It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
Odd that France can expel asylum seekers without convoluted one-in-one-out schemes, but the UK can't.
Starting to seem the the ECHR only applies to Britain...
No.
It’s the judicial philosophy - which is part of the mentality of government.
In France, the State has a strong, deep belief, in The Good Of The State. So you often see, in judicial rulings, that the good of the polity has a weight that can out weigh The Good of The Individual.
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From last month.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
Odd that France can expel asylum seekers without convoluted one-in-one-out schemes, but the UK can't.
Starting to seem the the ECHR only applies to Britain...
No.
It’s the judicial philosophy - which is part of the mentality of government.
In France, the State has a strong, deep belief, in The Good Of The State. So you often see, in judicial rulings, that the good of the polity has a weight that can out weigh The Good of The Individual.
There's balances to be struck. As with quite a few areas, our balance may be somewhat askew even if there's a lot of good intent.
It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
By that link it appears we struggle to send back Indians though, very small number ever get sent back. Albania and Romania are the vast bulk as the previous government did dedicated deals with them.
But overall it is still very small numbers. And the low hanging fruit of Albanians I think will dry up as far fewer Albanians are going via boats and attempting to claim Asylum under dubious claims of modern slavery.
It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
By that link it appears we struggle to send back Indians though, very small number ever get sent back. Albania and Romania are the vast bulk as the previous government did dedicated deals with them.
But overall it is still very small numbers.
That's enforced returns. If you look at the next section on voluntary returns...
In the year ending March 2025 there were 26,388 voluntary returns, up by 19% compared to the year ending March 2024. As shown in Figure 1, voluntary return numbers have continued to rise following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and now exceed pre-pandemic levels, although are still below the levels in the first half of the previous decade.
Together, voluntary returns of Indians (7,339), Brazilians (4,629) and Albanians (2,395) accounted for just over half (54%) of all voluntary returns in the year ending March 2025. Indian and Brazilian voluntary returns have increased by 48% and 64% respectively compared to the year ending March 2024, however voluntary returns of Albanians have decreased by 37% over the same period.
Labour, building on what Sunak was doing, have been reducing net immigration, speeding up asylum processing, and getting more failed asylum seekers out of the country. The rhetoric has not, however, caught up with this.
It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
By that link it appears we struggle to send back Indians though, very small number ever get sent back. Albania and Romania are the vast bulk as the previous government did dedicated deals with them.
But overall it is still very small numbers.
That's enforced returns. If you look at the next section on voluntary returns...
In the year ending March 2025 there were 26,388 voluntary returns, up by 19% compared to the year ending March 2024. As shown in Figure 1, voluntary return numbers have continued to rise following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and now exceed pre-pandemic levels, although are still below the levels in the first half of the previous decade.
Together, voluntary returns of Indians (7,339), Brazilians (4,629) and Albanians (2,395) accounted for just over half (54%) of all voluntary returns in the year ending March 2025. Indian and Brazilian voluntary returns have increased by 48% and 64% respectively compared to the year ending March 2024, however voluntary returns of Albanians have decreased by 37% over the same period.
Well that begs the question why the UK are agreeing to sending an Indian to France to get deported via this scheme, if we could use the same voluntary nudge.
Hold on "Voluntary Returns" is a really wide category,
Our statistics categorise voluntary returns in 3 different ways: those made with assistance from the Home Office, including via the Voluntary Returns Service (‘assisted returns’); returns made where the Home Office was notified of the departure, in the form of self-funded (‘controlled’) returns; and those discovered through matching our database against passenger departures data (‘other verified returns’).
So it can mean all sorts of things i.e. somebody who was an overstayer has gone by their own choice for whatever reason gets ticked on the passenger departure data and included in these numbers. Its impossible to tell how much is government "nudge" and how much is it that people went home because they decided the UK wasn't for them, family issues at home, etc.
It makes sense now about the Indian chap being sent back...
It is understood the French requested an Indian migrant, so that they could offer him voluntary return to his homeland under a scheme where the French government pays the airfare and offers €2,500 (£2,168). If the migrant refuses, he is likely to face expulsion from the country rather than be granted asylum, as France has a reciprocal arrangement with India to accept enforced returns.
By that link it appears we struggle to send back Indians though, very small number ever get sent back. Albania and Romania are the vast bulk as the previous government did dedicated deals with them.
But overall it is still very small numbers.
That's enforced returns. If you look at the next section on voluntary returns...
