Central probably stays SNP whatever the weather but if Labour put in enough work isn't outside reach.
Bear in mind that the polls may well understate the SNP's position, because it was compiled by reference to respondents' recall of their vote in 2010 (some respondents will be confused by the 2011 election, where far more voters opted for the SNP).
But that looks like an accurate enough summary of the way in which the seats might swing back to Labour.
Thanks,
I'll let my big fat Cumbernauld bet ride then, and won't hedge out of the 3-1 £50 I have on Coatbridge.
Coatbridge coming in would be the icing on the cake.
Checking my spreadsheet I have a whole £7 on Coatbridge at 3-1.
Hedging would get me £4 net. I'm following your fine example and letting it ride.
I have 7 £10 pounds best, 1 each, on the Glasgow constituencies, max Net Return is £227 if they all come in - can hedge out for £78 net. 111% return on my money risk free sounds pretty good. . .
On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
You mean Cable and Farron will simply deliver the LibDem rump to Labour on a plate?
On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MP Danny Alexander will be an ex MP David Laws might be a surprise ex MP Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too Sal Brinton is not an MP
On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
You mean Cable and Farron will simply deliver the LibDem rump to Labour on a plate?
Central probably stays SNP whatever the weather but if Labour put in enough work isn't outside reach.
Bear in mind that the polls may well understate the SNP's position, because it was compiled by reference to respondents' recall of their vote in 2010 (some respondents will be confused by the 2011 election, where far more voters opted for the SNP).
But that looks like an accurate enough summary of the way in which the seats might swing back to Labour.
Thanks,
I'll let my big fat Cumbernauld bet ride then, and won't hedge out of the 3-1 £50 I have on Coatbridge.
Coatbridge coming in would be the icing on the cake.
Checking my spreadsheet I have a whole £7 on Coatbridge at 3-1.
Hedging would get me £4 net. I'm following your fine example and letting it ride.
I have 7 £10 pounds best, 1 each, on the Glasgow constituencies, max Net Return is £227 if they all come in - can hedge out for £78 net. 111% return on my money risk free sounds pretty good. . .
On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MP Danny Alexander will be an ex MP David Laws might be a surprise ex MP Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too Sal Brinton is not an MP
Why on earth do you think that Steve Webb could be an ex-MP? Lord Ashcroft found a large swing TO him from the Conservatives:
A few football bets for the remainder of the season that look reasonable, A few boys on here will be pleased to see number nine, and even as a Chelsea fan I think that is great value.
I've got Koeman at 8/1 for LMA of the Year, but they are right looking at the past winners it's an old pals act, might hedge Fat Sam
Thanks for that Nigel. I can't say I'm greatly enthused by many of these, the standout value for me would be Derby to win the Championship. This looks like a three horse race of roughly equal contenders, suggesting fair value of 2/1 for each, so 3/1 for the current joint leader looks like a good bet. Disclaimer: I'm a lifelong fan of the Rams!
About a year ago it was put to Lynne Featherstone on Newsnight that at-risk girls should be checked by doctors to establish whether they had been subjected to FGM, as they do in France. Her response was to say something like "we couldn't possibly do that". The problem is if that's the only way to tackle the problem it has to be done no matter how objectionable some people may find it. If you simply ask people, of course they're going to deny it if they know they're going to be in serious trouble.
Yes - that sort of feeble response is why we have the problem. We should just do it. And face down those who object. In my book people who do - or allow this to be done - to their daughters are child abusers. I have no interest in their objections. I would rather they learnt why it must not be done and ceased of their own accord but if that does not work then we must take sterner measures.
I don't know how someone like that - who is concerned with the relative triviality of girls oppressed by size zero models in magazines - can ignore the immeasurable suffering that these girls endure, not just at the time, but for the rest of their lives. How can someone who claims to be concerned about women, who has the chance to do something about it in politics, sleep at night?
Why? Awareness? Tweets? What the hell are those going to do? Make those who sign and join the campaign feel good, no doubt. This is the sort of politics which thinks that saying something is the same as doing something.
Action is what's needed: nurse inspection in schools is a bloody good place to start. We used to have them when I was a child.
The inevitability of the UK's bankruptcy over pensions is probably the most important factor in my determination to get Scotland out the UK as soon as possible.
