The betting markets are so far unmoved by Starmer’s speech – politicalbetting.com
The betting markets are so far unmoved by Starmer’s speech – politicalbetting.com
I’ve not been able to watch Starmer’s speech due to work commitments so cannot comment upon it yet, a colleague observed earlier on they would expect Starmer to remind the country that he’s a lawyer.
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https://x.com/Acyn/status/1973023822623514725
No 4th.
The party leader will claim today that Keir Starmer’s labelling of his migrant plan as ‘racist’ has endangered the safety of his candidates and activists" (£)
https://www.thetimes.com/article/d1f74fcb-7c9d-4fbe-b553-d55858c3fae0
She certainly looks extremely worried, and no doubt November is bearing down on her and as Sam Coates said the 30 billion shortfall is all of Labour's making, especially as she said her last 40 billion tax raid wiped the slate clean
And that is 70 billion tax rises in less than 18 months
Frightening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEKKLpiALMo
I have to say its quite clever of Reform that they have built a permanent studio so they are able to bypass media and just put out stuff on social media whenever they like.
It does seem like the whole you shut up during other people's conferences has all gone out the window.
Whether the Labour vs Reform tactic will work to tighten the polls, one speech will not change that. Only time and consistency of messaging will tell.
Still. In a funny way I do feel somewhat pleased for SKS that it wasn’t terrible. Everyone deserves a good day in the office now and again.
The class ceiling – smashed.
That’s national renewal. That’s what I fight for every day.
StaLLMer
The line that Starmer has invited Antifa to assassinate Reform politicians will get Mason's eye
For those of us on here, hanging on every monthly update from the ONS, tax rises at the budget are not going to be a surprise, but I think that they're going to be an unpleasant surprise to a lot of people who aren't following so closely.
I thought that the speech was confused and contradictory in places. On the one hand he said that Labour had to avoid falling into the trap of defending the status quo. Then he defended the status quo by arguing at length that Britain wasn't broken.
I am not sure what need they service these days where everybody has iCloud, Google Cloud, OneDrive etc, as well as all the social media apps.
Party political conferences are for tribal speeches, in addition to political, and Farage is the correct target for now. I don't think Starmer went for Farage anything like hard enough, and I hope he makes a suitably blunt response to whatever Farage says. He needs to define
SKS is not a great orator, and it shows.
Listening to Farage's response, he is upset at being called out for what he is.
LOL I see that Nigel is wibbling on about Anfifa, just like Trump (Antifa? In the UK? Where?), and he's shocked, shocked I tell you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2x4dp5xxvo
Antifa, FFS.
Corbyns snail like idiocy has seen them collapse back to 6% from 15%
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1972964678960890290?s=19
Whereas
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1973032556153950392
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAZxDJjWKFQ
It's a stupid idea, especially with the Iowas. Although I would love to see one at sea again. You'd be much better of converting more of the Iowa submarines to be arsenal ships...
I’ve not been able to watch Starmer’s speech due to work commitments so cannot comment upon it yet...
is surely against the spirit of PB, where the reverse usually applies.
The 1-2 bricks they could lob 20 miles had about a 1% chance of a hit. Plus the explosive content was tiny. So guns sucked and were replaced by torpedoes, aircraft bombs and missiles.
The amount of actual armour was a 30% of the displacement, very often, but covered a tiny percentage of the ship’s *sides*. The armour on top or underneath was thin or non-existent. The Royal Navy tried to design a ship with 12 inch deck armour, but getting it to float right side up was a problem.
Further, missiles carrying tons of explosives were appearing. When hardened armour is hit by a huge explosion, it turns into massive fragments that destroy everything. And the rigidity of the armour propagates the shock everywhere. When the RN was worried about the Russians false claims to be completing their battleships, post war, they (the RN) did some tests with Sea Slug (huge anti aircraft missile). Which showed that one hit would utterly wreck a battleship - kick in the side armour, fragment opening compartments etc etc.
So the guns sucked. Get rid of them and replace with missiles or aircraft. The armour was an actual hazard. So get rid of that. And guess what you are left with?
