politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish pol
One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus.
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We may have to open a market on which party will come 2nd in Scottish seats.0
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Edward who?0
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With "transitional payments" I presume?SeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian0 -
That's a good ideaTissue_Price said:We may have to open a market on which party will come 2nd in Scottish seats.
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All out Elections in 2016 for Rotherham.
Hopefully, will will have PR for the locals by then, to smash all such rotten boroughs...0 -
Can they retain the Council? No, I think that's impossible.SeanT said:
Rotherham must now be an open goal for UKIP in 2015. The entire Labour council cabinet has resigned, as not fit for purpose, with new evidence that some councillors were personally abusing underage girls.Blue_rog said:
Ah well they managed to get a few extra months on the public teatSeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
Can Labour really retain the seat after THAT?
The Parliamentary seats are another matter.
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Unfortunately YES is the answer. Donkeys and red rosettes.SeanT said:
Rotherham must now be an open goal for UKIP in 2015. The entire Labour council cabinet has resigned, as not fit for purpose, with new evidence that some councillors were personally abusing underage girls.Blue_rog said:
Ah well they managed to get a few extra months on the public teatSeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
Can Labour really retain the seat after THAT?0 -
The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
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Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
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Twitter
Helen Pidd @helenpidd · 16 secs 17 seconds ago
Pickles is appointing a panel of commissioners to sort out Rotherham - taking away power from the council on issues including taxi licencing
Helen Pidd @helenpidd · 3 mins 3 minutes ago
Eric Pickles says he will force all-out elections in Rotherham in 2015 - ie the whole council will have to stand for re-election.
Helen Pidd @helenpidd 2 mins2 minutes ago
Rotherham council's cabinet have just resigned en masse. Statement:0 -
Seriously considering helping the UKIP effort in Rother Valley.
On my doorstep (I'm not in the constituency though)0 -
I hope so. But I think you may be being optimistic.SeanT said:
I don't think they will be able to dodge the bullet now. I don't think we will see quiet resignations, nice pension pots, and new jobs down the road in Ed Miliband's Doncaster.FrancisUrquhart said:
With "transitional payments" I presume?SeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
I suspect we will now see prosecutions, criminal and civil, of these councillors and police, past and present. But I could be over-optimistic.
Evidence: Margaret Hodge. She was a councillor - the leader in fact - when similar things happened. She libelled an abuse victim and had to apologise. And look at her now.
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SNP Gain Rotherham !0
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SeanT said:
Rotherham must now be an open goal for UKIP in 2015. The entire Labour council cabinet has resigned, as not fit for purpose, with new evidence that some councillors were personally abusing underage girls.Blue_rog said:
Ah well they managed to get a few extra months on the public teatSeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
Can Labour really retain the seat after THAT?
Hills are 9/2 I am about to go have a bet anyone want any be v quick 2 minsSeanT said:
Rotherham must now be an open goal for UKIP in 2015. The entire Labour council cabinet has resigned, as not fit for purpose, with new evidence that some councillors were personally abusing underage girls.Blue_rog said:
Ah well they managed to get a few extra months on the public teatSeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
Can Labour really retain the seat after THAT?0 -
Anybody care to offer a midpoint on UKIP 2nd places at the GE?MikeSmithson said:
That's a good ideaTissue_Price said:We may have to open a market on which party will come 2nd in Scottish seats.
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Remarkable that the BBC's one o'clock news report on Rotherham didn't mention Labour.0
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They still need another 270 gains for a majority. Ed should be intensely relaxed.Pulpstar said:SNP Gain Rotherham !
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Dirty Protest in Dirty Desmond’s Lift: http://t.co/TzIebuXjA9 pic.twitter.com/bevA1CeSGh
— Media Guido (@MediaGuido) February 4, 20150 -
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
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Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf0 -
Neither did the coalition take action until it was rubbed into their P.C. faces.TheWatcher said:
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
----------------
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
-----------------
Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
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Rotherham, what appears to be happening to Labour in Scotland, what is happening to the Tories in areas where UKIP is making gains: all of these are rotten boroughs where political parties have taken voters for granted, where voters have allowed themselves to be taken for granted.
I am not Scottish but I would be delighted if the SNP were to send a rocket up SLAB's a*se. What with the referendum and this who knew Scottish politics could be so exciting!
And congratulations to Antifrank.0 -
Well they wouldn't, would they.initforthemoney said:Remarkable that the BBC's one o'clock news report on Rotherham didn't mention Labour.
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Plenty on here attacked UKIP for mentioning it at the SYPCC and praised the people of Yorkshire for voting Labour back in.MikeK said:
Neither did the coalition take action until it was rubbed into their P.C. faces.TheWatcher said:
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
----------------
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
-----------------
Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
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I think Rotherham would be a fairly tough ask for UKIP. Labour actually increased their share in the by-election and got nearly 50%. Turnout will be higher in May which I imagine will benefit them more than UKIP. And the MP is not associated with the multiple failures that have been repeatedly reported on. Against that there are the 16% that the BNP and Respect got which presumably will be more likely to go to another anti establishment party rather than Labour. UKIP have a fair few better shots than this one.0
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shadsy has put the constituency markets back up.
