As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
Yes, a good line.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
I agree and she has the opportunity to make her case and I await with interest what she is going to say
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Oh it will stagger on, that’s for sure, but horses vs HIMARS doesn’t seem like a particularly fair fight to me.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
Sadly, my understanding is that there's now a trainline through Southern occupied Ukraine, so the Kerch bridge is less essential to keeping Crimea supplied than it was.
Taking out any given railway line hasn’t proved particularly difficult in the past few weeks, and the symbolism of blowing the bridge makes it well worth spending a billion or two to make it happen.
Yes, but like airfield runways, railway lines can be fairly easily fixed - at least for low-speed, temporary operations. You out a big smoking hole in a line in the morning, and the next morning it'll be up and running again. As the Soviets and Russians relied on rail transport so heavily, they developed a lot of kit and skilled engineers to do exactly that.
Hitting tunnels and bridges are better, but they can also be quite hard to kill.
Edit:; the Russian Railway Troops, who do this work, date back to 1851
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
A USP and identity is required. Economically right wing position and painting/pushing Reform to the left on the economy is one try. They won't out Reform Reform socially or on immigration on the right so they'll have to do it economically/services wise. Be the fiscal anti socialists. Of course they'll need immigration to fade as the burning issue. Which is where the plan hits the skids right now
As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
Yes, a good line.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
I agree and she has the opportunity to make her case and I await with interest what she is going to say
I hope the Tory conference is serious, policy-driven and (civilised) debate driven. That will contrast nicely with all the other parties. They shouldn't spend too much time on Nige either.
As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
Yes, a good line.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
I agree and she has the opportunity to make her case and I await with interest what she is going to say
I hope the Tory conference is serious, policy-driven and (civilised) debate driven. That will contrast nicely with all the other parties. They shouldn't spend too much time on Nige either.
Focusing on Fag Ash Lil is always a mistake, his support aren't going to abandon him based on huffing and puffing from Starmer or Badenoch. Being something else that might be worth voting for is the answer
As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
Yes, a good line.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
I agree and she has the opportunity to make her case and I await with interest what she is going to say
I hope the Tory conference is serious, policy-driven and (civilised) debate driven. That will contrast nicely with all the other parties. They shouldn't spend too much time on Nige either.
Focusing on Fag Ash Lil is always a mistake, his support aren't going to abandon him based on huffing and puffing from Starmer or Badenoch. Being something else that might be worth voting for is the answer
Many disenchanted Labour voters were fed up with the party not going after Farage and calling him out . So the speech today will help in that respect .
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Oh it will stagger on, that’s for sure, but horses vs HIMARS doesn’t seem like a particularly fair fight to me.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
Sadly, my understanding is that there's now a trainline through Southern occupied Ukraine, so the Kerch bridge is less essential to keeping Crimea supplied than it was.
And the bridge can be left open for Russian civilians to escape back to Russia. It is not really viable to reinforce Russian armour because Ukraine has already demonstrated it can hit anything crossing that way.
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
This is a very astute post. The thing about totalitarian regimes is that nothing shows, but when a crack appears in the regime it can travel very fast. Right now, millions of Russians (probably many tens of millions) of Russians dislike the regime for one reason or another: maybe they're living in poverty, or they've lost a child, or they're scared of being conscripted, or they're negatively impacted by sanctions, or whatever.
While stepping out of line is expensive (Russia has a pretty nasty security aparatus), people keep their heads down.
But at some point, resistance happens. And then when one person resists, it lowers the cost for the second.
Cracks can open up very quickly, and regimes which looked so solid can fall remarkably quicky.
Great deal with Big Pharma by Trump. He has got a between 50% and 100% discount for buyers from Pfizer. Does that mean free drugs?
He mentioned 1000% reduction. So if it previously cost $100, in future you will receive $900 with your medication.
He’s saying what he needs to say to get everyone talking about it.
The crazy thing is that there’s actually plenty of 10 cent drugs that somehow manage to cost $100 in the US - that’s 1000x, 100,000% markup.
US healthcare is that screwed, and everyone not directly benefitting from the system knows it.
Meanwhile “Here is the NBC Nightly News, brought to you by Pfizer”.
To be fair, massive gross margins are an inevitable consequence of a world where it costs $20bn to bring a drug to market, and your patent only lasts ten years.
You need to look at this holistically, and work out how to reduce drug development costs alongside reducing the costs to consumers.
As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
Yes, a good line.
