politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings wher
62% of 1st time voters tell Opinium that UK's membership of EU is good thing. 14% say "bad"
http://t.co/I2bAgori4h pic.twitter.com/k2xYUkVV5n
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First?0
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Maybe we should ban over 25s from voting at this election?0
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Ah, right, waiting for the proper poll later then. Remember last Opinium gave the Conservatives 28% so looking for any sign of trends. I'm just getting that in there before Mike's inevitable anti-blue slant to the thread
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Oh dear thin skinned blue rinser.audreyanne said:Ah, right, waiting for the proper poll later then. Remember last Opinium gave the Conservatives 28% so looking for any sign of trends. I'm just getting that in there before Mike's inevitable anti-blue slant to the thread
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FPT
Pulpstar said:
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I should have listened to you rather than that Bedford shyster on the turnout !The turnout markets were like free money for months. I was astonished the bands remained so low through to polling day.
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The level of engagement coupled with the critical nature of the vote for the electorate for their everyday life going forward for decades to come was a sure fire pincer movement for a high turnout.0 -
Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.0 -
FPTAlanbrooke said:
As it happens I think Indyref is one of the things Cameron has handled well. His intervention much beyond what he did ,would have had a negative effect. When GO intervened on currency the PB Labour chorus that he would lose Scotland was deafening. Cameron at least had the sense to avoid a head to head with AS and keep the issue a Scottish one. The only thing I would fault him for was letting Brown spook him in to the vow.
I don't think it was Brown that spooked them into the Vow. Look at this chart of the polls: Yes was climbing and the lead was closing. The crossover poll was not that extraordinary. Hence the Vow.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sj/chart.php?b=0&s_Date=&s_Date1=&o_lcl=data_2_Date_5&c_Smpl=Aqua&h_Smpl=&c_Yes=Blue&h_Yes=1&c_No=Red&h_No=1&c_Undc=Tomato&h_Undc=&c_Lead=Black&h_Lead=1
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FPT
MikeK said:
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» show previous quotes
I would love to see your face if UKIP really win over100 seats JackW. I don't think you would recover from something more than apoplexy. We would all mourn, but smirk at the same time.
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I should hope so too.
What is life and indeed death if we can't smile at our both our good fortune and adversity.0 -
But all the polls were wrong. Labour panicked.MarkHopkins said:FPT
Alanbrooke said:As it happens I think Indyref is one of the things Cameron has handled well. His intervention much beyond what he did ,would have had a negative effect. When GO intervened on currency the PB Labour chorus that he would lose Scotland was deafening. Cameron at least had the sense to avoid a head to head with AS and keep the issue a Scottish one. The only thing I would fault him for was letting Brown spook him in to the vow.
I don't think it was Brown that spooked them into the Vow. Look at this chart of the polls: Yes was climbing and the lead was closing. The crossover poll was not that extraordinary. Hence the Vow.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sj/chart.php?b=0&s_Date=&s_Date1=&o_lcl=data_2_Date_5&c_Smpl=Aqua&h_Smpl=&c_Yes=Blue&h_Yes=1&c_No=Red&h_No=1&c_Undc=Tomato&h_Undc=&c_Lead=Black&h_Lead=10 -
More on the polling, what we're (I'm) looking for over the next week are any signs of the apparent current trend continuing:
Conservative share:
Past week: 32.6%
Preceding week: 31.4%
The past 7 days did not include Opinium who have hitherto tended to poll the lowest Conservative shares so this will be interesting. I'd like to see another week's worth of polls to see if the above trend continues.0 -
I thought you believed polls were irrelevant until at least February ?audreyanne said:More on the polling, what we're (I'm) looking for over the next week are any signs of the apparent current trend continuing:
Conservative share:
Past week: 32.6%
Preceding week: 31.4%
The past 7 days did not include Opinium who have hitherto tended to poll the lowest Conservative shares so this will be interesting. I'd like to see another week's worth of polls to see if the above trend continues.0 -
FPT
Tories ahead by only 0.06% in ELBOW so far this week (ie. excluding YG and Opinium).TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're only getting two polls tonight.GIN1138 said:Hoping for a bumper crop of polls tonight for the final Saturday night of January?
YouGov and Opinium for T'Observer.0 -
No disrepect to first time voters - but if there is an age group you want to be less popular with its them. They don't vote in as bigger numbers as their older Brits!
