Skip to content

Tory members do not want Badenoch to lead the party at the next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,716
edited 3:05PM in General
Tory members do not want Badenoch to lead the party at the next election – politicalbetting.com

This polling doesn’t bring any good news for Kemi Badenoch, if the leadership election was run today Jenrick would win.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130
    I am one of the 652!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,189
    edited 3:12PM
    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,751
    I find nothing surprisng in this polling, but expect she has until May 26 to win over the members

    I do expect if it is a disaster in May, Bademoch will resign and if Jenrick wins I also can see some form of agreement for the next GE

    I do not expect a majority conservative government at the next GE, nor do I expect a majority labour one
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,544
    I’m surprised this is only happening now as there have long been questions and people alledging things.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/06/tax-authorities-nigel-farage-hmrc-reform-uk-george-cottrell
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,856

    I am one of the 652!

    Did you give the nod to Honest Bob, and do you want a pact with the snake oil salesman?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,449

    I find nothing surprisng in this polling, but expect she has until May 26 to win over the members

    I do expect if it is a disaster in May, Bademoch will resign and if Jenrick wins I also can see some form of agreement for the next GE

    I do not expect a majority conservative government at the next GE, nor do I expect a majority labour one

    Any agreement with Reform and the Tory party have signed themselves up for a slow poison death...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,670
    Post cognitive dissonance?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,856
    edited 3:16PM

    I find nothing surprisng in this polling, but expect she has until May 26 to win over the members

    I do expect if it is a disaster in May, Bademoch will resign and if Jenrick wins I also can see some form of agreement for the next GE

    I do not expect a majority conservative government at the next GE, nor do I expect a majority labour one

    I hope one nation Tories decline any pact with the Devil wears Harris Tweed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399
    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,461

    I am one of the 652!

    One of the hundred odd delusional enough to expect a Tory majority?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399
    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    I think that when you have children who will be at school in Wales only for a year or two - because the family is moving around different British military bases - then it would seem a little ridiculous for them to learn Welsh for that limited period.

    I'm a fan of the ridiculous, though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130
    edited 3:20PM
    Foxy said:

    I am one of the 652!

    One of the hundred odd delusional enough to expect a Tory majority?
    I was in the 6% that expect a wipeout, only because pounded like a dockside hooker wasn't an option YouGov gave me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,384
    edited 3:23PM
    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    We did this earlier.

    If placed on a 3-5 year posting to part of Wales where *all the teaching* in the schools are in Welsh, it makes no sense to dump in children who speak no Welsh.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,197
    Kemi loves Britain but she can't spell it.


    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1975187152074870892

    Labour worked against Jeremy Corbyn. It is not hard to imagine CCHQ working against Kemi. It is screw-up after screw-up, from axing GSTK to blaming Labour for Tory laws, to this. It surely can't all be incompetence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,057
    These are the same members that elected Liz Truss.

    They know fuck all about politics it seems.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    Kemi loves Britain but she can't spell it.


    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1975187152074870892

    Labour worked against Jeremy Corbyn. It is not hard to imagine CCHQ working against Kemi. It is screw-up after screw-up, from axing GSTK to blaming Labour for Tory laws, to this. It surely can't all be incompetence.

    If you work on the assumption Kemi thinks she's always right and her instincts are perfect then preparation is for losers it all makes sense.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,856
    boulay said:

    I’m surprised this is only happening now as there have long been questions and people alledging things.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/06/tax-authorities-nigel-farage-hmrc-reform-uk-george-cottrell

    Why would HMRC be concerned by someone writing a book called "How to Launder Money"?

    Two tier Keir justice!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,794

    I am one of the 652!

    Is Smarkets still going? I only see references to Betfair now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    boulay said:

    I’m surprised this is only happening now as there have long been questions and people alledging things.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/06/tax-authorities-nigel-farage-hmrc-reform-uk-george-cottrell

    Why would HMRC be concerned by someone writing a book called "How to Launder Money"?

    Two tier Keir justice!
    To be fair, I have written a report/guide at work entitled 'How to launder money'.

    It's basically guide on spotting how to spot the red flags and how not fall foul of AML regulations.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,794
    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    I am one of the 652!

    Is Smarkets still going? I only see references to Betfair now.
    It is, but Shadsy no longer works for them, so the markets aren't as brilliant as they were in his day.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,475

    I am one of the 652!

    Did you give the nod to Honest Bob, and do you want a pact with the snake oil salesman?
    I still backed Kemi.

