politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Halla
The single Survation question: “Let’s say the General Election was tomorrow. Which party would you vote for in your Sheffield Hallam constituency?”
Comments
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First. That's my achievement for the day. I can pretty much put my feet up now.
I do wonder if Clegg's toxicity with the left-leaning Hallamites (Hallamonians?) will be an incumbency drag, rather than bonus.0 -
No past vote recall weighting either ?0
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Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
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One does have to accept that the polling suggests that, at the very least, the seat might be within Labour's reach.0
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there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
Ms May0 -
Pickles. The right chap to knock some heads togetherScott_P said:
there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
Ms May
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FPT:
I suspect this is linked to all sorts of changes in behaviour by adults.TheWatcher said:
8) The child is making it all up.Neil said:
7) I'm up to my neck in it as well.antifrank said:
1) There's a natural tendency to believe that X couldn't possibly be the type.Casino_Royale said:I can't fathom why so many adults in positions of authority and power always turn the other cheek when it comes to hearing reports of child abuse, of whatever stripe.
I can only imagine that it's because it's so intensely disturbing and unpleasant to engage with, particularly when there is often an eloquent and articulate adult on one side, and an emotional and confused child on another, to just dismiss it and try to forget you ever heard about it.
2) It's unpleasant.
3) X is often terrifically useful/dangerous to piss off.
4) The emotional and confused kid is never normally seen by the person to whom the allegations come, so that person doesn't feel invested in helping that kid.
5) If it all gets out, it will be tremendously messy.
6) It could all very well be completely untrue, in which case there would have been a huge amount of angst for no good reason.
Children can, and do, invent the most outlandish stories, and sometimes allegations will be dismissed as such for that reason.
(Actually ignore that - point 6 covered it)
Take one of the most read stories on the bbc website - kids no longer showering after PE. I was kinda surprised such an inane story was so high up the "most read" story list, but it did get me thinking. IIRC, the article covered the *kids having insecurities* explanation for not bothering to shower, but it said nothing about why teachers don't expect/make sure the kids shower any more. Then it occurred to me - If you're a PE teacher, you're probably not going to want to go anywhere near teenage kids showering, or even broach the showering issue at all. The potential for *nudge nudge wink wink* rumours is huge. A single false allegation would be devastating.
Consequence = smelly teenagers.0 -
*does accent*TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
"Kenneth CLARKE becomes temporary LEADER, what a.. err.. Fan-TAST-ic turn of ahfairs!"0 -
On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.0
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You need to add *lights monster cigar* at the end.Casino_Royale said:
*does accent*TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
"Kenneth CLARKE becomes temporary LEADER, what a.. err.. Fan-TAST-ic turn of ahfairs!"
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No. It won't be anyone who is a leadership contender.Scott_P said:
there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
Ms May
The others won't allow it.0 -
Yeah, surely this is potentially a much more significant difference than candidate namingTheScreamingEagles said:No past vote recall weighting either ?
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I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg0 -
OK, since we're all in a jokey mood, how about this.TheScreamingEagles said:Fpt for Casino Royale
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
The Tories and Labour are tied on around 275 seats each, there's 30 LibDems, 20 SNP and 3 UKIP. The only real option for a viable Government is a Grand Coalition Lab/Con or is it Con/Lab. They fight for 2 weeks, the markets get jittery. Cameron won't give way to Miliband. Miliband won't give way to Cameron. Eventually they ask Nick Clegg to be PM in a Government of All the Talents. Tory MPs walk around with legs crossed.
Well I did say it was jokey!0 -
More like a facehugger from Alien.Casino_Royale said:On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.
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Are candidates sorted by first name, party or second name ?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg0 -
Guess who are going to make (manufacture) the new battle helmets for the British army................
................the Israelis: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933921/British-soldiers-equipped-state-art-battle-helmets-Stormtrooper-look.html0 -
A really really interesting Speccie article about what people vote for and the sort of people who vote for differernt reasons:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/whats-more-important-to-voters-coherent-policy-or-the-chance-to-send-a-message/0 -
"15-20% of the population resident in an average constituency today might not have been resident there at the time of the last election, making past vote weighting targets much less accurate on a constituency basis than they are nationally."