Weren't we all young and naive once too - its no big surprise they back Labour and the Greens. When they are 40, have a big mortgage, paying lots of taxes and paying off the national debt - will they still do the same?
Still I suppose if you are worried about low wages, the cost of housing, supposed underfunding of the NHS and more having an open door to the rest of the EU is a good way to make them worse!0 -
Young folk always tend to be enthusiastically lefty, sometimes going to extremes as I did at the age of 14, when I joined the YCL. But as Mike infers, most will be too young to vote, or not be on the register, or it might be a good day for a picnic. 0
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I have more than two mortgages, run a company which employs 68 people at the last count, pay tax at the highest rate. I vote Labour.marty said:No disrepect to first time voters - but if there is an age group you want to be less popular with its them. They don't vote in as bigger numbers as their older Brits!
Weren't we all young and naive once too - its no big surprise they back Labour and the Greens. When they are 40, have a big mortgage, paying lots of taxes and paying off the national debt - will they still do the same?
Still I suppose if you are worried about low wages, the cost of housing, supposed underfunding of the NHS and more having an open door to the rest of the EU is a good way to make them worse!
Don't think everyone is naive and dull and vote Tory just because they have two pennies to rub against together.0 -
This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.0 -
For quite a bit of this month I have been visiting clients in Europe (most recently Barcelona, Berlin and Prague) about current and upcoming major non-European infrastructure projects. Some of the meetings included senior politicians
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.0 -
Tottenham 2-0 up in 15 mins.
Anyone take my 7-1 tip for top 4 finish (Labrokes) this morning?!0 -
Very true, I have made the journey myselfRichard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.0 -
Financier said:
For quite a bit of this month I have been visiting clients in Europe (most recently Barcelona, Berlin and Prague) about current and upcoming major non-European infrastructure projects. Some of the meetings included senior politicians
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.
They are very worried about Britain leaving the EU and would prefer Cameron just comes out and says what he says privately that he is a europhile and wants Britain to be in the European Union.
But Cameron isn't a straight forward politician. He just wants the job for his personal ego not becaues he cares about this country. Hes one of those guys we all encounter through networking on linkedln that want the status job title but doesn't have a passion.
Being Prime Minister is just a job. He doesn't want to change Britain and make it better and thats why people are disappointed in him
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Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
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I take it all your meetings were with *ankers and politicians ! No surprise there then.Financier said:For quite a bit of this month I have been visiting clients in Europe (most recently Barcelona, Berlin and Prague) about current and upcoming major non-European infrastructure projects. Some of the meetings included senior politicians
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.0 -
The voting age should be reduced to 14.0
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First time voters are becoming an ever-diminishing proportion of the electorate as the population gets older. They also have the lowest turnout rate. It's interesting to see how they might vote, but it doesn't count for much in the scheme of things.0
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isam said:
Very true, I have made the journey myselfRichard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
Yes easy to see you took the wrong bus.0 -
I would guess that in places like Devon the LDs and UKIP both compete for working-class votes whereas better off people stick with the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest0 -
Re: Main article. "Young voters shun Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg "
Its ok, Nick Clegg's family still love him. (probably).0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Welcome to the site, Mr. Pro, Mr. Marty.0 -
Jesus that was a poor attempt at humour... 1 minute to delete if you hurrySquareRoot said:isam said:
Very true, I have made the journey myselfRichard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
Yes easy to see you took the wrong bus.0 -
What about foetus's voting rights?surbiton said:The voting age should be reduced to 14.
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Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.PokerSNGpro said:Financier said:For quite a bit of this month I have been visiting clients in Europe (most recently Barcelona, Berlin and Prague) about current and upcoming major non-European infrastructure projects. Some of the meetings included senior politicians
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.
They are very worried about Britain leaving the EU and would prefer Cameron just comes out and says what he says privately that he is a europhile and wants Britain to be in the European Union.
But Cameron isn't a straight forward politician. He just wants the job for his personal ego not becaues he cares about this country. Hes one of those guys we all encounter through networking on linkedln that want the status job title but doesn't have a passion.
