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Soon we could see the Greens second in the polls to Reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,324

    The crazy thing about the rise of populism in this country is that things aren't actually that bad. The economy is growing, unemployment is low, real incomes are rising again after being squeezed by a series of global economic shocks, and we face an international migration problem that is small by the standard of many countries and fixable with time and effort. Imagine the state of our politics if we were to face a real crisis! Pardon my lack of political correctness, but perhaps we just need to man up a bit?
    Plus of course, on the slow moving but very real problem the country is facing around the fiscal costs of ageing, the populists and mainstream politicians alike have nothing to say.

    The real problem is total sclerosis in the system of the governing class. Which makes change next to impossible. It’s also their utter incompetence and lack of knowledge about what they are doing -

    - the bat tunnel. No, not the cost. The specification, according to the chap who commissioned it, was “no bats could be allowed to be injured”. That is impossible. You could reduce the *probability* to 1 in a million. But eliminating risk completely requires infinite money.
    - The farce over the Small Reactors. Demanding that a percentage of the employees are asylum seekers? When asylum seekers can’t work, by law.
    - renting the asylum hotels at rates *above* the cost of block booking rooms.
    - Wanting more homes built, then piling up contradictory regulations until they manage to stop flats being built. And then wanting to increase landfill costs….
    There's a lot of competition, but I think the release of the Epping sex assaulter will come to be emblematic of this government. It's a very British fuck-up. Any other country this sort of prison crisis would be a mass breakout from a prison as the criminals from within and without overwhelm the prison guards. But in Britain, the wrongfully released prisoner tries FIVE TIMES to get back into prison and is turned away.

    You can't get a clearer sign that the people in charge are not in charge at all, and have no clue what they are doing.
    There have been three moments in this parliament so far that have left me chilled. The vote on “assisted dying”, the vote on decriminalising late stage abortion, and the ban on Israeli football fans. Everything else is mere incompetence or cultural vandalism.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,729

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 950
    stodge said:

    I think the interesting thing will be the reaction to the Greens polling second. One of the things that held up the duopoly was the argument that only x can stop y, and so, once that breaks, once Labour are not best placed to stop Reform/Tories, they could fall further.

    This is one reason why I think the Lib Dems are missing a historic opportunity. They're so scarred by the experience of the 80s, that they appear to be focusing on a 100-seat strategy, incremental progress on their existing gains, but the opportunity exists to become a national party that competes for a majority.

    I disagree (as you might expect) to an extent.

    We are three and a half years off an election - at the moment, the shouty extremes are making all the noise while those parties advocating less interesting but arguably more sensible and realistic policies (in my view and I'd include the Conservatives in this) are not getting much of a hearing.

    That will change as the election approaches and minds are focused and three years is a political eternity. It's all fun for the political anoraks at this time but of meaningful long-term significance, unlikely though not impossible.
    The LDs had a clear strategy of building up a base and expanding from there, over 2-3 elections. What caught them by surprise was winning all those 2-3 elections' worth of seats off the Conservatives at the first attempt, when privately 30 gains would have been hailed as a triumph (remember, in 1997 they only gained 30 from a stronger base).

    There will be a lot of work going on in working out where local government strength can be used against Labour but they need to think how to get more national coverage beyond stunts. (I don't think they have much of a social media presence and that needs to be fixed).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,672

    Shows how hopeless the rest of the left is that Whacky Zacky is flying so high

    I guess the same could be said about the rest of the right and fashy Nige with his hapless band of fruitcakes, loons and closet racists.

    Edit: or not so closeted.
    Fashy Farage, surely. Come on, the alliteration was right there!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172

    The Edinburgh bypass is absolutely dogshit. That is all.

    You’ll get no argument from me. Slightly mystified as to why it’s so bad apart from the obvious reason of volume of traffic, stationary queues and tailbacks even in the non rush hours.

    Two lanes in each carriageway. But it was built a long time ago.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172

    The Edinburgh bypass is absolutely dogshit. That is all.

    It is known.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561

    bobbob said:

    The crazy thing about the rise of populism in this country is that things aren't actually that bad. The economy is growing, unemployment is low, real incomes are rising again after being squeezed by a series of global economic shocks, and we face an international migration problem that is small by the standard of many countries and fixable with time and effort. Imagine the state of our politics if we were to face a real crisis! Pardon my lack of political correctness, but perhaps we just need to man up a bit?
    Plus of course, on the slow moving but very real problem the country is facing around the fiscal costs of ageing, the populists and mainstream politicians alike have nothing to say.

    Might not be for you but other peoples lived experience is different

    Sky high deductions leading to low take home pay, expensive housing, cost of everything up, wages not keeping up and fewer job opportunities

    People’s quality of life has gone down

    Or in clear terms imagine earning the uk average salary and trying to live in London today vs 20 years ago

    It’s a real problem. And that’s just the private economic stuff without all the other stuff that pisses people off
    When I was growing up in the 80s and 90s on my dad's average kind of salary we could never have afforded to live in London either. So what? We didn't want to live in London. Unemployment was much higher then, as was inflation for much of the time. House prices are higher than in the 80s but haven’t gone up in real terms for twenty years. Marginal tax rates are lower for most people than they were then, too.
    I don't want to play down others' lived experience. But I do wonder whether as a country we have become a little bit spoilt. Sometimes things are tough - that's life. We've just been through the biggest pandemic since 1918 and we have the biggest war in Europe since 1945. We also literally voted to make ourselves poorer in 2016. Maybe we just to suck it up and stop moaning. Voting for chancers offering moon on the stick nonsense isn't going to help. I thought we were better than this.
    The difference is previous generations were getting richer than their parents and grandparents so felt progress. In terms of how it feels it doesn't matter if todays generation objectively has better insulation or choice of food than in the 70s or 80s, they are missing out on progression. Is that spoilt or human nature?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157
    Eabhal said:

    The crazy thing about the rise of populism in this country is that things aren't actually that bad. The economy is growing, unemployment is low, real incomes are rising again after being squeezed by a series of global economic shocks, and we face an international migration problem that is small by the standard of many countries and fixable with time and effort. Imagine the state of our politics if we were to face a real crisis! Pardon my lack of political correctness, but perhaps we just need to man up a bit?
    Plus of course, on the slow moving but very real problem the country is facing around the fiscal costs of ageing, the populists and mainstream politicians alike have nothing to say.

    Agree - frankly it would be a bit pathetic for the country to vote a Green or Reform government in given just how good things are. And I don't think they will - we are a property-owning country and with (on average) low housing costs - I don't think most people will vote to disrupt that.

    The Greens will do well with a minority of people deeply frustrated by a lack of a left-wing agenda. Reform could do well with a majority of people if the Channel remains a big issue in 2029. Otherwise...
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens do very well among the young, with the kind of surge that Corbyn managed to achieve. Indeed the forecast 24 seats based on UNS from that recent poll had the northern inner cities giving most of those gains.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929
    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    I'd stretch it to 1660 really. The War wasn't over until the monarchy returned.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,672
    edited 9:36AM
    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561

    The crazy thing about the rise of populism in this country is that things aren't actually that bad. The economy is growing, unemployment is low, real incomes are rising again after being squeezed by a series of global economic shocks, and we face an international migration problem that is small by the standard of many countries and fixable with time and effort. Imagine the state of our politics if we were to face a real crisis! Pardon my lack of political correctness, but perhaps we just need to man up a bit?
    Plus of course, on the slow moving but very real problem the country is facing around the fiscal costs of ageing, the populists and mainstream politicians alike have nothing to say.

    We talk a lot about immigration. Lets think about emigration for a second. It is exceedingly low, surely a sign that things are not as bad as people claim.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172
    Eabhal said:

    The Edinburgh bypass is absolutely dogshit. That is all.

    It's not a bypass. It's a commuter lane for people heading to the business parks in the west of city from the 10s of thousands of car-dependent low density suburbs built in Mid and East Lothian.
    It is a bypass primarily ... the commuter ratrun came later.

    Don't know if you recall the old days, when every car and lorry had to go either south of the Pentlands or through the choke point of Colinton Bridge, or even through Wester Hailes, if it wanted to avoid the city centre. And then along narrow country roads past chicken farms, ditto.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    maxh said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Greens were a clear second, in 2029, I think Reform would win comfortably,

    More voters would opt for Reform than for a party of the far left.

    According to the polls, most voters are opting for Reform over every other party. That's the point. But Caerphilly taught us there will be a tactical vote against Reform. If the Greens get that (and it's a big if) then they get lots of seats.
    But that doesn't mean Sean is wrong. Greens are an acceptable tactical vote for many if they are not actually going to win (both because you can signal a desire for a movement in a particular political direction without signing up to the specifics of the end point, and also because they will get less scrutiny if people don't think they'll actually win).

