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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish pol
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus
One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus.
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Hopefully, will will have PR for the locals by then, to smash all such rotten boroughs...
The Parliamentary seats are another matter.
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard to lead abuse inquiry
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Rotherham Council cabinet to resign over child abuse report
The whole damned crew should resign, not just the cabinet.
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Louise Casey's report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
Helen Pidd @helenpidd · 16 secs 17 seconds ago
Pickles is appointing a panel of commissioners to sort out Rotherham - taking away power from the council on issues including taxi licencing
Helen Pidd @helenpidd · 3 mins 3 minutes ago
Eric Pickles says he will force all-out elections in Rotherham in 2015 - ie the whole council will have to stand for re-election.
Helen Pidd @helenpidd 2 mins2 minutes ago
Rotherham council's cabinet have just resigned en masse. Statement:
On my doorstep (I'm not in the constituency though)
Evidence: Margaret Hodge. She was a councillor - the leader in fact - when similar things happened. She libelled an abuse victim and had to apologise. And look at her now.
I am not Scottish but I would be delighted if the SNP were to send a rocket up SLAB's a*se. What with the referendum and this who knew Scottish politics could be so exciting!
And congratulations to Antifrank.
Last night, the SNP price in Glasgow South was 8/11, this afternoon 2/5
Last night, the SNP price in Ayrshire Central was 11/8, this afternoon 4/7
And so on.
But bravo to him for getting the markets back up so quickly.
And a few of us wanted to cast South Yorkshire into eternal shame. Shame, shame and shame again.
One could be forgiven for thinking that they're playing this card for blatant political reasons.
Most tory seats are in affluent areas where people depend on themselves and have lower expectations of what government can do.
Unlike this constituency, where a pig with a Blue rosette would win and the bookies know it.
Sheffield is vastly safer and more pro Labour than Rotherham,
Can't councillors be surcharged or otherwise disciplined in some way?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Now if it had been the Tories, I wonder? How many times are we reminded for instance Leon Brittan....TORY...close to THATCHER...while still nothing has been proved.
Also amazing bit of cherry picking...
But the investigators said that by failing to take action against the abusers of Pakistani heritage, the council had "inadvertently fuelled the far right and allowed racial tensions to grow".
So the most important thing here is that far right nutters like Nick Griffin picked up the story and used it for political gain, not the most obvious issue, not that there is a particular culture that was allowed to grow resulting in 1400+ kids being abused.
The way I see it is SNP/SLAB seat totals under FPTP are likely to swing to one or the other extreme during the campaign depending on whether or not Lab can win back 5-10% of 2010 LAB>SNP switchers. It's either going to be an SLAB wipeout, or a pretty respectable performance. IMO SLAB are more likely to get more than 25 seats OR less than 10 than they are to get 10-25 seats. Trading the SNP on the spreads near the middle of this SLAB seat range is a bet on whether the ashcroft polls will be replicated in may - right now, that's not a bet I want to make.
I'm already very heavy on SLAB 10 or fewer seats at very long odds, but I've also just laid SNP most Scottish seats at 1.12-1.15
I'm staying away from the spreads unless I'm prepared to let them ride until settlement (my only current bet is a buy on UKIP @ 8.5 seats - which I expect to lose on, but the upside potential under FPTP is to big to ignore).
It sounded interesting, not least because from his work on the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, Welby knows a thing or two about what the absence of morality can lead to.
The Tories would do well to listen to him. Milliband and Balls may have made berks of themselves with their Bill Somebody silliness but the idea that business has a responsibility to the society in which it operates is not some dangerously left-wing viewpoint but one which chimes with a lot of people, myself included.
Why not? Is it because there haven't been investigations into the scale of abuse there?
Oh, right.
Today's illustrative story was of a Pakistani Christian woman who was accused of insulting Mo himself in some neighbourly spat, put on trial for blasphemy, convicted and sentenced to death. She has been in prison for 5 years. A Pakistani governor who campaigned for her release and for the blasphemy law to be changed was murdered by his own security guard with people celebrating his murder.
And to this benighted country we are giving money; we are allowing young men and women from the more backward parts to be imported as spouses to this country because we don't have the balls to reimpose the primary purpose rule within immigration law nor to realise that this leads to young British girls being taken out of school and forced into marriage against their will (or kidnapping and rape, as these things are usually called). This is a country where rape is imposed by village elders as an extra-legal punishment on women. And we wonder why young men brought up in this culture or according to this culture see nothing wrong with using violence to achieve their aims. We wonder why such people treat women with contempt – and why there seems to be an Asian-Pakistan connection in the systematic sexual abuse of young girls in Rotherham and other towns in England. We wonder why such people do not understand or want the concept of free speech; we wonder why they want – and are seeking to impose through fear – a similar blasphemy law on the rest of us. And we do not even use the money we send in their direction to require or demand justice for this poor woman and others like her. Even though we have (rightly, in my view) imposed such conditions on African countries in relation to their treatment of gays.
