politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Halla
Comments
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Checking my spreadsheet I have a whole £7 on Coatbridge at 3-1.Pulpstar said:
Thanks,antifrank said:
Bear in mind that the polls may well understate the SNP's position, because it was compiled by reference to respondents' recall of their vote in 2010 (some respondents will be confused by the 2011 election, where far more voters opted for the SNP).Pulpstar said:From the poll, doubt SNP will gain Glasgow NE,
And East, North, South look safe enough SNP to me
SW and NW could both be tight
Central probably stays SNP whatever the weather but if Labour put in enough work isn't outside reach.
But that looks like an accurate enough summary of the way in which the seats might swing back to Labour.
I'll let my big fat Cumbernauld bet ride then, and won't hedge out of the 3-1 £50 I have on Coatbridge.
Coatbridge coming in would be the icing on the cake.
Hedging would get me £4 net. I'm following your fine example and letting it ride.
I have 7 £10 pounds best, 1 each, on the Glasgow constituencies, max Net Return is £227 if they all come in - can hedge out for £78 net. 111% return on my money risk free sounds pretty good. . .
But I'm going to let them ride!
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I think if we started prosecuting FGM aggressively, its incidence would drop so quickly that we wuldn't have to worry.taffys said:Yes - that sort of feeble response is why we have the problem.
But you are looking at a 10-years ago solution to the problem. There are 60,000 FGM kids, right? social services would have a meltdown.
How many Perps are there in this Asian taxi driver rape scandal?
Our prison population might have to double. Let alone the court/police/.probation time0 -
Comfortably.Dair said:
Is Cable going to survive the election?peter_from_putney said:
You mean Cable and Farron will simply deliver the LibDem rump to Labour on a plate?antifrank said:On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
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Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MPCasino_Royale said:
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.antifrank said:On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Danny Alexander will be an ex MP
David Laws might be a surprise ex MP
Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too
Sal Brinton is not an MP
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Yes, but will he hold Twickenham?JackW said:
Comfortably.Dair said:
Is Cable going to survive the election?peter_from_putney said:
You mean Cable and Farron will simply deliver the LibDem rump to Labour on a plate?antifrank said:On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.0 -
I need you campaigning hard in Edinburgh East !Alistair said:
Checking my spreadsheet I have a whole £7 on Coatbridge at 3-1.Pulpstar said:
Thanks,antifrank said:
Bear in mind that the polls may well understate the SNP's position, because it was compiled by reference to respondents' recall of their vote in 2010 (some respondents will be confused by the 2011 election, where far more voters opted for the SNP).Pulpstar said:From the poll, doubt SNP will gain Glasgow NE,
And East, North, South look safe enough SNP to me
SW and NW could both be tight
Central probably stays SNP whatever the weather but if Labour put in enough work isn't outside reach.
But that looks like an accurate enough summary of the way in which the seats might swing back to Labour.
I'll let my big fat Cumbernauld bet ride then, and won't hedge out of the 3-1 £50 I have on Coatbridge.
Coatbridge coming in would be the icing on the cake.
Hedging would get me £4 net. I'm following your fine example and letting it ride.
I have 7 £10 pounds best, 1 each, on the Glasgow constituencies, max Net Return is £227 if they all come in - can hedge out for £78 net. 111% return on my money risk free sounds pretty good. . .
But I'm going to let them ride!
Maybe.0 -
Why on earth do you think that Steve Webb could be an ex-MP? Lord Ashcroft found a large swing TO him from the Conservatives:rcs1000 said:
Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MPCasino_Royale said:
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.antifrank said:On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Danny Alexander will be an ex MP
David Laws might be a surprise ex MP
Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too
Sal Brinton is not an MP
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thornbury-yate/0 -
And there was I imagining that he was going to stride in and yell Hello It's Good To Be Back.Sean_F said:0 -
Thanks for that Nigel. I can't say I'm greatly enthused by many of these, the standout value for me would be Derby to win the Championship. This looks like a three horse race of roughly equal contenders, suggesting fair value of 2/1 for each, so 3/1 for the current joint leader looks like a good bet.nigel4england said:
Sorry Peter I forgot to post the link!peter_from_putney said:
Where do |I find these bets?nigel4england said:A few football bets for the remainder of the season that look reasonable, A few boys on here will be pleased to see number nine, and even as a Chelsea fan I think that is great value.
I am on number three at 7/1
http://www.football365.com/topical-top-10/9698048/Stoke-To-Win-Cup-And-Other-Big-Bets...
