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The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402

    Re the second question - there isn't an option about the government keeping its spending promises.

    Is it assumed that government spending can only ever increase ?

    If ever = next 2 decades then should be. Demographics.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,577

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    The first link I found, only for data since 2019, shows Britain outperforming France and Japan. The graph makes the comparison with some of the other countries less clear.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-gdp-per-capita-by-g7-country-2019-2029f/

    You'll appreciate the title, though Biden was President for most of that period, so I'm not sure how it fits your thesis that a war on woke is necessary to rescue the economy.
    So the UK is predicted to have the second highest GDP per capita in the G7 in 2029.

    Yet we're regularly treated to claims that Poland is about to overtake the UK on GDP per capita.
    I think the defect with the data that I linked to is that it's in nominal $. I suspect that Britain does worse in PPP terms, but haven't yet found the data to confirm that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    edited October 17

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he is “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,371
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    The first link I found, only for data since 2019, shows Britain outperforming France and Japan. The graph makes the comparison with some of the other countries less clear.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-gdp-per-capita-by-g7-country-2019-2029f/

    You'll appreciate the title, though Biden was President for most of that period, so I'm not sure how it fits your thesis that a war on woke is necessary to rescue the economy.
    So the UK is predicted to have the second highest GDP per capita in the G7 in 2029.

    Yet we're regularly treated to claims that Poland is about to overtake the UK on GDP per capita.
    The predictions are total bullshit

    From 2025 it has British gdp per capita growth suddenly accelerating away from everyone else bar the USA. Why? How? Where’s this sudden growth spurt coming from? Is there any sign of it under Skyr and Tiny Tears? Nope

    It’s piffle
    Very probably.

    But its perhaps also as probable that the other G7 countries aren't going to see their GDP per capita increase as much as predicted either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,801
    edited October 17
    MattW said:

    A news story which is not breaking through in the UK, and I can't judge yet.

    GAFCON, which is an "alternative Anglican Communion" lead by Nigerian and other Bishops, has put out a declaration about walking away from Canterbury, and breaking the Anglican Communion. They are making it mainly around gay relationships, and possibly a female Archbishop who is willing to accept them. It is framed around "we are the Anglican Communion now".

    There are some strange things about it, such as it having been announced now, when the new ABC is not due to be enthroned until 2026, and it coming from an Archbishop in Nigeria. The reaction is due to a position that does not exist yet.

    There are clearly lots of power politics happening. I'm seeing "Great Schism" type reports from non-denominational sources in places like the USA and Sydney, and not a lot from elsewhere.

    A brief report: https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/sarah-mullally-s-election-to-archbishop-of-canterbury-described-as-devastating

    Who cares, it is the Church of England not the Church of Nigeria. Given same sex relationships are illegal in Nigeria they can't dictate to the English established church of a nation where same sex marriage is illegal. If they are so misogynist they won't accept a female Archbishop that can be ignored too.

    In any case the Anglican communion is just a loose relationship of churches of BCP heritage. Even the Archbishop's role as first amongst equals is likely to be replaced by its leadership rotating amongst Anglican Archbishops globally. Anglicans are not Roman
    Catholics where what the Pope,
    Vatican and Holy See says
    goes for Roman Catholics globally.

    Even if GAFCON went the
    Anglican communion would
    also still have most western Anglican churches and South Africa etc
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,956

    HYUFD said:

    Voters may want the Chancellor to increase borrowing rather than tax but as Truss found out that is not an option the markets will accept.

    Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too

    The income tax personal allowance will have to be increased, in line with the increase in OA pension.
    And retaining a moderate level for the bank interest tax free allowance, to reduce the numbers of people having to deal with taxed income of a few score pounds. Either that or a very streamlined operation for PAYE on state pension, getting DWP under control from that respect.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,371
    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    There's always another level of rich above you.

    As the Texan oilman discovered when he met Kerry Packer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    The first link I found, only for data since 2019, shows Britain outperforming France and Japan. The graph makes the comparison with some of the other countries less clear.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-gdp-per-capita-by-g7-country-2019-2029f/

    You'll appreciate the title, though Biden was President for most of that period, so I'm not sure how it fits your thesis that a war on woke is necessary to rescue the economy.
    So the UK is predicted to have the second highest GDP per capita in the G7 in 2029.

    Yet we're regularly treated to claims that Poland is about to overtake the UK on GDP per capita.
    The predictions are total bullshit

    From 2025 it has British gdp per capita growth suddenly accelerating away from everyone else bar the USA. Why? How? Where’s this sudden growth spurt coming from? Is there any sign of it under Skyr and Tiny Tears? Nope

    It’s piffle
    Very probably.

    But its perhaps also as probable that the other G7 countries aren't going to see their GDP per capita increase as much as predicted either.
    To be honest, with the technological changes coming our way, plus febrile geopolitics, this is one of the hardest periods in all history in which to predict future growth rates

    It is possible growth will explode and we will see 20% growth a year in mature economies. Or we might all die
  • Good morning

    We are used to the narrative that these are the conservatives end days, but looking at the polling, the locals, and the narrative labour look in equally the same position if not worse

    I expect some labour supporters are getting that sinking feeling and dismay about how far they have fallen, much as conservatives did on GE24 day
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    Piece in the FT asking "Are we earning enough?" - a question for middle class types about whether enough is enough when even chicken and sides is £15 in Nandos: https://www.ft.com/content/eef94ba2-eaab-4507-a1c0-4ad1d997bd4c

    I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.

    If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.

    Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
    Messier than that, though.

    Quite a lot of people- let's be honest, quite a lot of us, here- have more cash than we really know what to do with. Savings ratios are going up, probably not in a good way. Plenty more don't, but that's Two Nations for you.
    Except that a lot of us are - I don't doubt - saving for care in our old age. Which is a Good Thing according to PBwisdom.

    And when you get older, it's bad to have too much of one's savings in equities lest they do a nose-dive just when one needs the cash. Which is Sensible according to universal wisdom.

    In fact, right now I'm mulling whether it is a good to use any more of my ISA allowance on equities, given the news.