    As for a pact with Reform, I'd sooner become French than be part of an electoral pact with Reform.
    Don't knock it. You get FoM in the EU :smiley:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,812

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    If core staff don't want to burden their children with vanity language lessons then that's just the cost of doing business.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,384
    edited 3:29PM

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,554
    edited 3:31PM
    *delete photo of Barry Gardiner*
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,794
    Foss said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    If core staff don't want to burden their children with vanity language lessons then that's just the cost of doing business.
    If MoD staff want to pay for private schooling out of their wages, that’s their choice. I don’t see why taxpayers should subsidise them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,856

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    Unless one's child attends a Welsh language school, lessons are in English. Give Ukraine the million pound saving.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
    Oh I misread your original post.

    Not wiped out was the option.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,384

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    Unless one's child attends a Welsh language school, lessons are in English. Give Ukraine the million pound saving.

    The website of RAF Valley on Anglesey tells its workforce, "if you live and serve in north Wales, where state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language, you may choose to send your children to an English-language independent school.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,794

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,291
    Sadly the fab actor, who had a wonderful voice, John Woodvine, has died.

    https://x.com/belfieldward/status/1975192565206110358?s=61
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
    Oh I misread your original post.

    Not wiped out was the option.
    So, "not wiped out" was the worst possible outcome they could choose, which feels like potentially an optimistic floor to Tory prospects.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,384

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,239

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    The military also don’t have a choice in where they get posted. It’s not as if the parents are taking a new job in a new place and can do their own research beforehand.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,786
    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    That's not what would happen.

    Certainly it didn't for my daughter when she moved to North Wales for her GCSEs.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,672

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    This is a non-story. Only a fool would think that children should be taught in a language they don’t understand.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,129
    That Tory Chocolate bar is everything you need to know about the former natural party of government.

    What an absolute bunch of wazzocks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,786
    "Tory members oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%. However 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament, with 25% against."

    So now you know.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,554

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
    Oh I misread your original post.

    Not wiped out was the option.
    So, "not wiped out" was the worst possible outcome they could choose, which feels like potentially an optimistic floor to Tory prospects.
    I think the NWO option means "still alive but barely".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399
    You have to make a positive choice to attend a Welsh-medium school and have Maths/Science/Whatever lessons in Welsh.

    I can understand people thinking it would be a bit daft to have a child learn Welsh for only a year or two, but it wouldn't disrupt their education in other subjects.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,342
    dixiedean said:

    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?

    Y Fali, I believe.

    The source of the name isn't clear and may be a corruption of Welsh or even Gaelic. Unlikely to actually mean Valley, because it isn't one.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 222
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    The military also don’t have a choice in where they get posted. It’s not as if the parents are taking a new job in a new place and can do their own research beforehand.
    Brings up a wider and opposite point to the one Plaid is making. All parents should have the choice to send their kids to an English only speaking school, leave the Welsh speaking to those who want to do it, the MOD would not need to pay for the private schools then.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,399
    kinabalu said:

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
    Oh I misread your original post.

    Not wiped out was the option.
    So, "not wiped out" was the worst possible outcome they could choose, which feels like potentially an optimistic floor to Tory prospects.
    I think the NWO option means "still alive but barely".
    I'd say that wiped out is at least as realistic a possibility as winning a majority given where we are. So it's interesting that it's not given as an option.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,786
    edited 3:52PM
    "Posh George" funding the voice of the working class. Convicted money launderer. My arse.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,856
    edited 3:55PM

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    Unless one's child attends a Welsh language school, lessons are in English. Give Ukraine the million pound saving.

    The website of RAF Valley on Anglesey tells its workforce, "if you live and serve in north Wales, where state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language, you may choose to send your children to an English-language independent school.
    Welsh language schools even down here in South Wales near England teach almost exclusively in Welsh. I would expect more schools even in Anglesey to teach in the medium of English rather than in the medium of Welsh, although I suspect the ratio of Welsh schools to English schools is higher there than down here.

    My children in a Catholic state school in Barry had some lessons taught in Welsh, specifically Welsh language lessons, which wouldn't lend themselves to being taught in English.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,547
    dixiedean said:

    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?

    To avoid people making jokes about RAF Quim.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,680
    dixiedean said:

    "Tory members oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%. However 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament, with 25% against."

    So now you know.

    Boiling a frog, the donors have dragged the party further and further right.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,751

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    Unless one's child attends a Welsh language school, lessons are in English. Give Ukraine the million pound saving.