    Once there is a realistic prospect of Greens leading a government, many will stay at home rather than vote for them. So tactical voting will weaken considerably.
    You’re starting with an overall Right vote of 31% in Caerphilly, from 2024, and 20%, from 2021. The median constituency has a Right vote of 40%, from 2024.

    The Conservative vote in Caerphilly switched en masse to Reform, while the Labour vote switched en masse to Plaid, and both parties gained previous non-voters. The Right vote rose to 38%.

    In a more Right-leaning constituency, those sorts of vote shifts would favour Reform over its left wing challenger.

    WRT the Greens, I don’t see a platform of leaving NATO, unilateral disarmament, and big tax rises gaining traction in a median constituency.
    Yes Polanski has a platform designed to win inner city and university town seats from Labour.

    Beyond that it is a platform designed to send swing voters in marginal seats in the suburbs and commuter belt, seaside and industrial towns to Farage and rural areas too would overall strongly vote Reform over a Polanski led Greens
    I could see the Greens doing well in parts of Inner London next year as long as they aren't competing with "Your Party" slates.

    In my part of the world, the Greens are likely to run third behind Labour and the Newham Indepdendents - they'll hold the Stratford seat they already have and might pick up some more if there is a tacit electoral arrangement with the Newham Independents whereby the latter work the Muslim dominated Wards and the former the other Wards.

    The tantalising question is whether the Independents and the Greens are capable of taking down the Labour majority on Newham Council - it's a big ask, they basically need to take 30 seats off Labour. I can see the Newham Independents winning 20 and the Greens certainly 4-6 but beyond that, I'm much less certain.
    Meanwhile in other YP news:

    Your Party, the leftwing party steered by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, says it is preparing legal action against a group of its own founders after a final deadline to hand over at least £800,000 in donations passed without payment, the Guardian understands.

    Figures close to the party accused directors of MoU Operations Ltd (MoU) of having “gone rogue”, holding supporters’ funds to ransom and undermining its founding process “despite direct pleas from Jeremy and Zarah”.

    Party insiders say they “reluctantly” agreed to initiate legal proceedings after “exhausting every possible alternative” to recover the money still held by the directors of MoU.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929
    PJH said:

    stodge said:

    I think the interesting thing will be the reaction to the Greens polling second. One of the things that held up the duopoly was the argument that only x can stop y, and so, once that breaks, once Labour are not best placed to stop Reform/Tories, they could fall further.

    This is one reason why I think the Lib Dems are missing a historic opportunity. They're so scarred by the experience of the 80s, that they appear to be focusing on a 100-seat strategy, incremental progress on their existing gains, but the opportunity exists to become a national party that competes for a majority.

    I disagree (as you might expect) to an extent.

    We are three and a half years off an election - at the moment, the shouty extremes are making all the noise while those parties advocating less interesting but arguably more sensible and realistic policies (in my view and I'd include the Conservatives in this) are not getting much of a hearing.

    That will change as the election approaches and minds are focused and three years is a political eternity. It's all fun for the political anoraks at this time but of meaningful long-term significance, unlikely though not impossible.
    The LDs had a clear strategy of building up a base and expanding from there, over 2-3 elections. What caught them by surprise was winning all those 2-3 elections' worth of seats off the Conservatives at the first attempt, when privately 30 gains would have been hailed as a triumph (remember, in 1997 they only gained 30 from a stronger base).

    There will be a lot of work going on in working out where local government strength can be used against Labour but they need to think how to get more national coverage beyond stunts. (I don't think they have much of a social media presence and that needs to be fixed).
    I'd argue that they have lost one of their strengths - they are no longer the party of 'don't want Tory, don't want Labour'. There's Reform and the Greens for that. So they need to get enough bandwidth to proclaim what Lib Dems are for. Too often people will think of the Lib Dems and think that they are rather two faced (nationally - "we must build more housing", locally - "yes, but not HERE"). They are not alone in that, of course. But how does a Lib Dem distinguish itself?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,729

    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    I'd stretch it to 1660 really. The War wasn't over until the monarchy returned.
    There’s always one smart-arse who ruins it when you try to be a smart-arse.

    I did just google the wars of the three kingdoms for a quick answer. Something beyond Elon and I’m rubbish with technology.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,531

    stodge said:

    Hard not to have some trepidation over what the morning will being in Jamaica.

    Probably the worst storm to have ever hit the island (though that's unknowable) and Melissa is now ravaging eastern Cuba though it has diminished somewhat albeit still a dangerous storm.

    Melissa ranks alongside Wilma and Milton in terms of intensity though typhoons in the Pacific can be even stronger.

    I hope the international community stands ready to assist Jamaica if required.

    As we speak, the Foreign Office are discussing setting up a sub-committee to decide what cost free help we can offer.
    USAID and DFID have been closed but if there's anything left in the kitty after we've spaffed the foreign aid money on block-booked home counties hotels, we've got eleventy warehouses full of substandard PPE they can have.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172

    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    I'd stretch it to 1660 really. The War wasn't over until the monarchy returned.
    Wars plural.

    1694, or 1746 depending on preference - I'd go for 1746, they were all the Wars of the Covenant from 1638 onwards.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    maxh said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Greens were a clear second, in 2029, I think Reform would win comfortably,

    More voters would opt for Reform than for a party of the far left.

    According to the polls, most voters are opting for Reform over every other party. That's the point. But Caerphilly taught us there will be a tactical vote against Reform. If the Greens get that (and it's a big if) then they get lots of seats.
    But that doesn't mean Sean is wrong. Greens are an acceptable tactical vote for many if they are not actually going to win (both because you can signal a desire for a movement in a particular political direction without signing up to the specifics of the end point, and also because they will get less scrutiny if people don't think they'll actually win).

    Once there is a realistic prospect of Greens leading a government, many will stay at home rather than vote for them. So tactical voting will weaken considerably.
    You’re starting with an overall Right vote of 31% in Caerphilly, from 2024, and 20%, from 2021. The median constituency has a Right vote of 40%, from 2024.

    The Conservative vote in Caerphilly switched en masse to Reform, while the Labour vote switched en masse to Plaid, and both parties gained previous non-voters. The Right vote rose to 38%.

    In a more Right-leaning constituency, those sorts of vote shifts would favour Reform over its left wing challenger.

    WRT the Greens, I don’t see a platform of leaving NATO, unilateral disarmament, and big tax rises gaining traction in a median constituency.
    Yes Polanski has a platform designed to win inner city and university town seats from Labour.

    Beyond that it is a platform designed to send swing voters in marginal seats in the suburbs and commuter belt, seaside and industrial towns to Farage and rural areas too would overall strongly vote Reform over a Polanski led Greens
    I could see the Greens doing well in parts of Inner London next year as long as they aren't competing with "Your Party" slates.

    In my part of the world, the Greens are likely to run third behind Labour and the Newham Indepdendents - they'll hold the Stratford seat they already have and might pick up some more if there is a tacit electoral arrangement with the Newham Independents whereby the latter work the Muslim dominated Wards and the former the other Wards.

    The tantalising question is whether the Independents and the Greens are capable of taking down the Labour majority on Newham Council - it's a big ask, they basically need to take 30 seats off Labour. I can see the Newham Independents winning 20 and the Greens certainly 4-6 but beyond that, I'm much less certain.
    Meanwhile in other YP news:

    Your Party, the leftwing party steered by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, says it is preparing legal action against a group of its own founders after a final deadline to hand over at least £800,000 in donations passed without payment, the Guardian understands.

    Figures close to the party accused directors of MoU Operations Ltd (MoU) of having “gone rogue”, holding supporters’ funds to ransom and undermining its founding process “despite direct pleas from Jeremy and Zarah”.

    Party insiders say they “reluctantly” agreed to initiate legal proceedings after “exhausting every possible alternative” to recover the money still held by the directors of MoU.
    Have we missed something? Is 'Your Party' actually just a spoof?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    He physically assaulted her and another woman.

    The Judge who heard the evidence deemed it appropriate.

    Why do people mitigate these offences on women by predatory men ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo

    ‘ A judge at Chelmsford Magistrates' Court also found him guilty of harassing the girl, inciting her to engage in sexual activity and an attempted sexual assault, and warned him to expect a prison sentence.

    Kebatu attempted to kiss the girl and placed his hand on her thigh, as well as asking her to kiss another child in front of him, the court heard.

