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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question
The single Survation question: “Let’s say the General Election was tomorrow. Which party would you vote for in your Sheffield Hallam constituency?”
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I do wonder if Clegg's toxicity with the left-leaning Hallamites (Hallamonians?) will be an incumbency drag, rather than bonus.
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
Ms May
Take one of the most read stories on the bbc website - kids no longer showering after PE. I was kinda surprised such an inane story was so high up the "most read" story list, but it did get me thinking. IIRC, the article covered the *kids having insecurities* explanation for not bothering to shower, but it said nothing about why teachers don't expect/make sure the kids shower any more. Then it occurred to me - If you're a PE teacher, you're probably not going to want to go anywhere near teenage kids showering, or even broach the showering issue at all. The potential for *nudge nudge wink wink* rumours is huge. A single false allegation would be devastating.
Consequence = smelly teenagers.
"Kenneth CLARKE becomes temporary LEADER, what a.. err.. Fan-TAST-ic turn of ahfairs!"
The others won't allow it.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
The Tories and Labour are tied on around 275 seats each, there's 30 LibDems, 20 SNP and 3 UKIP. The only real option for a viable Government is a Grand Coalition Lab/Con or is it Con/Lab. They fight for 2 weeks, the markets get jittery. Cameron won't give way to Miliband. Miliband won't give way to Cameron. Eventually they ask Nick Clegg to be PM in a Government of All the Talents. Tory MPs walk around with legs crossed.
Well I did say it was jokey!
................the Israelis: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933921/British-soldiers-equipped-state-art-battle-helmets-Stormtrooper-look.html
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/whats-more-important-to-voters-coherent-policy-or-the-chance-to-send-a-message/
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/
Another interesting seat is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I know virtually nothing about it other than a Unionist unity candidate backed by both the DUP and Conservatives came within 4 votes of being elected in GE2010. If he had won, he had pledged to take the Conservative whip on national (UK non-NI) issues.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.
I suspect it's also what TSE wants to do to Mark Reckless in R&S.
The dozen Lib Dem gains is far far far more likely than only 10 losses to Labour or so.
Regardless, they're actually being made in Canada, but the contracted supplier happens to be an Israeli company.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ballot+paper+name+order
My prediction remains for the Tories in the low 290s.
I think it is true that Labour has less business support than it has had since the early 70s and that most or all of the lessons taught by Blair and Mandleson on how to win an election have been forgotten. The important question, however, is does this matter?
Mr Warner says: "No doubt there is a constituency for this kind of stuff, but it is probably not big enough to secure a majority."
I fear he may be wrong about that or at least there are enough people who think that way to make Labour the largest party. There are a significant number of people in this country who do not see the connection between the fat cats of the City and the provision of public services; who believe that the State can somehow provide its own resources; who don't accept the consequences of the mobility of capital; who don't accept that there should be a correlation between what is paid for a job and its economic worth; who are more interested in the distribution of the cake than its baking.
The more intelligent of those who fundamentally believe this point to the innumerable flaws of the current system: the inequality; the inconsistency between needing to incentivise the rich and penalise the poor; how unfairly the benefits of globalisation have been allocated and the moral hypocrisy of those who think clever tax avoidance is somehow ok.
It is hard to disagree with many of these critiques but are we really going to elect a PM who thinks that way? That is what we are being asked to do. Yesterday's PMQs was a case in point. Is Labour really going to risk London's standing as the financial centre of Europe generating billions of tax revenues by trying to slap on extra taxes like stamp duty on the transfer of shares? 5 questions on the same point and a promise to keep asking it. He thinks he is on a winner and with those that think the way I have described he just might be.
IIRC, when Michael martin sought reelection as speaker (the labour party wasn't on the ballot paper) - his vote went down & the socialist labour party a pile of votes, despite not campaigning at all.
The ballot paper can confuse voters, obviously.
Even if there is a little party logo, I can see the potential for some hundreds of voters to make a silly error between the two Cleggs - in a tight race this might actually have an impact.
The MoD has hosed billions over the years, buying overpriced and poorly engineered UK built kit in procurement projects that over ran by years, with nothing delivered, when they could have bought off the shelf for less, from overseas.
It's good to see that someone's got the message, that British isn't necessarily best.
"... why on earth can't they manufacture the helmets in Britain?"
Market forces?
"One thing connected these three young men who died in the river and that was they were so paralytically drunk they were not in control of their bodies. They have then walked or stumbled into the river.
"Some people are saying this means we have to fence off the river. No we don't.
"What we need to look at is the personal responsibility of young men and women who are coming away to university, starting their lives and who need to behave a bit more socially responsibly.
"I was incensed when I heard some representatives of the student body saying the answer is for more police officers. It is ludicrous that society is asking me to put police officers on the riverbank to stop bright young things falling in. What sort of world have we come to?"
