Skip to content

I wish I spoke Dutch – politicalbetting.com

1246

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    I wonder if I'm the only person who feels a little better towards Rachel after the vicious attack on her yesterday and the rather dignified way she treated it? I suspect not. There's a limit to the number of times the Mail can do this before it starts looking like a rather tawdry vendetta and they've gone way past that limit
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488
    Pulpstar said:

    Temp:

    That's some liquorice allsort.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,223

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    TBF a lot of normal people *do* have times when they need that 20K allowance - when they inherit, or when they get a pension lump sum. You don't need that much of either, even if there is some mortgage to pay off etc.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Temp:

    Pretty. But meaningless without numbers. What numerical values do the colours have?
    @PBModerator Apologies in advance for a 2nd image :E
    Thank you. Am I correct in thinking that they are absolute values (eg 7.24 = 7.24 degrees) and not changes?
    22-October 1878 -> 21st October 1879 for the minimum;

    3rd May 2006 -> 2nd May 2007 for the maximum.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,711
    viewcode said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Polls are occasionally wrong
    But they're usually not *that* wrong

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election#Polling
    The Cuomoists are at the ‘there should be an enquiry into these fake polls that have given Mamdani momentum’ stage, not usually a sign of overweening confidence.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,563
    Damning report into UK's 'complacent' fast jets programme
    The UK only has 37 out of a planned 138 F-35 jets in service - almost four decades since the programme, led by the US, was conceived.

    https://news.sky.com/story/damning-report-eviscerates-uks-complacent-fast-jets-programme-13461038

    TL/DR; no planes; no pilots; short-term savings increased long-term costs.

    The Public Accounts Committee report on which that story is based can be found at:-
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cmselect/cmpubacc/1232/report.html
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,869
    /Tongue in cheek

    The "real" reason why landlords are selling up - It's all the Tories fault and specifically George Osborne. So there is no foundation to the suggestion it's all Labour's fault.

    https://www.landlordzone.co.uk/news/section-24-tax-changes-real-reason-why-so-many-landlords-quitting

    /Tongue in cheek
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    Tourism to Norway is growing at about 15% pa and searches for terms like "cooler destinations" is up hugely
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,004
    Roger said:

    I wonder if I'm the only person who feels a little better towards Rachel after the vicious attack on her yesterday and the rather dignified way she treated it? I suspect not. There's a limit to the number of times the Mail can do this before it starts looking like a rather tawdry vendetta and they've gone way past that limit

    It's not a vendetta to laugh at a politician getting caught in the process they themselves campaigned for.

    The one they expect to be strictly applied to The Little People.

    Be careful what you do with your coffee and all that.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,446
    Roger said:

    I wonder if I'm the only person who feels a little better towards Rachel after the vicious attack on her yesterday and the rather dignified way she treated it? I suspect not. There's a limit to the number of times the Mail can do this before it starts looking like a rather tawdry vendetta and they've gone way past that limit

    That they have gone way past that limit and are still doing it, rather implies that they haven't gone past the limit.

    Or that tawdry vendettas are good for business.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    Republicans will no doubt argue that it's a problem caused by the (not in power) Dems but I suspect most people blame whoever is in government for any disruption like this, every time.
    Sure, but large businesses such as the airlines are clearly taking the GOP line that a Continuing Resolution needs to be passed by the Senate.

    They don’t care about party politics, just want to see security staff, border agents, and air traffic control get their paychecks.
    Why should the Dems care what the Airlines think? There’s nothing in it for them to pass the CR. So either the GOP compromises or it continues to fail.
    Why should the GOP compromise on continuing Biden’s budget?
    What are you on about ?
    Have you forgotten the Big Beautiful Bill already ?
    And the renewal of the Trump tax cut ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,402
    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,333
    edited October 31
    D66 - is that the Centrist Dads party?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,691
    edited October 31

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    I read somewhere that to achieve the same standard of living of the average middle class American in the 1950s, today's American would only have to work 5 to 10 hours per week. (Caveat: I can't find the source now, sorry.)

    I don't think many would have said the average middle class American lifestyle was poor in the 1950s, indeed it was the envy of the world.

    So the question is, have we used the advances in productivity and technology wisely, by acquiring ever more 'stuff' rather than enjoying more leisure?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,223
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    'few beaches *just a little bit further north*'

    Plenty in the UK north of Ribble or Humber. Though I dread tdo think of the adjustment the Free Kirk Leodhasach would have to make if Stornoway became the new Ibiza, certainly on Sundays.
    We're going to have to develop Scotland. :smile:
    I was thinking of Northumberland for instance - magnificent beaches. Be a shame to develop them ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,691
    Cookie said:

    D66 - is that the Centrist Dads party?

    Dads born in '66?
  • IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    Tourism to Norway is growing at about 15% pa and searches for terms like "cooler destinations" is up hugely
    In fairness that could also be a consequence of an ageing population. Oldies tend to be less inclined than the youngsters to spend their holiday frying on a beach.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,004

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    I read somewhere that to achieve the same standard of living of the average middle class American in the 1950s, today's American would only have to work 5 to 10 hours per week. (Caveat: I can't find the source now, sorry.)

    I don't think many would have said the average middle class American lifestyle was poor in the 1950s, indeed it was the envy of the world.

    So the question is, have we used the advances in productivity and technology wisely, by acquiring ever more 'stuff' rather than enjoying more leisure?
    Things like better toilets & showers. Roofs that last longer. Kitchen appliances that cook food better - ovens have improved incredibly, even for basic ones. Much reduced cleaning load on everything....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,691
    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    That can't be true - the push for renewables is all just a scam to charge consumers more, shirley?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,168

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, a good result for D66 and again an example of a liberal party coming top to beat a party of the populist right.

    As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.

    Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)

    The Lib Dems’ appeal is a niche one - in very affluent seats.

    The two seats that Reform won last night, are in parts of the country that are completely out of reach for the Lib Dem’s.
    Yes they need to broaden their appeal to C1 and C2 majority seats from AB heavy seats to really stop Reform
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election gives 2024 voting by class.

    LibDems
    ABC1 14%
    C2DE 11%

    It's not a huge difference. The only party with a big difference is Reform (11% v 20%).
    Yes. Earlier posts miss the point; it's the activists that are middle class, and middle class areas that have the type of people with the time, ability and inclination to put their back into campaigning to build up the LibDem vote
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    edited October 31
    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    I'm on the Octopus Agile TOU tariff, which is £138.6p / MWh at the time of your post. It's worked well so far (Though no winter done yet ;) ) (A weighted av unit cost of 16.88p/KwH since I've been on it from March) but even the TOU tariff is a mile above the wholesale rates and ~ quadruple from 4 - 7.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,199

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, a good result for D66 and again an example of a liberal party coming top to beat a party of the populist right.

    As also happened in Canada earlier this year and in France in the 2022 French presidential and legislative elections.

    Hence the better Reform do, the more there may be an opportunity for the LDs in the liberal centre if the next general election becomes more about cultural issues than the economy and the traditional battle between Conservatives and Labour (though the tax rising budget expected may see a shift back to that)

    The Lib Dems’ appeal is a niche one - in very affluent seats.

    The two seats that Reform won last night, are in parts of the country that are completely out of reach for the Lib Dem’s.
    Yes they need to broaden their appeal to C1 and C2 majority seats from AB heavy seats to really stop Reform
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election gives 2024 voting by class.

    LibDems
    ABC1 14%
    C2DE 11%

    It's not a huge difference. The only party with a big difference is Reform (11% v 20%).
    There is a difference between the LDs AB voteshare and C2s and DEs though as I alluded to.

    In 2024 the LDs got 15% with ABs, 11% with C2s and just 10% with DEs.

    So while the LDs can be the main alternative to Reform in more middle class areas (and on the latest Yougov Reform are basically tied for the lead with ABC1s with Labour with the LDs, Tories and Greens just behind) in working class areas it is still Labour the main alternative to Reform, not the LDs

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention?crossBreak=abc1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,402
    edited October 31

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    That can't be true - the push for renewables is all just a scam to charge consumers more, shirley?
    It is slightly counterintuitive tbh. When it's windy and sunny, demand for gas typically drops dramatically and therefore the cost of gas falls too. That makes our CfD contracts look like poor value for money - but the reason the gas price is so cheap is precisely because we don't need it any more.

    In the winter, we sometimes get these weeks where we have plenty of wind but the gas price remains high - I'm assuming because the rest Europe doesn't have the same wind power available and the demand for gas remains high.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,446
    edited October 31
    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    Question about that.

    It feels like the following things are true:

    a) weather that allows us to ignore the cost of gas is rare but becoming more common
    b) more wind and solar are still being added, which is why the events are becoming more common
    c) the effect on prices will be a phase transition/tipping point; not much will seem to happen for ages, then a very sharp reduction.

    Is that right, and if so, how close are we to that tipping point?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,756

    Damning report into UK's 'complacent' fast jets programme
    The UK only has 37 out of a planned 138 F-35 jets in service - almost four decades since the programme, led by the US, was conceived.

    https://news.sky.com/story/damning-report-eviscerates-uks-complacent-fast-jets-programme-13461038

    TL/DR; no planes; no pilots; short-term savings increased long-term costs.

    The Public Accounts Committee report on which that story is based can be found at:-
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cmselect/cmpubacc/1232/report.html

    It also helps explain why we have so little influence on the program compared with Israel - or even Italy, who have managed their limited resources for their F35 program far better than we have.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,199
    edited October 31

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,941

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    I read somewhere that to achieve the same standard of living of the average middle class American in the 1950s, today's American would only have to work 5 to 10 hours per week. (Caveat: I can't find the source now, sorry.)

    I don't think many would have said the average middle class American lifestyle was poor in the 1950s, indeed it was the envy of the world.

    So the question is, have we used the advances in productivity and technology wisely, by acquiring ever more 'stuff' rather than enjoying more leisure?
    You're missing that a lot of that productivity hasn't gone into 'stuff' but has gone into health for members of that family and social support for people outside of that family.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    edited October 31
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    That can't be true - the push for renewables is all just a scam to charge consumers more, shirley?
    It is slightly counterintuitive tbh. When it's windy and sunny, demand for gas typically drops dramatically and therefore the cost of gas falls too. That makes our CfD contracts look like poor value for money - but the reason the gas price is so cheap is precisely because we don't need it any more.

    In the winter, we sometimes get these weeks where we have plenty of wind but the gas price remains high - I'm assuming because the rest Europe doesn't have the same wind power available and the demand for gas remains high.
    If it's gas pushing up the prices, why am I being sold (And this changes daily for me) gas at £47.40/MwH (& Leccy at £136.70) ?

    The price cap is a bonkers £263.50/MwH, wholesales has never been anywhere near that sustained.

    I get the utility companies have other costs but the difference is crackers.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,698
    Cookie said:

    D66 - is that the Centrist Dads party?

    Arguably, the VVD are the centrist dads. D66 are the hippie radicals.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,140
    boulay said:

    Completely O/T listening to Lennie James on Desert Island Discs. What a fine, interesting, intelligent and human individual. Some great music choices too.

    Thanks for the recommendation - just listened to this on my morning walk. Lovely, heart-warming and interesting.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    That can't be true - the push for renewables is all just a scam to charge consumers more, shirley?
    It is slightly counterintuitive tbh. When it's windy and sunny, demand for gas typically drops dramatically and therefore the cost of gas falls too. That makes our CfD contracts look like poor value for money - but the reason the gas price is so cheap is precisely because we don't need it any more.

