This 2/1 bet feels like value – politicalbetting.com
This 2/1 bet feels like value – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Polling on behalf of @CamlasCymru sees Reform UK and Plaid Cymru neck and neck in Caerphilly as Labour fall far behind into third place ahead of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election next Thursday.REF: 42% (+40)PC: 38% (+10)LAB: 12% (-34)CON: 4% (-14)GRN: 3% (+3)LD: 1%… pic.twitter.com/3OwnJfId1Q
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Con, Green, LD to lose deposits,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caerphilly_(Senedd_constituency)
Last time I went for business reasons that’s what I did.
(What have you done to upset the Saudis?)
Good luck.
The firm at the heart of Britain's critical minerals strategy has ditched plans for a rare earths refinery in the UK, and will build it in the US instead.
It's a serious blow to the Chancellor and her plans for "securonomics" ahead of next month's Budget
https://x.com/edconwaysky/status/1978745822704447573?s=61
https://order-order.com/2025/10/16/watch-sky-news-mistakenly-reports-mass-layoffs-of-all-nestle-uk-employees/
Chinese state operatives present a daily national security threat to the UK, the head of MI5 Sir Ken McCallum has said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0ex172rxwzo
There are a lot of big industrial estates which had imported employment from EU grants in the 80s and 90s, those jobs have all but gone. Braces bakery announced yesterday one of its two factories in the area will close. Like most of South Wales north of the M4 past the tunnel it's an economic desert.
I will not mourn the end of Braces bread, I have a formative memory of getting food poisoning from one of their bakeries.
That’s my big political opinion of the day
Plus there’s local factors that always aren’t picked up.
Yes, Blackwood, Fleur de Lys, and Newbridge was what I had it mind. I think they even closed the Pot Noodle mines and moved them to England.
Lack of support. That ‘may’ include energy but, like Biopharma, it looks like the US wants to support these key industries more than other nations.
‘But now I've learnt Pensana has decided to ditch its plans for a UK rare earths refinery and will instead refine its metals in the US instead.
Why? Because the US is providing far more support and security to critical minerals firms. Britain & Europe are losing the race’
So why isn't the refinery already built?
I think the Unilever noodle factory remains in use. It's about 200 yards from the site of this recent incident. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5p033d3xdo
Not many other industries left, General Dynamics is probably the only glimmer of light.
Joking aside - Rare earths refining involves complex chemical work. Lots of opportunities for pollution etc.
The kind of stuff where it’s easier to heroically oppose doing it here, then use the results.
Much like the proposal for toxic ship (ships full of asbestos etc) breaking facility in the U.K., years back. Despite being a totally enclosed setup, air filtration etc - banned.
Instead, kids with hammers break up these ships on Indian beaches.
I'd be surprised if they've finished digging the foundations.
Very strange.
That's my random off-beat tourist tip of the day.
Rather more mainstream, take the ferry across to, and walk around, Bainbridge Island if you haven't already for some North-West small town charm.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-first-magnet-refinery-given-huge-financial-boost-as-first-ever-strategy-for-supply-of-critical-minerals-published
It's stated that government money is being provided, though it's not explicit how much: "The facility is backed by the government’s Automotive Transformation Fund, an £850 million programme to electrify Britain’s automotive supply chain and protect our nation’s competitiveness in the global market."
So, y'know, credit to the government at the time, it looks like the sort of thing the PB consensus would be in favour of. What went wrong? Why wasn't it built?
The Scouts incident nails on a Reform landslide I suspect.
The Athletic | Football
@TheAthleticFC
West Midlands Police (WMP) has requested that supporters of Israeli club Maccabi Tel Aviv not be allowed to attend the Europa League game against Aston Villa in Birmingham on November 6 due to concerns over unrest, sources briefed on the matter told The Athletic.
The force has advised the city’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG) against approving an away allocation at Villa Park, and UEFA, the competition’s organiser, is expected to follow the recommendation of local authorities.
Part of the problem with the new format of European competition is that Villa fans can't be banned from going to the reverse fixture (not that that would necessarily be a satisfactory compromise, of course).
A local MP was stoking tensions not so long ago:
https://x.com/AyoubKhanMP/status/1968379890388058359
UEFA might insist the game is played behind closed doors.
This is true of Portland and SF as well. Compared to modern big European cities, these west coast cities feel “whiter”. Muslims are replaced by Hispanics etc
They also feel much much richer than Europe. I used to think Europeans had lives as good as Americans, perhaps better - but different
I no longer think that. Europe is falling behind, dramatically
Europe is regulating itself to death. We all need a hard right populist libertarian revolution, or Europe is finished
"We all need a hard right populist libertarian revolution, or Europe is finished". Nope. To quote Peter Mannion "that's Fucking Mental"
TLDR: Republiprats in the Texas Legislature were passing a law to ban (apparently, and amongst other things) provision of litter boxes for school chiddren in loos who self-identify as animals.
TLLDR: The claim that such provision is made, and therefore requires banning, is afaics a straw man fabricated (or believed if they are such Alpha-Grade Numpties as appears) by such legislators around their "anti-woke" obsession, when it misfired. I guess it's better than banning books.
Viral video of the chap (not popular with the Secretary of War, as he has a beard aka a "beardo" in Pantomime Pete's argot) having his pants pulled down by some polite questions. The car crash is mesmerising.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUnEe5bBX2s
* Furries are a cosplay community - vaguely in the same niche as people who like Star Trek conventions or Wild West weekends. The Republicans just went loopy.
I’ve traveled extensively around the poorest state in the Union. Mississippi
On this trip I went to Eureka, Ca. I saw the meth towns of southern Oregon. I’ve seen plenty of US poverty. It can be very grim (tho Europe can be easily as grim)
What Europe lacks is the dynamism and optimism of America, plus the huge amounts of money. America is RICH
Kemi is bold!
How much is that going to cost? Add it to the black hole…
Carter Ruck and Amersi taking on the SRA in a Part 8 claim. Anyone any idea about that or will they get slapped down?
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/oct/15/turn-scallop-roe-into-butter-recipe-zero-waste-cooking-tom-hunt
IMO if that is an option they are watching the treadmill, not their objectives.
And these days, they change FAST
Meanwhile the number of simply racist shorts is rising, as I pointed out here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5352046/#Comment_5352046
Get on the wrong side of the authorities, and that might well happen.
He’s quite thoughtful.
Have the Reform obsessives covered this ?
A police investigation into allegations against Reform councillors and their election agent of overspending on election expenses has been dropped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0ejjdqme6o
SOTV
Dont be an apologist for trash.
Could be a pattern of things to come now.
Presumably this would give Villa a bye into the next round, so double win there.
By the same token remove Georgian, Armenian, Azeri and Kazakh teams if proximity to Europe is the issue.
Putin playing Trump like a fiddle and has spiked Zelensky's meeting tomorrow.
This is why Europe needs to establish strategic autonomy.
https://x.com/nj_timothy/status/1978865979611291844?s=61
Hampshire council spends 83% of its budget on social care.
FT.
A number of payday loan apps that allow poor people to access to a proportion of their paycheck in advance, on top of all the fees, ask for a tip....no once, not twice, one asks 13 times during the process.
Ban Jews from supporting their club because people are so racist they might not be safe? What a disgraceful victim-blaming attitude.
The Tories have much to answer for.
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1978854635403182300?s=61
They're members of UEFA.
https://news.sky.com/story/why-does-israels-football-team-play-in-europe-10359083
The West Mids Police are a disgrace.
https://x.com/AyoubKhanMP/status/1978872616279536026
The Police much more to blame.
If Villa and the Police can't ensure safety it should be relocated to be played in another country that can keep fans safe.