    When a woman intervened he also placed his hand on her thigh, which she said made her feel "shocked, uncomfortable", before she called the police.’
    Like I said, it is an offense and should be dealt with by the police, but to make him out to be a violent sex offender is exagerrating things.

    I suspect a white offender with similar actions would have got off with a caution.
    I think it is likely that this individual received an exemplary sentence because of the wider context. In a similar way that people who called for violence online during the 2024 riots also received exemplary sentences.

    I think it was important for the criminal justice system to demonstrate that it wasn't shy about taking stern action against this offence, by this individual. This sort of sentencing, that isn't solely about the individual criminal, and the individual crime, is not unusual. I think it's right that judges have discretion to act in this way.

    (I also think that Britain could do with being firmer in general with sex-related offences, but that has at least improved in recent decades.)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,360
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Edinburgh bypass is absolutely dogshit. That is all.

    It's not a bypass. It's a commuter lane for people heading to the business parks in the west of city from the 10s of thousands of car-dependent low density suburbs built in Mid and East Lothian.
    It is a bypass primarily ... the commuter ratrun came later.

    Don't know if you recall the old days, when every car and lorry had to go either south of the Pentlands or through the choke point of Colinton Bridge, or even through Wester Hailes, if it wanted to avoid the city centre. And then along narrow country roads past chicken farms, ditto.
    I don't (of course ;) ). But that's ultimately what our proliferation of car-dependent suburbs leads to. Even inside the bypass the vast majority of car traffic stems from the Lothians - people in the city primarily walk or get the bus.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    He physically assaulted her and another woman.

    The Judge who heard the evidence deemed it appropriate.

    Why do people mitigate these offences on women by predatory men ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo

    ‘ A judge at Chelmsford Magistrates' Court also found him guilty of harassing the girl, inciting her to engage in sexual activity and an attempted sexual assault, and warned him to expect a prison sentence.

    Kebatu attempted to kiss the girl and placed his hand on her thigh, as well as asking her to kiss another child in front of him, the court heard.

    When a woman intervened he also placed his hand on her thigh, which she said made her feel "shocked, uncomfortable", before she called the police.’
    Like I said, it is an offense and should be dealt with by the police, but to make him out to be a violent sex offender is exagerrating things.

    I suspect a white offender with similar actions would have got off with a caution.
    Or a royal household in perpetuity perhaps.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,850

    Is Roger holding public, open auditions for Free The Paedos membership?

    Are you still on the drugs - or have you just had too many Weetabix?

    A lot of the discussions about the filthy fuckers (© Blanche) are versions of the old tradition of ethno-nationalism. Varying shades of 'blood and soil'.

    We can take the moral high ground but until it's recognised for a) what it is and b) how widespread it is worldwide and c) how entrenched it is in the human psyche and d) how we attempt to balance it with our perceived moral standards, all we have are shouting matches
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,263
    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 11% (+1)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 24th - 27th October
    Changes with 20th October"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/1983452681915248718
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    He really doesn’t help himself with such comments on other countries.

    Argue about restrictions on free speech with his Twitter CEO hat on, sure, but talk of civil wars is way over the top.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157
    edited 9:50AM

    PJH said:

    stodge said:

    I think the interesting thing will be the reaction to the Greens polling second. One of the things that held up the duopoly was the argument that only x can stop y, and so, once that breaks, once Labour are not best placed to stop Reform/Tories, they could fall further.

    This is one reason why I think the Lib Dems are missing a historic opportunity. They're so scarred by the experience of the 80s, that they appear to be focusing on a 100-seat strategy, incremental progress on their existing gains, but the opportunity exists to become a national party that competes for a majority.

    I disagree (as you might expect) to an extent.

    We are three and a half years off an election - at the moment, the shouty extremes are making all the noise while those parties advocating less interesting but arguably more sensible and realistic policies (in my view and I'd include the Conservatives in this) are not getting much of a hearing.

    That will change as the election approaches and minds are focused and three years is a political eternity. It's all fun for the political anoraks at this time but of meaningful long-term significance, unlikely though not impossible.
    The LDs had a clear strategy of building up a base and expanding from there, over 2-3 elections. What caught them by surprise was winning all those 2-3 elections' worth of seats off the Conservatives at the first attempt, when privately 30 gains would have been hailed as a triumph (remember, in 1997 they only gained 30 from a stronger base).

    There will be a lot of work going on in working out where local government strength can be used against Labour but they need to think how to get more national coverage beyond stunts. (I don't think they have much of a social media presence and that needs to be fixed).
    I'd argue that they have lost one of their strengths - they are no longer the party of 'don't want Tory, don't want Labour'. There's Reform and the Greens for that. So they need to get enough bandwidth to proclaim what Lib Dems are for. Too often people will think of the Lib Dems and think that they are rather two faced (nationally - "we must build more housing", locally - "yes, but not HERE"). They are not alone in that, of course. But how does a Lib Dem distinguish itself?
    The two obvious gaps are as the anti-Brexit party and the anti-Reform party (indeed I believe the LDs are tabling a censure motion in parliament over the Cochin comments). However Labour appears, belatedly, to be considering moving onto similar turf. Not that is necessarily a bad thing, allowing both parties to reinforce each other's pitch whilst focusing on different sets of seats. There's the next election campaign laid out, right there.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929
    Sandpit said:

    Not a Crimean oil depot on fire this morning, but TWO Crimean oil depots on fire this morning.

    https://x.com/nafovoyager/status/1983414775439831372

    The Ukranians keep going after these panacea targets. Harris would be turning in his grave...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,135
    The Green surge is real, but may be temporary. Many lefties disillusioned by Starmerism are torn between the Greens and Your Party, but are waiting to see if the latter transforms from a mirage into something real. If it does, the left vote will split more between the Greens and YP.

    In the longer term, many of those same lefties would do pretty much anything to avoid a Reform government, even to the extent of holding their noses and voting Labour (or LD) if that's what it takes in their own constituency. The proportion of those willing to do that will increase if the government actually enacts a few left-wing policies over the next three years, and if Gaza fades from its current centrality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    I'd be interested in @DavidL 's comments on this.
    I honestly have no real idea in terms of sentencing where this falls on the "scale".

    Anyone who has read the commentary of PBers like Cyclefree over the years will be well aware that Foxy is correct in thinking this kind of behaviour is pretty common. That doesn't of itself mean he's correct in saying it's "low level", of course.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    Cookie said:

    maxh said:

    FPP(and maybe P)T: @Casino_Royale you flummox me, you do.

    In most ways I have you pegged as a thoughtful, patriotic, right of centre astute political analyst.

    But I don't get this. You say you'd pick Trump over Corbyn. Granted, it's a terrible, terrible forced choice (and I can admit that even despite an instinctive desire for a leader who will dismantle the more egregious aspects of our current vulture capitalism; Corbyn is not that man).

    But I would pick a right-of-centre incompetent over someone intent on pulling apart democracy every time. Can you show your working for picking Trump over Corbyn please?

    (Not a dig, I'm genuinely interested. It feels to me like an emotional reaction to Corbyn causing some cognitive dissonance about quite how catastrophic Trump 2's actions are for global democracy and the relative supremacy of the West Vs China.)

    maxh said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

    RefUK 27%(+1),
    CON 17%(nc),
    LAB 17%(-3),
    GRN 16%(+1)
    LDEM 15%(nc),

    According to YouGov, the 17% for Labour is, they believe believe, the lowest we have shown them on and the Green score is their highest.

    Needless to say, it's an unusual result with four parties within 2 points of each other.


    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1983053821849817502

    Labour and the Tories now tied and only just ahead of the Greens and LDs shows that both the main parties are finding it difficult to distinguish themselves. Labour are losing votes to their left to the Greens and to the centre to the LDs and the Tories have already lost the right to Reform and under Kemi are losing centrist voters to the LDs as well.

    Reform ahead clearly but only on 27% so still very vulnerable to anti Farage tactical voting
    It's a fascinating time to be involved in politics! There is a very simple message from the electorate - they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more. The party who can offer the most convincing fix for the mess will win.
    You don't think the winner will be the Party offering the most attractive illusion?
    I think there are two more cycles: Reform and then radical left (Green or Sultana) And then we may consider facing up to our problems. But we are not at rock bottom yet.
    Radical Left would be apocalyptic.

    No-one would come out with any private assets intact out the other side, and it'd take us decades to recover, and many of us never would.
    Interesting question? Would we prefer a Corbyn/Foot type government or Farage/Trump type of Government?