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/0 -
FPT:
Another interesting seat is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I know virtually nothing about it other than a Unionist unity candidate backed by both the DUP and Conservatives came within 4 votes of being elected in GE2010. If he had won, he had pledged to take the Conservative whip on national (UK non-NI) issues.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.0 -
Party name innit ?Pulpstar said:
Are candidates sorted by first name, party or second name ?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg0 -
On those numbers, Mr Clegg coming third or fourth is possible. That would be funny.0
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That's a safe seat, where you strangle the opposition. Cameron in Witney, for example.Anorak said:
More like a facehugger from Alien.Casino_Royale said:On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.
I suspect it's also what TSE wants to do to Mark Reckless in R&S.0 -
That's a bit of a massive assumption.Casino_Royale said:FPT:
Another interesting seat is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I know virtually nothing about it other than a Unionist unity candidate backed by both the DUP and Conservatives came within 4 votes of being elected in GE2010. If he had won, he had pledged to take the Conservative whip on national (UK non-NI) issues.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all, and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.
The dozen Lib Dem gains is far far far more likely than only 10 losses to Labour or so.0 -
Is your point that they're excellent at manufacturing military hardware, which they are, or something else?MikeK said:Guess who are going to make (manufacture) the new battle helmets for the British army................
................the Israelis: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933921/British-soldiers-equipped-state-art-battle-helmets-Stormtrooper-look.html
Regardless, they're actually being made in Canada, but the contracted supplier happens to be an Israeli company.0 -
I don't think anyone does past vote weighting for constituency polls. You then have to add 'did you live in this constituency in May 2010'.TheScreamingEagles said:No past vote recall weighting either ?
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By law, candidates must appear on the ballot paper in the order they are listed in the statement of persons nominated (i.e. alphabetical order). The surname, or commonly used surname if supplied, of each candidate should be printed in bold capital letters and followed by the forename(s) (or commonly used forename(s)) printed in ordinary type. The exception is if two or more candidates share the same surname. In this case, the candidates’ forenames should be printed in small capital letters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Party name innit ?Pulpstar said:
Are candidates sorted by first name, party or second name ?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ballot+paper+name+order0 -
Read my posts more carefully: I'm not making any assumptions. I'm outlining the only conceivable way I can see to the Conservatives reaching a stable solo-government result.Pulpstar said:
That's a bit of a massive assumption.Casino_Royale said:FPT:
Another interesting seat is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I know virtually nothing about it other than a Unionist unity candidate backed by both the DUP and Conservatives came within 4 votes of being elected in GE2010. If he had won, he had pledged to take the Conservative whip on national (UK non-NI) issues.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all, and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.
My prediction remains for the Tories in the low 290s.0 -
Apologies if this was linked to yesterday but an interesting piece on the story behind the "bill somebody" story and its implications by Jeremy Warner: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11389303/Balls-latest-gaffe-speaks-to-a-wider-truth-Labour-has-no-support-in-business.html
I think it is true that Labour has less business support than it has had since the early 70s and that most or all of the lessons taught by Blair and Mandleson on how to win an election have been forgotten. The important question, however, is does this matter?
Mr Warner says: "No doubt there is a constituency for this kind of stuff, but it is probably not big enough to secure a majority."
I fear he may be wrong about that or at least there are enough people who think that way to make Labour the largest party. There are a significant number of people in this country who do not see the connection between the fat cats of the City and the provision of public services; who believe that the State can somehow provide its own resources; who don't accept the consequences of the mobility of capital; who don't accept that there should be a correlation between what is paid for a job and its economic worth; who are more interested in the distribution of the cake than its baking.
The more intelligent of those who fundamentally believe this point to the innumerable flaws of the current system: the inequality; the inconsistency between needing to incentivise the rich and penalise the poor; how unfairly the benefits of globalisation have been allocated and the moral hypocrisy of those who think clever tax avoidance is somehow ok.
It is hard to disagree with many of these critiques but are we really going to elect a PM who thinks that way? That is what we are being asked to do. Yesterday's PMQs was a case in point. Is Labour really going to risk London's standing as the financial centre of Europe generating billions of tax revenues by trying to slap on extra taxes like stamp duty on the transfer of shares? 5 questions on the same point and a promise to keep asking it. He thinks he is on a winner and with those that think the way I have described he just might be.0 -
Anorak said:
More like a facehugger from Alien.Casino_Royale said:On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.