Last night, the SNP price in Glasgow South was 8/11, this afternoon 2/5
Last night, the SNP price in Ayrshire Central was 11/8, this afternoon 4/7
And so on.
But bravo to him for getting the markets back up so quickly.0 -
Plenty on here attacked UKIP for mentioning it at the SYPCC and praised the people of Yorkshire for voting Labour back in.
And a few of us wanted to cast South Yorkshire into eternal shame. Shame, shame and shame again.0 -
The same UKIP who can't be bothered to vote on legislation on child abuse at the EU.isam said:
Plenty on here attacked UKIP for mentioning it at the SYPCC and praised the people of Yorkshire for voting Labour back in.MikeK said:
Neither did the coalition take action until it was rubbed into their P.C. faces.TheWatcher said:
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
----------------
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
-----------------
Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
One could be forgiven for thinking that they're playing this card for blatant political reasons.0 -
Too bloody true, isim. I could name over dozen a PB posters who attacked UKIP on this site, for drawing attention to Rotherham, but I won't shame them today.isam said:
Plenty on here attacked UKIP for mentioning it at the SYPCC and praised the people of Yorkshire for voting Labour back in.MikeK said:
Neither did the coalition take action until it was rubbed into their P.C. faces.TheWatcher said:
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
----------------
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
-----------------
Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
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where voters have allowed themselves to be taken for granted.
Most tory seats are in affluent areas where people depend on themselves and have lower expectations of what government can do.0 -
And the current Conservative government is looking into the problem in Oxford, Ipswich, Tower Hamlets, Derby, Telford etc are they?TheWatcher said:
Well, a Labour government didn't bother looking into the problem.MikeK said:The real, real worry is that a Labour Council allowed this to happen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
----------------
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
-----------------
Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf0 -
A bet on Labour retaining Rotherham might offer reasonable odds if it's been Red since 1933.
Unlike this constituency, where a pig with a Blue rosette would win and the bookies know it.0 -
Neil, are you sure Labour increased their vote share IN ROTHERHAM ?Neil said:I think Rotherham would be a fairly tough ask for UKIP. Labour actually increased their share in the by-election and got nearly 50%. Turnout will be higher in May which I imagine will benefit them more than UKIP. And the MP is not associated with the multiple failures that have been repeatedly reported on. Against that there are the 16% that the BNP and Respect got which presumably will be more likely to go to another anti establishment party rather than Labour. UKIP have a fair few better shots than this one.
Sheffield is vastly safer and more pro Labour than Rotherham,0 -
I hope so. I really do.SeanT said:
Even if the CPS are too feeble to prosecute the council and police, we now know that there are 1440 girls who were raped over 20 years, partly because of the council's "culture of denial, sexism, bullying, political correctness" etc etc.Cyclefree said:
I hope so. But I think you may be being optimistic.SeanT said:
I don't think they will be able to dodge the bullet now. I don't think we will see quiet resignations, nice pension pots, and new jobs down the road in Ed Miliband's Doncaster.FrancisUrquhart said:
With "transitional payments" I presume?SeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
I suspect we will now see prosecutions, criminal and civil, of these councillors and police, past and present. But I could be over-optimistic.
Evidence: Margaret Hodge. She was a councillor - the leader in fact - when similar things happened. She libelled an abuse victim and had to apologise. And look at her now.
These girls are in a position to sue and win millions - and good luck to them. There will surely be court cases.
Can't councillors be surcharged or otherwise disciplined in some way?
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Yes. I'm talking about the by-election result.Pulpstar said:
Neil, are you sure Labour increased their vote share IN ROTHERHAM ?Neil said:I think Rotherham would be a fairly tough ask for UKIP. Labour actually increased their share in the by-election and got nearly 50%. Turnout will be higher in May which I imagine will benefit them more than UKIP. And the MP is not associated with the multiple failures that have been repeatedly reported on. Against that there are the 16% that the BNP and Respect got which presumably will be more likely to go to another anti establishment party rather than Labour. UKIP have a fair few better shots than this one.
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The current MP has been reasonably vocal on child protection issues. As pointed out she was only elected at the by-election which replaced McShane, too.Neil said:I think Rotherham would be a fairly tough ask for UKIP. Labour actually increased their share in the by-election and got nearly 50%. Turnout will be higher in May which I imagine will benefit them more than UKIP. And the MP is not associated with the multiple failures that have been repeatedly reported on. Against that there are the 16% that the BNP and Respect got which presumably will be more likely to go to another anti establishment party rather than Labour. UKIP have a fair few better shots than this one.
