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What the public expects from the budget – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,279
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    Gosh, I am surprised - an unusual view from you that we ought to take very seriously.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,593
    edited 1:57PM
    Pulpstar said:

    I get about 55 mpg (I think !) from my car, so that is 12 miles per litre.

    So to emulate a 3p per mile tax you'd need to increase fuel duty by 36p.

    Other half's car isn't quite as efficient but she does fewer miles - fuel duty would have to go up maybe 25-30p to replicate the 3p charge or so for us ?

    1.5p per mile for hybrids is massive compared to pure petrol or diesels quite honestly probably about equivalent of 15-20p hike (New cars are quite fuel efficient !)

    Fuel duty is currently 53p/l.

    To tax EVs equivalently to your car, would be 4.4p/mile.

    The main reason EVs are cheaper than ICE cars to run is the massive tax arbitrage. Take that away, and for people who can't charge at home, or who don't control their own electricity tarrif, they are significantly more expensive to run than a ICE.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,457

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    BiB - it's worse than that, though, isn't it? The actual cost of the electricity is higher than the cost of the diesel/petrol.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,902
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    She's saving her job.
    Yeah, think the takeaway is both Starmer and Badenoch survive 2026. The economy and social policy continues in zombie mode.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,714
    edited 1:57PM
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Yes getting their calcium
    Without added sugar and colouring, though - plus it's cheaper to buy plain milk.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,840
    This must increase chances of Badenoch staying in place to the GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,956
    £1.5bn by reducing the capital allowances on investment according to the BBC. Its genuinely difficult to think of a measure more destructive of future growth and productivity than that. I mean, WTF? We desperately need more investment, to make more in this country, to reduce the amount we import, to improve our poor productivity and to make this country an attractive place to invest compared with our competitors.

    *weeps softly*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,776
    maaarsh said:

    Lucky for Labour people will never see this - not voting Tory again but extremely good from Kemi

    Not sure about that, Kemi’s response is on BBC, Sky and GB news and was on ITV initially too
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,459
    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol
  • isamisam Posts: 43,110

    This is quite something from Badenoch. Reeves looks visibly shocked

    The way she ridiculed RR’s breakfast tv appearance was savage, and very funny.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,386
    ohnotnow said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    I was just thinking that. Much better performance than the chancellor who - in theory - should have been the star of the show.
    The scores for performance and logic for the opposition speech in response are generally uncorrelated. Credit for the performance, which will help her fend off the sharks all around, but beneath it there’s no real alternative strategy being put forward by the Tories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,718
    edited 2:00PM

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    "Nothing like a bit of girl on girl!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,498
    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Drinking milkshakes instead of booze.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,386

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Kemi is doing very well

    Really?

    I think she is making an awful whiny, shouty response that has little to do with the budget.
    She's saving her job.
    Yeah, think the takeaway is both Starmer and Badenoch survive 2026. The economy and social policy continues in zombie mode.
    That’s my instinctive betting position, but so far I haven’t been brave enough to do more than dabble in the pond.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,330

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,902
    HYUFD said:

    maaarsh said:

    Lucky for Labour people will never see this - not voting Tory again but extremely good from Kemi

    Not sure about that, Kemi’s response is on BBC, Sky and GB news and was on ITV initially too
    There are some good social media friendly gags in there. There will be a Tory boost. Of course Labour actually do far better with Tories and Reform on 25 each than they do with Reform on 30.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,949

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,317
    Kemi Badenoch doing herself a lot of good in this response

  • isamisam Posts: 43,110
    He’s right. Amazing what a bit of confidence does in any walk of life

    The transformation in Kemi Badenoch’s commons performances is incredible.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1993681263941620083?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,776
    Kemi says Reeves could have abolished stamp duty and business rates and been on the side of those setting up businesses but wasn’t
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,795
    Excellent by Kemi 👍
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,000
    HYUFD said:

    State pension increased in line with the triple lock

    You'll get the wails that (despite a generous settlement using triple lock) that the boomers will have to pay tax on it. It may even push some into the 45% tax bracket.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,386
    I’d guess that Reeves hasn’t had many calm fully sleeping nights recently, from the look of her.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,458
    Absolutely brilliant from Badenoch. Where has that politician been for the past 12 months?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,650
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Kemi says taxes on milkshakes is punishing people 'for doing the right thing'. Que?

    Yes getting their calcium
    Without added sugar and colouring, though - plus it's cheaper to buy plain milk.
    I just had a flashback to the late 70s and having a gloriously day-glo green "lime" milkshake on Blackpool promenade for breakfast. I suspect whatever was in it is probably illegal now - but boy, did it taste exciting as a child.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,840
    Chancellor normally responds to Leader of Opposition.

    But instead Reeves has left the Chamber.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,317

    I am loving Badenoch ranting across the dispatch box. This is fun! Especially the woman to woman stuff. "Is he mansplaining to you? Do you want some support?" lolol

    Really? It comes off as unpleasantly personal imho, demeans her office.
    Reeves did that entirely on her own by trying to hide behind misogyny and mansplaining
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,605
    Why is the ISA being reduced to £12k for under 65s?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,776

    Child benefit cap gone. I think this is the sum total of what this budget is about. Shore up Starmer and Reeves’ position and defer the sensible decisions for another day.

    For another government.

    They've got a working majority of 169 and they're a lame duck government that can't make any sensible decisions.

    Pathetic.
    They have made a decision, back to old Labour tax and spend but it is not a sensible one
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,792
    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    What's the problem? Collect it at MOT. For cars too new, insist on a 2 minute appointment at an MOT centre where the number is read, but no inspection is done...
  • eekeek Posts: 32,068
    MattW said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    Has a practical and robust way to collect this levy been identified yet?
    Nope because most of them would cost an insane amount to implement.

    It will be voluntary with checks at MOT and at time of sale because nothing else makes sense
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 594
    edited 2:04PM
    HYUFD said:

    Customs duty imposed on all parcel deliveries whatever the size of parcel

    Removing the exemption for small packages has been tried elsewhere and resulted in customs delays, angry recipients, and smaller suppliers simply refusing to ship to those countries. And it has no measurable positive impact on domestic manufacturing.

    So Labour decided it's a top idea.

    Reeves would have to get smarter to be a moron.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,459
    tlg86 said:

    As the resident EV geek ('I'm an influencer don'tcha know') can I boggle at the new tax?

    Park how it will work for a moment. The OBR forecasts that this will reduce the number of EVs on the road by 440k. That is huge. Massive. A literal torpedoing of their own policy.

    If you look at the maths its simple - you already pay 7p per mile in fuel duty on an average petrol car, so 3p a mile is cheaper.

    But the problem is that you pay fuel duty as a hidden tax when you fill up. You will pay EVED as well as VED at the start of the year. A special tax only for you. Where you have to fess up how many miles you do.

    Behaviourally this will have a serious effect on people. Who will then choose to pay more to pollute more.

    There are positives. Luxury Car tax now starts at £50k. So if you were buying a £45k car you would save £425 in VED - worth 14,166 miles at 3p.

    But you can't resolve emotional objections with facts. This is so stupid that its almost a Telegraph story...

    BiB - it's worse than that, though, isn't it? The actual cost of the electricity is higher than the cost of the diesel/petrol.
    Average annual mileage is c. 7,000. Most EVs are fuelled at home most of the time - leccy is cheaper, the vat you pay on that cheaper is also cheaper.
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