Wrap himself around his head and insert something down his throat?Casino_Royale said:That's a safe seat, where you strangle the opposition. Cameron in Witney, for example.
I suspect it's also what TSE wants to do to Mark Reckless in R&S.0 -
No. My point, for the obtuse is, why on earth can't they manufacture the helmets in Britain?TheWatcher said:
Is your point that they're excellent at manufacturing military hardware, which they are, or something else?MikeK said:Guess who are going to make (manufacture) the new battle helmets for the British army................
................the Israelis: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933921/British-soldiers-equipped-state-art-battle-helmets-Stormtrooper-look.html
Regardless, they're actually being made in Canada, but the contracted supplier happens to be an Israeli company.
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It would be an interesting bet, how many people *mistakenly* vote for Steve Clegg.logical_song said:
By law, candidates must appear on the ballot paper in the order they are listed in the statement of persons nominated (i.e. alphabetical order). The surname, or commonly used surname if supplied, of each candidate should be printed in bold capital letters and followed by the forename(s) (or commonly used forename(s)) printed in ordinary type. The exception is if two or more candidates share the same surname. In this case, the candidates’ forenames should be printed in small capital letters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Party name innit ?Pulpstar said:
Are candidates sorted by first name, party or second name ?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ballot+paper+name+order
IIRC, when Michael martin sought reelection as speaker (the labour party wasn't on the ballot paper) - his vote went down & the socialist labour party a pile of votes, despite not campaigning at all.
The ballot paper can confuse voters, obviously.0 -
If even a handful of half-asleep voters put their cross next to the wrong Clegg it could make all the difference. Pity he isn't standing as a Literal Democrat.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg0 -
Do they still list candidates as surname, first name? In alphabetical order?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
Even if there is a little party logo, I can see the potential for some hundreds of voters to make a silly error between the two Cleggs - in a tight race this might actually have an impact.0 -
Then there's the 'Literal Democrat' in the West Country euro election who got 10,000 v0tes and the Liberal Democrat lost.Pong said:
It would be an interesting bet, how many people *mistakenly* vote for Steve Clegg.logical_song said:
By law, candidates must appear on the ballot paper in the order they are listed in the statement of persons nominated (i.e. alphabetical order). The surname, or commonly used surname if supplied, of each candidate should be printed in bold capital letters and followed by the forename(s) (or commonly used forename(s)) printed in ordinary type. The exception is if two or more candidates share the same surname. In this case, the candidates’ forenames should be printed in small capital letters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Party name innit ?Pulpstar said:
Are candidates sorted by first name, party or second name ?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ballot+paper+name+order
IIRC, when Michael martin sought reelection as speaker (the labour party wasn't on the ballot paper) - his vote went down & the socialist labour party a pile of votes, despite not campaigning at all.
The ballot paper can confuse voters, obviously.0 -
Because better ones are obtainable elsewhere.MikeK said:
No. My point, for the obtuse is, why on earth can't they manufacture the helmets in Britain?TheWatcher said:
Is your point that they're excellent at manufacturing military hardware, which they are, or something else?MikeK said:Guess who are going to make (manufacture) the new battle helmets for the British army................
................the Israelis: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933921/British-soldiers-equipped-state-art-battle-helmets-Stormtrooper-look.html
Regardless, they're actually being made in Canada, but the contracted supplier happens to be an Israeli company.
The MoD has hosed billions over the years, buying overpriced and poorly engineered UK built kit in procurement projects that over ran by years, with nothing delivered, when they could have bought off the shelf for less, from overseas.
It's good to see that someone's got the message, that British isn't necessarily best.0 -
Who's up for changing their name to David Cameroon and standing as a Conversative?SandyRentool said:
If even a handful of half-asleep voters put their cross next to the wrong Clegg it could make all the difference. Pity he isn't standing as a Literal Democrat.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg0 -
Excellent response from the Durham Chief Constable to requests to fence off, and then patrol the riverbank to stop drunk students falling in:
"One thing connected these three young men who died in the river and that was they were so paralytically drunk they were not in control of their bodies. They have then walked or stumbled into the river.
"Some people are saying this means we have to fence off the river. No we don't.
"What we need to look at is the personal responsibility of young men and women who are coming away to university, starting their lives and who need to behave a bit more socially responsibly.
