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What the public expects from the budget – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,279
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    Gosh, I am surprised - an unusual view from you that we ought to take very seriously.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,594
    edited 1:57PM
    Pulpstar said:

    I get about 55 mpg (I think !) from my car, so that is 12 miles per litre.

    So to emulate a 3p per mile tax you'd need to increase fuel duty by 36p.

    Other half's car isn't quite as efficient but she does fewer miles - fuel duty would have to go up maybe 25-30p to replicate the 3p charge or so for us ?

    1.5p per mile for hybrids is massive compared to pure petrol or diesels quite honestly probably about equivalent of 15-20p hike (New cars are quite fuel efficient !)

    Fuel duty is currently 53p/l.

    To tax EVs equivalently to your car, would be 4.4p/mile.

    The main reason EVs are cheaper than ICE cars to run is the massive tax arbitrage. Take that away, and for people who can't charge at home, or who don't control their own electricity tarrif, they are significantly more expensive to run than a ICE.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,457

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    BiB - it's worse than that, though, isn't it? The actual cost of the electricity is higher than the cost of the diesel/petrol.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,905
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    She's saving her job.
    Yeah, think the takeaway is both Starmer and Badenoch survive 2026. The economy and social policy continues in zombie mode.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,717
    edited 1:57PM
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Yes getting their calcium
    Without added sugar and colouring, though - plus it's cheaper to buy plain milk.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,840
    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,956
    £1.5bn by reducing the capital allowances on investment according to the BBC. Its genuinely difficult to think of a measure more destructive of future growth and productivity than that. I mean, WTF? We desperately need more investment, to make more in this country, to reduce the amount we import, to improve our poor productivity and to make this country an attractive place to invest compared with our competitors.

    *weeps softly*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,777
    maaarsh said:

    Lucky for Labour people will never see this - not voting Tory again but extremely good from Kemi

    Not sure about that, Kemi’s response is on BBC, Sky and GB news and was on ITV initially too
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463
    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol
  • isamisam Posts: 43,112

    This is quite something from Badenoch. Reeves looks visibly shocked

    The way she ridiculed RR’s breakfast tv appearance was savage, and very funny.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390
    ohnotnow said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    I was just thinking that. Much better performance than the chancellor who - in theory - should have been the star of the show.
    The scores for performance and logic for the opposition speech in response are generally uncorrelated. Credit for the performance, which will help her fend off the sharks all around, but beneath it there’s no real alternative strategy being put forward by the Tories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,718
    edited 2:00PM

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    "Nothing like a bit of girl on girl!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,498
    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Drinking milkshakes instead of booze.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    She's saving her job.
    Yeah, think the takeaway is both Starmer and Badenoch survive 2026. The economy and social policy continues in zombie mode.
    That’s my instinctive betting position, but so far I haven’t been brave enough to do more than dabble in the pond.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,331

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,905
    HYUFD said:

    maaarsh said:

    Lucky for Labour people will never see this - not voting Tory again but extremely good from Kemi

    Not sure about that, Kemi’s response is on BBC, Sky and GB news and was on ITV initially too
    There are some good social media friendly gags in there. There will be a Tory boost. Of course Labour actually do far better with Tories and Reform on 25 each than they do with Reform on 30.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,953

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,318
    Kemi Badenoch doing herself a lot of good in this response

  • isamisam Posts: 43,112
    He’s right. Amazing what a bit of confidence does in any walk of life

    The transformation in Kemi Badenoch’s commons performances is incredible.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1993681263941620083?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,777
    Kemi says Reeves could have abolished stamp duty and business rates and been on the side of those setting up businesses but wasn’t
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,796
    Excellent by Kemi 👍
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,001
    HYUFD said:

    State pension increased in line with the triple lock

    You'll get the wails that (despite a generous settlement using triple lock) that the boomers will have to pay tax on it. It may even push some into the 45% tax bracket.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390
    I’d guess that Reeves hasn’t had many calm fully sleeping nights recently, from the look of her.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,460
    Absolutely brilliant from Badenoch. Where has that politician been for the past 12 months?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,650
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Yes getting their calcium
    Without added sugar and colouring, though - plus it's cheaper to buy plain milk.
    I just had a flashback to the late 70s and having a gloriously day-glo green "lime" milkshake on Blackpool promenade for breakfast. I suspect whatever was in it is probably illegal now - but boy, did it taste exciting as a child.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,840
    Chancellor normally responds to Leader of Opposition.

