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A plurality of voters think gambling taxes are too low – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,743
edited 6:53AM in General
A plurality of voters think gambling taxes are too low – politicalbetting.com

With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?Too high: 7%Too low: 33%About right: 18%Don't know: 43%yougov.co.uk/topics/socie…

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,425
    THE GROOMING STORY IS STILL OFF LIMITS. AS I AM ON HOLIDAY, THE SPAM TRAP WILL NOW AUTOMATICALLY BAN YOU.

    DON'T RUIN MY HOLIDAY.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655
    We only have governance by opinion poll when it suits those in govt advocating a policy.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,564
    edited 6:56AM
    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,162
    Apart from a flutter on the Grand National, most voters don't have the money to bet? So have no idea about the level of gambling taxes. They will shrug their shoulders and get on with life if they double in the Budget.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614
    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    I think the problem with this is, anyone will always say that there will be immediate Armageddon if we raise taxes on anything (Brexit, farms, private schools, etc).

    So they tend to discount the immediate scare stories. Which usually turn out to be untrue anyway, so they say, well, we were right to ignore them.

    The longer term negative impact then gets lost in the void somewhat.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,564
    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614
    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655
    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    They’ve already said that to which anti gambling fanatics have said ‘good’. Betfred said this last week. The response was the usual predictable Victorian paternalistic twaddle.

    Betting shops have been closing, many after the changes to the FOBT machines.

    https://x.com/cjsnowdon/status/1980341362366275653?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    There’s already been a decline. Around 25% have closed in the last decade.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,665
    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    I am not a big gambler, mostly a few quid on the Leicester City game each week, and at election time, and I dont know.

    I think it is mostly seen as a sin tax, and discouraging gambling is like discouraging smoking, a good thing in all circumstances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656
    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    And the shops only ever really existed for the machines, which is why there are so many of them.

    With the machines neutered somewhat in recent years, the operators will close the shops and move the online business offshore. So Rachel ends up with no taxes at all.

    Short of banning UK banks from dealing with offshore bookies, she’s screwed.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,564
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    They’re already going to lift the two child benefit cap at a cost of, what, £3.5 billion.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    Although if the council owns the premises, that doesn't actually solve the problem...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656

    Apart from a flutter on the Grand National, most voters don't have the money to bet? So have no idea about the level of gambling taxes. They will shrug their shoulders and get on with life if they double in the Budget.

    Don’t give her too many ideas, or she’ll end up prosecuting the guy in your office who runs the annual £1 Grand National sweepstake for tax evasion.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    The Exact Moment When Bill Clinton Knew He Won the Presidency
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Z8_JLWd80Mw

    A 50-seconds video. The claim is that in a debate, President GHW Bush, while being questioned, looked at his watch. Those who saw it gave Clinton the win, whereas listeners lent to Bush.

    It parallels the well-known finding in JFK/Nixon where radio listeners thought Nixon won but television viewers gave the verdict to Kennedy, who won the election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,659
    edited 7:11AM
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    I think the problem with this is, anyone will always say that there will be immediate Armageddon if we raise taxes on anything (Brexit, farms, private schools, etc).

    So they tend to discount the immediate scare stories. Which usually turn out to be untrue anyway, so they say, well, we were right to ignore them.

    The longer term negative impact then gets lost in the void somewhat.
    A case in point the number of private school pupils in Scotland is already down 10%. Hard to see that trend not continuing. My kids old school is selling buildings and laying off staff with numbers down more like 20% since they were there. The damage done to our educational sector vastly outweighs the relatively trivial sums that will have been raised.

    https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scottish-private-schools-say-rolls-down-more-than-1000-since-vat-imposed-on-fees
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    They’re already going to lift the two child benefit cap at a cost of, what, £3.5 billion.

    Nige is already checking family size by ethnicity tables. And if he isn't, someone will make them up.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,667
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,342
    Good morning all.

    I'm not sure where we are with FOBTs. Is there room for significantly reducing the numbers of them around?

    Are they are major money-laundering route?
    Are they still a plague on poorer people?

    (These are one of those things I have just never done - ever, like getting legless drunk, smoking, drugs, online gaming. I have my other vices, I am sure - just not those.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,711
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    And the shops only ever really existed for the machines, which is why there are so many of them.

    With the machines neutered somewhat in recent years, the operators will close the shops and move the online business offshore. So Rachel ends up with no taxes at all.

    Short of banning UK banks from dealing with offshore bookies, she’s screwed.
    The friends I’ve made in the gambling industry are all in Gibraltar now. And before any says it - they are Scandinavian & Irish

    That’s the a feature of high skilled, well paid immigrants. They are more mobile than the UK locals and look at changing country like changing house.

    If the tax/service/environment doesn’t improve, a bunch of colleagues at the bank might well ask to move to a different European office.

    Why not? As they are all immigrants from outside Europe, it just means asking the bank to pay for some relatively cheap paperwork.

    They don’t have to even change jobs - we are a distributed team, home working etc already. Joining the daily all from Rome or wherever makes little difference.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,659

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Absolutely we should. We have not been in recession since 2020 on the back of Covid. That is a very long and mature expansion. If we are not at surplus after more than 5 years of growth, however modest, our finances are seriously unbalanced. Which, of course, they are. When things turn down, which they will, we will be in serious trouble.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614
    edited 7:16AM
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    I think the problem with this is, anyone will always say that there will be immediate Armageddon if we raise taxes on anything (Brexit, farms, private schools, etc).

    So they tend to discount the immediate scare stories. Which usually turn out to be untrue anyway, so they say, well, we were right to ignore them.

    The longer term negative impact then gets lost in the void somewhat.
    A case in point the number of private school pupils in Scotland are already down 10%. Hard to see that trend not continuing. My kids old school is selling buildings and laying off staff with numbers down more like 20% since they were there. The damage done to our educational sector vastly outweighs the relatively trivial sums that will have been raised.

    https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scottish-private-schools-say-rolls-down-more-than-1000-since-vat-imposed-on-fees
    Rolls were falling anyway, due to low birth rates and weak international markets, and costs were rising anyway, so private schools were going under anyway. Kilgraston springs to mind (and, in one of those ironies that makes life interesting, the audit that led Achieve Group to withdraw from the purchase threw up the information that Chase Grammar School in Cannock, one of their other schools, had been insolvent for years and keeping afloat by 'interesting' procedures on their returns, causing that to close as well).