    The website of RAF Valley on Anglesey tells its workforce, "if you live and serve in north Wales, where state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language, you may choose to send your children to an English-language independent school.
    Welsh language schools even down here in South Wales near England teach almost exclusively in Welsh. I would expect more schools even in Anglesey to teach in the medium of English rather than in the medium of Welsh, although I suspect the ratio of Welsh schools to English schools is higher there than down here.
    Many years ago now my daughter was told she should attend the nearby newly opened Welsh School on leaving her primary and she was tempted, until all her friends went to the secondary school in Llandudno and she wanted to be with them
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,798

    I am one of the 652!

    Indeed.
    Isn't a poll of this nature going to be subject to a rather large MOE ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,554

    kinabalu said:

    Were they given "wiped out" as an option?

    Yes.
    Should "not wiped out" read "wiped out"?
    Oh I misread your original post.

    Not wiped out was the option.
    So, "not wiped out" was the worst possible outcome they could choose, which feels like potentially an optimistic floor to Tory prospects.
    I think the NWO option means "still alive but barely".
    I'd say that wiped out is at least as realistic a possibility as winning a majority given where we are. So it's interesting that it's not given as an option.
    It is yes. I think it's a politeness/etiquette sensitivity thing given it's asking Con members. NWO is euphemistic gallows humour meaning the opposite. An absolutely catastrophic result where they can fit their MPs into a broom cupboard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,798
    FPT

    viewcode said:

    I am Kemi's biggest fan now, she deserves to be leader up until the next election.

    Kemi Badenoch axes God Save the King from end of Conservative Conference to play pop music

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/kemi-badenoch-god-save-the-king-conservative-conference

    What. The. Actual. Fuck.

    D'y'know, I'm actually a bit upset by that. Honestly, what are they doing?
    Real Conservatives get rid of the monarch, Stanley Baldwin is a legend.

    The reality is that we stopped singing GSTQ at the end of conference in 1997 and it was only brought back in 2021.

    It's a weird way to end conference, much better to end it with Abba playing.
    "Take a Chance on Me" ?

    "The Winner Takes it All " ?

    `'...One of us is crying, one of us is lying
    In her lonely bed
    Staring at the ceiling
    Wishing she was somewhere else instead.." ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130
    Nigelb said:

    I am one of the 652!

    Indeed.
    Isn't a poll of this nature going to be subject to a rather large MOE ?
    No, the MOE will be around 3.75%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,767
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    The military also don’t have a choice in where they get posted. It’s not as if the parents are taking a new job in a new place and can do their own research beforehand.
    This -to me- is the key point.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,554
    Tom Jones, I think?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,767
    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    This is a non-story. Only a fool would think that children should be taught in a language they don’t understand.
    You've clearly never attended a Critical Gender Studies lecture.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,316

    These are the same members that elected Liz Truss.

    They know fuck all about politics it seems.


    Maybe they have forgotten it all:

    Justine Greening (to the Observer):

    “I was at an event recently and two Conservative party members in their 70s came to ask me whether they should renew their membership or join Reform. They said ‘We go to meetings and we’re the youngest people there.’ I think the party is reaching a tipping point.”
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,821
    https://www.leveltheplayingfield.wales/local-authorities/isle-of-anglesey

    Scores on the doors:
    43 primaries - 41 Welsh, 1 bilingual, 1 English
    5 secondaries - 4 bilingual, 1 English

    That looks a potential problem to me, even if the English schools have high admission numbers. I can see Valley's point here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,384
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    This is a non-story. Only a fool would think that children should be taught in a language they don’t understand.
    You've clearly never attended a Critical Gender Studies lecture.
    Now you remind me of a bank seminar/awareness, where a Russian colleague told me that, based on my answers, I would have been a good Political Officers pet, back in the day.

    I’d figured out rephrasing the gibberish and saying it back.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,149

    viewcode said:

    I am Kemi's biggest fan now, she deserves to be leader up until the next election.

    Kemi Badenoch axes God Save the King from end of Conservative Conference to play pop music

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/kemi-badenoch-god-save-the-king-conservative-conference

    What. The. Actual. Fuck.

    D'y'know, I'm actually a bit upset by that. Honestly, what are they doing?
    Real Conservatives get rid of the monarch, Stanley Baldwin is a legend.

    The reality is that we stopped singing GSTQ at the end of conference in 1997 and it was only brought back in 2021.