    Don't know how you can resolve the conflict ...

    "it's bad to have too much of one's savings in equities lest they do a nose-dive just when one needs the cash"

    Whilst it is obviously true it is bad to have "too much" in equities by definition, the thinking around that was mostly historically driven by the pre 2015 landscape where people had to buy an annuity by 75.

    It is far less an issue when you can manage this yourself via gradual drawdown. The benefits of staying heavily in equities may well outweigh the risks for many nowadays.
    Sure, and thanks for the point.

    But the annuity issue is relevant to care, surely? One way of dealing with the cost of care (on top of any pre-existing pension etc.) is to buy an annuity at the time of need. Friend's mother fell significantly ill and had to move into a care home - the family obtained an annuity based on the medical prognosis. Happily she survived for much longer than expected, but that was just luck. Could have been the other way round. The main thing was that the family didn't need to worry about running out of money.
    They do have their place and are right for some. But as with most financial products there is a high margin built in and DIY drawdown is imo typically better, reflected in people taking an annuity dropping from 90% to 10% over the last decade. And if you want one, you don't have to take it by a specific age so don't have to avoid a specific equity crash time point.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,082
    Foss said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    And very few people are willing to accept that they are useless failures. Everyone wants to view themselves as normal.
    I am happy to accept being a useless failure but we try, you know
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402
    Foss said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    And very few people are willing to accept that they are useless failures. Everyone wants to view themselves as normal.
    Even the Trusster, Williamson and Andy think they have been hard done by.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,956

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    Piece in the FT asking "Are we earning enough?" - a question for middle class types about whether enough is enough when even chicken and sides is £15 in Nandos: https://www.ft.com/content/eef94ba2-eaab-4507-a1c0-4ad1d997bd4c

    I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.

    If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.

    Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
    Messier than that, though.

    Quite a lot of people- let's be honest, quite a lot of us, here- have more cash than we really know what to do with. Savings ratios are going up, probably not in a good way. Plenty more don't, but that's Two Nations for you.
    Except that a lot of us are - I don't doubt - saving for care in our old age. Which is a Good Thing according to PBwisdom.

    And when you get older, it's bad to have too much of one's savings in equities lest they do a nose-dive just when one needs the cash. Which is Sensible according to universal wisdom.

    In fact, right now I'm mulling whether it is a good to use any more of my ISA allowance on equities, given the news.

    Don't know how you can resolve the conflict ...

    "it's bad to have too much of one's savings in equities lest they do a nose-dive just when one needs the cash"

    Whilst it is obviously true it is bad to have "too much" in equities by definition, the thinking around that was mostly historically driven by the pre 2015 landscape where people had to buy an annuity by 75.

    It is far less an issue when you can manage this yourself via gradual drawdown. The benefits of staying heavily in equities may well outweigh the risks for many nowadays.
    Sure, and thanks for the point.

    But the annuity issue is relevant to care, surely? One way of dealing with the cost of care (on top of any pre-existing pension etc.) is to buy an annuity at the time of need. Friend's mother fell significantly ill and had to move into a care home - the family obtained an annuity based on the medical prognosis. Happily she survived for much longer than expected, but that was just luck. Could have been the other way round. The main thing was that the family didn't need to worry about running out of money.
    They do have their place and are right for some. But as with most financial products there is a high margin built in and DIY drawdown is imo typically better, reflected in people taking an annuity dropping from 90% to 10% over the last decade. And if you want one, you don't have to take it by a specific age so don't have to avoid a specific equity crash time point.
    Thanks. In this case the planets were favourable - and one of the family is a financial advisor. So I can well believe that otherts might not be so lucky.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,753
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
  • HYUFD said:

    Voters may want the Chancellor to increase borrowing rather than tax but as Truss found out that is not an option the markets will accept.

    Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too

    IHT is in her sights
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,613

    Foss said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    And very few people are willing to accept that they are useless failures. Everyone wants to view themselves as normal.
    I am happy to accept being a useless failure but we try, you know
    You're "a useless failure"

    You lucky, luck bar steward.

    {Prybars open a double case of Chateau de Chasseliers, sabres top off the first magnum}

    When I 'twere youngun. we drrrrrrrrreamed of being "a useless failure"

    Like Charlie Prince of CitiGroup. Who took down the bank and nearly the world economy. His compensation, for being fired for being a useless failure, amounted to just $91million dollars.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,002
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    Crassus was mega-rich.

    In Athens, the trierarchs were 300 of the richest citizens, each financially responsible for funding a trireme.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    The first link I found, only for data since 2019, shows Britain outperforming France and Japan. The graph makes the comparison with some of the other countries less clear.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-gdp-per-capita-by-g7-country-2019-2029f/

    You'll appreciate the title, though Biden was President for most of that period, so I'm not sure how it fits your thesis that a war on woke is necessary to rescue the economy.
    So the UK is predicted to have the second highest GDP per capita in the G7 in 2029.

    Yet we're regularly treated to claims that Poland is about to overtake the UK on GDP per capita.
    The predictions are total bullshit

    From 2025 it has British gdp per capita growth suddenly accelerating away from everyone else bar the USA. Why? How? Where’s this sudden growth spurt coming from? Is there any sign of it under Skyr and Tiny Tears? Nope

    It’s piffle
    Very probably.

    But its perhaps also as probable that the other G7 countries aren't going to see their GDP per capita increase as much as predicted either.
    To be honest, with the technological changes coming our way, plus febrile geopolitics, this is one of the hardest periods in all history in which to predict future growth rates

    It is possible growth will explode and we will see 20% growth a year in mature economies. Or we might all die
    Isn't the latter closer to a certainty ?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,270
    Nigelb said:

    I suspect this is because he thinks the order to execute alleged drug smugglers by airstrike (on what appress to be very thin evidence) is blatantly illegal.
    The US military swears an oath to the constitution, not the president.

    A commander quitting mid operation like this is extremely unusual.