    But the greatest damage if there is any isn't going to be yet. Give it two years, while the current cohort work through A-level and particularly GCSE, and then we shall see the impact.

    The fact that already the numbers are very out of kilter with government estimates (as in, three times as much) does not bode well, but is not on its own conclusive.

    I would expect the same with betting shops, although as demand for them is more elastic the timeframes will be shorter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,442
    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656
    edited 7:22AM
    How’s about if the question was “Denise Coates paid £300m in income tax last year, her company £200m in corporation tax, and she employs 5,000 people based in the Midlands. Should she relocate her business to Gibraltar?”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,659
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    I think the problem with this is, anyone will always say that there will be immediate Armageddon if we raise taxes on anything (Brexit, farms, private schools, etc).

    So they tend to discount the immediate scare stories. Which usually turn out to be untrue anyway, so they say, well, we were right to ignore them.

    The longer term negative impact then gets lost in the void somewhat.
    A case in point the number of private school pupils in Scotland are already down 10%. Hard to see that trend not continuing. My kids old school is selling buildings and laying off staff with numbers down more like 20% since they were there. The damage done to our educational sector vastly outweighs the relatively trivial sums that will have been raised.

    https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scottish-private-schools-say-rolls-down-more-than-1000-since-vat-imposed-on-fees
    Rolls were falling anyway, due to low birth rates and weak international markets, and costs were rising anyway, so private schools were going under anyway. Kilgraston springs to mind (and, in one of those ironies that makes life interesting, the audit that led Achieve Group to withdraw from the purchase threw up the information that Chase Grammar School in Cannock, one of their other schools, had been insolvent for years and keeping afloat by 'interesting' procedures on their returns, causing that to close as well).

    But the greatest damage if there is any isn't going to be yet. Give it two years, while the current cohort work through A-level and particularly GCSE, and then we shall see the impact.

    The fact that already the numbers are very out of kilter with government estimates (as in, three times as much) does not bode well, but is not on its own conclusive.

    I would expect the same with betting shops, although as demand for them is more elastic the timeframes will be shorter.
    Yeah, most parents will delay the new car or cancel the holiday to allow their child to complete a course of education they are already on. But they will conclude that they cannot afford to start that journey again. The damage will accelerate well beyond the breaking point where the cost of educating those additional children in the public sector exceeds the tax raised making a nonsense of smaller class sizes or whatever else was promised.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is one of those times where knowing the exact question asked is very important.

    Because I suspect the answer would be different if you said With gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, losing 30,000 jobs do the public think taxes on gambling are too high or low?

    So it's quite useful to know if the question was

    Should we tax gambling firms more?

    or gambling firms saying they might have to close betting shops if taxes on gambling are raised, Should we tax gambling firms more?

    I think the problem with this is, anyone will always say that there will be immediate Armageddon if we raise taxes on anything (Brexit, farms, private schools, etc).

    So they tend to discount the immediate scare stories. Which usually turn out to be untrue anyway, so they say, well, we were right to ignore them.

    The longer term negative impact then gets lost in the void somewhat.
    A case in point the number of private school pupils in Scotland are already down 10%. Hard to see that trend not continuing. My kids old school is selling buildings and laying off staff with numbers down more like 20% since they were there. The damage done to our educational sector vastly outweighs the relatively trivial sums that will have been raised.

    https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scottish-private-schools-say-rolls-down-more-than-1000-since-vat-imposed-on-fees
    Rolls were falling anyway, due to low birth rates and weak international markets, and costs were rising anyway, so private schools were going under anyway. Kilgraston springs to mind (and, in one of those ironies that makes life interesting, the audit that led Achieve Group to withdraw from the purchase threw up the information that Chase Grammar School in Cannock, one of their other schools, had been insolvent for years and keeping afloat by 'interesting' procedures on their returns, causing that to close as well).

    But the greatest damage if there is any isn't going to be yet. Give it two years, while the current cohort work through A-level and particularly GCSE, and then we shall see the impact.

    The fact that already the numbers are very out of kilter with government estimates (as in, three times as much) does not bode well, but is not on its own conclusive.

    I would expect the same with betting shops, although as demand for them is more elastic the timeframes will be shorter.
    Yeah, most parents will delay the new car or cancel the holiday to allow their child to complete a course of education they are already on. But they will conclude that they cannot afford to start that journey again. The damage will accelerate well beyond the breaking point where the cost of educating those additional children in the public sector exceeds the tax raised making a nonsense of smaller class sizes or whatever else was promised.
    They promised more teachers, although that had to be more about plugging gaps were recruitment was impossible rather than smaller class sizes.

    With falling rolls, of course, smaller class sizes would actually be very easy to attain. Just keep the staffing levels constant and watch as ratios contract.

    But, of course, they are closing schools and cutting staff instead because funding is per pupil not en bloc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,711

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Just because recent governments didn’t follow the economic cycle…

    Basically, we aren’t in recession. Yet. Recession will come. It always has. So the classic thinking is that while tax returns are high, pay down the borrowing. This gives you space to borrow in the recession that will come.

    As things are, when the next recession starts, tax returns will drop. The budget deficit could easily double. And the cost of borrowing then rockets…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    If she’s not touching income tax rates or VAT, just about all she has left that raises serious money is the tax free pension contributions at the higher rates. And that could backfire with a load of early retirements in the public sector - waves at the doctors.

    Another that raises more money than we think it does, is the electric car salary sacrifice and company car tax allowances. This saves my brother £10k a year. Just don’t tell Ed Miliband.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,425

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    We should note that it was by following Kenneth Clarke's spending plans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    He also promised us no more boom and bust.

    47 times, according to Rawnsley.