Being Prime Minister is just a job. He doesn't want to change Britain and make it better and thats why people are disappointed in him0 -
No mostly CEOs of multinationals - sorry, just don't find attractive the company you describe and must be familiar with.surbiton said:
I take it all your meetings were with *ankers and politicians ! No surprise there then.Financier said:For quite a bit of this month I have been visiting clients in Europe (most recently Barcelona, Berlin and Prague) about current and upcoming major non-European infrastructure projects. Some of the meetings included senior politicians
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.0 -
Around this time last week we were getting the news of UKIP suspending Amjad Bashir..
"Sounds sinister" said the Cameroons when they heard he had been up to no good, hoping to stir up a bit of UKIP hate
Then up he popped with Dave... and the tune was changed!
What happened to Amjad? Is he locked in a cupboard a la Craig in Bo Selecta?0 -
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 4h4 hours ago
Theresa May promised a new chair of the crisis-ridden child abuse inquiry would be in place 'by the end of the month'. That's today.
Another great Tory promise seemingly broken. Seemingly only because it's not midnight.0 -
tories have 78million to spend and 80% of the seats are decided. So in roughly 100 seats they have 780,000 to spend in each seat.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
surely a poxy newspaper that will end up in the bin after 1 minute of reading is a waste of money? or is the aim with 100 days to go to try to change the perceptions like the corporate giants attempt to change their reputation.
Why don't you just offer voters money to vote tory as incentives?
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Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
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Mr. Pro, given you have consecutive posts, with the former suggesting the Conservatives try and bribe the electorate and the latter informing us all manner of senior chaps dislike Cameron on a personal level, do I detect a hint of leftwing politics?0
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Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.PokerSNGpro said:
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
Just name some please0 -
Betting odds ld/con marginals
Cheltenham - 9/4 Conservatives
Devon North - 11/10 Conservatives
Kingston/Surbiton - 13/8 Conservatives
Eastbourne - 13/8 Conservatives
Think all 4 races are very good value as all the races will have high turnout making the ld vote very vulnerable.
Saying that I still think 11/5 LD hold in Inverness is a cracking price to hold of the snp
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@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)0 -
You'll have to wait for the budget for that. Then you can REALLY bitch and moan.PokerSNGpro said:
tories have 78million to spend and 80% of the seats are decided. So in roughly 100 seats they have 780,000 to spend in each seat.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
surely a poxy newspaper that will end up in the bin after 1 minute of reading is a waste of money? or is the aim with 100 days to go to try to change the perceptions like the corporate giants attempt to change their reputation.
Why don't you just offer voters money to vote tory as incentives?
In the mean time, we'll just have to make do with delivering poxy newspapers to keep our candidate's name recognition and profile raised up in 1 minute chunks....
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Do you have any polling evidence to back up that crazy assertion?TCPoliticalBetting said:Its ok, Nick Clegg's family still love him. (probably).
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Cameron's pensioner bonds, Labour's family tax credits - is there any difference, really ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pro, given you have consecutive posts, with the former suggesting the Conservatives try and bribe the electorate and the latter informing us all manner of senior chaps dislike Cameron on a personal level, do I detect a hint of leftwing politics?
The Lib Dems are in trouble precisely because they didn't bribe the students (A core lib dem vote) - a damning indictement of the electorate tbh.0 -
Ashcroft indicates different.PokerSNGpro said:Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, the pension bonds are ridiculous, I agree. However, cutting the deficit more slowly is worse.0
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Welcome PokerSNGpro.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
To clarify the throwaway remark above, the site was founded and is run by a former LibDem councillor and LibDem parliamentary candidate. Whilst Mike tries to be balanced there does tend to be a pro-LibDem and anti-Tory bias in the main thread headers, at least that's what a number of us feel. We accept that because it's still a damned good site and until recently was full of good honest debate. Many of the more active posters on here tend to be to the right of Cameron's Conservatives and we desperately could do with some more Labour posters back on board. We used to have a very vociferous Labourite called Tim but he was banned, not I think because of his red views. I rather miss him now.
(By the way, I'm a Conservative but want to see balance.)0 -
children have only ever taken out of the system, once theyve put a bit back in, theyll appreciate why others want to stop taxes increasing.0
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Andy, I would have expected UKIP to go after the Grumbly Crumblies, those who have been sorely affected by 7 years of crashed interest rates on their savings/pensions.AndyJS said:
I would guess that in places like Devon the LDs and UKIP both compete for working-class votes whereas better off people stick with the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
But maybe disaffected LibDems are the low-hanging fruits for UKIP?