Modern warships.
'Two boys squabbling in the playground'
Why are they animated, when the EU is the kind of woke empire that they would never wish to visit?
https://youtu.be/Rs-zQppucJA?si=EyJ3_4E9lJzaLqko
Fwiw I find 'Britain is broken' to be brainless hyperbole. It plays into that whole pseudo-dynamic language of 'fixing' this and 'fixing' that as if the country is some sort of meccano set or malfunctioning machine. All this does is dumb everything down. It raises unrealistic expectations and implies hard tasks are easy. Pandering to the electorate is actually to disrespect them.
https://x.com/delfoo/status/1972945908146045207
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen).
Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley)
The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
https://youtu.be/oQ9Cp7cM4IA?t=3
As opposed to talking about doing something.
Starmer wasn't too bad today by his pretty low standards. It was, for me, an OK reminder that of all the badly performing circus acts that make up our parties at the moment, Labour is the least worst of those who could form a government. I listened rather than watched, so I missed any compulsory faux flag fluttering that went on among the North Korean element.
Changes to procurement - they can't see a fat budget without trying to steal some of it
An end to whistleblower protections
Open season for bullying and sexual harassment
They assembled 800 of the top brass in the same room for this?
The crazy thing is that there’s actually plenty of 10 cent drugs that somehow manage to cost $100 in the US - that’s 1000x, 100,000% markup.
US healthcare is that screwed, and everyone not directly benefitting from the system knows it.
Meanwhile “Here is the NBC Nightly News, brought to you by Pfizer”.
But it highlights another thing about Starmer. He gets there... the tragedy is that he (or the people who write his words) is so bloody slow and cautious to find the right point.
None of the information in the meeting publiy broadcast - supposedy all of it - was sensitive, which is fairly odd.
There's a lot that's quite odd about this meeting, in both the format and location.
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
Course you were never a Leaver, were you. That is the strongest indicator of Reform switchers from either Con or Lab. And it's why there's a lot more of the former than the latter.
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
He's some how managed to get the Labour party to renact the Last night of the Proms (without the annoying EU flags).
He really is very good at this.
Right now can they revive to challenge for first in 2029? No
Can they revive to challenge for opposition and 100 to 150 seats? Yes
In the good old days, they were an uneasy coalition of red-meat patriots who were proud of it, pointy-headed ideologues who actually read CPS reports and "decent chaps" who considered themselves "not that political, actually". It shouldn't have worked, but it did- mostly because the alternative was some form of ghastly socialism.
It's not obvious that any of them have a place in the current party. Nigel's offering redder meat, there hasn't been a good new idea on the right since the Big Society(!), and decent chaps have gone to fix church roofs with the Lib Dems instead.
So, apart from ancestral memory, what's left? We might get an answer next week, but I doubt it.
I think it's quite reasonable to assume that Robbie Gibb and other May and Johnson-era appointments have affected the tenor of BBC coverage, particularly with what's recently emerged about Gibb's memo encouraging "cultural understanding" of Reform.
Starmer seems to have steadied labour's nerves and I absolutely endorse the idiotic 50% to go to University policy by Blair
However, it does seem that the conference was about spending more and more money and now Reeves is to announce changes in the 2 child cap
Labour are governing as always, and are simply not equipped for today's straightjacket on borrowing
Interesting that Badenoch has again appealed to Starmer to come together to agree reductions in benefits on a cross party basis, which is good politics but he won't listen
She will certainly oppose any increase in the 2 child cap anyway
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
Surely he won't roll over for Nigel Farage. He's going to fight fight fight for that 'people with legitimate concerns about immigration' vote.
Maybe he still has more hope than it's recently appeared. The Thiel and Ellison I.D. cards scheme has to go, however.
Not sure who should be more offended by the comparison, so probably fair, but harsh.
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
He's our expert diagnostician.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
But his point is a generally good one: Russia is experiencing a world of hurt in its energy industry that is going to have massive (and potentially long-term) consequences.