    Then claimed what he had actually said was 'no more Tory boom and bust.'
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,636

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    She can't meaningfully cut spending unless she cuts spending on NHS/social care or pensions.

    Everything else is running on a shoestring already after the cuts since 2010.

    Given that the Labour strategy for the next election is to gamble everything on improving the NHS, and the government have already backed down on a modest cut to pensioner payouts, then she has zero room for manoeuvre.

    The only meaningful card she has left to play is a new property tax.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    He also promised us no more boom and bust.

    47 times, according to Rawnsley.

    Then claimed what he had actually said was 'no more Tory boom and bust.'
    Hubris, but borne of successfully sidestepping the European downturn using counter-cyclical spending. If he'd said, no more normal size boom and busts but if a really big one comes along...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656
    edited 7:35AM

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    In 2007 the economy was absolutely booming, yet the government was still spending more than it was collecting in taxes.

    It should have been banking the taxes from the bankers’ bonuses and saving them for a rainy day.

    Then it didn’t rain but it poured, and the crappy finances made the recession and the recovery from it much worse than otherwise would have been the case.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,162

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    She can't meaningfully cut spending unless she cuts spending on NHS/social care or pensions.

    Everything else is running on a shoestring already after the cuts since 2010.

    Given that the Labour strategy for the next election is to gamble everything on improving the NHS, and the government have already backed down on a modest cut to pensioner payouts, then she has zero room for manoeuvre.

    The only meaningful card she has left to play is a new property tax.
    ...and watch Labour's poll numbers go slip slidin' away....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,659

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    I think tax reliefs on pensions are very vulnerable. Perhaps removing HRT relief so that all contributions only get relief at the basic rate, restrictions on tax free lump sums and freezing maximum life time contributions. We already have a freeze in thresholds for the foreseeable but announcing more may make some future years look better.

    But I see none of the obvious sense of urgency required. We need £20-40bn a year more tax revenue and at least that in spending cuts to have any real impact on our trajectory.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,387

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Brown inherited a strongly growing economy with low and falling borrowing, a trade surplus and affordable housing in a benign world and then had a £20bn windfall from 3G licences.

    By 2007 the UK economy was a disaster waiting to happen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    edited 7:39AM
    DavidL said:

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    I think tax reliefs on pensions are very vulnerable. Perhaps removing HRT relief so that all contributions only get relief at the basic rate, restrictions on tax free lump sums and freezing maximum life time contributions. We already have a freeze in thresholds for the foreseeable but announcing more may make some future years look better.

    But I see none of the obvious sense of urgency required. We need £20-40bn a year more tax revenue and at least that in spending cuts to have any real impact on our trajectory.
    I'd like to see it but it would hit the well-paid pundit class.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,425

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
    But what did Ken Clarke say recently.

    John Major was prepared to lose the next election by trying to ensure the public finances were on a sound footing.

    The Tories led in a poll with ICM months after Black Wednesday, it was the tax rises that really ruined the Tories, they spent the 1992 election campaign banging on about Labour's tax rises.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,586
    FPT…
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Also wild, but in a good way.

    ESMO 2025: mRNA-based COVID vaccines generate improved responses to immunotherapy

    https://www.mdanderson.org/newsroom/research-newsroom/-esmo-2025--mrna-based-covid-vaccines-generate-improved-response.h00-159780390.html
    Cancer patients who received mRNA COVID vaccines within 100 days of starting immunotherapy were twice as likely to be alive three years after treatment as those who never received a vaccine
    These findings have prompted a randomized Phase III trial to determine if mRNA COVID vaccines should be part of the standard of care for this type of therapy
    If validated, findings could significantly increase the number of patients who benefit from immunotherapy..


    Obviously this needs confirming in a controlled clinical trial (a phase III trial is in now in the works), but this is a huge effect, in a study of a thousand patients, so it seems pretty likely it will be.

    This is a particularly interesting part of the findings. I'd like to hear @Foxy 's thoughts on this, and the implications for cancers not routinely treated with immunotherapy.

    Importantly, these survival improvements were most pronounced in patients with immunologically “cold” tumors, which would not be expected to respond well to immunotherapy. These patients, who have very low PD-L1 expression on their tumors, experienced a nearly five-fold improvement in three-year overall survival with receipt of a COVID vaccine...

    It's a matter of more than academic interest for some of us.
    Not my area, but a remarkable finding.

    One to save for the anti-vaxxers on Saturday morning: covid vaccines cure cancer!

    That won't stop them claiming they cause BA pilots to die of heart attacks.

    Serious point though - covid vaccines will cause mass deaths.

    Why? Because they have driven RFK Jr further round the twist than he already was, and he has as a result stripped out American healthcare funding for international vaccine programmes.

    New example of chaos theory: man invents successful vaccine, millions of people die from avoidable diseases.
    The majority of posts on X in reply to this news were from anti-vaxxers denouncing it as lies...

    And MD Anderson has a good case for being the top cancer treatment center in the US, possibly the world.
    And Reform UK will put the anti-vaxxers in office, as Trump has.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Can we levy a new tax on newspapers for printing stories about Andrew and Harry?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,396
    edited 7:40AM
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    And the Chief Secretary said… “but think of the schools’n’hospitals”. I’m intrigued as to
    what he would define as playing “fast and loose with the public finances”

    Responding to the figures, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the government would "never play fast and loose with the public finances".

    He reiterated the government's aim of bringing down borrowing, to be rid of "costly debt interest, instead putting that money into our NHS, schools and police".


    This was from the bbc article linked on the last thread but I can’t be arsed to find it again to link to source so you’ll just have to take my word for it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,162

    The Exact Moment When Bill Clinton Knew He Won the Presidency
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Z8_JLWd80Mw

    A 50-seconds video. The claim is that in a debate, President GHW Bush, while being questioned, looked at his watch. Those who saw it gave Clinton the win, whereas listeners lent to Bush.

    It parallels the well-known finding in JFK/Nixon where radio listeners thought Nixon won but television viewers gave the verdict to Kennedy, who won the election.