    In the winter, we sometimes get these weeks where we have plenty of wind but the gas price remains high - I'm assuming because the rest Europe doesn't have the same wind power available and the demand for gas remains high.
    If it's gas pushing up the prices, why am I being sold (And this changes daily for me) gas at £47.40/MwH (& Leccy at £136.70) ?
    Because gas power plants aren't 100% efficient?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,402
    edited October 31

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    Question about that.

    It feels like the following things are true:

    a) weather that allows us to ignore the cost of gas is rare but becoming more common
    b) more wind and solar are still being added, which is why the events are becoming more common
    c) the effect on prices will be a phase transition/tipping point; not much will seem to happen for ages, then a very sharp reduction.

    Is that right, and if so, how close are we to that tipping point?
    This idea that our energy costs are expensive because they are linked to gas is a fallacy imo. Our renewables are provided on fixed price contracts and the cost of gas doesn't effect them - that's why during Putin's invasion those contracts saved us billions - but when gas prices are low, they cost us.

    So there may come a time when 100% of electricity is domestic renewables, but that won't mean that prices crash. The only way you can achieve that is if the technology advances in some way - offshore wind has stalled at about £70 per MWh in today's prices. If gas sits at £40 per MWh then that isn't great, though there are very strong national security arguments for the economic stability renewable contracts provide. And if solar + batteries deliver us £10 per MWh...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,952
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Temp:

    Pretty. But meaningless without numbers. What numerical values do the colours have?
    @PBModerator Apologies in advance for a 2nd image :E
    Thank you. Am I correct in thinking that they are absolute values (eg 7.24 = 7.24 degrees) and not changes?
    Hmm - this would be my preferred way to show that data:



    Are you sure of your numbers? This version suggests about a 2 degree change, not 4.5.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Temp:

    Pretty. But meaningless without numbers. What numerical values do the colours have?
    @PBModerator Apologies in advance for a 2nd image :E
    Thank you. Am I correct in thinking that they are absolute values (eg 7.24 = 7.24 degrees) and not changes?
    Hmm - this would be my preferred way to show that data:



    Are you sure of your numbers? This version suggests about a 2 degree change, not 4.5.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UA-4fa4M4gQMaFPCfRiHNH-92EKvrZWgZZOKdQ9F0rU/edit?usp=sharing All numbers in there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,711
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    My best pal lives in West Village with his Jewish wife and (by default) two Jewish sons, though they’re now both at college. They’re all voting for Mamdani. The Jewish people who have gone baws deep for Bibi in their proxy Zion v Hamas war will be backing Cuomo, the ones with a more nuanced view will not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,865
    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,166
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,865

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    I read somewhere that to achieve the same standard of living of the average middle class American in the 1950s, today's American would only have to work 5 to 10 hours per week. (Caveat: I can't find the source now, sorry.)

    I don't think many would have said the average middle class American lifestyle was poor in the 1950s, indeed it was the envy of the world.

    So the question is, have we used the advances in productivity and technology wisely, by acquiring ever more 'stuff' rather than enjoying more leisure?
    Things like better toilets & showers. Roofs that last longer. Kitchen appliances that cook food better - ovens have improved incredibly, even for basic ones. Much reduced cleaning load on everything....
    It shows up too, in terms of cleaner air, longer lives, car ownership (and cars being much safer), better education etc.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324
    edited October 31
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,861
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
    That's actually quite an easy choice.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,593

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    My best pal lives in West Village with his Jewish wife and (by default) two Jewish sons, though they’re now both at college. They’re all voting for Mamdani. The Jewish people who have gone baws deep for Bibi in their proxy Zion v Hamas war will be backing Cuomo, the ones with a more nuanced view will not.
    Not sure Seinfeld's judgment is up to much generally - remember he was dating at 17 year old when he was 39.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,865
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
    That's actually quite an easy choice.
    But, still an unpleasant one.

    Cuomo is revolting, Mamdani is an idiot.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 954
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    What do we expect if we jack up visa fees to ridiculous levels, impose absurdly high aviation taxes, don't build nearly enough airport capacity, stop tourists from reclaiming VAT to the delight of the Frogs and impose planning regulations that mean that building cheap accommodation is impossible?

    As usual, a greedy, incompetent, short-sighted and stupid government (this one and the last one) shoots itself and the country in both feet.
    Why would someone come on holiday to a country where most of the news about hotels is of racists protesting outside them?
    Also the hospitality industry is particularly reliant on low waged immigrant staff. Stopping them from coming is harming our domestic tourism industry.

    Actions have consequences. Hotels and restaurants really struggle for staff.

    Perhaps they should increase wages and offer better hours?

    Actions have consequences
    Yes, higher prices and shorter hours in the UK put both foreigners and Britons from holidaying here.

    It might be good for domestic hospitality workers, but isn't good for the balance of payments.
    Your lack of sympathy for the overworked and underpaid British employee is remarkable
    IIRC lots of sympathy was displayed for those poor souls whose pay was such that their pension contributions hit the upper limits.

    The obvious answer, not taken, was to reduce their pay and pension contributions. Which would be good for the balance of payments.
    Because at that point they would just retire.

    As I pointed out last week if the Government messes around with pensions in November there are a lot of people who may switch to a 2 or 3 day week or simply completely retire...
    Just raise the pension age for them. That way the workshy so-and-soes would be forced to carry on helping the country instead of polishing their bottoms.

    If it's good enough for the minimum wage workers, it's good enough for those on mid 6 figures.
    Catch is, if you are middle class enough, the formal bits of the pension that the government controls aren't really the important bit.

    If you have a paid-off mortgage, and especially if the kids have left home properly, it can be a challenge to spend the money coming in. If you have an inheritance throwing off cash as well, doubly so.