    But instead Reeves has left the Chamber.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,318

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    Reeves did that entirely on her own by trying to hide behind misogyny and mansplaining
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,606
    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,777

    Child benefit cap gone. I think this is the sum total of what this budget is about. Shore up Starmer and Reeves’ position and defer the sensible decisions for another day.

    For another government.

    They've got a working majority of 169 and they're a lame duck government that can't make any sensible decisions.

    Pathetic.
    They have made a decision, back to old Labour tax and spend but it is not a sensible one
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,792
    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    What's the problem? Collect it at MOT. For cars too new, insist on a 2 minute appointment at an MOT centre where the number is read, but no inspection is done...
  • eekeek Posts: 32,070
    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 594
    edited 2:04PM
    HYUFD said:

    Customs duty imposed on all parcel deliveries whatever the size of parcel

    Removing the exemption for small packages has been tried elsewhere and resulted in customs delays, angry recipients, and smaller suppliers simply refusing to ship to those countries. And it has no measurable positive impact on domestic manufacturing.

    So Labour decided it's a top idea.

    Reeves would have to get smarter to be a moron.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463
    tlg86 said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    BiB - it's worse than that, though, isn't it? The actual cost of the electricity is higher than the cost of the diesel/petrol.
    Average annual mileage is c. 7,000. Most EVs are fuelled at home most of the time - leccy is cheaper, the vat you pay on that cheaper is also cheaper.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,905
    MikeL said:

    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.

    Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,533
    MikeL said:

    Chancellor normally responds to Leader of Opposition.

    But instead Reeves has left the Chamber.

    Sensible, otherwise a cat fight
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,953
    Was that the Expensive Car Supplement threshold increasing to £50k.

    And something something I do not understand about employee car ownership. Not my area.

    And bloody hell, she's been listening to the LTDA. They are outright knuckle draggers.

    Hmmm. This does NOT feel joined up, either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    So that you will direct your spare £££ towards our great British companies
  • isamisam Posts: 43,112
    IanB2 said:

    I’d guess that Reeves hasn’t had many calm fully sleeping nights recently, from the look of her.

    Much as I loved that from Kemi, I do feel sorry for Reeves. She gave a feisty speech, but looks absolutely haunted
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,001

    IanB2 said:

    So far, the markets don’t seem to mind, at least

    They fell on the leak. I guess they like the increase in the headroom in the budget plan. If that brings down the rate of interest for the debt over the next few years then it will be one of the better results of this budget.
    Good at economics (see minimum wage) but poor at politics. And the cherry was the two child limit. I'm impressed but I wont be buying tomorrow's Daily Mail. May need a Telegraph as I'm cleaning my boots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,777

    HYUFD said:

    maaarsh said:

    Lucky for Labour people will never see this - not voting Tory again but extremely good from Kemi

    Not sure about that, Kemi’s response is on BBC, Sky and GB news and was on ITV initially too
    There are some good social media friendly gags in there. There will be a Tory boost. Of course Labour actually do far better with Tories and Reform on 25 each than they do with Reform on 30.
    Indeed but if the Tories gain some centrist swing voters from Labour even if Labour win back some leftwing voters from the Greens that still boosts Kemi. Especially as the polls last week had a slight swing from Reform to Conservative too
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,953
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    That wasn't what I heard, but I could be wrong.