    Nixon sweated heavily in the debate. JFK didn't. TV viewers could see this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,842

    Sin taxes won't even touch the sides.

    She'll need to raise taxes very significantly, and my guess is income tax threshold freeze, inheritance tax hike and a raid on pensions allowances at the very least.

    She might even go further. She won't meaningfully cut spending.

    She can't meaningfully cut spending unless she cuts spending on NHS/social care or pensions.

    Everything else is running on a shoestring already after the cuts since 2010.

    Given that the Labour strategy for the next election is to gamble everything on improving the NHS, and the government have already backed down on a modest cut to pensioner payouts, then she has zero room for manoeuvre.

    The only meaningful card she has left to play is a new property tax.
    ...and watch Labour's poll numbers go slip slidin' away....
    They're already dreadful. Might as well do something useful.
    A well designed property tax alongside scrapping stamp duty would be a permanent legacy. No one will be able to afford scrapping it, and it would rebalance the UK economy to make those who benefitted from property price boom contribute.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    And the Chief Secretary said… “but think of the schools’n’hospitals”. I’m intrigued as to
    what he would define as playing “fast and loose with the public finances”

    Responding to the figures, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the government would "never play fast and loose with the public finances".

    He reiterated the government's aim of bringing down borrowing, to be rid of "costly debt interest, instead putting that money into our NHS, schools and police".


    This was from the bbc article linked on the last thread but I can’t be arsed to find it again to link to source so you’ll just have to take my word for it
    He did indeed say that, seemingly oblivious to the scale of the problem.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8035130918o

    The bond markets are not going to be too happy, which is a problem when you have £2trn of debt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    In 2007 the economy was absolutely booming, yet the government was still spending more than it was collecting in taxes.

    It should have been banking the taxes from the bankers’ bonuses and saving them for a rainy day.

    Then it didn’t rain but it poured, and the crappy finances made the recession and the recovery from it much worse than otherwise would have been the case.
    Not so, look at the cost of the GFC (and for that matter, Covid) and none of your solutions would have touched the sides. And as we have discussed last week, the American economy with which we were in lockstep now soars ahead following massive government investment.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,695
    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,396
    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
    Not really. There are some unscrupulous advises running people around telling them to do this and costing the taxpayer - you and me - 10s of millions.

    It may be legal but it’s unethical
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,741
    edited 7:45AM
    Sandpit said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Can we levy a new tax on newspapers for printing stories about Andrew and Harry?
    Just Harry, it's public interest to report on Andrew, who's connected to a sex offender and makes appallingly unwise business connections, some while he was a trade ambassador for UK. It's not public interest to bitch about Harry and his wife, speculate on family relations and other personal trivia, that's driven by media hits and Murdoch spite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,357

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
    It was their economic reputation that was destroyed not the economy, and Clarke was on the way to rebuilding it.
    By 1996, the PSBR was falling sharply; the UK was in its fifth year of economic growth; inflation was under control.

    You can argue where it all then went wrong, but to claim Brown didn't inherit a robust economy in 1997 is just silly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,357

    FPT…

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Also wild, but in a good way.

    ESMO 2025: mRNA-based COVID vaccines generate improved responses to immunotherapy

    https://www.mdanderson.org/newsroom/research-newsroom/-esmo-2025--mrna-based-covid-vaccines-generate-improved-response.h00-159780390.html
    Cancer patients who received mRNA COVID vaccines within 100 days of starting immunotherapy were twice as likely to be alive three years after treatment as those who never received a vaccine
    These findings have prompted a randomized Phase III trial to determine if mRNA COVID vaccines should be part of the standard of care for this type of therapy
    If validated, findings could significantly increase the number of patients who benefit from immunotherapy..


    Obviously this needs confirming in a controlled clinical trial (a phase III trial is in now in the works), but this is a huge effect, in a study of a thousand patients, so it seems pretty likely it will be.

    This is a particularly interesting part of the findings. I'd like to hear @Foxy 's thoughts on this, and the implications for cancers not routinely treated with immunotherapy.

    Importantly, these survival improvements were most pronounced in patients with immunologically “cold” tumors, which would not be expected to respond well to immunotherapy. These patients, who have very low PD-L1 expression on their tumors, experienced a nearly five-fold improvement in three-year overall survival with receipt of a COVID vaccine...

    It's a matter of more than academic interest for some of us.
    Not my area, but a remarkable finding.

    One to save for the anti-vaxxers on Saturday morning: covid vaccines cure cancer!

    That won't stop them claiming they cause BA pilots to die of heart attacks.

    Serious point though - covid vaccines will cause mass deaths.

    Why? Because they have driven RFK Jr further round the twist than he already was, and he has as a result stripped out American healthcare funding for international vaccine programmes.

    New example of chaos theory: man invents successful vaccine, millions of people die from avoidable diseases.
    The majority of posts on X in reply to this news were from anti-vaxxers denouncing it as lies...

    And MD Anderson has a good case for being the top cancer treatment center in the US, possibly the world.
    And Reform UK will put the anti-vaxxers in office, as Trump has.
    If Labour are a bunch of unrealistic fantasists, Reform make them look like absolute amateurs in that respect.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443
    This polling is completely pointless. The amount of people who actually know what taxes and rates are applied to gambling will be sub 2%.

    At best it indicates 43% are honest, and 57% happy to pontificate on any old crap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,659
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    And the outright lying continues. From the BBC:

    "Responding to the figures, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the government would "never play fast and loose with the public finances".

    He reiterated the government's aim of bringing down borrowing, to be rid of "costly debt interest, instead putting that money into our NHS, schools and police"."

    So, how, exactly, does "bringing down" borrowing (which is, of course, going up) "get rid" of debt interest?

    The cost of that debt interest is rising very fast, £9.7bn in debt interest in September, which was up by £3.8bn from the same month last year. It will continue to increase as we roll over the "free" money borrowed at very low rates after 2008 to current rates (and which so many people criticised the government of not taking even more advantage of). It is the largest single element driving increased borrowing and it will be so over the next decade at least. The only way to "get rid" of it is to pay it back.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,396

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    The issue is that we had a massive *structural* deficit post Brown. Simplifying massively he believes the tax levels from financial services would continue at that level for ever and so spent to the max rather than being prudent.