    I appreciate it sounds like a choice of which foot would you like to shoot, but if I had to choose I would go for Corbyn/Foot because although they might be worse at running the economy (maybe?) they aren't obviously destroying the democracy. Further left and of course that is also a possibilty
    I'd go for Farage/Trump every time, and it's not even close.

    So would most of the country.
    Then most of the country are wrong, as are you.
    I don't think so. Plenty of people on here (many reading this now, and even posting) would handwring about it publicly, and then still vote for them in the voting booth.

    Farage is a pub bore and a bit of an ass, but I'd far rather him in power than Corbyn/Foot.

    My concern with him isn't his shtick, it's that I don't think he could manage a team or do the job and his economics are fantasy land.
    I did vote for Corbyn in 2016 (for the regional vote in the Holyrood elections), but I couldn't now vote for anyone who doesn't take the threat from Russia seriously. Not for Corbyn. Not for Polanski. Not for Farage.

    I'm surprised at the number of PB Righties prepared to overlook Farage's support for Putin.
    I think the conflation of Farage and Trump here is unhelpful.

    @Casino_Royale I'd be interested in whether you'd go for Trump over Corbyn. I can understand you choosing Farage (populist right, roughly in line with Trump's first term perhaps). But Trump now?

    Imv we all need to carefully consider which of the options at our next election are best placed to preserve and strengthen democracy in the face of a pretty crap set of political choices that will need to be made in the next generation or two.

    One can have a sensible argument over whether Farage (playing to the gallery, keeping people engaged in politics) or Starmer (stolid respect of the rule of law) are best placed to keep our democracy healthy (neither is a great choice). But Trump is way out on the extremes on this.
    Yes, I'd go for Trump over Corbyn.
    I'm not convinced democracy is any safer under Corbyn than Trump. If he isn't a communist himself he's certainly very comfortabke in the company of communists. And terrorists.
    And Corbyn's friendship with the west's enemies seems rather stronger than Trump's.
    So politically, they are at worst level pegging. Meanwhile despite politicak misgivings, America actually seems to be doing relatively well economically. Which a Corbyn led UK certainly would not.
    So, forced choice, for the above reasons, UK-Trump over Corbyn.
    I reject a choice between chopping off an arm and chopping off a leg.

    It can be hard to escape a forced choice with FPTP, but the only way to get something different is to reject the forced choice. One of the unique features of the 2019 GE was that the obvious alternative - the Lib Dems - also presented an extreme option, of revoking article 50 without a second referendum, and so an escape from the forced choice between Johnson and Corbyn was even harder than it might otherwise have been.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665
    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    Musk is a very interesting engineer and businessman.
    When it comes to politics, he's just another arsehole with a lot of money, and very little sense.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Is it really beyond the wit of man to design a passport system where the expiry date is the date it is valid until?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157
    Here's a bizarre story:

    Boxes reportedly containing snails were uncovered by Westminster City Council officers in West End offices.

    It believes it is an attempt to avoid the payment of business rates (NNDR) through claiming that a commercial property is a snail farm and therefore exempt from business as a “a fish farm / agricultural use” property.

    While in reality organisers of the scam know that the Valuation Office (central government agency) will never grant an agricultural business rate exemption, the council is forced to go through the legal hoops of winding up the shell company which is occupying the office space. As the council must hold the occupier of a property as liable for business rates, the landlord does not have to pay any business rates and therefore can be considered as complicit in this arrangement.

    Westminster City Council has so far wound up four snail companies for non payment of business rates.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,410
    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 11% (+1)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 24th - 27th October
    Changes with 20th October"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/1983452681915248718

    Hmm. Ref up, Greens up, everybody else down... ☹️
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    I'd be interested in @DavidL 's comments on this.
    I honestly have no real idea in terms of sentencing where this falls on the "scale".

    Anyone who has read the commentary of PBers like Cyclefree over the years will be well aware that Foxy is correct in thinking this kind of behaviour is pretty common. That doesn't of itself mean he's correct in saying it's "low level", of course.
    Low level on its own has no meaning.

    Low level on the list of sex crimes against 14 year olds is different to low level on the list of all crimes, or low level on the list of bad behaviour or low level on the list of all behaviour.

    People are using it differently then getting annoyed when others don't agree.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827

    Sandpit said:

    Not a Crimean oil depot on fire this morning, but TWO Crimean oil depots on fire this morning.

    https://x.com/nafovoyager/status/1983414775439831372

    The Ukranians keep going after these panacea targets. Harris would be turning in his grave...
    One side is bombing weapons factories and oil depots, while the other is bombing kindergartens and apartment blocks.

    Even Trump has abandoned his attempt at neutrality.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,360
    edited 9:57AM
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    I'd be interested in DavidL 's comments on this.
    I honestly have no real idea in terms of sentencing where this falls on the "scale".

    Anyone who has read the commentary of PBers like Cyclefree over the years will be well aware that Foxy is correct in thinking this kind of behaviour is pretty common. That doesn't of itself mean he's correct in saying it's "low level", of course.
    If you spend any period of time in a Sheriff court witness room you'll get a feel for how much of this is going on. I found the sobbing from one of victims pretty harrowing tbh, and I'm not someone who is typically badly affected by things like this.

    If every single one of these cases ended up with a custodial sentence we'd need to massively expand the prison service. And that's just those in court; I'm aware of a handful of sexual assaults in my at uni that weren't even reported.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157

    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Is it really beyond the wit of man to design a passport system where the expiry date is the date it is valid until?
    It's this old story of people who apply early for a replacement getting the time left over on their old passport added to their new one, which we do - but most other countries don't recognise. Leading to wrecked travel plans - David's daughter was lucky to have rescured her trip. As you say, I don't know why we bother granting this extra time when it isn't recognised around the world.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    Musk is a very interesting engineer and businessman.
    When it comes to politics, he's just another arsehole with a lot of money, and very little sense.
    It is worse than that, as he sees (and wants to take) the global opportunity for the tech bros to take political power from national governments. He is not just a commentator or donor in politics but a predator.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Passport Office is one public service that has sorted itself out, after a well-publicised screwup a few years back that led to a lot of trips being cancelled. I did mine on a layover a couple of years ago, urgent appointment service for same day.

    Hope your daughter has a good trip.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665


    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.

    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.
    It was ever thus, as today's Guardian feature on the great Don McCullin reminds us.
    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/ng-interactive/2025/oct/29/its-been-a-cesspit-really-my-life-war-photographer-don-mccullin-on-19-of-his-greatest-pictures

    ..McCullin returned to cover the civil war in the mid-1970s. Arriving in Beirut, he decided attaching himself to the Christian Phalange militia would give him the best access. Over the next few days, he photographed the massacres in a district in east Beirut populated largely by Palestinians – which would put McCullin’s name on a death warrant.

    'One morning I was told: “We’re going to Karantina and we’re going to clear out the rats.” They meant Palestinians. I slept in the morgue that night and then in the early morning, they attacked the area.

    I was told to leave the area by the Christians. They said: “If we see you taking any more photographs, we’re going to kill you.” I’d been watching them kill Palestinians in groups, pouring magazines into men’s heads and exploding them. I was leaving when I heard this strange music and I saw this. This is a dead Palestinian girl lying in the rain, and this boy had a mandolin, which he found in one of the houses. He couldn’t play it, but he was giving the impression that he was serenading the death of this girl. I was looking around, thinking: “I’ve got to get this picture.” I took it very quickly...'


    Note also the photograph from Bradford, half a century back.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 426
    I don’t know whether it’s a factor in the polarisation and shift to the extremes of U.K. politics, but it is interesting to note that the 2026 Russian Federation budget includes the following:

    “ The government intends to allocate $1.78 billion for mass media, up 6.6% from last year, with $317 million going to the Institute for Internet Development, which produces youth-oriented propaganda. The Russia in the World programme — designed to promote ‘traditional spiritual and moral values’ among foreign youth — will receive $145.2 million, more than double the 2025 allocation”

    Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ukraines-theory-of-victory?r=1meubq&utm_medium=ios (Subscription needed)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,398

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    Mauretania banned slavery as recently as 1981.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,307

    The Green surge is real, but may be temporary. Many lefties disillusioned by Starmerism are torn between the Greens and Your Party, but are waiting to see if the latter transforms from a mirage into something real. If it does, the left vote will split more between the Greens and YP.

    In the longer term, many of those same lefties would do pretty much anything to avoid a Reform government, even to the extent of holding their noses and voting Labour (or LD) if that's what it takes in their own constituency. The proportion of those willing to do that will increase if the government actually enacts a few left-wing policies over the next three years, and if Gaza fades from its current centrality.

