She is getting divorced and her new bloke is based in Brighton instead of up north.
I’ve a feeling that she’s done nothing wrong but the problem is you need to be whiter than white as a politician because any slight issue will be blown up in half stories
And especially a left wing politician. If you're one of those a bit of routine tax efficiency in your personal affairs can lead to accusations of 'hypocrisy'.
I don't think she's lax, I think there is a bit of the story (divorce) which both explains everything and the papers are avoiding talking about..
Except for paying council tax in both places as if it was her primary residence.
If it is divorce related you suck it up and pay both. May be 2k more - she can afford it
You do know the issue is £40,000 in stamp duty - the papers claim its due because its a second home, she didn't pay it because she claims it isn't...
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakf 22ast.
France has the worse position because it has no independent currency. Combined with no government, new elections coming sooner makes me think they'll face crisis first.
The UK will plod along in an unsustainable position but falling short of crisis for a number of years, in my opinion.
I don't agree, France has an implicit debt guarantor within the EMU. There is a wink and a nod that should things go south then Germany and the Netherlands will pick up the bill through the same mechanisms that they did when Greece went bankrupt.
Yep. France can ultimately draw on the vast resources of the ECB and - in the end - the unified debt of the EU
The EU could afford to let a small peripheral member like Greece go bust and maybe even grexit. France is the most important EU member alongside Germany. If France falls then the euro and the EU are mortally endangered. Can’t happen. Hence the lower interest rate France pays for debt
Just on government bond yields, it is worth remembering that the UK is affected by the US, and US long term yields have risen from under 4%, to about 5%. So, yes, Starmer (and Reeves) have been shit, and their actions have led to higher bond yields.
But investors generally are taking the view that interest rates and inflation are rising worldwide.
I think UK economic prospects look brighter than everyone is making out. Business confidence is up, wages are up and Reeves seems to be grasping the opportunity of property tax reform from the necessity of raising more money.
Yet the one thing we haven't seen in the leaks is a sensible property tax reform proposal..
She is getting divorced and her new bloke is based in Brighton instead of up north.
I’ve a feeling that she’s done nothing wrong but the problem is you need to be whiter than white as a politician because any slight issue will be blown up in half stories
And especially a left wing politician. If you're one of those a bit of routine tax efficiency in your personal affairs can lead to accusations of 'hypocrisy'.
I don't think she's lax, I think there is a bit of the story (divorce) which both explains everything and the papers are avoiding talking about..
Except for paying council tax in both places as if it was her primary residence.
If it is divorce related you suck it up and pay both. May be 2k more - she can afford it
You do know the issue is £40,000 in stamp duty - the papers claim its because its a second home, but she didn't pay it because it isn't...
She doesn't own her constituency house, it is owned by a Trust with her 3 children as beneficiaries, and in London she has a Grace and Favour flat, owned by the government. So in legal terms for stamp duty the flat in Hove is her sole property, not a second home.
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I picture him at home eating a reheated Asda curry under a 40 foot wide Union Jack, while also frowning with concern that the flag may be seen as “divisive”
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I picture him at home eating a reheated Asda curry under a 40 foot wide Union Jack, while also frowning with concern that the flag may be seen as “divisive”
Eating it while taking the knee. For old times sake. Simpler times.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
Would nationalisation cure this problem, or are "the markets" just too powerful now?
Nationalisation would need assets to be booked, and not just expenditure. But it is futile anyway because the next government would just flog them all off again. And not even Jeremy Corbyn would want to nationalise Harrods or Manchester United.
The government also needs to be a bit cuter about favouring British rather than American companies. Look at the number of tech contracts handed over to Microsoft, AWS, Oracle or Palantir, and contrast with the way America invokes national security so that not even the dog warden can host a website overseas, or the way foreign wealth funds were blocked from buying ports. Look at the billions of dollars of subsidies and pump-priming for American firms, whereas we cut investment.