It would seem a good time to reveal some of those THOUGHT OUT PLANS that she's been going on about for the last year. The trouble is with the THOUGHT OUT PLAN line though is that if one of her policies has a couple of snags or encounters unexpected opposition, it looks doubly bad. She has set herself up to fail unless she presents A PLAN that is completely unassailable, and I am not sure how likely that is.
I agree and she has the opportunity to make her case and I await with interest what she is going to say
I hope the Tory conference is serious, policy-driven and (civilised) debate driven. That will contrast nicely with all the other parties. They shouldn't spend too much time on Nige either.
Focusing on Fag Ash Lil is always a mistake, his support aren't going to abandon him based on huffing and puffing from Starmer or Badenoch. Being something else that might be worth voting for is the answer
Many disenchanted Labour voters were fed up with the party not going after Farage and calling him out . So the speech today will help in that respect .
In terms of tactical choice, Labour need to decide if they think Farages 30% is a solid chunk of support or if its paper thin. If the latter, confronting him is pointless as the support likely disintegrates anyway and it frees up the Tories from Labours attention to take advantage. If the former then the danger becomes hardening that chunk of support - the 'basket of deplorables' error. Im not sure the 'racist' attack line is the right choice. A 'get real' takedown might be better
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Oh it will stagger on, that’s for sure, but horses vs HIMARS doesn’t seem like a particularly fair fight to me.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
It seems fairly clear the West (except Poland, the U.K. and the Baltics) will reduce support for Ukraine to prevent a repeat of the successful offensive.
Why? The West would benefit - particularly in terms of much cheaper energy - from the collapse of the Putin regime. Indeed, a long drawn our war, where Russian energy exports head towards zero is an absolute disaster for the energy importing countries of Europe.
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Hodges reckons that was Starmer's last conference speech.
Hmmmm...
Hodges also thinks McSweeneygate might be possibly terminal for Starmer. It ought to be for McSweeney but I don't see it as a game over for SKS. Of course the Mail might be sitting on more dirt
Basket of Deplorables I mean its so obviously a stupid line to take. And the whole 'not going to say the word but wink wink' interviews with party members, MPs etc are not good
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Hodges reckons that was Starmer's last conference speech.
Hmmmm...
Hodges also thinks McSweeneygate might be possibly terminal for Starmer. It ought to be for McSweeney but I don't see it as a game over for SKS. Of course the Mail might be sitting on more dirt
maybe part of it is the view that Starmer can't function without McSweeney being sat at the next desk along?
Hodges reckons that was Starmer's last conference speech.
Hmmmm...
Hodges also thinks McSweeneygate might be possibly terminal for Starmer. It ought to be for McSweeney but I don't see it as a game over for SKS. Of course the Mail might be sitting on more dirt
maybe part of it is the view that Starmer can't function without McSweeney being sat at the next desk along?
Yeah.... id separate Starmer going 'because of the scandal' no and 'because no Morgan anymore' maybe
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
This is a very astute post. The thing about totalitarian regimes is that nothing shows, but when a crack appears in the regime it can travel very fast. Right now, millions of Russians (probably many tens of millions) of Russians dislike the regime for one reason or another: maybe they're living in poverty, or they've lost a child, or they're scared of being conscripted, or they're negatively impacted by sanctions, or whatever.
While stepping out of line is expensive (Russia has a pretty nasty security aparatus), people keep their heads down.
But at some point, resistance happens. And then when one person resists, it lowers the cost for the second.
Cracks can open up very quickly, and regimes which looked so solid can fall remarkably quicky.
Maybe (hopefully) now is the time.
Except the Russian experience of regime changes over the last century hasn't provided much of an incentive.
I really don't think the median voter will feel attacked. There's not 50% of the country that are racist.
Maybe a tenth or a quarter might, which is significant and counterproductive perhaps, but not the median.
Of course not . The problem lies with how many on the left define racism - which leaves many very ordinary voters feel they're being labelled as racist quite unfairly.
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
Most of us get fed up with the constant slandering of the average brit by Labour. The UK is one of the least racist countries on the planet. The resort to vacuous name calling just shows Labour slinking back to being the opposition rather than the party of government.
Great deal with Big Pharma by Trump. He has got a between 50% and 100% discount for buyers from Pfizer. Does that mean free drugs?
He mentioned 1000% reduction. So if it previously cost $100, in future you will receive $900 with your medication.
He’s saying what he needs to say to get everyone talking about it.