    The thing is, we just don’t quite know whether that “hold your nose and vote Labour” effect will actually happen next time.

    There’s an assumption it will, to some extent, because swing back/ incumbency/ tactical voting / possible improving metrics, etc etc. But that does presuppose a few things. The first is that people genuinely think another 5 years of Labour is a better alternative to a more radical option. Now traditionally that has tended to be the electorate’s assessment when confronted with this choice but there is surely no hard and fast rule that it must be the assessment, particularly when people are feeling more and more that mainstream politics isn’t listening to them. The second is that there won’t be a tactical effect the other way - I.e, a number of people actively voting against Labour to punish them, in the way a number of people appear to have done in 2024 against the Tories. That would offset some of the theoretical advantage Labour might get as the challengers to Reform (this is assuming that come the next GE they are second in the opinion polls).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,398
    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 11% (+1)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 24th - 27th October
    Changes with 20th October"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/1983452681915248718

    Broken, sleazy Labour, Tories and LibDems on the slide!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,686
    edited 10:09AM
    Nigelb said:


    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.

    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.
    It was ever thus, as today's Guardian feature on the great Don McCullin reminds us.
    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/ng-interactive/2025/oct/29/its-been-a-cesspit-really-my-life-war-photographer-don-mccullin-on-19-of-his-greatest-pictures

    ..McCullin returned to cover the civil war in the mid-1970s. Arriving in Beirut, he decided attaching himself to the Christian Phalange militia would give him the best access. Over the next few days, he photographed the massacres in a district in east Beirut populated largely by Palestinians – which would put McCullin’s name on a death warrant.

    'One morning I was told: “We’re going to Karantina and we’re going to clear out the rats.” They meant Palestinians. I slept in the morgue that night and then in the early morning, they attacked the area.

    I was told to leave the area by the Christians. They said: “If we see you taking any more photographs, we’re going to kill you.” I’d been watching them kill Palestinians in groups, pouring magazines into men’s heads and exploding them. I was leaving when I heard this strange music and I saw this. This is a dead Palestinian girl lying in the rain, and this boy had a mandolin, which he found in one of the houses. He couldn’t play it, but he was giving the impression that he was serenading the death of this girl. I was looking around, thinking: “I’ve got to get this picture.” I took it very quickly...'


    Note also the photograph from Bradford, half a century back.

    McCullinn is one of the greats, and amazingly clear-eyed when being interviewed last week about being the kind of photographer he is and what a shitty but also beautiful place the world is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,398
    kinabalu said:

    So translating to US speak we have the Dems leading the GOP by 51 to 44.

    Radical Left Lunatics 51
    Radical Right Lunatics 44
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Edinburgh bypass is absolutely dogshit. That is all.

    It's not a bypass. It's a commuter lane for people heading to the business parks in the west of city from the 10s of thousands of car-dependent low density suburbs built in Mid and East Lothian.
    It is a bypass primarily ... the commuter ratrun came later.

    Don't know if you recall the old days, when every car and lorry had to go either south of the Pentlands or through the choke point of Colinton Bridge, or even through Wester Hailes, if it wanted to avoid the city centre. And then along narrow country roads past chicken farms, ditto.
    I don't (of course ;) ). But that's ultimately what our proliferation of car-dependent suburbs leads to. Even inside the bypass the vast majority of car traffic stems from the Lothians - people in the city primarily walk or get the bus.
    Oh, my town has a very heavy bus usership travelling to points all along the radial route and even beyond, don't knock it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665

    IanB2 said:

    Here's a bizarre story:

    Boxes reportedly containing snails were uncovered by Westminster City Council officers in West End offices.

    It believes it is an attempt to avoid the payment of business rates (NNDR) through claiming that a commercial property is a snail farm and therefore exempt from business as a “a fish farm / agricultural use” property.

    While in reality organisers of the scam know that the Valuation Office (central government agency) will never grant an agricultural business rate exemption, the council is forced to go through the legal hoops of winding up the shell company which is occupying the office space. As the council must hold the occupier of a property as liable for business rates, the landlord does not have to pay any business rates and therefore can be considered as complicit in this arrangement.

    Westminster City Council has so far wound up four snail companies for non payment of business rates.

    Good use of shell company.
    Easy to follow trail, though.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,729

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    There’s an exhibition by the artist, Kerry James Marshall (he’s been described not wildly as America’s greatest living painter) where he has confronted this issue. I love his work anyway but it’s impressive how he has gone about pushing this often conveniently overlooked aspect of slavery.

    “ The works see Marshall tackle the “sensitive” and “polemical” (the Royal Academy’s words) history of black involvement in the transatlantic slave trade. The opening work depicts two African children being abducted from their homes by black figures, ready to be shipped across the ocean. It’s a bright, vibrant, verdant but deeply shocking painting, based on the story of Olaudah Equiano, an 18th-century writer who was abducted from Nigeria as a child before buying his freedom and settling in London.

    “Olaudah had been passed on through a network of people,” says Marshall. “He got exchanged over four or five times. He didn’t see a white man until he got on the boat. That’s the slave trade too. It’s not just the boats. It’s not just the trip across the Atlantic. It’s everyday people who wanted some value from whatever was transpiring during the slave trade, people who participated as freelancers to get what they could. They didn’t care any more about abducting children than anybody else.”

    So why does he think people choose to ignore these sorts of stories?

    “Because they don’t fit the narrative of white people evil, black people good. It doesn’t fit.”


    The reality is more complex?

    “It’s always more complex than that. Always.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2025/sep/22/kerry-james-marshall-royal-academy-black-enslavers-america
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    I'd be interested in @DavidL 's comments on this.
    I honestly have no real idea in terms of sentencing where this falls on the "scale".

    Anyone who has read the commentary of PBers like Cyclefree over the years will be well aware that Foxy is correct in thinking this kind of behaviour is pretty common. That doesn't of itself mean he's correct in saying it's "low level", of course.
    I think that the sentence has to be looked at in the context of him having been on remand for several months by the time that it came before the Judge. It rather ties the judge's hands. If he gave a non custodial sentence the accused would get no credit for time served. What he did was impose a sentence that was largely already served but which should have given the Home Office enough time to organise the deportation. That strikes me as an entirely sensible approach.

    From what I had read of the case I don't think a custodial sentence would have been the outcome in other circumstances.
    Thank you, David.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    In the case of Efunroye Tinubu her family is still rich and powerful, with the basis of their fortune…

    The HR trainings are always nonsense. The business ones can be summed to this

    - obey the law
    - If company procedures are stricter than the law, then obey the stricter rules.
    - If in doubt, call compliance.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,664
    IanB2 said:

    Here's a bizarre story:

    Boxes reportedly containing snails were uncovered by Westminster City Council officers in West End offices.

    It believes it is an attempt to avoid the payment of business rates (NNDR) through claiming that a commercial property is a snail farm and therefore exempt from business as a “a fish farm / agricultural use” property.

    While in reality organisers of the scam know that the Valuation Office (central government agency) will never grant an agricultural business rate exemption, the council is forced to go through the legal hoops of winding up the shell company which is occupying the office space. As the council must hold the occupier of a property as liable for business rates, the landlord does not have to pay any business rates and therefore can be considered as complicit in this arrangement.

    Westminster City Council has so far wound up four snail companies for non payment of business rates.

    https://www.londoncentric.media/p/terry-ball-the-snail-farmer-his-mafia

    The thing is I remember this exact tax avoidance scheme from years ago but can’t find references to the previous stories
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,398

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    [begin inappropriate joke]

    What do Woody from Toy Story and Hadush Kebatu have in common?

    They both get stiff when a child enters the room.

    [end inappropriate joke]
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,665

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    Musk is a very interesting engineer and businessman.
    When it comes to politics, he's just another arsehole with a lot of money, and very little sense.
    It is worse than that, as he sees (and wants to take) the global opportunity for the tech bros to take political power from national governments. He is not just a commentator or donor in politics but a predator.
    Oh, I don't disagree.
    Politically he's a malign wrecking ball, but I don't think there's much in the way of deep thought behind that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,296

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,172
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's a bizarre story:

    Boxes reportedly containing snails were uncovered by Westminster City Council officers in West End offices.

    It believes it is an attempt to avoid the payment of business rates (NNDR) through claiming that a commercial property is a snail farm and therefore exempt from business as a “a fish farm / agricultural use” property.

    While in reality organisers of the scam know that the Valuation Office (central government agency) will never grant an agricultural business rate exemption, the council is forced to go through the legal hoops of winding up the shell company which is occupying the office space. As the council must hold the occupier of a property as liable for business rates, the landlord does not have to pay any business rates and therefore can be considered as complicit in this arrangement.

