Seats im backing the tories (presently) Boston/Skegness - 11/8 Brecon - 13/8 Cheltenham - 9/4 Devon North - 11/10 Eastbourne - 13/8 Thanet South - 2/1 Thurrock - 6/1 Southampton Itchen - 9/4 Southport - 5/2 Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall
Hah !
One of us is off to the poorhouse if those stay blue
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
Heres my logic Thanet South 2/1 = Tories have put a top candidate here and there is enough anti-farage to see him fail. 2/1 is great value in a very competitve race. Southampton Itchen 9/4 = Terrible fit for Labour here. She should be somewhere else but not here. Tory candidate is well known born raised in southampton and ran the council. Great price with apathy and low turnout factoring in. Thurrock 6/1 = UKIP labour tories could all split he vote like in watford but here your getting a massive price with so many unknowns about how voters are going to do that the lifelong tories and coming home kippers could sneak it.
Any seat with a liberal democrat with high turnout is vulnerable. We know the lib dems have hardcore supporters but can they get 23-25k that they need in these southern seats. I seriously doubt it and thats why backing the tories to win in eastbourne, yeovil, devon, cheltenham and devon is great value.
skegness - i think the local/eruo elections will subisde and the tories will hold on.
small parties need voters to cross-over to defeat labour/conservative and i just dont think its going to happen. i think there is so much apathy now in politics that people just vote for who they want to win and not vote tactically as much as before.
"UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives."
Don't you think it's important that such men have a political voice?
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here! (but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.
A combination that's not too shabby.
I'm also liberal socially and right wing economically, which is why I'm a Tory
The worst of Britain - the thug who mugged 67 year old Alan Barnes. A man born with sight and growth issues after his mother contracted German Measles during pregnancy. He was left with a broken collarbone and extremely distressed. He is now too terrified to go home.
The best of Britain - the 10,657 and counting strangers who through gofundme have raised 137k in just two days to help him rebuild his life.
Well said Mark. A mugging is a mugging, but some things just seem so wrong as to be heartbreaking when you think of the problems this man has had to face all his life. Well done to those who have raised and given money from nothing.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
According to Peter Kellner, the young people of the Sixties and Seventies were both very enthusiastic for the EU, and pretty liberal about immigration. Neither is true of the same age cohort today. The British Social Attitudes survey shows the baby boomers becoming far more negative towards immigration after 2000.
"UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives."
Don't you think it's important that such men have a political voice?
He wasn't denying them the right to a voice.
He just said that he wouldn't be a good fit personally.
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here! (but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
I don't think it is actually. Most people on here are more liberal than average, and that probably applies to supporters of all the parties.
Right wing and liberal are deeply subjective terms (and in any case not mutually exclusive).
Indeed I would consider myself to be extremely liberal socially but right wing economically.
A combination that's not too shabby.
I'm also liberal socially and right wing economically, which is why I'm a Tory
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
Really? Most of the UKIP supporters I know personally are extremely successful and very happy with the way their lives have turned out. It is the very fact they have something worth defending and fear that it will be lost that makes them want to support the party.
UKIP supporters are typically working, and lower-middle, class. I think that a big driver in their voting intention is fear that their children will have a worse life than they had.
Seats im backing the tories (presently) Boston/Skegness - 11/8 Brecon - 13/8 Cheltenham - 9/4 Devon North - 11/10 Eastbourne - 13/8 Thanet South - 2/1 Thurrock - 6/1 Southampton Itchen - 9/4 Southport - 5/2 Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall
Hah !
One of us is off to the poorhouse if those stay blue
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
Heres my logic Thanet South 2/1 = Tories have put a top candidate here and there is enough anti-farage to see him fail. 2/1 is great value in a very competitve race. Southampton Itchen 9/4 = Terrible fit for Labour here. She should be somewhere else but not here. Tory candidate is well known born raised in southampton and ran the council. Great price with apathy and low turnout factoring in. Thurrock 6/1 = UKIP labour tories could all split he vote like in watford but here your getting a massive price with so many unknowns about how voters are going to do that the lifelong tories and coming home kippers could sneak it.
