People are talking about the Traitors TV show. I haven't watched it. What is the nature of the kerfuffle?
It's an entertaining series based on the difficulty in deciding who is bluffing/double-bluffing whom. Because it's TV, they successfully got lots of people engaged and rooting for one or another of the teams.
That I understand, but there was an uptick in people being upset by it tonight. I'll google, see what happened.
Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax in upcoming budget
The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month
Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances.
The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month.
The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.
This is in line with my thinking. In isolation it will raise around £12bn. In addition 47 or 48% for the additional rate which will raise less than £1bn but will be done to send a political message about 'fairness' and 'making those with the broadest shoulders pay more'.
It's going to be utterly grim for additional rate taxpayers, we're going to get squeezed like a fiscal Singapore grip.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 5h Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?
The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic
How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
If Reform were to win the next election (a big “if”) it’ll be as a minority propped up by the rump of the Tories or a 330-340 seat sort of victory, IMHO.
I don’t have the same confidence that tactical voting will be the complete spoiler that some think on here, but I think it’s clear it’ll have some impact, and it will definitely prevent a complete wipeout for Lab/LD
There is a possibility that the period before the next election will be like 1994-1997 and Farage will consolidate a Blair-level domination of mainstream politics.
I think he’s far too marmite to win big in a first election. If he were to actually get to Downing Street in the first place, things start to become interesting, but it must remain more likely than not that he’d struggle to hold together a coherent and stable government given his record.
I think the broader point about all this is the growing antisemitism that we are seeing in this country over recent years. That Jewish communities thrived in Britain during the twentieth century while they were subject to pogroms and worse elsewhere is something we should justly be proud of. And now, that tradition is now in serious jeopardy and far too many of our citizens are blind to it (wilfully in some cases).
I'm Jewish by the formal; definition (maternal line), and I'm proud of the extent to which countries helped in the face of the Nazi atrocities, especially Denmark and Sweden, but also Britain for the resasons you say.That doesn't extend to supporting Netanyahu and his disgusting regime. I don't see why Jewish people should be expected to think differently or, conversely, why they should be blamed for it if they didn't vote for him.
Eight months ago, Rep. Sylvester Turner D-TX died. His seat in the U.S. House is still vacant. On Tuesday, two Dems advanced to a runoff for that seat. When is the runoff?? We don't know.
Congressional terms are only 24 months. That's absurd.
Although in Ireland it is accepted as normal that the government will delay Dail by-elections as long as possible if it gives them an advantage. They're expected to delay the by-election to elect the replacement TD for the new President for the full six months allowed by law.
A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.
I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
The police are talking shite.
Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.
I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,
You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic
Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
So why aren't fans of other teams banned?
Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.
That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 5h Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?
The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic
How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
If Reform were to win the next election (a big “if”) it’ll be as a minority propped up by the rump of the Tories or a 330-340 seat sort of victory, IMHO.
I don’t have the same confidence that tactical voting will be the complete spoiler that some think on here, but I think it’s clear it’ll have some impact, and it will definitely prevent a complete wipeout for Lab/LD
There is a possibility that the period before the next election will be like 1994-1997 and Farage will consolidate a Blair-level domination of mainstream politics.
I think he’s far too marmite to win big in a first election. If he were to actually get to Downing Street in the first place, things start to become interesting, but it must remain more likely than not that he’d struggle to hold together a coherent and stable government given his record.
At the moment he seems very serious about not only winning but governing and that will create its own momentum. He could end up being the best-prepared first term PM since Thatcher.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 5h Has there ever been an opinion poll, since polling began, that would have entailed Labour getting fewer than 25 seats?
The polls are absurd at the moment, it is surely not worth extrapolating anything from them. To have a party with 5 MPs predicted to get over 400 seats is so fantastic that it must break any model used to deduce the parliamentary arithmetic
How could you bet on it? 3/1 Reform Maj 10/11 most seats will look like the ones that got away if they do it, or the muggiest get ever if they crash and burn.
The 3/1 on Reform majority looks to be good value. In a world where the electorate is so fractured, then getting 30+% can result in a massive victory.
People are talking about the Traitors TV show. I haven't watched it. What is the nature of the kerfuffle?
It's the first TV programme in roughly 20 years that I've found very interesting to watch. (The previous one was probably the crime drama Waking The Dead on BBC starring Trevor Eve and Sue Johnston which started in 2001 IIRC). What's fascinating about it is the way people desperately search for evidence of whether someone is a traitor or not based on almost nothing. Doesn't sound particularly compelling written down but for some reason it is.