The crazy thing is that there’s actually plenty of 10 cent drugs that somehow manage to cost $100 in the US - that’s 1000x, 100,000% markup.
US healthcare is that screwed, and everyone not directly benefitting from the system knows it.
Meanwhile “Here is the NBC Nightly News, brought to you by Pfizer”.
To be fair, massive gross margins are an inevitable consequence of a world where it costs $20bn to bring a drug to market, and your patent only lasts ten years.
You need to look at this holistically, and work out how to reduce drug development costs alongside reducing the costs to consumers.
And also, it's complicated by the Byzantine workings of the US healthcare system.
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Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
This actually underlines what Starmer’s saying. You can grow up in Britain. Work hard. Play by the rules. Pay your taxes. Obey the laws. Speak perfect English. Contribute to your community. But in Reform’s eyes, you still don’t belong.
IN the world according to @Keir_Starmer if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.
It seems to be more that the majority of voters think Nigel personally isn't racist and is an all-round good egg, so will presumably feel slighted on his behalf when someone says otherwise. Sir Keir would probably argue that treating Nigel as a national treasure, who it's not the done thing to be beastly about, is a habit we need to wean ourselves off.
This actually underlines what Starmer’s saying. You can grow up in Britain. Work hard. Play by the rules. Pay your taxes. Obey the laws. Speak perfect English. Contribute to your community. But in Reform’s eyes, you still don’t belong.
IN the world according to @Keir_Starmer if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
At some point they need to give up any thought of winning 2029 and start planning to be largest party in 2033/4. Which means in 2029 they probably need 22 to 26%. Playing the economy card obviously wint get them back to pre Truss levels but time and despair with Labour makes that range achievable. Big Sam Survival for 2029, go for Europe 2034
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
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On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
I'm sure he did factor that in, and went ahead anyway. Did you listen to the speech? The 'racism' point was contextualised well, referring to the potential threat to long-term immigrants who are our family, friends, colleagues, NHS workers and so on. It's a fair point, and he made it well.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
Most of us get fed up with the constant slandering of the average brit by Labour. The UK is one of the least racist countries on the planet. The resort to vacuous name calling just shows Labour slinking back to being the opposition rather than the party of government.
You're creating your own reality here. Fair enough, it's all the rage these days.
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
And Labour havent picked it up.
Reeves is completely useless
Suppose, though, she's only a bit useless... the point being that too many people round here go for the simple analysis, the convenient category and the cheap point score. PB used to be subtle, and that was why it had some influence. Not so much when maximal and simplistic views drown out the others.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
Has 'racist' become a taboo word iyo?
Not quite. It can still be used to describe a non-white person attacking a white person just because of the colour of the latter's skin.
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
I'm sure he did factor that in, and went ahead anyway. Did you listen to the speech? The 'racism' point was contextualised well, referring to the potential threat to long-term immigrants who are our family, friends, colleagues, NHS workers and so on. It's a fair point, and he made it well.
I understand the argument. And I understand what he is saying. I think the Reform policy on ILR is the biggest gap in their armour that they’ve exposed so far, so Labour are right to attack it. My point is that going in with the “r” word is high risk strategy from Labour. Used sparingly and effectively it might work. The danger is that for all the caveats, it is easy for opponents to represent it as a “Labour are calling everyone who disagrees with them racist”. That is the risk in an age of instant news and social media.
It is also much riskier advancing that argument against a party with 28-33% support in the polls, rather than 2-5%.
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Teaching an entire generation of teens about Tor and VPNs is going to have exactly zero downsides.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
Not only no surprise, but no change.
Part of Farage's shtick has always been to cross the line and dare people to call him out on it. It's a tedious thing to respond to. If you do, you're picky and pedantic. If you don't, the line moves, again and again, always in the same horrible direction.
The only response that has any chance of working is for the 70% or so who don't want Faragism to pull in roughly the same direction.
This actually underlines what Starmer’s saying. You can grow up in Britain. Work hard. Play by the rules. Pay your taxes. Obey the laws. Speak perfect English. Contribute to your community. But in Reform’s eyes, you still don’t belong.
IN the world according to @Keir_Starmer if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Teaching an entire generation of teens about Tor and VPNs is going to have exactly zero downsides.
What it's going to do is move using a VPN from being something for adult purposes to something required to just ensure a site still makes sense.
There are a number of forums I visit where Imgur is part of the entertainment, it's probably going to result in me needing to install a VPN for my wife as well as just my personal use...
