Skip to content

I hope Nigel Farage is putting his money where his mouth is – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,727
    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,556

    viewcode said:

    People are talking about the Traitors TV show. I haven't watched it. What is the nature of the kerfuffle?

    It's an entertaining series based on the difficulty in deciding who is bluffing/double-bluffing whom. Because it's TV, they successfully got lots of people engaged and rooting for one or another of the teams.
    That I understand, but there was an uptick in people being upset by it tonight. I'll google, see what happened.
  • kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax in upcoming budget

    The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month


    Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.

    The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month.

    The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-budget-watchdog-raise-income-tax-plan-sr2wd8mp7

    21%/42% is my guess.
    This is in line with my thinking. In isolation it will raise around £12bn. In addition 47 or 48% for the additional rate which will raise less than £1bn but will be done to send a political message about 'fairness' and 'making those with the broadest shoulders pay more'.
    It's going to be utterly grim for additional rate taxpayers, we're going to get squeezed like a fiscal Singapore grip.
    Lucy Powell is going into but for you guys

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1986481340112408586?s=61
    Powell has decided that by going down this route it will help her leadership ambitions. She can turn around and play the manifesto pledge martyr !
    Indeed. She’s just not a serious politician given this, how else are they supposed to get the level of money they need.
    Magic money tree, same as every other politician who grubs after popularity. Different species, but the same basic principle.

    Something for nothing beats nothing for something in the polls. Always has, always will, unfortunately.
    One day we'll have to wake up from that dream. But it is not this day.
    MMT exists but it requires systemic change.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,727
    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    59m

    Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.


    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,358

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Gives Reform 401 MPs, LDs 68, Greens 62, SNP 41, Labour 25, Conservatives 20.

    Mind you it is FON
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    5h
    Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1986488752978481585
    The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic

    How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
    If Reform were to win the next election (a big “if”) it’ll be as a minority propped up by the rump of the Tories or a 330-340 seat sort of victory, IMHO.

    I don’t have the same confidence that tactical voting will be the complete spoiler that some think on here, but I think it’s clear it’ll have some impact, and it will definitely prevent a complete wipeout for Lab/LD
    There is a possibility that the period before the next election will be like 1994-1997 and Farage will consolidate a Blair-level domination of mainstream politics.
    I think he’s far too marmite to win big in a first election. If he were to actually get to Downing Street in the first place, things start to become interesting, but it must remain more likely than not that he’d struggle to hold together a coherent and stable government given his record.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,858

    I think the broader point about all this is the growing antisemitism that we are seeing in this country over recent years. That Jewish communities thrived in Britain during the twentieth century while they were subject to pogroms and worse elsewhere is something we should justly be proud of. And now, that tradition is now in serious jeopardy and far too many of our citizens are blind to it (wilfully in some cases).

    I'm Jewish by the formal; definition (maternal line), and I'm proud of the extent to which countries helped in the face of the Nazi atrocities, especially Denmark and Sweden, but also Britain for the resasons you say.That doesn't extend to supporting Netanyahu and his disgusting regime. I don't see why Jewish people should be expected to think differently or, conversely, why they should be blamed for it if they didn't vote for him.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    LD gain in Devon, Ref gain in Newark.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,562

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    Another Ref gain in Newark.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,556

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
    So the message from PB tonight is..."winter is coming" :):)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,906
    Nigelb said:

    Eight months ??

    Eight months ago, Rep. Sylvester Turner D-TX died. His seat in the U.S. House is still vacant. On Tuesday, two Dems advanced to a runoff for that seat. When is the runoff?? We don't know.

    That runoff date still must be set by Gov. Greg Abbott.

    https://x.com/jamiedupree/status/1986505834134691937

    Congressional terms are only 24 months. That's absurd.

    Although in Ireland it is accepted as normal that the government will delay Dail by-elections as long as possible if it gives them an advantage. They're expected to delay the by-election to elect the replacement TD for the new President for the full six months allowed by law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,320

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    59m

    Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.