    When they were proven to be a mirage we had something like a 10% of GDP structural deficit (ie excluding the impact of normal fiscal cycles). That’s just not sustainable
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    algarkirk said:

    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.

    It is not that simple. There are an awful lot of anti-gamblers who see high street betting shops and online casinos as blights on their communities and a menace to society. For them, raising taxes is not about raising money, it is about ending gambling. Like fags.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,667

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
    Not really. There are some unscrupulous advises running people around telling them to do this and costing the taxpayer - you and me - 10s of millions.

    It may be legal but it’s unethical
    I wasn’t judging the morality etc as amusing, it just seemed quite ridiculous as the accompanying photo to the article was of rows of plastic tubs containing the snails in some west end office block. The thought of snails of all things being the secret to a tax dodge is unexpected and therefore amused me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452

    The Exact Moment When Bill Clinton Knew He Won the Presidency
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Z8_JLWd80Mw

    A 50-seconds video. The claim is that in a debate, President GHW Bush, while being questioned, looked at his watch. Those who saw it gave Clinton the win, whereas listeners lent to Bush.

    It parallels the well-known finding in JFK/Nixon where radio listeners thought Nixon won but television viewers gave the verdict to Kennedy, who won the election.

    Nixon sweated heavily in the debate. JFK didn't. TV viewers could see this.
    Yes, that is the parallel with Bush's body language. You had to see it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,396
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
    Not really. There are some unscrupulous advises running people around telling them to do this and costing the taxpayer - you and me - 10s of millions.

    It may be legal but it’s unethical
    I wasn’t judging the morality etc as amusing, it just seemed quite ridiculous as the accompanying photo to the article was of rows of plastic tubs containing the snails in some west end office block. The thought of snails of all things being the secret to a tax dodge is unexpected and therefore amused me.
    The courts ruled it was tax evasion in 2021…

    Each time they do the media runs stories saying “isn’t this funny” and a bunch of muppets thinks it’s actually a good idea…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9904dz73pyo.amp
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,357
    Senator Wyden has been investigating JP Morgan's dealings with Epstein.
    In the middle of the story is this:

    https://x.com/RonWyden/status/1980317836934513051
    ...Here’s the other big problem: Treasury Secretary Bessent is sitting on a massive Epstein file containing thousands more bank documents that would help us continue to follow the money through his sex trafficking ring...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,387
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    In 2007 the economy was absolutely booming, yet the government was still spending more than it was collecting in taxes.

    It should have been banking the taxes from the bankers’ bonuses and saving them for a rainy day.

    Then it didn’t rain but it poured, and the crappy finances made the recession and the recovery from it much worse than otherwise would have been the case.
    No, in 2007 the UK was in the last phase of a debt fuelled consumption bubble.

    There certainly wasn't anything 'booming' in production and investment.

    The UK economy was due for a recession around 2000 - instead Brown kept pumping in the borrowed money to keep consumption and house prices rising and to realise his own political ambitions.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,842

    algarkirk said:

    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.

    It is not that simple. There are an awful lot of anti-gamblers who see high street betting shops and online casinos as blights on their communities and a menace to society. For them, raising taxes is not about raising money, it is about ending gambling. Like fags.
    I think Michael Gove was talking recently about the importance of the high street to voters, the feeling that empty shops and gambling shops show country is in decline even if broader economy has a different picture
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443
    edited 7:59AM
    rkrkrk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.

    It is not that simple. There are an awful lot of anti-gamblers who see high street betting shops and online casinos as blights on their communities and a menace to society. For them, raising taxes is not about raising money, it is about ending gambling. Like fags.
    I think Michael Gove was talking recently about the importance of the high street to voters, the feeling that empty shops and gambling shops show country is in decline even if broader economy has a different picture
    That will particularly resonate with your older Reform voter. Partly as their high streets are much worse than the LD's naice high streets or even the bigger city shopping areas run by Labour. But also as the changes to the high street will be bigger and more sustained for them, and they are less invested in the invisible cyber economy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,021
    rkrkrk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.

    It is not that simple. There are an awful lot of anti-gamblers who see high street betting shops and online casinos as blights on their communities and a menace to society. For them, raising taxes is not about raising money, it is about ending gambling. Like fags.
    I think Michael Gove was talking recently about the importance of the high street to voters, the feeling that empty shops and gambling shops show country is in decline even if broader economy has a different picture
    Empty shops and more empty shops where gambling shops used to be won't be an improvement.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,272
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
    It was their economic reputation that was destroyed not the economy, and Clarke was on the way to rebuilding it.
    By 1996, the PSBR was falling sharply; the UK was in its fifth year of economic growth; inflation was under control.

    You can argue where it all then went wrong, but to claim Brown didn't inherit a robust economy in 1997 is just silly.
    Though as with Lawson, Major and Brown, a lot of the fundamentals were in his favour- in particular, the dependency ratio made it much easier to run a robust economy. And whilst Clarke did a lot of the right things, he's also a bit guilty of passing the pensions timebomb onto his sucessors, just like the others.

    Retired people are expensive to look after. Even if they are not yet needing expensive healthcare and social care, even if they are funding their retirement out of savings, the lack of tax they used to be paying hits the government on the income side. That's not a moral judgement, just a bit of arithmetic. (Talking of which, has anyone done the maths on how much of the GDP per head stagnation is due to more grey heads not doing very much production now?)

    No, I don't know what the politically acceptable solution to this is.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,234
    Morning all! Whilst we are doing revisionist history its worth looking at what the Tories were saying in the run up to the GFC:

    Revisionists: Brown was overspending, stupidly assuming the city would generate mega money forever
    Tories07: We'll match ever pound of Labour's spending commitments AND inflate the bubble even harder to create cash for tax cuts. And we're sick of the city being tied up in all this red tape. Lets slash it and free the banks up to go even harder.