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Even so, they depend on government for some things. If you vote for a party regardless year in year out don't be surprised if that party largely ignores you. Voters need to keep parties on their toes.taffys said:where voters have allowed themselves to be taken for granted.
Most tory seats are in affluent areas where people depend on themselves and have lower expectations of what government can do.
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Amazing the lack of a certain word beginning with L in this reporting...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Now if it had been the Tories, I wonder? How many times are we reminded for instance Leon Brittan....TORY...close to THATCHER...while still nothing has been proved.
Also amazing bit of cherry picking...
But the investigators said that by failing to take action against the abusers of Pakistani heritage, the council had "inadvertently fuelled the far right and allowed racial tensions to grow".
So the most important thing here is that far right nutters like Nick Griffin picked up the story and used it for political gain, not the most obvious issue, not that there is a particular culture that was allowed to grow resulting in 1400+ kids being abused.0 -
You'd have said the same about Coatbridge till last nightrural_voter said:A bet on Labour retaining Rotherham might offer reasonable odds if it's been Red since 1933.
Unlike this constituency, where a pig with a Blue rosette would win and the bookies know it.0 -
Its times like these I wish I had a statistics degree (and that i'd had more than an hours sleep last night!)Richard_Nabavi said:
Isn't a Buy on SPIN, even at the increased price of 37, a better way of riding the SNP wave?Pong said:WH's 7/1 on SLAB 0-5 seats remains the best SNP bet out there though. If the ashcroft polls are replicated on may 7th, it'll be touch and go whether SLAB get over/under 5 seats.
The way I see it is SNP/SLAB seat totals under FPTP are likely to swing to one or the other extreme during the campaign depending on whether or not Lab can win back 5-10% of 2010 LAB>SNP switchers. It's either going to be an SLAB wipeout, or a pretty respectable performance. IMO SLAB are more likely to get more than 25 seats OR less than 10 than they are to get 10-25 seats. Trading the SNP on the spreads near the middle of this SLAB seat range is a bet on whether the ashcroft polls will be replicated in may - right now, that's not a bet I want to make.
I'm already very heavy on SLAB 10 or fewer seats at very long odds, but I've also just laid SNP most Scottish seats at 1.12-1.15
I'm staying away from the spreads unless I'm prepared to let them ride until settlement (my only current bet is a buy on UKIP @ 8.5 seats - which I expect to lose on, but the upside potential under FPTP is to big to ignore).0 -
Incidentally, there was a short interview with Justin Welby, the AoC, this morning on the Today programme about a forthcoming speech of his on business and taxation and the moral role of business.
It sounded interesting, not least because from his work on the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, Welby knows a thing or two about what the absence of morality can lead to.
The Tories would do well to listen to him. Milliband and Balls may have made berks of themselves with their Bill Somebody silliness but the idea that business has a responsibility to the society in which it operates is not some dangerously left-wing viewpoint but one which chimes with a lot of people, myself included.0 -
Is Eric Pickles going to intervene and replace the councils in Newcastle, Bristol and Peterborough with comissioners?
Why not? Is it because there haven't been investigations into the scale of abuse there?
Oh, right.0 -
This morning's Today programme also had an item about persecution of Christians. Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali was interviewed. Contrary to what some of the grievance mongers and their little helpers would have you believe, the most persecuted religious group in the world today is Christianity.
Today's illustrative story was of a Pakistani Christian woman who was accused of insulting Mo himself in some neighbourly spat, put on trial for blasphemy, convicted and sentenced to death. She has been in prison for 5 years. A Pakistani governor who campaigned for her release and for the blasphemy law to be changed was murdered by his own security guard with people celebrating his murder.
And to this benighted country we are giving money; we are allowing young men and women from the more backward parts to be imported as spouses to this country because we don't have the balls to reimpose the primary purpose rule within immigration law nor to realise that this leads to young British girls being taken out of school and forced into marriage against their will (or kidnapping and rape, as these things are usually called). This is a country where rape is imposed by village elders as an extra-legal punishment on women. And we wonder why young men brought up in this culture or according to this culture see nothing wrong with using violence to achieve their aims. We wonder why such people treat women with contempt – and why there seems to be an Asian-Pakistan connection in the systematic sexual abuse of young girls in Rotherham and other towns in England. We wonder why such people do not understand or want the concept of free speech; we wonder why they want – and are seeking to impose through fear – a similar blasphemy law on the rest of us. And we do not even use the money we send in their direction to require or demand justice for this poor woman and others like her. Even though we have (rightly, in my view) imposed such conditions on African countries in relation to their treatment of gays.
She is another Charlie but she is poor and dark and Christian and so we – or not enough of us – do not care. Her name is Asia Bibi. The governor who was murdered was called Salman Taseer.
As someone once said about such people: "They are too foreign for the Right. And too Christian for the Left."