    See the pearl-clutching at the idea of not being able to put 20k a year into a cash ISA. For normal people, that's pretty unimaginable.

    How to motivate people to work when really don't need the money is one of the great unsolved problems of our time.
    Yep - and that's me now.

    House paid off - so our outgoings are approximately £900 a month (bills go out tomorrow and I was shifting money round earlier) before food which again isn't massive.

    Now I enjoy work but I'm at the point where I really can go - if I don't like the project I can take a few months off and not panic...
    I'm currently trying to pay £25k per year on the mortgage (how much I pay off is up to me, so some flexibility) - to try to have it paid off before I retire, with enough time to save a bit more up to fill up the hole in my pension. I'm old enough that I'm not sure I will achieve the second.

    How I would spend that if I didn't have a mortgage and pension hole, I really can't imagine. That would represent about a 500% increase in my disposable income - which has never been higher in real terms than now at any point since I had children 20-odd years ago!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,952
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
    That's actually quite an easy choice.
    Depends how strong the acid is. 0.01 M HCl I'd be happy. 13.5 M HCl as bit less so...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,905
    edited October 31
    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    Well the Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote in favour of the continuing resolution.

    We now have the civil service union as well as two airlines imploring the Dem Senators to vote for the CR so that paychecks go out.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,449

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,830
    https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-reportedly-host-secret-summit-of-coalition-of-the-willing-on-nov-4/

    A not so secret meeting of Europeans about support for Ukraine.

    Why try to make it secret?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,711
    edited October 31
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
    I believe Bloomberg alone has poured $8m dollars into Cuomo’s campaign. Mildly encouraging that even now money can’t buy everything.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,830
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
    That's actually quite an easy choice.
    The difficulty is in deciding which is which.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,223

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,647
    Bartek Staniszewski @BGStaniszewski

    @CentreWrite_ is now live!

    We will be releasing a new article from a top thinker every day, starting with @andrew_lilico on Britain's intellectual right.

    https://centrewrite.brightblue.org.uk

    https://x.com/BGStaniszewski/status/1984196959511699724
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,446
    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    It will pass the sniff test for those who want it to pass the sniff test.

    As long as both sides have a story that their followers are happy with, the standoff can continue. We saw something similar here, 2016-19.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,830
    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    The complication is that the shape of the normal distribution can change, as well as its centre point.

    But people were aware of the risk of changes in extremes, though they didn't have any way to quantify that risk.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488
    edited October 31
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    'few beaches *just a little bit further north*'

    Plenty in the UK north of Ribble or Humber. Though I dread tdo think of the adjustment the Free Kirk Leodhasach would have to make if Stornoway became the new Ibiza, certainly on Sundays.
    We're going to have to develop Scotland. :smile:
    I was thinking of Northumberland for instance - magnificent beaches. Be a shame to develop them ...
    Northumberland is less heavily populated with midges aiui from my last holiday there, so it could ne an option.

    If England cooks, do Scottish midges migrate North or South?

    If they are West Coast and Damp, is it bye-bye Blackpool and Greater Manchester?

    Will @Cookie flee to Sheffield?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,952
    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    I think extremes of weather increasing are pretty much accepted - more energy in the system, more moisture in the atmosphere. Perhaps the other factor is changing of climate as things warm. The idea of the gulf stream collapsing is one, albeit unlikely (at least in the short term) but other shifts can be envisaged. The position of the jet stream is critical to the weather observed in the UK - so if we experience significant shifts in its behaviour that can be a challenge.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488

    https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-reportedly-host-secret-summit-of-coalition-of-the-willing-on-nov-4/

    A not so secret meeting of Europeans about support for Ukraine.

    Why try to make it secret?

    Perhaps to do with Spain have mainly been The Reluctant?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    It will pass the sniff test for those who want it to pass the sniff test.

    As long as both sides have a story that their followers are happy with, the standoff can continue. We saw something similar here, 2016-19.
    I think we may see an attack on Venezuela as Trump's latest diversion.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,449
    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    Only if the range of possibilities is increased. So if the sink never gets quite as cold then you've not 'gained' anything.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,830
    MattW said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    It will pass the sniff test for those who want it to pass the sniff test.

    As long as both sides have a story that their followers are happy with, the standoff can continue. We saw something similar here, 2016-19.
    I think we may see an attack on Venezuela as Trump's latest diversion.
    I don't think it would be as a diversion. It's simply something he wants to do for a variety of reasons.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,932
    edited October 31
    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    I think extremes of weather increasing are pretty much accepted - more energy in the system, more moisture in the atmosphere. Perhaps the other factor is changing of climate as things warm. The idea of the gulf stream collapsing is one, albeit unlikely (at least in the short term) but other shifts can be envisaged. The position of the jet stream is critical to the weather observed in the UK - so if we experience significant shifts in its behaviour that can be a challenge.
    There's a tipping point where stratocumulus simply breaks up - so the UK would be considerably sunnier particularly in winter, but it's about 1600 ppm CO2 so we'd all need to live like Taylor Swift powered by chinese coal to get there any time soon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,711
    MattW said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    It will pass the sniff test for those who want it to pass the sniff test.

    As long as both sides have a story that their followers are happy with, the standoff can continue. We saw something similar here, 2016-19.
    I think we may see an attack on Venezuela as Trump's latest diversion.
    Since Trump doesn’t start wars he’ll have to brand it as something else. A very special military operation perhaps?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,449
    edited October 31

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    I think extremes of weather increasing are pretty much accepted - more energy in the system, more moisture in the atmosphere. Perhaps the other factor is changing of climate as things warm. The idea of the gulf stream collapsing is one, albeit unlikely (at least in the short term) but other shifts can be envisaged. The position of the jet stream is critical to the weather observed in the UK - so if we experience significant shifts in its behaviour that can be a challenge.
    Yes, the past few years have seen patterns where our weather gets 'stuck' due to a slack jet stream. Is this climate change? Who knows.