He's right. If the Republicans lose in 2028 an awful lot of people are going to jail, from Trump's inner circle to ICE agents. Bannon is evil, but not stupid. He understands how high the sakes are.
Which is why they will do everything to ensure there is no free and fair election in 2028.
He's right. If the Republicans lose in 2028 an awful lot of people are going to jail, from Trump's inner circle to ICE agents. Bannon is evil, but not stupid. He understands how high the sakes are.
Which is why they will do everything to ensure there is no free and fair election in 2028.
It is at the state level that elections are run though and after the midterms on current trends most states may be run by Democrats
Was it supposed to stop and knock on all the neighbouring doors asking whose cat it was?
Google has a YouTube channel that contains 24 hour rolling* footage of all the cats Waymo has run down. So, if you're missing a cat, and Waymo operates in your area, just go to catkilla.youtube.com
A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.
I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
The police are talking shite.
Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.
I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,
You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic
Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
So why aren't fans of other teams banned?
Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.
That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).
It should have happened here.
So you’re saying that they’ve been playing professional “soccer” for about five minutes in the US, and already have problems with badly behaved fans?
Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.
“The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”
I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
A lot of ill-informed hyperventilating on PB a few weeks ago.
I reckon there is a fair bit of anti-semitism in Birmingham though. More than a sliver. And if it hadn't been a place with so many muslims living there, the away fans would have been allowed
From that police statement it looks like they were worried about the Maccabi fans targeting Brummies.
The police are talking shite.
Jews were being threatened by anti-Semites, and the response by the police was to tell the Jews not to come.
I think the problem is that you can only see Jewish people as Jews regardless of any other attributes,
You are unable to see Israeli football hooligans as anything but Jews therefore preventing them attacking Britain is antisemitic
Thankfully most people in this country aren’t racist so do can understand the difference.
So why aren't fans of other teams banned?
Anx why was the ban implemented following threats from local anti-Semiites?
Well, normally when trouble is expected then fans (with tickets) are bussed in from afar.
That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).
It should have happened here.
So you’re saying that they’ve been playing professional “soccer” for about five minutes in the US, and already have problems with badly behaved fans?
You have to understand, Galaxy fans are subhuman scum.
Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.
“The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”
I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?
As you say, perceived incompetence is the risk to Reform as it sheds councillors so fast even the prison system is left trailing in its wake. Up to now, a lot of Reform's appeal has been that the two main parties have screwed up so much for so long that even if Reform is misguided, it cannot possibly be worse so give them a try.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
He would have HAD to play it up to some point though, surely?
As the handshake was offered. "Bond... James Bond."
On the plus side, he did get to bed every beauty in Warsaw.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Good morning. Interesting take on Trump, MAGA and the GOP which may be a precursor to how people will view Reform in the future.
“The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”
I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?
As you say, perceived incompetence is the risk to Reform as it sheds councillors so fast even the prison system is left trailing in its wake. Up to now, a lot of Reform's appeal has been that the two main parties have screwed up so much for so long that even if Reform is misguided, it cannot possibly be worse so give them a try.
You mean the Farage "hold my pint" strategy?
(I reckon he is one of those guys who has his pint in his own pewter tankard, hanging behind the bar at his local. Wanker.)
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
He would have HAD to play it up to some point though, surely?
As the handshake was offered. "Bond... James Bond."
On the plus side, he did get to bed every beauty in Warsaw.
Sounds like a life of celibacy that even St Paul would have approved of.
That just means they'd shaft everybody and everything else to keep within the letter of their pledge..
I actually think that raising income tax is better than yet more other stealth tax hikes because at least this way it is completely obvious to everyone what a lying bunch of incompetent swindlers this "government" is.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.
Would YOU want your kids taught by James Bond?
"Can you name me a creature that lives under the sea?" Pause.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
Probably distraction for the real agents.
Yeah, he’d be a great decoy to take heat away from the real spooks, as the Polish security services spent all their time on the fictional one.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
There was a Newham primary school headteacher called Jim Bond back in the 90s-ish.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more rage about the reduction of the VAT threshold from (I think) £90k to £30k.
I do think the 'best' (least worst) thing would be a rise in income tax. Labour aren't going to cut anything substantial, and the alternative is the introduction of new taxes and/or hiking a thousand little taxes that will have a worse overall impact.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
The still to come is going to be a clampdown on sole traders, and a reduction in the VAT allowance. Everyone’s going to have to be a company collecting VAT and paying Employer NI.