    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808

    Steve, you have already been in prison anyway
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/29/steve-bannon-released-from-prison-early-a-week-before-us-election
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247

    bobbob said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    bobbob said:

    Anyone hear much today from Kier Starmer, Lisa Nandy et al on the Maccabib Tel Aviv match ? Feels like it’s all gone quiet over there

    Turns out the ban on fans wasn't because of rampant anti-Semitism in Birmingham, as anyone with a sliver of knowledge of football could have told you: https://news.sky.com/story/significant-hooliganism-within-maccabi-tel-aviv-fan-base-is-reason-for-aston-villa-match-ban-13465257

    A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.

    I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
    From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
    The police are talking shite.

    Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.

    I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,

    You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic

    Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
    So why aren't fans of other teams banned?

    Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
    Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.

    That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).

    It should have happened here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,346

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Gives Reform 401 MPs, LDs 68, Greens 62, SNP 41, Labour 25, Conservatives 20.

    Mind you it is FON
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    5h
    Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1986488752978481585
    The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic

    How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
    If Reform were to win the next election (a big “if”) it’ll be as a minority propped up by the rump of the Tories or a 330-340 seat sort of victory, IMHO.

    I don’t have the same confidence that tactical voting will be the complete spoiler that some think on here, but I think it’s clear it’ll have some impact, and it will definitely prevent a complete wipeout for Lab/LD
    There is a possibility that the period before the next election will be like 1994-1997 and Farage will consolidate a Blair-level domination of mainstream politics.
    I think he’s far too marmite to win big in a first election. If he were to actually get to Downing Street in the first place, things start to become interesting, but it must remain more likely than not that he’d struggle to hold together a coherent and stable government given his record.
    At the moment he seems very serious about not only winning but governing and that will create its own momentum. He could end up being the best-prepared first term PM since Thatcher.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK

    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 33% (+1)
    🟢 Greens: 18% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
    🔴 Labour: 15% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

    Changes from 29th October
    [Find Out Now, 5-6th November, N=2,717]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1986482146828025866

    Gives Reform 401 MPs, LDs 68, Greens 62, SNP 41, Labour 25, Conservatives 20.

    Mind you it is FON
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    5h
    Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1986488752978481585
    The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic

    How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
    The 3/1 on Reform majority looks to be good value. In a world where the electorate is so fractured, then getting 30+% can result in a massive victory.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,562
    viewcode said:

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
    So the message from PB tonight is..."winter is coming" :):)
    Well a march of the undead from the North, hell-bent on destroying civilisation, describes the Labour electorate quite well.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    Interesting electuon in Wellingtin TC in Somerset. An Ind candidate joined the Lib Dems during the election and won easily.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,382
    edited November 6
    viewcode said:

    People are talking about the Traitors TV show. I haven't watched it. What is the nature of the kerfuffle?

    It's the first TV programme in roughly 20 years that I've found very interesting to watch. (The previous one was probably the crime drama Waking The Dead on BBC starring Trevor Eve and Sue Johnston which started in 2001 IIRC). What's fascinating about it is the way people desperately search for evidence of whether someone is a traitor or not based on almost nothing. Doesn't sound particularly compelling written down but for some reason it is.
  • Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    59m

    Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.


    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808

    He's right. If the Republicans lose in 2028 an awful lot of people are going to jail, from Trump's inner circle to ICE agents. Bannon is evil, but not stupid. He understands how high the sakes are.

