This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.
Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
A swallow does not a summer make. I think she gave a great response, but it is just a speech at the end of the day. But if the economy continues to flatline and starts to take more of a prominence in public debate, and if Reform start faltering, there are some conditions present for a modest Tory recovery to -potentially- begin.
Badenoch could do with that starting in the next 3-4 months really, to avoid a terrible May.
Could Jenrick have done that without putting off middle England? I doubt it.
Kemi can take aim at the ludicrous PC world we now live in, Farage and Jenrick can’t. For that reason, I think Reform and Tory voters should back her. She should be the figurehead, with Farage in a supporting role. I doubt he really wants to be PM anyway, but the accusations about him at school are believable as well as distasteful. I can forgive schoolboy banter, even if it crossed the line. I no doubt did a bit of it myself. But I don’t think it’s good for the right wing cause, or more importantly the country to have someone who kind of admits it to be PM. So, a black woman who I don’t 100% consider English it is!
Why don't you think Mr Farage wants to be PM? He seems pretty driven to me.
I think he’d rather help the country lean to his way of thinking than actually wield power. He used to quit as UKIP/BXP leader every five mins. To be honest I think the Dulwich College claims will harm him quite badly, and could be a hindrance to getting the kind of country he wants
The budget was delivered to silent Labour benche’s, the only sounds really were the opposition gasps and laughter every time Rachel from accounts brazenly lied. Amazing optics. Labour benches so startlingly confused and horrified by their own leaderships budget.
Whilst Starmer and Reeves sit there looking like failures and losers and soon to be gone, Kemi turns in her best ever performance, an absolute tour de force dismantling the budget, looking like a coming force in British politics.
The utter incompetence of this Labour government laid bare, on the astonishing fact Labour spin team headed up by the most incompetence in number 10 in history wrote this LOTO speech weeks ago for Kemi, when usually it’s supposed to be difficult for opposition when don’t know what’s coming out the case shaped hat. Not so when facing this government front bench - the whole of the house should chant you don’t know what you’re doing at them.
But apart from that what did you think? (ducks) 😀
I was just commenting on the politics, not the economics. The whole politics of this budget for months now from Labour has been bizarre, wrong and not the way it should be done. How could it accidentally be leaked when the worlds already had a live 24/7 Rachael Cam for months, watching her agonising over it, flip flop, flip flop back again, pile of screwed up ideas on paper mounting up behind her. The astonishing political optics is the entire Labour back bench not behind their own PM and his chancellor.
The economics of tax rises rather than borrowing probably satisfies the markets. And if I had a five year term I would likely do the same sort of budgets for the first 2 years - but all that gets drained out by mountains of media these days, this is last time you will hear anyone praise it this week. Even though Starmer and Rachael are working sensibly on a 5 year cycle, and it was good decision with lack of growth to go for tax rather than borrowing, they ain’t got five years, they ain’t got their own party on their side - so hastening Labour to destruction will be less sensible budgets later in the parliament.
This is the best I've seen Kemi Badenoch, and among the best opposition responses I've seen to a budget. Helped by the OBR leak no doubt, which gave her more time than most hand. But the blows are landing.
Its a bad budget for Reform. Not visible and will be harder to get themselves into the conversation.
Labour have the two child cap for their core vote, maybe stops some potential slippage to the Greens and "Your Party" or whatever, even though it is unpopular with the electorate as a whole.
The Tories have scored the easy goals available to the opposition when any Chancellor delivers a budget and finances are bad.
I think, for Reform, it’s probably a relief after the ‘Nigel said nasty things when he was 15’ stuff. Moves the news cycle on.
As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?
Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.
If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.
But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.
Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.
There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.
But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...
The problem is that the whole EV thing is rather built on sand. For a lot of users, their real cost is more than running an ICE car, but this is hidden in the tax arbitrage, with the UK taxpayer taking the financial hit and then some, whilst the user wins out.
