
Its the sort of thing attempted by someone who thinks she is cleverer than she is.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
10 years is a lifetime away and what would the UK rejoin, how would it effect all it's trade deals, and on what terms ?
I'm not sure why you're engaging. You won't get any sense.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
I confabulated? No, I understand basic maths.
If our economy is 8% lower than where we would be otherwise due to Brexit, then to restore that we would need to grow by 9% to get back to where we would have been.
For example, is it actually in the UK’s interests for a post-war Ukraine to join the EU?
I rather think bringing Ukraine into a broader and bespoke arrangement might be more advantageous.
Possibly - and equally possibly might be our joint accession altering the character of the EU.
But you're right that our current arrangements are self-crippling.
In my adult lifetime, Britain has gone from the undisputed capital of cool, largest investment destination in the world after the U.S., and a foreign player of global clout…to the butt of global jokes and a net exporter of failed state memes.
It’s very sad.
And all by following the shite social democratic politics that you espouse.
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
Russia is winning, militarily, but at costs that mean victory will potentially be a bigger disaster for them than a defeat.
Yes. It does us no good to pretend Russia is losing. They aren't. They are winning.
But as you say, even if they 'won' tomorrow, and annexed Ukraine, they'd either be left with an ungovernable mess with non-stop partisan warfare or else they'd have to conduct a genoicide on a scale that would make even Hitler blush. And that's not forgetting the disaster that is their economy which they can't fix no matter whether they win or lose, and the inability to make any long term agreements whilst Putin is in charge.
Russia's fucked. It just doesn't realise it yet.
Russians maybe not. But the oligarchs are trading in their useless roubles for gold bullion from the state reserves. They know Russia's fucked.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
Its a strange one.
Perhaps Reeves feared that Labour MPs wouldn't have accepted increasing fiscal headroom as a good enough reason for spending restraint and tax increases.
Makes sense as a kind of Machiavellian deception of Labour backbenchers executed with Baldrickian ineptitude
Its the sort of thing attempted by someone who thinks she is cleverer than she is.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
Where is the evidence of that?
Or is it just a case of "believe me"?
I suspect we benefited, while we were in, from being the country with the most liberal labour laws in the bloc: it made us the place where you'd want to hire.
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
@Will___lloyd The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
Where is the evidence of that?
Or is it just a case of "believe me"?
I suspect we benefited, while we were in, from being the country with the most liberal labour laws in the bloc: it made us the place where you'd want to hire.
Indeed, though we likely still benefit from that today, which is why our growth has continued to keep up with or exceed the bloc's.
The idea we'd somehow have outgrown the bloc by 9% more than we have grown, is just unsubstantiated.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
Let alone the US, which once upon a time would also be considered a peer.
Of course, it’s devilishly hard to abstract away various things (in the US’s case - the large domestic market, the large government deficit which amounts to an ongoing stimulus, cheap electricity, digital- and now AI- stocks) but Bart kind of needs to prove the case AGAINST the idea Brexit has significantly dented growth.
Even the OBR concurs (a joke, but only a very modest one).
Bart talks about “reality” but appears not to have left Warrington.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
Libertarian Barty disavowing the benefits of free trade.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Also - and I haven't read the whole paper - they didn't really use Irish GDP did they? Hope they used the Irish government's preferred measure, or a concoction of their own.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
Libertarian Barty disavowing the benefits of free trade.
I believe in free trade and we have a free trade agreement with the EU - and others.
Prior to Brexit we were growing slower than America and keeping in line with Europe. Post-Brexit we have grown slower than America and keeping in line with Europe.
The idea we would have kept up with America, if only we'd stayed in Europe, when we didn't when we were in Europe is just mad.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
The UK has lower unemployment than the EU average and faster growth or at least it did until Reeves started reversing that. When Sunak and Hunt left office the UK had lower inflation than the EU too. Trump’s tariffs are a far bigger cause of global protectionism than Brexit and Trump’s deportations were a harder line against immigration than Brexit produced. Even the EU has imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. Far right movements growing in strength in Europe are largely more extreme than Reform.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
The theory of finding matching economies in the past and projecting forward is fine as far as it goes - but one needs to sanity check based on the out-turn, lest the comparison be overtaken by events. As they say: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US's growth has been nuts these past few years, and for very particular reasons.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions. I am dealing with the economic facts, not the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
The theory of finding matching economies in the past and projecting forward is fine as far as it goes - but one needs to sanity check based on the out-turn, lest the comparison be overtaken by events. As they say: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US's growth has been nuts these past few years, and for very particular reasons.
After the same fashion - who would have thought Britain would grow faster than Germany after Brexit? But the fact it has is no pro-Brexit talking point, because of the reasons for Germany's problems.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Dimon on why JPMorgan Chase is not funding WH Ballroom: We have an issue, which is anything we do, since we do a lot of contracts with governments here and around the world, we have to be very careful how anything is perceived, and also how the next DOJ is going to deal with it. https://x.com/Acyn/status/1994848991029465355
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Is it ?
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger. Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
Yes, that is the assumption. And garbage in, garbage out, models that make that assumption will spit out that as an output.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
As someone who travels around Europe a lot ,previously for work now for fun) believe me we really haven’t grown at the same rate as elsewhere in Europe.
Let alone the US, which once upon a time would also be considered a peer.
Of course, it’s devilishly hard to abstract away various things (in the US’s case - the large domestic market, the large government deficit which amounts to an ongoing stimulus, cheap electricity, digital- and now AI- stocks) but Bart kind of needs to prove the case AGAINST the idea Brexit has significantly dented growth.
Even the OBR concurs (a joke, but only a very modest one).
Bart talks about “reality” but appears not to have left Warrington.
The counterargument is that Britain was famous for looking shabby and run down not only before Brexit but before the financial crisis too. The book "Crap Towns" became a bestseller during the peak Blair years.
Conversely London's renaissance has not been diminished by Brexit and it continues to be the most compelling major city in Western Europe.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
The theory of finding matching economies in the past and projecting forward is fine as far as it goes - but one needs to sanity check based on the out-turn, lest the comparison be overtaken by events. As they say: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US's growth has been nuts these past few years, and for very particular reasons.
The USA was rapidly outgrowing us pre-Brexit too.
Indeed during the Brexit debates people liked to refer to Europe as the world's biggest economy, which was true of the EEC-12 in the 1980s when Thatcher said it, but was long not of the EU-28 by 2016 let alone today. The USA has so consistently outgrown Europe, for decades, its not only caught up with the 12 EEC nations but has overtaken, by far, the 12 plus the extra 16 that have subsequently joined.
The idea that's our baseline is entirely unevidenced.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Because the studies are based on dodgy assumptions.
You and I made a £100 bet, years ago, where I said that a decade after post-Covid the UK would have outgrown the EU per capita. I'm currently winning that bet.
The idea we'd have outgrown them by an additional 9% on top is for the birds. We weren't pre-Brexit.
Did Reeves think the OBR wouldn’t publish their letter to the treasury ?
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The OBR has disclosed all the correspondence to the Treasury with dates and timeliness which, apparently, Reeves is angry that the information has been made public
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Because the studies are based on dodgy assumptions.
You and I made a £100 bet, years ago, where I said that a decade after post-Covid the UK would have outgrown the EU per capita. I'm currently winning that bet.
The idea we'd have outgrown them by an additional 9% on top is for the birds. We weren't pre-Brexit.
Wouldn’t it now require us to be the same size as Germany. Who really believes if we had stayed in the EU we would now have the same size economy as Germany?
Comments
(With apologies to John Laurie.)
There seems to have been a genuine effort to advance a more racialised picture of citizenship this past year, presumably there is a large target audience for it. Over time I expect it to become more and more prevalent, if less obviously, as defence of the 'right' people no matter what they say seems to be popular. A lot of 'said in the wrong way but real concern' kind of thing.
There's something of a crisis of confidence in Reform as the Tories' confidence grows. I don't think its the racism or Russia stories - it dates to before that. It's grappling with the enormity of the task ahead, and not having the depth of talent there to bring to bear on the situation. And Nigel's great difficulty with trusting anyone except from Zia Yusuf (who I think is brilliant).
A bold, confident Reform would have batted away the two negative stories, just driven through it and maybe lost a wing mirror but still motored on. This questioning Reform seems more reflective and muted, and vulnerable. We will see if they recover their mojo.
Time to admit the truth: Brexit has been an unmitigated economic failure
Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/11/29/admit-truth-brexit-has-been-an-unmitigated-economic-failure/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/15/project-fear-right-along/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/28/uk-eu-are-being-pushed-back-together/
He seems to admit the truth quite a bit - pretty much spills his guts when you wish him good morning it would appear.
Liverpool having a bit of a problem
...
Monsoon rain exacerbated by tropical storms caused some of the region's worst flooding in years, with millions affected in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Sri Lanka.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y9ejley9do
Whereas he actually has an approval rating lower than Prince Andrew.
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/runaway-nuns-must-quit-social-172211463.html
Sister Rita, 82, was posting videos of herself doing boxing workouts on Tik Tok after she and Sister Regina, 86 and Sister Bernadette, 88, broke back into their old convent after being forced to move to a nursing home.
We are definitely far poorer than we used to be (as my credit card can confirm when I look at meal prices).
Also for anyone thinking Schengen doesn’t allow border checks, the police have just boarded the train and checked ID cards / passports. Holland won’t bother as they never do
It’s 2025, for goodness sake.
Just when did British people just stop believing in a future?
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
I find her actions just bizarre . Why on earth would you continue to big up the black hole , in effect trashing your own government’s record .
She could have easily said our situation is better than initially thought but we still need to increase the fiscal headroom.
I just don’t see how she survives this as it’s not just the lie but the impact it could have had on the markets in the run-up to the budget .
The EU itself has changed. The case to rejoin all of those institutions is tougher than the case to remain.
However the case for an ever closer knitting of economic and defence ties with willing participants is inarguable.
Britain needs a vision, though.
At present it stays largely in a defensive crouch, waiting for the EU or others to set out their stall.
I rather think bringing Ukraine into a broader and bespoke arrangement might be more advantageous.
Sky suggesting tonight that Starmer was also aware of the details and will come under pressure next week in Parliament alongside Reeves
Tomorrow mornings political shows feature Reeves and it will be fascinating to watch how she deals with this
https://news.sky.com/story/budget-2025-chancellor-rachel-reeves-fighting-claims-she-lied-about-deficit-13477021
Did Brexiteers ever answer similar ones regarding Brexit ?
Of course not.
Of course not.
Regardless I’m gobsmacked at the stupidity of Reeves to think she could get away with it .
But you're right that our current arrangements are self-crippling.
Will Lloyd
@Will___lloyd
The best Tom Stoppard profile was written by Kenneth Tynan for the New Yorker in 1977:
“Essential to remember that Stoppard is an émigré. A director who has staged several of his plays told me the other day, ‘You have to be foreign to write English with that kind of hypnotized brilliance.’”
https://x.com/Will___lloyd/status/1994837721722835173
It’s very sad.
Whether they turned out to be accurate is a matter of continuing debate, though of largely historic interest.
Perhaps Reeves feared that Labour MPs wouldn't have accepted increasing fiscal headroom as a good enough reason for spending restraint and tax increases.
It won't cut through to most people. It's a bit too technical.
On top of which, we have the distorting effects of a population bulge that has worked through the UK age pyramid for the last seventy years or so, who are now at the stage where the reality that they don't have a personal future is becoming inescapable. And whilst plenty are considerate of the future generations, a strikingly large fraction are pretty solipsistic.
'If it is not written it is not said'
The OBR have provided written chapter and verse with timings,,so it will take some effort to come out of this for Reeves
But as you say, even if they 'won' tomorrow, and annexed Ukraine, they'd either be left with an ungovernable mess with non-stop partisan warfare or else they'd have to conduct a genoicide on a scale that would make even Hitler blush. And that's not forgetting the disaster that is their economy which they can't fix no matter whether they win or lose, and the inability to make any long term agreements whilst Putin is in charge.
Russia's fucked. It just doesn't realise it yet.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
If our economy is 8% lower than where we would be otherwise due to Brexit, then to restore that we would need to grow by 9% to get back to where we would have been.
92% * 1.09 = 100%
Without the enormous disruptions of Brexit (which as Gardenwalker noted have seen us lose much of our status as a destination for investment, particularly as a gateway to the European market), it's very likely our economy would be considerably larger.
Europe would likely have benefitted, too.
There nothing miraculous about the benefits of open access to very large markets on our doorstep.
However the reality is we've grown as fast or faster than our peers. Reality does not match that assumption.
Or is it just a case of "believe me"?
At Waterloo Napoleon did surrender
Oh, yeah
And I have met my destiny in quite a similar way..."
#AccidentalPartridge
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
The idea we'd somehow have outgrown the bloc by 9% more than we have grown, is just unsubstantiated.
Of course, it’s devilishly hard to abstract away various things (in the US’s case - the large domestic market, the large government deficit which amounts to an ongoing stimulus, cheap electricity, digital- and now AI- stocks) but Bart kind of needs to prove the case AGAINST the idea Brexit has significantly dented growth.
Even the OBR concurs (a joke, but only a very modest one).
Bart talks about “reality” but appears not to have left Warrington.
I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit.
You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Prior to Brexit we were growing slower than America and keeping in line with Europe.
Post-Brexit we have grown slower than America and keeping in line with Europe.
The idea we would have kept up with America, if only we'd stayed in Europe, when we didn't when we were in Europe is just mad.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
We have an issue, which is anything we do, since we do a lot of contracts with governments here and around the world, we have to be very careful how anything is perceived, and also how the next DOJ is going to deal with it.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1994848991029465355
Conversely London's renaissance has not been diminished by Brexit and it continues to be the most compelling major city in Western Europe.
I can’t believe that one of Britain’s most popular conservative accounts turns out to be a bot being run from Singapore.
https://x.com/s8mb/status/1994699183098302953
(Spoiler, it's not Leon)
Indeed during the Brexit debates people liked to refer to Europe as the world's biggest economy, which was true of the EEC-12 in the 1980s when Thatcher said it, but was long not of the EU-28 by 2016 let alone today. The USA has so consistently outgrown Europe, for decades, its not only caught up with the 12 EEC nations but has overtaken, by far, the 12 plus the extra 16 that have subsequently joined.
The idea that's our baseline is entirely unevidenced.
Play for Today: London is Drowning (1981)
A docudrama about what would happen if London was hit by severe flooding. Stars Ed Bishop, Michael Fish, James Green.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0780403/
You and I made a £100 bet, years ago, where I said that a decade after post-Covid the UK would have outgrown the EU per capita. I'm currently winning that bet.
The idea we'd have outgrown them by an additional 9% on top is for the birds. We weren't pre-Brexit.