"I was incensed when I heard some representatives of the student body saying the answer is for more police officers. It is ludicrous that society is asking me to put police officers on the riverbank to stop bright young things falling in. What sort of world have we come to?"
Too right. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-311451080 -
Got to say I'm not a fan of the 'literal democrat' gambit.
A chap can't help his name, though someone changing to Nigel Garage and standing in the same constituency would also be dodgy.0 -
Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html0 -
Oi. I do have some standards you know.Anorak said:Anorak said:
More like a facehugger from Alien.Casino_Royale said:On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.
Wrap himself around his head and insert something down his throat?Casino_Royale said:That's a safe seat, where you strangle the opposition. Cameron in Witney, for example.
I suspect it's also what TSE wants to do to Mark Reckless in R&S.
Granted they are lower than everybody else's, but I do have some.0 -
There are still those working in the media who keep mixing up the Miliband brothers!Charles said:
Do they still list candidates as surname, first name? In alphabetical order?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
Even if there is a little party logo, I can see the potential for some hundreds of voters to make a silly error between the two Cleggs - in a tight race this might actually have an impact.0 -
O/T:
In today's Times, page 5:
"Lance Armstrong could face up to 90 days in jail after he hit two parked cars while driving home from a party and then allegedly letting his girlfriend take the blame".0 -
Ah, taking lessons from Huhne!AndyJS said:O/T:
In today's Times, page 5:
"Lance Armstrong could face up to 90 days in jail after he hit two parked cars while driving home from a party and then allegedly letting his girlfriend take the blame".0 -
@Sunil_Prasannan
"There are still those working in the media who keep mixing up the Miliband brothers!"
That's one of those self fulfilling prophecies, the one thing in your mind that you shouldn't say.....is the first thing that automatically pops into your mind.
(Oh, and don't mention the war?)0 -
Labour lead 1.2% in the "part-ELBOW" for the six polls so far this week.0
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I can't imagine seeing that article anywhere in the mainstream media three years ago. I can also imagine the outrage and universal condemnation which would have followed, if it had been published then.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...0 -
Lol! The chestburster emerging from Reckless as he stands on the podium to hear his seat declaration could be quite spectacular.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oi. I do have some standards you know.Anorak said:Anorak said:
More like a facehugger from Alien.Casino_Royale said:On topic, Clegg will hold on like Tom Cruise to that rock face in the opening sequence of Mi2.
Wrap himself around his head and insert something down his throat?Casino_Royale said:That's a safe seat, where you strangle the opposition. Cameron in Witney, for example.
I suspect it's also what TSE wants to do to Mark Reckless in R&S.
Granted they are lower than everybody else's, but I do have some.
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Or the foreign helmets are better when it comes to preventing injuries. The Canadians may well have an exclusive manufacturing process that gives these helmets the edge when it comes to protection, in the same way that UK companies hold onto the patents used to manufacture Chobham Armour.Smarmeron said:@MikeK
"... why on earth can't they manufacture the helmets in Britain?"
Market forces?
I'd prefer to see protective gear bought for our troops because it's the best at saving their lives, rather than because it has a 'Made in Britain' sticker on the inside, wouldn't you?0 -
Incidentally, those into xenomorphs may enjoy playing Alien: Isolation, which is generally highly rated. [Not played it myself].0
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@TheWatcher
There is an onus on our armed forces to put everything out to tender these days, and has been so since before WW1.
(It's why we nearly ran out of artillery shells in the early days of the conflict)0 -
It's about time we overhauled the antiquated system. Aside from the electoral system.Charles said:
Do they still list candidates as surname, first name? In alphabetical order?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict with 100% assurance that Clegg will lose Sheffield Hallam in May.
Steve Clegg that is. The English Democrats candidate for Sheffield Hallam
https://yournextmp.com/person/5807/steve-clegg
Even if there is a little party logo, I can see the potential for some hundreds of voters to make a silly error between the two Cleggs - in a tight race this might actually have an impact.
i) Raise the deposit to at least £1k or £2k. If it had kept pace with inflation since 1918 it should be at least £6k. Perhaps combine this with a reduction in the threshold to about 3%.
ii) Maybe adopt the continental system where each party has a separate ballot paper, and you first choose the paper, then mark it, then put it in an envelope.