In the year ending March 2025 there were 26,388 voluntary returns, up by 19% compared to the year ending March 2024. As shown in Figure 1, voluntary return numbers have continued to rise following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and now exceed pre-pandemic levels, although are still below the levels in the first half of the previous decade.
Together, voluntary returns of Indians (7,339), Brazilians (4,629) and Albanians (2,395) accounted for just over half (54%) of all voluntary returns in the year ending March 2025. Indian and Brazilian voluntary returns have increased by 48% and 64% respectively compared to the year ending March 2024, however voluntary returns of Albanians have decreased by 37% over the same period.
Well that begs the question why the UK are agreeing to sending an Indian to France to get deported via this scheme, if we could use the same voluntary nudge.
Presumably he fit this scheme well. It's not a problem that we have more than one route to use!
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From July.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
Hold on "Voluntary Returns" is a really wide category,
Our statistics categorise voluntary returns in 3 different ways: those made with assistance from the Home Office, including via the Voluntary Returns Service (‘assisted returns’); returns made where the Home Office was notified of the departure, in the form of self-funded (‘controlled’) returns; and those discovered through matching our database against passenger departures data (‘other verified returns’).
So it can mean all sorts of things i.e. somebody who was an overstayer has gone by their own choice for whatever reason gets ticked on the passenger departure data and included in these numbers.
So, what's your point? You want illegal immigrants out of the country, but you're unhappy they don't all leave in the same precise manner?
Jezza and his mates should be very worried that Sultana doesn't take her toys off and head for the Green Party.
Polanski-Sultana would be a very formidable comms presentation.
She's very social media.
Owen Jones and chums would lap this up. Gen Z will be wetting themselves over their oatmilk lattes and tiktok vids.
Now maybe she is impossible to work with and it would be a disaster I have no idea. And FWIW I think Ramsey will be proved right in medium term about green electoral strategy and actually getting MPs rather than 'winning the argument' etc.
If it hadn’t been for Lord Alli, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney, Louise Haig, Rushunara Ali, Mike Amesbury, Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden letting him down, I think Sir Keir would’ve been doing alright
If it hadn’t been for Lord Alli, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney, Louise Haig, Rushunara Ali, Mike Amesbury, Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden letting him down, I think Sir Keir would’ve been doing alright
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Yes, because it was 9 years ago. If Starmer announced a second ref it would be straight to the top. Honestly it's not a bad shout - would completely upend the narrative. They might go for it if they are sub-15%.
Hold on "Voluntary Returns" is a really wide category,
Our statistics categorise voluntary returns in 3 different ways: those made with assistance from the Home Office, including via the Voluntary Returns Service (‘assisted returns’); returns made where the Home Office was notified of the departure, in the form of self-funded (‘controlled’) returns; and those discovered through matching our database against passenger departures data (‘other verified returns’).
So it can mean all sorts of things i.e. somebody who was an overstayer has gone by their own choice for whatever reason gets ticked on the passenger departure data and included in these numbers.
So, what's your point? You want illegal immigrants out of the country, but you're unhappy they don't all leave in the same precise manner?
You started with "Britain does expel lots of asylum seekers successfully."
Voluntary returns under the government definitions are not the government expelling people.
The number of people expelled is very small and dominated by two groups, who aren't arriving via boats anymore (or at least handing themselves in to claim Asylum).
My original point was do France get to choose who they take. Do the UK get the same courtesy. And will France only take easy cases like Indians they immediately send home i.e. they aren't really taking on the "problem". It seems like the UK should be sending "easy" cases directly home and both France and UK takes their share of more difficult cases with those with connection to UK come to the UK.
If it hadn’t been for Lord Alli, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney, Louise Haig, Rushunara Ali, Mike Amesbury, Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden letting him down, I think Sir Keir would’ve been doing alright
Not with Reeves as COE
He needs to sack the person who makes these unwise appointments
It's interesting even the Telegraph are pointing out Reform's poisonous reality/science denying bullshit will not only kill people but ruin the economy.
I have to say, seems to be hell of a lot of negativity about Starmer on here, but at the end of the day he's played a blinder with this Trump visit, successfully driving around a number of IDEs in the road.
If it hadn’t been for Lord Alli, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney, Louise Haig, Rushunara Ali, Mike Amesbury, Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden letting him down, I think Sir Keir would’ve been doing alright
Not with Reeves as COE
He needs to sack the person who makes these unwise appointments
My son lived and worked in Christchurch when it was struck with the catastrophic earthquake in 2011
His company decided to move to Brisbane and he had to sack all the employees and then himself !!!!!