I've got Koeman at 8/1 for LMA of the Year, but they are right looking at the past winners it's an old pals act, might hedge Fat Sam
Disclaimer: I'm a lifelong fan of the Rams!0 -
The World of 70s TV and Politics is looking increasingly like the Wilkinson home for boys in SleepersSean_F said:0 -
Why? Awareness? Tweets? What the hell are those going to do? Make those who sign and join the campaign feel good, no doubt. This is the sort of politics which thinks that saying something is the same as doing something.logical_song said:
Looks like you've got completely the wrong end of the stick.Cyclefree said:
Yes - that sort of feeble response is why we have the problem. We should just do it. And face down those who object. In my book people who do - or allow this to be done - to their daughters are child abusers. I have no interest in their objections. I would rather they learnt why it must not be done and ceased of their own accord but if that does not work then we must take sterner measures.AndyJS said:About a year ago it was put to Lynne Featherstone on Newsnight that at-risk girls should be checked by doctors to establish whether they had been subjected to FGM, as they do in France. Her response was to say something like "we couldn't possibly do that". The problem is if that's the only way to tackle the problem it has to be done no matter how objectionable some people may find it. If you simply ask people, of course they're going to deny it if they know they're going to be in serious trouble.
I don't know how someone like that - who is concerned with the relative triviality of girls oppressed by size zero models in magazines - can ignore the immeasurable suffering that these girls endure, not just at the time, but for the rest of their lives. How can someone who claims to be concerned about women, who has the chance to do something about it in politics, sleep at night?
http://www.lynnefeatherstone.org/2014/02/join-my-campaign-to-end-fgm-in-a-generation.htm
Action is what's needed: nurse inspection in schools is a bloody good place to start. We used to have them when I was a child.
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So what would you do? Nothing?taffys said:Yes - that sort of feeble response is why we have the problem.
But you are looking at a 10-years ago solution to the problem. There are 60,000 FGM kids, right? social services would have a meltdown.
How many Perps are there in this Asian taxi driver rape scandal?
Our prison population might have to double. Let alone the court/police/.probation time
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little."
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I'd say he should be castrated but I don't think I can bear to see the Tories on here defend himSean_F said:
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Well, it's a view I suppose. Up there with Belfast East being gerrymandered to deliver a seat to the Alliance Party though.Dair said:The inevitability of the UK's bankruptcy over pensions is probably the most important factor in my determination to get Scotland out the UK as soon as possible.
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You're right to change your mind about Featherstone's chances of hanging on but I think Steve Webb is safe as houses. Or if he's in trouble we really are in black cab territory.rcs1000 said:
Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MPCasino_Royale said:
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.antifrank said:On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Danny Alexander will be an ex MP
David Laws might be a surprise ex MP
Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too
Sal Brinton is not an MP
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Not much point while he's in jail. If he were ever deemed safe enough to release otherwise, I wouldn't have a huge problem with it being made a condition of his release that he was chemically castrated. But you should be aware that castration does not stop abusers from abusing.isam said:0 -
Argh . My phone keeps crashing every time I try to reply to antifrank or rcs1000! Lost four posts in a row..0
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Replied to you on the new thread Very lonely there at the momentisam said:0 -
DavidL said:
Another 20 charged: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-31151445
The government is accused of doing nothing but the courts are going to grind to a halt at this rate.
Those charged in Newcastle with rape, sexual exploitation, drug or other offences, but not yet tried of course are:
Eisa Mousavi
Monjur Choudhury
Redwan Siddquee
Mohammed Hassan Ali,
Abdulhamid Minoyee
Ebrahim Ali Habibur Rahim
Ibrahim Rousel
Mohammed Khalique
Mohammed Azram
Nadeem Aslam
Prabhat Nelli
Taherul Alam
Yassar Hussain
Jahangir Zaman
Badrul Hussain
Abdul Sabe
Karzan Mohammed
Saiful Islam
Nashir Uddin0 -
Maybe we should just legalise crime?taffys said:Yes - that sort of feeble response is why we have the problem.
But you are looking at a 10-years ago solution to the problem. There are 60,000 FGM kids, right? social services would have a meltdown.
How many Perps are there in this Asian taxi driver rape scandal?
Our prison population might have to double. Let alone the court/police/.probation time
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Pensions will be abolished in a few years ... that is the whole point of auto-enrolment. Give it about 10 years and whoever is in government will say "everybody has their own pension so there is no need fo the state one to contnue beyond x date"0
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Yes but as Money Purchase pensions are virtually worthless, it's hardly going to work. Nationalising a business pension obligations has failed.dellertronic said:Pensions will be abolished in a few years ... that is the whole point of auto-enrolment. Give it about 10 years and whoever is in government will say "everybody has their own pension so there is no need fo the state one to contnue beyond x date"
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