    Was that not just the Cash ISA element to encourage equity investment?
  • isamisam Posts: 43,112
    “Laurel and Foolhardy”!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,767
    DavidL said:

    £1.5bn by reducing the capital allowances on investment according to the BBC. Its genuinely difficult to think of a measure more destructive of future growth and productivity than that. I mean, WTF? We desperately need more investment, to make more in this country, to reduce the amount we import, to improve our poor productivity and to make this country an attractive place to invest compared with our competitors.

    *weeps softly*

    That is nuts.

    We need to make investing in productivity and doing stuff cheaper than financialisation of companies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,606
    MikeL said:

    Chancellor normally responds to Leader of Opposition.

    But instead Reeves has left the Chamber.

    Yeah I thought you normally get another response. BBC didn't say anything.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,377
    edited 2:09PM
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
    Voluntary ?

    Are you sure ?

    Simplest way would be for the garage to add the calculated payment to the bill and make the car untaxable till the levy is paid (Like an MOT fail works). Garages are already unpaid tax collectors for VAT so no odds there.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,318
    MikeL said:

    Chancellor normally responds to Leader of Opposition.

    But instead Reeves has left the Chamber.

    Reeves is still on the front bench
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
    EVED "will be paid alongside VED". Well, will it. Remember that VED is paid by the owner - which means very often that isn't the registered keeper. A lease car or company car? The company pays VED. But EVED is per mile based on the driver, so will be impossible to pay by the company. Which means many cats will have VED paid by one and EVED paid by another.

    Confused? Yep. And even where its done online. How do you guess your miles? How do they enforce it? MOT? What about cars younger than 3 years? Would you have to get an MOT centre to validate the mileage when you sell a 2 year old car?

    Incidentally, the 440k reduction in EVs on the road is a QUARTER of all EVs currently registered. I know its "by 2031" the year and not the time this evening, but even so, its a huge reduction.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,089
    edited 2:10PM

    HYUFD said:

    Customs duty imposed on all parcel deliveries whatever the size of parcel

    Removing the exemption for small packages has been tried elsewhere and resulted in customs delays, angry recipients, and smaller suppliers simply refusing to ship to those countries. And it has no measurable positive impact on domestic manufacturing.

    So Labour decided it's a top idea.

    Reeves would have to get smarter to be a moron.
    It’s also being used by larger importers to dodge paying import duties by breaking up their imports into zillions of small packages IIRC.

    Treasury probably feels (rightly I would guess) that the gain in preventing that is larger than the loss from consumers having to handle paying import duties on small packages.

    (quick google: BBC article suggests imports of £3billion are using the small parcel exception: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnv78eey8plo )
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390

    MikeL said:

    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.

    Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
    A great suggestion. I can shift her from red to green in my book without tipping anyone else from green to red. So I’ve just done so.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,150
    Anyhow back to this awful budget - Labour are looking more clueless than ever on the economy. And we’ve still got the employment rights bill to come..
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 227

    Kemi Badenoch doing herself a lot of good in this response

    I enjoyed her response, but I know deep down that's just my residual tribal Toryism kicking in... it's so hard to feel genuine passion and excitement about a theoretical 'slightly better' option.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,594

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    The problem is that the whole EV thing is rather built on sand. For a lot of users, their real cost is more than running an ICE car, but this is hidden in the tax arbitrage, with the UK taxpayer taking the financial hit and then some, whilst the user wins out.

    Doing something by a more expensive route than necessary ultimately makes us poorer. That is objective fact. It may be worth it for other trade offs (eg reduced pollution), but that doesn't alter the direct costs. But politicans of all stripes have lied to us for the last 20 years, trying to tell us that EVs are cheaper to run compared to ICE cars, rather than that they are choosing to give EV owners a massive tax subsidy.