    It's a weird way to end conference, much better to end it with Abba playing.
    "I've said it before, and I'll say it again: No more fucking Abba!"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,239
    That massive Crimean oil terminal does appear to be still, umm, experiencing operational difficulties, following last night’s unexpected conflagration.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/1975231425466229019
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,149
    dixiedean said:

    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?

    Because English is the best language in the world!

    EDIT: Oh, hi, @ydoethur!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,727
    dixiedean said:

    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?

    Apparently it was originally RAF Rhosneigr but that was too difficult for the crab fat types so they looked at the map and found a village spelt Valley on the OS maps - which would have been pretty Anglicised at that time from whatever thje original Welsh aka British wording was (run up to WW2). There's no valley there so no point in calling it RAF Cwm.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,439
    Derek McInnes, current manager of league leaders Hearts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,239
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Ooer.

    Pllllllaid not happy:

    Plaid Cymru called it a "complete waste of money" and "an insult to our language" while the Conservatives said parents should be able to choose the language in which their children are taught.

    because

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) spends about £1m a year sending children to private schools in north Wales because "state schools teach some or all lessons in the Welsh language".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

    Tell the MoD to fuck off and concentrate on supporting Ukraine.
    So you think that dropping children into a school for 3-5 years, where they don't speak the language they are *being taught in*, is a good idea?
    If they’re posted abroad isn’t it in their interests to learn the local language. Has nobody told them the empire is over?
    Ah, so you think that telling a 15 year old that all their lessons will be *taught* in a foreign language from now on is a good idea? Good bye GCSEs.....

    That is completely different from learning the local language as a second language.

    I suggest you ask a teacher what they think of that.
    This is a non-story. Only a fool would think that children should be taught in a language they don’t understand.
    You've clearly never attended a Critical Gender Studies lecture.
    Well, if you will choose to live in California…
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,041
    edited 4:23PM
    Nigelb said:

    I am one of the 652!

    Indeed.
    Isn't a poll of this nature going to be subject to a rather large MOE ?
    If it's a BPC poll, then the estimated MOE will be stated in the released documentation. Use of formulae to derive the MOE from the sample-size are deprecated because panel polling uses a self-selected sample from a nonrepresentative sample frame. They switched over sometime in the 2010s

    (feels unbearably smug)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,589
    Technically half of Conservative members do not want Badenoch to lead them into the general election. 46% may want Jenrick to lead them but that is little higher than the share he got when Badenoch beat him in the members ballot for leader last year.

    If Kemi went Tory MPs would instead likely crown Cleverly as leader. They will have noted yesterday's Telegraph poll too which had Jenrick performing worse head to head against Farage than Badenoch and Cleverly. Jenrick is a possible option to succeed Farage as leader of the populist right at the general election after next but not to lead the Tories to take on Farage at the next general election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130

    Derek McInnes, current manager of league leaders Hearts.
    Cheers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,416
    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,041

    viewcode said:

    I am Kemi's biggest fan now, she deserves to be leader up until the next election.

    Kemi Badenoch axes God Save the King from end of Conservative Conference to play pop music

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/kemi-badenoch-god-save-the-king-conservative-conference

    What. The. Actual. Fuck.

    D'y'know, I'm actually a bit upset by that. Honestly, what are they doing?
    Real Conservatives get rid of the monarch, Stanley Baldwin is a legend.

    The reality is that we stopped singing GSTQ at the end of conference in 1997 and it was only brought back in 2021.

    It's a weird way to end conference, much better to end it with Abba playing.
    "I've said it before, and I'll say it again: No more fucking Abba!"
    They're making a sequel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priscilla_Queen_of_the_Desert_2. Terence Stamp knew he was dying and spent the last year of his life filming his scenes, with the others to be spliced in later. The DVD commentary on it (or whatever they have these days) will be poignant.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,727

    dixiedean said:

    Why isn't RAF Valley RAF Cwm?

    To avoid people making jokes about RAF Quim.
    You've obviously never heard of RNAS Twatt. In Orkney. A Fleet Air Arm base, though. I suspect the alternative of HMS Tern was preferred where practicable ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,316
    Scott_xP said:

    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e

    Along those lines, this is from today's NY Times:

    "A credible estimate suggests that A.I. capital expenditures may reach 2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025, up from most likely less than 0.1 percent in 2022."