    Westminster City Council has so far wound up four snail companies for non payment of business rates.

    Good use of shell company.
    Easy to follow trail, though.
    Such business practices do seem a bit slimy to the normal person, too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,032
    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 11% (+1)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 24th - 27th October
    Changes with 20th October"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/1983452681915248718

    Reform are holding their poll position and the rest nowhere

    The Greens are trending upwards, and I think not only labour, but the Lib Dems need to look over their shoulders as they are all fishing in the same left pool

    Politics now has choices on the extreme right and left who are squeezing out centre parties and the consequences are entirely unpredictable

    I really do think Starmer and Badenoch will be fortunate to be in post this time next year
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I trust the judge sentencing him considered all the facts.

    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    I'd be interested in DavidL 's comments on this.
    I honestly have no real idea in terms of sentencing where this falls on the "scale".

    Anyone who has read the commentary of PBers like Cyclefree over the years will be well aware that Foxy is correct in thinking this kind of behaviour is pretty common. That doesn't of itself mean he's correct in saying it's "low level", of course.
    If you spend any period of time in a Sheriff court witness room you'll get a feel for how much of this is going on. I found the sobbing from one of victims pretty harrowing tbh, and I'm not someone who is typically badly affected by things like this.

    If every single one of these cases ended up with a custodial sentence we'd need to massively expand the prison service. And that's just those in court; I'm aware of a handful of sexual assaults in my at uni that weren't even reported.
    Impunity is one of the reasons that crime flourishes. Perhaps if people faced the consequences of their actions then behaviour would change, and the rate of offending would decrease?

    Britain seems to have run the contrary experiment with shoplifting, so it's not entirely implausible.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,360
    edited 10:21AM
    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    But this isn't Rome, this isn't Ethiopia. You come here and the expectation is that you follow our customs and laws.

    I don't have much sympathy for people who break them. I work with plenty of other immigrants who manage to get by (and often come to me for advice on how to do so).
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,795

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    The reason that you're labelled a denier is that the significant bodies wanting to "debate" climate change are not doing so in good faith, they are think tanks, lobbyists etc funded by large fossil fuel interests, Koch, Exxon etc. Their goal is to frustrate any action on CO2 emissions.

    It should be fairly clear to any straight-dealing sentient person that climate change is a significant issue and reducing CO2 emissions is necessary. The situation is well past debating whether it is happening and, realistically, past debating the most effective solutions, it's rapidly approaching JFD something.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Passport Office is one public service that has sorted itself out, after a well-publicised screwup a few years back that led to a lot of trips being cancelled. I did mine on a layover a couple of years ago, urgent appointment service for same day.

    Hope your daughter has a good trip.
    I had a good experience with renewing my passport online from Ireland. It does work. Does anyone have any idea how it was fixed, and how you might apply that to other parts of government?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,809

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    But let's not pretend (although I'm not saying you are) that these 'bad facts' are a preserve of left liberals. There are plenty on the other side of the fence.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,425
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Is it really beyond the wit of man to design a passport system where the expiry date is the date it is valid until?
    It's this old story of people who apply early for a replacement getting the time left over on their old passport added to their new one, which we do - but most other countries don't recognise. Leading to wrecked travel plans - David's daughter was lucky to have rescured her trip. As you say, I don't know why we bother granting this extra time when it isn't recognised around the world.
    Looking at the FCDO advice for the five countries I am planning to visit before the end of May, only Lithuania (the only EU country) has the restriction that the passport can be no more than 10 years old.

    Looking at Egypt, they don't have this restriction either, as DavidL posted, it looks like the passport expiry date was actually just under six months from the end of stay, which is very common and most countries seem to require it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    edited 10:24AM
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    For all the lads preferring Trump to Corbyn, are they also willing to take the throbbing haemorrhoid of Musk on the giant orange arsehole as part of the deal?

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Civil war in Britain is inevitable.

    Just a question of when.


    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1983444964848873569

    1639 to 1653 approximately. If only he had some sort of technological system he could ask questions and get answers.
    Musk is a very interesting engineer and businessman.
    When it comes to politics, he's just another arsehole with a lot of money, and very little sense.
    It is worse than that, as he sees (and wants to take) the global opportunity for the tech bros to take political power from national governments. He is not just a commentator or donor in politics but a predator.
    Oh, I don't disagree.
    Politically he's a malign wrecking ball, but I don't think there's much in the way of deep thought behind that.
    On the civil war comments, it is not that he is stupidly expecting a civil war. He is tactically using the phrase to deepen division amongst us and thereby weakening state power which he thinks he can pick up as his own. It may not be Sun Txu, but there is a level of depth in that thinking, that most readers of his tweets don't see or understand and get manipulated by.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    But let's not pretend (although I'm not saying you are) that these 'bad facts' are a preserve of left liberals. There are plenty on the other side of the fence.
    Nah they use alternative facts. Much more effective.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,032
    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Any sexual contact with a child is abhorrent despite your efforts to downplay this issue

    This is the Home Secretary statement this morning

    Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she "pulled every lever" to deport Kebatu.

    "I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it," she said.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    What do you mean by this? What "field" are you referring to?

    In climate science itself, there is, of course, a lot of debate about what impacts will occur at what level of warming - e.g. how much warming will doom the Greenland Ice Sheet? How will rainfall change (affecting agriculture) with a certain amount of warming? Is the south Asian Monsoon at risk of failure? There is, naturally, lots of uncertainty.

    But the scientists mostly don't want to get involved in the politics. The field that look at possible policy responses is much smaller, and mostly not climate scientists, but economists, social scientists, etc. What climate scientists mostly emphasise is that the easiest way to resolve the uncertainty is to stop burning fossil fuels, but they generally don't feel qualified to advocate between different policies. I think they'd mostly just prefer that they were taken more seriously, and left out of the political argument about what to do in response.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    But let's not pretend (although I'm not saying you are) that these 'bad facts' are a preserve of left liberals. There are plenty on the other side of the fence.
    Nah they use alternative facts. Much more effective.
    alternative facts = lies
    bad facts = things that you admit are true, but wish they weren’t.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827

    I don’t know whether it’s a factor in the polarisation and shift to the extremes of U.K. politics, but it is interesting to note that the 2026 Russian Federation budget includes the following:

    “ The government intends to allocate $1.78 billion for mass media, up 6.6% from last year, with $317 million going to the Institute for Internet Development, which produces youth-oriented propaganda. The Russia in the World programme — designed to promote ‘traditional spiritual and moral values’ among foreign youth — will receive $145.2 million, more than double the 2025 allocation”

    Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ukraines-theory-of-victory?r=1meubq&utm_medium=ios (Subscription needed)

    Meanwhile the Russian Central Bank is now openly warning of the possibility of a 1990s-style economic collapse if the oil price falls.

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1983430600854835347

    If they’re going public with their warnings, how bad must their internal data be looking?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,686

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Any sexual contact with a child is abhorrent despite your efforts to downplay this issue

    This is the Home Secretary statement this morning

    Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she "pulled every lever" to deport Kebatu.

    "I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it," she said.
    Now let’s pull every lever to send a perv back to Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,296
    edited 10:35AM
    On Topic. The New York Mayoral elections are next week and there are notable parallels between Mamdani and Zack. They are both of the left both super articulate and both prepared to say what others are afraid to.

    People have been talking to me about Mamdani for months. The new Great (off) White Hope. If he makes as big a splash in the US as many hope this could spell even better things for Zack. He's everything that Sultana and Corbyn aren't so if he's looking for advice when they come knocking have nothing to do with them
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Is it really beyond the wit of man to design a passport system where the expiry date is the date it is valid until?
    It's this old story of people who apply early for a replacement getting the time left over on their old passport added to their new one, which we do - but most other countries don't recognise. Leading to wrecked travel plans - David's daughter was lucky to have rescured her trip. As you say, I don't know why we bother granting this extra time when it isn't recognised around the world.
    Looking at the FCDO advice for the five countries I am planning to visit before the end of May, only Lithuania (the only EU country) has the restriction that the passport can be no more than 10 years old.

    Looking at Egypt, they don't have this restriction either, as DavidL posted, it looks like the passport expiry date was actually just under six months from the end of stay, which is very common and most countries seem to require it.
    OK, interesting. Nevertheless since EU destinations will account for the large majority of Brits' travel, it remains a risk that travellers often don't realise
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Piece of free advice

    Do a safeguarding course for minors - an example of a course that isn’t bullshit.