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Well, here is the BBC's report about the appointment of Justice Goddard to lead the historic child abuse enquiry, so you can count them yourself. I make it zero for Conservative and zero for Tory.FrancisUrquhart said:Amazing the lack of a certain word beginning with L in this reporting...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Now if it had been the Tories, I wonder? How many times are we reminded for instance Leon Brittan....TORY...close to THATCHER...while still nothing has been proved.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-311308050 -
And of course there were the Times allegations about police officers and councillors actually paying to have relations with these teenage sex slaves.SeanT said:
See my post downthread. Prosecutions are a real possibility (I'd say almost a certainty)Cyclefree said:
I hope so. I really do.SeanT said:
Even if the CPS are too feeble to prosecute the council and police, we now know that there are 1440 girls who were raped over 20 years, partly because of the council's "culture of denial, sexism, bullying, political correctness" etc etc.Cyclefree said:
I hope so. But I think you may be being optimistic.SeanT said:
I don't think they will be able to dodge the bullet now. I don't think we will see quiet resignations, nice pension pots, and new jobs down the road in Ed Miliband's Doncaster.FrancisUrquhart said:
With "transitional payments" I presume?SeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
I suspect we will now see prosecutions, criminal and civil, of these councillors and police, past and present. But I could be over-optimistic.
Evidence: Margaret Hodge. She was a councillor - the leader in fact - when similar things happened. She libelled an abuse victim and had to apologise. And look at her now.
These girls are in a position to sue and win millions - and good luck to them. There will surely be court cases.
Can't councillors be surcharged or otherwise disciplined in some way?
"IPCC) is investigating 10 South Yorkshire Police officers over their handling of child sexual exploitation in Rotherham"
"National Crime Agency say "a number of potentially criminal matters" identified in report into #Rotherham Council's handling of sexual abuse"
Given that, shouldn't the remit of the child abuse inquiry be expanded beyond whether "public bodies and other non-state institutions have taken seriously their duty of care to protect children from sexual abuse in England and Wales"?
Don't you think they should investigate the gangs themselves, how they operated and how they got friends in high places?0 -
Is the whole stinking mess of lefty PC child abuse cover ups about to break big style and not just in Rotherham? I'm sure Ed will welcome this with open arms and instruct every Labour council to co-operate fully! ;-)0
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Be very interesting if they ever get into a postion where they are under oath.SeanT said:This is incredible:
"Only two people refused to speak to Casey team, former council leader Roger Stone and former SYPCC Shaun Wright"
Refused to speak????0 -
Do Ladbrokes do accumulators? - I can't find out how to do them...0
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This video is just awful. A father went to the house where his daughter was being forced into prostitution and was arrested twice. He was then told by the police to stay away or he'd be convicted for stalking:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-311287360 -
I will make only 2 comments until dinner.
One is that UKIP need an extra 5.5% swing from Labour to gain Rotherham on top of the last Ashcroft poll there (LAB 48, UKIP 37), that's a tall order, however there might be a spillover in Rother Valley where UKIP needs only an extra 3% swing (LAB 40, UKIP 34), on the face of it Rother Valley looks better to fall into UKIP hands after the latest developments.
Two, is that the small incumbency bonus and the 1/5th of Tories voting LD in scotland won't have any effect because the SNP leads are huge and the Tory vote was nearly extinct anyway, also the swing from Labour to the SNP in Glasgow of 24.5% is about what I expected for the bastion of YES, so it has reaffirmed my prediction of SNP 46-48, LAB 7-8, CON 2-3, LD 2 seats in scotland.0 -
Jeez, we really are dealing with sick sick individuals,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2939529/Slaughtered-entertainment-Crowds-gather-watch-barbaric-murder-Jordanian-pilot-specially-erected-giant-screens-streets-Raqqa-CHEER-airman-goes-flames.html0 -
SLAB resorting to lying about the constitution on Twitter now:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9AdFvMIMAEKPjt.png0 -
Hi Dewi, and welcome. If you are trying to do accumulators on seats you are out of luck. Unsurprisingly they are deemed "related contingencies".Dewi said:Do Ladbrokes do accumulators? - I can't find out how to do them...
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Lab lead in Rother Valley 6%. Tory share 18%
There is scope for tactical voting.
I know some believe that Tories don't do this, but Heywood and Middleton hinted otherwise.0 -
It’s like seeing Pol Pot re-incarnated!FrancisUrquhart said:Jeez, we really are dealing with sick sick individuals,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2939529/Slaughtered-entertainment-Crowds-gather-watch-barbaric-murder-Jordanian-pilot-specially-erected-giant-screens-streets-Raqqa-CHEER-airman-goes-flames.html0 -
You misinterpret that sentence about the far right: that was surely a dig at UKIP, and many, on reading the sentence will think of UKIP, after being smeared so many times by the MSM and on PB, as being "far right".FrancisUrquhart said:Amazing the lack of a certain word beginning with L in this reporting...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Now if it had been the Tories, I wonder? How many times are we reminded for instance Leon Brittan....TORY...close to THATCHER...while still nothing has been proved.