    It was going to be my factoid of the day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,589
    Heseltine endorsed the LDs in the 2019 European elections, was originally a National Liberal and would certainly back the LDs at general elections too for his remaining years if the Conservatives merged with Reform
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,814
    Pro_Rata said:

    https://www.leveltheplayingfield.wales/local-authorities/isle-of-anglesey

    Scores on the doors:
    43 primaries - 41 Welsh, 1 bilingual, 1 English
    5 secondaries - 4 bilingual, 1 English

    That looks a potential problem to me, even if the English schools have high admission numbers. I can see Valley's point here.

    Many years ago I seriously considered buying the pharmacy in Llanberis, and, to see what it was like, went and did a week's locum there. I realised that there was no way I could function as I wanted/needed to function as a pharmacist there without being at least reasonably fluent in Welsh. However I was prepared to learn, BUT, it would have mean our daughter going to a Welsh speaking school for her GCSE year and our younger son finishing his primary school in Welsh and spending his time at secondary 'in Welsh'.
    Unless I was prepared to send them to school ate least ten or so miles away. Which, having been to a secondary school fifteen miles from home, and experienced the consequent isolation, I wasn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,589
    dixiedean said:

    "Tory members oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%. However 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament, with 25% against."

    So now you know.

    Reform want to destroy the Tories not do deals with them, unless Farage wins most seats but fails to win a majority in a hung parliament but with Tory support would get over the line.

    In which case Reform would soon gobble up the Tories anyway most likely unless we went to PR
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,130
    Madness.

    Conservative party will go in to the next election with a pledge to protect the triple lock (which would keep it in place until at least 2034), a spokesman says.

    State pension is exempted from the £47bn in spending cuts set out by Mel Stride in his conference speech just now.


    https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1975138781679452472
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,416

    Scott_xP said:

    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e

    Along those lines, this is from today's NY Times:

    "A credible estimate suggests that A.I. capital expenditures may reach 2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025, up from most likely less than 0.1 percent in 2022."

    It was going to be my factoid of the day.
    The problem is not the gross expenditure, as such. The big issue is the incestuous nature of the spend.

    Nvidia went up cos OpenAI ordered loads of cards. OpenAI went up cos they got another round of funding, from Nvidia...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,554
    The party is a long way from him now. I wonder if a big charismatic One Nationer could wrench it back. Probably not.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,291

    These are the same members that elected Liz Truss.

    They know fuck all about politics it seems.


    Maybe they have forgotten it all:

    Justine Greening (to the Observer):

    “I was at an event recently and two Conservative party members in their 70s came to ask me whether they should renew their membership or join Reform. They said ‘We go to meetings and we’re the youngest people there.’ I think the party is reaching a tipping point.”
    Call for Ben Shephard.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,814
    HYUFD said:

    Heseltine endorsed the LDs in the 2019 European elections, was originally a National Liberal and would certainly back the LDs at general elections too for his remaining years if the Conservatives merged with Reform
    The National Liberals were really Conservatives trying to recruit possible Liberal voters.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,812
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e

    Along those lines, this is from today's NY Times:

    "A credible estimate suggests that A.I. capital expenditures may reach 2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025, up from most likely less than 0.1 percent in 2022."

    It was going to be my factoid of the day.
    The problem is not the gross expenditure, as such. The big issue is the incestuous nature of the spend.

    Nvidia went up cos OpenAI ordered loads of cards. OpenAI went up cos they got another round of funding, from Nvidia...
    OpenAI's value just jumped as they've arranged to buy 10% of AMD at a penny a share.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,109

    Kemi loves Britain but she can't spell it.


    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1975187152074870892

    Labour worked against Jeremy Corbyn. It is not hard to imagine CCHQ working against Kemi. It is screw-up after screw-up, from axing GSTK to blaming Labour for Tory laws, to this. It surely can't all be incompetence.

    Kemi has got plenty of incompetence to cover things;

    In recent weeks, stung by criticism that she was aloof from her MPs, Badenoch has begun inviting in small groups for lunch. Well, platters of shop-bought sandwiches.

    When I pointed out to one invitee that Badenoch famously declared last year that she hated sandwiches (in line with just 1% of the British public), they replied "oh no, the MPs had sandwiches, Kemi had something hot brought in".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0rnj6504yo

    What saves her is, terrible nurse that she is, the alternative is worse.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,109
    kinabalu said:

    The party is a long way from him now. I wonder if a big charismatic One Nationer could wrench it back. Probably not.
    Two problems.

    First, the lightbulb party has to want to change, and it doesn't. Not towards centrism, anyway.

    Second, there needs to be a big One Nationer, and I'm not convinced there is.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,230
    Pro_Rata said:

    https://www.leveltheplayingfield.wales/local-authorities/isle-of-anglesey

    Scores on the doors:
    43 primaries - 41 Welsh, 1 bilingual, 1 English
    5 secondaries - 4 bilingual, 1 English

    That looks a potential problem to me, even if the English schools have high admission numbers. I can see Valley's point here.

    Bilingual covers quite a range though. I've just had a quick look at Amwlch, for example, and I get the impression that in practice it is Welsh with a smidgen of English for the non-Welsh speakers.
    Fun fact: it was where Lemmy from Motorhead went to school - describing being the only English child among 700 Welsh as being 'not much fun but interesting from an anthropological point of view'.
    I know three Anglesonians. Two Welsh speakers (though living in my suburb of South Manchester, opportunities for Welsh speaking are limited - particularly as they don't know each other), and one whi managed to get through a childhood on Anglesey picking up no Welsh whatsoever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,589

    kinabalu said:

    The party is a long way from him now. I wonder if a big charismatic One Nationer could wrench it back. Probably not.
    Two problems.

    First, the lightbulb party has to want to change, and it doesn't. Not towards centrism, anyway.

    Second, there needs to be a big One Nationer, and I'm not convinced there is.
    Boris said he was a Brexity Hezza
  • eekeek Posts: 31,449
    Foss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e

    Along those lines, this is from today's NY Times:

    "A credible estimate suggests that A.I. capital expenditures may reach 2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025, up from most likely less than 0.1 percent in 2022."

    It was going to be my factoid of the day.
    The problem is not the gross expenditure, as such. The big issue is the incestuous nature of the spend.

    Nvidia went up cos OpenAI ordered loads of cards. OpenAI went up cos they got another round of funding, from Nvidia...
    OpenAI's value just jumped as they've arranged to buy 10% of AMD at a penny a share.
    AMD's share price went up by 23% because of the number of GPUs OpenAI are buying from AMD

    But the problem is that OpenAI have committed to spending a trillion on chips & data centres for data centres that don't exist, requiring power that will take even longer to create and spending investors money that also doesn't seem to exist.

    Which wouldn't be so funny if I could see a product that people were actually buying in quantities to justify the investment (and they really won't).

    Meanwhile tomorrow I know I've got 3 AI generated solutions that are actually based on broken fundamentals - which means I'm going to waste hours explaining the flaws at a simple enough level that management will understand...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,416
    Foss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year... In a way, then, America has become one big bet on AI."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6cc87bd9-cb2f-4f82-99c5-c38748986a2e

    Along those lines, this is from today's NY Times:

    "A credible estimate suggests that A.I. capital expenditures may reach 2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025, up from most likely less than 0.1 percent in 2022."

    It was going to be my factoid of the day.
    The problem is not the gross expenditure, as such. The big issue is the incestuous nature of the spend.

    Nvidia went up cos OpenAI ordered loads of cards. OpenAI went up cos they got another round of funding, from Nvidia...
    OpenAI's value just jumped as they've arranged to buy 10% of AMD at a penny a share.
    More infrastructure spend by a software company. None of the spend is by actual customers for AI. It's all just more air in the bubble.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,814

    Kemi loves Britain but she can't spell it.


    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1975187152074870892

    Labour worked against Jeremy Corbyn. It is not hard to imagine CCHQ working against Kemi. It is screw-up after screw-up, from axing GSTK to blaming Labour for Tory laws, to this. It surely can't all be incompetence.

    Kemi has got plenty of incompetence to cover things;

    In recent weeks, stung by criticism that she was aloof from her MPs, Badenoch has begun inviting in small groups for lunch. Well, platters of shop-bought sandwiches.

    When I pointed out to one invitee that Badenoch famously declared last year that she hated sandwiches (in line with just 1% of the British public), they replied "oh no, the MPs had sandwiches, Kemi had something hot brought in".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0rnj6504yo

    What saves her is, terrible nurse that she is, the alternative is worse.
    If I was a Tory I might wonder about that.

    I'm not though, so I can smugly point and laugh. Although not too loudly, as I usually vote LibDem.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,109
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    The party is a long way from him now. I wonder if a big charismatic One Nationer could wrench it back. Probably not.
    Two problems.

    First, the lightbulb party has to want to change, and it doesn't. Not towards centrism, anyway.

    Second, there needs to be a big One Nationer, and I'm not convinced there is.
    Boris said he was a Brexity Hezza
    He did say that.

    Boris said many things. I suppose it's possible that some of them were true.
Sign In or Register to comment.