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George Galloway apologises to UKIP http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-galloway-apologises-ukip---5110214 …0
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While it may be the case that 5% of people move in/out of an average constituency every year, does that really mean 15-20% of the people in a constituency have *changed* between 2010-2015?Artist said:"15-20% of the population resident in an average constituency today might not have been resident there at the time of the last election, making past vote weighting targets much less accurate on a constituency basis than they are nationally."
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/
I suspect a substantial chunk of those 5% who moved into a constituency in late 2010 have since moved out again.0 -
No comments allowed, though.Anorak said:
I can't imagine seeing that article anywhere in the mainstream media three years ago. I can also imagine the outrage and universal condemnation which would have followed, if it had been published then.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...0 -
And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
That raises a question which could be useful if you ever find yourself having to create a psephological quiz: Can an individual stand for two different parties on the same ballot paper? And if so, would he squeeze himself or would his votes be aggregated?Tissue_Price said:
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
Bit late now for Preston North...Tissue_Price said:
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
Some Labour Party candidates are also adopted as Co-operative Party candidates.Richard_Nabavi said:
That raises a question which could be useful if you ever find yourself having to create a psephological quiz: Can an individual stand for two different parties on the same ballot paper? And if so, would he squeeze himself or would his votes be aggregated?Tissue_Price said:
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
Oh fo heaven's sake, Sunil, when are we going to get crossover?Sunil_Prasannan said:Labour lead 1.2% in the "part-ELBOW" for the six polls so far this week.
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Last week in May.Peter_the_Punter said:
Oh fo heaven's sake, Sunil, when are we going to get crossover?Sunil_Prasannan said:Labour lead 1.2% in the "part-ELBOW" for the six polls so far this week.
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Have you heard of Labour & Co-op?Richard_Nabavi said:
That raises a question which could be useful if you ever find yourself having to create a psephological quiz: Can an individual stand for two different parties on the same ballot paper? And if so, would he squeeze himself or would his votes be aggregated?Tissue_Price said:
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
I'm pretty sure Clegg will hold Hallam because large numbers of liberal Tories like TSE will vote tactically.0
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Yes, very interesting. Only Conservative voters are primarily interested in policy.Patrick said:A really really interesting Speccie article about what people vote for and the sort of people who vote for differernt reasons:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/whats-more-important-to-voters-coherent-policy-or-the-chance-to-send-a-message/
That explains a lot.0 -
Ronald Atkins has been the oldest living former MP since 20th December:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Atkins0 -
I think EdM does think that there should be far more emphasis on how the cake is distributed rather than on making the cake bigger. From everything he has said, I do not glean any interest at all in growth, how to get it, foster it etc but a lot of interest in how to share the proceeds of whatever money is made - hence mansion taxes, attacking energy companies, tax avoiders etc. He is all about equality / fairness and taking money off those he thinks have too much of it or have somehow got it illegitimately. In that sense he clearly is socialist and has moved to the Left, in the way that the Seamus Milnes of this world want.DavidL said:: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11389303/Balls-latest-gaffe-speaks-to-a-wider-truth-Labour-has-no-support-in-business.html
I think it is true that Labour has less business support than it has had since the early 70s and that most or all of the lessons taught by Blair and Mandleson on how to win an election have been forgotten. The important question, however, is does this matter?
Mr Warner says: "No doubt there is a constituency for this kind of stuff, but it is probably not big enough to secure a majority."
I fear he may be wrong about that or at least there are enough people who think that way to make Labour the largest party. There are a significant number of people in this country who do not see the connection between the fat cats of the City and the provision of public services; who believe that the State can somehow provide its own resources; who don't accept the consequences of the mobility of capital; who don't accept that there should be a correlation between what is paid for a job and its economic worth; who are more interested in the distribution of the cake than its baking.
The more intelligent of those who fundamentally believe this point to the innumerable flaws of the current system: the inequality; the inconsistency between needing to incentivise the rich and penalise the poor; how unfairly the benefits of globalisation have been allocated and the moral hypocrisy of those who think clever tax avoidance is somehow ok.
It is hard to disagree with many of these critiques but are we really going to elect a PM who thinks that way? That is what we are being asked to do. Yesterday's PMQs was a case in point. Is Labour really going to risk London's standing as the financial centre of Europe generating billions of tax revenues by trying to slap on extra taxes like stamp duty on the transfer of shares? 5 questions on the same point and a promise to keep asking it. He thinks he is on a winner and with those that think the way I have described he just might be.