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No surprise to find a generation infatuated with Justin Beiber and One Direction supporting Labour and the Greens.
Education, education, education.0 -
Financier said:
Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.PokerSNGpro said:
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
Just name some please
Well unfortunately we live in a country now where if you say something bad against Cameron, his friends in the media, then go after the company, charity or family through smear campaigns. Just ask the RSPCA after they criticized Camerons rural policies, the daily mail and telegraph have written over 20 articles attacking this organisation.
The bankers created the financial crisis, the media blamed Labour, the middle class are paying the debt that the bankers created.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
Herre is George Osborne in 2007 before the financial crisis. No mention of debt. No mention of spending. Just that he would promise to match Labours spending plans.
Financial crisis happens...the tories music changes..the media does the job for them.
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Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.
>>
"Quote" rel=PokerSNGpro"
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
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Well I have met him and have talked with him, actually in a room just the two of us, and I repudiate that completely. It's what they call in the trade, a load of cobblers.0 -
After Labour's big NHS week got blown away by rows and splits, good to hear that is all behind them...
@cathynewman: . @andyburnhammp just told me "I disagree profoundly" with Alan Milburn re NHS; "he's not in parliament; has moved on to other things"
But at least they have a winner in Ed...
@cathynewman: "We're going to turn the whole country off if that's the question we get" @andyburnhammp on @Ed_Miliband & the personality question0 -
I'm not sure tim was banned. He left after someone identified him and posted his address, I thought? Which was not a farm in Cheshire...
It was probably for the best. You could tell what he thought of Ed Miliband. Shilling for Ed would have destroyed what passed for tim's soul....0 -
PokerSNGPro … you're going to get labelled as a troll if you come on here and rant like that in your first few posts.
(Isam, all irony accepted ) 0 -
NOTAs who aren't Hippies?!MarqueeMark said:
Andy, I would have expected UKIP to go after the Grumbly Crumblies, those who have been sorely affected by 7 years of crashed interest rates on their savings/pensions.AndyJS said:
I would guess that in places like Devon the LDs and UKIP both compete for working-class votes whereas better off people stick with the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
But maybe disaffected LibDems are the low-hanging fruits for UKIP?
The LD's felt good about themselves getting lots of votes, but many were NOTA's.. just as many Green and UKIP votes are now0 -
woody662 said:
Ashcroft indicates different.PokerSNGpro said:Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.
The polling firm that Ashcroft uses is Survation in liverpool street. The people reading the survies are from 18-22 on £7 an hour. Do you really trust their ability to tick a box on an 15 minute survey?
From experience, for every 5 questions, one question will be marked down incorrectly.
Maybe this is why his polls are inaccurate and were so far off in 2010. If he used a better polling firm with professional market researchers who can conduct both quan/qual interviews to the right standards maybe they would get more accurate data.
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Oh!! Haha. I still rather miss him, although that may be with the benefit of hindsight. He and SeanT used to go at it hammer n' tong.MarqueeMark said:I'm not sure tim was banned. He left after someone identified him and posted his address, I thought? Which was not a farm in Cheshire...
It was probably for the best. You could tell what he thought of Ed Miliband. Shilling for Ed would have destroyed what passed for tim's soul....0 -
Doesn't he use Populus ?PokerSNGpro said:woody662 said:
Ashcroft indicates different.PokerSNGpro said:Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.
The polling firm that Ashcroft uses is Survation in liverpool street. The people reading the survies are from 18-22 on £7 an hour. Do you really trust their ability to tick a box on an 15 minute survey?
From experience, for every 5 questions, one question will be marked down incorrectly.
Maybe this is why his polls are inaccurate and were so far off in 2010. If he used a better polling firm with professional market researchers who can conduct both quan/qual interviews to the right standards maybe they would get more accurate data.
You'll want to go large on Labour most seats if you think Loughborough will fall btw - it's a better 6-5 or so.0 -
My political journey has run in exactly the opposite direction. I was on the right and EU-sceptic in my teens and early twenties, I was middle ground and pro-EU in my thirties and now I'm leaning Green (and still pro-EU) and more lefty at 40.Richard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
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Just name some pleasePokerSNGpro said:Financier said:
Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.PokerSNGpro said:
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
Well unfortunately we live in a country now where if you say something bad against Cameron, his friends in the media, then go after the company, charity or family through smear campaigns. Just ask the RSPCA after they criticized Camerons rural policies, the daily mail and telegraph have written over 20 articles attacking this organisation.