Hmmph. The writer had to totally invert Burke to make his point. The fact that he points that out and then spends much of the article inverting Burke doesn't make things better. He could just have said "If 'Burkean' means the opposite of what it usually means, then Farage is Burkean, yeah?" and made his point a lot faster.
... Danny Kruger, until last week one of the Conservative Party’s few serious thinkers ...
I keep hearing that. Just so I'm clear - is that a universally accepted truth?
Its what the current narrative woukd like us to accept. Danny Kruger was a giant amongst shit flinging thickos
I could buy the serious thinker thing on the basis that he did technically have ideas. Ideas many would not like, but most politicians actively try to avoid ideas, and you don't really need them to get elected much of the time.
Danny Kruger is Farage's Keith Joseph.
Discuss.
Never heard of him, I'm afraid. Anything before the 90s is a real haze for me until you get to the 17th century.
Joseph was very much regarded as Maggie's brain at the time - even got a mention in some 'A' Level sociology crammers - but he's an almost forgotten figure now. Probably hasn't helped that the economic liberalism he espoused is now utterly decried by both the British and American Right.
The question is perhaps does Farage need a Joseph?
Or will fag-packet made-up saloon bar snake oil be sufficient?
Thatcher rose to power in an era when it was at least taken with some seriousness that anyone wanting to be PM should have some kind of intellectual case.
Immigration and immigration alone has been the reason for Nigel's success up to this point. He'll keep playing that card for as long as he can, but what if he actually eradicates immigration? What then? I get the strange feeling that some sort of 'Make Britain a Nation of Christians Again' might be where he goes next, but that will probably be several years off.
Most people wouldn't have a problem with 50k-100k immigration a year, which is what we used to have until about 20 years ago.
And an absolute disaster for this country and its way of life if that is maintained.
These people are Trump 2.0 UK branch and they will attempt to DOGE, by-pass democracy, get rid of civil service, wreck the rule of law and independent judges, end an independent Bank of England, neuter the press, finish the BBC, curtail local democracy, offer a red carpet to Putin and so on and on and on.
They have no ideas other than to copy Trump and that is what they will be elected to do and unless the alternatives can get their act together.
Wow. Reform are delirious on poll leads at the moment, but I get the impression that's mainly because everyone hates all the other lot, not because everyone's particularly besotted with them. We're in an era where such poll leads can evaporate overnight, as Theresa can attest. Reform must be careful not to treat them as banked capital.
Wow. Reform are delirious on poll leads at the moment, but I get the impression that's mainly because everyone hates all the other lot, not because everyone's particularly besotted with them. We're in an era where such poll leads can evaporate overnight, as Theresa can attest. Reform must be careful not to treat them as banked capital.
Or the others need to understand why and get their acts together
"Ignore those who say France is finished. It is as lovely as ever Drug gangs and mounting debt have cast the country in a poor light, but its wine festivals, unspoilt countryside and first-rate food remain
"Ignore those who say France is finished. It is as lovely as ever Drug gangs and mounting debt have cast the country in a poor light, but its wine festivals, unspoilt countryside and first-rate food remain
"Ignore those who say France is finished. It is as lovely as ever Drug gangs and mounting debt have cast the country in a poor light, but its wine festivals, unspoilt countryside and first-rate food remain
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From July.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
I thought you got all misty eyed about the honest toil of writing, in freedom, some scratchings for the Knapper, or liked to wander around London and enjoy the young as they cavort and mingle in simple pleasures free from the watchful eye of some guy with a mask and a gun.
Reform will bring this to England. They are not your friend.
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From July.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
I thought you got all misty eyed about the honest toil of writing, in freedom, some scratchings for the Knapper, or liked to wander around London and enjoy the young as they cavort and mingle in simple pleasures free from the watchful eye of some guy with a mask and a gun.
Reform will bring this to England. They are not your friend.
Perhaps he'll be employed by the regime, writing Farage eulogies for the masked men to recite at sunrise.
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From July.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
We need to see more polling and post Trump's visit but if Labour slip to 4th below Lib Dems I simply do not see how they recover under Starmer
And we have Reeves to come in November
I see she is already blaming the Tories but that is not going to wash anymore
Liam Byrne's humourous note kept successive Tory Governments in the fiscal probity fast lane from 2010 to Truss's 2022 budget. So the Tories potentially have another eleven years on bricks on the hard shoulder.
We need to see more polling and post Trump's visit but if Labour slip to 4th below Lib Dems I simply do not see how they recover under Starmer
And we have Reeves to come in November
I see she is already blaming the Tories but that is not going to wash anymore
Liam Byrne's humourous note kept successive Tory Governments in the fiscal probity fast lane from 2010 to Truss's 2022 budget. So the Tories potentially have another eleven years on bricks on the hard shoulder.
