TSE - for the last two weeks, I've completely failed to find (even on the following day) YouGov's poll for The Sunday Times. When and where does this now first appear please?
It generally first appears on here/on my twitter feed between 9 and 10pm on a Saturday night, then at 6 am Sunday morning on the YouGov website
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
I suspect that punters shy away from odds on bets because psychologically it doesn't feel right. As soon as you start betting on such things there is an expectation that you should win and that feels dangerous. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is value to be found in such seats.
The only thing I would say is that there's still the Ukip factor. I notice the Tories are 1/41 in Woking where I live and while I expect them to win comfortably, if they leak votes to Ukip it could get a bit close.
That said, if the Lib Dems poll 5 % I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with fewer than 10 seats.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
Just checked the Ashcroft poll for them.
2-5 looks huge for the Tories there.
Especially when you consider that the hugely popular incumbent is standing down and the Lib Dems are onto his second replacement.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
Everyone keep saying that. But if they are going to win so many seats, they should be in negative territory in many ! Right now on pure UNS, they are in negative territory in over 150 seats !!!
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
Just checked the Ashcroft poll for them.
2-5 looks huge for the Tories there.
Especially when you consider that the hugely popular incumbent is standing down and the Lib Dems are onto his second replacement.
Oh Lol just noted that, had a little £25 top up off the back of that info - if the Blues can't gain this seat doubt they'll even gain Solihull xD
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
antifrank - I was surprised a couple of days ago when you suggested backing 31-40 LD MPs (in combination with the 21-30 sear band). I personally can't see them winning close to 31+ seats.
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
I suspect that punters shy away from odds on bets because psychologically it doesn't feel right. As soon as you start betting on such things there is an expectation that you should win and that feels dangerous. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is value to be found in such seats.
The only thing I would say is that there's still the Ukip factor. I notice the Tories are 1/41 in Woking where I live and while I expect them to win comfortably, if they leak votes to Ukip it could get a bit close.
That said, if the Lib Dems poll 5 % I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with fewer than 10 seats.
The price range for seats is far too narrow compared to the overall, outsiders aren't long enough in alot of cases.
Or No Overall Majority is now too short. One of the two.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
I treat Survation, Opinium and MORI as expressions of enthusiasm for the minor parties rather than take them literally. Even on that basis, this is awful for the Lib Dems.
EDIT add Somerton & Frome to your Lib Dem death row.
antifrank - I was surprised a couple of days ago when you suggested backing 31-40 LD MPs (in combination with the 21-30 sear band). I personally can't see them winning close to 31+ seats.
There are other seats with small swings they'll probably keep, like Eastbourne and Sutton & Cheam. My best guess is more or less dead on 30 seats at present.
IMO the LDs can't be written off where they have incumbents standing again no matter how small the majority. So Solihull, Wells, St Austell could stay yellow. On the other hand marginal seats where the LD MP is standing down like Somerton and Mid Dorset are very likely to change hands.
Behind on both Ashcroft questions in both polls (June and September) and now slumping ever lower in the national polls, I don't care how sticky the Lib Dems are - in some constituencies they are surely gonners.
Top 2 candidates for the Blues are Solihull, 2-7 is probably still too long for them there.
2nd target: Wells, which the above refers to
4-9 with Paddy Power.
As Tissue Price's analysis revealed yesterday the favourite is often too long in these types of seats.
Lib Dem Seat band 41-60 is currently 7-1 (12s and 16s for the two that make it up) with Sky Bet for instance. If they hold Wells, they surely get over 41 seats.
DYOR
Lib Dems may end up at 15 - 19. The loot being shared by Labour, Tories and the SNP.
I think they'll do better than that, but Solihull and Wells must be marked for the blues.
Everyone keep saying that. But if they are going to win so many seats, they should be in negative territory in many ! Right now on pure UNS, they are in negative territory in over 150 seats !!!
Either the Lib Dems will underperform UNS or they will do better than 5%. Or both. I expect both. I feel an extended post coming on about a major curiosity of Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling.