Any seat with a liberal democrat with high turnout is vulnerable. We know the lib dems have hardcore supporters but can they get 23-25k that they need in these southern seats. I seriously doubt it and thats why backing the tories to win in eastbourne, yeovil, devon, cheltenham and devon is great value.
skegness - i think the local/eruo elections will subisde and the tories will hold on.
small parties need voters to cross-over to defeat labour/conservative and i just dont think its going to happen. i think there is so much apathy now in politics that people just vote for who they want to win and not vote tactically as much as before.
Thanks for the analysis, I think the yellows will win Southport and Yeovil comfortably, and think UKIP is very strong on the east coast, particularly Boston with Farage deserved favourite in Thanet South.
I'll follow you in on Itchen though, looks realistic enough.
Another subject that feminists aren't interested in.
Intrinsicly, given that feminism is campaigning for equality between the sexes and the end of gender stereotypes, they are implicitly looking to help on this issue.
Currently, by stereotype, men "have" to be mentally strong whilst women are "allowed" to be mentally weak. With equality between the sexes this stereotype goes away and thus so does the crushing social pressure which inhibits men from seeking help for mental issues,
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 4h4 hours ago Theresa May promised a new chair of the crisis-ridden child abuse inquiry would be in place 'by the end of the month'. That's today.
Another great Tory promise seemingly broken. Seemingly only because it's not midnight.
Desperate stuff from the flat lining kippers, mouthing Labour's inconsequential rants.
Another subject that feminists aren't interested in.
Intrinsicly, given that feminism is campaigning for equality between the sexes and the end of gender stereotypes, they are implicitly looking to help on this issue.
Currently, by stereotype, men "have" to be mentally strong whilst women are "allowed" to be mentally weak. With equality between the sexes this stereotype goes away and thus so does the crushing social pressure which inhibits men from seeking help for mental issues,
We look forward to the day when the Scottish Professional Football League fields an equal number of women as men. You've got work to do, Alsister.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
Ain't that the truth.
Young voters have been idealistic, and quite self-righteous about it, since time immemorial.
However, "in my day", there were quite a few of us who were ultra-libertarian and anti-government/state well. We saw it as our duty to question the status quo, and thrived on debating with each other.
I'm not sure that's so much the case today. It's probably just as likely that anyone openly questioning some cherished axioms of the liberal-left is asked to withdraw their criticism, and apologise, or is socially ostracised.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
Seats im backing the tories (presently) Boston/Skegness - 11/8 Brecon - 13/8 Cheltenham - 9/4 Devon North - 11/10 Eastbourne - 13/8 Thanet South - 2/1 Thurrock - 6/1 Southampton Itchen - 9/4 Southport - 5/2 Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall
Hah !
One of us is off to the poorhouse if those stay blue
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
Surely the pair of you should bet each other at the mid points?
I'm on Boston & Skeg for £70 UKIP @ 10-11 Thanet South UKIP for about the same NET too. (Losing more if Labour win it) Thurrock on both UKIP and Labour.
So Greece abandons austerity and reverts to its former spending habits whilst the EU refuses to reduce the debt. Surely the only outcome of that is default. Was the idea that Greece might just print its own Euros a non-starter?
This poll pleases me no end. I would consider it a terrible thing if the fresh faced idealists with little idea of the real world didn't believe in the pipe dreams of the EU and the Greens.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
My political journey has run in exactly the opposite direction. I was on the right and EU-sceptic in my teens and early twenties, I was middle ground and pro-EU in my thirties and now I'm leaning Green (and still pro-EU) and more lefty at 40.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
I'm not sure tim was banned. He left after someone identified him and posted his address, I thought? Which was not a farm in Cheshire...
It was probably for the best. You could tell what he thought of Ed Miliband. Shilling for Ed would have destroyed what passed for tim's soul....
Actually wee Tim always went on and in and on and on about Cameron's women problem. Last poll I saw showed Ed's problem was worst. I would have been seriously concerned for his sanity and his dental work given the gnashing of teeth that outcome would have provoked.
He did manage to get the first ever PB ASBO which was quite an achievement for having a go at Plato all the time. TBH I think it was Tim that had a woman problem but still.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
Ain't that the truth.