    Sat in on one at my rowing club - because, while I don’t directly deal with the school kids at the club, thought it was a good idea to be aware.

    Given your job, I would seriously recommend it.
    I’m sure Roman Polanski, Harvey Weinstein, and Jeffery Epstein, also did safeguarding courses at some point in their lives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Any sexual contact with a child is abhorrent despite your efforts to downplay this issue

    This is the Home Secretary statement this morning

    Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she "pulled every lever" to deport Kebatu.

    "I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it," she said.
    Now let’s pull every lever to send a perv back to Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.
    Let us pull every lever to get a trial, based on the existing criminal law, before a judge and jury.

    Just like this chap.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,672
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    maxh said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Greens were a clear second, in 2029, I think Reform would win comfortably,

    More voters would opt for Reform than for a party of the far left.

    According to the polls, most voters are opting for Reform over every other party. That's the point. But Caerphilly taught us there will be a tactical vote against Reform. If the Greens get that (and it's a big if) then they get lots of seats.
    But that doesn't mean Sean is wrong. Greens are an acceptable tactical vote for many if they are not actually going to win (both because you can signal a desire for a movement in a particular political direction without signing up to the specifics of the end point, and also because they will get less scrutiny if people don't think they'll actually win).

    Once there is a realistic prospect of Greens leading a government, many will stay at home rather than vote for them. So tactical voting will weaken considerably.
    You’re starting with an overall Right vote of 31% in Caerphilly, from 2024, and 20%, from 2021. The median constituency has a Right vote of 40%, from 2024.

    The Conservative vote in Caerphilly switched en masse to Reform, while the Labour vote switched en masse to Plaid, and both parties gained previous non-voters. The Right vote rose to 38%.

    In a more Right-leaning constituency, those sorts of vote shifts would favour Reform over its left wing challenger.

    WRT the Greens, I don’t see a platform of leaving NATO, unilateral disarmament, and big tax rises gaining traction in a median constituency.
    Yes Polanski has a platform designed to win inner city and university town seats from Labour.

    Beyond that it is a platform designed to send swing voters in marginal seats in the suburbs and commuter belt, seaside and industrial towns to Farage and rural areas too would overall strongly vote Reform over a Polanski led Greens
    I could see the Greens doing well in parts of Inner London next year as long as they aren't competing with "Your Party" slates.

    In my part of the world, the Greens are likely to run third behind Labour and the Newham Indepdendents - they'll hold the Stratford seat they already have and might pick up some more if there is a tacit electoral arrangement with the Newham Independents whereby the latter work the Muslim dominated Wards and the former the other Wards.

    The tantalising question is whether the Independents and the Greens are capable of taking down the Labour majority on Newham Council - it's a big ask, they basically need to take 30 seats off Labour. I can see the Newham Independents winning 20 and the Greens certainly 4-6 but beyond that, I'm much less certain.
    OK, how many London councils do we think Labour will lose next year? I think it could be lots, probably mostly to NOC. I'm probably going to be standing in my council area as a LibDem candidate (in a ward we don't have much chance of winning!). I'm in Camden. I think the Greens will pick up a few seats, I think the LibDems will pick up quite a few seats, I can't see the Tories or Reform doing well. Maybe Your Party wins something? The council is currently Labour (45), Liberal Democrats (6), Conservative (3) and Green (1), so Labour have to lose 17, which seems a lot, but look at their polling! I think Camden goes NOC.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    edited 10:36AM

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    But let's not pretend (although I'm not saying you are) that these 'bad facts' are a preserve of left liberals. There are plenty on the other side of the fence.
    Nah they use alternative facts. Much more effective.
    alternative facts = lies
    bad facts = things that you admit are true, but wish they weren’t.
    Indeed. Trump et al don't bother with bad facts, they just make up new ones. And it is much more effective in online debate.

    Inflation high? Sack the statistician and find one who will say it is low.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,924
    Sandpit said:

    I don’t know whether it’s a factor in the polarisation and shift to the extremes of U.K. politics, but it is interesting to note that the 2026 Russian Federation budget includes the following:

    “ The government intends to allocate $1.78 billion for mass media, up 6.6% from last year, with $317 million going to the Institute for Internet Development, which produces youth-oriented propaganda. The Russia in the World programme — designed to promote ‘traditional spiritual and moral values’ among foreign youth — will receive $145.2 million, more than double the 2025 allocation”

    Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ukraines-theory-of-victory?r=1meubq&utm_medium=ios (Subscription needed)

    Meanwhile the Russian Central Bank is now openly warning of the possibility of a 1990s-style economic collapse if the oil price falls.

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1983430600854835347

    If they’re going public with their warnings, how bad must their internal data be looking?
    And will any of the board still be alive at Christmas?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,396

    I don’t know whether it’s a factor in the polarisation and shift to the extremes of U.K. politics, but it is interesting to note that the 2026 Russian Federation budget includes the following:

    “ The government intends to allocate $1.78 billion for mass media, up 6.6% from last year, with $317 million going to the Institute for Internet Development, which produces youth-oriented propaganda. The Russia in the World programme — designed to promote ‘traditional spiritual and moral values’ among foreign youth — will receive $145.2 million, more than double the 2025 allocation”

    Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ukraines-theory-of-victory?r=1meubq&utm_medium=ios (Subscription needed)

    The surprise is how small those sums are. It's another variant on the "However much you think that Russia is smaller and weaker than the Soviet Union was, you're probably underestimating the extent of its fall" view of the world.

    No wonder Vlad is an unhappy bunny.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    There’s an exhibition by the artist, Kerry James Marshall (he’s been described not wildly as America’s greatest living painter) where he has confronted this issue. I love his work anyway but it’s impressive how he has gone about pushing this often conveniently overlooked aspect of slavery.

    “ The works see Marshall tackle the “sensitive” and “polemical” (the Royal Academy’s words) history of black involvement in the transatlantic slave trade. The opening work depicts two African children being abducted from their homes by black figures, ready to be shipped across the ocean. It’s a bright, vibrant, verdant but deeply shocking painting, based on the story of Olaudah Equiano, an 18th-century writer who was abducted from Nigeria as a child before buying his freedom and settling in London.

    “Olaudah had been passed on through a network of people,” says Marshall. “He got exchanged over four or five times. He didn’t see a white man until he got on the boat. That’s the slave trade too. It’s not just the boats. It’s not just the trip across the Atlantic. It’s everyday people who wanted some value from whatever was transpiring during the slave trade, people who participated as freelancers to get what they could. They didn’t care any more about abducting children than anybody else.”

    So why does he think people choose to ignore these sorts of stories?

    “Because they don’t fit the narrative of white people evil, black people good. It doesn’t fit.”


    The reality is more complex?

    “It’s always more complex than that. Always.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2025/sep/22/kerry-james-marshall-royal-academy-black-enslavers-america
    Reality is always more complex, and yet. The simple story is also mostly true. Often when people bring up the black people in Africa who profited from the slave trade they seem to do so to excuse the actions of the transatlantic trade. As though the slaves were piled up on the beach and the slave traders were almost forced to take them away. But if there had not been the demand for slaves from white slavers than the Africans wouldn't have been abducting their compatriots to sell to the Europeans.

    I like complex stories. I'd like to learn more about the Africans who profited from the slave trade, and those who resisted them. But that doesn't excuse European culpability for the evil of the Atlantic Slave Trade.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,398

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Any sexual contact with a child is abhorrent despite your efforts to downplay this issue

    This is the Home Secretary statement this morning

    Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she "pulled every lever" to deport Kebatu.

    "I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it," she said.
    Now let’s pull every lever to send a perv back to Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.
    Woking, surely.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,926
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Piece of free advice

    Do a safeguarding course for minors - an example of a course that isn’t bullshit.

    Sat in on one at my rowing club - because, while I don’t directly deal with the school kids at the club, thought it was a good idea to be aware.

    Given your job, I would seriously recommend it.
    I’m sure Roman Polanski, Harvey Weinstein, and Jeffery Epstein, also did safeguarding courses at some point in their lives.
    Little known fact - the really senior managers/Top People avoid all these courses.

    While mandating them for everyone in their organisation.

    I could easily see Weinstein demanding 100% attendance for his employees to such training.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,809
    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    That he was a sex pest rather than a dangerous paedophile (hence the sentence) was a Bad Fact which interfered with the desire of the right to whip up hysteria for political ends. Fortunately for them the media got on board and they were able to proceed largely unencumbered.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,664
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Piece of free advice

    Do a safeguarding course for minors - an example of a course that isn’t bullshit.

