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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom
62% of 1st time voters tell Opinium that UK's membership of EU is good thing. 14% say "bad"
http://t.co/I2bAgori4h pic.twitter.com/k2xYUkVV5n
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Pulpstar said:
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I should have listened to you rather than that Bedford shyster on the turnout !The turnout markets were like free money for months. I was astonished the bands remained so low through to polling day.
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The level of engagement coupled with the critical nature of the vote for the electorate for their everyday life going forward for decades to come was a sure fire pincer movement for a high turnout.
Looking at the betting markets in some of the university towns in the midlands, I think for anyone who is out to make money in this election, these seats could result in a massive profit.
Loughborough is seriously looking tremendous value for example at 6/5. Nicky Morgan is favourite to win but she has a very small majority while Labour has 10,000 lib dems, 2000 bnp voters to chase after while ukip have a platform of nothing to go from and nicky morgan is a europhile.
The only question in doubt is will labour put resources into the seat or will they be targeting the seats in notts and derbyshire with softer tory mps to go after. Morgan being a Minister shouldn't put labour off a hard long campaign.
I don't think it was Brown that spooked them into the Vow. Look at this chart of the polls: Yes was climbing and the lead was closing. The crossover poll was not that extraordinary. Hence the Vow.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sj/chart.php?b=0&s_Date=&s_Date1=&o_lcl=data_2_Date_5&c_Smpl=Aqua&h_Smpl=&c_Yes=Blue&h_Yes=1&c_No=Red&h_No=1&c_Undc=Tomato&h_Undc=&c_Lead=Black&h_Lead=1
MikeK said:
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I would love to see your face if UKIP really win over100 seats JackW. I don't think you would recover from something more than apoplexy. We would all mourn, but smirk at the same time.
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I should hope so too.
What is life and indeed death if we can't smile at our both our good fortune and adversity.
Conservative share:
Past week: 32.6%
Preceding week: 31.4%
The past 7 days did not include Opinium who have hitherto tended to poll the lowest Conservative shares so this will be interesting. I'd like to see another week's worth of polls to see if the above trend continues.
Weren't we all young and naive once too - its no big surprise they back Labour and the Greens. When they are 40, have a big mortgage, paying lots of taxes and paying off the national debt - will they still do the same?
Still I suppose if you are worried about low wages, the cost of housing, supposed underfunding of the NHS and more having an open door to the rest of the EU is a good way to make them worse!
Don't think everyone is naive and dull and vote Tory just because they have two pennies to rub against together.
What is beyond doubt is that like generations before them they will eventually grow up to realise the real world is not and cannot be like that.
All raised the subject of the UK GE and to a man and woman, they wanted a steady-as-we-are going government, preferably a Con majority or a stronger ConDem coalition. This they felt is best for Europe whilst it undergoes its EZ struggles.
None were in favour of EDM as PM which they all felt would be regressive step for both the economies of the UK and the EU.
Anyone take my 7-1 tip for top 4 finish (Labrokes) this morning?!
They are very worried about Britain leaving the EU and would prefer Cameron just comes out and says what he says privately that he is a europhile and wants Britain to be in the European Union.
But Cameron isn't a straight forward politician. He just wants the job for his personal ego not becaues he cares about this country. Hes one of those guys we all encounter through networking on linkedln that want the status job title but doesn't have a passion.
Being Prime Minister is just a job. He doesn't want to change Britain and make it better and thats why people are disappointed in him
The yellow snow is melting away. Interesting that the kippers seem to be putting in most effort in areas where the LibDems were strongest
Yes easy to see you took the wrong bus.
Its ok, Nick Clegg's family still love him. (probably).
Welcome to the site, Mr. Pro, Mr. Marty.
"Sounds sinister" said the Cameroons when they heard he had been up to no good, hoping to stir up a bit of UKIP hate
Then up he popped with Dave... and the tune was changed!
