politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

Misreading and over reacting

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

JKenny said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

Misreading and over reacting

Hmmm.

There are a lot of money makers out there who work the markets, spot the trends, adjust from knowledge, but who don't shout loud on political betting.

Are there? Betting on politics is like the FA Vase of the betting industry.. not many people are interested and it takes about a tenner to move a market

Thanks to Harry.Detailed analysis,such as Thresher and Rawlings,of local election results remains a constant despite the revolution of UNS,a good guide to the outcome of GE2015.Before this we have the trends guys best opportunities of the year at Cheltenham.
The best way for Labour to defeat Ukip is to stand for common ownership.Rail is clearly where the public are in terms of creating a Peoples Railway.Nationalisation need not be a dirty word any more.This is the sort of policy to inspire people to vote Labour in Derbyshire.Never forget Bombardier.

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

92 days and no removal van required!

Bloody Hell less than a mile away and I hadnt a clue it was happening

So much for the LAB ground game.

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.

I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

One of tonights candidates was my LD councillor in 2010

Got thrashed as LD in 2011

Stood for UKIP in 2012 got thrashed

Stood as independent in 2013 got thrashed

Tried to join Lab party in 2013 (rejected)

Mick Bagshaw is a complete w*****er.

Manges to keep getting in local paper campaigning next to every pothole in Chesterfield

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.

I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

Fair enough, but I don't think it's a good trading bet. Sorry. I think the Labour rating will at best stabilise at the current level; more likely than not - it will deteriorate. Please: don't waste your money.

You keep mentioning this magical 11.4% lead. But that assumes voting patterns and densities fall exactly the same as last time. And the landscape has changed massively since 2010GE. It doesn't even factor in any incumbency bonus.

I put it to you that if the Tories clock up a lead like that over Labour this time, they will be close to (or even have) an overall majority.

GIN1138 said:

So Ave-It and Jack's ARSE are both in agreement that we'll have a continuation of Con-Dem government after the next election!!!!!!

That's it all sewn up then. No need to go to the polling booths really is there?

It's all over now!

LAB + SNP + SF =

LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

Snigger.... Redgasm.

Tonights YG EICIPM

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.

I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

Sure but you need approx 40 Lab gains to win your bet, not just one Lab gain.

I asked earlier - does anyone know the vote share cut-off point for 40 Lab gains from Con under UNS (or 50 if we allow for Kellner).

This is surely the key information required for anyone making this bet - I'm surprised nobody on here appears to know it!

Back in early October the Tories had 3 consecutive CON leads - something that's not been repeated since

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.

I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

Fair enough, but I don't think it's a good trading bet. Sorry. I think the Labour rating will at best stabilise at the current level; more likely than not - it will deteriorate. Please: don't waste your money.

You keep mentioning this magical 11.4% lead. But that assumes voting patterns and densities fall exactly the same as last time. And the landscape has changed massively since 2010GE. It doesn't even factor in any incumbency bonus.

I put it to you that if the Tories clock up a lead like that over Labour this time, they will be close to (or even have) an overall majority.

I'd like to know why people keep using the phrase "trading bet".. which bets aren't trading bets then? These would be bets that you wouldn't ever lay off?

Always sounds like an excuse to make a punt sound more snazzy than it is to me

TGOHF said:

compouter2 said:

NickPalmer said:

LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

Double swingback/crossover :-)

Huppert HOLD !

Cambridge LAB gain IMO

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

OGH. This is a general view you hold as if all Conservative posters on here have lemming like tendencies. As the PB person with the most accurate forecast of LD cllr losses in 2012...... what do I know? I just cannot see how the LDs keep 30+ seats with a UK vote share of 9% or 10%. There are all these extra Green candidates in 2015.... But, OGH's optimism on LD incumbency has acted as a deterent to betting much against the LDs. Good night.

Looking at AndyJS's spreadsheet, it looks as if Labour will make those sorts of gains with a con lead of less than 7.5% UNS.

I expect UNS not to function well. Labour will have a lot of seconds in Scotland, UKIP in SE England.

I think that will level the playing field significantly. FPTP may turn out quite proportional, at least for the big two.

MikeL said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Yes, all very sensible points to make.

I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.

Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.

So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.

Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.

So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.

Does anyone have those vote shares?

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.

Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.

I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

It's been challenged several times, most eloquently by @DavidL.

The 11.4% is based on constant efficiency of vote. Labour's advantage will be greatly diminished this time round.

It would certainly have to be given the Tories don't seem like getting anywhere near that 11.4%. Were it not for Scotland I'd call it near impossible, but it still seems like the Tories need to get pretty lucky to have Labour so diminished in England - surely the Tories should have at least gotten close to that 11.4% figure on a couple of occasions to make the reliance on not needing it this time (they hope) less urgent?

The thing is, do you believe the polls as at today are a good indication of the final result, or not?

If so, then there's a humongously good betting opportunity sitting right in front of you. Forget Lab vs Con; the stand-out bet, if you think that not much will change from the current opinion polls, is to bet on a near-wipeout of Labour in Scotland. You can play it several ways, such as buying the SNP on the spreads, or the lower-risk way of taking the 5/6 on SNP over 39.5 seats. Admittedly it's nothing like as good a bet as when this Tory punter advised buying the SNP on SPIN at 20.5 a few weeks ago, but the margin of safety, if you think not much will change, is still very big.

On the other hand, perhaps you think, quite reasonably, that when, push comes to shove, the SNP won't do as well as the polls currently show. That's quite possible. However, that exact reasoning has implications for other markets as well.

A 1% Labour lead and a few of the PB Hodges get tetchy. God help us if it was 4-5% there would be a riot.

compouter2 said:

Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

Where did it all go wrong?