    Which is why they will do everything to ensure there is no free and fair election in 2028.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,727

    viewcode said:

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
    So the message from PB tonight is..."winter is coming" :):)
    Well a march of the undead from the North, hell-bent on destroying civilisation, describes the Labour electorate quite well.
    I thought the latest polls had established that was Reform voters?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,562

    viewcode said:

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
    So the message from PB tonight is..."winter is coming" :):)
    Well a march of the undead from the North, hell-bent on destroying civilisation, describes the Labour electorate quite well.
    I thought the latest polls had established that was Reform voters?
    Never underestimate the ability of Labour to marshal its client zombie army in the name of sowshull justice.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,382
    "Cat killed by driverless taxi sparking neighbourhood fury

    Waymo car mowed down KitKat, a brown tabby beloved by the locals in San Francisco, and left the scene without stopping" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/06/cat-killed-driverless-taxi-neighbourhoor-anger
  • On topic, loving the headline "I hope Nigel Farage is putting his money where his mouth is".

    I think we're all well aware it isn't Nigel's money, comrade.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    IND gain from Lab in South Derbyshire.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,562
    Andy_JS said:

    "Cat killed by driverless taxi sparking neighbourhood fury

    Waymo car mowed down KitKat, a brown tabby beloved by the locals in San Francisco, and left the scene without stopping" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/06/cat-killed-driverless-taxi-neighbourhoor-anger

    Who would have thought a driverless car would be a pussy-magnet. Ahem.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    Snp gain in Fife. Ref gain in Harbrough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,346
    slade said:

    Another Ref gain in Newark.

    More pressure on Jenrick.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,382
    edited 12:30AM
    Harborough. Fleckney

    RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 551
    LD 453
    Con 416
    Green 102
    Lab 54

    Ref 34.96% [new]
    LD 28.74% [+2.12]
    Con 26.40% [-5.98]
    Grn 6.47% [-6.16]
    Lab 3.43% [-11.57]

    Ind previously -> 13.37%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247
    Andy_JS said:

    Harborough. Fleckney

    RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 551
    LD 453
    Con 416
    Green 102
    Lab 54

    Ref 34.96% [new]
    LD 28.74% [+2.12]
    Con 26.40% [-5.98]
    Grn 6.47% [-6.16]
    Lab 3.43% [-11.57]

    Ind previously -> 13.37%

    It's fascinating how often we're seeing REF/LD one-twos these days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,320

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    59m

    Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.


    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808

    He's right. If the Republicans lose in 2028 an awful lot of people are going to jail, from Trump's inner circle to ICE agents. Bannon is evil, but not stupid. He understands how high the sakes are.

    Which is why they will do everything to ensure there is no free and fair election in 2028.
    It is at the state level that elections are run though and after the midterms on current trends most states may be run by Democrats
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,802
    Andy_JS said:

    "Cat killed by driverless taxi sparking neighbourhood fury

    Waymo car mowed down KitKat, a brown tabby beloved by the locals in San Francisco, and left the scene without stopping" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/06/cat-killed-driverless-taxi-neighbourhoor-anger

    Was it supposed to stop and knock on all the neighbouring doors asking whose cat it was?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247

    Andy_JS said:

    "Cat killed by driverless taxi sparking neighbourhood fury

    Waymo car mowed down KitKat, a brown tabby beloved by the locals in San Francisco, and left the scene without stopping" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/06/cat-killed-driverless-taxi-neighbourhoor-anger

    Was it supposed to stop and knock on all the neighbouring doors asking whose cat it was?
    Google has a YouTube channel that contains 24 hour rolling* footage of all the cats Waymo has run down. So, if you're missing a cat, and Waymo operates in your area, just go to catkilla.youtube.com

    * Pun intended
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    rcs1000 said:

    bobbob said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    bobbob said:

    Anyone hear much today from Kier Starmer, Lisa Nandy et al on the Maccabib Tel Aviv match ? Feels like it’s all gone quiet over there

    Turns out the ban on fans wasn't because of rampant anti-Semitism in Birmingham, as anyone with a sliver of knowledge of football could have told you: https://news.sky.com/story/significant-hooliganism-within-maccabi-tel-aviv-fan-base-is-reason-for-aston-villa-match-ban-13465257

    A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.