    The U.S. military commander overseeing the escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea is said to be stepping down.
    https://x.com/nytimes/status/1978921428163404253

    Compare that with UK armed forces skills -
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdr6rvzv6j1o&ved=2ahUKEwiLi87L8KqQAxWMQkEAHbjiKhcQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw04sj9m_yUoY_TSusDsGRjO
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,956
    And Friday's trains stuff-put-up-on-walls news, following that clock yesterday:

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2025/oct/17/blue-plaque-thomas-the-tank-engine-creator-rev-w-awdry-home

    "The unveiling ceremony at Awdry’s former home, named Sodor after the fictional island his anthropomorphic engines inhabited, also forms part of this year’s Railway 200 celebrations.

    Awdry was working as a curate in Kings Norton, Birmingham, when the first book in the series, The Three Railway Engines, was published in 1945. On his retirement in 1965, Awdry and his family moved to Stroud, where he continued developing the world of Sodor.

    Chambers said Awdry’s requirements for the house included a room for his study and another to host a model railway."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,895

    Foss said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    And very few people are willing to accept that they are useless failures. Everyone wants to view themselves as normal.
    I am happy to accept being a useless failure but we try, you know
    I';ve certainly had my failures. They come back sometimes in the small hours to haunt me.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,638
    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Isn’t it Mansa Musa, ruler of Mali who basically controlled most of the world’s gold supply?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,895

    Good morning

    We are used to the narrative that these are the conservatives end days, but looking at the polling, the locals, and the narrative labour look in equally the same position if not worse

    I expect some labour supporters are getting that sinking feeling and dismay about how far they have fallen, much as conservatives did on GE24 day


    And, with the odd exception still seem to be experiencing in the locals. Mark Pack, of the LibDems, seems quite chipper.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    edited October 17
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Isn’t it Mansa Musa, ruler of Mali who basically controlled most of the world’s gold supply?
    That’s the other name mentioned, yes

    However Google estimates his wealth at about $400bn (I’ve no idea how) and right now Elon is close to $500bn

    It is possible Elon Musk is the richest person who has ever existed, not just the richest man alive today
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,891

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    Piece in the FT asking "Are we earning enough?" - a question for middle class types about whether enough is enough when even chicken and sides is £15 in Nandos: https://www.ft.com/content/eef94ba2-eaab-4507-a1c0-4ad1d997bd4c

    I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.

    If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.

    Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
    Messier than that, though.

    Quite a lot of people- let's be honest, quite a lot of us, here- have more cash than we really know what to do with. Savings ratios are going up, probably not in a good way. Plenty more don't, but that's Two Nations for you.
    An interesting FT piece (full link): http://bit.ly/48A08jH

    (Am I allowed to post these - this is an indirect archive link?)

    People here are free to give 5% or 10% of their income to good causes, ideally local where they have most impact, of course.

    Or we could balance up the tax system better.

    No, anything that links to websites like archive.is which allows people to bypass paywalls is a no no.

    News organisations are getting very annoyed at websites that rob them of their income.
    Don't the news organisations get to choose whether sites like archive.is are able to scrape their content or not? I believe some don't allow it.

    If they choose to allow it, then they can hardly complain that it happens.
    They send cease and desist letters which get ignored.

    Most serious legal letter OGH ever received was from The Times when Plato was copying and pasting dozens of entire articles from behind the paywall
    Fun fact, Plato turned to posting hundreds of links which is why I subscribed to the Telegraph in order follow them, which costs more than £1 a day. It went up a lot this year.
    If you subscribe then threaten to cancel when renewal comes up they will drop the price by up to 75%. In fact I did that with their puzzles service as I like their crossword and they dropped the price from £50/year to £10/year iirc.

    But keep that between us will you?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,753
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
    Economic historians try to estimate GDP in past societies, by way of calculating the value of corn production.

    One estimate I read gives a GDP per head of $1200 per head, in the Roman Empire, in the mid second century. The author gave an average income of $12m per household, for a senatorial family, and $900,000 per household, for a knightly family. But, the household sizes of those two groups would be far larger than those of the average peasant, as they would have loads of slaves and freedmen.

    Those incomes would be dwarfed by the income of the emperors, but many State functions were being provided by the emperors out of that income.

    Relative to average incomes, I'd make a guess that perhaps the richest men in ancient history were Alexander the Great (who acquired staggering amounts of gold bullion when he conquered Persia), Crassus, Pompey, Caesar, and Augustus.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,833
    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    Piece in the FT asking "Are we earning enough?" - a question for middle class types about whether enough is enough when even chicken and sides is £15 in Nandos: https://www.ft.com/content/eef94ba2-eaab-4507-a1c0-4ad1d997bd4c

    I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.

    If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.

    Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
    Messier than that, though.

    Quite a lot of people- let's be honest, quite a lot of us, here- have more cash than we really know what to do with. Savings ratios are going up, probably not in a good way. Plenty more don't, but that's Two Nations for you.
    An interesting FT piece (full link): http://bit.ly/48A08jH

    (Am I allowed to post these - this is an indirect archive link?)

    People here are free to give 5% or 10% of their income to good causes, ideally local where they have most impact, of course.

    Or we could balance up the tax system better.

    No, anything that links to websites like archive.is which allows people to bypass paywalls is a no no.

    News organisations are getting very annoyed at websites that rob them of their income.
    Don't the news organisations get to choose whether sites like archive.is are able to scrape their content or not? I believe some don't allow it.

    If they choose to allow it, then they can hardly complain that it happens.
    They send cease and desist letters which get ignored.

    Most serious legal letter OGH ever received was from The Times when Plato was copying and pasting dozens of entire articles from behind the paywall
    Fun fact, Plato turned to posting hundreds of links which is why I subscribed to the Telegraph in order follow them, which costs more than £1 a day. It went up a lot this year.
    If you subscribe then threaten to cancel when renewal comes up they will drop the price by up to 75%. In fact I did that with their puzzles service as I like their crossword and they dropped the price from £50/year to £10/year iirc.

    But keep that between us will you?

    Indy premium is £1 a month for 6 months. Great value
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,753

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    Crassus was mega-rich.