It's a long time (at least two months) since I canvassed ANYONE who said they were going to vote LibDem, though I've met a couple who said they used to and would "keep minds open this time". If this is common, then I guess the LibDem 5% really is overwhelmingly concentrated where they have seats.
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
It's a long time (at least two months) since I canvassed ANYONE who said they were going to vote LibDem, though I've met a couple who said they used to and would "keep minds open this time". If this is common, then I guess the LibDem 5% really is overwhelmingly concentrated where they have seats.
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
I found one last week, shook them by the hands as I'd not come across one for weeks. I've always found Lib Dems difficult to identify, not something people readily admitted to when they were popular, never mind now.
It's a long time (at least two months) since I canvassed ANYONE who said they were going to vote LibDem, though I've met a couple who said they used to and would "keep minds open this time". If this is common, then I guess the LibDem 5% really is overwhelmingly concentrated where they have seats.
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
Opinium have come up with similar findings on several occasions in the last year. In addition to the poll of 4 weeks ago we have had:
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
In 2010 there was a 1.35% swing from yellow to blue, real margin of error stuff when you get down to a constituency level.
This time the swing looks likely to be at least 10%. You simply don't hold on in those circumstances unless you're in a fortress such as Eastleigh or Hallam. Also is it honestly likely that the Lib Dems are going to lose SIXTEEN safer seats and hold Solihull ?
Unlikely.
So I understand your point but the Conservatives are > 70% chance to gain Wells in my view.
If you don't think thats the case then the 41-50 and 51-60 seat bands are a great bet.
The Lib Dems could gain seats too, they could lose Solihull and gain St Albans for instance but I can't be convinced that 4-9 is a correct price for the Conservatives in Wells. 1-6 maybe.
I suspect that punters shy away from odds on bets because psychologically it doesn't feel right. As soon as you start betting on such things there is an expectation that you should win and that feels dangerous. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is value to be found in such seats.
The only thing I would say is that there's still the Ukip factor. I notice the Tories are 1/41 in Woking where I live and while I expect them to win comfortably, if they leak votes to Ukip it could get a bit close.
That said, if the Lib Dems poll 5 % I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with fewer than 10 seats.
The price range for seats is far too narrow compared to the overall, outsiders aren't long enough in alot of cases.
Or No Overall Majority is now too short. One of the two.
Or both.
@TSE, I'm fairly sanguine about IPSOS-Mori - the Green surge has plateaued a little and peak Kipper isn't receding all that quickly
TSE - for the last two weeks, I've completely failed to find (even on the following day) YouGov's poll for The Sunday Times. When and where does this now first appear please?
It generally first appears on here/on my twitter feed between 9 and 10pm on a Saturday night, then at 6 am Sunday morning on the YouGov website
Thanks. I don't do twitter which probably explains it!
Opinium have come up with similar findings on several occasions in the last year. In addition to the poll of 4 weeks ago we have had:
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
You can "prove" anything you like if you cherrypick polls.
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations. My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
It's a long time (at least two months) since I canvassed ANYONE who said they were going to vote LibDem, though I've met a couple who said they used to and would "keep minds open this time". If this is common, then I guess the LibDem 5% really is overwhelmingly concentrated where they have seats.
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
Im finding a lot of softness, there are a lot of people out there who just arent decided yet.
It's a long time (at least two months) since I canvassed ANYONE who said they were going to vote LibDem, though I've met a couple who said they used to and would "keep minds open this time". If this is common, then I guess the LibDem 5% really is overwhelmingly concentrated where they have seats.
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
Opinium have come up with similar findings on several occasions in the last year. In addition to the poll of 4 weeks ago we have had:
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
You can "prove" anything you like if you cherrypick polls.
There are four such examples from this pollster over ten months - hardly cherrypicking!
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
Opinium have come up with similar findings on several occasions in the last year. In addition to the poll of 4 weeks ago we have had:
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
You can "prove" anything you like if you cherrypick polls.
There are four such examples from this pollster over ten months - hardly cherrypicking!
Do the monthly average for Opinium and tell us what you find.