Also amazing bit of cherry picking...
But the investigators said that by failing to take action against the abusers of Pakistani heritage, the council had "inadvertently fuelled the far right and allowed racial tensions to grow".
So the most important thing here is that far right nutters like Nick Griffin picked up the story and used it for political gain, not the most obvious issue, not that there is a particular culture that was allowed to grow resulting in 1400+ kids being abused.
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Ladbrokes' 2.37 on UKIP to gain any labour held seat isn't a bad bet.Speedy said:I will make only 2 comments until dinner.
One is that UKIP need an extra 5.5% swing from Labour to gain Rotherham on top of the last Ashcroft poll there (LAB 48, UKIP 37), that's a tall order, however there might be a spillover in Rother Valley where UKIP needs only an extra 3% swing (LAB 40, UKIP 34), on the face of it Rother Valley looks better to fall into UKIP hands after the latest developments.
Two, is that the small incumbency bonus and the 1/5th of Tories voting LD in scotland won't have any effect because the SNP leads are huge and the Tory vote was nearly extinct anyway, also the swing from Labour to the SNP in Glasgow of 24.5% is about what I expected for the bastion of YES, so it has reaffirmed my prediction of SNP 46-48, LAB 7-8, CON 2-3, LD 2 seats in scotland.
Not one i'm tempted by though!0 -
Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.0
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How is it possible to leave out any reference to The Labour Party in this BBC news report on Rotherham?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
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We will not use an image of David Cameron on our posters at this election.Tissue_Price said:SLAB resorting to lying about the constitution on Twitter now:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9AdFvMIMAEKPjt.png
Oh, wait...0 -
Unofficially perhaps but at arms length because of the other allegations about mainly though not entirely former Conservatives. (And both announced today!)Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
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The whole issue of historical child abuse is a ticking time bomb, and who knows where and when it will blow up. We already know there are allegations / cases of abuse involving members of all main parties, so it would be a very brave leader of a party to go big on this story, only to find out the bomb explodes and first up are member of your own.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
0 -
Cameron will do nothing. He doesn't want to upset the Muslim vote. And Muslims react to criticism of the extremist Muslims as being an attack on all of them. Just look at TSE on here yesterday: he's a highly integrated, infidel-marrying, gambling Muslim, so clearly not part of the group people have an issue with. And yet he still says he's under attack when people get angry at the rape gangs or the pilot burners.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
0 -
I note from her website that "Sarah Champion, Member of Parliament for Rotherham, held her first Girls Safety Summit this week with local students, asking if young women feel safe in modern society.”
It was apparently a closed meeting with another female MP with (what I would call) VIth form girls.0 -
Thanks, Pong, that reasoning makes sense.Pong said:The way I see it is SNP/SLAB seat totals under FPTP are likely to swing to one or the other extreme during the campaign depending on whether or not Lab can win back 5-10% of 2010 LAB>SNP switchers. It's either going to be an SLAB wipeout, or a pretty respectable performance. IMO SLAB are more likely to get more than 25 seats OR less than 10 than they are to get 10-25 seats. Trading the SNP on the spreads near the middle of this SLAB seat range is a bet on whether the ashcroft polls will be replicated in may - right now, that's not a bet I want to make.
I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion, however. The SNP have a big initial hurdle to overcome - they need a swing of 10% to grab their first three seats off Labour - but beyond that the distribution of seats vs further swing is fairly linear. It's nicely illustrated by the first graph here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9194
Of course it's not quite as simple as just uniform swing, but I don't see any reason to assume that there's a low probability of the result ending up somewhere in the middle of the range you mention.0 -
Cyclefree said:
This morning's Today programme also had an item about persecution of Christians. Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali was interviewed. Contrary to what some of the grievance mongers and their little helpers would have you believe, the most persecuted religious group in the world today is Christianity.
Today's illustrative story was of a Pakistani Christian woman who was accused of insulting Mo himself in some neighbourly spat, put on trial for blasphemy, convicted and sentenced to death. She has been in prison for 5 years. A Pakistani governor who campaigned for her release and for the blasphemy law to be changed was murdered by his own security guard with people celebrating his murder.
And to this benighted country we are giving money; we are allowing young men and women from the more backward parts to be imported as spouses to this country because we don't have the balls to reimpose the primary purpose rule within immigration law nor to realise that this leads to young British girls being taken out of school and forced into marriage against their will (or kidnapping and rape, as these things are usually called). This is a country where rape is imposed by village elders as an extra-legal punishment on women. And we wonder why young men brought up in this culture or according to this culture see nothing wrong with using violence to achieve their aims. We wonder why such people treat women with contempt – and why there seems to be an Asian-Pakistan connection in the systematic sexual abuse of young girls in Rotherham and other towns in England. We wonder why such people do not understand or want the concept of free speech; we wonder why they want – and are seeking to impose through fear – a similar blasphemy law on the rest of us. And we do not even use the money we send in their direction to require or demand justice for this poor woman and others like her. Even though we have (rightly, in my view) imposed such conditions on African countries in relation to their treatment of gays.