    I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
    From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
    The police are talking shite.

    Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.

    I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,

    You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic

    Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
    So why aren't fans of other teams banned?

    Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
    Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.

    That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).

    It should have happened here.
    So you’re saying that they’ve been playing professional “soccer” for about five minutes in the US, and already have problems with badly behaved fans?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    GTA VI now set for release in November next year, not May.

    https://x.com/rockstargames/status/1986540361011880167

    Well that saves me getting the PS5 Pro for Christmas to beat the rush.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,311
    edited 5:25AM
    Just read the Executive Complaints Unit decision on Croxall and then a few other cases.
    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes..

    Embarrassingly woke doesn't begin to cover it. Day one of the next govt, shut it down and stat redundancy for everyone there
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,908
    edited 5:50AM
    Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.
    “The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”

    I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5594031-gop-dissent-growing-trump/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bobbob said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    bobbob said:

    Anyone hear much today from Kier Starmer, Lisa Nandy et al on the Maccabib Tel Aviv match ? Feels like it’s all gone quiet over there

    Turns out the ban on fans wasn't because of rampant anti-Semitism in Birmingham, as anyone with a sliver of knowledge of football could have told you: https://news.sky.com/story/significant-hooliganism-within-maccabi-tel-aviv-fan-base-is-reason-for-aston-villa-match-ban-13465257

    A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.

    I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
    From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
    The police are talking shite.

    Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.

    I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,

    You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic

    Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
    So why aren't fans of other teams banned?

    Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
    Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.

    That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).

    It should have happened here.
    So you’re saying that they’ve been playing professional “soccer” for about five minutes in the US, and already have problems with badly behaved fans?
    You have to understand, Galaxy fans are subhuman scum.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.

    “The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”

    I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5594031-gop-dissent-growing-trump/
    As you say, perceived incompetence is the risk to Reform as it sheds councillors so fast even the prison system is left trailing in its wake. Up to now, a lot of Reform's appeal has been that the two main parties have screwed up so much for so long that even if Reform is misguided, it cannot possibly be worse so give them a try.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    He would have HAD to play it up to some point though, surely?

    As the handshake was offered. "Bond... James Bond."

    On the plus side, he did get to bed every beauty in Warsaw.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Boris Johnson has led calls for Tim Davie, the BBC director-general, to “explain or resign” over the bias scandal engulfing the broadcaster.
    ...
    Mr Johnson – who clashed repeatedly with the BBC when he was prime minister and before...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/06/tim-davie-must-explain-bbc-dossier-resign-boris-johnson/ (£££)

    I am struggling to remember whose government appointed Tim Davie (Conservative) to run the BBC in 2020.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    Probably distraction for the real agents.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Britons becoming increasingly divided over ‘culture wars’
    Survey finds that young people are also losing a sense of pride in the UK and that a majority of people believe life was better in the past

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britons-becoming-increasingly-divided-over-culture-wars-6cdlh8cl6 (£££)

    My entry in the guess the subject of PB's next header competition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    Nah, that was his secretary Mary Goodnight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595
    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.

    “The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”

    I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5594031-gop-dissent-growing-trump/
    As you say, perceived incompetence is the risk to Reform as it sheds councillors so fast even the prison system is left trailing in its wake. Up to now, a lot of Reform's appeal has been that the two main parties have screwed up so much for so long that even if Reform is misguided, it cannot possibly be worse so give them a try.
    You mean the Farage "hold my pint" strategy?

    (I reckon he is one of those guys who has his pint in his own pewter tankard, hanging behind the bar at his local. Wanker.)

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380

    Britons becoming increasingly divided over ‘culture wars’
    Survey finds that young people are also losing a sense of pride in the UK and that a majority of people believe life was better in the past

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britons-becoming-increasingly-divided-over-culture-wars-6cdlh8cl6 (£££)

    My entry in the guess the subject of PB's next header competition.