We do need to find some way of retaining British companies, whether the answer lies in the tax system, venture capital, pensions or what.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
This is the price of running a trade deficit for nearly 30 years. To balance the books we sell assets to the same value as the deficit every year. If you want this to stop we need to reduce consumption, increase investment, probably devalue and export more. It really is as simple as that but the electorate and our political class would rather put their fingers in their ears and then lament the inevitable consequences.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Yes of course. This is why Britain is first in the firing line
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I damn well hope it's the second. Frankly, the same goes for any politician above bored backbencher grade. They have much more important things to do with their time, as does Muskybaby.
(Doesn't let senior politicians off the hook. Even if they are only checking the person who is checking the person who is checking the person who is tweeting, they need to be making sure that there is quality all along the chain, and that clearly isn't happening. I'll let him off not having the words himself, but in that case he needs to find someone with the words.)
I’m sitting next to a young married couple, the woman is pretty and bright, he is quite handsome and ridiculous. She is wincing at his inept and flailing humour
It is becoming painfully obvious to her that she has mistakenly married an idiot. Her anguish is palpable. I see her as Britain under Boris
What does one do? Should I stage an intervention?
You're offering yourself as a Starmer ?
Best not.
Starmer is, by all accounts, including people with direct knowledge - a successful ladies man. How can that be? He’s a humourless dolt of the first water
Yet he is - or was - handsome. He is living reproof of the idea women go for brains and wit
Good looking, stupid and rich beats ugly, smart and poor every time. People don't have sex for conversation, they get that from their friends or their second marriages. First marriages are about sex and having children
Makes me glad I stuck with my first marriage then.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
This is the price of running a trade deficit for nearly 30 years. To balance the books we sell assets to the same value as the deficit every year. If you want this to stop we need to reduce consumption, increase investment, probably devalue and export more. It really is as simple as that but the electorate and our political class would rather put their fingers in their ears and then lament the inevitable consequences.
Don't worry! We're going to elect a bunch of people who promise even more sweeties, for even less cost.
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I picture him at home eating a reheated Asda curry under a 40 foot wide Union Jack, while also frowning with concern that the flag may be seen as “divisive”
Eating it while taking the knee. For old times sake. Simpler times.
Asda curry? Surely he is north london dinner party tofu-eating wokerati?
I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
This is the price of running a trade deficit for nearly 30 years. To balance the books we sell assets to the same value as the deficit every year. If you want this to stop we need to reduce consumption, increase investment, probably devalue and export more. It really is as simple as that but the electorate and our political class would rather put their fingers in their ears and then lament the inevitable consequences.
I think it's coming up to the 60th anniversary of the last planned devaluation - seems fitting. We can all sit around with Union Jack pork pie hats on, bunting, and braying at foreigners for two minutes.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Will Germany be prepared to continue to pay the price to keep France in eurozone?
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I picture him at home eating a reheated Asda curry under a 40 foot wide Union Jack, while also frowning with concern that the flag may be seen as “divisive”
Eating it while taking the knee. For old times sake. Simpler times.
Asda curry? Surely he is north london dinner party tofu-eating wokerati?
I'm sure if he could shake off the guilt. Looking wistfully at an artisan 'cook at home' curry kit, then shuffling down the Asda to keep his perceived credentials.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Will Germany be prepared to continue to pay the price to keep France in eurozone?
I imagine if they can squeeze some advantageous terms out of the commission in return, then sure.
Just on government bond yields, it is worth remembering that the UK is affected by the US, and US long term yields have risen from under 4%, to about 5%. So, yes, Starmer (and Reeves) have been shit, and their actions have led to higher bond yields.
But investors generally are taking the view that interest rates and inflation are rising worldwide.
Our gilt rates do tend to follow American bond rates. And the US have the distinct disadvantage of a completely deranged kleptomaniac in the White House who is determined to make the Fed his poodle. This is a problem for the government here and not their fault but they are not helping themselves.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Will Germany be prepared to continue to pay the price to keep France in eurozone?
Yes, as long as they think the price of not doing so will be greater (which it would).