What happened to Amjad? Is he locked in a cupboard a la Craig in Bo Selecta?
Theresa May promised a new chair of the crisis-ridden child abuse inquiry would be in place 'by the end of the month'. That's today.
Another great Tory promise seemingly broken. Seemingly only because it's not midnight.
surely a poxy newspaper that will end up in the bin after 1 minute of reading is a waste of money? or is the aim with 100 days to go to try to change the perceptions like the corporate giants attempt to change their reputation.
Why don't you just offer voters money to vote tory as incentives?
Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
Just name some please
Cheltenham - 9/4 Conservatives
Devon North - 11/10 Conservatives
Kingston/Surbiton - 13/8 Conservatives
Eastbourne - 13/8 Conservatives
Think all 4 races are very good value as all the races will have high turnout making the ld vote very vulnerable.
Saying that I still think 11/5 LD hold in Inverness is a cracking price to hold of the snp
This is a right wing blog for right wing people, there is nothing for the likes of you here!
(but it can be good for a snigger at some of the delusions)
In the mean time, we'll just have to make do with delivering poxy newspapers to keep our candidate's name recognition and profile raised up in 1 minute chunks....
The Lib Dems are in trouble precisely because they didn't bribe the students (A core lib dem vote) - a damning indictement of the electorate tbh.
To clarify the throwaway remark above, the site was founded and is run by a former LibDem councillor and LibDem parliamentary candidate. Whilst Mike tries to be balanced there does tend to be a pro-LibDem and anti-Tory bias in the main thread headers, at least that's what a number of us feel. We accept that because it's still a damned good site and until recently was full of good honest debate. Many of the more active posters on here tend to be to the right of Cameron's Conservatives and we desperately could do with some more Labour posters back on board. We used to have a very vociferous Labourite called Tim but he was banned, not I think because of his red views. I rather miss him now.
(By the way, I'm a Conservative but want to see balance.)
But maybe disaffected LibDems are the low-hanging fruits for UKIP?
Education, education, education.
No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
Just name some please
Well unfortunately we live in a country now where if you say something bad against Cameron, his friends in the media, then go after the company, charity or family through smear campaigns. Just ask the RSPCA after they criticized Camerons rural policies, the daily mail and telegraph have written over 20 articles attacking this organisation.
The bankers created the financial crisis, the media blamed Labour, the middle class are paying the debt that the bankers created.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
Herre is George Osborne in 2007 before the financial crisis. No mention of debt. No mention of spending. Just that he would promise to match Labours spending plans.
Financial crisis happens...the tories music changes..the media does the job for them.
Quite obviously you have not met him and had an of-the-record conversation with him.
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No but I've met and spoken to CEOs, heads of NGOs, think-tanks that have and both on-off the record they have said that he just wants the job for his personal pride and to put on his cv not because he wants to tackle big problems or issues.
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Well I have met him and have talked with him, actually in a room just the two of us, and I repudiate that completely. It's what they call in the trade, a load of cobblers.
@cathynewman: . @andyburnhammp just told me "I disagree profoundly" with Alan Milburn re NHS; "he's not in parliament; has moved on to other things"
But at least they have a winner in Ed...
@cathynewman: "We're going to turn the whole country off if that's the question we get" @andyburnhammp on @Ed_Miliband & the personality question
It was probably for the best. You could tell what he thought of Ed Miliband. Shilling for Ed would have destroyed what passed for tim's soul....
(Isam, all irony accepted
The LD's felt good about themselves getting lots of votes, but many were NOTA's.. just as many Green and UKIP votes are now
The polling firm that Ashcroft uses is Survation in liverpool street. The people reading the survies are from 18-22 on £7 an hour. Do you really trust their ability to tick a box on an 15 minute survey?
From experience, for every 5 questions, one question will be marked down incorrectly.
Maybe this is why his polls are inaccurate and were so far off in 2010. If he used a better polling firm with professional market researchers who can conduct both quan/qual interviews to the right standards maybe they would get more accurate data.