    The youngsters, yearning for that better life in the past.

    Under the Tories. MarqueeMark my words....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,946

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    He would have HAD to play it up to some point though, surely?

    As the handshake was offered. "Bond... James Bond."

    On the plus side, he did get to bed every beauty in Warsaw.

    Sounds like a life of celibacy that even St Paul would have approved of.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy "Hospital-Closer" Powell?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,943
    edited 6:47AM

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    That just means they'd shaft everybody and everything else to keep within the letter of their pledge..

    I actually think that raising income tax is better than yet more other stealth tax hikes because at least this way it is completely obvious to everyone what a lying bunch of incompetent swindlers this "government" is.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,012

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Mine is still endless pics of Sydney Sweeney and other scantily clad women. It used to be wrestling, investing and classic TV.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,380

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.
    Would YOU want your kids taught by James Bond?

    "Can you name me a creature that lives under the sea?" Pause.

    "Very good Noah - yes, an octopussy...."
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,012

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Loose cannon, Powell, is shit stirring. She is going to be the focus of opposition to Starmer, or hopes to be.

    I’m sure Reeves doesn’t want to break the pledge but they need the money given they won’t cut anything like the sum they need to.
  • dunhamdunham Posts: 54

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    Probably distraction for the real agents.
    Yeah, he’d be a great decoy to take heat away from the real spooks, as the Polish security services spent all their time on the fictional one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,012

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.

    And a Lancashire stalwart, Jack Bond

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Bond_(cricketer)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    Taz said:

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Mine is still endless pics of Sydney Sweeney and other scantily clad women. It used to be wrestling, investing and classic TV.
    Miss Sweeney is in the news again, after refusing to apologise to some woke hack for the “great jeans” adverts.

    As for the Twitter algorithm, perhaps it’s just learning what every baby already knows - b00bies!!
  • eekeek Posts: 31,842
    Taz said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Loose cannon, Powell, is shit stirring. She is going to be the focus of opposition to Starmer, or hopes to be.

    I’m sure Reeves doesn’t want to break the pledge but they need the money given they won’t cut anything like the sum they need to.
    Give Powell a choice on TV, cut £30bn from benefits or raise taxes.

    And watch her squirm
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    edited 7:06AM
    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,104

    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.

    This is really not good.

    I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,104
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Loose cannon, Powell, is shit stirring. She is going to be the focus of opposition to Starmer, or hopes to be.

    I’m sure Reeves doesn’t want to break the pledge but they need the money given they won’t cut anything like the sum they need to.
    Give Powell a choice on TV, cut £30bn from benefits or raise taxes.

    And watch her squirm
    I think this is possibly because she knows that they won't, and wants to appear to be making a succcessful intervention on behalf of the members.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
    My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.

    All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247

    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.

    This is really not good.

    I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
    Ah yes, that famous American Rupert Murdoch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247
    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    (Slightly cheekily)

    Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Loose cannon, Powell, is shit stirring. She is going to be the focus of opposition to Starmer, or hopes to be.

    I’m sure Reeves doesn’t want to break the pledge but they need the money given they won’t cut anything like the sum they need to.
    Give Powell a choice on TV, cut £30bn from benefits or raise taxes.

    And watch her squirm
    I think this is possibly because she knows that they won't, and wants to appear to be making a succcessful intervention on behalf of the members.
    How much of that £30bn of tax rises is to pay for the 600k+ people "on the sick" post-Covid who don't want to work?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,096

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
    My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.

    All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
    I'm surprised there hasn't been more rage about the reduction of the VAT threshold from (I think) £90k to £30k.

    I do think the 'best' (least worst) thing would be a rise in income tax. Labour aren't going to cut anything substantial, and the alternative is the introduction of new taxes and/or hiking a thousand little taxes that will have a worse overall impact.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595
    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.

    Labour won't escape it either.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    rcs1000 said:

    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.

    This is really not good.