    It certainly leads to more extreme events, such as persistent rain or drought, but without necessarily making each individual day vastly out of the ordinary - other than the line on the thermometer being a bit higher (which it most certainly is).
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,915
    edited October 31

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    The complication is that the shape of the normal distribution can change, as well as its centre point.

    But people were aware of the risk of changes in extremes, though they didn't have any way to quantify that risk.
    From physical first principles I think you'd expect more weather extremes from an increasing greenhouse effect.

    As the greenhouse effect strengthens and heat is less readily rediated into space, it will increasing tend to move horizonally from the warmer to the cooler parts of the Earth. This is apparent from the fact that the poles are warming faster than the tropics. If more heat has to be transferred from place to place, then you'd imagine that the weather needed to do this would become more dynamic. This could manifest as increasing numbers of storms, or increasing storm intensity, or elements of both.

    Edit: It is true though that variation in the incidence and intensity of storms as a result of climate change is a trickier prediction to make, especially at a local level. Unlike, say, sea level rise which is pretty much a certainty.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,941

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    What does Mandy have on them that they're so willing to go to bat for him? Is it really just in-group preference?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,223
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    'few beaches *just a little bit further north*'

    Plenty in the UK north of Ribble or Humber. Though I dread tdo think of the adjustment the Free Kirk Leodhasach would have to make if Stornoway became the new Ibiza, certainly on Sundays.
    We're going to have to develop Scotland. :smile:
    I was thinking of Northumberland for instance - magnificent beaches. Be a shame to develop them ...
    Northumberland is less heavily populated with midges aiui from my last holiday there, so it could ne an option.

    If England cooks, do Scottish midges migrate North or South?

    If they are West Coast and Damp, is it bye-bye Blackpool and Greater Manchester?

    Will @Cookie flee to Sheffield?
    I really don't kjnow - and were your holidays in Northumberland on the sea-breezy coast or inland on the peaty fells?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,988
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    I'm on the Octopus Agile TOU tariff, which is £138.6p / MWh at the time of your post. It's worked well so far (Though no winter done yet ;) ) (A weighted av unit cost of 16.88p/KwH since I've been on it from March) but even the TOU tariff is a mile above the wholesale rates and ~ quadruple from 4 - 7.
    Wow, how do you get 16p? Are you a business or residential?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    edited October 31

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    I'm on the Octopus Agile TOU tariff, which is £138.6p / MWh at the time of your post. It's worked well so far (Though no winter done yet ;) ) (A weighted av unit cost of 16.88p/KwH since I've been on it from March) but even the TOU tariff is a mile above the wholesale rates and ~ quadruple from 4 - 7.
    Wow, how do you get 16p? Are you a business or residential?
    Date from Date to Weighted Avg charge KwH
    18/03/2025 23/03/2025 21.56 31
    23/03/2025 17/04/2025 16.97 166.5
    18/04/2025 17/05/2025 15.76 129.6
    18/05/2025 17/06/2025 14.28 94.6
    18/06/2025 17/07/2025 15.27 85
    18/07/2025 17/08/2025 16.11 136.3
    18/08/2025 17/09/2025 13.5 176.8
    18/09/2025 17/10/2025 17.68 260.1

    Late autumn and winter still to go though where a sunday roast being cooked at 5 o'clock with a gloomy high could push it all up.

    Battery linked to solar can push it a bit through the 4-7 peak charge period if there's a bit of sun about.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,004

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
    I believe Bloomberg alone has poured $8m dollars into Cuomo’s campaign. Mildly encouraging that even now money can’t buy everything.
    Bloomberg has a famous talent for being unable to buy votes with money.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,466

    Bartek Staniszewski @BGStaniszewski

    @CentreWrite_ is now live!

    We will be releasing a new article from a top thinker every day, starting with @andrew_lilico on Britain's intellectual right.

    https://centrewrite.brightblue.org.uk

    https://x.com/BGStaniszewski/status/1984196959511699724

    Oh, good. A right-wing website headlining right-wing writers funderd by wealthy right-wingers. Because there's a shortage of this. :(
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,004

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    He also acted for Netanyahu in New York pro bono. So with his harassment of 12 women an all round good egg
    It's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid.
    That's actually quite an easy choice.
    The difficulty is in deciding which is which.
    The real problem is that both buckets are a mix of acid and shit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,316
    edited October 31

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,449

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    The complication is that the shape of the normal distribution can change, as well as its centre point.

    But people were aware of the risk of changes in extremes, though they didn't have any way to quantify that risk.
    From physical first principles I think you'd expect more weather extremes from an increasing greenhouse effect.

    As the greenhouse effect strengthens and heat is less readily rediated into space, it will increasing tend to move horizonally from the warmer to the cooler parts of the Earth. This is apparent from the fact that the poles are warming faster than the tropics. If more heat has to be transferred from place to place, then you'd imagine that the weather needed to do this would become more dynamic. This could manifest as increasing numbers of storms, or increasing storm intensity, or elements of both.
    The warming of the poles is quite likely to be making our weather (via the jet stream) less dynamic as it reduces the temperature contrast between latitudes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
    I believe Bloomberg alone has poured $8m dollars into Cuomo’s campaign. Mildly encouraging that even now money can’t buy everything.
    Not quite up tthere with buying Israel the Golan Heights which Trump credits to Mrs Adelman (worth $50 billion) But money certainly talks

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=trump+credits+Adelson+with+buying+the+Golan+heights#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:ed971970,vid:nP0HPGvxrUM,st:0.