Doing something by a more expensive route than necessary ultimately makes us poorer. That is objective fact. It may be worth it for other trade offs (eg reduced pollution), but that doesn't alter the direct costs. But politicans of all stripes have lied to us for the last 20 years, trying to tell us that EVs are cheaper to run compared to ICE cars, rather than that they are choosing to give EV owners a massive tax subsidy.
Now - it's possible for the true costs of an EV to be lower than an ICE - eg when charged off your home solar system - but for a lot of users, that won't be the case. E.g. anyone thinking of going EV via public charging is completely insane.
Morning! 1. EVs are cheaper to run. No real servicing. Less consumables - tyres, brakes etc 2. Most EVs do 8,500 miles a year so mostly charged at home not in public 3. Use Tesla superchargers to pay half the price of Ionity etc
1) Service on my ten year old oil burning barge is £30 in consumables, takes me 15 mins, officially every 20k miles, although I actually do the oil and filer every 10k. I've not done the brakes on the current car, but my previous one was on its third set of pads when it was written off at 168k miles. Probably not £100 every 50k miles. EVs wear tyes faster than the equivalent ICE because they are heavier. Service costs are only expensive because people insist on getting ripped off the dealerships, which is entirely their own stupid fault (and they will manage to still get ripped off the same way with EVs too).
2) As I said, depends on the use case. People who can't charge at home are completly mugged, which is a problem when pressing for wider adoption.
3) Even at half price on the most rip-off chargers, it's still cheaper to run a 2010ish era diesel than an EV, especially if you know how to drive halfway economically.
I think all three principals, Rachel, Kemi and Ed did well today, each in their own way.
Rachel delivered her complex speech in difficult circumstances and kept her composure. The markets have rallied. Kemi provided an excellent entertaining knockabout political speech. She has saved her job. Ed provided a thoughtful, well delivered speech that gave credit to Rachel where due, and offered improvements where needed. He will be ignored.
As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?
Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.
If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.
But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.
Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.
There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.
But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...
Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.
It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
EVED "will be paid alongside VED". Well, will it. Remember that VED is paid by the owner - which means very often that isn't the registered keeper. A lease car or company car? The company pays VED. But EVED is per mile based on the driver, so will be impossible to pay by the company. Which means many cats will have VED paid by one and EVED paid by another.
Confused? Yep. And even where its done online. How do you guess your miles? How do they enforce it? MOT? What about cars younger than 3 years? Would you have to get an MOT centre to validate the mileage when you sell a 2 year old car?
Incidentally, the 440k reduction in EVs on the road is a QUARTER of all EVs currently registered. I know its "by 2031" the year and not the time this evening, but even so, its a huge reduction.
Calculated charge from MOT (Or mileage on sale from v5c) less the previous MOT (Or purchase from v5c) added to the VED bill works doesn't it. Also I think you're overthinking the whole owners/keepers thing - the charge is going to simply be on the vehicle itself and will be paid for by same bod paying the VED.
OK. So I lease a car. VED is paid by the leaseco. Not the driver.
And MOT checks? Perhaps an annual check for EVs from year 1 to validate? Otherwise how does it work?
If this is true, that she had this belief in herself then it underlines just what a dud she is. Will preparation and scripting actually gloss over the absolute lack of ability. Perhaps but lets hope she never gets near power (again)
From April 2027, there will be a two percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax, increasing them to 22%, 42% and 47% respectively.
You will now be taxed more on any income from savings than on money earned via PAYE...and of course you already paid tax on that money when you first earned it in order to save it.
Customs duty imposed on all parcel deliveries whatever the size of parcel
Removing the exemption for small packages has been tried elsewhere and resulted in customs delays, angry recipients, and smaller suppliers simply refusing to ship to those countries. And it has no measurable positive impact on domestic manufacturing.
So Labour decided it's a top idea.
Reeves would have to get smarter to be a moron.
It’s also being used by larger importers to dodge paying import duties by breaking up their imports into zillions of small packages IIRC.