    I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
    Ah yes, that famous American Rupert Murdoch.
    The guy who became American so he could buy into American media!
  • dunhamdunham Posts: 54
    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
    My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.

    All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
    The still to come is going to be a clampdown on sole traders, and a reduction in the VAT allowance. Everyone’s going to have to be a company collecting VAT and paying Employer NI.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,247
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.

    This is really not good.

    I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
    Ah yes, that famous American Rupert Murdoch.
    The guy who became American so he could buy into American media!
    Sure: but once you make citizenship purchasable like ... checks ... most developed world countries, then it's a technical rather than a real distinction.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,647
    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    Reducing the personal allowance is difficult because it is already dangerously close to the state pension. Ignore the politics – the country is not set up for millions more pensioners having to submit tax returns.

    Higher rate tax relief could be targeted, and even defended on fairness grounds although it might hurt the political classes.

    ISAs maybe. It depends what you think ISAs are for. Most of the speculation has been around limiting cash ISAs to boost S&S ISAs in order to invest in Britain (or more likely America) rather than overall curtailment.

    Liz Truss was right. We need more growth, just not the way she went about it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    (Slightly cheekily)

    Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
    Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,657

    NEW THREAD

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
    My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.

    All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
    I'm surprised there hasn't been more rage about the reduction of the VAT threshold from (I think) £90k to £30k.

    I do think the 'best' (least worst) thing would be a rise in income tax. Labour aren't going to cut anything substantial, and the alternative is the introduction of new taxes and/or hiking a thousand little taxes that will have a worse overall impact.
    The best thing is for Sunak/Hunt to be back in charge.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,096
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    (Slightly cheekily)

    Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
    Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
    I agree, but Labour and their innumerate MPs are way more comfortable 'hitting the rich' and reducing tax income than 'hitting the working class' and increasing tax income. Ideology trumps mathematics for those drunk on left wing nonsense.

    A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,595
    Sandpit said:

    scampi25 said:

    Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.

    Of course.

    This is Labour.
    When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with

    1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by

    2. a new PM who will be welcomed with

    3. Labour polling in single figures.
    My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.

    All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
    The still to come is going to be a clampdown on sole traders, and a reduction in the VAT allowance. Everyone’s going to have to be a company collecting VAT and paying Employer NI.
    This government don't understand private business and, indeed, think it's by and large a criminal enterprise.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,392

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.

    Labour won't escape it either.
    Given their current polling, my view is they should go for it. It can’t really get any worse for them, given that the latest poll had them down to c.25 seats.

    And I have to say as one of the few who might conceivably vote Labour at the next election, my vote will depend upon them having made serious progress in tackling the sinkhole in public finances. If the Powell faction take over I’m out.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,854
    Is Greensill complaining that Badenoch has damaged the case against himself?
    He could always make a full and frank confession.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/badenoch-accused-of-interfering-cameron-lobbying-scandal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,132
    dunham said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
    How does someone in a 2-bed council flat in London afford £5,000 a year in new taxes?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,842
    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
    How does someone in a 2-bed council flat in London afford £5,000 a year in new taxes?
    You could set a maximum amount for social housing - would remove the incentive to buy it if the tax went from £1000 to £5000 on purchase
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,499
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    (Slightly cheekily)

    Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
    Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
    That's the artful sleight-of-hand in the use of Art Laffer's curve.

    That it's anchored at (0,0) and (100, 0) is trivial.

    That it loops up in-between is obvious.

    That it has a maximum somewhere on the middle is plausible- how wobbly that is isn't that important.

    That any given tax system is on the bit of the curve where lower rates = higher revenue is largely assertion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,869
    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    If Labour are going to break any manifesto commitment (it was stupid to make the rax one in the first place) then better to be the Triple Lock. It needs to end soon anyway, and Labour have a negligible share of the pensioners vote. It also puts the spot on the Tories as they would have to find funds to re-instate it. Pensions dwarf other parts of the welfare budget.

