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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015
Brimington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 43, Conservatives 18, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 1,857 (69%), Conservatives 301 (11%), Liberal Democrats 250 (9%), Independent (Mullins) 175 (6%), Independent (Mann) 119 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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Comments
No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.
I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.
So what is going on?
There are a lot of money makers out there who work the markets, spot the trends, adjust from knowledge, but who don't shout loud on political betting.
Very very safe Labour
The best way for Labour to defeat Ukip is to stand for common ownership.Rail is clearly where the public are in terms of creating a Peoples Railway.Nationalisation need not be a dirty word any more.This is the sort of policy to inspire people to vote Labour in Derbyshire.Never forget Bombardier.
I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.
Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.
So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.
Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.
So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.
Does anyone have those vote shares?
Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.
Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
I think stjohn also makes a good point about the mood music.
Fundamentally, though, it's about focus. Punters, and the media, are finally getting round to consider the election as an imminent reality.
The big question is whether voters in general will follow as the election nears. That is the big question for betting on this GE.
I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
So much for the LAB ground game.
Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.
Got thrashed as LD in 2011
Stood for UKIP in 2012 got thrashed
Stood as independent in 2013 got thrashed
Tried to join Lab party in 2013 (rejected)
Mick Bagshaw is a complete w*****er.
Manges to keep getting in local paper campaigning next to every pothole in Chesterfield
That's it all sewn up then. No need to go to the polling booths really is there?
You keep mentioning this magical 11.4% lead. But that assumes voting patterns and densities fall exactly the same as last time. And the landscape has changed massively since 2010GE. It doesn't even factor in any incumbency bonus.
I put it to you that if the Tories clock up a lead like that over Labour this time, they will be close to (or even have) an overall majority.
LAB + SNP + SF =
PULLINGGAWAYINJANUARYLOLAMENDOUS!
Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)
Never played Kalooki, I'm afraid. My repertoire is rather limited: Bridge and its nearest relatives (Piquet, German Whist, Hearts, Oh Hell!) and the Canastas (Gin Rummy, Succession).
The best game I played was Succession - basically Rummy with the Kings & Queens of England (each House representing a suit). I genuinely think it should be encouraged in schools as a way to learn history!
I asked earlier - does anyone know the vote share cut-off point for 40 Lab gains from Con under UNS (or 50 if we allow for Kellner).
This is surely the key information required for anyone making this bet - I'm surprised nobody on here appears to know it!
The 11.4% is based on constant efficiency of vote. Labour's advantage will be greatly diminished this time round.
Always sounds like an excuse to make a punt sound more snazzy than it is to me
I expect UNS not to function well. Labour will have a lot of seconds in Scotland, UKIP in SE England.
I think that will level the playing field significantly. FPTP may turn out quite proportional, at least for the big two.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?nodeId=MENU:2707982&id=1.101416490
;-)
If so, then there's a humongously good betting opportunity sitting right in front of you. Forget Lab vs Con; the stand-out bet, if you think that not much will change from the current opinion polls, is to bet on a near-wipeout of Labour in Scotland. You can play it several ways, such as buying the SNP on the spreads, or the lower-risk way of taking the 5/6 on SNP over 39.5 seats. Admittedly it's nothing like as good a bet as when this Tory punter advised buying the SNP on SPIN at 20.5 a few weeks ago, but the margin of safety, if you think not much will change, is still very big.
On the other hand, perhaps you think, quite reasonably, that when, push comes to shove, the SNP won't do as well as the polls currently show. That's quite possible. However, that exact reasoning has implications for other markets as well.
Pre-Scotland I was assuming hung parliament / LLP. Now I'm leaning towards Coalitious Redux.
Where did it all go wrong?
No, that's not it. The real action starts in March is all.
I actually would be glad to see an inexplicable and rapid shift to the Tories, it'd be really entertaining and create some proper doubt (in my mind at least) about the outcome which doesn't rely on the depressing possibilities in the North.
Fair enough if they need to have two women on, but they could have accepted Steven Woolfe (UKIP s replacement for Evans) and nished Freedland
Personally I think the betting markets have over-reacted to the Scottish Ashcroft survey and we will see a correction. As Richard N observes, the survey didn't tell us anything we didn't already suspect. What's happened is that people who don't follow these things that closely have said "What! Wow, that means Labour's doomed." But in England, things are (contrary to my earlier flutter of nervousness) not moving.
Hope Mike hasn't backed against CON!
That means the cut-off is a Con lead 8% LOWER than in 2010,
ie a Con lead of 11.4% - 8.0% = 3.4% in ENGLAND.
So, assuming UNS, and other assumption re SNP:
- OGH wins his bet if Con lead is less than 3.4% IN ENGLAND
- OGH loses his bet if Con lead is more than 3.4% IN ENGLAND
And that 3.4% figure falls a bit with any incumbency bonus as per Kellner.
I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.
£0/+£140 something like that.
This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.
UKIP were into 9/4 in Dover and touted as a decent bet
Now have now drifted to 9/2
However a 1% Labour lead is actually the same as a 3-4% lead if scotland hadn't turned into Salmondlandia.
To work out the effect of scotland the simplest way is to have a 5.5% (for a 3.5% lead) swing to Labour in UNS and then subtract the scottish labour seats from the total.
The result is 346-41=305 Labour seats (the same as the Tories in 2010).
She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...
The SNP can put anyone in Inverness and still win.
http://labourlist.org/2013/01/labours-106-battleground-target-seats-for-2015/
@iainmartin1: Tristram Hunt going for the anti-nun vote there. @bbcquestiontime