I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
Ah yes, that famous American Rupert Murdoch.
The guy who became American so he could buy into American media!
Sure: but once you make citizenship purchasable like ... checks ... most developed world countries, then it's a technical rather than a real distinction.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Reducing the personal allowance is difficult because it is already dangerously close to the state pension. Ignore the politics – the country is not set up for millions more pensioners having to submit tax returns.
Higher rate tax relief could be targeted, and even defended on fairness grounds although it might hurt the political classes.
ISAs maybe. It depends what you think ISAs are for. Most of the speculation has been around limiting cash ISAs to boost S&S ISAs in order to invest in Britain (or more likely America) rather than overall curtailment.
Liz Truss was right. We need more growth, just not the way she went about it.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
(Slightly cheekily)
Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more rage about the reduction of the VAT threshold from (I think) £90k to £30k.
I do think the 'best' (least worst) thing would be a rise in income tax. Labour aren't going to cut anything substantial, and the alternative is the introduction of new taxes and/or hiking a thousand little taxes that will have a worse overall impact.
The best thing is for Sunak/Hunt to be back in charge.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
(Slightly cheekily)
Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
I agree, but Labour and their innumerate MPs are way more comfortable 'hitting the rich' and reducing tax income than 'hitting the working class' and increasing tax income. Ideology trumps mathematics for those drunk on left wing nonsense.
A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
Re the tax rises. I reject the whole idea, unless they're accompanied by serious welfare cuts and significant reforms to health and social care. Otherwise they'll be back for more and more tax before the year is out.
Of course.
This is Labour.
When Labour inevitably DO have to come back for more and more, it will be with
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
My gardener, who is one of the calmest and nicest people you could ever imagine - and never talks politics - was spitting teeth about Labour when he came over on Wednesday for the Winter cut-back.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
The still to come is going to be a clampdown on sole traders, and a reduction in the VAT allowance. Everyone’s going to have to be a company collecting VAT and paying Employer NI.
This government don't understand private business and, indeed, think it's by and large a criminal enterprise.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.
Labour won't escape it either.
Given their current polling, my view is they should go for it. It can’t really get any worse for them, given that the latest poll had them down to c.25 seats.
And I have to say as one of the few who might conceivably vote Labour at the next election, my vote will depend upon them having made serious progress in tackling the sinkhole in public finances. If the Powell faction take over I’m out.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
How does someone in a 2-bed council flat in London afford £5,000 a year in new taxes?
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
How does someone in a 2-bed council flat in London afford £5,000 a year in new taxes?
You could set a maximum amount for social housing - would remove the incentive to buy it if the tax went from £1000 to £5000 on purchase
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
(Slightly cheekily)
Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
That's the artful sleight-of-hand in the use of Art Laffer's curve.
That it's anchored at (0,0) and (100, 0) is trivial.
That it loops up in-between is obvious.
That it has a maximum somewhere on the middle is plausible- how wobbly that is isn't that important.
That any given tax system is on the bit of the curve where lower rates = higher revenue is largely assertion.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
If Labour are going to break any manifesto commitment (it was stupid to make the rax one in the first place) then better to be the Triple Lock. It needs to end soon anyway, and Labour have a negligible share of the pensioners vote. It also puts the spot on the Tories as they would have to find funds to re-instate it. Pensions dwarf other parts of the welfare budget.
It doesnt prevent a rise in the pension in any budget, simply ends the automatic nature. Similar to when the fuel tax escalator ended.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
Quite a lot of money could be raised by an annual property/council tax set at 1% of the value of the property, so someone with a property worth £500,000 would pay £5,000 per annum.
And that’s exactly what they should do.
It’s about £90billion pa.
About 40% of the money should be used to pay for social care (reducing council tax to a local tax for local services) and to eliminate stamp duty (double taxation).
50% should be used to reduce the deficit (even that’s less than half the deficit but it’s a meaningful chunk!) and 10% used to reduce employer NICs.
But that’s not a job for this budget. It would take at least a year of carefully preparing the ground with the public
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Yes, it's a really bad idea to break manifesto promises. Tories did it over immigration, the Lib Dems over tuition fees.
Labour won't escape it either.
Tuition fees wasn't actually in the LD manifesto, it was the PPCs jumping on a bandwagon during the campaign.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
Do you have a link to a source?
One likes to think, that if that happened, someone in Whitehall allowed the faintest shadow of smile as they had their tea.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
In 1962, the British Embassy in Warsaw posted a perfectly ordinary, non-cloak-and-dagger trade official to Poland. His actual, legal, HM-Government-on-the-business-card name?