Part-ELBOW including Opinium (just the Sunday YG left):
Lab 33.1 Con 33.0 UKIP 15.5 LD 6.9 Grn 6.3
Lab lead 0.1%
Simple average says Tory 0.1% lead - but take your pick! Maybe including YG will even them out?
On a knife edge like GE 2015
Rod Crosby hard crossover at stake but Tory maj still 191% certain according to his model presumably
After 8 billion simulations, the Tory majority never went below 500. However, Rod Crosby was aghast when Prof.Fisher came in with a even higher Tory figure. Dan Hodges and John Rentoul immediately wrote glowing articles on the Tory landslide incorporating the figures.
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
The problem is that focussing on the NHS, since it was the only point that Labour had left, was always going to be difficult impossible. With nowhere left to go, and Wales NHS cutting off their retreat, 2015 was going to be tough for whoever was the leader.
It almost makes you feel sorry for Ed Miliband. Almost.
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
Opinium have come up with similar findings on several occasions in the last year. In addition to the poll of 4 weeks ago we have had:
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
You can "prove" anything you like if you cherrypick polls.
There are four such examples from this pollster over ten months - hardly cherrypicking!
Do the monthly average for Opinium and tell us what you find.
OK - since early March 2014 the average Labour lead with Opinium has been 3.7%
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
The problem is that focussing on the NHS, since it was the only point that Labour had left, was always going to be difficult impossible. With nowhere left to go, and Wales NHS cutting off their retreat, 2015 was going to be tough for whoever was the leader.
It almost makes you feel sorry for Ed Miliband. Almost.
I do feel sorry for PM Miliband. Are you Dan Hodges ?
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
Daily Mail online is free
And it's still too expensive.
I can thoroughly recommend KittenBlock for dealing with the Daily Mail.
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
so you want a state regulated press, soviet style
You want a press that fights for 1% and cons the middle class making feel part of the elite???
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
I think the leak (from who?) about weaponising the NHS has done for them there. The fact that it was leaked was not good news (for him that is). What I don't get was the muddle over whether it was said or not. If it was, say so and things will move on, or flatly deny it, but IIRC they hemmed and hawed about it, even though you would remember whether or not you said such a charged term.
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
so you want a state regulated press, soviet style
You want a press that fights for 1% and cons the middle class making feel part of the elite???
I heard a lovely story about the lawyer daughter of a billionaire who tore a judge to shreds over legal aid...will tell you if you make it to the next PB drinks (& remind me).
Labour are home and dry - Tories cannot rise above a certain level, and Labour cannot fall below a certain level it seems. People suddenly finding out about Ed M is not going to alter that dynamic enough
Don’t let it be said that Ed Miliband’s political leadership is useless. It has, in fact, just provided an instructive demonstration in how not to play your strongest electoral card. Over the next three months, his team may well proceed to offer a degree-level course in How to Throw Away an Election – but last week’s introductory module was an education in itself. Having “weaponised” the NHS, Mr Miliband then – choose your metaphor – had it blow up in his face, or shot himself in the foot, or fired a succession of blanks. By the end of the week, Labour’s ace vote-winning issue had become one more grotesquely embarrassing morass of internecine warfare, contradictory statements, ill-thought-out policy and, finally, unconvincing denials that the whole initiative had gone horribly wrong.
The problem is that focussing on the NHS, since it was the only point that Labour had left, was always going to be difficult impossible. With nowhere left to go, and Wales NHS cutting off their retreat, 2015 was going to be tough for whoever was the leader.
It almost makes you feel sorry for Ed Miliband. Almost.
I do feel sorry for PM Miliband. Are you Dan Hodges ?
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Another CEO of a fat company getting a Tory spot in the house of lords for getting involved in the election.
I wonder how much his salary has increased since 2010 compared to his staff.
Its easy to talk behind gated buildings and security guards.
What I don't get was the muddle over whether it was said or not. If it was, say so and things will move on, or flatly deny it, but IIRC they hemmed and hawed about it, even though you would remember whether or not you said such a charged term.