    Now - it's possible for the true costs of an EV to be lower than an ICE - eg when charged off your home solar system - but for a lot of users, that won't be the case. E.g. anyone thinking of going EV via public charging is completely insane.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,606
    The budget was delivered to silent Labour benche’s, the only sounds really were the opposition gasps and laughter every time Rachel from accounts brazenly lied. Amazing optics. Labour benches so startlingly confused and horrified by their own leaderships budget.

    Whilst Starmer and Reeves sit there looking like failures and losers and soon to be gone, Kemi turns in her best ever performance, an absolute tour de force dismantling the budget, looking like a coming force in British politics.

    The utter incompetence of this Labour government laid bare, on the astonishing fact Labour spin team headed up by the most incompetence in number 10 in history wrote this LOTO speech weeks ago for Kemi, when usually it’s supposed to be difficult for opposition when don’t know what’s coming out the case shaped hat. Not so when facing this government front bench - the whole of the house should chant you don’t know what you’re doing at them.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,089
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    That wasn't what I heard, but I could be wrong.

    Was that not just the Cash ISA element to encourage equity investment?
    Cash ISA down to £12k, total ISA limit (Cash + stocks) remains at £20k. Over 65s get to remain all cash if they want.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,953
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    What's the problem? Collect it at MOT. For cars too new, insist on a 2 minute appointment at an MOT centre where the number is read, but no inspection is done...
    We know that doing things at MOT dependent on honesty of all parties does not work.

    Have a look at the car cruising scene and how they get their illegal mods through on a nod and a wink, and perhaps a few notes. Also used for fraudulent number plates on both 4 wheel and 2 wheel vehicles.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,460
    edited 2:13PM

    MikeL said:

    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.

    Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
    A swallow does not a summer make. I think she gave a great response, but it is just a speech at the end of the day. But if the economy continues to flatline and starts to take more of a prominence in public debate, and if Reform start faltering, there are some conditions present for a modest Tory recovery to -potentially- begin.

    If we get more of that fire from Kemi; good on her - we need some more passion from our politicians.

    Badenoch could do with that recovery starting in the next 3-4 months really, to avoid a terrible May.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,600

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    People who don’t like Badenoch think her response is awful.

    Well I’m shocked.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,717
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    That wasn't what I heard, but I could be wrong.

    Was that not just the Cash ISA element to encourage equity investment?
    Yes, my understanding too. Logical, as oldies shoiuldn't have too much in shares - up to a decent chunk of savings, of course, at which they can take more risks. THis gives the oldies more flexibility. Not the youngsters though, which is silly as plenty of people can have a modest inheritance or pension lump sum (or even compo for something like redundancy) that they should save safely in something they *understand* - the money market idea being a good point but not one to recommend if one doesn't have much, and/or doesn't comprehend how it works (my rule for financial products).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390
    KnightOut said:

    Kemi Badenoch doing herself a lot of good in this response

    I enjoyed her response, but I know deep down that's just my residual tribal Toryism kicking in... it's so hard to feel genuine passion and excitement about a theoretical 'slightly better' option.
    If the Tories were in office, things would clearly be worse. Nevertheless we can enjoy their puncturing the Labour balloon (insofar as it still has any air in it)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,905

    MikeL said:

    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.

    Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
    A swallow does not a summer make. I think she gave a great response, but it is just a speech at the end of the day. But if the economy continues to flatline and starts to take more of a prominence in public debate, and if Reform start faltering, there are some conditions present for a modest Tory recovery to -potentially- begin.

    Badenoch could do with that starting in the next 3-4 months really, to avoid a terrible May.
    Could Jenrick have done that without putting off middle England? I doubt it.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,070
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    So that you will direct your spare £££ towards our great British companies
    Nope - it’s going to end up in a moneymarket tracking fund
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,600
    edited 2:14PM
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    That wasn't what I heard, but I could be wrong.

    Was that not just the Cash ISA element to encourage equity investment?
    Yes

    She said over 65s could keep the full £20k cash element.

    Makes sense to encourage younger people into non cash investments
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,338

    algarkirk said:

    Ironic that the 'BBC Verify' post in the live feed about the two child benefit cap and poverty uses the bullshit 'relative poverty' measure.