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
Lucy Powell is right, because breaking key manifesto promises is a flagrant breach of trust. There are many other ways to increase the tax take that target the better off. The total ISA annual tax-free allowance could be cut to £5000 for both cash and stocks combined. There could be a reform of property taxes with a property revaluation, so that council tax is directly proportional to the value of a property.
Rough figures from Pref Penson last week, assuming no behavioural changes.
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m 1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn 1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
(Slightly cheekily)
Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
Art Laffer would of course argue that adding 10p to the 45p rate is more likely to result in £3.5bn less income tax being paid than £3.5bn more.
I agree, but Labour and their innumerate MPs are way more comfortable 'hitting the rich' and reducing tax income than 'hitting the working class' and increasing tax income. Ideology trumps mathematics for those drunk on left wing nonsense.
A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
AFAICS the floated proposal is to offset it against a reduction in NI, so the net amount raised would be about £6 bn pa rather than £17-18bn .
..Casada and Cothren were convicted last year of running a kickback and bribery scheme through a company called Phoenix Solutions, which prosecutors said was created to funnel taxpayer money to themselves.
Cothren secretly operated the company under the alias “Matthew Phoenix” after resigning in 2019 amid a racist and sexist texting scandal that also led to Casada’s fall from power.
Casada was sentenced to three years in prison and Cothren to two and a half. Former state Rep. Robin Smith, who cooperated with prosecutors and testified against them, received an eight-month sentence.
Comments
DYOR
@RpsAgainstTrump
·
59m
Steve Bannon: If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1986561872674627808
Although in Ireland it is accepted as normal that the government will delay Dail by-elections as long as possible if it gives them an advantage. They're expected to delay the by-election to elect the replacement TD for the new President for the full six months allowed by law.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/29/steve-bannon-released-from-prison-early-a-week-before-us-election
That happens here in LA when the Galaxy plays LAFC. I've seen it with Arsenal v Chelsea (including shit being thrown at the Chelsea supporters buses by... enthusiastic... Arsenal fans).
It should have happened here.
Which is why they will do everything to ensure there is no free and fair election in 2028.
Waymo car mowed down KitKat, a brown tabby beloved by the locals in San Francisco, and left the scene without stopping" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/06/cat-killed-driverless-taxi-neighbourhoor-anger
I think we're all well aware it isn't Nigel's money, comrade.
RefUK gain from Con
RefUK 551
LD 453
Con 416
Green 102
Lab 54
Ref 34.96% [new]
LD 28.74% [+2.12]
Con 26.40% [-5.98]
Grn 6.47% [-6.16]
Lab 3.43% [-11.57]
Ind previously -> 13.37%
* Pun intended
https://x.com/rockstargames/status/1986540361011880167
Well that saves me getting the PS5 Pro for Christmas to beat the rush.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes..
Embarrassingly woke doesn't begin to cover it. Day one of the next govt, shut it down and stat redundancy for everyone there
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/sky-owner-comcast-in-talks-to-buy-itvs-broadcasting-arm-for-2bn
More British assets to be sold abroad.
I recall meeting my future MP (a seasoned Tory) who asked if I'd be voting for him. I suggested that at the time I wouldn't but I might if his party could show some competence - basically what anyone wants. Why pay for fools whose answer to everything is to cosplay Victor Meldrew?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5594031-gop-dissent-growing-trump/
James. Bond.
And the Polish security service lost its mind.
They surveilled him like hawks, assuming MI6 had gone full chaotic-neutral and sent in a spy brazenly named after a fictional super-spy. The poor man’s every boring diplomatic diary entry was treated as potential espionage, every dull trade meeting tagged as “suspicious,” and entire teams were assigned to tail him because the name alone was too much for them to ignore.
In reality, the guy wasn’t doing any spying at all. His biggest covert operation was probably filling out customs forms.
As the handshake was offered. "Bond... James Bond."
On the plus side, he did get to bed every beauty in Warsaw.
...
Mr Johnson – who clashed repeatedly with the BBC when he was prime minister and before...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/06/tim-davie-must-explain-bbc-dossier-resign-boris-johnson/ (£££)
I am struggling to remember whose government appointed Tim Davie (Conservative) to run the BBC in 2020.
Survey finds that young people are also losing a sense of pride in the UK and that a majority of people believe life was better in the past
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britons-becoming-increasingly-divided-over-culture-wars-6cdlh8cl6 (£££)
My entry in the guess the subject of PB's next header competition.