Well, it's a view I suppose. Up there with Belfast East being gerrymandered to deliver a seat to the Alliance Party though.
On topic, it has to be recognised that there have now been a succession of polls in Sheffield Hallam which don't exactly show Nick Clegg to be in a very good place. There comes a point where you have to acknowledge he's in a real dogfight just to get back to Parliament.
If he doesn't and as seems almost certain now Danny Alexander doesn't, the dynamics of any post-election negotiations over the flavour of the next government are going to be radically different.
Fair point. I think Clegg has already announced his negotiation team for 2015: Danny Alexander, Steve Webb, Sal Brinton, Lynne Featherstone and David Laws.
As long as Clegg is leader I'm not sure if matters too much whether they're in the House or not.
Lynne Featherstone will be an ex MP Danny Alexander will be an ex MP David Laws might be a surprise ex MP Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too Sal Brinton is not an MP
You're right to change your mind about Featherstone's chances of hanging on but I think Steve Webb is safe as houses. Or if he's in trouble we really are in black cab territory.
Glitter guilty on all charges: facing Life in jail...
Rock & Roll!
Looks like he really was the leader after all
I imagine he'll face quite an uncomfortable time in jail.
And there was I imagining that he was going to stride in and yell Hello It's Good To Be Back.
LOL!
I did hope he'd get machine-gunned in Vietnam a few years ago.
I'd say he should be castrated but I don't think I can bear to see the Tories on here defend him
Not much point while he's in jail. If he were ever deemed safe enough to release otherwise, I wouldn't have a huge problem with it being made a condition of his release that he was chemically castrated. But you should be aware that castration does not stop abusers from abusing.
The government is accused of doing nothing but the courts are going to grind to a halt at this rate.
Those charged in Newcastle with rape, sexual exploitation, drug or other offences, but not yet tried of course are:
Eisa Mousavi Monjur Choudhury Redwan Siddquee Mohammed Hassan Ali, Abdulhamid Minoyee Ebrahim Ali Habibur Rahim Ibrahim Rousel Mohammed Khalique Mohammed Azram Nadeem Aslam Prabhat Nelli Taherul Alam Yassar Hussain Jahangir Zaman Badrul Hussain Abdul Sabe Karzan Mohammed Saiful Islam Nashir Uddin
Pensions will be abolished in a few years ... that is the whole point of auto-enrolment. Give it about 10 years and whoever is in government will say "everybody has their own pension so there is no need fo the state one to contnue beyond x date"
Pensions will be abolished in a few years ... that is the whole point of auto-enrolment. Give it about 10 years and whoever is in government will say "everybody has their own pension so there is no need fo the state one to contnue beyond x date"
Yes but as Money Purchase pensions are virtually worthless, it's hardly going to work. Nationalising a business pension obligations has failed.
Comments
Hedging would get me £4 net. I'm following your fine example and letting it ride.
I have 7 £10 pounds best, 1 each, on the Glasgow constituencies, max Net Return is £227 if they all come in - can hedge out for £78 net. 111% return on my money risk free sounds pretty good. . .
But I'm going to let them ride!
Maybe.
Danny Alexander will be an ex MP
David Laws might be a surprise ex MP
Steve Webb could well be an ex MP too
Sal Brinton is not an MP
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thornbury-yate/
Disclaimer: I'm a lifelong fan of the Rams!
I did hope he'd get machine-gunned in Vietnam a few years ago.
Action is what's needed: nurse inspection in schools is a bloody good place to start. We used to have them when I was a child.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little."
Those charged in Newcastle with rape, sexual exploitation, drug or other offences, but not yet tried of course are:
Eisa Mousavi
Monjur Choudhury
Redwan Siddquee
Mohammed Hassan Ali,
Abdulhamid Minoyee
Ebrahim Ali Habibur Rahim
Ibrahim Rousel
Mohammed Khalique
Mohammed Azram
Nadeem Aslam
Prabhat Nelli
Taherul Alam
Yassar Hussain
Jahangir Zaman
Badrul Hussain
Abdul Sabe
Karzan Mohammed
Saiful Islam
Nashir Uddin
'The government is accused of doing nothing but the courts are going to grind to a halt at this rate.'
Is there any city or major town left in the UK that hasn't been contaminated by these scumbags?