    Sat in on one at my rowing club - because, while I don’t directly deal with the school kids at the club, thought it was a good idea to be aware.

    Given your job, I would seriously recommend it.
    I’m sure Roman Polanski, Harvey Weinstein, and Jeffery Epstein, also did safeguarding courses at some point in their lives.
    Safeguarding courses would be well beneath them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,032
    Roger said:

    On Topic. The New York Mayoral elections are next week and there are notable parallels between Mamdani and Zack. They are both of the left both super articulate and both prepared to say what others are afraid to.

    People have been talking to me about Mamdani for months. The new Great (off) White Hope. If he makes as big a splash in the US as many hope this could spell even better things for Zack. He's everything that Sultana and Corbyn aren't so if he's looking for advice when they come knocking have nothing to do with them

    It's ironic you call out Farage and yet you support an equally extreme politician from the left

    They are both toxic for the stability and prosperity of our nation
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    This is how I feel about a lot of the stuff that HR makes us do. Recently we've all had to complete our 'Never Ok' training (or refresher). Fine - sum it up to "Don't be a dick" (with thanks to the Last Leg). But the issue is for much of the discourse around the modern world their seems to be one interpretation with is 'correct' and to deviate sees you as an outcast.

    For example climate. Most people understand that man's behaviour is leading to changes in climate. But there is a wide ranging debate in the field about the future. How much warming? How best to mitigate? Is some warming actually an issue? But if you try to debate this, all too often you are labelled a denier.

    Your example is pertinent too. The African slaves didn't migrate to the coast waiting to be picked up by passing ships. They were enslaved by other Africans and sold. But that is not something that is permitted when talking about the slave trade.
    The reason that you're labelled a denier is that the significant bodies wanting to "debate" climate change are not doing so in good faith, they are think tanks, lobbyists etc funded by large fossil fuel interests, Koch, Exxon etc. Their goal is to frustrate any action on CO2 emissions.

    It should be fairly clear to any straight-dealing sentient person that climate change is a significant issue and reducing CO2 emissions is necessary. The situation is well past debating whether it is happening and, realistically, past debating the most effective solutions, it's rapidly approaching JFD something.
    Purge
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,561
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Can I just tell, after probably too many gripes about the public sector, a different story? My daughter was due to fly to Egypt for a holiday yesterday. When she got to the gates she was told that her passport would reach its final 6 months 3 days before she was due to return. She was told that Egypt would probably detain her in those circumstances. The woman from Easyjet seemed to know what she was talking about. She also advised that my daughter go to Glasgow and just drop in to the passport centre and get her passport renewed.

    My daughter did this and was understandably distraught. She was now having to pay for an additional flight and £220 for the emergency renewal of her passport. The staff at the Passport Centre really could not have been nicer to her. They did everything they could to turn it around as fast as possible and before 3pm she had a new passport. My daughter is flying out this morning. Kind, polite, considerate, efficient. Not words that are always used for public services.

    Is it really beyond the wit of man to design a passport system where the expiry date is the date it is valid until?
    It's this old story of people who apply early for a replacement getting the time left over on their old passport added to their new one, which we do - but most other countries don't recognise. Leading to wrecked travel plans - David's daughter was lucky to have rescured her trip. As you say, I don't know why we bother granting this extra time when it isn't recognised around the world.
    Looking at the FCDO advice for the five countries I am planning to visit before the end of May, only Lithuania (the only EU country) has the restriction that the passport can be no more than 10 years old.

    Looking at Egypt, they don't have this restriction either, as DavidL posted, it looks like the passport expiry date was actually just under six months from the end of stay, which is very common and most countries seem to require it.
    OK, interesting. Nevertheless since EU destinations will account for the large majority of Brits' travel, it remains a risk that travellers often don't realise
    It will be less and less and end soon though, right - because we stopped renewing passports this way almost eight years ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    Roger said:

    On Topic. The New York Mayoral elections are next week and there are notable parallels between Mamdani and Zack. They are both of the left both super articulate and both prepared to say what others are afraid to.

    People have been talking to me about Mamdani for months. The new Great (off) White Hope. If he makes as big a splash in the US as many hope this could spell even better things for Zack. He's everything that Sultana and Corbyn aren't so if he's looking for advice when they come knocking have nothing to do with them

    Is Zack also a raging anti-Semite who makes up stories about his own family?

    The next mayor of New York:

    "We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it's been laced by the IDF."

    https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1982974662175752646

    The day after he admited that the story he told last week about his aunt being afraid to travel on the subway in her hijab after 9/11 was untrue.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,672
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Have you ever been to Rome with an attractive girl? Possibly not but you wouldn't make it to the Colisium from the Trevi Fountain without hearing 'bella figa' a dozen times. Different cultures are different. I don't know what happened in Epping I wasn't there but if you say to someone 'Come to Africa with me so we can make babies' I don't think they would be meaning it literally.

    Here are the two most reliable reports. It just struck me that it sounded like a joke that didn't translate. And as for 'touching' a knee does not sound like a full sexual assault. Well probably not in Etheopea anyway. It could be he's a sex pest but maybe not, But 'A Dangerous Paedophile' as described by Chris Philip?

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/east-england/news/man-who-sexually-assaulted-teenage-girl-epping-convicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cde3w04jwjzo
    Piece of free advice

    Do a safeguarding course for minors - an example of a course that isn’t bullshit.

    Sat in on one at my rowing club - because, while I don’t directly deal with the school kids at the club, thought it was a good idea to be aware.

    Given your job, I would seriously recommend it.
    I’m sure Roman Polanski, Harvey Weinstein, and Jeffery Epstein, also did safeguarding courses at some point in their lives.
    I bet they didn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,809

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    @Foxy FPT

    He tried to kiss her, said he wanted to make babies with her and invited her back to his flat.

    I don’t know what world you live in but that’s a long way past the line as far as I am concerned.

    She’s a 14 year old child for goodness sake.

    Yes, I agree, as I made clear in my post.

    It should be dealt with by the police, but is a 12/12 custodial sentence appropriate for such a low level non-violent offence? And one that most teenage girls will have experienced since time immemorial?

    If so, then no wonder our prisons are bursting at the seams.

    Maybe it had to be custodial because of his housing situation, but locking up every lecherous man is just impossible.
    I'd be happy if we could lock up one lecherous man who committed worse acts, and is now President of the United States.
    What we are seeing is culture war applied to everything.

    I find the arguments strange. But then I try not pick a side.

    @Foxy and @Roger are struggling with some BadFacts*. Facts which are Bad because they give ammunition to those they oppose.

    As pointed out, the sentencing guidelines are clear and quite simple. Indeed, the sentencing guidelines are an example of a process that has much to commend it. They are available online, written in normal English and with quite moderate effort, an ordinary person can see the chain of reasoning that leads to a particular sentence.

    *I was introduced to the idea of “Bad Facts” at a corporate seminar on equality. They are facts that are true, but shouldn’t be. Because of their effect on debate.
    So someone actually stood up and said this in front of other people? Were they a comedian?
    No - quite serious.

    An example (in the course) - local African involvement in the slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efunroye_Tinubu etc.

    I started parroting back the slogans etc in the “exercises” during the course. A Russian colleague, who’d lived under the USSR, commented on the similarity to the political sessions in the military. And that I’d have make a good Zampolit’s Pet. Apparently there was always one guy who would give the “Right” answer…
    But let's not pretend (although I'm not saying you are) that these 'bad facts' are a preserve of left liberals. There are plenty on the other side of the fence.
    Nah they use alternative facts. Much more effective.
    alternative facts = lies
    bad facts = things that you admit are true, but wish they weren’t.
    Indeed. Trump et al don't bother with bad facts, they just make up new ones. And it is much more effective in online debate.

    Inflation high? Sack the statistician and find one who will say it is low.
    Yep, we've gone beyond 'bad facts' with those guys. Bad facts implies at least an attempt to avoid telling flat out lies.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 11% (+1)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 24th - 27th October
    Changes with 20th October"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/1983452681915248718

    Reform are holding their poll position and the rest nowhere

    The Greens are trending upwards, and I think not only labour, but the Lib Dems need to look over their shoulders as they are all fishing in the same left pool

    Politics now has choices on the extreme right and left who are squeezing out centre parties and the consequences are entirely unpredictable

    I really do think Starmer and Badenoch will be fortunate to be in post this time next year
    Looking at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia, it is remarkable how static the polling for Reform/Tories/Lib Dems has been since about June - I guess when the fallout from the local elections had settled down. The move in the polls since then has been of about 4 points in support from Labour to the Greens.
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