Young voters have been idealistic, and quite self-righteous about it, since time immemorial.
However, "in my day", there were quite a few of us who were ultra-libertarian and anti-government/state well. We saw it as our duty to question the status quo, and thrived on debating with each other.
I'm not sure that's so much the case today. It's probably just as likely that anyone openly questioning some cherished axioms of the liberal-left is asked to withdraw their criticism, and apologise, or is socially ostracised.
Typically, c. 33% of 18-34 year olds are shown to support right of centre parties (in December Yougov had UKIP on 13% among young voters). So, I don't think the sorts of people you describe have disappeared. But, on university campuses, there's pressure to conform to left-wing orthodoxy, and a real intolerance of dissenting opinions.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
Surely the pair of you should bet each other at the mid points?
I'm on Boston & Skeg for £70 UKIP @ 10-11 Thanet South UKIP for about the same NET too. (Losing more if Labour win it) Thurrock on both UKIP and Labour.
I've got a bankroll of around 3k for this election for individual seats.
Like in Poker, I'll keep 1k of it for large bets on specific seats but I haven't looked into yet with Betfair. I'll try to get some promotions from them before I do my bets
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 4h4 hours ago Theresa May promised a new chair of the crisis-ridden child abuse inquiry would be in place 'by the end of the month'. That's today.
Another great Tory promise seemingly broken. Seemingly only because it's not midnight.
Desperate stuff from the flat lining kippers, mouthing Labour's inconsequential rants.
Britain is expected to be named the fastest-growing major economy in the developed world last year after outpacing the United States.
Gross domestic product – the total size of the economy – increased by 2.6 per cent in 2014, the UK's best performance since 2007. Figures published yesterday in Washington showed the US economy grew by 2.4 per cent. The other G7 nations – Canada, Japan, Germany, France and Italy – have yet to announce their figures for last year, but are also expected to lag behind the UK.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Things are different, but ethnic gang culture is decidedly unpleasant in London and some other cities. The reason we moved from Wembley in 2007 was due to the very nasty racist bullying that my (mixed race) step-children faced from a Pakistani/Somali gang that was based in Colindale.
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Your point was to smear people like me, I got it ok
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Ahhhh! But are they Upper Cretaceous or Lower Cretaceous, thats the question?
Methinks OGT (our genial troll) this one should be filed under "straw found to clutch" :-) -------------- "Young voters shun Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg in general election poll" Pity most of them don't bother to vote.
"Amongst 1st voters LAB leads by 15% according to Opinium. GRN on 19% UKIP 3% " “If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” - W Churchill
"First-timers are strongly pro-EU" Revealed: How children are 'brainwashed with European propaganda' handed out by EU staff at education fairs European Commission official says they need 'to start early enough with the young people before they form prejudices and are misinformed by other sources'
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Things are different, but ethnic gang culture is decidedly unpleasant in London and some other cities. The reason we moved from Wembley in 2007 was due to the very nasty racist bullying that my (mixed race) step-children faced from a Pakistani/Somali gang that was based in Colindale.
And presumably total apathy from the authorities about it because it was the wrong sort of racism?
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Discrimination against the earliest dinosaurs from the Triassic!
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Things are different, but ethnic gang culture is decidedly unpleasant in London and some other cities. The reason we moved from Wembley in 2007 was due to the very nasty racist bullying that my (mixed race) step-children faced from a Pakistani/Somali gang that was based in Colindale.
And presumably total apathy from the authorities about it because it was the wrong sort of racism?
There's a limit to what they can do when you live cheek by jowl with your tormentors.
Over the course of 50 years, we've moved from racial violence and abuse being typically a thing that is done by White people to Black people to a thing that is done by members of all races to each other.
Isn't polling for the Lib Dems probably quite tricky now because basically they're holed up in the various fiefdoms, tend to answer for another party unless they're asked "in your constituency" and if you ask outside those fiefdoms you'll basically find "nil" ?
It's not news that youngsters generally think that Nigel Farage is a bigoted buffoon. Their grandparents' views baffle and embarrass them.
It's a bit like Mark Twain's adage that at the age of 18, he thought his father was insufferably ignorant. By the age of 21, he realised the old man had learned quite a lot.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations.