She is another Charlie but she is poor and dark and Christian and so we – or not enough of us – do not care. Her name is Asia Bibi. The governor who was murdered was called Salman Taseer.
As someone once said about such people: "They are too foreign for the Right. And too Christian for the Left."
Je suis Asia?
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If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.Socrates said:
Cameron will do nothing. He doesn't want to upset the Muslim vote. And Muslims react to criticism of the extremist Muslims as being an attack on all of them. Just look at TSE on here yesterday: he's a highly integrated, infidel-marrying, gambling Muslim, so clearly not part of the group people have an issue with. And yet he still says he's under attack when people get angry at the rape gangs or the pilot burners.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
0 -
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.0 -
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.0 -
You know if Dave went big on ALL child abuse and gave Labour councils and Tory grandees an equal hammering I can think it would do him nothing but good politically. What are our public servants for? I think all 3 mian party leaders are very decent individuals and should collectively rise above party politics to pull back the curtains completely on this abhorrent shite.0
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Vote harvesting on the back of child abuse seems a bit distasteful.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
Let the law deal with this horror, not publicity seeking politicians.0 -
Maybe Dave has a bit more class than to try to make party political capital out of this and enough nous to let the relevant authorities follow the evidence wherever it leads.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
0 -
I think the important thing now is to ensure that the criminal investigations are competent and comprehensive. There's a major job of work to be done on that, and it looks to me as though it would benefit from some leadership by politicians at the highest level.Patrick said:Thinking politically on a day when we see a bit more light into the horror of racially motivated mass child rape is a bit Macchiavellian - so forgive me - but will the Tories start to make more of Rotherham (and elsewhere)? The abuse is, I'm sure, not limited to Labour conuncils - but the scale of it and the cover ups do seem to have a very lefty PC agenda behind them. I have no doubt Farage will be working on his speech right now. Dave too? Labour have collapsed in Scotland and this might do serious damage in England.
So articulating a determination to bring the rapists to justice, and taking the practical steps that would help that to happen, would I think instil some confidence and bring a political benefit, as well as letting the relevant agencies know that they had the full backing of the politicians to do what is necessary.
If incumbent politicians can clean up a mess they don't necessarily need to make it explicit whose mess they are cleaning up, and it's best not to if individuals from all parties could be involved at one time or another.0 -
No more tweets. Action. The British government should use its influence and its financial help. It should raise this within the EU and get them to put pressure on Pakistan. What about the Commonwealth. It should impose some sort of sanctions on a country with which we have close ties until it does the right thing. It should shame Pakistan fo. It should not let the matter lie. Action this day, as someone once said.MarkHopkins said:Cyclefree said:This morning's Today programme also had an item about persecution of Christians. Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali was interviewed. Contrary to what some of the grievance mongers and their little helpers would have you believe, the most persecuted religious group in the world today is Christianity.
Today's illustrative story was of a Pakistani Christian woman who was accused of insulting Mo himself in some neighbourly spat, put on trial for blasphemy, convicted and sentenced to death. She has been in prison for 5 years. A Pakistani governor who campaigned for her release and for the blasphemy law to be changed was murdered by his own security guard with people celebrating his murder.
And to this benighted country we are giving money; we are allowing young men and women from the more backward parts to be imported as spouses to this country because we don't have the balls to reimpose the primary purpose rule within immigration law nor to realise that this leads to young British girls being taken out of school and forced into marriage against their will (or kidnapping and rape, as these things are usually called). This is a country where rape is imposed by village elders as an extra-legal punishment on women. And we wonder why young men brought up in this culture or according to this culture see nothing wrong with using violence to achieve their aims. We wonder why such people treat women with contempt – and why there seems to be an Asian-Pakistan connection in the systematic sexual abuse of young girls in Rotherham and other towns in England. We wonder why such people do not understand or want the concept of free speech; we wonder why they want – and are seeking to impose through fear – a similar blasphemy law on the rest of us. And we do not even use the money we send in their direction to require or demand justice for this poor woman and others like her. Even though we have (rightly, in my view) imposed such conditions on African countries in relation to their treatment of gays.
She is another Charlie but she is poor and dark and Christian and so we – or not enough of us – do not care. Her name is Asia Bibi. The governor who was murdered was called Salman Taseer.
As someone once said about such people: "They are too foreign for the Right. And too Christian for the Left."
Je suis Asia?
0 -
In April 2014 I had half of a profitable revelation: The LDs were going to be annihilated in Scotland. Excited I went to place bets on the 2nd favourites in every Lib Dem seat bar Orkney and the Shetlands. Now I'm sitting on a bet that the SNP will win Ross, Skye, Lochaber (10/1, now 6/4)...but also that Labour will win East Dunbartonshire (1/2, now 10/3).