You'll want to go large on Labour most seats if you think Loughborough will fall btw - it's a better 6-5 or so.
Well unfortunately we live in a country now where if you say something bad against Cameron, his friends in the media, then go after the company, charity or family through smear campaigns. Just ask the RSPCA after they criticized Camerons rural policies, the daily mail and telegraph have written over 20 articles attacking this organisation.
The RSPCA get it in the neck from the media for turning into a charity more interested in politics and making people's lives miserable, than animal welfare.
I believe others, including Mr. Tapestry, have made a similar suggestion. It's interesting that Farage has not.
To put into perspective, Abu Dhabi Investment Promotion Authority paid a market research company 900,000 for 600 interviews and the interview length was 20 minutes.
on loughborough
Well i'm thinking of betting individual seats and cherry picking around 50 seats staking 30-40 each like I do in Poker playing 30-50 euros don. If I keep backing the 2nd favourite i'm getting value. im not getting involved with most seats as I prefer to base my bets on local issues, local candidates, geography and also the number of movable voters.
I'm backing Labour to win loughborugh because there are 12k voters that will be changing the way they vote. its a small majority so £50 bet will give me a good profit.
What has got into you today?
They have raised £78m over the last 5 years. They have operating costs and other expenditure. Besides there are caps on expenditure once you enter the long campaign (which I believe was mid December)
My views these days are probably closest to the orange booker side of the Lib Dems - even if everyone else does hate them.
Actually a shame for Clegg and co that they have not been in opposition for the last 5 years as they could have made an absolute killing in 2015. I would expect that if Cameron had got a few more seats and had a majority in 2010, that current polling would see Cons, Lab and Lib all in the 25%-30% range.
All too often, though, he was vile and aggressive, especially towards women.
More or less a history of Pakistan since independence. A long and unhappy story.
I can only put the fact that there is no evidence to back up my assumption down to the nefarious activities of assorted lizards
BTW welcome to PB.
Canvassing and leafleting is fairly common and traditional. Your accusations of bribery are pretty shallow.
Boston/Skegness - 11/8
Brecon - 13/8
Cheltenham - 9/4
Devon North - 11/10
Eastbourne - 13/8
Thanet South - 2/1
Thurrock - 6/1
Southampton Itchen - 9/4
Southport - 5/2
Yeovil - 10/3
I go for value and with a spread of 40-50 seats things will fall
The best of Britain - the 10,657 and counting strangers who through gofundme have raised 137k in just two days to help him rebuild his life.
One of us is off to the poorhouse if those stay blue
I'm on the realistic other side in quite a few of those.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/mens-health/11377311/If-as-many-women-killed-themselves-as-men-wed-never-hear-the-end-of-it.html
You should look into UKIP's policies. Don't be scared, we don't bite: http://www.ukip.org/
BTW welcome to PB.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
BTW welcome to PB.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
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I can assure you, that you are completely wrong in your assumption about support, in your last paragraph. We have many young warriors in the Peoples Army.
The unpleasantness and smell comes from those that try to smear and disparage UKIP.
Charles, yes I'd forgotten that. He could be very misogynistic IIRC.
Don't get me wrong, Farage is a superb orator - some of his rants in the European parliament are beautiful. But I'm pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU (although I would prefer just a free market).
UKIP have some interesting policies but there is just too much of an undertone of unpleasantness and I can't get away from the fact that it appears most of their support comes from middle aged men that have led largely disappointing lives.
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I can assure you, that you are completely wrong in your assumption about support, in your last paragraph. We have many young warriors in the Peoples Army.
The unpleasantness and smell comes from those that try to smear and disparage UKIP.
I don't know UKIP around my area are doing a pretty good job of disparaging themselves:
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-shambles-as-three-members-quit-over-hampshire-branch-organisers-violent-criminal-past-10011395.html
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949