My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
We have yet to return to "no blacks no Irish no dogs". Even kippers might balk at that.
Pathetic smear, you have no idea how old fashioned you sound
You're missing my point. Race relations have, contrary to your assertion, moved on a lot in the last 50 years. Even the dinosaurs are Cretaceous rather than Jurassic.
Things are different, but ethnic gang culture is decidedly unpleasant in London and some other cities. The reason we moved from Wembley in 2007 was due to the very nasty racist bullying that my (mixed race) step-children faced from a Pakistani/Somali gang that was based in Colindale.
And presumably total apathy from the authorities about it because it was the wrong sort of racism?
There's a limit to what they can do when you live cheek by jowl with your tormentors.
Over the course of 50 years, we've moved from racial violence and abuse being typically a thing that is done by White people to Black people to a thing that is done by members of all races to each other.
I'm not sure I agree there, but then I only lived a mile away from Thornton Heath where disabled teenager Terry May was dragged of a motorbike and murdered in 1981 by a gang of thugs, apparently for no other reason than his white skin colour, none of whom was ever convicted of murder. It always happened, but is now a much bigger problem. Oddly enough no one instigated a huge public enquiry into his death.
What hasn't changed is the general head in the sand attitude of the authorities towards the "wrong sort of racism".
Isn't polling for the Lib Dems probably quite tricky now because basically they're holed up in the various fiefdoms, tend to answer for another party unless they're asked "in your constituency" and if you ask outside those fiefdoms you'll basically find "nil" ?
Musing over AndyJS's spreadsheet, there are still a large number of seats with no LD PPC. With 90 days to go I do wonder if they intend to run in all GB seats. Certainly to be 95 days away from the longstanding date it at the very least seems to indicate a certain lack of organisation. The Tories have a few empty too.
Interestingly, in all Glasgow seats and in many around the city neither Blues or yellows have selected. Is there a tacit plan to make it hard for the SNP by running only token (if any) rival Unionist candidates?
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
Shows how brittle my confidence is, despite figures like these for the LibDems, the bravado and spinning powers of the people I have bet against on here still makes me concerned I'll lose all my bets taking them on with UKIP
Same people who put me off UKIP in Rochester.. I was sure my logic was right.. but everyone knew better and put me off going for it
Shows how brittle my confidence is, despite figures like these for the LibDems, the bravado and spinning powers of the people I have bet against on here still makes me concerned I'll lose all my bets taking them on with UKIP
Same people who put me off UKIP in Rochester.. I was sure my logic was right.. but everyone knew better and put me off going for it
Sometimes you just have to trust your own gut feeling (Backed up by taking top price and a cold assesment of the odds against external indicators of course)
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
Neil's cocktail fund is going to be severely depleted.
I've promised to donate half the winnings to the cocktail fund.
Re Solihull.
It is possible for the Lib Dems to hold onto Solihull and lose other seats.
In 2010, they held on to the seat, yet lost other much safer seats to the Tories.
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
Isn't polling for the Lib Dems probably quite tricky now because basically they're holed up in the various fiefdoms, tend to answer for another party unless they're asked "in your constituency" and if you ask outside those fiefdoms you'll basically find "nil" ?
Musing over AndyJS's spreadsheet, there are still a large number of seats with no LD PPC. With 90 days to go I do wonder if they intend to run in all GB seats. Certainly to be 95 days away from the longstanding date it at the very least seems to indicate a certain lack of organisation. The Tories have a few empty too.
Interestingly, in all Glasgow seats and in many around the city neither Blues or yellows have selected. Is there a tacit plan to make it hard for the SNP by running only token (if any) rival Unionist candidates?
As regards your final para, why on earth would the Tories in particular follow such a strategy - it is surely in their interests that the SNP do well at Labour's expense?
Neil's cocktail fund is going to be severely depleted.
I've promised to donate half the winnings to the cocktail fund.
Re Solihull.
It is possible for the Lib Dems to hold onto Solihull and lose other seats.
In 2010, they held on to the seat, yet lost other much safer seats to the Tories.
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
I think it was more my losses on Solihull being a Tory gain in 2010 clouding my judgement.