Treasury probably feels (rightly I would guess) that the gain in preventing that is larger than the loss from consumers having to handle paying import duties on small packages.
The idea large importers are abusing the system is mostly a myth spread by lobbyists working on behalf of large UK retailers. Shipping from China is cheap, but not that cheap. If I order, say, 20 reels of 3D printer filament from Temu or AliExpress at £10 a reel they do not send it in 5 or 10 separate packages, because that just isn't viable in terms of shipping costs. It comes in one big box.
Import duties on small value packages are often so small as to cost more to collect than they bring in. The exception is import VAT, but all the major importers already collect VAT on orders under £135 at time of sale and send it to HMRC, that is a legal requirement.
From April 2027, there will be a two percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax, increasing them to 22%, 42% and 47% respectively.
You will now be taxed more on any income from savings than on money earned via PAYE...and of course you already paid tax on that money when you first earned it in order to save it.
It's bringing back the investment income surcharge which existed under Labour in the 1970s and which was abolished by CON in 1979 (?)
As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?
Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.
If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.
But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.
Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.
There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.
But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...
The problem is that the whole EV thing is rather built on sand. For a lot of users, their real cost is more than running an ICE car, but this is hidden in the tax arbitrage, with the UK taxpayer taking the financial hit and then some, whilst the user wins out.
Doing something by a more expensive route than necessary ultimately makes us poorer. That is objective fact. It may be worth it for other trade offs (eg reduced pollution), but that doesn't alter the direct costs. But politicans of all stripes have lied to us for the last 20 years, trying to tell us that EVs are cheaper to run compared to ICE cars, rather than that they are choosing to give EV owners a massive tax subsidy.
Now - it's possible for the true costs of an EV to be lower than an ICE - eg when charged off your home solar system - but for a lot of users, that won't be the case. E.g. anyone thinking of going EV via public charging is completely insane.
Morning! 1. EVs are cheaper to run. No real servicing. Less consumables - tyres, brakes etc 2. Most EVs do 8,500 miles a year so mostly charged at home not in public 3. Use Tesla superchargers to pay half the price of Ionity etc
It's in any event a truism that EVs are not yet really an option for everyone. But they increasingly make sense for most people, and as battery costs fall further, and capacity continues to increase, will be literally for everyone.
The tax changes are a mess, but better now than making a mess of it several more years down the road.
From April 2027, there will be a two percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax, increasing them to 22%, 42% and 47% respectively.
You will now be taxed more on any income from savings than on money earned via PAYE...and of course you already paid tax on that money when you first earned it in order to save it.
It's bringing back the investment income surcharge which existed under Labour in the 1970s and which was abolished by CON in 1979 (?)
What do we want growth and investment, how are we going to get it, tax people more if they earn from investing....
This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.
Badenoch at 20s next PM is a decent trading bet imo. Don't think it is a winner as expect Starmer to be replaced ahead of the GE but can see it shortening significantly.
A swallow does not a summer make. I think she gave a great response, but it is just a speech at the end of the day. But if the economy continues to flatline and starts to take more of a prominence in public debate, and if Reform start faltering, there are some conditions present for a modest Tory recovery to -potentially- begin.
Badenoch could do with that starting in the next 3-4 months really, to avoid a terrible May.
Could Jenrick have done that without putting off middle England? I doubt it.
Kemi can take aim at the ludicrous PC world we now live in, Farage and Jenrick can’t. For that reason, I think Reform and Tory voters should back her. She should be the figurehead, with Farage in a supporting role. I doubt he really wants to be PM anyway, but the accusations about him at school are believable as well as distasteful. I can forgive schoolboy banter, even if it crossed the line. I no doubt did a bit of it myself. But I don’t think it’s good for the right wing cause, or more importantly the country to have someone who kind of admits it to be PM. So, a black woman who I don’t 100% consider English it is!
Why don't you think Mr Farage wants to be PM? He seems pretty driven to me.
