Labour’s little local difficulties: The Welsh edition – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s little local difficulties: The Welsh edition – politicalbetting.com
I am struggling to type this, Labour are on 14% (fourteen percent) in next year’s Senedd election, the most surprising thing about this polling is that it isn’t much of a surprise given how badly Starmer and his government are doing.
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Edit: Fourth like the Tories
[Yes, I accept I will never visit America again.]
As for Wales, ask the question - why do Labour deserve to win? It shouldn't be a surprise to see them this low.
They have a tendency of pulling this kind of bullshit.
They've even used voodoo polls.
I wouldn't be surprised to see labour fall further
Alarm bells ring in Welsh labour as they attempt to distance themselves from Starmer
Indeed with polls like this Reform could be in with a chance of most seats
Whatever happens, Labour's years in office in Wales looks terminal
And on Trump, Sky suggesting No 10 want him to have a special gift and a personalised 'red box' is under consideration
They are barmy if that is indeed one of the gifts
and watching Cooper fawning all over him on his arrival was sickening
He does seem to have a problem with numbers reflecting reality rather than his wishes. Presumably that works fine when you are as rich as him.
Talking of which, in "it's harder than it looks" news,
Reform UK is calling for the Government to step up and increase Leicestershire special needs funding amid “spiralling” council costs.
https://www.harboroughmail.co.uk/news/politics/reform-uk-presses-government-for-more-leicestershire-cash-amid-mission-impossible-claims-5320839
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly68lerg8vo
1) it appeals to his “Firstest Ever” thing
2) red boxes are not very expensive. There’s no shortage.
3) they try and give important visitors a unique gift.
If that’s the worst decision made this week, it’s a good week.
Even under Conservative governments.
In her first broadcast interview since being sacked, she told the BBC's Nick Robinson attempts to cut disability benefits and winter fuel payments had left voters questioning "whose side we are on".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly6gevkn7zo
Well I have no doubt which side Labour are on.
Labour are on the side of non-workers and against workers.
And all on Friday 8th May 2026
Several of our members have achieved remarkable and repeatable accuracy, in polling the life challenged. The work done by our Northern Irish colleagues is especially valuable.
The polls you refer to do not appear to have many correspondents of either state.
Several of our members have achieved remarkable and repeatable accuracy, in polling the life challenged. The work done by our Northern Irish colleagues is especially valuable.
The polls you refer to do not appear to have many correspondents of either state.
They are now the official party of Middle Managers Of The Process State.
A question though - various people have said that the extradition treaty with the US is unbalanced. Fun fact - they have sent us everyone we’ve asked for under that treaty. We have refused to send multiple people.
A question though - various people have said that the extradition treaty with the US is unbalanced. Fun fact - they have sent us everyone we’ve asked for under that treaty. We have refused to send multiple people.
(I'm not disputing your sentiment but some of the chat around disabled claimants has been a bit unedifying, particularly as the criteria and adjustments for disability benefits are quite different to standard UC etc).
Credit to Plaid. In the rest of the country there isn't the same option for those who have fallen out with the bigger parties.
I don't object to the treaty because it is unbalanced myself. I object to it for three reasons, firstly because it was based on a very Blairite lie - that it was necessary for the fight against terrorism, and would only cover terrorist offences. But of course, in a classic lawyers' power grab, it turned out to cover everything. Secondly because the American criminal justice system is messed up, with ridiculous maximum penalties for trivial offences resulting in huge pressure to plea bargain, even if you're entirely innocent. And thirdly because it streamlined the process hugely, doing away with essential safeguards before people are handed over to that messed up and heavily politicised system.
It should be scrapped, and more normal arrangements for the extradition of serious criminals put in its place.
Thanks for the clarification, anyway.
1) you vote for a party who can win both WRT your own seat and WRT the election as a whole
2) you vote for a party which has not got a recent very bad record in government in Wales or UK
3) you vote rather than abstain because you have to have a government
4) you can safely ignore the issue of Welsh independence because it isn't going to happen.
Then it follows that most voters will vote PC or Reform because no other options are available. The current polling is rational. Two parties are doing OK, and have a majority of votes between them.
The same formula, slightly adapted, would also give a rational, though weaker, account of GB Westminster polling, where only one party is doing OK and the rest are trailing.
It's a poor poll for labour - it's not that much better for the LDs or the Conservatives.