Labour have fallen so far so fast it is on them now to show how they rectify their job destroying budget in 2024 and increasingly the last lot is losing its pottency
I see PB is getting overexcited by the pollster that consistently has Labour doing the worst, every other pollster this month has Labour polling in the 20s.
Labour need to hurry up and get the EU UK deal agreed and need to stop dragging their heels over the youth mobility scheme. I expect the two child cap will go paid for by more gambling taxes in November .
As bad as the polls are they’ll get worse if they continue to ignore the left and those pro EU .
That’s right, the solution to Labour’s woes is more immigration. Hah!
Bluntly put no one cares if younger white Europeans have more freedom for a time limited period . The current furore is about the boats and non white people. The youth mobility scheme has strong majority support in polling .
In this febrile atmosphere any suggestion of increasing immigration would be very brave
Sky reporting Trump launched into a tirade against Sadiq Khan on the flight home
The febrile atmosphere is about the boats . The pool of people who think Brexit was a disaster is close to 60% , Labour need to start fishing there. Only 16% in YouGov don’t want closer links with the EU.
Boats and immigration and cost of living and inflation and high taxes
Last time I looked Brexit hardly registered
Not quite.
From July.
When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman@georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list,
And an absolute disaster for this country and its way of life if that is maintained.
These people are Trump 2.0 UK branch and they will attempt to DOGE, by-pass democracy, get rid of civil service, wreck the rule of law and independent judges, end an independent Bank of England, neuter the press, finish the BBC, curtail local democracy, offer a red carpet to Putin and so on and on and on.
They have no ideas other than to copy Trump and that is what they will be elected to do and unless the alternatives can get their act together.
My main hope is that as they are all so inept, they manage to do none of those things. I still think of Farage and his many parties as the old "It's a Knock Out!". Very, very popular - but basically celebrating laughable incompetence.
And I still think if we'd brought "It's a Knock Out!" back in about 2005 with Nigel as the slightly p*sssed but jovial host - laughing at the Belgians - we're be in a much better place.
I thought you got all misty eyed about the honest toil of writing, in freedom, some scratchings for the Knapper, or liked to wander around London and enjoy the young as they cavort and mingle in simple pleasures free from the watchful eye of some guy with a mask and a gun.
Reform will bring this to England. They are not your friend.
Perhaps he'll be employed by the regime, writing Farage eulogies for the masked men to recite at sunrise.
As the sun set I stood briefly to salute the end of another day in england's great river journey, the ice cubes in my glass of victory gin jostling for a last look at the fading light before the Sardinian lemons floated to the surface.
It was then, as the first tears rolled down my face yet again over the astonishing victory of our Nigel against all the odds that I realised I was an hour late for a flight to Obscuria Land and HR terminal 5 might not have kept a further gin on ice for me. Hurriedly I returned to my flat where it was difficult to find the required luggage and passport due to everything being painted black or midnight blue.
And yet, despite these travails, I think Nigel's first months in office have been truly outstanding.
It has been such a triumph that sometimes I can even forget I voted for Labour in 2024.
Watching Question Time - when did Piers Morgan become a big Trump fan? I must have missed the transition.
Piers Morgan appeared in a celeberity verson of Trump's The Apprentice and won it back in 2008 so they have been friends for years, and its definitely helped Piers Morgan get access to Trump for interviews years later. But Piers did become a vocal critic of Trump's stewardship of the covid outbreak in the US.
Reform gain Trowbridge in Cardiff, LDs beat Labour for second
Lab 615 LD 681 Plaid 223 Propel 63 Con 90 Green 67 Reform 1142
Reform GAIN from Labour
It's going to be a blood bath for labour in Senedd 2026 if this continues
If they cant even hold second in Cardiff.......
Could Reform actually win most seats
Its all very surreal ?
They probably will, their geographic spread will be better than Plaids. Tories need to turn their vote out in pembroke, clwyd, monmouth, aberconwy, gower, flintshire and the Vale and hunt Labour down for third
Reform gain Trowbridge in Cardiff, LDs beat Labour for second
Lab 615 LD 681 Plaid 223 Propel 63 Con 90 Green 67 Reform 1142
Reform GAIN from Labour
It's going to be a blood bath for labour in Senedd 2026 if this continues
If they cant even hold second in Cardiff.......
Could Reform actually win most seats
Its all very surreal ?
