The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
Although the IMF has predicted that the UK will be the second-fastest growing G7 economy this year, most Britons feel the UK economy is doing worse than those of other major western countriesWorse: 56%About the same: 23%Better: 10%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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Edit - removed chart, it showed that in 2011-12 Hampshire had a budget of £715m with £380m or so spent on social care.
Now it's £1075m of which £875m(ish) is social care.
So council tax has gone up but there is nothing left to spend on anything else because the Tory party pushed social care spending onto the council budget.
No, wait
I'd be interested in a spending v taxes breakdown by party, particularly on the NHS.
I'll fix it now.
But for the final time to all PBers, you are limited to one picture per day, the allowance starts at 00.00 UK time.
And its GDP per capita that counts. We have let in 10 million people and got no richer because of it. And in many ways we are poorer as a society - more fractured, angry and atomised
And recently Italy overtook us. Il Sorpasso
I don't care what the stats say about growth - in the real economy most people are low on cash and not spending freely.
If we do something about the low on cash bit we can address the inability to spend. And we do need free cash to spend - that's someone else's job, someone else's business. And thus tax receipts coming in, matched by economic activity.
Starter for 10 - energy costs. Decouple energy prices from gas. And being in regional pricing. Could do that tomorrow and as energy prices fall by 25-40% we would make everything cheaper and cut the cost of living...
Who’s with me?
THE PB POSSE
We can ride electro Vespas in Savile row blazers. @Sean_F is the doctor who was a vet. @Nigelb is the one with doubts about the whole enterprise
But we ride on, nonetheless
And child services has gone up a lot, although some of that would have been hidden in school budgets back in 2011/12 as they were locally still local authority managed at the time.
Edit to add - I didn't think child social care had gone up that much, but not surprising when you don't fix problems early on via surestart.
(BTW, when in Riyadh, check out the national museum. They have exquisite items recovered from ancient cities in the desert. Only a tiny amount has been unearthed - the sand still covers untold wonders.)
We're in a massive hole as a country and I'd like to see a plan for getting out of it. We present as a wealthy country and we're not.
Good morning, everybody.
You’re right. But until we have politicians prepared to accept the problem and take action we will just drift along until something has to be done.
Health and Social care is something with an endless appetite and it’s only going to keep growing without a massive shift in politics where people are told that it’s over, people need to take more responsibility for their health and long term care provision. It would be good if Kemi could start saying this now as, whilst it would make the Tories unpopular for a while there is time to hope the reality seeps through and voters eventually accept a sensible approach to money rather than endless spending.
Basically, a severely disabled person in their 30s, particularly with learning disabilities, costs a fortune to look after. Significantly more than an 80-year old, particularly as older people will be self-funding at least some of their care.
Quite a lot of people- let's be honest, quite a lot of us, here- have more cash than we really know what to do with. Savings ratios are going up, probably not in a good way. Plenty more don't, but that's Two Nations for you.
We could do a raid on Conservative home
Just ride in and whoop it up. Shooting off random mad remarks. Make the Tory ladies hide behind their curtains. Get @Sunil_Prasannan to tell them about trains in argyle
Then leave without explanation
I fear sensible and intelligent may be disqualifications for the role as far as Bibi and the lads are concerned though.
Legally it is of limited authority, being a Crown Court appeal from the magistrates, but the presiding judge is a very very experienced high court judge. He gets it spot on.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Rex-v-Hamit-Coskun.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
(Am I allowed to post these - this is an indirect archive link?)
People here are free to give 5% or 10% of their income to good causes, ideally local where they have most impact, of course.
Or we could balance up the tax system better.
https://x.com/peterrhague/status/1978895512276214053
One notable thing about living in the UK is how prices increasingly don’t have much relation to reality.
* mortgages and rents are dictated by huge government manipulation of both supply and demand
* consumer prices are driven by a high and not universally applied VAT, with Byzantine rules for exemptions
* energy prices are basically made up for political reasons
* the NHS prices are completely hidden in the tax system
* new car prices are driven by demand from the absurd Motability scheme, and by punitive import tariffs
* increasingly flat wages converge towards a legal minimum, and employment costs are significantly higher than wages due to the way NI works.
This heavily manipulated market is not working, and the government responds typically by further market manipulation (eg introducing universal rent controls) in an effort to make unhappy voting blocs wealthier by diktat.
On the highlighted point, the number of those on very low pay (hourly earnings below two-thirds of the median hourly wage) has dropped like a stone, since the minimum wage now exceeds this number.
But this also means there's a very large number in employment with a very small wage differential between those at the bottom and those higher up.
News organisations are getting very annoyed at websites that rob them of their income.
People should be encouraged to save for their own retirement, not penalised for it. The regime needs to be stable enough for people to have confidence that the rules will not change to their disadvantage.
It is a toxic subject though. In 2017 it was part of Mays fiasco election, but actually a good policy. No one will touch it again.
If they choose to allow it, then they can hardly complain that it happens.
Most serious legal letter OGH ever received was from The Times when Plato was copying and pasting dozens of entire articles from behind the paywall
We should tax pensions at the same rate as we tax wages, not penalise either. Currently we don't.