The RSPCA get it in the neck from the media for turning into a charity more interested in politics and making people's lives miserable, than animal welfare.0 -
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)0 -
Methodology is more like ICM's "spiral of silence".Pulpstar said:
Doesn't he use Populus ?PokerSNGpro said:woody662 said:
Ashcroft indicates different.PokerSNGpro said:Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.
The polling firm that Ashcroft uses is Survation in liverpool street. The people reading the survies are from 18-22 on £7 an hour. Do you really trust their ability to tick a box on an 15 minute survey?
From experience, for every 5 questions, one question will be marked down incorrectly.
Maybe this is why his polls are inaccurate and were so far off in 2010. If he used a better polling firm with professional market researchers who can conduct both quan/qual interviews to the right standards maybe they would get more accurate data.
You'll want to go large on Labour most seats if you think Loughborough will fall btw - it's a better 6-5 or so.0 -
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.0
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Desperate stuff from the flat lining kippers, mouthing Labour's inconsequential rants.MikeK said:Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 4h4 hours ago
Theresa May promised a new chair of the crisis-ridden child abuse inquiry would be in place 'by the end of the month'. That's today.
Another great Tory promise seemingly broken. Seemingly only because it's not midnight.
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I'll second that.AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)0 -
UKIP, go Green, not pink. And the numbers will finally break your way. Anti-fracking/shale shale-gas, anti-GMO and anti-Glyphosate/Roundup. So simple but you need to dump Helmer to get there.0
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Mr. Gage, GMO? Glyphosate/Roundup?
I believe others, including Mr. Tapestry, have made a similar suggestion. It's interesting that Farage has not.0 -
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WeirdoSteven_Whaley said:
My political journey has run in exactly the opposite direction. I was on the right and EU-sceptic in my teens and early twenties, I was middle ground and pro-EU in my thirties and now I'm leaning Green (and still pro-EU) and more lefty at 40.Richard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.0 -
Survation do the interviews. Populus may outsource the actual polling as I know an interviewer. The problem with most market research political polls is they don't have the money to pay for the top end b2b market research companies that would demand much higher fees for interviews. 15minutes interviews at a top b2b firm with professional researchers whether quan/qual would be valued at £16/17 for the interviewer from £50 for the company.Pulpstar said:
Doesn't he use Populus ?PokerSNGpro said:
The polling firm that Ashcroft uses is Survation in liverpool street. The people reading the survies are from 18-22 on £7 an hour. Do you really trust their ability to tick a box on an 15 minute survey?woody662 said:
Ashcroft indicates different.PokerSNGpro said:Young voters will only have an impact in races with Tory-Labour marginals where the lib dem vote is around 7-10k from 2010, giving Labour the necessary votes to unseat the Tory mp.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.
From experience, for every 5 questions, one question will be marked down incorrectly.
Maybe this is why his polls are inaccurate and were so far off in 2010. If he used a better polling firm with professional market researchers who can conduct both quan/qual interviews to the right standards maybe they would get more accurate data.
You'll want to go large on Labour most seats if you think Loughborough will fall btw - it's a better 6-5 or so.
To put into perspective, Abu Dhabi Investment Promotion Authority paid a market research company 900,000 for 600 interviews and the interview length was 20 minutes.
on loughborough
Well i'm thinking of betting individual seats and cherry picking around 50 seats staking 30-40 each like I do in Poker playing 30-50 euros don. If I keep backing the 2nd favourite i'm getting value. im not getting involved with most seats as I prefer to base my bets on local issues, local candidates, geography and also the number of movable voters.
I'm backing Labour to win loughborugh because there are 12k voters that will be changing the way they vote. its a small majority so £50 bet will give me a good profit.