It was offset by the Lib Dems winning Wells and the Tories gaining Winchester
I don't think it's a cunning plan, just the fact that both the Tories and LDs are very weak in Glasgow and hardly have any organisation in large parts of the city.
Isn't polling for the Lib Dems probably quite tricky now because basically they're holed up in the various fiefdoms, tend to answer for another party unless they're asked "in your constituency" and if you ask outside those fiefdoms you'll basically find "nil" ?
Musing over AndyJS's spreadsheet, there are still a large number of seats with no LD PPC. With 90 days to go I do wonder if they intend to run in all GB seats. Certainly to be 95 days away from the longstanding date it at the very least seems to indicate a certain lack of organisation. The Tories have a few empty too.
Interestingly, in all Glasgow seats and in many around the city neither Blues or yellows have selected. Is there a tacit plan to make it hard for the SNP by running only token (if any) rival Unionist candidates?
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
TSE - for the last two weeks, I've completely failed to find (even on the following day) YouGov's poll for The Sunday Times. When and where does this now first appear please?
Neil's cocktail fund is going to be severely depleted.
I've promised to donate half the winnings to the cocktail fund.
Re Solihull.
It is possible for the Lib Dems to hold onto Solihull and lose other seats.
In 2010, they held on to the seat, yet lost other much safer seats to the Tories.
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
I think it was more my losses on Solihull being a Tory gain in 2010 clouding my judgement.
It was offset by the Lib Dems winning Wells and the Tories gaining Winchester
Fair enough - We shouldn't let losers cloud our judgement though
Comments
Heres my logic
Thanet South 2/1 = Tories have put a top candidate here and there is enough anti-farage to see him fail. 2/1 is great value in a very competitve race.
Southampton Itchen 9/4 = Terrible fit for Labour here. She should be somewhere else but not here. Tory candidate is well known born raised in southampton and ran the council. Great price with apathy and low turnout factoring in.
Thurrock 6/1 = UKIP labour tories could all split he vote like in watford but here your getting a massive price with so many unknowns about how voters are going to do that the lifelong tories and coming home kippers could sneak it.
Any seat with a liberal democrat with high turnout is vulnerable. We know the lib dems have hardcore supporters but can they get 23-25k that they need in these southern seats. I seriously doubt it and thats why backing the tories to win in eastbourne, yeovil, devon, cheltenham and devon is great value.
skegness - i think the local/eruo elections will subisde and the tories will hold on.
small parties need voters to cross-over to defeat labour/conservative and i just dont think its going to happen. i think there is so much apathy now in politics that people just vote for who they want to win and not vote tactically as much as before.
''I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives. ''
A bit of a low blow to Mr K. But there again on that basis its a miracle I am not a member.
Don't you think it's important that such men have a political voice?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13b55dd6-a7b6-11e4-be63-00144feab7de.html#axzz3QQ6Iwb5k
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
It's worth wathing the video.
He just said that he wouldn't be a good fit personally.
I'll follow you in on Itchen though, looks realistic enough.
Always interesting to see how things progress from the first map.
Currently, by stereotype, men "have" to be mentally strong whilst women are "allowed" to be mentally weak. With equality between the sexes this stereotype goes away and thus so does the crushing social pressure which inhibits men from seeking help for mental issues,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11381533/Angela-Merkel-rules-out-debt-cancellation-for-Greece.html
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/theresa-may-fails-to-appoint-chair-for-child-abuse
You've got work to do, Alsister.
Young voters have been idealistic, and quite self-righteous about it, since time immemorial.
However, "in my day", there were quite a few of us who were ultra-libertarian and anti-government/state well. We saw it as our duty to question the status quo, and thrived on debating with each other.
I'm not sure that's so much the case today. It's probably just as likely that anyone openly questioning some cherished axioms of the liberal-left is asked to withdraw their criticism, and apologise, or is socially ostracised.
People in this country don't pay there credit cards. The credit card companies then offer lower payment or write it off.
We live like the medieval times where we have rules that must be adhered to when they don't.
Greece should just say NO
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
Thanet South UKIP for about the same NET too. (Losing more if Labour win it)
Thurrock on both UKIP and Labour.