    You may not like it, that's fair enough, but it's a clear, objective, and widely used measure. Hardly something to criticise BBC Verify for.

    Out of interest what would you propose as the measure of poverty? Does a child need to be starving, in rags, no shoes?
    When we interrogate our idea of poverty it is always a relative concept at its core, because poverty is ultimately about being excluded from the normal patterns of consumption and participation in our current society. In my view it is so-called 'absolute' poverty measures that are bullshit.
    Not being able to 'keep up with the Joneses' in a neighbourhood pissing contest doesn't make someone poor. It makes them unable to afford an unnecessary and 'fashionable' splurging of cash you don't have on things you don't need. And the idea that should be subsidised by the taxpayer is just another tier in the cake of relative poverty bullshit.

    Edited: as an aside, I'll be AFK for the Budget, which is a shame but needs must.
    It's not about keeping up with Jones's. The point is that what we might consider an absolute poverty line now would be very different to the absolute poverty line 50 years ago, because we have different expectations about what constitutes a minimum standard of living, and these expectations are related to what we consider a normal standard of living. This is why I find the idea of some kind of objective and immutable poverty line fundamentally dishonest.
    As always it depends on what is done with the concept. Relative and absolute poverty are clearly different ideas. Relative poverty has the property of being more or less by definition ineradicable. Absolute poverty has the property of being a quantity of immiseration which is unacceptable when encountered, especially in children.

    Damage is done by leftists who elide relative poverty into something self evidently bad, when it is not self evident. Rightists do harm by insisting the real measure should be more like absolute poverty, which we should not contemplate for anyone. Imprecision and ambiguity is the permanent friend of lobbyists.
    Relative poverty is not ineradicable. If you define relative poverty as, say, 60% of the median wage, then it is straightforward (in mathematical terms) to have a distribution with no-one in relative poverty.
    You still have the idea though that people are in poverty, when in reality, compared to previous generations and indeed most around the world, they lead comfortable lives, eat enough food, are warm and dry. The term is pernicious and says more about societal equality than the struggles of those who have less.
    And you still ignore that many children are in absolute poverty, the number rising. There are people in this country who do not eat enough foor and are not warm and dry.

    However, my point was not on these broader questions or on how it is best to assess poverty in the country. My point was just that lots of you can't do maths. If you're going to complain about relative poverty measures, it behooves you to understand the underlying calculation.
    I'm not ignoring it. Absolute poverty does exist. But relative poverty is a poor measure of that.
    And also a measure that you don’t understand the maths for.
    I'm not an idiot. Of course I understand the maths. I am against the term xxx poverty because of how it is used. It is used to imply one thing when the measure is actually something else.
    You claimed, “Relative poverty has the property of being more or less by definition ineradicable.” This suggests you do not understand the maths.
    Because the level at which the definition is set is key. If the UK median income is just shy of 40000, then the 60% threshold is 24000. So someone earning 23999 is in relative poverty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,390
    edited 2:15PM
    Taz said:

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    People who don’t like Badenoch think her response is awful.

    Well I’m shocked.

    I don’t like KB but her response was pretty decent. It’s just a shame there isn’t anything beneath, to shore it up.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,940
    isam said:

    He’s right. Amazing what a bit of confidence does in any walk of life

    The transformation in Kemi Badenoch’s commons performances is incredible.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1993681263941620083?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Kemi's performance does raise the question once more of whether she is being sabotaged by her PMQs team.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,331

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    Going for the pick-me vote.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,070
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
    Voluntary ?

    Are you sure ?

    Simplest way would be for the garage to add the calculated payment to the bill and make the car untaxable till the levy is paid (Like an MOT fail works). Garages are already unpaid tax collectors for VAT so no odds there.
    The check at MOT and sale time will be you owe £750 - because your account says you’ve driven 25,000 and haven’t paid.