Just on government bond yields, it is worth remembering that the UK is affected by the US, and US long term yields have risen from under 4%, to about 5%. So, yes, Starmer (and Reeves) have been shit, and their actions have led to higher bond yields.
But investors generally are taking the view that interest rates and inflation are rising worldwide.
I think UK economic prospects look brighter than everyone is making out. Business confidence is up, wages are up and Reeves seems to be grasping the opportunity of property tax reform from the necessity of raising more money.
Yet the one thing we haven't seen in the leaks is a sensible property tax reform proposal..
I'd be very happy with scrapping stamp duty for an annual % tax on more expensive homes. Raise money, make it easier for people to move and downsize.
Just loving how many rightwing newspaper columnist types spend every morning glued to the 30-year gilts market so they can tweet at some point in the day that this is the end of Britain.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
This is the price of running a trade deficit for nearly 30 years. To balance the books we sell assets to the same value as the deficit every year. If you want this to stop we need to reduce consumption, increase investment, probably devalue and export more. It really is as simple as that but the electorate and our political class would rather put their fingers in their ears and then lament the inevitable consequences.
I think it's coming up to the 60th anniversary of the last planned devaluation - seems fitting. We can all sit around with Union Jack pork pie hats on, bunting, and braying at foreigners for two minutes.
I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
I am a data point of 1. But I’m on Mounjaro and: I’m drinking less booze, eating less food, moving around more, and generally feeling better and buzzier. I’ve also dropped a few pounds
I still drink too much alcohol by the standards of most. But it’s down ~40%. Or more
I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
Though there's a very plausible mechanism here; anything that breaks the "I eat too much because I'm depressed" > "I'm depressed because I'm obese" feedback loop is likely to have pretty strong positive MH effects.
I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
Of course, and it's not a clinical trial.
I too retain some scepticism about these drugs, particularly what might be the effects of long term use. But they are undeniably and remarkably effective, thus far, in improving health outcomes for obese individuals. (As is, of course, losing weight by more natural means.)
What also remains to be seen is to what extent some of those health benefits might (if at all) outweigh those from conventional weight loss / alcohol abstinence, etc.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakf 22ast.
France has the worse position because it has no independent currency. Combined with no government, new elections coming sooner makes me think they'll face crisis first.
The UK will plod along in an unsustainable position but falling short of crisis for a number of years, in my opinion.
The French deficit is roughly twice what is allowed under the ECB rules. But, unlike Greece and Italy, they are not being held to account for this because, well, they are France. There must be a limit beyond which others whose financial futures are tied to the Euro are going to get very unhappy with their currency being undermined in this way but quite when is unclear.
"Overwhelmingly white’ countryside needs more halal food, report claims Academics argue that rural England should make ‘sustained inclusion efforts’ for ethnic minorities Craig Simpson"
Just on government bond yields, it is worth remembering that the UK is affected by the US, and US long term yields have risen from under 4%, to about 5%. So, yes, Starmer (and Reeves) have been shit, and their actions have led to higher bond yields.
But investors generally are taking the view that interest rates and inflation are rising worldwide.
But an implied 10% pre-tax return on UK government debt if you expect to live for 30 years is worth having…
I’m sitting next to a young married couple, the woman is pretty and bright, he is quite handsome and ridiculous. She is wincing at his inept and flailing humour
It is becoming painfully obvious to her that she has mistakenly married an idiot. Her anguish is palpable. I see her as Britain under Boris
What does one do? Should I stage an intervention?
You're offering yourself as a Starmer ?
Best not.
Starmer is, by all accounts, including people with direct knowledge - a successful ladies man. How can that be? He’s a humourless dolt of the first water
Yet he is - or was - handsome. He is living reproof of the idea women go for brains and wit
Good looking, stupid and rich beats ugly, smart and poor every time. People don't have sex for conversation, they get that from their friends or their second marriages. First marriages are about sex and having children
My brother had his son (my nephew) from his second marriage.