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I guess that's meant light-heartedly but it could be read as slightly unkind.isam said:
WeirdoSteven_Whaley said:
My political journey has run in exactly the opposite direction. I was on the right and EU-sceptic in my teens and early twenties, I was middle ground and pro-EU in my thirties and now I'm leaning Green (and still pro-EU) and more lefty at 40.Richard_Tyndall said:This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
What has got into you today?0 -
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)0 -
They don't have £78m to spendPokerSNGpro said:
tories have 78million to spend and 80% of the seats are decided. So in roughly 100 seats they have 780,000 to spend in each seat.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
surely a poxy newspaper that will end up in the bin after 1 minute of reading is a waste of money? or is the aim with 100 days to go to try to change the perceptions like the corporate giants attempt to change their reputation.
Why don't you just offer voters money to vote tory as incentives?
They have raised £78m over the last 5 years. They have operating costs and other expenditure. Besides there are caps on expenditure once you enter the long campaign (which I believe was mid December)0 -
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.Theuniondivvie said:
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
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Grew up thinking I was conservative. Was not unhappy to see Labour win in 1997, as I think the tories as a party were disgraceful at the time (don't apply that to the leader, who did a reasonable job managing the rabble and was probably the last decent PM we had). As it stands now, I dislike many of the Tory policies but don't think I can bring myself to vote Labour as they have never had any economic competence.
My views these days are probably closest to the orange booker side of the Lib Dems - even if everyone else does hate them.
Actually a shame for Clegg and co that they have not been in opposition for the last 5 years as they could have made an absolute killing in 2015. I would expect that if Cameron had got a few more seats and had a majority in 2010, that current polling would see Cons, Lab and Lib all in the 25%-30% range.0 -
When he was on good form he was amusing and insightfulaudreyanne said:
Oh!! Haha. I still rather miss him, although that may be with the benefit of hindsight. He and SeanT used to go at it hammer n' tong.MarqueeMark said:I'm not sure tim was banned. He left after someone identified him and posted his address, I thought? Which was not a farm in Cheshire...
It was probably for the best. You could tell what he thought of Ed Miliband. Shilling for Ed would have destroyed what passed for tim's soul....
All too often, though, he was vile and aggressive, especially towards women.0 -
I was under the impression that Mr Gage and Mr Tapestry were one and the same person.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Gage, GMO? Glyphosate/Roundup?
I believe others, including Mr. Tapestry, have made a similar suggestion. It's interesting that Farage has not.0 -
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5154/pakistan-civility-fanaticism
More or less a history of Pakistan since independence. A long and unhappy story.0 -
Mr. Tyndall, if so, he's admirably consistent
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That was certainly my assumption.Richard_Tyndall said:
I was under the impression that Mr Gage and Mr Tapestry were one and the same person.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Gage, GMO? Glyphosate/Roundup?
I believe others, including Mr. Tapestry, have made a similar suggestion. It's interesting that Farage has not.
I can only put the fact that there is no evidence to back up my assumption down to the nefarious activities of assorted lizards0 -
You should look into UKIP's policies. Don't be scared, we don't bite: http://www.ukip.org/Greenwich_Floater said:Grew up thinking I was conservative. Was not unhappy to see Labour win in 1997, as I think the tories as a party were disgraceful at the time (don't apply that to the leader, who did a reasonable job managing the rabble and was probably the last decent PM we had). As it stands now, I dislike many of the Tory policies but don't think I can bring myself to vote Labour as they have never had any economic competence.
My views these days are probably closest to the orange booker side of the Lib Dems - even if everyone else does hate them.
Actually a shame for Clegg and co that they have not been in opposition for the last 5 years as they could have made an absolute killing in 2015. I would expect that if Cameron had got a few more seats and had a majority in 2010, that current polling would see Cons, Lab and Lib all in the 25%-30% range.
BTW welcome to PB.0 -
The Tories do not have £78 million to spend. There are limits on election spending.PokerSNGpro said:
tories have 78 million to spend and 80% of the seats are decided. So in roughly 100 seats they have 780,000 to spend in each seat.MarqueeMark said:Good turnout at Torbay today. Canvassing and delivering the fourth edition of the local Tory newspaper in four months.
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
surely a poxy newspaper that will end up in the bin after 1 minute of reading is a waste of money? or is the aim with 100 days to go to try to change the perceptions like the corporate giants attempt to change their reputation.
Why don't you just offer voters money to vote tory as incentives?