They probably will, their geographic spread will be better than Plaids. Tories need to turn their vote out in pembroke, clwyd, monmouth, aberconwy, gower, flintshire and the Vale and hunt Labour down for third
Reform gain Trowbridge in Cardiff, LDs beat Labour for second
Lab 615 LD 681 Plaid 223 Propel 63 Con 90 Green 67 Reform 1142
Reform GAIN from Labour
That is quite a low vote for Plaid considering that YouGov Welsh poll that was just published, or is this area not popular territory for them?
Its an LD or Reform target, LDs will want to get a good senedd result here to try and grab another seat Cardiff North is the Tories best (relative!) Cardiff West is Plaid target Cardiff South/Penarth stromg Lab but Greens do well too
Reform gain Trowbridge in Cardiff, LDs beat Labour for second
Lab 615 LD 681 Plaid 223 Propel 63 Con 90 Green 67 Reform 1142
Reform GAIN from Labour
It's going to be a blood bath for labour in Senedd 2026 if this continues
If they cant even hold second in Cardiff.......
Could Reform actually win most seats
Its all very surreal ?
They probably will, their geographic spread will be better than Plaids. Tories need to turn their vote out in pembroke, clwyd, monmouth, aberconwy, gower, flintshire and the Vale and hunt Labour down for third
They got 7.7% in West Ham last year against 8.7% across London so slightly below average. 16% is bang on what you'd expect with them polling mid to high teens in London now
These results tonight doing nothing to persuade us that Labour's 16% showing in the national opinion poll was wrong.
Thdyve lost over half their vote everywhere exceot Leamington where they clung on losing nearly half. They are in serious trouble Tories also dreadful except for Kenilworth where their vote held up and they very slightly closed the gap - their problem is they are disappearing in many places totally, they need to hope they retain LD style pools of support
CNN report that Bob Iger asked Kimmel to just go on and apologize, but instead he wrote what was described as a "hot" monologue doubling down attacking MAGA and then the bosses plugged the plug on his show.
Kenilworth is the sort of town you'd have been able to weigh the Tory vote in in the past. They've still got strength in the surrounding rural area but still
Kenilworth is the sort of town you'd have been able to weigh the Tory vote in in the past. They've still got strength in the surrounding rural area but still
In the GE, the seat that is in the Tory MP went from down normally getting ~60% down to 36% of the vote.
CNN report that Bob Iger asked Kimmel to just go on and apologize, but instead he wrote what was described as a "hot" monologue doubling down attacking MAGA and then the bosses plugged the plug on his show.
Reports that the advertisers as well as the affiliates were upset with Kimmel. When he said he wasn’t apologising and would double down, Bob Iger pulled the show.
I was just at a parents' mixer for my daughter's schools, and you realise how incredibly hard it is for these companies.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
I was just at a parents' mixer for my daughter's schools, and you realise how incredibly hard it is for these companies.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
He did made a false statement in the first part. Then he went for Trump (which is fair game). I think an apology he got the first bit wrong would have be fine and everybody moves on, but it sounds like he told Iger to do one and he was going to double down on it all. Which then puts Iger / Disney in a difficult position.
In the recent past they have stuck to their guns when they have binned people of, and in case of Gina Carano eventually had to pay out a lot of money.
We need to see more polling and post Trump's visit but if Labour slip to 4th below Lib Dems I simply do not see how they recover under Starmer
And we have Reeves to come in November
I see she is already blaming the Tories but that is not going to wash anymore
Liam Byrne's humourous note kept successive Tory Governments in the fiscal probity fast lane from 2010 to Truss's 2022 budget. So the Tories potentially have another eleven years on bricks on the hard shoulder.
Labour have fallen so far so fast it is on them now to show how they rectify their job destroying budget in 2024 and increasingly the last lot is losing its pottency
Except the Tories are even more unpopular. So we are in "a plague on both your houses" territory as far as the electorate is concerned.
I was just at a parents' mixer for my daughter's schools, and you realise how incredibly hard it is for these companies.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
He did made a false statement in the first part. Then he went for Trump (which is fair game). I think an apology he got the first bit wrong would have be fine and everybody moves on, but it sounds like he told Iger to do one and he was going to double down on it all. Which then puts Iger / Disney in a difficult position.
In the recent past they have stuck to their guns when they have binned people of, and in case of Gina Carano eventually had to pay out a lot of money.
That sounds reasonable: the problem is that everyone has got their knickers in a twist. Even if Kimmel apologies for the false statement, if he's reinstated, then I can't see Sinclair taking Disney channels again (albeit the big winner then is probably YouTube TV).