    In Athens, the trierarchs were 300 of the richest citizens, each financially responsible for funding a trireme.
    A costly honour, but one that was sought after. And, a trierarch had to command the warship, too.

    The gap in wealth, between rich and poor in the ancient world, was absolutely staggering, but the rich did put their money where their mouths were, when it came to going to war. There was no question of just sending the poor off to fight and die. You had to fight at their head.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,895
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
    Economic historians try to estimate GDP in past societies, by way of calculating the value of corn production.

    One estimate I read gives a GDP per head of $1200 per head, in the Roman Empire, in the mid second century. The author gave an average income of $12m per household, for a senatorial family, and $900,000 per household, for a knightly family. But, the household sizes of those two groups would be far larger than those of the average peasant, as they would have loads of slaves and freedmen.

    Those incomes would be dwarfed by the income of the emperors, but many State functions were being provided by the emperors out of that income.

    Relative to average incomes, I'd make a guess that perhaps the richest men in ancient history were Alexander the Great (who acquired staggering amounts of gold bullion when he conquered Persia), Crassus, Pompey, Caesar, and Augustus.
    What about Chinese emperors? Or the likes of Timur or Ghengis Khan?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    If Elon Musk really is the richest human in history that reflects well on modernity, capitalism and the USA

    Because he hasn’t acquired that wealth via vulgar conquest and killing people, or just lucking out with natural resources, he’s earned it almost from scratch by doing and creating amazing things, and advancing the frontier of humanity, all while supporting excellent political causes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,801
    Leon said:

    If Elon Musk really is the richest human in history that reflects well on modernity, capitalism and the USA

    Because he hasn’t acquired that wealth via vulgar conquest and killing people, or just lucking out with natural resources, he’s earned it almost from scratch by doing and creating amazing things, and advancing the frontier of humanity, all while supporting excellent political causes

    ..Like Tommy Robinson's legal bills?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,801
    edited October 17

    HYUFD said:

    Voters may want the Chancellor to increase borrowing rather than tax but as Truss found out that is not an option the markets will accept.

    Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too

    IHT is in her sights
    I doubt she would be that stupid, if she is Labour will be 3rd or even 4th in most polls soon
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
    Economic historians try to estimate GDP in past societies, by way of calculating the value of corn production.

    One estimate I read gives a GDP per head of $1200 per head, in the Roman Empire, in the mid second century. The author gave an average income of $12m per household, for a senatorial family, and $900,000 per household, for a knightly family. But, the household sizes of those two groups would be far larger than those of the average peasant, as they would have loads of slaves and freedmen.

    Those incomes would be dwarfed by the income of the emperors, but many State functions were being provided by the emperors out of that income.

    Relative to average incomes, I'd make a guess that perhaps the richest men in ancient history were Alexander the Great (who acquired staggering amounts of gold bullion when he conquered Persia), Crassus, Pompey, Caesar, and Augustus.
    What about Chinese emperors? Or the likes of Timur or Ghengis Khan?
    The Mughal emperors must have been worth a bob or two. Taj Mahals don’t come cheap
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,908
    edited October 17
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Isn’t it Mansa Musa, ruler of Mali who basically controlled most of the world’s gold supply?
    That’s the other name mentioned, yes

    However Google estimates his wealth at about $400bn (I’ve no idea how) and right now Elon is close to $500bn

    It is possible Elon Musk is the richest person who has ever existed, not just the richest man alive today
    Behind every great fortune there lies a great crime.

    Meanwhile the coming market "correction" will roll the dice quite a bit, and Facist grifter Musk may find his debt ridden, largely unprofitable Imperium fades faster than one of Leondarmus' predictions.

    The US regional banks seem to be the ones holding the private credit ticking parcel and its looking very much like a 1929 style "mountain of debt on a mole hill of actual assets". The market movements today are extremely ominous, and if continued, then we have a very bleak time ahead. Trump threw the baby out with the bath water and the devaluation of the US Dollar premium may not be far away now.

    For a while, it is easy to make things look OK when you cheat, but sooner or later the truth will demand the price of lies. That day looks like it is upon us. The Bond market doesn't give a shit what you think, it will trade on reality, as it has always done... eventually.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,801
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he is “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    I would say anyone with wealth over £1 million is rich to most people.

    Anyone with wealth over £100 million is super rich and billionaires are yes the truly rich beyond question but even billionaires like Musk and Gates and Bezos and Ellison are several leagues above most billionaires
  • eekeek Posts: 31,527
    You may remember that everytime I've seen an AI data centre announcement my very first question is where will the energy come from - well it's finally dawned on the Government that it's an issue https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/17/in_britain_talk_is_cheap/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    If Elon Musk really is the richest human in history that reflects well on modernity, capitalism and the USA

    Because he hasn’t acquired that wealth via vulgar conquest and killing people, or just lucking out with natural resources, he’s earned it almost from scratch by doing and creating amazing things, and advancing the frontier of humanity, all while supporting excellent political causes

    ..Like Tommy Robinson's legal bills?
    That is an excellent cause for ethno-nationalists or, as we used to know them as, racists, yes.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,833
    Well done to Ayoub and all those who successfully campaigned for Maccabi Tel Aviv fans to be barred from attending the match at Aston Villa!

    No business as usual with a genocidal state.

    Boycott, divest, sanction!


    https://x.com/thisisyourparty/status/1978938261205602414?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • isamisam Posts: 42,833
    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • isamisam Posts: 42,833
    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    edited October 17
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters may want the Chancellor to increase borrowing rather than tax but as Truss found out that is not an option the markets will accept.

    Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too

    IHT is in her sights
    I doubt she would be that stupid, if she is Labour will be 3rd or even 4th in most polls soon
    She has no good options. She’s fucked the economy with terrible decisions and now she has to raise taxes in a way which will be hideously unpopular - and breaking her promise; it’s also likely she will chase even more rich people away from London - the exodus is already large (the telegraph has been writing about it all week)

    That screws the london economy and thus the uk economy and also shrinks our tax base so she will probably make everything worse, again, and end up with less tax than before. So she will have to come back for more taxes. And so on

    We are in a doom loop. We are New York City in the 1970s
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    I agree. It’s the moment when it becomes undeniable that multiculturalism and mass immigration is a calamitous failure - and a danger to us all
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,374
    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Presumably, he’ll now be turning his attention to ensuring that Millwall fans are prevented from travelling to see their team?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,638
    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Let’s hope Trump can help. He’s done the easy part with a ceasefire in Gaza now he has to deal with the real victims of what’s gone on there, British people living in Britain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,002
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters may want the Chancellor to increase borrowing rather than tax but as Truss found out that is not an option the markets will accept.

    Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too

    IHT is in her sights
    I doubt she would be that stupid, if she is Labour will be 3rd or even 4th in most polls soon
    She has no good options. She’s fucked the economy with terrible decisions and now she has to raise taxes in a way which will be hideously unpopular - and breaking her promise; it’s also likely she will chase even more rich people away from London - the exodus is already large (the telegraph has been writing about it all week)

    That screws the london economy and thus the uk economy and also shrinks our tax base so she will probably make everything worse, again, and end up with less tax than before. So she will have to come back for more taxes. And so on

    We are in a doom loop. We are New York City in the 1970s
    Reeves is also hamstrung by childlike Labour MPs who are aghast at the notion of actually trying to balance the books and just want to spend money because it makes them, and their supporters, feel all warm and fuzzy.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,345
    Taz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I don't like borrowing money, it makes my teeth itch. Digging yourself into a hole. I have the utmost compassion for individuals who've seen no way forward but to borrow to meet their needs.

    We're in a massive hole as a country and I'd like to see a plan for getting out of it. We present as a wealthy country and we're not.

    Good morning, everybody.

    Good Morning

    You’re right. But until we have politicians prepared to accept the problem and take action we will just drift along until something has to be done.
    My Dad always told me “never a borrower or a lender be”. So I became a banker.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,637

    Good morning

    We are used to the narrative that these are the conservatives end days, but looking at the polling, the locals, and the narrative labour look in equally the same position if not worse

    I expect some labour supporters are getting that sinking feeling and dismay about how far they have fallen, much as conservatives did on GE24 day

    The results from yesterday's by-elections make dismal reading for Labour. Not a glimmer of positivity anywhere.

    Some of my comrades need to wake up to the fact that next May is going to be a bloodbath. "Positive responses on the doorstep" my arse.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522
    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,345
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    Second - and slightly offtopic but this is the situation with social care - it's consuming the budget of every council...

    Edit - removed chart, it showed that in 2011-12 Hampshire had a budget of £715m with £380m or so spent on social care.

    Now it's £1075m of which £875m(ish) is social care.

    So council tax has gone up but there is nothing left to spend on anything else because the Tory party pushed social care spending onto the council budget.

    What even is “social care”? Is this all paying for people to stay in old people’s homes or does it include things like taxis for kids to get to school?
    Always surprising how much we spend on adult social care (rather than old-age). In Scotland care for children comes under the social work budgets typically.

    Basically, a severely disabled person in their 30s, particularly with learning disabilities, costs a fortune to look after. Significantly more than an 80-year old, particularly as older people will be self-funding at least some of their care.
    The reality is if they need 24/7 coverage it often requires 2 staff members at all times - that’s 6 full time staff members plus holiday cover so say a minimum of £200k per year before you even start on housing provision and everything else.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,638
    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,867
    Good morning all. The Fairliered poll shows that 90% of respondents are economically illiterate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,105
    The Jewish population of Birmingham is only 0.1% compared to 0.5% in England as a whole.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,577
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Isn’t it Mansa Musa, ruler of Mali who basically controlled most of the world’s gold supply?
    That’s the other name mentioned, yes

    However Google estimates his wealth at about $400bn (I’ve no idea how) and right now Elon is close to $500bn

    It is possible Elon Musk is the richest person who has ever existed, not just the richest man alive today
    Given the earlier discussion about how richness is relative, the best metric might be how much richer the richest person at any point in time was compared to the second richest person at the same time.

    Musk isn't that rich by this measure - he only recently took back the top spot from Ellison, and their relative positions fluctuate with share prices.

    I'd expect that you would have to go back to antiquity to find the richest person who was relatively the richest compared to their contemporaries.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,135
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
  • TresTres Posts: 3,135

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Isn’t it Mansa Musa, ruler of Mali who basically controlled most of the world’s gold supply?
    That’s the other name mentioned, yes

    However Google estimates his wealth at about $400bn (I’ve no idea how) and right now Elon is close to $500bn

    It is possible Elon Musk is the richest person who has ever existed, not just the richest man alive today
    Given the earlier discussion about how richness is relative, the best metric might be how much richer the richest person at any point in time was compared to the second richest person at the same time.

    Musk isn't that rich by this measure - he only recently took back the top spot from Ellison, and their relative positions fluctuate with share prices.

    I'd expect that you would have to go back to antiquity to find the richest person who was relatively the richest compared to their contemporaries.
    that sounds like an absolutely shite metric
  • My wife and I have just received our postal votes for our local ward election

    Only 2 candidates - conservative and reform

    My wife and I voted conservative without any hesitation whatsoever
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    Actually, looking at the whole clip the guy seems something of an integrationist.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,577
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he is “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    I would say anyone with wealth over £1 million is rich to most people.

    Anyone with wealth over £100 million is super rich and billionaires are yes the truly rich beyond question but even billionaires like Musk and Gates and Bezos and Ellison are several leagues above most billionaires
    £1 million when Thatcher left Number Ten is the equivalent of £2.5 million today, thanks to the magic of inflation.

    Being a millionaire is not what it once was.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    Sir Keir wants to allow the fans to attend.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    edited October 17
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    He literally says in the video - “when the Tel Aviv fans come to Birmingham we will not show them mercy”

    Those are his precise words

    Given that this is about a week after a savage Islamist knife attack on a British synagogue which left Jews dead, how do you think you would feel, if you were a Jewish football fan, listening to a British imam say “we will not show them mercy”?