  • TazTaz Posts: 21,839
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    Tourism to Norway is growing at about 15% pa and searches for terms like "cooler destinations" is up hugely
    Norwegian cruises seem very very popular these days.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 83

    MattW said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    American Airlines joins Delta airlines, in asking the US Congress to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund the government.

    Air traffic controllers, airport security agents, and border immigration agents, are all not getting their paycheques today.

    https://x.com/mcccanm/status/1984145286714032354

    There's going to be quite the flu epidemic in those control towers. Just in time to mess up flights for Thanksgiving...

    At what point do the Republicans in Congress see they are committing mass seppuku?
    The issue is with the Democrats in the Senate, who have voted against the CR 14 times now.

    The Senate needs 60 votes.
    Why would Democrat Senators vote for things when Congress isn’t meeting because the Republicans refuse to let it meet.

    Eh?

    The Republican Senators have turned up every day to vote for the CR, and the Democrats senators (with the notable exception of Sen Fetterman) have voted it down.
    The GOP controls every branch of government.
    Expecting the opposition to rubber stamp whatever they choose doesn't really wash, does it ?
    The GOP has no interest in “negotiating” with the Dems re a further budget. It’s an absolute nonsense that the Dems will get anything out of voting for the CR other than giving Trump a win.
    Okay, so the federal paychecks don’t go out and the SNAP benefits stop, with the Dem Senators clearly being the roadblock.

    Dem Senators are already describing the loss of SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ against Trump.
    I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I'm afraid blaming this one on the Dems ain't gonna pass anyones sniff test.
    It will pass the sniff test for those who want it to pass the sniff test.

    As long as both sides have a story that their followers are happy with, the standoff can continue. We saw something similar here, 2016-19.
    I think we may see an attack on Venezuela as Trump's latest diversion.
    Since Trump doesn’t start wars he’ll have to brand it as something else. A very special military operation perhaps?
    He should get VVP to do it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,324

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
    I believe Bloomberg alone has poured $8m dollars into Cuomo’s campaign. Mildly encouraging that even now money can’t buy everything.
    That'll teach Mamdani to visit the wrong places.....

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DKjnZmtPcGE/?hl=en
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,988
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    I'm on the Octopus Agile TOU tariff, which is £138.6p / MWh at the time of your post. It's worked well so far (Though no winter done yet ;) ) (A weighted av unit cost of 16.88p/KwH since I've been on it from March) but even the TOU tariff is a mile above the wholesale rates and ~ quadruple from 4 - 7.
    Wow, how do you get 16p? Are you a business or residential?
    Date from Date to Weighted Avg charge KwH
    18/03/2025 23/03/2025 21.56 31
    23/03/2025 17/04/2025 16.97 166.5
    18/04/2025 17/05/2025 15.76 129.6
    18/05/2025 17/06/2025 14.28 94.6
    18/06/2025 17/07/2025 15.27 85
    18/07/2025 17/08/2025 16.11 136.3
    18/08/2025 17/09/2025 13.5 176.8
    18/09/2025 17/10/2025 17.68 260.1

    Late autumn and winter still to go though where a sunday roast being cooked at 5 o'clock with a gloomy high could push it all up.

    Battery linked to solar can push it a bit through the 4-7 peak charge period if there's a bit of sun about.
    Do you need battery or solar to get on this tariff?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,545

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    I thought there was already a method for removing a life peerage, and just assumed it was unnecessarily convoluted.

    IIRC they did at least introduce a means for people to 'retire' from the Lords, but they get to keep the title, which I would remove - since we are making appointments to serve in the legislature, you should lose the title when no longer formally serving in it. Otherwise it just further incentivizes those people who already purchase a peerage with no intention of actually doing anything for it (having raised money or donated to a party does not count).

    As a reminder, one of my oft mentioned Lords reform options is that people who have donated money to a party are not allowed to be given a peerage/honour for 8 years/2 parliaments. And that people who have been MPs likewise have to wait that length.

    It's not perfect (I think Mandy would still have gotten one that way), but it is better.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 319
    Roger said:

    I wonder if I'm the only person who feels a little better towards Rachel after the vicious attack on her yesterday and the rather dignified way she treated it? I suspect not. There's a limit to the number of times the Mail can do this before it starts looking like a rather tawdry vendetta and they've gone way past that limit

    Qtwtaiy!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,545

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    According to the latest polls Jewish voters under 44 are voting 67% Mamdani and of all Jews 43% are. There was one poll which seemed to be saying something else and it's been much much publicised not least in The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/26/zohran-mamdani-jewish-voters-new-york
    I believe Bloomberg alone has poured $8m dollars into Cuomo’s campaign. Mildly encouraging that even now money can’t buy everything.
    He must not believe in him much, didn't he spend hundreds of millions on his own presidential campaign once?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,905

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    I I was his recalcitrant grandson in California, I’d be more than a little worried this morning.

    The precident has now been set.
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 142
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    Are there any data on how the Jewish vote for Muslim candidates and vice versa?

    How did Bloomberg do with Muslims ? How did Labour under Miliband do with Muslims ? How does Khan do with Jews?

    Could be interesting

    Of course Israel is a major confounding variable but thats something you can ask about
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,545

    Cookie said:

    D66 - is that the Centrist Dads party?

    Arguably, the VVD are the centrist dads. D66 are the hippie radicals.
    A very important distinction, i find.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    I'm on the Octopus Agile TOU tariff, which is £138.6p / MWh at the time of your post. It's worked well so far (Though no winter done yet ;) ) (A weighted av unit cost of 16.88p/KwH since I've been on it from March) but even the TOU tariff is a mile above the wholesale rates and ~ quadruple from 4 - 7.
    Wow, how do you get 16p? Are you a business or residential?
    Date from Date to Weighted Avg charge KwH
    18/03/2025 23/03/2025 21.56 31
    23/03/2025 17/04/2025 16.97 166.5
    18/04/2025 17/05/2025 15.76 129.6
    18/05/2025 17/06/2025 14.28 94.6
    18/06/2025 17/07/2025 15.27 85
    18/07/2025 17/08/2025 16.11 136.3
    18/08/2025 17/09/2025 13.5 176.8
    18/09/2025 17/10/2025 17.68 260.1

    Late autumn and winter still to go though where a sunday roast being cooked at 5 o'clock with a gloomy high could push it all up.