Canvassing and leafleting is fairly common and traditional. Your accusations of bribery are pretty shallow.0 -
Seats im backing the tories (presently)
Boston/Skegness - 11/8
Brecon - 13/8
Cheltenham - 9/4
Devon North - 11/10
Eastbourne - 13/8
Thanet South - 2/1
Thurrock - 6/1
Southampton Itchen - 9/4
Southport - 5/2
Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall0 -
The worst of Britain - the thug who mugged 67 year old Alan Barnes. A man born with sight and growth issues after his mother contracted German Measles during pregnancy. He was left with a broken collarbone and extremely distressed. He is now too terrified to go home.
The best of Britain - the 10,657 and counting strangers who through gofundme have raised 137k in just two days to help him rebuild his life.0 -
Hah !PokerSNGpro said:Seats im backing the tories (presently)
Boston/Skegness - 11/8
Brecon - 13/8
Cheltenham - 9/4
Devon North - 11/10
Eastbourne - 13/8
Thanet South - 2/1
Thurrock - 6/1
Southampton Itchen - 9/4
Southport - 5/2
Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall
One of us is off to the poorhouse if those stay blue
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.0 -
Interesting piece on male suicide and why nobody seems to give a damn:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/mens-health/11377311/If-as-many-women-killed-themselves-as-men-wed-never-hear-the-end-of-it.html0 -
.
You should look into UKIP's policies. Don't be scared, we don't bite: http://www.ukip.org/
BTW welcome to PB.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
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You should look into UKIP's policies. Don't be scared, we don't bite: http://www.ukip.org/Greenwich_Floater said:.
BTW welcome to PB.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
----------------------------------
I can assure you, that you are completely wrong in your assumption about support, in your last paragraph. We have many young warriors in the Peoples Army.
The unpleasantness and smell comes from those that try to smear and disparage UKIP.
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Er, not Wells?PokerSNGpro said:Seats im backing the tories (presently)
Boston/Skegness - 11/8
Brecon - 13/8
Cheltenham - 9/4
Devon North - 11/10
Eastbourne - 13/8
Thanet South - 2/1
Thurrock - 6/1
Southampton Itchen - 9/4
Southport - 5/2
Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall0 -
Really? Most of the UKIP supporters I know personally are extremely successful and very happy with the way their lives have turned out. It is the very fact they have something worth defending and fear that it will be lost that makes them want to support the party.Greenwich_Floater said:.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
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That's no way to talk about the PB Tories!Greenwich_Floater said:middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
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A combination that's not too shabby.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.Theuniondivvie said:
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
Charles, yes I'd forgotten that. He could be very misogynistic IIRC.0 -
Another subject that feminists aren't interested in.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting piece on male suicide and why nobody seems to give a damn:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/mens-health/11377311/If-as-many-women-killed-themselves-as-men-wed-never-hear-the-end-of-it.html0 -
Thanks, but no thanks.MikeK said:
You should look into UKIP's policies. Don't be scared, we don't bite: http://www.ukip.org/Greenwich_Floater said:.
BTW welcome to PB.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
----------------------------------
I can assure you, that you are completely wrong in your assumption about support, in your last paragraph. We have many young warriors in the Peoples Army.
The unpleasantness and smell comes from those that try to smear and disparage UKIP.
I don't know UKIP around my area are doing a pretty good job of disparaging themselves:
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-shambles-as-three-members-quit-over-hampshire-branch-organisers-violent-criminal-past-10011395.html
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-65439490 -
I'm also liberal socially and right wing economically, which is why I'm a Toryaudreyanne said:
A combination that's not too shabby.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.Theuniondivvie said:
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions) 0 -
Labour Edinburgh South West (Darlingt's seat) selection: Cllr Ricky Henderson0
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It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.antifrank said:It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
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DittoCharles said:
I'm also liberal socially and right wing economically, which is why I'm a Toryaudreyanne said:
A combination that's not too shabby.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.Theuniondivvie said:
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).AndyJS said:
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.Smarmeron said:@PokerSNGpro
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
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Solihull is a better bet I reckon for a Con gain short price from Lib Dem.audreyanne said:
Er, not Wells?PokerSNGpro said:Seats im backing the tories (presently)
Boston/Skegness - 11/8
Brecon - 13/8
Cheltenham - 9/4
Devon North - 11/10
Eastbourne - 13/8
Thanet South - 2/1
Thurrock - 6/1
Southampton Itchen - 9/4
Southport - 5/2
Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall0