    Would you feel safe going to that match?

    Obviously not. This is a direct threat. Which is presumably why the police have banned the away fans, they are worried they will be attacked
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,105
    edited October 17

    My wife and I have just received our postal votes for our local ward election

    Only 2 candidates - conservative and reform

    My wife and I voted conservative without any hesitation whatsoever

    I'm surprised there wasn't more choice on offer. Especially in Wales.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,369
    Leon said:

    Google reckons it’s either Elon Musk or Augustus Caesar who apparently owned “all of Egypt”

    Octavian effectively inherited Egypt as Pharaoh and it was the breadbasket of Rome, so fair enough... but if we are including ancient despots, there were rulers of larger countries, including later Roman Emperors.

    The wealth of emperors under the Principate would be difficult to pentangle from the wealth of the State, as they were effectively multiple office holders
  • I really fear for our country following West Midlands disgraceful prohibitation of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending their match at Villa

    Has there ever been such a crass decision by the police effectively saying 'Jews are not welcome here' ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
    Augustus was also worshipped as a god, and founded a dynasty, which gives him something of an edge.

    More admirable is Andrew Carnegie, who gave most of his enormous wealth away.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,933

    My wife and I have just received our postal votes for our local ward election

    Only 2 candidates - conservative and reform

    My wife and I voted conservative without any hesitation whatsoever

    I would do that as well, I'm afraid.
  • Andy_JS said:

    My wife and I have just received our postal votes for our local ward election

    Only 2 candidates - conservative and reform

    My wife and I voted conservative without any hesitation whatsoever

    I'm surprised there wasn't more choice on offer. Especially in Wales.
    Lib Dems used to do very well but they have disappeared almost completely from our ward
  • My wife and I have just received our postal votes for our local ward election

    Only 2 candidates - conservative and reform

    My wife and I voted conservative without any hesitation whatsoever

    I would do that as well, I'm afraid.
    The more the merrier to defeat Farage
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210
    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,833

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Many a true word spoken in attempted jest
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522

    I really fear for our country following West Midlands disgraceful prohibitation of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending their match at Villa

    Has there ever been such a crass decision by the police effectively saying 'Jews are not welcome here' ?

    I agree. But the Maccabi Tel Aviv are hardly shrinking violets so there's bound to be a massive punch up. But we can enjoy both: the punch up and Sir Keir having to take responsibility for it because he overruled the police.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    Actually, looking at the whole clip the guy seems something of an integrationist.
    His attitudes appear somewhat hostile to politicalbetting.
  • dunhamdunham Posts: 34

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    Sir Keir wants to allow the fans to attend.
    Yet another unpopular faux pas by SKS. He would have been better staying silent and not commenting on a minor provincial policing matter. The Macacabi fans would clearly have been unwelcome visitors to Birmingham, and they have a previous history of being violent and disruptive, so it is best for all that they stay away.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210
    The Democrats are, at long last, taking to calling out senile politicians...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5558899-pritzker-stephen-miller-trump-capacity-immigration/
    Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) claimed on Thursday that White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is enabling President Trump amid his crackdown on immigrants without legal status in the U.S.

    “I do think he needs help,” Pritzker said of Trump to Tim Miller, the host of “The Bulwark” podcast. “And I don’t think anybody around him on a day-to-day basis wants to get him any help because they have more power based upon his diminished capacity.”
    Pritzker then brought up Miller, whom he said “clearly is the one pushing the tactics at [Department of Homeland Security], at [Customs and Border Protection], at [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)].”

    “He’s clearly the person that is aiming to have Donald Trump become an authoritarian leader,” Pritzker continued. “And I wish that, you know, people could at least recognize that Stephen Miller is bad for the country, and he is abusing the fact that Donald Trump has diminished capacity.”
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522
    Nigelb said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    Actually, looking at the whole clip the guy seems something of an integrationist.
    His attitudes appear somewhat hostile to politicalbetting.
    Yes, an apologist for bet welching, though only, as far as I understood his abstruse theology, if it involves the IDF.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,237
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,135

    I really fear for our country following West Midlands disgraceful prohibitation of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending their match at Villa

    Has there ever been such a crass decision by the police effectively saying 'Jews are not welcome here' ?

    I agree. But the Maccabi Tel Aviv are hardly shrinking violets so there's bound to be a massive punch up. But we can enjoy both: the punch up and Sir Keir having to take responsibility for it because he overruled the police.
    Their fans hounded an Israeli international - Maharan Radi - out of the club because of his Arab background. They make Millwall fanslook like pussycats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210

    Nigelb said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    Actually, looking at the whole clip the guy seems something of an integrationist.
    His attitudes appear somewhat hostile to politicalbetting.
    Yes, an apologist for bet welching, though only, as far as I understood his abstruse theology, if it involves the IDF.
    I wasn't entirely clear on the principles underlying that, either.
    Or why he single out the "honest Dutchman" ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,522
    dunham said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    Sir Keir wants to allow the fans to attend.
    Yet another unpopular faux pas by SKS. He would have been better staying silent and not commenting on a minor provincial policing matter. The Macacabi fans would clearly have been unwelcome visitors to Birmingham, and they have a previous history of being violent and disruptive, so it is best for all that they stay away.
    They're probably coming now - too much political pressure - so Sir Keir and Kemi will have to take responsibility.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,210
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
    I take no sides on this particular dispute (partly as I don't have much time for football, or understanding of the niceties).
    But the best way to deal with football related violence is (I think ?) already quite well established.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,223
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he was “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    Crassus' view was that you weren't truly rich unless you could recruit and equip a legion, at your own expense.

    Recruiting, arming, paying, and maintaining 5,000 soldiers today? That would cost probably about £1bn annually, in a rich world country.
    It would be fascinating to work out - if it’s possible - the richest man or woman in history

    Elon must be up there

    But then, how do you assess a medieval king in a feudal state who theoretically owns the entire nation?