    Battery linked to solar can push it a bit through the 4-7 peak charge period if there's a bit of sun about.
    Do you need battery or solar to get on this tariff?
    No. But your results may vary.
    As I have said I expect winter to push it up a bit due to less solar for myself.


    https://share.octopus.energy/rainy-peak-310
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    The problem Europe has is that there are few beaches *just a little bit further north*. You can go to the Baltic but you are no better off than the UK. Maybe the French Atlantic coast will benefit. I have adapted by travelling in shoulder season, but obviously you can't if you have kids.

    Europe is now less hospitable than the tropics, temperatures over 40 degrees are now commonplace whereas as far as I can see most of SE Asia seems to be constant around high 20s to mid 30s
    'few beaches *just a little bit further north*'

    Plenty in the UK north of Ribble or Humber. Though I dread tdo think of the adjustment the Free Kirk Leodhasach would have to make if Stornoway became the new Ibiza, certainly on Sundays.
    We're going to have to develop Scotland. :smile:
    I was thinking of Northumberland for instance - magnificent beaches. Be a shame to develop them ...
    Northumberland is less heavily populated with midges aiui from my last holiday there, so it could ne an option.

    If England cooks, do Scottish midges migrate North or South?

    If they are West Coast and Damp, is it bye-bye Blackpool and Greater Manchester?

    Will @Cookie flee to Sheffield?
    I really don't kjnow - and were your holidays in Northumberland on the sea-breezy coast or inland on the peaty fells?
    Both :smile: .

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,711
    Sandpit said:

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    I I was his recalcitrant grandson in California, I’d be more than a little worried this morning.

    The precident has now been set.
    Grandson? Has wee Archie been a naughty boy?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,199

    Sandpit said:

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    I I was his recalcitrant grandson in California, I’d be more than a little worried this morning.

    The precident has now been set.
    Grandson? Has wee Archie been a naughty boy?
    Archie will retain his titles and having a mixed race child in the line of succession has some advantages for the royals keeping Andrew with his titles now does not
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,199
    edited October 31
    bobbob said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, if you’re looking for a polling bust for betting purposes, NYC mayoral may be the one. Otoh it might be the self deluding persuading themselves that a serial harasser of women is just what the city wants and needs. 12/1 on comeback kid Cuomo.

    https://x.com/kathleenwood730/status/1984050325062611193?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Seinfelds are Jewish, Cuomo still leads with Jewish voters in NYC as Jews hate Mamdani there as much as they hated Corbyn and now hate Polanski too here.

    Quinnipiac found 60% of Jews voting for Cuomo but only 33% of New York city voters overall backing Cuomo
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
    Are there any data on how the Jewish vote for Muslim candidates and vice versa?

    How did Bloomberg do with Muslims ? How did Labour under Miliband do with Muslims ? How does Khan do with Jews?

    Could be interesting

    Of course Israel is a major confounding variable but thats something you can ask about
    Khan of course also did worse with Jews, Shaun Bailey won Barnet in 2021 for instance
  • Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    The complication is that the shape of the normal distribution can change, as well as its centre point.

    But people were aware of the risk of changes in extremes, though they didn't have any way to quantify that risk.
    From physical first principles I think you'd expect more weather extremes from an increasing greenhouse effect.

    As the greenhouse effect strengthens and heat is less readily rediated into space, it will increasing tend to move horizonally from the warmer to the cooler parts of the Earth. This is apparent from the fact that the poles are warming faster than the tropics. If more heat has to be transferred from place to place, then you'd imagine that the weather needed to do this would become more dynamic. This could manifest as increasing numbers of storms, or increasing storm intensity, or elements of both.
    The warming of the poles is quite likely to be making our weather (via the jet stream) less dynamic as it reduces the temperature contrast between latitudes.
    I think that is inverting cause and effect. I'd say the reduction in temperature contrast is actually a consequnce of more dynamic weather; that is, you need more dynamic weather in order to reduce the contrast. Look at Venus, for example: runaway greenhouse effect; virtually no difference in temperature between equator and poles; extremely powerful winds.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,684
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Today is the kind of day when our transition to our renewables saves us serious cash - currently only 12.8% gas generation and the spot price is £80/MWh.

    Question about that.

    It feels like the following things are true:

    a) weather that allows us to ignore the cost of gas is rare but becoming more common
    b) more wind and solar are still being added, which is why the events are becoming more common
    c) the effect on prices will be a phase transition/tipping point; not much will seem to happen for ages, then a very sharp reduction.

    Is that right, and if so, how close are we to that tipping point?
    This idea that our energy costs are expensive because they are linked to gas is a fallacy imo. Our renewables are provided on fixed price contracts and the cost of gas doesn't effect them - that's why during Putin's invasion those contracts saved us billions - but when gas prices are low, they cost us.

    So there may come a time when 100% of electricity is domestic renewables, but that won't mean that prices crash. The only way you can achieve that is if the technology advances in some way - offshore wind has stalled at about £70 per MWh in today's prices. If gas sits at £40 per MWh then that isn't great, though there are very strong national security arguments for the economic stability renewable contracts provide. And if solar + batteries deliver us £10 per MWh...
    There is a also fallacy in the claim that gas generally is 'more expensive' and is keeping bills high. One of the reasons that gas provision is so costly is because it is only used intermittently. All of the costs of building, maintaining and running the gas generation (known as Levelised Cost of Electricity) are loaded onto a short period of actual use. So unit prices appear extremely high. Perversely using this system, he more we use gas (or anyother energy source) the cheaper it become as unit cost. Also certain costs involved in renewable energy are specifically excluded from the LCOE calculation. The most obvious being storage costs.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,446
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    I I was his recalcitrant grandson in California, I’d be more than a little worried this morning.