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Teaching an entire generation of teens about Tor and VPNs is going to have exactly zero downsides.
What it's going to do is move using a VPN from being something for adult purposes to something required to just ensure a site still makes sense.
There are a number of forums I visit where Imgur is part of the entertainment, it's probably going to result in me needing to install a VPN for my wife as well as just my personal use...
I use it for watching TV, including RTE who block the UK from the RTE Player...
Also discovered there are some countries that don't allow YouTube advertising, therefore saving myself £ on the YT Premium *waves to you from the Bahamas*
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
At some point they need to give up any thought of winning 2029 and start planning to be largest party in 2033/4. Which means in 2029 they probably need 22 to 26%. Playing the economy card obviously wint get them back to pre Truss levels but time and despair with Labour makes that range achievable. Big Sam Survival for 2029, go for Europe 2034
It's a brave thing to do. Accepting that your role is more John the Baptist than Jesus.
I'm pretty sure Michael Howard recognised it. Did Neil (that speech was 40 years ago) Kinnock? It's possibly what Starmer signed up for, until it all went so wrong...
Has Kemi reached that degree of acceptance? What about Bob? Or most current Conservative MPs?
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
I strongly disagree that the war is existential for Putin and his cabal. I don't see any evidence of an alternative locus of power, I think he's eliminated anyone with the capacity for independent thought.
Saddam was able to hang on in Iraq following defeat in Kuwait and I expect Putin to do the same after losing his war with Ukraine. When Russia does lose I expect the end will come when Putin decides that he needs to withdraw what remains of the Russian army to help preserve his rule.
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Oh it will stagger on, that’s for sure, but horses vs HIMARS doesn’t seem like a particularly fair fight to me.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
It seems fairly clear the West (except Poland, the U.K. and the Baltics) will reduce support for Ukraine to prevent a repeat of the successful offensive.
I think the Scandi countries are all-in behind Ukraine too.
This actually underlines what Starmer’s saying. You can grow up in Britain. Work hard. Play by the rules. Pay your taxes. Obey the laws. Speak perfect English. Contribute to your community. But in Reform’s eyes, you still don’t belong.
IN the world according to @Keir_Starmer if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.
The idea Isabel 'Pig's Head' Oakeshott is capable of thought is indeed laughable.
Was it ever conclusively established whether David Cameron did wave his willy at a pig's head, or even if such an initiation ceremony existed at all? Certainly it doesn't sound like the Cameron we know and love but then nor does the Bullingdon and he was definitely in that.
As much as this was a key moment for Starmer, next weeks Tory conference will be high stakes. The Tories have drifted back by another point or so on average polling despite a slight uptick in Badenochs rating. They need to start a comeback or they risk marginalisation that cannot be reversed. Starmer barely mentioning them is a humbling moment for them but it also presents a possible opportunity - build their voter coalition back up a bit whilst Labour obsess over Farage. 'Last mover' in the conferences might help a bit if there is any interest gained to stick but essentially they have become detached from 20% which is really the minimum to stay in the game. If they can get even minimal traction, throw everything at North Wales, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and the Vale then in Scotland the Borders and Aberdeenshire and the oddball Tory stronger niches like Ayr and Eastwood. They might just about equal Annabels nadir of 15 seats at Holyrood if they have a better end of expectations night (14% in both votes?), in Wales they should probably now just aim for fourth and double figures vote and seats (try and get 2 in both Clwyd and Monmouth/Torfaen). Local elections wise identify which District councils they can hold and focus on that, have a real go at Norfolk/Suffolk mayor and look for 'success' in London - gain Westminster and ine of Barnet/Wandsworth and hold Harrow, Kensington and Hillingdon would be a fair night (losing control of Bexley and Bromley) The point being, all of that and they are hanging on to relevance. They really are in a dreadful state at the moment and oblivion (relatively speaking) is moving from possible to at least as likely as not.
If Farage can wreck their conference with a big defectionit might tip it to more likely than not
The only way the Tories can revive is by mainlining from Farage which she can't and won't do so no one will notice what she does. Short of a strip tease at the podium I can think of nothing that will grab the outside audience's attention. They are currently a dead parrot
You can get a hint of her approach when she described Starmer v Farage as '2 boys squabbling in the playground'
Also labour need a conservative recovery otherwise it will be Farage in no 10
I heard that. I didn't think patronising was the way to go for her particularly as her reputation is veering towards 'the head prefect' She absolutely needs a lighter touch. More Mrs May less Ann Widdicombe
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
I'm sure he did factor that in, and went ahead anyway. Did you listen to the speech? The 'racism' point was contextualised well, referring to the potential threat to long-term immigrants who are our family, friends, colleagues, NHS workers and so on. It's a fair point, and he made it well.