    Or a Roman emperor like Augustus?
    Corridor Crew did this two weeks ago. They reckon it's Mukesh Ambani. He can afford an army with 1.5 million soldiers

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rrqGtxCjhE (20mins)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,507
    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats are, at long last, taking to calling out senile politicians...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5558899-pritzker-stephen-miller-trump-capacity-immigration/
    Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) claimed on Thursday that White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is enabling President Trump amid his crackdown on immigrants without legal status in the U.S.

    “I do think he needs help,” Pritzker said of Trump to Tim Miller, the host of “The Bulwark” podcast. “And I don’t think anybody around him on a day-to-day basis wants to get him any help because they have more power based upon his diminished capacity.”
    Pritzker then brought up Miller, whom he said “clearly is the one pushing the tactics at [Department of Homeland Security], at [Customs and Border Protection], at [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)].”

    “He’s clearly the person that is aiming to have Donald Trump become an authoritarian leader,” Pritzker continued. “And I wish that, you know, people could at least recognize that Stephen Miller is bad for the country, and he is abusing the fact that Donald Trump has diminished capacity.”

    @GovPressOffice

    Trump has become incredibly unhinged. He is totally divorced from reality and facts — he is mentally and physically in decline.

    https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/1978965916059865241
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats are, at long last, taking to calling out senile politicians...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5558899-pritzker-stephen-miller-trump-capacity-immigration/
    Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) claimed on Thursday that White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is enabling President Trump amid his crackdown on immigrants without legal status in the U.S.

    “I do think he needs help,” Pritzker said of Trump to Tim Miller, the host of “The Bulwark” podcast. “And I don’t think anybody around him on a day-to-day basis wants to get him any help because they have more power based upon his diminished capacity.”
    Pritzker then brought up Miller, whom he said “clearly is the one pushing the tactics at [Department of Homeland Security], at [Customs and Border Protection], at [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)].”

    “He’s clearly the person that is aiming to have Donald Trump become an authoritarian leader,” Pritzker continued. “And I wish that, you know, people could at least recognize that Stephen Miller is bad for the country, and he is abusing the fact that Donald Trump has diminished capacity.”

    @GovPressOffice

    Trump has become incredibly unhinged. He is totally divorced from reality and facts — he is mentally and physically in decline.

    https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/1978965916059865241
    How can we tell?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,577
    edited October 17
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
    I think in both scenarios you can make a case against collective punishment, and for asking the police to follow an intelligence-led approach.

    That's generally been quite successful with football-related violence, so you'd expect that liaising with the Israeli police would be useful.

    And then a few arrests of people who are calling for violence against the visiting football fans, and I think you could go a long way towards heading off any trouble.

    The most important point seems to be that the police haven't banned visiting fans on the basis of the violence they might be guilty of perpetrating, but due to the risk of other people perpetrating violence against them. I've come across this attitude from the police before, of asking victims to modify their behaviour rather than confronting criminals. It's the wrong approach.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,666
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect that in growth of GDP per capita, in recent years, Britain is either at the bottom or is bottom of the G7

    And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised

    And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso

    Piece in the FT asking "Are we earning enough?" - a question for middle class types about whether enough is enough when even chicken and sides is £15 in Nandos: https://www.ft.com/content/eef94ba2-eaab-4507-a1c0-4ad1d997bd4c

    I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.

    If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.

    Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
    Lots of cash on the sidelines though it’s just not evenly distributed. People reluctant to spend.
    WRT the FT article on 'Are We Earning Enough' (ie are the middle classes able to afford to read the FT), a quick point about this and similar data.

    1) For most middle class purposes what counts is household income, not individual salaries

    and, more perplexing

    2) Data including this article and a trillion others fail to make clear in their figures whether the figures are talking about gross pre tax incomes or net post tax incomes.

    (And if so what counts as tax eg council tax, payments off student loans), whether they are taking account of benefits of any sort - millions of working people are on UC and receive child benefit stuff - a subject I am too old to try to understand - and so on.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    edited October 17
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
    That basically happened in Finchley. A bunch of Muslim hooligans drove around Jewish north london saying “fuck the Jews” and “rape their daughters” while waving Palestinian flags

    All charges against them were dropped

    https://x.com/niohberg/status/1805167074383159333?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,753

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
    I think in both scenarios you can make a case against collective punishment, and for asking the police to follow an intelligence-led approach.

    That's generally been quite successful with football-related violence, so you'd expect that liaising with the Israeli police would be useful.

    And then a few arrests of people who are calling for violence against the visiting football fans, and I think you could go a long way towards heading off any trouble.

    The most important point seems to be that the police haven't banned visiting fans on the basis of the violence they might be guilty of perpetrating, but due to the risk of other people perpetrating violence against them. I've come across this attitude from the police before, of asking victims to modify their behaviour rather than confronting criminals. It's the wrong approach.
    That is entirely the point.

    Some of these fans are obnoxious, but those who misbehave can be dealt with accordingly.

    They are being barred, not because of their behaviour, but because some of the local inhabitants want to assault them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,314
    One news story to watch today.

    A knife edge vote on measures to reduce pollution / emissions by shipping at the IMO.

    A large majority of the world is in agreement, and Trump is throwing a tantrum at the last minute.

    https://splash247.com/too-close-to-call-imos-make-or-break-vote-to-define-shippings-decarbonisation-path/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,223

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    Sir Keir wants to allow the fans to attend.
    If only he could do something about it. Imagine what he could do if he was PM.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,314
    dunham said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    Sir Keir wants to allow the fans to attend.
    Yet another unpopular faux pas by SKS. He would have been better staying silent and not commenting on a minor provincial policing matter. The Macacabi fans would clearly have been unwelcome visitors to Birmingham, and they have a previous history of being violent and disruptive, so it is best for all that they stay away.
    Yes. It should have "a decision for the local police, not politicians".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,402
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    Excellent and really important work by @AyoubKhanMP . Maccabi Tel Aviv fans behaviour has been shocking and the fact they remain in European competition is a stain on the sport we all love

    https://x.com/themuslimvoteuk/status/1978955958815437063?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    When I have time I look forward to reading all his comments demanding that fans from teams who have violent racist ultras are also banned, some of the Italian and Central European teams are terrible for this.
    The solution while requiring considerable policing, ought to be quite simple.