Gah so close to a great book...!0 -
Yes: On-going.Socrates said:Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?
0 -
There are 2 investigations: (1) the Westminster ones where a NZ judge is being appointed, and (2) the potential for investigation into other "Rotherham's" - where it is unclear if progress is being made.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, Ipswich and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.0 -
Do you have any evidence for that?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes: On-going.Socrates said:Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?
0 -
So time to boast about my book:
Clearly people who got on last August are absolutely loving it right now but I made some recent SNP bets that I am more than happy with now.
On the 23rd of Jan I backed SNP in Rutherglen @ 4.33
They are now 1.5 and Labour are @ 2.5.0 -
In Oxford there seems to have been 7 convictions and police say they are following inquiries in relation to dozens of other suspects.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
0 -
The inquiry might well have enough to do. Crimes should be investigated by the police - if we can trust them. The National Crime Agency has taken over the investigation into child sexual exploitation in Rotherham and is ''in the preliminary stage of its inquiry''.Socrates said:
And of course there were the Times allegations about police officers and councillors actually paying to have relations with these teenage sex slaves.SeanT said:
See my post downthread. Prosecutions are a real possibility (I'd say almost a certainty)Cyclefree said:
I hope so. I really do.SeanT said:
....Cyclefree said:
I...SeanT said:
...FrancisUrquhart said:
With "transitional payments" I presume?SeanT said:Rotherham Borough Council’s cabinet is to resign in the wake of Louise Casey’s damning report “as soon as transitional arrangements can be put in place”, the council said.
- Guardian
Can't councillors be surcharged or otherwise disciplined in some way?
"IPCC) is investigating 10 South Yorkshire Police officers over their handling of child sexual exploitation in Rotherham"
"National Crime Agency say "a number of potentially criminal matters" identified in report into #Rotherham Council's handling of sexual abuse"
Given that, shouldn't the remit of the child abuse inquiry be expanded beyond whether "public bodies and other non-state institutions have taken seriously their duty of care to protect children from sexual abuse in England and Wales"?
Don't you think they should investigate the gangs themselves, how they operated and how they got friends in high places?
The report accuses senior Pakistani councillors of wielding a “disproportionate influence” within the authority, “particularly on issues which appeared to affect the Pakistani heritage community such as the taxi trade”. The Labour Council Leader (Stone) was labelled a 'bully''. Not much seems to have been missed out.
Meantime the report we are talking about was commissioned by a Tory minister who is calling in commissioners to run the council with new elections next year. The council cabinet has resigned I see. And all the actual events took place under a Labour Government.
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The Westminster one is not into the gangs themselves or the extensiveness of abuse.MarkHopkins said:
There are 2 investigations: (1) the Westminster ones where a NZ judge is being appointed, and (2) the potential for investigation into other "Rotherham's" - where it is unclear if progress is being made.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, Ipswich and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
As for the second one, "potential" does not mean an investigation.0 -
Agreed. Give the relevant authorities the resources they need and full backing. Urge other parties to commit to this too. Now. Publicly. Before the election.Patrick said:You know if Dave went big on ALL child abuse and gave Labour councils and Tory grandees an equal hammering I can think it would do him nothing but good politically. What are our public servants for? I think all 3 mian party leaders are very decent individuals and should collectively rise above party politics to pull back the curtains completely on this abhorrent shite.
And say that whoever is guilty, whoever they are, however grand, lowly, will be pursued. And keep on going, even when the press have turned their attention elsewhere.
0 -
Incidentally for those looking for shock SLab wins my local MP (Edinburgh East) has been burning shoe leather doing personal canvassing in the constituency - seems to be going length and breadth over the last month from what I hear and has paid me a visit eve though I still have a Yes poster in the window.0
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— Harry Plowman (@HarryPlowman2) February 4, 2015
Farage has spoken about child grooming. Above is a smiggin of what he said.0 -
Cyclefree said:
No more tweets. Action. The British government should use its influence and its financial help. It should raise this within the EU and get them to put pressure on Pakistan. What about the Commonwealth. It should impose some sort of sanctions on a country with which we have close ties until it does the right thing. It should shame Pakistan fo. It should not let the matter lie. Action this day, as someone once said.MarkHopkins said:Je suis Asia?
It's often (sadly) only the tweetrage that will get politicians to act.
0 -
Coming back to topic i dont understand how incumbency is helping in one of the seats for the LDs as the MP is standing down?
If OGH incumbency theory is shattered what else has he to hold onto i suppose..0 -
Interesting threads below the Mail's report on the SNP Tsunami.
THe most liked comments in the thread underneath are
'whatever you do, don't vote labour in England'. Not 'its UKIP for me' but 'anybody but labour'.