I understand the argument. And I understand what he is saying. I think the Reform policy on ILR is the biggest gap in their armour that they’ve exposed so far, so Labour are right to attack it. My point is that going in with the “r” word is high risk strategy from Labour. Used sparingly and effectively it might work. The danger is that for all the caveats, it is easy for opponents to represent it as a “Labour are calling everyone who disagrees with them racist”. That is the risk in an age of instant news and social media.
It is also much riskier advancing that argument against a party with 28-33% support in the polls, rather than 2-5%.
I agree it's a risky strategy, and I agree that Starmer's words will be misquoted and distorted. But what he is trying to do is address not the 30-40% who may or will vote Reform but the 60% or so who won't. in the end both Labour and sanity need a lot of people to vote tactically. In a lot of cases that's Labour. He can't say that but that is the effective implication of morally isolating Reform.
The real problem is with the Tories. Do they join with Lab, LD etc in isolating Reform or not. Probably not.
Electorally, looking at 2029 I suspect Labour's real tactic is twofold. One, identify and mobilise the 60% who won't vote Reform. Two, ensure that the Tory vote impinges on the Reform vote, and vice versa. If either Tory of Reform collect all the right leaning votes, they win. If they split with, say low 20s % points each, they don't. For Labour to win, they need to do better, and they need the Tories to do better too. He will never say so, but read between the lines of today's speech. No real attack on the Tories.
I see the Mail is whipping it's readers into a frenzy about Lammy's "crazy" comments on Farage's teenage fascist dabblings, and mentioning to none of them that these reports have been circulating for years online anyway, and as a result of Farage's ex-teacher at Dulwich college, not Labour.
There are plenty of other stories about his far-right school days,too.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
I'm sure he did factor that in, and went ahead anyway. Did you listen to the speech? The 'racism' point was contextualised well, referring to the potential threat to long-term immigrants who are our family, friends, colleagues, NHS workers and so on. It's a fair point, and he made it well.
He did indeed hit the correct balance in the speech.
But he is still naive to the point of being a fool in not understanding that they will be clipped to 15-30 second soundbites that will further depress his ratings.
"Britons split on whether they would prefer Labour or Reform UK to win the next election
If given a choice between the Labour party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are split on which party they would prefer to win the next General Election. 38% say the Labour party led by Keir Starmer, while 35% say Reform UK led by Nigel Farage."
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
At some point they need to give up any thought of winning 2029 and start planning to be largest party in 2033/4. Which means in 2029 they probably need 22 to 26%. Playing the economy card obviously wint get them back to pre Truss levels but time and despair with Labour makes that range achievable. Big Sam Survival for 2029, go for Europe 2034
It's a brave thing to do. Accepting that your role is more John the Baptist than Jesus.
I'm pretty sure Michael Howard recognised it. Did Neil (that speech was 40 years ago) Kinnock? It's possibly what Starmer signed up for, until it all went so wrong...
Has Kemi reached that degree of acceptance? What about Bob? Or most current Conservative MPs?
This is very much the problem. I think they think they can win 250 seats and lead a minority government. Not happening. Exceeding 150 seats would be miraculous from here, exceeding 120 a pretty good result
I see the Mail is whipping it's readers into a frenzy about Lammy's "crazy" comments on Farage's teenage fascist dabblings, and mentioning to none of them that these reports have been circulating for years online anyway, and as a result of Farage's ex-teacher at Dulwich college, not Labour.
There are plenty of other stories about his far-right school days,too.
Labour committimg a cardinal sin. If you need to couch and qualify your attack youre losing
Not a very good day for Starmer, but a fantastic one for Farage.
The usual PB Tory wishcasters seem to believe it was a good day for them too. Unless they concede and join Reform, I am not sure how.
The jury is out on all of that
Let's see where the polls settle post the conservative conference
I hope Badenoch rises above all the name calling, and lays out her policies on the cost of living, immigration, NHS, education, welfare, taxes, and support for businesses who generate the growth everyone wants
If she is wise she needs to be 'the grown up' and avoid name calling because these are the issues the public want answers to, not anything else
The Cons big structural problem is they've lost their USP as safe with the economy.