    The voluntary bit is that there may be a £30 a month option that offsets the check point immediate payment required charge
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,905
    Taz said:

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    People who don’t like Badenoch think her response is awful.

    Well I’m shocked.

    I don't like her - think she did well, best she has been to date by some margin, and have backed her on bf.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463
    theProle said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    The problem is that the whole EV thing is rather built on sand. For a lot of users, their real cost is more than running an ICE car, but this is hidden in the tax arbitrage, with the UK taxpayer taking the financial hit and then some, whilst the user wins out.

    Doing something by a more expensive route than necessary ultimately makes us poorer. That is objective fact. It may be worth it for other trade offs (eg reduced pollution), but that doesn't alter the direct costs. But politicans of all stripes have lied to us for the last 20 years, trying to tell us that EVs are cheaper to run compared to ICE cars, rather than that they are choosing to give EV owners a massive tax subsidy.

    Now - it's possible for the true costs of an EV to be lower than an ICE - eg when charged off your home solar system - but for a lot of users, that won't be the case. E.g. anyone thinking of going EV via public charging is completely insane.
    Morning!
    1. EVs are cheaper to run. No real servicing. Less consumables - tyres, brakes etc
    2. Most EVs do 8,500 miles a year so mostly charged at home not in public
    3. Use Tesla superchargers to pay half the price of Ionity etc
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,888
    Some of you may be aware of Matt Wardman's excellent starter pack for political betting on Bluesky. For technical reasons a direct link doesn't work, but if you click on the link below and then click on "starter packs" you'll find it.

    https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,600
    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    People who don’t like Badenoch think her response is awful.

    Well I’m shocked.

    I don’t like KB but her response was pretty decent. It’s just a shame there isn’t anything beneath, to shore it up.
    I’d stopped watching, like many people I think
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,377
    edited 2:19PM

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
    EVED "will be paid alongside VED". Well, will it. Remember that VED is paid by the owner - which means very often that isn't the registered keeper. A lease car or company car? The company pays VED. But EVED is per mile based on the driver, so will be impossible to pay by the company. Which means many cats will have VED paid by one and EVED paid by another.

    Confused? Yep. And even where its done online. How do you guess your miles? How do they enforce it? MOT? What about cars younger than 3 years? Would you have to get an MOT centre to validate the mileage when you sell a 2 year old car?

    Incidentally, the 440k reduction in EVs on the road is a QUARTER of all EVs currently registered. I know its "by 2031" the year and not the time this evening, but even so, its a huge reduction.
    Calculated charge from MOT (Or mileage on sale from v5c) less the previous MOT (Or purchase from v5c) added to the VED bill works doesn't it.
    Also I think you're overthinking the whole owners/keepers thing - the charge is going to simply be on the vehicle itself and will be paid for by same bod paying the VED.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,089
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    What's the problem? Collect it at MOT. For cars too new, insist on a 2 minute appointment at an MOT centre where the number is read, but no inspection is done...
    Or just collect the difference between reported mileage & actual mileage at the 3 year MOT & publish the reported mileages through the same interface that lets you currently see the MOT record for a vehicle.

    That way second hand purchasers of a sub three year old vehicle can see whether they’re going to be stung with a mileage discrepancy tax & adjust the price they’d be willing to pay appropriately.

    Not complicated. The complication is going to be high mileage owners having even greater incentive to hack their ECU to reduce the reported mileage & avoid paying the tax.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,463
    Taz said:

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    She can't demean her office any lower than it already is. But the woman to woman bit - "they attack you cos yer shit, not cos yer a woman woman!" - that's funny
    People who don’t like Badenoch think her response is awful.

    Well I’m shocked.

    I don't like her. But think her response was razor sharp and mockingly sarcastic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,717
    Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Customs duty imposed on all parcel deliveries whatever the size of parcel

    Removing the exemption for small packages has been tried elsewhere and resulted in customs delays, angry recipients, and smaller suppliers simply refusing to ship to those countries. And it has no measurable positive impact on domestic manufacturing.