OK its the Mail. Usual caveats.0 -
I believe there was another conviction in Oxford in the past week. There is another case that has just concluded in Banbury.Neil said:
In Oxford there seems to have been 7 convictions and police say they are following inquiries in relation to dozens of other suspects.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
We are only just seeing the tip of the iceberg sadly0 -
As far as I can see the tweetrage is a substitute for action. Whatever happened to BringBackOurGirls once all those celebrities had had their photos taken?MarkHopkins said:Cyclefree said:
No more tweets. Action. The British government should use its influence and its financial help. It should raise this within the EU and get them to put pressure on Pakistan. What about the Commonwealth. It should impose some sort of sanctions on a country with which we have close ties until it does the right thing. It should shame Pakistan fo. It should not let the matter lie. Action this day, as someone once said.MarkHopkins said:Je suis Asia?
It's often (sadly) only the tweetrage that will get politicians to act.
0 -
In Rotherham we got about 15 convictions, and when there was an inquiry into the gangs it turned out at least 1400 girls had been raped and there were probably hundreds of rapists that had gone free. We can have no idea about whether the 7 convictions in Oxford got to the bottom of it there, or whether it was similarly widespread as in Rotherham. Given the Rotherham example, the police saying they are doing something doesn't fill me with confidence.Neil said:
In Oxford there seems to have been 7 convictions and police say they are following inquiries in relation to dozens of other suspects.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
Oh, and the only reason Oxford is an example I can bring up is because there were actually convictions there. Who knows how many places aren't even on the list because the police haven't convicted anyone at all.0 -
There's considerably less chance of Ed appearing on Labour posters than Cameron.Scott_P said:
We will not use an image of David Cameron on our posters at this election.Tissue_Price said:SLAB resorting to lying about the constitution on Twitter now:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9AdFvMIMAEKPjt.png
Oh, wait...0 -
I wonder if the Lib Dems holding West Aberdeenshire might be worth a punt? The Gordon poll has me wondering -- a muted rise for the SNP (and presumably even that is being boosted by Salmond's personal vote) and a comparatively respectable decline for the Lib Dems,
On the other side of the coin for the Lib Dems, Charlie Kennedy now looks in serious danger judging by the swing next door in Inverness.0 -
Guess this is what happens if your very complacent and think you've got a seat for life as a lot of Lab MP's seemed to believe when it came to their "fiefdom"...0
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Something like this, perhaps?Cyclefree said:Agreed. Give the relevant authorities the resources they need and full backing. Urge other parties to commit to this too. Now. Publicly. Before the election.
And say that whoever is guilty, whoever they are, however grand, lowly, will be pursued. And keep on going, even when the press have turned their attention elsewhere.
I have said before, and I shall say again, that what we have seen so far – in Rotherham, Oxford, and Greater Manchester and elsewhere – is only the tip of the iceberg.
...
With every passing day, every new revelation, it is clear that the sexual abuse of children has taken place – and is still taking place – on a scale that we still cannot fully comprehend.
...
So let me be clear, I am now more determined than ever to expose the people behind these despicable crimes and the people and institutions that knew about abuse but didn’t act, that failed to help when it was their duty - sometimes their very purpose - to do so, and the people and institutions that - in some cases - positively covered up evidence of abuse.0 -
I did the same in East DUnbartonshire, luckily had a saver on the SNP £10 @ 50-1, Lab £200 @ 1-2Quincel said:In April 2014 I had half of a profitable revelation: The LDs were going to be annihilated in Scotland. Excited I went to place bets on the 2nd favourites in every Lib Dem seat bar Orkney and the Shetlands. Now I'm sitting on a bet that the SNP will win Ross, Skye, Lochaber (10/1, now 6/4)...but also that Labour will win East Dunbartonshire (1/2, now 10/3).
Gah so close to a great book...!0 -
The Oxford case (and related local ones) are still ongoing investigations. Recently one of the key locations for the abuse was raided and more arrests followed. The local police are taking it very seriously. As they should - of course. But it is good to know that they are. And I know how it is personally affecting them - it isn't easy work and that is spurring them on to do the best job possible.Socrates said:
In Rotherham we got about 15 convictions, and when there was an inquiry into the gangs it turned out at least 1400 girls had been raped and there were probably hundreds of rapists that had gone free. We can have no idea about whether the 7 convictions in Oxford got to the bottom of it there, or whether it was similarly widespread as in Rotherham. Given the Rotherham example, the police saying they are doing something doesn't fill me with confidence.Neil said:
In Oxford there seems to have been 7 convictions and police say they are following inquiries in relation to dozens of other suspects.Socrates said:
Can you tell me the state of the investigations in, say, High Wycombe and Oxford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, have you read the news today? The suggestion that nothing is being done is beyond parody.Cyclefree said:If Cameron will do nothing it will be because there are equally horrific allegations around about Tories. So there is no political advantage to him.
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
Oh, and the only reason Oxford is an example I can bring up is because there were actually convictions there. Who knows how many places aren't even on the list because the police haven't convicted anyone at all.0
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