This is Labour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/lucy-powell-says-labour-must-stand-by-promise-not-to-raise-key-taxes
(I reckon he is one of those guys who has his pint in his own pewter tankard, hanging behind the bar at his local. Wanker.)
1. a new Chancellor, followed shortly after by
2. a new PM who will be welcomed with
3. Labour polling in single figures.
Under the Tories. MarqueeMark my words....
I actually think that raising income tax is better than yet more other stealth tax hikes because at least this way it is completely obvious to everyone what a lying bunch of incompetent swindlers this "government" is.
"Can you name me a creature that lives under the sea?" Pause.
"Very good Noah - yes, an octopussy...."
I’m sure Reeves doesn’t want to break the pledge but they need the money given they won’t cut anything like the sum they need to.
And a Lancashire stalwart, Jack Bond
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Bond_(cricketer)
As for the Twitter algorithm, perhaps it’s just learning what every baby already knows - b00bies!!
And watch her squirm
1p on 45p income tax rate raises £350m
1p on 40p income tax rate raises £2.7bn
1p on 20p income tax rate raises £8.4bn
If she’s avoiding income tax rates, the only real money left is on reducing the personal allowance and income tax relief on pension payments.
Alternatively, they could take an axe to public spending.
I would like to see strict prohibition of foreign ownership on all British media - the same as the US.
All the taxes, VAT, business rates have hit him hard, and he's exasperated more is to come.
Isn't that like assuming no gravity?
I do think the 'best' (least worst) thing would be a rise in income tax. Labour aren't going to cut anything substantial, and the alternative is the introduction of new taxes and/or hiking a thousand little taxes that will have a worse overall impact.
Labour won't escape it either.
Higher rate tax relief could be targeted, and even defended on fairness grounds although it might hurt the political classes.
ISAs maybe. It depends what you think ISAs are for. Most of the speculation has been around limiting cash ISAs to boost S&S ISAs in order to invest in Britain (or more likely America) rather than overall curtailment.
Liz Truss was right. We need more growth, just not the way she went about it.
NEW THREAD
A general 2p increase on income tax would actually indicate Starmer and Reeves want to fix the public finances, and are serious about doing it. I'd not be thrilled about it, but credible alternatives look worse.
And I have to say as one of the few who might conceivably vote Labour at the next election, my vote will depend upon them having made serious progress in tackling the sinkhole in public finances. If the Powell faction take over I’m out.
He could always make a full and frank confession.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/06/badenoch-accused-of-interfering-cameron-lobbying-scandal
That it's anchored at (0,0) and (100, 0) is trivial.
That it loops up in-between is obvious.
That it has a maximum somewhere on the middle is plausible- how wobbly that is isn't that important.
That any given tax system is on the bit of the curve where lower rates = higher revenue is largely assertion.
It doesnt prevent a rise in the pension in any budget, simply ends the automatic nature. Similar to when the fuel tax escalator ended.
They’ve made it appear it’s a mea culpa.
It wasn’t - it was a justification for “more action, more intense action” - a rallying cry to double down
Send in 6 James Bonds. Then a real on.
It’s about £90billion pa.
About 40% of the money should be used to pay for social care (reducing council tax to a local tax for local services) and to eliminate stamp duty (double taxation).
50% should be used to reduce the deficit (even that’s less than half the deficit but it’s a meaningful chunk!) and 10% used to reduce employer NICs.
But that’s not a job for this budget. It would take at least a year of carefully preparing the ground with the public
One likes to think, that if that happened, someone in Whitehall allowed the faintest shadow of smile as they had their tea.
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/former-tenn-house-speaker-casada-and-former-aide-pardoned-by-trump-tennessee-journal-reports
Former Tennessee House Speaker Glen Casada and his former chief of staff, Cade Cothren, have been pardoned by President Donald Trump, wiping away their public corruption convictions tied to a fake political consulting firm, according to the Tennessee Journal...
..Casada and Cothren were convicted last year of running a kickback and bribery scheme through a company called Phoenix Solutions, which prosecutors said was created to funnel taxpayer money to themselves.
Cothren secretly operated the company under the alias “Matthew Phoenix” after resigning in 2019 amid a racist and sexist texting scandal that also led to Casada’s fall from power.
Casada was sentenced to three years in prison and Cothren to two and a half. Former state Rep. Robin Smith, who cooperated with prosecutors and testified against them, received an eight-month sentence.