There may well be enough voters who agree with him or, at least, think that there are enough "bad" people to bear the pain that it won't affect them. I fear they will face a rude awakening.
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Of course, but the context and wording of my question made clear that I meant as two separate nominations, i.e two separate lines on the ballot paper, geddit?RodCrosby said:
Have you heard of Labour & Co-op?Richard_Nabavi said:
That raises a question which could be useful if you ever find yourself having to create a psephological quiz: Can an individual stand for two different parties on the same ballot paper? And if so, would he squeeze himself or would his votes be aggregated?Tissue_Price said:
Wiki has a useful note: "Ron Atkins (Labour) and Robert Atkins (Con) are two different people."RodCrosby said:And who can forget Preston North, 1979?
R.J. Atkins (Con) beating R.H. Atkins (Lab) by 29 votes...
I think there was a seat in Wales in the 1950s where all three candidates were Davies.0 -
If you look at the ward breakdowns in the Survation poll , it shows Labour in first place just ahead of the Conservatives in Dore and Totley .. Anyone who knows the area and can look at local election results from recent years can see that that is drivel .0
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The issue I have with articles such as this is that they are deliberately (and unnecessarily) misleading.Anorak said:
I can't imagine seeing that article anywhere in the mainstream media three years ago. I can also imagine the outrage and universal condemnation which would have followed, if it had been published then.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...
For example on FGM she correctly reports the number of cases reported (which is horrific) but fails to mention that overwhelmingly these crimes were committed overseas, often many years ago. Massive effort are being made in communities up and down the UK to stop young girls being taken abroad for cutting - these efforts are led by women within those communities.
Similarly on Rotherham, the Casey report (which I've read) finds other issues apart from the ethnicity of the perpetrators to be important as well, not least the bullying attitude of senior Cllrs and the widespread misogyny. The girls involved were regarded are partly to blame, regrettably this victim blaming continues and is not restricted to any community.
Finally on the slaughterhouse issue she appears to complain that the actions of the slaughtermen is tolerated, but then mentions that criminal prosecutions are likely. She can't have it both ways.
By all means write a polemic, and there is plenty to be angry about, but at least allow your argument to have some rational base.
(No comment on Tower Hamlets, politics in East London has been like that for generations regardless of the ethnicity of those involved....)
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I like Sajid Javid
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
@sajidjavid opens address to #pressgallery: 'I have today agreed to let my name go forward for the leadership of... Oops, wrong speech"0 -
Absolutely right.MarkSenior said:If you look at the ward breakdowns in the Survation poll , it shows Labour in first place just ahead of the Conservatives in Dore and Totley .. Anyone who knows the area and can look at local election results from recent years can see that that is drivel .
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I see its written by the same guy who wrote sex lies & the ballot box.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, very interesting. Only Conservative voters are primarily interested in policy.Patrick said:A really really interesting Speccie article about what people vote for and the sort of people who vote for differernt reasons:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/whats-more-important-to-voters-coherent-policy-or-the-chance-to-send-a-message/
That explains a lot.
Has anyone read it? Is it worth picking up a copy?0 -
What a load of self serving bollocks.michaelcollins10 said:
The issue I have with articles such as this is that they are deliberately (and unnecessarily) misleading.Anorak said:
I can't imagine seeing that article anywhere in the mainstream media three years ago. I can also imagine the outrage and universal condemnation which would have followed, if it had been published then.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...
For example on FGM she correctly reports the number of cases reported (which is horrific) but fails to mention that overwhelmingly these crimes were committed overseas, often many years ago. Massive effort are being made in communities up and down the UK to stop young girls being taken abroad for cutting - these efforts are led by women within those communities.
Similarly on Rotherham, the Casey report (which I've read) finds other issues apart from the ethnicity of the perpetrators to be important as well, not least the bullying attitude of senior Cllrs and the widespread misogyny. The girls involved were regarded are partly to blame, regrettably this victim blaming continues and is not restricted to any community.
Finally on the slaughterhouse issue she appears to complain that the actions of the slaughtermen is tolerated, but then mentions that criminal prosecutions are likely. She can't have it both ways.
By all means write a polemic, and there is plenty to be angry about, but at least allow your argument to have some rational base.