Like IDS' statement he was educated at the University of Perugia, Badenoch's statement she was educated at Stanford if not entirely true won't inspire confidence in her with Tory MPs.
However it is her party's poll rating that will be the biggest factor and her performance at PMQs, which like IDS is not magnificent.
She is shifting to the right, promising Milei style spending cuts, scrapping net zero by 2050 and withdrawal from the ECHR. If that still does not win back voters from Reform then expect her to be removed after likely poor local elections next Spring. Cleverly would likely be her replacement to try and hold to Sunak 2024 vote
She’s finished. She’s not going to get any better. She’ll probably get worse as she sinks below the waves and panics
Cleverly is a suicide note. It’s saying “yes we’re crap and irrelevant but please give us 13% of the vote so we can be like the Lib Dem’s”. Who votes for this centrist rubbish? No one. Or, about 13% of voters. Which will reduce you to about 30 MPs and that’s the end of you
Your only hope is Jenrick or Lam. Someone stridently right wing but with the heft of “a sensible Tory when it comes to economics”. That’s what may swing it your way from reform. People want populist hard right policies on migration and the rest but they don’t trust Reform on economics
There is still time for you to save yourselves. Undeservedly
I did read today that Jenrick's constituency of Newark is actually an anagram.
She is getting divorced and her new bloke is based in Brighton instead of up north.
I’ve a feeling that she’s done nothing wrong but the problem is you need to be whiter than white as a politician because any slight issue will be blown up in half stories
And especially a left wing politician. If you're one of those a bit of routine tax efficiency in your personal affairs can lead to accusations of 'hypocrisy'.
I don't think she's lax, I think there is a bit of the story (divorce) which both explains everything and the papers are avoiding talking about..
Except for paying council tax in both places as if it was her primary residence.
If it is divorce related you suck it up and pay both. May be 2k more - she can afford it
You do know the issue is £40,000 in stamp duty - the papers claim its due because its a second home, she didn't pay it because she claims it isn't...
She’s given a plausible explanation (she sold the Manchester home in order to buy the Brighton one)
Does he really write this stuff himself, or does he have a rogue Spad whose work he doesn’t check?
I picture him at home eating a reheated Asda curry under a 40 foot wide Union Jack, while also frowning with concern that the flag may be seen as “divisive”
Eating it while taking the knee. For old times sake. Simpler times.
Asda curry? Surely he is north london dinner party tofu-eating wokerati?
Surely we have hard evidence that he likes a beer and a curry.
I’m sitting next to a young married couple, the woman is pretty and bright, he is quite handsome and ridiculous. She is wincing at his inept and flailing humour
It is becoming painfully obvious to her that she has mistakenly married an idiot. Her anguish is palpable. I see her as Britain under Boris
What does one do? Should I stage an intervention?
You're offering yourself as a Starmer ?
Best not.
Starmer is, by all accounts, including people with direct knowledge - a successful ladies man. How can that be? He’s a humourless dolt of the first water
Yet he is - or was - handsome. He is living reproof of the idea women go for brains and wit
Good looking, stupid and rich beats ugly, smart and poor every time. People don't have sex for conversation, they get that from their friends or their second marriages. First marriages are about sex and having children
It’s really hard to believe such a catastrophe happened “by mistake”
I am now convinced we are heading for a quasi fascist government which will try to reverse this. And probably fail
And no, this does not please me. I wanted better for my kids 😢
Immigration helps to increase growth in terms of GDP. I can’t see why else they would have issued so many visas .
I think we forget just how tight the labour market was after COVID. Loads of people in service type jobs (bartenders etc) went into education or starting coding (or Onlyfans), EU migration dried up and the economy was genuinely in a spot of bother because of the lack of cheap labour on which it has depended for so long.
Now, I'd normally welcome such a change because it would help reduce in-work poverty and stimulate investment in capital. Basically, your Wetherspoons would have a machine pouring your pint rather than a human, because humans were really expensive. But it was an incredibly rapid change and there are some sectors like social care where people were simply unwilling to stump up the cash to incentivise people to work in that sector.
