The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Because the studies are based on dodgy assumptions.
You and I made a £100 bet, years ago, where I said that a decade after post-Covid the UK would have outgrown the EU per capita. I'm currently winning that bet.
The idea we'd have outgrown them by an additional 9% on top is for the birds. We weren't pre-Brexit.
Wouldn’t it now require us to be the same size as Germany. Who really believes if we had stayed in the EU we would now have the same size economy as Germany?
Indeed.
That's the problem, they don't need to really believe it, just say its the case and because of Brexit and people will swallow any old shite, without doing a bullshit sniff test first.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Similar studies were written that immigration didn't suppress wages. The writers of them are starting with a conclusion they like and working backwards. The idea that the UK could have grown, on average, 0.8-1.0% per year faster than it has done since 2016 is fanciful. If the study had suggested 1-2% total and 0.1-0.3% per year it might have some credibility, 8% less isn't within the realm of possibility for an economy like the UK which has high debt and a decades long low productivity issue that predated Brexit.
I mean using the US as the major weighting just screams that the writers of this study haven't ever been to the UK, seen the effects of the welfare state and low risk, low investment culture we've had for the better part of 20 years.
Also, the US has had an extremely favourable run fuelled by public borrowing on the back of USD being the global reserve currency. That isn't something this country will ever been able to replicate, in or out of the EU the UK is always going to be at the mercy of bond markets which means the opportunity to just massively increase the deficit and pump the economy with fiscal stimulus is extremely limited.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Similar studies were written that immigration didn't suppress wages. The writers of them are starting with a conclusion they like and working backwards. The idea that the UK could have grown, on average, 0.8-1.0% per year faster than it has done since 2016 is fanciful. If the study had suggested 1-2% total and 0.1-0.3% per year it might have some credibility, 8% less isn't within the realm of possibility for an economy like the UK which has high debt and a decades long low productivity issue that predated Brexit.
I mean using the US as the major weighting just screams that the writers of this study haven't ever been to the UK, seen the effects of the welfare state and low risk, low investment culture we've had for the better part of 20 years.
Also, the US has had an extremely favourable run fuelled by public borrowing on the back of USD being the global reserve currency. That isn't something this country will ever been able to replicate, in or out of the EU the UK is always going to be at the mercy of bond markets which means the opportunity to just massively increase the deficit and pump the economy with fiscal stimulus is extremely limited.
Indeed.
If they wanted a realistic comparison then Germany and France would have been the major weightings.
But that wouldn't have given the desired headline.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
It’s utter derangement. Our original membership terms proved to be immensely punitive, and it is highly unlikely we would even join back on those terms. It would be a punishment beating. For what purpose? If you want free movement of people and to buy each others widgets friction free there are agreements that can be entered into to achieve that.
But membership? No. It’s done and dusted. We will not want to join on any terms that would be offered , or be welcome. We would be seen as a disruptive influence, as we were first time when we insisted we only wanted to buy and sell things to each other and kept on saying no.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
It’s utter derangement. Our original membership terms proved to be immensely punitive, and it is highly unlikely we would even join back on those terms. It would be a punishment beating. For what purpose? If you want free movement of people and to buy each others widgets friction free there are agreements that can be entered into to achieve that.
But membership? No. It’s done and dusted. We will not want to join on any terms that would be offered , or be welcome. We would be seen as a disruptive influence, as we were first time when we insisted we only wanted to buy and sell things to each other and kept on saying no.
This video of Corbyn being confronted at a Your Party meeting for not being anti Zionist enough is quite something, exasperated he says "I'm fed up with being painted into a corner of being seen as a pro Zionist" then says "what do you think I've been doing with my life?" only to be met with "it was under your leadership the IHRA definition of antisemitism was adopted, you condemn the resistance in Palestine, you haven't called for one unitary state..."
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Similar studies were written that immigration didn't suppress wages. The writers of them are starting with a conclusion they like and working backwards. The idea that the UK could have grown, on average, 0.8-1.0% per year faster than it has done since 2016 is fanciful. If the study had suggested 1-2% total and 0.1-0.3% per year it might have some credibility, 8% less isn't within the realm of possibility for an economy like the UK which has high debt and a decades long low productivity issue that predated Brexit.
I mean using the US as the major weighting just screams that the writers of this study haven't ever been to the UK, seen the effects of the welfare state and low risk, low investment culture we've had for the better part of 20 years.
Also, the US has had an extremely favourable run fuelled by public borrowing on the back of USD being the global reserve currency. That isn't something this country will ever been able to replicate, in or out of the EU the UK is always going to be at the mercy of bond markets which means the opportunity to just massively increase the deficit and pump the economy with fiscal stimulus is extremely limited.
Indeed.
If they wanted a realistic comparison then Germany and France would have been the major weightings.
But that wouldn't have given the desired headline.
France is probably the fairest comparison and overall growth is basically the same over the same period for France and the UK, though France has ever so slightly better per capita growth. Again, there may have been a somewhat limited negative effect on the economy from Brexit (though I maintain that the actual evidence is extremely limited in either direction), however the larger issues for this country are entirely domestic. Low skill, low grade immigration, surging housing costs, surging welfare costs, inflation out of control again out of step with the EU (again, nothing to do with Brexit just incompetence from the government), a completely idiotic planning system holding back investment in infrastructure and other large projects.
In or out of the EU these problems would basically all be the same.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Also the report suggests, “up to 8%” rather than the 9% you seem to have confabulated.
"In the construction of our synthetic control estimate, we use pre-referendum data from 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (41 periods), to obtain optimal weights that minimize the prediction error in the pre- referendum period."
The weights are: "USA: 61.4%, Estonia: 10.9%, Greece: 9.5%, Italy: 6.7%, Ireland: 4.4%, Latvia: 3.4%, Iceland: 3% and Hungary 0.7%".
The theory that, if we had stayed in the EU, we would have enjoyed US-like growth rates wants arguing for, not assuming.
Interesting weighting. I’m surprised it does not include France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany which I’d have thought are “most UK-like”.
I would also argue to only include the U.S. North East, if I were creating such a model.
However, once again I’d note that this is the umpteenth study to find for significant economic damage from Brexit. You and I may quarrel with the weighting here, but at the end of day it’s hard to dispute damage that after all follows what would be suggested by pretty basic economic theory.
Studies based on garbage in, garbage out.
Saying “garbage” all the time is not a credible counter argument. You’re effectively a “Brexit denier”, who chooses not to address the economic facts.
I've given a credible counter-argument, that the data does not match the assumptions.
The UK has outgrown our peers that we were tracking with pre-Brexit.
We haven't kept up with the USA post-Brexit, but we weren't pre-Brexit either.
Why do such a weight of studies disagree with you? And indeed the great preponderance of economic opinion?
Similar studies were written that immigration didn't suppress wages. The writers of them are starting with a conclusion they like and working backwards. The idea that the UK could have grown, on average, 0.8-1.0% per year faster than it has done since 2016 is fanciful. If the study had suggested 1-2% total and 0.1-0.3% per year it might have some credibility, 8% less isn't within the realm of possibility for an economy like the UK which has high debt and a decades long low productivity issue that predated Brexit.
I mean using the US as the major weighting just screams that the writers of this study haven't ever been to the UK, seen the effects of the welfare state and low risk, low investment culture we've had for the better part of 20 years.
Also, the US has had an extremely favourable run fuelled by public borrowing on the back of USD being the global reserve currency. That isn't something this country will ever been able to replicate, in or out of the EU the UK is always going to be at the mercy of bond markets which means the opportunity to just massively increase the deficit and pump the economy with fiscal stimulus is extremely limited.
The methodology of all of these studies has the flaw that it assumes an inflexion point, and if the data fail to show one, it gets explained away by creating an implausible counterfactual. Meanwhile the causes of the actual inflection point of 2008 remain poorly understood.
Which is why all those who are celebrating Badenoch's slight improvement in the polls are going to be disappointed. The Tories own Brexit lock stock and barrel. For those few who still think it was a good idea Farage.is loitering in the wings.
When a party likely to be in government announces they will rejoin the EU then you can hope but it is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future
When a Party in government crashes the economy by doing something as destructive as causeing us to Brexit then it takes a long time-years- for the country to forgive and forget. Today as every time they have an Any Questions the guaranteed cheer comes whenever someone castigates Brexit. Wherever in the country it is held and whoever mentions it.. Today it was the turn of Daisy Cooper
The people voted to leave in a democratic referendum
I voted remain but certainly the UK is in a very different position today with pros and cons but rejoining the EU, much as you crave, is simply a pipe dream
And by the way how many people listen to any questions and even more so how many have a clue who Daisy Cooper is ?
Its not a pipe dream, its more a matter of when we Rejoin. Probably a decade away but will come around fast.
Brexit has been a manifest failure. It hasn't fixed any of our economic or political problems and is in large part responsible for our economic doldrums.
Far more than either Farage's youthful racism or his Putin links, it is his achillies heel. His signature policy is loathed by 2/3 of the population.
It’s utter derangement. Our original membership terms proved to be immensely punitive, and it is highly unlikely we would even join back on those terms. It would be a punishment beating. For what purpose? If you want free movement of people and to buy each others widgets friction free there are agreements that can be entered into to achieve that.
But membership? No. It’s done and dusted. We will not want to join on any terms that would be offered , or be welcome. We would be seen as a disruptive influence, as we were first time when we insisted we only wanted to buy and sell things to each other and kept on saying no.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
What cost? Why do we pay it? How significant is that cost?
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
What cost? Why do we pay it? How significant is that cost?
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
Nah just take a moment think of all the opportunities we've lost because we've spent a decade trying to polish the brexit turd.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
What cost? Why do we pay it? How significant is that cost?
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
Nah just take a moment think of all the opportunities we've lost because we've spent a decade trying to polish the brexit turd.
I'm well familiar with the concept of opportunity cost.
However the data is not there, which is why studies claiming it rely upon bullshit assumptions, like that we'd have American growth or otherwise artificially inflating growth that was never there pre-Brexit.