    The precident has now been set.
    Grandson? Has wee Archie been a naughty boy?
    Archie will retain his titles and having a mixed race child in the line of succession has some advantages for the royals keeping Andrew with his titles now does not
    Besides, Andrew has brought proper shame on the Family. Quite how bad that shame is, we will probably never find out, because the Family will make sure of it.

    Harry just didn't want to play the game any more. And annoying as that is, he's the wrong nut to use the same sledgehammer on.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,865

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    Titles were forfeited often enough, back in the day.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    I don't see it unless there is some wider reform; there are bad 'uns, crooks (imo) and jailbirds in the Lords, untouched.

    Lord Taylor is still there (11 months in prison, expenses fiddling). As is Baroness Uddin, and as was Lord Hanningfeld until his death last year. Lady Mone is still there. Lord Archer was a member until 2024 (perjury etc conviction in 2001) .

    Some have resigned after conduct committee findings (eg Lord Ahmad).

    But generally they protect their own afaics.

    Yes it needs clearing out. No, I don't see Lord Mandelson as being a serious enough case to trigger said clearout.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,449

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    The UK had a £26bn tourism deficit in the first half of the year:

    Overseas residents made an estimated 7.2 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £4.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Overseas residents made an estimated 9.3 million visits to Great Britain and spent an estimated £7.9 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 18.7 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £16.5 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

    Residents of Great Britain made an estimated 26.0 million visits outside of the UK and spent an estimated £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourismprovisional/januarytomarchandapriltojune2025

    Which is approximately how much money the government borrowed from foreign sources.

    Just think if we could only create a giant sun and get rid of the excrement from the South Coast beaches we could have our own Cote d'Azur and all Rachel's problems would be over
    That might happen, as tourists notice the traditional Mediterranean resorts are becoming unpleasantly hot, and look for alternatives.
    I'll be investing heavily in a chain of paella shops across Margate, Blackpool and Yarmouth come 2035.
    Back in the late 1980s, Jonathon Porrit of the Greens came on Radio 4 to tell us of the dangers of Global Warming.

    He finished by saying that if nothing was done, “they will be growing palm trees on the beach at Bournemouth”.

    I was very young but I remember thinking that that argument was a terrible way to convince people there was a problem.
    In the UK and much of the world the initial problems are more the increase in extreme weather rather than the temperature rise. Not sure if they knew that was also coming back in the 80s or not.
    They didn't. The assumption seemed to be, IIRC, that temperatures would increase all round, fairly evenly. In retrospect, the addition of energy into weather systems causing more extreme events should have been obvious.
    There were many predictions of more extreme events early on. For example, in the 1979 Charney Report, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charney_Report
    I don't think it is immediately obvious that there will be more extreme events.

    Every thermodynamic process has a heat source and a heat sink. If the sink warms as well as the source, then potentially there's no extra energy available.

    There are various non-linearities (such as the saturation point of air) which make it more complicated than that, but the idea that all the extra energy is available is not true.

    Butd surely extreme events by their definition are statistical extremes, and this brings into play the shifting of normal curves along the x-axis and all that.
    The complication is that the shape of the normal distribution can change, as well as its centre point.

    But people were aware of the risk of changes in extremes, though they didn't have any way to quantify that risk.
    From physical first principles I think you'd expect more weather extremes from an increasing greenhouse effect.

    As the greenhouse effect strengthens and heat is less readily rediated into space, it will increasing tend to move horizonally from the warmer to the cooler parts of the Earth. This is apparent from the fact that the poles are warming faster than the tropics. If more heat has to be transferred from place to place, then you'd imagine that the weather needed to do this would become more dynamic. This could manifest as increasing numbers of storms, or increasing storm intensity, or elements of both.
    The warming of the poles is quite likely to be making our weather (via the jet stream) less dynamic as it reduces the temperature contrast between latitudes.
    I think that is inverting cause and effect. I'd say the reduction in temperature contrast is actually a consequnce of more dynamic weather; that is, you need more dynamic weather in order to reduce the contrast. Look at Venus, for example: runaway greenhouse effect; virtually no difference in temperature between equator and poles; extremely powerful winds.
    Temperature difference where? At the surface or in the upper atmosphere? The two are very different.

    We know very little about the weather on Venus below the clouds (at 45km or so?). The landers found almost no wind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,488
    Sean_F said:

    According to the Telegraph, Labour insisting that Mandy shouldn't lose his title over links to Epstein

    Is this true? If so, a good move for Labour?

    Maybe we should just abolish the peerage*.

    Perhaps inadvertently, KCIII has now set a precedent that you can get your titles taken off you if you’ve been sufficiently naughty.

    If he can take the titles off his brother why shouldn’t some Lord or Baroness who is caught doing something questionable get theirs removed too?

    It is going to be a bit of a minefield. At the very least it may be the government has to set up some kind of independent forfeiture committee to avoid the monarch being dragged into the politics of scandal - every time there is one now, there will be a louder call for titles to be stripped.

    *I would probably make an initial exception for some of the hereditaries, who at least have some history behind them holding a title.
    Titles were forfeited often enough, back in the day.
    AIUI it needs an Act of Parliament to remove a Life Peerage, and suspension or expulsion from the Lords requires a jail sentence of a year, or other criteria (have not looked up), under the House of Lords Reform Acts 2014 and 2015.
Sign In or Register to comment.