    In hindsight what Brown/Darling did was stupid. But at the time the Tories offered the alternative of even harder stupid. Lets not stick one side on a pedestal and the other in the gutter - both were in the same gutter with the same policies. The only competition was who could let the city get furthest out of control fastest...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,577
    rkrkrk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Non gamblers don't generally mind higher taxes on someone else. Most gamblers don't have any idea how gambling tax works, and anyway regard gambling as a form of entertainment for which a price is paid, with no question of overall making profits (which will remain untaxed!); any gamblers who make big money regularly will gamble offshore.

    The real question for the CoE is how to keep a decent slice of the whole industry within UK tax system by ensuring it is overall competitive with Abroadland. There is an obvious logical problem about taxing gambling anyway - it automatically affects the odds setter who need a greater margin simply to break even, which if pushed far enough destroys the economic model of legal gambling, encouraging the illegal market. A bit like fags costing £150 for 20.

    It is not that simple. There are an awful lot of anti-gamblers who see high street betting shops and online casinos as blights on their communities and a menace to society. For them, raising taxes is not about raising money, it is about ending gambling. Like fags.
    I think Michael Gove was talking recently about the importance of the high street to voters, the feeling that empty shops and gambling shops show country is in decline even if broader economy has a different picture
    I look forward to Baron Gove of Torry in the city of Aberdeen starting a campaign to resuscitate the windswept zombieland that is Union St, the main street of the aforementioned Aberdeen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,452
    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,272

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
    Not really. There are some unscrupulous advises running people around telling them to do this and costing the taxpayer - you and me - 10s of millions.

    It may be legal but it’s unethical
    I wasn’t judging the morality etc as amusing, it just seemed quite ridiculous as the accompanying photo to the article was of rows of plastic tubs containing the snails in some west end office block. The thought of snails of all things being the secret to a tax dodge is unexpected and therefore amused me.
    The courts ruled it was tax evasion in 2021…

    Each time they do the media runs stories saying “isn’t this funny” and a bunch of muppets thinks it’s actually a good idea…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9904dz73pyo.amp
    Though, once again, a court ruling without an enforcement mechanism doesn't help anyone much. In this case, it's really hard to enforce a ruling against a shell company with no assets.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    It's all no sweat to me either. So more a duocorn perhaps.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,797

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
    It was their economic reputation that was destroyed not the economy, and Clarke was on the way to rebuilding it.
    By 1996, the PSBR was falling sharply; the UK was in its fifth year of economic growth; inflation was under control.

    You can argue where it all then went wrong, but to claim Brown didn't inherit a robust economy in 1997 is just silly.
    Though as with Lawson, Major and Brown, a lot of the fundamentals were in his favour- in particular, the dependency ratio made it much easier to run a robust economy. And whilst Clarke did a lot of the right things, he's also a bit guilty of passing the pensions timebomb onto his sucessors, just like the others.

    Retired people are expensive to look after. Even if they are not yet needing expensive healthcare and social care, even if they are funding their retirement out of savings, the lack of tax they used to be paying hits the government on the income side. That's not a moral judgement, just a bit of arithmetic. (Talking of which, has anyone done the maths on how much of the GDP per head stagnation is due to more grey heads not doing very much production now?)

    No, I don't know what the politically acceptable solution to this is.
    Ahhh… Tax the old as they won’t complain for long.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,387

    Morning all! Whilst we are doing revisionist history its worth looking at what the Tories were saying in the run up to the GFC:

    Revisionists: Brown was overspending, stupidly assuming the city would generate mega money forever
    Tories07: We'll match ever pound of Labour's spending commitments AND inflate the bubble even harder to create cash for tax cuts. And we're sick of the city being tied up in all this red tape. Lets slash it and free the banks up to go even harder.

    In hindsight what Brown/Darling did was stupid. But at the time the Tories offered the alternative of even harder stupid. Lets not stick one side on a pedestal and the other in the gutter - both were in the same gutter with the same policies. The only competition was who could let the city get furthest out of control fastest...

    Indeed, the Notting Hill boys had bought into Brown's 'economic miracle' and were happily planning to spend the promised proceeds.

    George Osborne:

    The Shadow Chancellor who failed to predict a recession which happened.

    The Chancellor who predicted a recession which didn't happen.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    It's all no sweat to me either. So more a duocorn perhaps.
    Maybe a tricorn, as I also agree with him too.

    OTOH my wife is fascinated by it and, like when Alison Hammond is on TV, I just have to bite my lip when it’s on.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    Only because he was following Ken Clarke's spending plans.
    Ah yes, the golden legacy following Conservative economic policy being completely destroyed on Black Wednesday. Not my words – Ken Clarke's.
    It was their economic reputation that was destroyed not the economy, and Clarke was on the way to rebuilding it.
    By 1996, the PSBR was falling sharply; the UK was in its fifth year of economic growth; inflation was under control.

    You can argue where it all then went wrong, but to claim Brown didn't inherit a robust economy in 1997 is just silly.
    Though as with Lawson, Major and Brown, a lot of the fundamentals were in his favour- in particular, the dependency ratio made it much easier to run a robust economy. And whilst Clarke did a lot of the right things, he's also a bit guilty of passing the pensions timebomb onto his sucessors, just like the others.

    Retired people are expensive to look after. Even if they are not yet needing expensive healthcare and social care, even if they are funding their retirement out of savings, the lack of tax they used to be paying hits the government on the income side. That's not a moral judgement, just a bit of arithmetic. (Talking of which, has anyone done the maths on how much of the GDP per head stagnation is due to more grey heads not doing very much production now?)

    No, I don't know what the politically acceptable solution to this is.
    I think it is blame the foreigners and judges, distract the oldies by indulging in as much nostalgia as possible, whilst you and your mates run off with as much cash as you can. Hth.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,577

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    I suppose in the incestuous, inbred world of European royalty, Andrew is bound to have some Hapsburg blood in him.
    (Vienna - geddit?)
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,655

    Morning all! Whilst we are doing revisionist history its worth looking at what the Tories were saying in the run up to the GFC:

    Revisionists: Brown was overspending, stupidly assuming the city would generate mega money forever
    Tories07: We'll match ever pound of Labour's spending commitments AND inflate the bubble even harder to create cash for tax cuts. And we're sick of the city being tied up in all this red tape. Lets slash it and free the banks up to go even harder.