The assumption is he can't deny it because too many people heard him say it.
He can't admit it, because every time Labour say NHS the Tories would say weaponise (although that is now happening so maybe nothing to lose)
I don't read newspapers anymore. I used to buy the times and mail.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Another CEO of a fat company getting a Tory spot in the house of lords for getting involved in the election.
.
Well it is not as though Labour doesn't reward people the same way. As long as the place exists, the parties will use it as a reward.
I'm surprised. Do you think a LD lost deposit in Broxtowe is possible?
Yes, but not certain. I suspect I know who their candidate will be if they have any sense and if they do, he'll get a decent personal vote. Also, there's a reverse tailcoat effect to consider - they have several well-liked councillors.
What is baffling us all is the UKIP website. Why doesn't it say anything about their candidate, beyond his name? I know more about him than they seem to (he's an Ilkeston businessman).
What I don't get was the muddle over whether it was said or not. If it was, say so and things will move on, or flatly deny it, but IIRC they hemmed and hawed about it, even though you would remember whether or not you said such a charged term.
The assumption is he can't deny it because too many people heard him say it.
He can't admit it, because every time Labour say NHS the Tories would say weaponise (although that is now happening so maybe nothing to lose)
Precisely - the Tories would always use the report of it, so why not admit to it upfront and maybe it gets played out quickly, but since it isn't admitted the Tories can keep using it as though making a revelation each time, daring Labour to deny it (which clearly they cannot, or they would have)
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Another CEO of a fat company getting a Tory spot in the house of lords for getting involved in the election.
I wonder how much his salary has increased since 2010 compared to his staff.
Its easy to talk behind gated buildings and security guards.
When a CEO makes such statements Labour needs to highlight how much his salary has increased in recent years - including bonuses paid - and how much he stands to gain from the cut in the higher rate of Income Tax.
I think it is a standard rule to say you won't be campaigning negatively, and so when people accuse you of it, truthfully, you can pretend you promised you wouldn't so either it is not true, or it was not official and so doesn't count
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Another CEO of a fat company getting a Tory spot in the house of lords for getting involved in the election.
I wonder how much his salary has increased since 2010 compared to his staff.
Its easy to talk behind gated buildings and security guards.
When I checked he was paid a reasonable amount, but not excessively (around £200,000 IIRC, but that was probably 10 years ago - so something like 10x the average salary for his staff I'd guess).
Put it like this: he inherited a near-bankrupt Italian distribution company with revenues or around $1 million (so worth about $150,000) in 1970.
Through clever operations - Ornella deserves lots of credit; she's really the unsung heroine - inspired deal making he's converted that into an 18% stake in Walgreens.
Labour are home and dry - Tories cannot rise above a certain level, and Labour cannot fall below a certain level it seems. People suddenly finding out about Ed M is not going to alter that dynamic enough
This election is not home and dry for anyone. Once the voters start engaging with the election and the choices they have to make anything can happen including a result that would make governing the country extremely unstable.
Labour are home and dry - Tories cannot rise above a certain level, and Labour cannot fall below a certain level it seems. People suddenly finding out about Ed M is not going to alter that dynamic enough
This election is not home and dry for anyone. Once the voters start engaging with the election and the choices they have to make anything can happen including a result that would make governing the country extremely unstable.
I had meant to add 'depending on Scotland'. As long as that is not a wipeout for Labour, i cannot see anything but a Labour win, despite their weaknesses the factors including LD and Tory weaknesses are too much in their favour. They don't deserve it, but it's hard for them to lose I think.
It is not the outcome I would prefer, but all the things that could work in the Tories' favour I cannot see reversing the factors weighing them down by enough to make the difference.
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily 1m1 minute ago Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election
Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Relatively surprised by that article. I've know Stefano pretty well for almost 15 years (last saw him when he pinched my table at Scala's in Union Square a few weeks ago) and it's unlike him to speak out so publicly.
Another CEO of a fat company getting a Tory spot in the house of lords for getting involved in the election.
I wonder how much his salary has increased since 2010 compared to his staff.