At some point they need to give up any thought of winning 2029 and start planning to be largest party in 2033/4. Which means in 2029 they probably need 22 to 26%. Playing the economy card obviously wint get them back to pre Truss levels but time and despair with Labour makes that range achievable. Big Sam Survival for 2029, go for Europe 2034
It's a brave thing to do. Accepting that your role is more John the Baptist than Jesus.
I'm pretty sure Michael Howard recognised it. Did Neil (that speech was 40 years ago) Kinnock? It's possibly what Starmer signed up for, until it all went so wrong...
Has Kemi reached that degree of acceptance? What about Bob? Or most current Conservative MPs?
There are a range of people who want the Tories to do better than they currently are. Including:
The Tories, otherwise they enter oblivion and Reform take over the right and the country. The majority of the public - the 60% who don't want Reform still need two parties for elections who can win. And most of all Labour, who can (IMO) only win in 2029 if they both do a lot better themselves , and the Tories take quite a lot of votes off Reform on current polling, splitting about equally the rightist vote.
It’s much worse than they’re letting on, Ukranian “kinetic sanctions” are working, and the russian economy is going to be totally screwed if they have to import fuel for the winter, if they even find anyone to sell it to them.
The queues for petrol are already damn close to Moscow, and RT propogandists were talking this morning about the benefits of battlefield cavalry, because they’re out of proper vehicles.
What is it they say about things happening slowly, then happening quickly?
No - I expect that Russia will continue to wage war in ever more broken back fashion
It’s existential for the Russian leadership. If they are not seen to win on the terms of their own irredentist nationalism - obliterating the independence of Ukraine - they will be out the window. Not just Putin, but the whole apparatus around him.
The Russian government under Putin has enough grasp on power to maintain power. And, further, they understand that they will either hang together or hang separately.
So it will stagger on.
Oh it will stagger on, that’s for sure, but horses vs HIMARS doesn’t seem like a particularly fair fight to me.
Half a dozen well-placed Tomahawks on the Kerch Bridge and they’re left fighting with whose army?
It seems fairly clear the West (except Poland, the U.K. and the Baltics) will reduce support for Ukraine to prevent a repeat of the successful offensive.
Why? The West would benefit - particularly in terms of much cheaper energy - from the collapse of the Putin regime. Indeed, a long drawn our war, where Russian energy exports head towards zero is an absolute disaster for the energy importing countries of Europe.
A lot of people in the West, including many European leaders (and Biden when he was US President) are trapped between a fear of Russian victory and a fear of Russian defeat.
The only way out for them is for Putin to cash out on the gains he's made so far, but he isn't willing to oblige them.
The West desperately needs a leader with the clarity of Boris Johnson (or at least his speechwriter) to lead the rest on a policy of Russia losing and being seen to lose.
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
OSA
first blood to OSA
The unintended consequences slowly take effect - not that I will notice from "Ireland"...
Teaching an entire generation of teens about Tor and VPNs is going to have exactly zero downsides.
What it's going to do is move using a VPN from being something for adult purposes to something required to just ensure a site still makes sense.
There are a number of forums I visit where Imgur is part of the entertainment, it's probably going to result in me needing to install a VPN for my wife as well as just my personal use...
Replace your current router with a Unifi one. Setup a VPN client connection from your router to a reliable VPN provider (like Proton). Setup traffic rules on the router to ensure that communication with imgur is over the VPN.
On the racism stuff, Starmer chose his words very carefully. He did not throw the racism allegation at Reform, Farage, or Reform voters. It was aimed at one specific Reform policy - namely the threat to retrospectively deport some people who have already been granted ILR or settled status or whatever you want to call it. He explicitly said that it is not racist to want to control our borders, or to deport those who are here illegally or have committed serious crimes.
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
If he said it and didn’t factor in the risk of being misrepresented on that point, he’s a fool.
I'm sure he did factor that in, and went ahead anyway. Did you listen to the speech? The 'racism' point was contextualised well, referring to the potential threat to long-term immigrants who are our family, friends, colleagues, NHS workers and so on. It's a fair point, and he made it well.
I understand the argument. And I understand what he is saying. I think the Reform policy on ILR is the biggest gap in their armour that they’ve exposed so far, so Labour are right to attack it. My point is that going in with the “r” word is high risk strategy from Labour. Used sparingly and effectively it might work. The danger is that for all the caveats, it is easy for opponents to represent it as a “Labour are calling everyone who disagrees with them racist”. That is the risk in an age of instant news and social media.