Watch the #GameOfThrones season 5 trailer! http://bit.ly/1EVOw3O
See what fun a kipper brings you.
GoT is the best thing I've ever seen on television.
He did manage to get the first ever PB ASBO which was quite an achievement for having a go at Plato all the time. TBH I think it was Tim that had a woman problem but still.
Didn't he run an Offy?
Typically, c. 33% of 18-34 year olds are shown to support right of centre parties (in December Yougov had UKIP on 13% among young voters). So, I don't think the sorts of people you describe have disappeared. But, on university campuses, there's pressure to conform to left-wing orthodoxy, and a real intolerance of dissenting opinions.
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
Surely the pair of you should bet each other at the mid points?
I'm on Boston & Skeg for £70 UKIP @ 10-11
Thanet South UKIP for about the same NET too. (Losing more if Labour win it)
Thurrock on both UKIP and Labour.
I've got a bankroll of around 3k for this election for individual seats.
Like in Poker, I'll keep 1k of it for large bets on specific seats but I haven't looked into yet with Betfair. I'll try to get some promotions from them before I do my bets
Britain is expected to be named the fastest-growing major economy in the developed world last year after outpacing the United States.
Gross domestic product – the total size of the economy – increased by 2.6 per cent in 2014, the UK's best performance since 2007. Figures published yesterday in Washington showed the US economy grew by 2.4 per cent. The other G7 nations – Canada, Japan, Germany, France and Italy – have yet to announce their figures for last year, but are also expected to lag behind the UK.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2933985/British-economy-outpaces-G7-best-performance-2007.html#ixzz3QQMzvlfh
--------------
"Young voters shun Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg in general election poll"
Pity most of them don't bother to vote.
"Amongst 1st voters LAB leads by 15% according to Opinium. GRN on 19% UKIP 3% "
“If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” - W Churchill
"First-timers are strongly pro-EU"
Revealed: How children are 'brainwashed with European propaganda' handed out by EU staff at education fairs
European Commission official says they need 'to start early enough with the young people before they form prejudices and are misinformed by other sources'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2088404/Revealed-How-children-brainwashed-European-propaganda-handed-EU-staff-education-fairs.html
Paddy Power are 9-4 Conservative
Ladbrokes are 4-7 Labour,
16s UKIP etc
If another bookie and Ladbrokes are an arb, or semi-arbable price then the value is got with going with the other bookie.
In terms of wrong prices I reckon it's generally as follows:
Victor (Not too many politics bets though) > Stan James = Betfair Sportsbook > Paddy = Hills > Ladbrokes.
LAB - 33% (-)
CON - 32% (+4)
UKIP - 18% (-2)
GRN - 6% (-)
LDEM - 5% (-2)
Over the course of 50 years, we've moved from racial violence and abuse being typically a thing that is done by White people to Black people to a thing that is done by members of all races to each other.
Peak-kip?
Me-kip?
No-kip.
As for the Lib Dems, the Marianas Trench beckons.
They hit 5% with TNS last month.
What hasn't changed is the general head in the sand attitude of the authorities towards the "wrong sort of racism".
ParisSt Albans!"Interestingly, in all Glasgow seats and in many around the city neither Blues or yellows have selected. Is there a tacit plan to make it hard for the SNP by running only token (if any) rival Unionist candidates?
Just when you think the Lib Dems can't go any lower they do.
**re-Crossover alert!**
Part-ELBOW including Opinium (just the Sunday YG left):
Lab 33.1
Con 33.0
UKIP 15.5
LD 6.9
Grn 6.3
Lab lead 0.1%
Simple average says Tory 0.1% lead - but take your pick!
Maybe including YG will even them out?
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Same people who put me off UKIP in Rochester.. I was sure my logic was right.. but everyone knew better and put me off going for it
Re Solihull.
It is possible for the Lib Dems to hold onto Solihull and lose other seats.
In 2010, they held on to the seat, yet lost other much safer seats to the Tories.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
Sticking the boot in?
I'll get my coat.
It was offset by the Lib Dems winning Wells and the Tories gaining Winchester
2-5 looks huge for the Tories there.