And some of those liberals are probably not going to reinstate Disney irrespective.
I was just at a parents' mixer for my daughter's schools, and you realise how incredibly hard it is for these companies.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
He did made a false statement in the first part. Then he went for Trump (which is fair game). I think an apology he got the first bit wrong would have be fine and everybody moves on, but it sounds like he told Iger to do one and he was going to double down on it all. Which then puts Iger / Disney in a difficult position.
In the recent past they have stuck to their guns when they have binned people of, and in case of Gina Carano eventually had to pay out a lot of money.
That sounds reasonable: the problem is that everyone has got their knickers in a twist. Even if Kimmel apologies for the false statement, if he's reinstated, then I can't see Sinclair taking Disney channels again (albeit the big winner then is probably YouTube TV).
And some of those liberals are probably not going to reinstate Disney irrespective.
Well yes this is the problem that it has snowballed quickly. And the US over the past years it doesn't take much for things to become very febrile. Nobody seems to be cooling the rhetoric post Kirk's assassination.
One of the problems with the Late Night hosts like Kimmel is they aren't really seen as comedians anymore. The monologues are highly political every night and always one sided. So its hard to say just jokes and that "we" have a go at everybody.
So its starting from a place where for lots of people, he is their team or the opponents teams. And of course been very quick to always dunk on everybody else who has got shit canned from the other team.
And of course Trump always comes along and pours fuel on the fire...
Trump spoke about the issue to reporters on Thursday aboard Air Force One while returning from a state visit to the UK.
"I have read someplace that the networks were 97% against me, again, 97% negative, and yet I won and easily, all seven swing states [in last year's election]," the president said.
"They give me only bad publicity, press. I mean, they're getting a licence. I would think maybe their licence should be taken away."
And of course Trump always comes along and pours fuel on the fire...
Trump spoke about the issue to reporters on Thursday aboard Air Force One while returning from a state visit to the UK.
"I have read someplace that the networks were 97% against me, again, 97% negative, and yet I won and easily, all seven swing states [in last year's election]," the president said.
"They give me only bad publicity, press. I mean, they're getting a licence. I would think maybe their licence should be taken away."
There's a really excellent Nate Silver piece on where media stands, and the extent of its liberal bias, especially in a world where Fox News is by far the most popular channel, and very definitely doesn't have a liberal bias.
Basically: MSNBC and CNN have clear liberal biases, but their combined viewership is less than Fox, and that is much more partisan than both.
One of the problems with the Late Night hosts like Kimmel is they aren't really seen as comedians anymore. The monologues are highly political every night and always one sided. So its hard to say just jokes and that "we" have a go at everybody.
So its starting from a place where for lots of people, he is their team or the opponents teams. And of course been very quick to always dunk on everybody else who has got shit canned from the other team.
I would point out that not all the late night hosts are reliably left wing. Bill Maher is certainly not. And Jon Stewart has done a reasonable job of not being too partisan.
I would also point out that while the left has their late night comedians, the right has Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham.
It seems like left wing audiences like to mock, while right wing ones like to be outraged.
I was just at a parents' mixer for my daughter's schools, and you realise how incredibly hard it is for these companies.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
He did made a false statement in the first part. Then he went for Trump (which is fair game). I think an apology he got the first bit wrong would have be fine and everybody moves on, but it sounds like he told Iger to do one and he was going to double down on it all. Which then puts Iger / Disney in a difficult position.
In the recent past they have stuck to their guns when they have binned people of, and in case of Gina Carano eventually had to pay out a lot of money.
What was the "false statement"? It all seemed perfectly reasonable to me. If Kimmel did make a "false statement" and deserves to be cancelled, can we cancel Trump every time he makes a "false statement"?
Comments
It’s the judicial philosophy - which is part of the mentality of government.
In France, the State has a strong, deep belief, in The Good Of The State. So you often see, in judicial rulings, that the good of the polity has a weight that can out weigh The Good of The Individual.
But overall it is still very small numbers. And the low hanging fruit of Albanians I think will dry up as far fewer Albanians are going via boats and attempting to claim Asylum under dubious claims of modern slavery.
*Not The People's Front Of Judea.
https://x.com/damcou/status/1968726407485251693?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
In the year ending March 2025 there were 26,388 voluntary returns, up by 19% compared to the year ending March 2024. As shown in Figure 1, voluntary return numbers have continued to rise following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and now exceed pre-pandemic levels, although are still below the levels in the first half of the previous decade.