It is also much riskier advancing that argument against a party with 28-33% support in the polls, rather than 2-5%.
I agree it's a risky strategy, and I agree that Starmer's words will be misquoted and distorted. But what he is trying to do is address not the 30-40% who may or will vote Reform but the 60% or so who won't. in the end both Labour and sanity need a lot of people to vote tactically. In a lot of cases that's Labour. He can't say that but that is the effective implication of morally isolating Reform.
The real problem is with the Tories. Do they join with Lab, LD etc in isolating Reform or not. Probably not.
Electorally, looking at 2029 I suspect Labour's real tactic is twofold. One, identify and mobilise the 60% who won't vote Reform. Two, ensure that the Tory vote impinges on the Reform vote, and vice versa. If either Tory of Reform collect all the right leaning votes, they win. If they split with, say low 20s % points each, they don't. For Labour to win, they need to do better, and they need the Tories to do better too. He will never say so, but read between the lines of today's speech. No real attack on the Tories.
I suspect for once Starmer is right, and a very, very indignant Farage took the bait. Having said that his angry broadcast was highly polished.
I see the only way it goes wrong for Starmer is if Antifa assassinate a Reform politician. Maybe even a Reform politician who has fallen out bigly with Nigel. Should that happen both Starmer and Labour are finished.
Linking Kirk's assassination to Starmer was quite a clever leap, if a little unhinged.
Starting to pick up some concern from Labour MPs, particularly Red Wall MPs, that the attacks on Farage may have gone over the top. Worried the distinction between attacking Reform and attacking their voters is going to be lost. David Lammy coming in for serious criticism."
Imgur access in the United Kingdom From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
Imgur blocks access to UK users after regulator warned of fine ... The UK's data watchdog, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), said it recently notified the platform's parent company, MediaLab AI, of plans to fine Imgur after probing its approach to age checks and use of children's personal data. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzxv5gy3qo
"Imgur's decision to restrict access in the UK is a commercial decision taken by the company and not a result of any action taken by Ofcom," an Ofcom spokesperson told the BBC.
Talk about disingenuous...
Regulators who refuse to recognise the downside of regulation aren't fit for purpose.
Comments
https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/1973067306625368188
Hitting tunnels and bridges are better, but they can also be quite hard to kill.
Edit:; the Russian Railway Troops, who do this work, date back to 1851
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops
Of course they'll need immigration to fade as the burning issue. Which is where the plan hits the skids right now
While stepping out of line is expensive (Russia has a pretty nasty security aparatus), people keep their heads down.
But at some point, resistance happens. And then when one person resists, it lowers the cost for the second.
Cracks can open up very quickly, and regimes which looked so solid can fall remarkably quicky.
Maybe (hopefully) now is the time.
Hmmmm...
You need to look at this holistically, and work out how to reduce drug development costs alongside reducing the costs to consumers.
Im not sure the 'racist' attack line is the right choice. A 'get real' takedown might be better
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked
By Ben Walker"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2025/09/crying-racism-only-hurts-labour
Imgur access in the United Kingdom
From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available. UK users will not be able to log in, view content, or upload images. Imgur content embedded on third-party sites will not display for UK users.
It ought to be for McSweeney but I don't see it as a game over for SKS. Of course the Mail might be sitting on more dirt
I mean its so obviously a stupid line to take. And the whole 'not going to say the word but wink wink' interviews with party members, MPs etc are not good
Maybe a tenth or a quarter might, which is significant and counterproductive perhaps, but not the median.
A. Making sure the handbrake is on.
This article gives a taste of that.
The Role of Pharmacy Benefit Managers and Skyrocketing Cost of Medications
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11482839/
Reeves is completely useless
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
This actually underlines what Starmer’s saying. You can grow up in Britain. Work hard. Play by the rules. Pay your taxes. Obey the laws. Speak perfect English. Contribute to your community. But in Reform’s eyes, you still don’t belong.
Quote
Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
IN the world according to @Keir_Starmer if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1973085927674138791
Big Sam Survival for 2029, go for Europe 2034
Farage, in the video I've seen, is deliberately misrepresenting what Starmer said. No surprise, though.
...
The UK's data watchdog, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), said it recently notified the platform's parent company, MediaLab AI, of plans to fine Imgur after probing its approach to age checks and use of children's personal data.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzxv5gy3qo
Talk about disingenuous...
https://bsky.app/profile/klasfeldreports.com/post/3m22xtv6w2x2i
It is also much riskier advancing that argument against a party with 28-33% support in the polls, rather than 2-5%.