So all these minimum-wage sectors went squealing to the Treasury, and here we are: productivity growth remains stagnant, we continue to have vast inequality and in-work poverty, and people are rather upset because of housing and public service pressure from a gigantic influx of people in just a couple of years.
Empirically, factor substitutability is very low - most studies I've seen put it at 0.15 or 0.2. Most jobs cannot be substituted with machines yet, and that was even more the case in 2022.
What has caused our low investment isn't the abundance of labour, it's that the government has regulated and taxed returns on capital, increasingly, unpredictably and idiotically. If you view entrepreneurs as cash cows, rather than as the font of economic growth, of course they'll invest much less than they should. And if you adopt a nanny-knows-best attitude to investment, directing it to favoured regions or industries, rather than letting the market direct it to where returns are highest, of course you'll get lower overall returns and lower investment.
Higher, more productive investment will come only if this country drops its belief that the public sector can run industry and that the private sector is just there to finance an ever-growing state. It's extremely basic economics, as well as common sense.
No, our economy is not productive because the private sector didn't invest in productive capital , but bought property instead. We have gone from capitalism to landlordism.
The Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir addressed the government's plan, which includes capturing Gaza city, and stated: "You are heading toward military rule. Understand the implications." https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1962494975943324045
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Will Germany be prepared to continue to pay the price to keep France in eurozone?
Yes, if France falls out then the whole EU will fracture. The political cost of France being kicked out of the Eurozone is far, far higher than whatever the monetary liability Germany and other creditor nations will have to take on. There will be a price though, France is likely to have it's budgets passed in Berlin.
My gut feeling is that if France exits the Eurozone it will be because French people vote to leave it because they don't want German politicians making their budgets.
I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
Of course, and it's not a clinical trial.
I too retain some scepticism about these drugs, particularly what might be the effects of long term use. But they are undeniably and remarkably effective, thus far, in improving health outcomes for obese individuals. (As is, of course, losing weight by more natural means.)
What also remains to be seen is to what extent some of those health benefits might (if at all) outweigh those from conventional weight loss / alcohol abstinence, etc.
Or whether people can get off them again.
SSRIs were the wonder drug of 1990s with introduction of Prozac.
Now millions take them for just mild everyday blues and have side effects and struggle to get off them again.
Just loving how many rightwing newspaper columnist types spend every morning glued to the 30-year gilts market so they can tweet at some point in the day that this is the end of Britain.
It's not right wing newspapers, it's city analysts that have been sounding the alarm for about 6 months. The press have only just caught up.
No one's been listening and the government is useless. Its Liz Truss in slow motion. Our idiot premium is higher now than it was under Truss but because it's taken 6 months to get there rather than 6 days people who don't follow this haven't cottoned on as to just how bad it's become.
It’s really hard to believe such a catastrophe happened “by mistake”
I am now convinced we are heading for a quasi fascist government which will try to reverse this. And probably fail
And no, this does not please me. I wanted better for my kids 😢
Immigration helps to increase growth in terms of GDP. I can’t see why else they would have issued so many visas .
I think we forget just how tight the labour market was after COVID. Loads of people in service type jobs (bartenders etc) went into education or starting coding (or Onlyfans), EU migration dried up and the economy was genuinely in a spot of bother because of the lack of cheap labour on which it has depended for so long.
Now, I'd normally welcome such a change because it would help reduce in-work poverty and stimulate investment in capital. Basically, your Wetherspoons would have a machine pouring your pint rather than a human, because humans were really expensive. But it was an incredibly rapid change and there are some sectors like social care where people were simply unwilling to stump up the cash to incentivise people to work in that sector.
So all these minimum-wage sectors went squealing to the Treasury, and here we are: productivity growth remains stagnant, we continue to have vast inequality and in-work poverty, and people are rather upset because of housing and public service pressure from a gigantic influx of people in just a couple of years.