(No comment on Tower Hamlets, politics in East London has been like that for generations regardless of the ethnicity of those involved....)0 -
It's no more than what a lot of us have been saying on fora such as this for some time now.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
It will become thought-provoking when a Cameron or a Milliband or a Clegg says the same things and implements some action to deal with it. When Hammond, for instance, a year or so back said much the same thing as the Tower Hamlets shopkeeper quoted in the article, he was howled down and forced to issue the usual ludicrous non-apology apology.0 -
Hundreds of thousands of British women have been subjected to FGM.
So what do the CPS do? They prosecute a doctor who had simply sown up a woman after a normal operation. True idiocy. But easier than tackling the real problem.0 -
I would back him for the leadership, to be honest (if you know, I got a vote). But I can't see circumstances where he'd win it.Tissue_Price said:I like Sajid Javid
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
@sajidjavid opens address to #pressgallery: 'I have today agreed to let my name go forward for the leadership of... Oops, wrong speech"
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2017/18, perhaps. The understanding is that he's Osborne's candidate, if Osborne isn't the candidate. But I don't know if DC would step down mid-term or not.Grandiose said:
I would back him for the leadership, to be honest (if you know, I got a vote). But I can't see circumstances where he'd win it.Tissue_Price said:I like Sajid Javid
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
@sajidjavid opens address to #pressgallery: 'I have today agreed to let my name go forward for the leadership of... Oops, wrong speech"0 -
Ladbrokes have a Glasgow Seats exact score market.
Interesting, very interesting.0 -
Interview with CPS on Radio 4 this AM. They'd spent a very long time preparing the case too. Muppets.AndyJS said:Hundreds of thousands of British women have been subjected to FGM.
So what do the CPS do? They prosecute a doctor who had simply sown up a woman after a normal operation. True idiocy. But easier than tackling the real problem.0 -
The Tories do well enough in May to continue in Government. He gets promoted to a higher profile position in the new Cabinet. Cameron steps down after the 2017 referendum. Osborne decides not to contest the leadership.Grandiose said:
I would back him for the leadership, to be honest (if you know, I got a vote). But I can't see circumstances where he'd win it.Tissue_Price said:I like Sajid Javid
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
@sajidjavid opens address to #pressgallery: 'I have today agreed to let my name go forward for the leadership of... Oops, wrong speech"
0 -
Politics really hasn't been like that in East London post-1918.michaelcollins10 said:Anorak said:
I can't imagine seeing that article anywhere in the mainstream media three years ago. I can also imagine the outrage and universal condemnation which would have followed, if it had been published then.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by Allison Pearson:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11390257/Voter-fraud.-Animal-abuse.-FGM.-Here.-In-our-country..html
Lets see what happens on the twitterverse and in the wider media this time...
(No comment on Tower Hamlets, politics in East London has been like that for generations regardless of the ethnicity of those involved....)
Politics could be quite rough, but didn't involve widespread electoral fraud and intimidation. What has happened in Tower Hamlets has been the revival of practices that occurred in the 19th century, and which successive governments worked hard to stamp out.
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Depsite, apparently, everything being hopeless for labour, Dave is not any more likely to remain as PM.
Ed4PM @ 2.3-2.37 is brilliant value.
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/563328475302748161/photo/10 -
It explains why Labour can't be bothered about policy, and just want to display their hearts on their sleeves (e.g. A. Burnham, inter alia). And further why their approval ratings are immune to this shortcoming.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, very interesting. Only Conservative voters are primarily interested in policy.Patrick said:A really really interesting Speccie article about what people vote for and the sort of people who vote for differernt reasons:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/whats-more-important-to-voters-coherent-policy-or-the-chance-to-send-a-message/
That explains a lot.
It also explains the amazing strength of the SNP – they have policies (basically screw the English) and they also allow a strong message to be sent (screw the English).
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But easier than tackling the real problem.
The problem is too big. Same as rape of young girls. The criminality is so large we would need internment camps to properly punish all the guilty parties.0 -
SNP 6-1 is priced the same as Labour 7-00
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The LibDem announcements today on tax and spending are quite interesting:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/danny-alexander-balancing-the-books-investing-in-key-public-services
A couple of observations, which I think should influence one's view on how the LibDems might jump in any post-election haggling:
- Danny has won the battle over Vince.