Times Radio Politics"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aerJAzAMaCY
Part of Farage's shtick has always been to cross the line and dare people to call him out on it. It's a tedious thing to respond to. If you do, you're picky and pedantic. If you don't, the line moves, again and again, always in the same horrible direction.
The only response that has any chance of working is for the 70% or so who don't want Faragism to pull in roughly the same direction.
Over to you, remaining Conservatives.
The idea Isabel 'Pig's Head' Oakeshott is capable of thought is indeed laughable.
There are a number of forums I visit where Imgur is part of the entertainment, it's probably going to result in me needing to install a VPN for my wife as well as just my personal use...
A judge so stupid as to think the USA has a magnificent constitution? That's incredible...
https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1973096381024715091
Also discovered there are some countries that don't allow YouTube advertising, therefore saving myself £ on the YT Premium *waves to you from the Bahamas*
Was it actually written by someone called Sir Anthony Charles Lynton-Blair?
Asking for a friend.
I'm pretty sure Michael Howard recognised it. Did Neil (that speech was 40 years ago) Kinnock? It's possibly what Starmer signed up for, until it all went so wrong...
Has Kemi reached that degree of acceptance? What about Bob? Or most current Conservative MPs?
Accrington StanleyThe Tories, Who are they?Saddam was able to hang on in Iraq following defeat in Kuwait and I expect Putin to do the same after losing his war with Ukraine. When Russia does lose I expect the end will come when Putin decides that he needs to withdraw what remains of the Russian army to help preserve his rule.
His name is 'Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair.' No hyphen.
1. To be in Naples
And
2. To write about the latest technology: AirPods3
And also
3. They bought me my new AirPods3
What are you doing?
I can't bear them (except for one nation Tories, and there are not many of them left) but they are top dogs compared to Team Farage.
P.S. I did get the Milk Marketing Board ad reference.
🤷🏼♂️
The real problem is with the Tories. Do they join with Lab, LD etc in isolating Reform or not. Probably not.
Electorally, looking at 2029 I suspect Labour's real tactic is twofold. One, identify and mobilise the 60% who won't vote Reform. Two, ensure that the Tory vote impinges on the Reform vote, and vice versa. If either Tory of Reform collect all the right leaning votes, they win. If they split with, say low 20s % points each, they don't.
For Labour to win, they need to do better, and they need the Tories to do better too. He will never say so, but read between the lines of today's speech. No real attack on the Tories.
There are plenty of other stories about his far-right school days,too.
But he is still naive to the point of being a fool in not understanding that they will be clipped to 15-30 second soundbites that will further depress his ratings.
If given a choice between the Labour party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are split on which party they would prefer to win the next General Election. 38% say the Labour party led by Keir Starmer, while 35% say Reform UK led by Nigel Farage."
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/britons-split-whether-they-would-prefer-labour-or-reform-uk-win-next-election
He was busy rambling, so clearly had not a clue what any of the twenty points were, let alone who Blair was.
Not happening. Exceeding 150 seats would be miraculous from here, exceeding 120 a pretty good result
The Tories, otherwise they enter oblivion and Reform take over the right and the country.
The majority of the public - the 60% who don't want Reform still need two parties for elections who can win.
And most of all Labour, who can (IMO) only win in 2029 if they both do a lot better themselves , and the Tories take quite a lot of votes off Reform on current polling, splitting about equally the rightist vote.
The only way out for them is for Putin to cash out on the gains he's made so far, but he isn't willing to oblige them.
The West desperately needs a leader with the clarity of Boris Johnson (or at least his speechwriter) to lead the rest on a policy of Russia losing and being seen to lose.
I see the only way it goes wrong for Starmer is if Antifa assassinate a Reform politician. Maybe even a Reform politician who has fallen out bigly with Nigel. Should that happen both Starmer and Labour are finished.
Linking Kirk's assassination to Starmer was quite a clever leap, if a little unhinged.
@DPJHodges
Starting to pick up some concern from Labour MPs, particularly Red Wall MPs, that the attacks on Farage may have gone over the top. Worried the distinction between attacking Reform and attacking their voters is going to be lost. David Lammy coming in for serious criticism."
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1973097181344108625
That of course applies to government, too.
Meanwhile.
London slips out of the world’s top 20 IPO markets as the third quarter ends, overtaken by Mexico
https://x.com/business/status/1972992900758692114