    In hindsight what Brown/Darling did was stupid. But at the time the Tories offered the alternative of even harder stupid. Lets not stick one side on a pedestal and the other in the gutter - both were in the same gutter with the same policies. The only competition was who could let the city get furthest out of control fastest...

    Indeed, the Notting Hill boys had bought into Brown's 'economic miracle' and were happily planning to spend the promised proceeds.

    George Osborne:

    The Shadow Chancellor who failed to predict a recession which happened.

    The Chancellor who predicted a recession which didn't happen.
    So the Brown bust is all the Tories fault ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,387
    Nigelb said:

    Senator Wyden has been investigating JP Morgan's dealings with Epstein.
    In the middle of the story is this:

    https://x.com/RonWyden/status/1980317836934513051
    ...Here’s the other big problem: Treasury Secretary Bessent is sitting on a massive Epstein file containing thousands more bank documents that would help us continue to follow the money through his sex trafficking ring...

    Its interesting that all those who have been affected by the Epstein revelations are British - Maxwell, Andrew, Mandelson, Ferguson.

    Yet there must have been many, many more Americans involved with him.

    Its almost as it information is being supressed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443
    Taz said:

    Morning all! Whilst we are doing revisionist history its worth looking at what the Tories were saying in the run up to the GFC:

    Revisionists: Brown was overspending, stupidly assuming the city would generate mega money forever
    Tories07: We'll match ever pound of Labour's spending commitments AND inflate the bubble even harder to create cash for tax cuts. And we're sick of the city being tied up in all this red tape. Lets slash it and free the banks up to go even harder.

    In hindsight what Brown/Darling did was stupid. But at the time the Tories offered the alternative of even harder stupid. Lets not stick one side on a pedestal and the other in the gutter - both were in the same gutter with the same policies. The only competition was who could let the city get furthest out of control fastest...

    Indeed, the Notting Hill boys had bought into Brown's 'economic miracle' and were happily planning to spend the promised proceeds.

    George Osborne:

    The Shadow Chancellor who failed to predict a recession which happened.

    The Chancellor who predicted a recession which didn't happen.
    So the Brown bust is all the Tories fault ?
    The point is it would have happened regardless. More a human nature or political nature fault.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,947

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    Pedant alert

    He is still Duke of York, he just doesn't want to be called that.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,947

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    Pedant alert

    He is still Duke of York, he just doesn't want to be called that.
    Also....Vienna...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,443

    Taz said:

    Most newspaper front pages splash Prince Andrew, about whom I struggle to care.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c231n2zlpreo

    Clearly many others do, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

    Oh yes. I recognise my position is a unicorn – I genuinely do not care either way about the Royal Family, unlike most of those who use this as cover for republicanism. The prince is no longer a duke. It means nothing to me.
    Pedant alert

    He is still Duke of York, he just doesn't want to be called that.
    Oh the Grand old Duke of York he had 10,000 men, he had some teenage girls as well but he can't remember them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,342
    edited 8:20AM
    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    These facilities still appear to be totally undefended, most of the attacks are made by suicide drones that fly slowly.

    On this point: Recently Ukraine have added electricity grid substations to their target list. When you consider all the different possible targets that exist: oil refineries, power plants, electricity substations, armament factories, ammunition dumps, airbases, army barracks, railway junctions, bridges, etc, it's simply impossible to defend every target.

    This is why the Tomahawk cruise missiles would have been so useful for Ukraine, and so much more useful than additional air defences. Ukraine would have been able to use the Tomahawks to flatten the factories making drones and missiles that are used to attack Ukrainian cities, instead of trying to protect every inch of Ukraine from potential attack (given that Russia also targets civilians).

    Unfortunately Putin's phone call, one way or another, convinced Trump not to supply Tomahawks to Ukraine.
    On the political side, there’s a meeting of European leaders on Friday in London, to discuss the Ukraine situation.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1980286853027655693

    I suspect that Tomahawks will be high on the agenda, UK does have some of them but only naval launch platforms. There’s a truck-based launcher for them that’s recently been tested in the US, and is now for sale. There’s also the German air-launched Taurus missile, which carries similar firepower and is currently being installed on Gripen jets for the Swedish Air Force.

    Sadly I still think that Trump still thinks he can get Putin on side to end the war, and is mistaken in that view. The latest set of Russian demands were a step in the right direction but still totally unacceptable to Ukraine and most of Europe.

    Meanwhile there are serious cracks appearing in the Russian economy, and it’s not impossible that Putin mentioned the use of ‘special’ (nuclear) weapons to Trump when they spoke. Lavrov has mentioned them in passing a few times during this war, but it’s easy to understand how Trump would need to take such a direct threat seriously.
    If I was Ukrainian I'd be asking the Europeans to help to rapidly develop a missile with the capabilities of Tomahawk that Ukraine/Europeans could manufacture without recourse to the US.

    Make America Irrelevant Again.
    That's about it. Yesterday on Ukraine the Latest the team were having quite the rant about the European need to step up and write Trump out of the agenda, rather than hanging in on every word of a man on a random walk.

    I'm with Gandalf on the Ents on this one: "The Ents are about to wake up and find they are strong". If only ...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,262
    "A plurality of voters" can go fuck themselves. Taxing an industry into oblivion is illogical. We are a bad country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,335
    Interesting, though worrying, events in the North Ilford Ghetto around midnight!