    So Labour decided it's a top idea.

    Reeves would have to get smarter to be a moron.
    It’s also being used by larger importers to dodge paying import duties by breaking up their imports into zillions of small packages IIRC.

    Treasury probably feels (rightly I would guess) that the gain in preventing that is larger than the loss from consumers having to handle paying import duties on small packages.

    (quick google: BBC article suggests imports of £3billion are using the small parcel exception: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnv78eey8plo )
    Also the current system is unfair to UK importing companies aka employers who pay VAT. It's one thing to buy an import from say Ikea or Harrods and pay VAT but another to do it from wherever and not pay VAT.

    In practice a lot of the more reputable exporters charge and remit UK VAt anyway now on behalf of the customer so there are no further costs - including the processing fee which is often disproportionate (RM charge £10 or £16 which is a PITA for something costing maybe £30).
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,796
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    That wasn't what I heard, but I could be wrong.

    Was that not just the Cash ISA element to encourage equity investment?
    Yes the other £8k is available but must be put in a stocks and shares ISA (as referenced by others earlier this can be money market funds)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,460

    isam said:

    He’s right. Amazing what a bit of confidence does in any walk of life

    The transformation in Kemi Badenoch’s commons performances is incredible.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1993681263941620083?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Kemi's performance does raise the question once more of whether she is being sabotaged by her PMQs team.
    I think she’s just had lots of time to practice. Her speech at conference was good too. I think she gets thrown off course by Starmer, because she just gets waffle and she can’t think on her feet.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,888

    The budget was delivered to silent Labour benche’s, the only sounds really were the opposition gasps and laughter every time Rachel from accounts brazenly lied. Amazing optics. Labour benches so startlingly confused and horrified by their own leaderships budget.

    Whilst Starmer and Reeves sit there looking like failures and losers and soon to be gone, Kemi turns in her best ever performance, an absolute tour de force dismantling the budget, looking like a coming force in British politics.

    The utter incompetence of this Labour government laid bare, on the astonishing fact Labour spin team headed up by the most incompetence in number 10 in history wrote this LOTO speech weeks ago for Kemi, when usually it’s supposed to be difficult for opposition when don’t know what’s coming out the case shaped hat. Not so when facing this government front bench - the whole of the house should chant you don’t know what you’re doing at them.

    But apart from that what did you think? (ducks) 😀
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,953
    Scrapping of ECO scheme is notable.

    This has been notably successful over the last 12-14 years (ish).

    But the Cons slanted it towards owner occupiers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,600
    Abolishing class 2 NI’s for those living abroad I fully support. Well done Reeves. One bright spot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,767
    Phil said:

    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    What's the problem? Collect it at MOT. For cars too new, insist on a 2 minute appointment at an MOT centre where the number is read, but no inspection is done...
    Or just collect the difference between reported mileage & actual mileage at the 3 year MOT & publish the reported mileages through the same interface that lets you currently see the MOT record for a vehicle.

    That way second hand purchasers of a sub three year old vehicle can see whether they’re going to be stung with a mileage discrepancy tax & adjust the price they’d be willing to pay appropriately.

    Not complicated. The complication is going to be high mileage owners having even greater incentive to hack their ECU to reduce the reported mileage & avoid paying the tax.
    Re: hacking mileage

    @Dura_Ace to the Red courtesy phone. @Dura_Ace to the Red courtesy phone.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,717
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?

    So that you will direct your spare £££ towards our great British companies
    Nope - it’s going to end up in a moneymarket tracking fund
    Will be interesting to see how the new platforms to be on offer from the orgs Ms R mentions will deal with that. Could well obviate the unfamiliar/don't understand issues.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,279
    BBC2 cut from PMQs just before Ed Davey spoke. They then cut from the budget debate just before Ed Davey spoke. Do I see a pattern?
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