She is another Charlie but she is poor and dark and Christian and so we – or not enough of us – do not care. Her name is Asia Bibi. The governor who was murdered was called Salman Taseer.
As someone once said about such people: "They are too foreign for the Right. And too Christian for the Left."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31130805
Given that, shouldn't the remit of the child abuse inquiry be expanded beyond whether "public bodies and other non-state institutions have taken seriously their duty of care to protect children from sexual abuse in England and Wales"?
Don't you think they should investigate the gangs themselves, how they operated and how they got friends in high places?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31128736
One is that UKIP need an extra 5.5% swing from Labour to gain Rotherham on top of the last Ashcroft poll there (LAB 48, UKIP 37), that's a tall order, however there might be a spillover in Rother Valley where UKIP needs only an extra 3% swing (LAB 40, UKIP 34), on the face of it Rother Valley looks better to fall into UKIP hands after the latest developments.
Two, is that the small incumbency bonus and the 1/5th of Tories voting LD in scotland won't have any effect because the SNP leads are huge and the Tory vote was nearly extinct anyway, also the swing from Labour to the SNP in Glasgow of 24.5% is about what I expected for the bastion of YES, so it has reaffirmed my prediction of SNP 46-48, LAB 7-8, CON 2-3, LD 2 seats in scotland.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2939529/Slaughtered-entertainment-Crowds-gather-watch-barbaric-murder-Jordanian-pilot-specially-erected-giant-screens-streets-Raqqa-CHEER-airman-goes-flames.html
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9AdFvMIMAEKPjt.png
There is scope for tactical voting.
I know some believe that Tories don't do this, but Heywood and Middleton hinted otherwise.
Not one i'm tempted by though!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
Oh, wait...
It was apparently a closed meeting with another female MP with (what I would call) VIth form girls.
I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion, however. The SNP have a big initial hurdle to overcome - they need a swing of 10% to grab their first three seats off Labour - but beyond that the distribution of seats vs further swing is fairly linear. It's nicely illustrated by the first graph here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9194
Of course it's not quite as simple as just uniform swing, but I don't see any reason to assume that there's a low probability of the result ending up somewhere in the middle of the range you mention.
Je suis Asia?
The whole stinking cesspit needs to be cleaned out - not for political reasons - but because it is the right thing to do.
Pickles is going around shutting down/assuming control of councils like Tower Hamlets/Rotherham.
Let the law deal with this horror, not publicity seeking politicians.
So articulating a determination to bring the rapists to justice, and taking the practical steps that would help that to happen, would I think instil some confidence and bring a political benefit, as well as letting the relevant agencies know that they had the full backing of the politicians to do what is necessary.
If incumbent politicians can clean up a mess they don't necessarily need to make it explicit whose mess they are cleaning up, and it's best not to if individuals from all parties could be involved at one time or another.
Gah so close to a great book...!
Clearly people who got on last August are absolutely loving it right now but I made some recent SNP bets that I am more than happy with now.
On the 23rd of Jan I backed SNP in Rutherglen @ 4.33
They are now 1.5 and Labour are @ 2.5.
The report accuses senior Pakistani councillors of wielding a “disproportionate influence” within the authority, “particularly on issues which appeared to affect the Pakistani heritage community such as the taxi trade”. The Labour Council Leader (Stone) was labelled a 'bully''. Not much seems to have been missed out.
Meantime the report we are talking about was commissioned by a Tory minister who is calling in commissioners to run the council with new elections next year. The council cabinet has resigned I see. And all the actual events took place under a Labour Government.
As for the second one, "potential" does not mean an investigation.
And say that whoever is guilty, whoever they are, however grand, lowly, will be pursued. And keep on going, even when the press have turned their attention elsewhere.
Farage has spoken about child grooming. Above is a smiggin of what he said.
It's often (sadly) only the tweetrage that will get politicians to act.
If OGH incumbency theory is shattered what else has he to hold onto i suppose..
THe most liked comments in the thread underneath are
'whatever you do, don't vote labour in England'. Not 'its UKIP for me' but 'anybody but labour'.
OK its the Mail. Usual caveats.
We are only just seeing the tip of the iceberg sadly
Oh, and the only reason Oxford is an example I can bring up is because there were actually convictions there. Who knows how many places aren't even on the list because the police haven't convicted anyone at all.
On the other side of the coin for the Lib Dems, Charlie Kennedy now looks in serious danger judging by the swing next door in Inverness.
I have said before, and I shall say again, that what we have seen so far – in Rotherham, Oxford, and Greater Manchester and elsewhere – is only the tip of the iceberg.
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With every passing day, every new revelation, it is clear that the sexual abuse of children has taken place – and is still taking place – on a scale that we still cannot fully comprehend.
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So let me be clear, I am now more determined than ever to expose the people behind these despicable crimes and the people and institutions that knew about abuse but didn’t act, that failed to help when it was their duty - sometimes their very purpose - to do so, and the people and institutions that - in some cases - positively covered up evidence of abuse.