Empirically, factor substitutability is very low - most studies I've seen put it at 0.15 or 0.2. Most jobs cannot be substituted with machines yet, and that was even more the case in 2022.
What has caused our low investment isn't the abundance of labour, it's that the government has regulated and taxed returns on capital, increasingly, unpredictably and idiotically. If you view entrepreneurs as cash cows, rather than as the font of economic growth, of course they'll invest much less than they should. And if you adopt a nanny-knows-best attitude to investment, directing it to favoured regions or industries, rather than letting the market direct it to where returns are highest, of course you'll get lower overall returns and lower investment.
Higher, more productive investment will come only if this country drops its belief that the public sector can run industry and that the private sector is just there to finance an ever-growing state. It's extremely basic economics, as well as common sense.
No, our economy is not productive because the private sector didn't invest in productive capital , but bought property instead. We have gone from capitalism to landlordism.
No, our economy isn't productive because the public sector now accounts for almost 1 in 5 jobs and eats up 40% of GDP and use a big chunk of that to pay working age people to sit at home because they're a bit sad.
It seems that Kemi believes she was tapped up by Stanford with an overseas scholarship.
The obvious answer is that she was the mark in an attempted scam where the family stumps up some fees, then turns up to find no such thing. Nigeria does have form for this!
Sometimes our personal anecdotes become transfigured into untruth. I bet she believes it.
I remember being in a minor traffic accident in a friends car 20 years ago. I wasn't - but he was. Imagine how stupid I felt bringing that up and being corrected.
Yes, it may well be like Tony Blair watching Jackie Milburn from the terraces, or William Hagues pint at every pub when doing deliveries, a story that grew in the telling because they wanted it to be true. Like young Kemi.
Or the latest one; Sir Keir watching EastEnders in his ‘flat’ with a St George’s Flag on the fireplace
It seems that Kemi believes she was tapped up by Stanford with an overseas scholarship.
The obvious answer is that she was the mark in an attempted scam where the family stumps up some fees, then turns up to find no such thing. Nigeria does have form for this!
Sometimes our personal anecdotes become transfigured into untruth. I bet she believes it.
I remember being in a minor traffic accident in a friends car 20 years ago. I wasn't - but he was. Imagine how stupid I felt bringing that up and being corrected.
Yes, it may well be like Tony Blair watching Jackie Milburn from the terraces, or William Hagues pint at every pub when doing deliveries, a story that grew in the telling because they wanted it to be true. Like young Kemi.
In Tony Blair's case it was the story of his telling that grew in the telling - he never claimed to have watched Jackie Milburn from the terraces in the first place.
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
It seems that Kemi believes she was tapped up by Stanford with an overseas scholarship.
The obvious answer is that she was the mark in an attempted scam where the family stumps up some fees, then turns up to find no such thing. Nigeria does have form for this!
Sometimes our personal anecdotes become transfigured into untruth. I bet she believes it.
I remember being in a minor traffic accident in a friends car 20 years ago. I wasn't - but he was. Imagine how stupid I felt bringing that up and being corrected.
Yes, it may well be like Tony Blair watching Jackie Milburn from the terraces, or William Hagues pint at every pub when doing deliveries, a story that grew in the telling because they wanted it to be true. Like young Kemi.
Or the latest one; Sir Keir watching EastEnders in his ‘flat’ with a St George’s Flag on the fireplace
It seems that Kemi believes she was tapped up by Stanford with an overseas scholarship.
The obvious answer is that she was the mark in an attempted scam where the family stumps up some fees, then turns up to find no such thing. Nigeria does have form for this!
Sometimes our personal anecdotes become transfigured into untruth. I bet she believes it.
I remember being in a minor traffic accident in a friends car 20 years ago. I wasn't - but he was. Imagine how stupid I felt bringing that up and being corrected.
Yes, it may well be like Tony Blair watching Jackie Milburn from the terraces, or William Hagues pint at every pub when doing deliveries, a story that grew in the telling because they wanted it to be true. