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An update on my 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband succeeding Sir Keir Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,946
    Bucks County, PA

    Democrat Joe Khan has defeated Incumbent Republican District Attorney Jennifer Schorn.

    He is the first Democrat to be elected District Attorney in the county since the 1800s.

    https://x.com/ThePoliticalHQ/status/1986208696662122898
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,831
    Nigelb said:

    A few GOP house members say they’ve heard from FBI/DOJ contacts that the Epstein files (with copies in different agencies) are worse than Michael Wolff’s description of Epstein photos showingTrump with half naked teenage girls. Speculation/rumors sweeping through GOP caucus.
    https://x.com/DavidShuster/status/1986248094745285064

    The latest plan is to avoid seating the Arizona Congresswoman who would be the crucial vote to release them until another election in Tennessee that they hope will go the other way
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,089

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. Today’s Russian oil refinery on fire is Lukoil Volgograd again.
    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/1986204779731886473?s=12

    Meanwhile, the Schengen visa zone is to stop issuing new tourist or residency visas to Russians.
    https://x.com/tweet4annanafo/status/1986194987038490817

    Are you sure the embargo applies to all visitors, and not just heavy smokers?
    It sounds like they’re clamping down on multi-entry visas at the Schengen level, tourist visas being a national competence rather than an EU competence.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-visa-rules-russians-schengen-war-in-ukraine/

    There will apparently be humanitarian exceptions allowed, which presumably applies to anyone at risk of an unfortunate accident involving windows in tall buildings.

    UK has also delivered another batch of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, well done to all those involved. One large Russian weapons dump near Pokrovsk also had a bit of a smoking problem last night.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,946
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Economist is probably right about this.

    "The meaning of Mamdani
    Democrats risk drawing the wrong lessons from one good day
    Moderate governors offer a better model than a charming socialist in New York" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/11/05/democrats-risk-drawing-the-wrong-lessons-from-one-good-day

    Hmmm. The Democrats (and anglophone centre-left-wing parties) have fallen into a pattern of "we must go more right-wing to get elected" whilst in opposition and "we must go more right-wing to get reelected" whilst in government. It creates parties that can't justify what they are doing other than "we want to get elected". Mamdani offered a better future and was willing to tell the right to eff-off, and did so with humour, and he won. Leaving aside his policy content, his election approach should be noted and copied.
    Up to a point.
    Different types of candidates appeal to different electorates. NYC is one thing; PA (for instance) another.
    The other point is that Mamdani will have a record in government - for better or worse - by the time of the next election.

    If you're saying the Democrats need to be a broad church, I entirely agree, though. And it's also a truism that they should pick good campaigners over bad ones.
    Someone agrees with me.

    AOC’s exactly right here. The takeaway from last night can’t be that Dems need to run candidates like Mamdani everywhere or run like Spanberger everywhere, but that a big tent Democratic Party has to have room for both.
    https://x.com/nagy_minaj/status/1986064857632792890
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,630

    NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,089
    carnforth said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @benrileysmith
    🚘 EXCLUSIVE 🚘

    A new pay-per-mile tax will be unveiled in the Budget for electric cars which will kick in from 2028

    It will cost the average eco driver £250 a year and longer-distance travellers much more than that

    It will be levied at 3p per mile on current Treasury plans. (The equivalent of £12 for an EV drive from London to Edinburgh.)

    The measure will be framed as one of fairness. Fuel duty - which doesn’t affect electric cars - costs 6p a mile on average

    It’s also needed to fill a growing black hole in the Treasury numbers from plummeting fuel duty revenues as people switch from petrol to electric

    The Treasury will likely play down the pay per mile element. It is being dubbed ‘VED+’ and is an annual charge to be paid alongside Vehicle Excise Duty. No journey monitoring by cameras or anything.

    But each year drivers of EVs and hybrids will need to estimate how many miles they will travel that year and pay a price directly linked to mileage.

    It is the start of a huge potential change in the taxation of cars, from at the pump to by the mile.

    It’s been long debated. Now Rachel Reeves will grasp the nettle by announcing a consultation at the Budget.

    Up to 6 million people will be driving EVs when the new charge starts in 2028.

    It opens the door in the future to all cars eventually being taxed per mile. And what about enforcement? Could drivers one day be made to prove miles traveled?

    The Treasury declined to comment on Budget speculation.

    This government really hates me, every tax increase seems to target me personally.

    I am fully expecting a luxury tax on Apple products and shoes over £700.
    People buying £700 shoes don't need taxing any more, they clearly cannot be trusted to even dress themselves in the morning.
    Sadly standard Church's black oxfords are now £940:

    https://www.church-footwear.com/gb/en/p/calfskin-oxford/EEC412_9WF_F0AAB_F_000000
    Ouch! I picked up a pair of Loake’s for £169 when I was back in the UK over the summer, which I thought was pretty reasonable. Was luckily staying around the corner from the massive Slater in Glasgow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,590
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    I do have to giggle about the EV per mile exclusive. In the Telegraph - which is the first sign that it isn’t true because so little they print as “news” is.

    Comedy - it’s pay per mile. But no monitoring. Honest motorists will fill in EV bureaucrat paperwork each year and self declare how many miles they have driven.

    What do Telegraph owners hate? Government bureaucrats and EVs. So of course they have magically conflated the two.

    As you are around - have you seen Tesla's (lack of sales) in October

    So the SMMT have published sales figures for October

    Battery EV sales rose 24% compared to October 2024

    TESLA however sold only 511 cars compared to 971 cars in October 2024 - that’s a 47% drop

    So the new models were a very temporary boost and the reality is that a Tesla car is not something people seem to want.
    Tesla sales in the first month of any given quarter are always shit. They deliver very few vehicles - never have. Which is why you need to look at the quarter
    IIRC Tesla charters ships to deliver their cars from US to UK, so they arrive in batches of 5,000 rather than steadily as with most other manufacturers who rent space on existing shipping routes.
    A slight "yes, but". About 2/3 of Tesla European sales are made in Berlin (Model Ys). YTD (Aug/Sept) approx sales figures:

    Year-to-date (Jan-Sep) sales for the Model Y are 109,793, while the Model 3 has sold 49,524 units from Jan-Aug 2025.

    That's enough for roughly one Model 3 transport from the USA every month at 5000 per.

    (As an aside, that's not a lot to my eye for a place the size of their Berlin factory.)
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