Together, voluntary returns of Indians (7,339), Brazilians (4,629) and Albanians (2,395) accounted for just over half (54%) of all voluntary returns in the year ending March 2025. Indian and Brazilian voluntary returns have increased by 48% and 64% respectively compared to the year ending March 2024, however voluntary returns of Albanians have decreased by 37% over the same period.
Labour, building on what Sunak was doing, have been reducing net immigration, speeding up asylum processing, and getting more failed asylum seekers out of the country. The rhetoric has not, however, caught up with this.
Our statistics categorise voluntary returns in 3 different ways: those made with assistance from the Home Office, including via the Voluntary Returns Service (‘assisted returns’); returns made where the Home Office was notified of the departure, in the form of self-funded (‘controlled’) returns; and those discovered through matching our database against passenger departures data (‘other verified returns’).
So it can mean all sorts of things i.e. somebody who was an overstayer has gone by their own choice for whatever reason gets ticked on the passenger departure data and included in these numbers. Its impossible to tell how much is government "nudge" and how much is it that people went home because they decided the UK wasn't for them, family issues at home, etc.
Polanski-Sultana would be a very formidable comms presentation.
She's very social media.
Owen Jones and chums would lap this up. Gen Z will be wetting themselves over their oatmilk lattes and tiktok vids.
Now maybe she is impossible to work with and it would be a disaster I have no idea. And FWIW I think Ramsey will be proved right in medium term about green electoral strategy and actually getting MPs rather than 'winning the argument' etc.
But on the face of it...
Voluntary returns under the government definitions are not the government expelling people.
The number of people expelled is very small and dominated by two groups, who aren't arriving via boats anymore (or at least handing themselves in to claim Asylum).
My original point was do France get to choose who they take. Do the UK get the same courtesy. And will France only take easy cases like Indians they immediately send home i.e. they aren't really taking on the "problem". It seems like the UK should be sending "easy" cases directly home and both France and UK takes their share of more difficult cases with those with connection to UK come to the UK.
It's interesting even the Telegraph are pointing out Reform's poisonous reality/science denying bullshit will not only kill people but ruin the economy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/17/reforms-covid-crankery-fear-britain-pharma-powerhouses/
His company decided to move to Brisbane and he had to sack all the employees and then himself !!!!!
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
And an absolute disaster for this country and its way of life if that is maintained.
These people are Trump 2.0 UK branch and they will attempt to DOGE, by-pass democracy, get rid of civil service, wreck the rule of law and independent judges, end an independent Bank of England, neuter the press, finish the BBC, curtail local democracy, offer a red carpet to Putin and so on and on and on.
They have no ideas other than to copy Trump and that is what they will be elected to do and unless the alternatives can get their act together.
"Ignore those who say France is finished. It is as lovely as ever
Drug gangs and mounting debt have cast the country in a poor light, but its wine festivals, unspoilt countryside and first-rate food remain
Anthony Peregrine
Destination expert"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/why-france-is-as-lovely-as-ever/?recomm_id=014ace8a-af70-4f96-9ccb-df90dd4e90c6
Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn
·
2h
4.5 million children are living in poverty. Our climate is burning. Palestinians are being erased in a genocide.
Up and down the country, people are demanding real change.
None of us will ever give up in our common struggle for a more equal, sustainable and peaceful world.
https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1968764055813775652
Translation: "None of us will ever give up in our common struggle" == to micro control any vehicle of the left and nothing else matters
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/us-news/story/12-foot-golden-statue-of-trump-holding-bitcoin-unveiled-outside-us-capitol-glbs-2789135-2025-09-18
Hold my pint says Nigel!
Maybe I can counteract your assertion by suggesting without Brexit, COVID would never have happened.
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-returning-classic-episodes-newsupdate/
FFS.
I thought you got all misty eyed about the honest toil of writing, in freedom, some scratchings for the Knapper, or liked to wander around London and enjoy the young as they cavort and mingle in simple pleasures free from the watchful eye of some guy with a mask and a gun.
Reform will bring this to England. They are not your friend.
SNP 30
REF 27
LAB 13
LD 11
CON 10
GREEN 6
Other 3
Reform are still 5/2 to win 2nd most seats in Holyrood 2026, as ever DYOR
Expect some heat on whoever does the Holyrood and Senedd TV debates for Reform
https://news.sky.com/story/the-big-story-from-bank-of-england-is-an-easing-in-tightening-to-avert-massive-losses-13433278
As we found out last night, Nick Faldo and Trump are best buddies. Its a strange world.
'Classic' and 'from 2010' are making me twitch.