I think he’d rather help the country lean to his way of thinking than actually wield power. He used to quit as UKIP/BXP leader every five mins. To be honest I think the Dulwich College claims will harm him quite badly, and could be a hindrance to getting the kind of country he wants
Hmm possibly. But he's been immersed in politics for decades, stood 7 times for parliament before making it, and now leads a party tracking for power. He looks hellbent on converting to me. I'd be astonished if he pulls back.
That's a big chunk of the Constellation programme, which is the one based on the French/Italian design, because the USA wanted a reliable, already in use, basis. But the USN managed to fook it to the extent that they changed most of the parts. This was supposed to be the easy and straight forward fix to their naval hole. And some say *we* have problems.
It's the naval version of Ajax. A bastardised version of something else, with so many changes it becomes a new design, crippled by the choices imposed by the original platform.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2025/nov/26/how-does-freezing-tax-thresholds-affect-your-own-tax-bill
Basically, people on around £50,000 get clobbered by the fiscal drag.
She’s improved she’s been taking advice about PMQs from Dave (pbuh)
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/04/29/kemi-badenoch-pmqs-advice-david-cameron/
Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
The economics of tax rises rather than borrowing probably satisfies the markets. And if I had a five year term I would likely do the same sort of budgets for the first 2 years - but all that gets drained out by mountains of media these days, this is last time you will hear anyone praise it this week.
Even though Starmer and Rachael are working sensibly on a 5 year cycle, and it was good decision with lack of growth to go for tax rather than borrowing, they ain’t got five years, they ain’t got their own party on their side - so hastening Labour to destruction will be less sensible budgets later in the parliament.
Andrew Neil, Jo Coburn and Dominic O'Connell - light years ahead of the BBC.
1/3 of all new MPs are from the charitable sector.
This explains A LOT.
https://x.com/mr_james_c/status/1993590947075309944
EVs wear tyes faster than the equivalent ICE because they are heavier.
Service costs are only expensive because people insist on getting ripped off the dealerships, which is entirely their own stupid fault (and they will manage to still get ripped off the same way with EVs too).
2) As I said, depends on the use case. People who can't charge at home are completly mugged, which is a problem when pressing for wider adoption.
3) Even at half price on the most rip-off chargers, it's still cheaper to run a 2010ish era diesel than an EV, especially if you know how to drive halfway economically.
His bed to lie in.
“Real equality means being held to the same standards as everyone else”
“Respect is earned”
If you missed Kemi, you need to watch this.
A 10/10 Commons performance
https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1993684625911148859?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Inflation forecast is higher than in March - despite Reeves announcements making it 0.4% lower than without announcements.
Mortgage rates forecast to rise significantly - despite BoE rate cuts.
Living standards forecast to rise by 0.5% per year (rose 1% per year under last Govt).
Taxes and Govt spending both 6% of GDP higher than pre pandemic.
Rachel delivered her complex speech in difficult circumstances and kept her composure. The markets have rallied.
Kemi provided an excellent entertaining knockabout political speech. She has saved her job.
Ed provided a thoughtful, well delivered speech that gave credit to Rachel where due, and offered improvements where needed. He will be ignored.
And MOT checks? Perhaps an annual check for EVs from year 1 to validate? Otherwise how does it work?
The devil as always is in the detail
You will now be taxed more on any income from savings than on money earned via PAYE...and of course you already paid tax on that money when you first earned it in order to save it.
Import duties on small value packages are often so small as to cost more to collect than they bring in. The exception is import VAT, but all the major importers already collect VAT on orders under £135 at time of sale and send it to HMRC, that is a legal requirement.
And did she actually coin the phrase "respect is earned" or is it in fact a hackneyed expression that has been in common usage for decades?
Not least because half of 'charitable sector' organisations are just lobbying organisations in disguise.
But they increasingly make sense for most people, and as battery costs fall further, and capacity continues to increase, will be literally for everyone.
The tax changes are a mess, but better now than making a mess of it several more years down the road.
A bastardised version of something else, with so many changes it becomes a new design, crippled by the choices imposed by the original platform.