Its easy to talk behind gated buildings and security guards.
When a CEO makes such statements Labour needs to highlight how much his salary has increased in recent years - including bonuses paid - and how much he stands to gain from the cut in the higher rate of Income Tax.
I'm not sure I agree there, but then I only lived a mile away from Thornton Heath where disabled teenager Terry May was dragged of a motorbike and murdered in 1981 by a gang of thugs, apparently for no other reason than his white skin colour, none of whom was ever convicted of murder. It always happened, but is now a much bigger problem. Oddly enough no one instigated a huge public enquiry into his death.
What hasn't changed is the general head in the sand attitude of the authorities towards the "wrong sort of racism".
It is genuinely funny when anyone's response to a racist murder to to institutionalise racism into the national psyche. Racism is bad, regardless who does it. Becoming more racist and supporting a racist party like UKIP/BNP/EDL as an outcome doesn't stop racism. It promotes it.
Comments
The only thing I would say is that there's still the Ukip factor. I notice the Tories are 1/41 in Woking where I live and while I expect them to win comfortably, if they leak votes to Ukip it could get a bit close.
That said, if the Lib Dems poll 5 % I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with fewer than 10 seats.
6/1 with Mr Hill
Or No Overall Majority is now too short. One of the two.
Wisdom Index poll: Tories narrowly ahead in election race
An exclusive ICM poll for The Telegraph predicts that Ukip support is falling, while the Tories edge ahead in the Midlands, the South and even Wales
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11367694/Wisdom-Index-poll-Tories-narrowly-ahead-in-election-race.html
Nothing special to report this weekend - the picture seems unchanged from recent weeks, with minds generally made up. We had over 1000 canvass contacts last weekend, worthy of an Ashcroft constituency poll. I think the only substantial black swan left is the leader debates. I'm doing less doorstep work myself now that the canvassing is in full swing without me, and concentrating on phoning the waverers and undecideds who we do find.
The Oakeshott/ICM poll had St Vince losing?
24/10/14 Con 33 Lab 33 LD 6 UKIP 18
23/5/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 7 UKIP 19
28/3/14 Con 32 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 15
Not much sign there of ‘swingback’ or decline in the Labour vote over the last 10 months! The Tory vote appears to be rather volatile with Opinium with Labour’s lead fluctuating accordingly.
@TSE, I'm fairly sanguine about IPSOS-Mori - the Green surge has plateaued a little and peak Kipper isn't receding all that quickly
I expect their views about economics will change over time. Their distaste for the xenophobia probably will not, any more than there has been a continuation of the attitudes to race relations of the 1960s and 1970s in younger generations. My Dad works in a rough East London school with about 100 different nationalities attending and unless he likes a porky pie to me, intolerance of race and religion between the students is as common as ever (and barely any of the children are English)
A friend of mine made a comment like yours last month to me... he lives in a posh part of town too
Well said @isam
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11382145/Labour-government-will-be-catastrophic-for-Britain-warns-Boots-boss.html
Labour would halt plans to slash on-call legal aid solicitors
Sadiq Khan, promises to improve access to justice by launching an immediate review of the coalition’s proposed 8.75% fee cuts
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2015/jan/30/labour-pledges-review-legal-aid-cuts-sadiq-khan
The problem is that focussing on the NHS, since it was the only point that Labour had left, was always going to be difficult impossible. With nowhere left to go, and Wales NHS cutting off their retreat, 2015 was going to be tough for whoever was the leader.
It almost makes you feel sorry for Ed Miliband. Almost.
I stopped reading the evening standard.
Reason - tired of reading biased articles with an agenda to get the right elected with no respect for the other side. Its an absolute disgrace that these papers can write this daily crap with an agenda without no regulation.
To be honest I'd love every paper to shut down to end the daily bigotry, xenophobia, hate, division and fight to represent the interests of the 1%.
The press is not free. its corrupt and bent. Stop wasting your money on crap
Lab 47 [ 38 ]
Con 24 [ 28 ]
LD 2 [ 7 ]
This is the first simulation I have come across where the LDs lose Bermondsey. By the way, the two are Twickenham and Kingston & Surbiton.