Poor bastard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wg8nq0p3ro
And I still think if we'd brought "It's a Knock Out!" back in about 2005 with Nigel as the slightly p*sssed but jovial host - laughing at the Belgians - we're be in a much better place.
The Herald@heraldscotland
Former Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross accuses an SNP minister of assault.
Full story from Political Editor @andrewlearmonth👇
https://x.com/heraldscotland/status/1968650132611555558
The Herald - ' Updated - Former Tory chief Douglas Ross accuses SNP minister of assault'
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25477284.douglas-ross-accuses-snp-minister-assault/
STV News@STVNews
Jamie Hepburn denies 'assault' claims made by Douglas Ross.
https://i.stv.tv/3Vkh71I
https://x.com/STVNews/status/1968691498620178892
Lab 615
LD 681
Plaid 223
Propel 63
Con 90
Green 67
Reform 1142
Reform GAIN from Labour
It was then, as the first tears rolled down my face yet again over the astonishing victory of our Nigel against all the odds that I realised I was an hour late for a flight to Obscuria Land and HR terminal 5 might not have kept a further gin on ice for me. Hurriedly I returned to my flat where it was difficult to find the required luggage and passport due to everything being painted black or midnight blue.
And yet, despite these travails, I think Nigel's first months in office have been truly outstanding.
It has been such a triumph that sometimes I can even forget I voted for Labour in 2024.
Its all very surreal ?
Tories need to turn their vote out in pembroke, clwyd, monmouth, aberconwy, gower, flintshire and the Vale and hunt Labour down for third
Cardiff North is the Tories best (relative!)
Cardiff West is Plaid target
Cardiff South/Penarth stromg Lab but Greens do well too
https://x.com/AndySmithNewham/status/1968813191841878072?t=h8M7965-8oKojxp6vHafBw&s=19
Labour crushed, not far ahead of Reform
Newham Inds 44.71%
Lab 21.35%
RefUK 16.06%
Grn 7.44%
Con 6.02%
LD 4.41%
Unfortunately:
Leamington Clarendon District Ward
Megan Clarke (Ind) - 72
Nigel Clarke (Reform) - 309
Raina Deo (Lib Dem) - 561
Chris Knight (Lab) - 574
Dominic Smith (Con) - 140
Abi Underwood (Green) - 240
Lab 30.27%
LD 29.59%
Ref 16.30%
Grn 12.66%
Con 7.38%
Ind 3.80%
Kenilworth Park Hill- Warwick District Council
Green HOLD
GRN🟢-1006- 40.3%
CON🔵- 588- 23.6%
RFM➡️- 447- 18.1%
LD🔶- 344- 13.9%
LAB🔴- 81- 3.3%
Tories also dreadful except for Kenilworth where their vote held up and they very slightly closed the gap - their problem is they are disappearing in many places totally, they need to hope they retain LD style pools of support
Grn 1007
Con 588
Ref 447
LD 344
Lab 81
Grn 40.82% [-7.16]
Con 23.83% [-4.00]
Ref 18.12% [new]
LD 13.94% [+2.56]
Lab 3.28% [-9.54]
Ashish Kumar, who led Tesla’s Optimus AI team for more than two years, has left the company to join Meta as a research scientist.
Disney is facing pressure from the left, because people are cancelling their subscriptions, and pressure from the right, because advertising is being cancelled.
The current story running on the news networks is that Disney are trying to find a way for Kimmel to come back, but he's refusing to apolgise. And having watched the section in question, I must admit, why should he apoligise? It wasn't about Charlie Kirk, it was about Trump being a narcassist.
I don't really know how Disney (and other media companies) manage this. It's going to be very interesting.
In the recent past they have stuck to their guns when they have binned people of, and in case of Gina Carano eventually had to pay out a lot of money.
And some of those liberals are probably not going to reinstate Disney irrespective.
So its starting from a place where for lots of people, he is their team or the opponents teams. And of course been very quick to always dunk on everybody else who has got shit canned from the other team.
Trump spoke about the issue to reporters on Thursday aboard Air Force One while returning from a state visit to the UK.
"I have read someplace that the networks were 97% against me, again, 97% negative, and yet I won and easily, all seven swing states [in last year's election]," the president said.
"They give me only bad publicity, press. I mean, they're getting a licence. I would think maybe their licence should be taken away."
Basically: MSNBC and CNN have clear liberal biases, but their combined viewership is less than Fox, and that is much more partisan than both.
I would also point out that while the left has their late night comedians, the right has Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham.
It seems like left wing audiences like to mock, while right wing ones like to be outraged.