It was nonsense?

No, that's not it. The real action starts in March is all.

I actually would be glad to see an inexplicable and rapid shift to the Tories, it'd be really entertaining and create some proper doubt (in my mind at least) about the outcome which doesn't rely on the depressing possibilities in the North.

compouter2 said:

Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

Where did it all go wrong?

I'd rather believe Ave-It and Jack's ARSE over some johnny come lately opinion polling group, so there!

GIN1138 said:

compouter2 said:

Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

Where did it all go wrong?

I'd rather believe Ave-It and Jack's ARSE over some johnny come lately opinion polling group, so there!

:-)

foxinsoxuk said:

Looking at AndyJS's spreadsheet, it looks as if Labour will make those sorts of gains with a con lead of less than 7.5% UNS.

I expect UNS not to function well. Labour will have a lot of seconds in Scotland, UKIP in SE England.

I think that will level the playing field significantly. FPTP may turn out quite proportional, at least for the big two.

MikeL said:

stjohn said:

MikeL said:

Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

So what is going on?

I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....

Yes, all very sensible points to make.

I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.

Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.

So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.

Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.

So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.

Does anyone have those vote shares?

Interesting analyses. My main query would be the Kellner assumption of incumbency bonus. There is repeated polling evidence that it isn't happening this time - nearly every Ashcroft poll (indeed some show a negative incumbency effect), the Scottish polls and a lot of anecdotal experience. One can debate why this might be - a possible reason is the generally grouchy mood, which prevents sitting MPs from getting a generla feeling of "let's give them another chance" goodwill - but if that's right, then the Tory largest party level requires fewer than 43 Labour gains in England.

Personally I think the betting markets have over-reacted to the Scottish Ashcroft survey and we will see a correction. As Richard N observes, the survey didn't tell us anything we didn't already suspect. What's happened is that people who don't follow these things that closely have said "What! Wow, that means Labour's doomed." But in England, things are (contrary to my earlier flutter of nervousness) not moving.

I'm quite relaxed!

Hope Mike hasn't backed against CON!

RodCrosby said:

The seat is Stevenage (8% Tory lead).

Yes, but to be clear, Con won Stevenage by 8% in 2010.

That means the cut-off is a Con lead 8% LOWER than in 2010,

ie a Con lead of 11.4% - 8.0% = 3.4% in ENGLAND.

So, assuming UNS, and other assumption re SNP:

- OGH wins his bet if Con lead is less than 3.4% IN ENGLAND
- OGH loses his bet if Con lead is more than 3.4% IN ENGLAND

And that 3.4% figure falls a bit with any incumbency bonus as per Kellner.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MikeSmithson said:

The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

What do you think of her, Mike?

Not sure what Mike thinks but...

I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.

£0/+£140 something like that.

MikeSmithson said:

The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

The youngest member of parliament, you can't get any younger than that.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MikeSmithson said:

The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

What do you think of her, Mike?

I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

Ave_it said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MikeSmithson said:

The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

What do you think of her, Mike?

Not sure what Mike thinks but...

I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.

£0/+£140 something like that.

More chance of Oona Chaplin marrying me than that girl winning there. 100-1 she won't get within 20%

This is precisely why I've taken my stake out. But she still has a good chance and I don't fancy paying more Bookie over-round than is neccesary.

There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

compouter2 said:

A 1% Labour lead and a few of the PB Hodges get tetchy. God help us if it was 4-5% there would be a riot.

If the Labour lead was 4-5% now with yougov then they would be extremely nervous.
However a 1% Labour lead is actually the same as a 3-4% lead if scotland hadn't turned into Salmondlandia.
To work out the effect of scotland the simplest way is to have a 5.5% (for a 3.5% lead) swing to Labour in UNS and then subtract the scottish labour seats from the total.

The result is 346-41=305 Labour seats (the same as the Tories in 2010).

MikeSmithson said:

This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.

What to do, even up my profit there by backing Labour at 5-4 ?

She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...

MikeSmithson said:

The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

Perhaps the crowd reaction (and the history of Paisley) should indicate that this might be a positive to her campaign.

The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT

sorry target seat 67.Watford is 61.Bedford is 24,where Mike's partner was polled and Broxtowe is 8..I guess Lord A is starting to look at those further down the target list.

Mortimer said:

The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT

@hugorifkind: Quite surprised how much the audience dislike Tristram Hunt. #bbcqt

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.

What to do, even up my profit there by backing Labour at 5-4 ?

She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...

I think you're fine with your current position, you've effectively got infinite odds on the SNP in a seat they might well win.

AndrewP said:

Speedy said:

The latest constituency poll for Stevenage has a Labour lead of 5%: LAB 38, CON 33, UKIP 18, LD 7, GRN 3.

The same constituency polls show the Tories holding or tied in 5 out 6 of the seats before Stevenage in order of CON-LAB margin though.

Stevenage no 58.

http://labourlist.org/2013/01/labours-106-battleground-target-seats-for-2015/

@alstewitn: #BBCQT I don't think the '@CristinaOhq v @TristramHuntMP' on who taught Cristina will end well...

@iainmartin1: Tristram Hunt going for the anti-nun vote there. @bbcquestiontime

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT

@hugorifkind: Quite surprised how much the audience dislike Tristram Hunt. #bbcqt

He has the wonderful characteristic of never failing to disappoint.....

With my suspicion of younger candidates - even though I acknowledge it can work out just fine - and dislike of the idea of voting at 16 having been in place even when I was younger than the SNP candidate, I wonder if that means I am growing into my eventual grumpy old man persona, or if it is a view that stretches across age boundaries.