Too right. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-31145108
A chap can't help his name, though someone changing to Nigel Garage and standing in the same constituency would also be dodgy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Granted they are lower than everybody else's, but I do have some.
In today's Times, page 5:
"Lance Armstrong could face up to 90 days in jail after he hit two parked cars while driving home from a party and then allegedly letting his girlfriend take the blame".
"There are still those working in the media who keep mixing up the Miliband brothers!"
That's one of those self fulfilling prophecies, the one thing in your mind that you shouldn't say.....is the first thing that automatically pops into your mind.
(Oh, and don't mention the war?)
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...
I'd prefer to see protective gear bought for our troops because it's the best at saving their lives, rather than because it has a 'Made in Britain' sticker on the inside, wouldn't you?
There is an onus on our armed forces to put everything out to tender these days, and has been so since before WW1.
(It's why we nearly ran out of artillery shells in the early days of the conflict)
i) Raise the deposit to at least £1k or £2k. If it had kept pace with inflation since 1918 it should be at least £6k. Perhaps combine this with a reduction in the threshold to about 3%.
ii) Maybe adopt the continental system where each party has a separate ballot paper, and you first choose the paper, then mark it, then put it in an envelope.
I suspect a substantial chunk of those 5% who moved into a constituency in late 2010 have since moved out again.
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.
That explains a lot.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Atkins
There may well be enough voters who agree with him or, at least, think that there are enough "bad" people to bear the pain that it won't affect them. I fear they will face a rude awakening.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
@sajidjavid opens address to #pressgallery: 'I have today agreed to let my name go forward for the leadership of... Oops, wrong speech"
For example on FGM she correctly reports the number of cases reported (which is horrific) but fails to mention that overwhelmingly these crimes were committed overseas, often many years ago. Massive effort are being made in communities up and down the UK to stop young girls being taken abroad for cutting - these efforts are led by women within those communities.
Similarly on Rotherham, the Casey report (which I've read) finds other issues apart from the ethnicity of the perpetrators to be important as well, not least the bullying attitude of senior Cllrs and the widespread misogyny. The girls involved were regarded are partly to blame, regrettably this victim blaming continues and is not restricted to any community.
Finally on the slaughterhouse issue she appears to complain that the actions of the slaughtermen is tolerated, but then mentions that criminal prosecutions are likely. She can't have it both ways.
By all means write a polemic, and there is plenty to be angry about, but at least allow your argument to have some rational base.
(No comment on Tower Hamlets, politics in East London has been like that for generations regardless of the ethnicity of those involved....)
Has anyone read it? Is it worth picking up a copy?
It will become thought-provoking when a Cameron or a Milliband or a Clegg says the same things and implements some action to deal with it. When Hammond, for instance, a year or so back said much the same thing as the Tower Hamlets shopkeeper quoted in the article, he was howled down and forced to issue the usual ludicrous non-apology apology.
So what do the CPS do? They prosecute a doctor who had simply sown up a woman after a normal operation. True idiocy. But easier than tackling the real problem.
Interesting, very interesting.
Politics could be quite rough, but didn't involve widespread electoral fraud and intimidation. What has happened in Tower Hamlets has been the revival of practices that occurred in the 19th century, and which successive governments worked hard to stamp out.
Ed4PM @ 2.3-2.37 is brilliant value.
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/563328475302748161/photo/1
It also explains the amazing strength of the SNP – they have policies (basically screw the English) and they also allow a strong message to be sent (screw the English).
The problem is too big. Same as rape of young girls. The criminality is so large we would need internment camps to properly punish all the guilty parties.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/danny-alexander-balancing-the-books-investing-in-key-public-services
A couple of observations, which I think should influence one's view on how the LibDems might jump in any post-election haggling:
- Danny has won the battle over Vince.
- There's nothing there which would overly scare any Tory coalition horses; we really are talking about very minor differences of overall fiscal balance.
- The LibDems are much more realistic than Labour.
Previously, the boy got sent home for bringing The Big Book of Knowledge to school. It contained a picture of a topless woman.
"It is possible that overall support for Ed Miliband’s party has not declined at all in England and Wales in the past year."
Look at the gap in welfare savings between the Lib Dems and Tories - £4bn and £12bn. Surely again this will be closer to Labour than Tories.
Of course there is nothing to stop the Lib Dems promising a programme closer to Labour's and jumping into bed with the Tories. It's not like they dont have form on this.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/general-election-2015/62415/bbc-s-daily-politics-shows-newsnight-how-it-s-done
If there are any kippers on here who missed out on long-odds constituency bets, buying at 8 seats is a decent, low risk punt on UKIP breaking through the FPTP threshold.
On 25%, surely UKIP would win 100+ seats?
Remember, Danny has seen the books. The telegraph had an interesting article about Osborne having a coupon windfall from ultra low yield gilt issuance. And January is the key month for tax receipts.
April's budget could still be a game changer...??