So I'm surprised at a reputable pollster formulating it in this rather leading way and not really sure what they were trying to achieve.
Interesting set of local elections this week (3 results to come today still)
The Surrey, Spelthorne etc wards went very much in line with recent trends and polling - LDs in command, Reform fighting Tories for second. Guildford and Surrey Heath look fairly solid for Lib Dem defence next time as we stand and Spelthorne looks vulnerable to a Tory loss to LD perhaps - Green collapse was a bit eye watering in Staines given their recent surge
Preston a very impressive LD gain ad Labour in real trouble everywhere.
Copdock a Ref gain from LD for the first time and South Suffolk looks like a very gainable Reform target
Ayr won by an independent local business owner, tory vote collapsed. Reform not looking like major challengers. Ayr SNP hold at Holyrood I'd suggest.
Impressive Tory gain in Trafford with vote holding up as Lab collapsed. Probably assisted by a relatively large Hindu population which is a strong demographic for them right now, Reform fourth so Old Lady Brady's Altrincham looks a good bet for a Tory regain from Labour as we stand (the little blue group of Chester and Eddisbury, Tatton, Altrincham might well be the sole blue island in the NW if Fylde drops)
Context is everything. Burning a Koran or a flag or ring of Poppies etc is not in itself a crime unless it is done with a liklihood of causing alarm or distress. So a bonfire in my own garden is fine, doing it in front of a Mosque while part of a mob is not. A key issue is Social Media, does this count as a public place, and what is the intent?
Second, yes, the growth in the costs of all aspects of social care has been considerable and don't forget it's about BOTH adult AND child social care. It's not just down to there being more elderly people in receipt of publicly-funded care, we also have vulnerable children with conditions which, frankly, would have been terminal not too long ago but who can now, with adequate care provision, be kept alive (the question of the quality of that life is a different one).
Whether it's domiciliary care provision or full care in a private dementia care facility funded by the council makes little odds in terms of the provision and with families getting increasingly savvy about how to avoid care costs (putting properties in trusts for example), the burden falls on the council.
The other big area of increased expenditure is of course SEN provision which starts with qualified SEN teachers through specialist accommodation in schools to transport.
In Newham, it's 43% of the budget with another 20% on housing services - an area we don't talk about much but another source of funding pressure in many councils.
@TSE is quite correct on this
And of course the papers are right. These sites are simply stealing. And this is at a crucial time when “the papers” have finally worked out a way to make a profit from/despite the internet
Surely all PBers want a healthy media ecosystem. It s a vital part of democracy. If we do want this, we have to pay for it, not steal
Other fun fact, I used to waste hours following Plato's links to American stories which invariably turned out not to be what she claimed. I do not think she read them or watched the videos herself but was simply pasting whatever links showed up in her alt-right feeds.
But I've largely given up now, which is why I have no informed opinion on whether Portland is home to the drug-crazed, crime-ridden, zombie apocalypse some posters warned us about, or not.
If you have access behind the paywall and manually copy and paste then that's different to automated scraping which can't happen if the paywall is in place.
The FT chooses to allow search engines like Google access to their articles, which is how you can get access to its articles without paying. That's their choice. That's AFAIK how sites like archive.is work, they automate scraping via the permissions that sites like the FT gives.
The Times AFAIK does not give those permissions out.
GAFCON, which is an "alternative Anglican Communion" lead by Nigerian and other Bishops, has put out a declaration about walking away from Canterbury, and breaking the Anglican Communion. They are making it mainly around gay relationships, and possibly a female Archbishop who is willing to accept them. It is framed around "we are the Anglican Communion now".
There are some strange things about it, such as it having been announced now, when the new ABC is not due to be enthroned until 2026, and it coming from an Archbishop in Nigeria. The reaction is due to a position that does not exist yet.
There are clearly lots of power politics happening. I'm seeing "Great Schism" type reports from non-denominational sources in places like the USA and Sydney, and not a lot from elsewhere.
A brief report: https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/sarah-mullally-s-election-to-archbishop-of-canterbury-described-as-devastating
The new concern is of search engines (Google and Bing) providing AI summaries of search results, so end-users are not clicking through to the sites thrown up by their searches but instead just read the summary. Result, lost page views which means at best less advertising revenue and worse, no conversion to sales.
It is quite edgy and sad downtown, with a fair number of druggies all over the place, but it’s not Armageddon
If I lived in Portland I’d really not like it. But I wouldn’t be frightened for my life and they don’t need the army. They just need a tough new mayor like the one in San Francisco
They could choose not to allow it, but then they wouldn't appear in searches.
Swings and roundabouts.
The intriguing part about the Trafford result was the turnout - close to 50% - which is very good for a local council by-election - and by all accounts the Conservatives, Labour, LDs AND Reform all worked the seat.
I believe there is some some evidence Reform are not so effective in higher turnout contests but I've not looked into that in as much detail and it may be where they face significant local competition it's much harder for them - no surprise.
If you own your own home with mortgage paid of you should be on financial easy street.
If you rent then you're likely to be struggling.
Is it assumed that government spending can only ever increase ?