The Conservatives got 25% of the Welsh vote and 16 Senedd seats at the last election. This projection shows the vote more than halving and the number of seats (despite an increased number in the Senedd) down by 5 so instead of holding a quarter of the seats as they do currently, they would hold one sixteenth.
The Conservatives and Labour won 61% of the vote between them at the 2021 Senedd - this poll shows them at 25% yet somehow it's all about Labour.
To be fair, two party politics is still alive and well in Wales and there are still three or four minor parties.
A straight swingometer approach to those Welsh westmister figures gives a similar result but not quite a wipeout - Labour retain Blaenau Gwent,, Cardiff North and Cardiff South/Penarth and the Tories pick up Monmouthshire from Labour, none of which seems unreasonable.
Reform love linking to shock horror projections like excitable 2 year olds. Its definitely their first rodeo.
A disabled worker will have been negatively affected by the increase in employers NI in ways that a disabled non-worker hasn't.
Sorry, but that is complete bullshit. You wishing it doesn't make it a thing.
Like wishing the LibDems will be seen as a great option for the voters. It's just that the voters don't see it...
Ref 31 (-1)
Lab 22 (+1)
Con 18 (=)
LD 14 (+1)
Grn 8 (=)
Oth 4 (+1)
SNP 2 (=)
Labour are on the side of non-workers and against workers.
On the basis that every change is created by action-reaction my guess is a move to the left
Constituency Region Projected Winner LabShare ReformShare Diff
Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney Wales Lab 29% 24% 5%
Cardiff East Wales Lab 27% 22% 5%
Cardiff North Wales Lab 30% 23% 8%
Cardiff South & Penarth Wales Lab 33% 22% 11%
Seriously, for what little it's worth, I think it's very important for the Conservatives, if they are to survive this, to maintain their identity and integrity vis-a vis Reform.
One question Kemi Badenoch (or whoever) will be asked (just as Davey will be asked from the other side) is whether and the extent to which the Conservatives would or should support a minority Reform Government after the next election? At local level, we have seen Conservative Councillors tacitly supporting the formation of minority Reform administrations by abstatining on the election of new council leaders rather than voting against a Reform nominee.
In the Commons, it doesn't work that way. The Conservatives would have to provide Confidence & Supply to enable a Reform administration to exist even if they do this as an act of paralysis by which I mean voting down aspects of Reform legislation which they cannot support which could be counter productive if Reform force an early election and win a clear majority (this was the argument during the Coalition negotiations in 2010).
IF the Conservatives provide that C&S to a minority Reform Government, they will (whether they like it or not) be seen as complicit in everything Reform says and does and their fortunes may well go the way of the LDs in 2015.
The best result for the Conservatives at the next election (assuming they will be nowhere near a majority) will be a Labour minority propped up by the LDs. IF Reform fail in 2028-29, I don't know what will happen to them - they could well implode and the Conservatives could be there to pick up the pieces and form a strong opposition leading to a win in 2034.
It's obvious that centrism/Blairism no longer works for Labour, but another panicked, minute stumble to the left just fills me with an immense weariness.
Without Farage, and he cannot go on forever, what becomes of Reform ?
JLR: (Long quote as paywall)
I'm not sure how this plays in to their production pause to go electric, which if it is in place and continuing may mitigate.
Jaguar Land Rover’s output could take several months to normalise, fear suppliers
JLR on Tuesday said it would extend its production halt until at least next Wednesday as it continued its investigation. In a statement, the company also cautioned that “the controlled restart of our global operations . . . will take time”.
If JLR cannot produce vehicles until November, David Bailey, professor at University of Birmingham, estimated that the group would suffer a revenue hit of more than £3.5bn while it would lose about £250mn in profits, or about £72mn in revenue and £5mn in profits on a daily basis.
With annual revenues of £29bn in 2024, JLR will be able to absorb the financial costs but Bailey warned the consequences would be bigger for the smaller sized companies in its supply chain. JLR declined to comment.
The cyber attack comes at a crucial period for the UK carmaker when it is going through a controversial rebranding of its Jaguar brand and an expensive shift to all-electric vehicles by the end of the decade. Even before the latest incident, people briefed on the matter have said the company was facing delays with launching its new electric models.
“They are clearly in chaos,” said one industry executive who works closely with JLR, while another warned that “no one actually knows” when production would resume.
https://www.ft.com/content/c67be2f2-4dcf-4656-888c-8711789cd9ae#selection-2255.0-2275.165
PC will be hampered by the reluctance of monoglot English speakers to support a party so closely associated with the promotion of the Welsh language and those who can speak it, and by the likelihood that a PC plurality in seats won't remove Labour from being part of any ruling coalition, or being involved in supporting a minority PC administration.