    It doesnt prevent a rise in the pension in any budget, simply ends the automatic nature. Similar to when the fuel tax escalator ended.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,665

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    59m

    Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.


    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808

    That’s a silly cut quote.

    They’ve made it appear it’s a mea culpa.

    It wasn’t - it was a justification for “more action, more intense action” - a rallying cry to double down
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,665

    viewcode said:

    My X feed seems to be filling up nicely with medium range weather types saying mid november onwards is gonna be cold, cold, cold.

    DYOR

    Otherwise known as “winter” I suppose.
    So the message from PB tonight is..."winter is coming" :):)
    Well a march of the undead from the North, hell-bent on destroying civilisation, describes the Labour electorate quite well.
    And where are the stalwart defenders of the Red Wall?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,665
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    That’s actually a good way to distract the enemy.

    Send in 6 James Bonds. Then a real on.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,665
    rcs1000 said:

    Sky owner Comcast in talks to buy ITV’s broadcasting arm for £2bn
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn

    More British assets to be sold abroad.

    This is really not good.

    I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
    Ah yes, that famous American Rupert Murdoch.
    I think he is American these days
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,665
    dunham said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
    And that’s exactly what they should do.

    It’s about £90billion pa.

    About 40% of the money should be used to pay for social care (reducing council tax to a local tax for local services) and to eliminate stamp duty (double taxation).

    50% should be used to reduce the deficit (even that’s less than half the deficit but it’s a meaningful chunk!) and 10% used to reduce employer NICs.

    But that’s not a job for this budget. It would take at least a year of carefully preparing the ground with the public
  • TresTres Posts: 3,181

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.

    Labour won't escape it either.
    Tuition fees wasn't actually in the LD manifesto, it was the PPCs jumping on a bandwagon during the campaign.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,214
    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    Do you have a link to a source?

    One likes to think, that if that happened, someone in Whitehall allowed the faintest shadow of smile as they had their tea.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,214

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    That’s actually a good way to distract the enemy.

    Send in 6 James Bonds. Then a real on.
    And Harry Palmer
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,991

    rcs1000 said:

    In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?

    James. Bond.

    And the Polish security service lost its mind.

    They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.

    In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.

    That’s actually a good way to distract the enemy.

    Send in 6 James Bonds. Then a real on.
    And Harry Palmer
    And Kim Philby to Washington.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,608

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    dunham said:

    Labour should stand by its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, its deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes

    Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
    Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.

    1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
    1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
    1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn

    If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.

    Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
    (Slightly cheekily)

    Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
    Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
    I agree, but Labour and their innumerate MPs are way more comfortable 'hitting the rich' and reducing tax income than 'hitting the working class' and increasing tax income. Ideology trumps mathematics for those drunk on left wing nonsense.

    A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
    AFAICS the floated proposal is to offset it against a reduction in NI, so the net amount raised would be about £6 bn pa rather than £17-18bn .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,991
    GOP corruption is off the charts.

    https://www.newschannel5.com/news/former-tenn-house-speaker-casada-and-former-aide-pardoned-by-trump-tennessee-journal-reports
    Former Tennessee House Speaker Glen Casada and his former chief of staff, Cade Cothren, have been pardoned by President Donald Trump, wiping away their public corruption convictions tied to a fake political consulting firm, according to the Tennessee Journal...

    ..Casada and Cothren were convicted last year of running a kickback and bribery scheme through a company called Phoenix Solutions, which prosecutors said was created to funnel taxpayer money to themselves.

    Cothren secretly operated the company under the alias “Matthew Phoenix” after resigning in 2019 amid a racist and sexist texting scandal that also led to Casada’s fall from power.

    Casada was sentenced to three years in prison and Cothren to two and a half. Former state Rep. Robin Smith, who cooperated with prosecutors and testified against them, received an eight-month sentence.
Sign In or Register to comment.