I am much nearer to creating one nation than Labour will ever be. Socialism is two nations. The privileged rulers, and everyone else. And it always gets to that. What I am desperately trying to do is create one nation with everyone being a man of property, or having the opportunity to be a man of property.
Then for some reason the term got hijacked by people who like other concepts and believe that letting out properties is the future instead of ensuring that everyone can own their own.
We need a return to one nation, but no party offers that.
Your regular reminder that the coalition's austerity "cost saving" has proven to be very expensive.
New Statesman has some data/thoughts on higher turnouts recently (not read it yet) if you're interested
One determinant may be when the daily movements on the financial markets make you thousands of pounds richer or poorer.
It certainly makes those spending their time in bookies or obsessing on niche betting websites look small time in comparison.
This determinant can only properly be appreciated by those with DC pensions.
I managed a Blanchesque 21,000 steps yesterday but the punting was less successful on a card which was more bread and dripping than bread and butter at a course which looks in dire need of something - like so much else, it has contracted to save costs, not physically, but in terms of what's available. The thin (numerically) crowd was crowded into a single enclosure - the other enclosure (which used to have Barrie Cope's superb seafood curry bar) now stands forlorn with the bar and betting shop shuttered.
The cost of everything, the value of nothing....
Brighton itself is curious and reminds me a bit of Camden - very young (as you might expect) but homelessness and deprivation (of a sort) close by. A lot of building work suggesting there's money around but a level of, and I don't know if this is the right word, untidiness. Yet, there's an energy, a strong vibrant youth culture and a loyalty to the place you don't see everywhere.
A word also for the train service - I could have travelled on the Thameslink from East Croydon all the way there but for an extra couple of quid got a ticket to ride (no, I didn't care, you see, that's a subtle song reference unlike @TSE's headers) on the Gatwick Express so went to Gatwick on Thameslink (no stop) and then switched to the Gatwick Express (stops only at Haywards Heath). Very comfortable and quick down to the coast - not quite the Brighton Belle of former times but not bad at all.
People never think *why* that is so.
Even if it were far more crime ridden than it is (as indeed is the case with not a few cities in Republican governed states), that doesn't provide legal justification for an administration to send in the military.
And when you get older, it's bad to have too much of one's savings in equities lest they do a nose-dive just when one needs the cash. Which is Sensible according to universal wisdom.
In fact, right now I'm mulling whether it is a good to use any more of my ISA allowance on equities, given the news.
Don't know how you can resolve the conflict ...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-gdp-per-capita-by-g7-country-2019-2029f/
You'll appreciate the title, though Biden was President for most of that period, so I'm not sure how it fits your thesis that a war on woke is necessary to rescue the economy.
Buckhurst Hill Ward
Ref gain 2 from Con
Ref 493 483
Con 417 351
Grn 355 327
Ind 187
LD 180
Ind 70
Ind 63
Turnout 29%"
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19361/2025-parish-community-council-elections?page=18
It would be far more cost effective than buying additional F35s (and can carry the most capable UK missiles that they can't), and would mean more of the defence budget gets spent in the UK.
(Tempest will take a decade or more to deliver.)
Germany's commitment to buy an additional 20 @Eurofighter Typhoons which is great news for securing highly-skilled UK manufacturing jobs.
More than a third of every aircraft will be built by our people in the North of England, which sit at the heart of the UK’s combat air industry.
https://x.com/BAESystemsAir/status/1978732681572622547
Yet we're regularly treated to claims that Poland is about to overtake the UK on GDP per capita.
Rents are distorted by greedy private landlords and a lack of Council Housing.
Consumer prices are driven high by out of control Capitalism and ridiculous Boardroom pay
Energy prices are high due to failed privatisation and see e above
For all other points see 2 above
From 2025 it has British gdp per capita growth suddenly accelerating away from everyone else bar the USA. Why? How? Where’s this sudden growth spurt coming from? Is there any sign of it under Skyr and Tiny Tears? Nope
It’s piffle
Most likely though she won't increase income tax, national insurance or VAT in line with the Labour manifesto. However she probably will freeze the income tax threshold and increase capital gains tax and possibly have a mansion tax too
The US military swears an oath to the constitution, not the president.
A commander quitting mid operation like this is extremely unusual.
The U.S. military commander overseeing the escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea is said to be stepping down.
https://x.com/nytimes/status/1978921428163404253
Whilst it is obviously true it is bad to have "too much" in equities by definition, the thinking around that was mostly historically driven by the pre 2015 landscape where people had to buy an annuity by 75.
It is far less an issue when you can manage this yourself via gradual drawdown. The benefits of staying heavily in equities may well outweigh the risks for many nowadays.
While we want most to own their own home trying to ensure everyone does won't work, it just sees banks and building societies lending too much to low earners which was the cause of the 2008 crash
But the annuity issue is relevant to care, surely? One way of dealing with the cost of care (on top of any pre-existing pension etc.) is to buy an annuity at the time of need. Friend's mother fell significantly ill and had to move into a care home - the family obtained an annuity based on the medical prognosis. Happily she survived for much longer than expected, but that was just luck. Could have been the other way round. The main thing was that the family didn't need to worry about running out of money.