My expectation is that there will be a further slight shift to Reform, who will win most seats in May 2026 and form a minority administration with Tory support for key votes.
Projections give a flavour - currently a Reform win, massive Labour losses, Tories into double figures and possibly behind Lib Dems.
Seat projections for the Senedd are particularly difficult, the new system means local get ouf the vote efforts will make a difference. If 'my party' is on 10% in a pair of seats then getting 500 extra to turn out might get that 6th seat in the paired constituency. The Tory 11% could realistically net them anything from 4 to 12 seats, Labours 14%, 8 to 16 LDs on 6% could get zero to 3, ditto Greens. All about strength in any paired seat.
Make sure it’s demonstrated properly though, would be rather embarrassing if it opened up on him!
(For those who don’t know, they are hinged at the top to make doubly sure the minister has locked it before picking it up!)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/supreme-court-trans-single-sex-spaces-b2826924.html
In a multi party system under FPTP UNS means next to nothing - I've seen polls showing Reform will win East Ham - they won't. The central question is whether Labour in power (and they are the only ones who can do this) can do anything to mitigate the genuine and (often but not always) justified anger out there across a range of issues.
Starmer will win if and only if he can convince enough people the country is back on the right track and the future will be better and brighter than the present. It's the overwhelming sense things aren''t going to get better (sorry) which is powering Reform (not that they have a single coherent answer as their councillors blundering around in the counties so aptly demonstrate).
He won't win by simply saying things will be worse under Farage - they will but too many people aren't convinced. Farage and his acolytes will convince a number between now and the next election but between the anger and the fragmented opposition (who are often too busy fighting the old battles with each other), Reform could well sweep in.
Conference bounces don’t really tend to be a thing anymore IIRC, so I suspect the next major political check-in for most people will be the budget now.
Cleverly replaces Badenoch as
Tory leader next year. Then
Labour win most seats at the
next general election but
they lose their majority and
have to be propped up by the
LDs and ideally the SNP, Plaid, Greens and Your Party too.
Cleverly and Farage then resign as party leaders after the Conservative and Reform defeats. Leaving Jenrick to take over as Conservative leader to reunite the right with opposition effectively to himself
Our members are not challenged in any way.
They merely have a different lived experience to others
It comes after sources told The Times that the final guidance will tell schools, hospitals, leisure centres and cinemas to ban trans women from using single-sex spaces such as lavatories and changing rooms.
How does "Guidance" ban anything? It is Guidance, not Regulations. *
For a comparison, all of the best practice for Inclusive Mobility (eg drop kerbs, tactile paving, barriers on footpaths), and path and mobility track specification (eg width, gradient, surface, even I think the height of a drop kerb to be <6mm and bus stop bypasses) is in "Guidance" - that is "Inclusive Mobility" and LTN 1/20.
What that means in practice is that Local Highways Authorities can ignore it at will, as many do unless there is a vociferous local lobby. That is why Outer London is full of crap floating bus stops (at least they have crap ones) - because the Boroughs did not HAVE to do it properly, so they shaved the design process and spec to save money.
Where's the bite?
* I suspect this may be because one set of Courts take Guidance seriously, whilst Local Authorities rely on being practically impossible meaningfully to enforce against.
Did I say the quiet bit out loud? Oooops
Should note that I'm not at all active in the party - I know some people who are and they're fairly split on Cooper. There are plenty of unbelievers, but probably around half are fans. For me, she's Swinson mk2 - the heir apparent for reasons that are not immediately obvious to me. Swinson, of course, did get the gig.
Should also note that I don't know who I would choose at present.
ETA: If it was soon she'd be in a good position. Longer there's more time for others to emerge, I think. but even if soon if someone good decides to go for it then I think Cooper can be outshone. The Cameron to her Davis.
Zero seats. Glorious fun!
ETA I do think it’s worth looking at a Davey exit fairly soon. A “voluntary” stepping down after a bit of behind the scenes pressure.
(a) understand without paying lawyers and
(b) point to and blame when the activists from one or both sides come along, as well as the workplace unions if there is any workplace discontent about any aspect of the arrangement (which need not be specific to trans people as such, at all: eg a lot of women do not like having to use unisex toilets because of male pish splatters etc).
It is fairly strong protection in any ensuing arguments.
But also they want something reasonably practical and economic (much the same thing).