Its modern.
BTW what did you think of Kingsman.
I predict you liked the ending at the bottom of the film!!
I might watch it on Monday.
The problem is that focussing on the NHS, since it was the only point that Labour had left, was always going to be difficult impossible. With nowhere left to go, and Wales NHS cutting off their retreat, 2015 was going to be tough for whoever was the leader.
It almost makes you feel sorry for Ed Miliband. Almost.
I do feel sorry for PM Miliband. Are you Dan Hodges ?
I think the leak (from who?) about weaponising the NHS has done for them there. The fact that it was leaked was not good news (for him that is).
Obviously there are a number of things about UKIP, but what must stand out (apart from rough diamonds) is Farage blaming M4 traffic jams on immigrants. I suppose it could be worse since much of the increased traffic is due to more women drivers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2242074/More-women-driving-seat-Number-female-drivers-accelerates-twice-rate-male-motorists.html
8 million pounds of guacamole will be consumed
14,500 tons of chips will be consumed
1.25 billion chicken wings will be devoured
325 million gallons of beer will wash it all down.
The line started after the championship games favoring Seattle by 2.5 points, but has gradually come back to favoring New England by 1.
Con 32, Lab 35, LD 7, UKIP 15, Greens 6
Have risked lots of winnings on Matin Laird to lead after 3rd round.
If he wins could be a magical 4 figure win day if he finishes in 1st 3 tonight will still be a very nice betting day.
Dont get many so i have my fingers crossed for last 5 holes
32% think Greek government are taking right course, 35% the wrong one, 33% DK
What I don't get was the muddle over whether it was said or not. If it was, say so and things will move on, or flatly deny it, but IIRC they hemmed and hawed about it, even though you would remember whether or not you said such a charged term.
Do you really think the Daily Mirror does that?
Tonight's YouGov poll:
Conservative 32 -2
Labour 35 +1
Liberal Democrat 7 +1
UKIP 15 +1
Green 6 -1
Other 5
Situation static.
Lovely lady & as feisty as her Dad.
QTWTAIN
I wonder how much his salary has increased since 2010 compared to his staff.
Its easy to talk behind gated buildings and security guards.
He can't admit it, because every time Labour say NHS the Tories would say weaponise (although that is now happening so maybe nothing to lose)
Thank God!
The British journalist.
But seeing what the man will do
Unbribed -
There is no reason to
We are massively outnumbered i am afraid
(The film I mean, not just the ending. But do stay for the extra scene after the credits...)
@GdnPolitics: Labour rules out ‘negative’ election campaign posters http://t.co/x98h1skPmp
What is baffling us all is the UKIP website. Why doesn't it say anything about their candidate, beyond his name? I know more about him than they seem to (he's an Ilkeston businessman).
http://www.ukipnotts.org/ukip_broxtowe.html
So Lab still ahead on week, month or however you care to measure it.
Rod Crosby hard crossover has gone then too.
Makes no difference to his model presumably Tories majority still 177% chance
Put it like this: he inherited a near-bankrupt Italian distribution company with revenues or around $1 million (so worth about $150,000) in 1970.
Through clever operations - Ornella deserves lots of credit; she's really the unsung heroine - inspired deal making he's converted that into an 18% stake in Walgreens.
He's one of the businessmen that I most respect.
https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/561537443472867329?utm_source=fb&fb_ref=Default&utm_content=561537443472867329&utm_campaign=ChrisLeslieMP&utm_medium=fb
And yeah, it was freeeezing...
Indeed Owls now owned by John West brand been stocking up on Tuna this very morning,
BTW are you aware of Huntingdons free race tickets bagged some earlier this week for meeting on 1/3/15.
Am staying with friends with Mrs BJ and looking forward to my first Huntingdon races visit for about 20 years
Sunday Times reporting: Francis Maude, Conservative MP for Horsham, is standing down as an MP at the election
Another one seeing the writing on the wall. IIRC didn't Martians land on Horsham Common?