We've outgrown Europe, "despite Brexit", there were not opportunities if we'd remained to outgrow them by so much more we'd now be bigger than Germany, a country with over 20% higher population than us.
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
What cost? Why do we pay it? How significant is that cost?
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
Nah just take a moment think of all the opportunities we've lost because we've spent a decade trying to polish the brexit turd.
I'm well familiar with the concept of opportunity cost.
However the data is not there, which is why studies claiming it rely upon bullshit assumptions, like that we'd have American growth or otherwise artificially inflating growth that was never there pre-Brexit.
We've outgrown Europe, "despite Brexit", there were not opportunities if we'd remained to outgrow them by so much more we'd now be bigger than Germany, a country with over 20% higher population than us.
c'mon you weren't even familiar with the concept of not using your real name on a political website for a decade, now you think you're an economic expert
The UK has grown as fast as the EU has over time. We've grown faster than Germany in recent years. "Despite Brexit".
The idea we'd be miraculously have an economy 9% bigger than we have now if we were in the EU is utter bollocks.
And yet several studies keep alighting on similar numbers (plus or minus two points).
Germany has, as I'm sure you’re aware, been a notable laggard in recent years due its reliance on Russian gas and Chinese markets, both of which are now busted.
Studies based on a garbage in, garbage out, methodology of saying we assume the UK would have grown more were it not for Brexit and our study says that as a result.
The real world data does not match those studies. The UK has not been the laggard.
real world data says 'not for eu' stamped items in my cupboards has a cost we all pay
What cost? Why do we pay it? How significant is that cost?
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
Nah just take a moment think of all the opportunities we've lost because we've spent a decade trying to polish the brexit turd.
I'm well familiar with the concept of opportunity cost.
However the data is not there, which is why studies claiming it rely upon bullshit assumptions, like that we'd have American growth or otherwise artificially inflating growth that was never there pre-Brexit.
We've outgrown Europe, "despite Brexit", there were not opportunities if we'd remained to outgrow them by so much more we'd now be bigger than Germany, a country with over 20% higher population than us.
c'mon you weren't even familiar with the concept of not using your real name on a political website for a decade, now you think you're an economic expert
When I joined the site (back in 2007) most of the community here were using real names, so I chose to register with mine. It was only years later that it became an issue for me.
Economics is my background. IANAL, but economics is my field.
And the first lesson I had in Economics is one that has stuck with me for life, when you assume you make an ass out of u and me.
These asinine studies all fail as they have bullshit assumptions. Assuming we'd have grown faster if we remained, does not make it so. Check the real life data and it does not match.
It's pretty simple. brexit had an economic cost. even the leavers all agreed it would have an economic cost. so without that cost growth would have been higher. not sure why you getting your knickers in a twist about this.
Comments
That's the problem, they don't need to really believe it, just say its the case and because of Brexit and people will swallow any old shite, without doing a bullshit sniff test first.
I mean using the US as the major weighting just screams that the writers of this study haven't ever been to the UK, seen the effects of the welfare state and low risk, low investment culture we've had for the better part of 20 years.
Also, the US has had an extremely favourable run fuelled by public borrowing on the back of USD being the global reserve currency. That isn't something this country will ever been able to replicate, in or out of the EU the UK is always going to be at the mercy of bond markets which means the opportunity to just massively increase the deficit and pump the economy with fiscal stimulus is extremely limited.
If they wanted a realistic comparison then Germany and France would have been the major weightings.
But that wouldn't have given the desired headline.
But membership? No. It’s done and dusted. We will not want to join on any terms that would be offered , or be welcome. We would be seen as a disruptive influence, as we were first time when we insisted we only wanted to buy and sell things to each other and kept on saying no.
This video of Corbyn being confronted at a Your Party meeting for not being anti Zionist enough is quite something, exasperated he says "I'm fed up with being painted into a corner of being seen as a pro Zionist" then says "what do you think I've been doing with my life?" only to be met with "it was under your leadership the IHRA definition of antisemitism was adopted, you condemn the resistance in Palestine, you haven't called for one unitary state..."
In or out of the EU these problems would basically all be the same.
Actual data please. Because its not showing up in actual growth data, where we've outgrown Europe, not become the laggard.
The idea that ceteris paribus if we'd remained in the EU we'd miraculously now be bigger than Germany, because we didn't Brexit, is just total and utter bullshit.
However the data is not there, which is why studies claiming it rely upon bullshit assumptions, like that we'd have American growth or otherwise artificially inflating growth that was never there pre-Brexit.
We've outgrown Europe, "despite Brexit", there were not opportunities if we'd remained to outgrow them by so much more we'd now be bigger than Germany, a country with over 20% higher population than us.
Economics is my background. IANAL, but economics is my field.
And the first lesson I had in Economics is one that has stuck with me for life, when you assume you make an ass out of u and me.
These asinine studies all fail as they have bullshit assumptions. Assuming we'd have grown faster if we remained, does not make it so. Check the real life data and it does not match.