    Had to tell off our newly moved-in neighbours from India for setting Divali fireworks off in the street! Then the people opposite, fellow British Asians, also told them off, and our neighbours then had the gall to rush over to start a fight, making verbal threats and swearing!. The people opposite called the police, they came round quite quickly, and they had had a word with the Indians. There is a word for this, and it's called "Indian Fatigue" (try typing into Youtube for example). And I say this as someone born in India!!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,636
    edited 8:24AM

    Nigelb said:

    Senator Wyden has been investigating JP Morgan's dealings with Epstein.
    In the middle of the story is this:

    https://x.com/RonWyden/status/1980317836934513051
    ...Here’s the other big problem: Treasury Secretary Bessent is sitting on a massive Epstein file containing thousands more bank documents that would help us continue to follow the money through his sex trafficking ring...

    Its interesting that all those who have been affected by the Epstein revelations are British - Maxwell, Andrew, Mandelson, Ferguson.

    Yet there must have been many, many more Americans involved with him.

    Its almost as it information is being supressed.
    There might be a Constitutional right to free speech in the US, but that doesn't mean there's a lack of ways to force people to keep schtum if you are rich enough.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,396

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If the general public are anything like me, they haven't a clue what taxes there are on gambling, because they don't gamble. And I frequent PB!

    Good morning, everybody.

    The thing is many people don't like betting shops on the high street so will be happy to see them gone.

    The fact that means people lose their jobs or the unit will be empty for ages afterwards are secondary factors which don't enter their minds when they think - high taxes, something I don't like gone...
    It has a knock-on effect on local government income too - loss of business rates, possibly rent.

    But again, that's not the immediate issue. And if it's not all of the shops at once people probably won't notice.
    Business rates shift from the occupier to the landlord if empty - it's why when I've looked at property auctions I've avoided what looked like very decent commercial property deals, the downside is painful...

    Now longer term most business rates are based on achieved rents but reductions take 2-5 years to feed through into business rates
    I half read an article last week about landlords setting up “snail farms” in unoccupied buildings as they were exempt from the business rates due to some agricultural tax exemption. Quite an amusing dodge.
    Not really. There are some unscrupulous advises running people around telling them to do this and costing the taxpayer - you and me - 10s of millions.

    It may be legal but it’s unethical
    I wasn’t judging the morality etc as amusing, it just seemed quite ridiculous as the accompanying photo to the article was of rows of plastic tubs containing the snails in some west end office block. The thought of snails of all things being the secret to a tax dodge is unexpected and therefore amused me.
    The courts ruled it was tax evasion in 2021…

    Each time they do the media runs stories saying “isn’t this funny” and a bunch of muppets thinks it’s actually a good idea…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9904dz73pyo.amp
    Though, once again, a court ruling without an enforcement mechanism doesn't help anyone much. In this case, it's really hard to enforce a ruling against a shell company with no assets.
    Put a lien on the property
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,656
    New Oxford Union President loses a vote of confidence before he even takes office.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/21/george-abaraonye-oxford-union-president-charlie-kirk/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,711

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    So the government is borrowing £20bn in a month, and £100bn in the first six months, that latter figure 13% higher year-on-year.

    Err, I think it’s fair to say the public finances are totally Donald Ducked at this point.

    Rachel needs to find £50bn of tax rises and £50bn of spending cuts this year, as an absolute minimum, and that’s still only half way to fixing the problem. At this stage in the economic cycle govt should be close to running a surplus.

    Should it? Running a surplus is rare enough to be noteworthy.
    Yes! Yes we should.

    Half the problem the country faces is that it’s never recovered from Brown turning on the taps after the 2001 election, which made the 2008-9 recession much worse than it should have been, and it was just about back to level when the pandemic hit, and now appears to be getting worse rather than better.
    Even if you are right that Brown overspent, it had sod all to do with the GFC; it neither caused nor aggravated it. And of course, Gordon Brown was the last Chancellor actually to run a surplus.
    The issue is that we had a massive *structural* deficit post Brown. Simplifying massively he believes the tax levels from financial services would continue at that level for ever and so spent to the max rather than being prudent.

    When they were proven to be a mirage we had something like a 10% of GDP structural deficit (ie excluding the impact of normal fiscal cycles). That’s just not sustainable
    Indeed. There was even. Concern that the time taken to form the Coalition government would cause a borrowing crisis.

    If Brown had been running a 4% surplus (say) then the GFC would have wiped that out, maybe put us into mild deficit. And we would have had less debt. There would have been scope for some borrowing to be counter cyclic - rather than cuts.

    Note that the Labour plan was more cuts than Osborne.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,342
    I had not spotted that Mr Tice & Isobel have been schmoozing Osborne's Oligarch (and Mandelson's):

    The Russian oligarch Vladimir Chernukhin and his wife, Lubov, have long been known for their generous support for the Conservative Party. Since 2012 Lubov has given the party at least £2.1 million, as well as an individual gift to former home secretary Priti Patel of a further £70,000 to fund her bid for the party leadership last year.

    But these are uncertain times, and now, UnHerd can reveal, the Chernukhins are cultivating new political friends. Over two days in the first week of August, at their turreted villa with a stunning view of the Mediterranean at Cap d’Antibes, they hosted Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice along with his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott.

    They had dinner à quatre at the Michelin-starred restaurant at the Grand-Hotel du Cap-Ferrat; Tice told me the meal was “very good”.

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/richard-tice-holidays-with-russian-oligarch-on-riviera/

    The presenting story is that it was not declared until the day after he was asked about it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,711

    Morning all! Whilst we are doing revisionist history its worth looking at what the Tories were saying in the run up to the GFC:

    Revisionists: Brown was overspending, stupidly assuming the city would generate mega money forever
    Tories07: We'll match ever pound of Labour's spending commitments AND inflate the bubble even harder to create cash for tax cuts. And we're sick of the city being tied up in all this red tape. Lets slash it and free the banks up to go even harder.

    In hindsight what Brown/Darling did was stupid. But at the time the Tories offered the alternative of even harder stupid. Lets not stick one side on a pedestal and the other in the gutter - both were in the same gutter with the same policies. The only competition was who could let the city get furthest out of control fastest...

    It’s not revisionism to learn lessons from the past.

    The lesson was (and is) to try and run a surplus in the boom times.

    Winter is coming.
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