    Hold the match at a neutral venue, limiting the numbers so that opposing fans can be well segregated, and ban for life anyone initiating violence.

    Sectarianism cannot be allowed to prevail.
    The wailing on behalf of the Maccabi fans on here is bizarre. Invert it and imagine a bunch of ultras from an Islamic country marauding around Jewish parts of London and threatening to kill them.
    I take no sides on this particular dispute (partly as I don't have much time for football, or understanding of the niceties).
    But the best way to deal with football related violence is (I think ?) already quite well established.
    I'd guess one difference is the police know exactly who the football related trouble makers are, including European teams, through intelligence sharing which makes them easier to manage as long as you throw enough resources at tracking them. With the local anti Israeli youths they probably won't have similar reliable intel.

    Still the wrong decision. Although could see a case for Israeli clubs to be excluded generally as we exclude Russian clubs but that is a separate discussion.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,738

    Nigelb said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    If the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans remains, I think it could be a pivotal moment in British history

    Yes, we could be talking King Harold choosing to charge down the beach here. I foresee Britain irreconcilably split after this: on one side the Maccabi-ites - for whom peace, freedom and a tolerance of all men is their call - and on the other those sympathetic to despotism, subjugation and the crushing of all human will. Darkness or light? it's time for a nation to decide.
    Your feeble sarcasm is noted

    Check this

    “Birmingham Islamic preacher, Astar Rashid, told his followers that the Muslims of Birmingham “should show no mercy” to the football fans from Tel Aviv.

    And the British police just announced that it is not capable of protecting the Jewish fans.

    The UK has a big problem”

    https://x.com/uricohenisrael/status/1978898681475600620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is why West Midlands police banned the Israeli fans. Because they cannot protect them from violent anti semite mobs in Birmingham. So the police surrendered and the menacing mob triumphed
    ah yes another social media clip where the summary of the video bears no relation to the actual video quoted. down and down and down the rabbit hole we go
    Actually, looking at the whole clip the guy seems something of an integrationist.
    His attitudes appear somewhat hostile to politicalbetting.
    Yes, an apologist for bet welching, though only, as far as I understood his abstruse theology, if it involves the IDF.
    Good to see that others have watched the video as well, I assume the OP hadn't :)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,666

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re discussions about 'the rich'.

    One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.

    It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.

    This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.

    I think you are really rich once you reach the point that you don't have to care about movements on the stock market, or about money in general. The money is always there, to enable you to do the things you want to do.
    And when one reaches that stage people start to believe that to be "really rich" you have homes in at least 3 countries and at least one of a boat or private jet. It is amazing how few people are willing to accept they are rich.
    I have a friend who is worth about £950m. Literally (he married very well)

    He once denied that he is “truly rich”. Why? Because he hangs out in LA with people worth multiple billions not just one billion, and THEY are the “truly rich” in his eyes
    I would say anyone with wealth over £1 million is rich to most people.

    Anyone with wealth over £100 million is super rich and billionaires are yes the truly rich beyond question but even billionaires like Musk and Gates and Bezos and Ellison are several leagues above most billionaires
    £1 million when Thatcher left Number Ten is the equivalent of £2.5 million today, thanks to the magic of inflation.

    Being a millionaire is not what it once was.
    I find this inflation business fascinating in relation to Victorian fiction. Two examples. Sherlock Holmes in The Hound of the Baskervilles gives a reward to a cab driver for (not very useful) information of half a sovereign (50p). That's about £50.

    In Trollope's 'The Prime Minister' an upper middle class man is robbed at night in St James's Park, in his wallet are eight five pound notes. He has no special reason to be carrying a lot. That's about £4000.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,495

    Kyle Cheney
    @kyledcheney

    NEW: John Bolton's criminal case has been assigned to Judge Theodore Chuang, an Obama appointee who earlier this year issued one of the most sweeping rulings against DOGE.

    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1978954425306583405
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,769
    stodge said:

    I was in Brighton yesterday attending the last meeting of the season at the racecourse up the hill - a solid 40 minute walk from the station to get there and an easier 30 minute walk coming back. Apparently, the 37B bus from Churchill Square does the job but what's the fun in that?

    I managed a Blanchesque 21,000 steps yesterday but the punting was less successful on a card which was more bread and dripping than bread and butter at a course which looks in dire need of something - like so much else, it has contracted to save costs, not physically, but in terms of what's available. The thin (numerically) crowd was crowded into a single enclosure - the other enclosure (which used to have Barrie Cope's superb seafood curry bar) now stands forlorn with the bar and betting shop shuttered.

    The cost of everything, the value of nothing....

    Brighton itself is curious and reminds me a bit of Camden - very young (as you might expect) but homelessness and deprivation (of a sort) close by. A lot of building work suggesting there's money around but a level of, and I don't know if this is the right word, untidiness. Yet, there's an energy, a strong vibrant youth culture and a loyalty to the place you don't see everywhere.

    A word also for the train service - I could have travelled on the Thameslink from East Croydon all the way there but for an extra couple of quid got a ticket to ride (no, I didn't care, you see, that's a subtle song reference unlike @TSE's headers) on the Gatwick Express so went to Gatwick on Thameslink (no stop) and then switched to the Gatwick Express (stops only at Haywards Heath). Very comfortable and quick down to the coast - not quite the Brighton Belle of former times but not bad at all.

    Flags were out in Brighton last weekend - Union Jacks, Israeli and Jacks with the Star of David. Given the mix in Brighton, their oddity seemed to fit in. Also come the revolution everyone will be in the pub come lunchtime. They don't seem to do full days.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,067
    One solution to the villa tel aviv brouhaha would be for UEFA to ban Aston Villa on the grounds that their fans are anti semitic thugs who threaten Jewish fans with “no mercy” before they even arrive

    Villa booted out. Tel aviv get the win by default. We can
    all move on
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