- There's nothing there which would overly scare any Tory coalition horses; we really are talking about very minor differences of overall fiscal balance.
- The LibDems are much more realistic than Labour.0 -
O/T, but a boy at a primary school in Kermit (!) Texas has been suspended for bringing a "Ring of Power" to school and offering to make other children invisible. Apparently, the school authorities thought this was satanic.
Previously, the boy got sent home for bringing The Big Book of Knowledge to school. It contained a picture of a topless woman.0 -
From that articlePong said:Depsite, apparently, everything being hopeless for labour, Dave is not any more likely to remain as PM.
Ed4PM @ 2.3-2.37 is brilliant value.
http://t.co/LTGlpZHrDw
"It is possible that overall support for Ed Miliband’s party has not declined at all in England and Wales in the past year."0 -
Are you kidding? They seem to be going for something close to a 50:50 balance between spending cuts / tax rises in closing the fiscal deficit. That seems to be closer to Vince's thinking than Danny's (it might even be to the left of whatever Labour finally offer). The Tories are essentially offering 100: 0 when you take into account their tax cut pledges.Richard_Nabavi said:The LibDem announcements today on tax and spending are quite interesting:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/danny-alexander-balancing-the-books-investing-in-key-public-services
A couple of observations, which I think should influence one's view on how the LibDems might jump in any post-election haggling:
- Danny has won the battle over Vince.
Look at the gap in welfare savings between the Lib Dems and Tories - £4bn and £12bn. Surely again this will be closer to Labour than Tories.
Of course there is nothing to stop the Lib Dems promising a programme closer to Labour's and jumping into bed with the Tories. It's not like they dont have form on this.0 -
I don't know anything about the seat, but just on the polling, I really doubt if it's demographically weighted by ward, so looking at ward results is like looking at regional subsamples in YouGov - alluring but almost meaningless.MarkSenior said:If you look at the ward breakdowns in the Survation poll , it shows Labour in first place just ahead of the Conservatives in Dore and Totley .. Anyone who knows the area and can look at local election results from recent years can see that that is drivel .
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Great piece! Andrew Neil really gets it.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/general-election-2015/62415/bbc-s-daily-politics-shows-newsnight-how-it-s-done0 -
I think we are in agreement. The question is whether the media will feel the need to press him on the unfortunate details of how the money is to be earned now that the election is approaching. They really didn't in 2010 where incredibly little was made of the refusal to have a spending review, one of the most cynical moves of an incredibly cynical government.Cyclefree said:
I think EdM does think that there should be far more emphasis on how the cake is distributed rather than on making the cake bigger. From everything he has said, I do not glean any interest at all in growth, how to get it, foster it etc but a lot of interest in how to share the proceeds of whatever money is made - hence mansion taxes, attacking energy companies, tax avoiders etc. He is all about equality / fairness and taking money off those he thinks have too much of it or have somehow got it illegitimately. In that sense he clearly is socialist and has moved to the Left, in the way that the Seamus Milnes of this world want.DavidL said:
There may well be enough voters who agree with him or, at least, think that there are enough "bad" people to bear the pain that it won't affect them. I fear they will face a rude awakening.0 -
Isn't it just £8bn of additional tax compared with Osborne, i.e. peanuts? (I'm ignoring the £6bn clampdown on tax avoidance/evasion, because every man and his dog says that).Neil said:
Are you kidding? They seem to be going for something close to a 50:50 balance between spending cuts / tax rises in closing the fiscal deficit. That seems to be closer to Vince's thinking than Danny's (it might even be to the left of whatever Labour finally offer).Richard_Nabavi said:The LibDem announcements today on tax and spending are quite interesting:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/danny-alexander-balancing-the-books-investing-in-key-public-services
A couple of observations, which I think should influence one's view on how the LibDems might jump in any post-election haggling:
- Danny has won the battle over Vince.0 -
UKIP 6-8 seats at spreadex.
If there are any kippers on here who missed out on long-odds constituency bets, buying at 8 seats is a decent, low risk punt on UKIP breaking through the FPTP threshold.
On 25%, surely UKIP would win 100+ seats?0 -
Are you kidding?
Remember, Danny has seen the books. The telegraph had an interesting article about Osborne having a coupon windfall from ultra low yield gilt issuance. And January is the key month for tax receipts.
April's budget could still be a game changer...??0
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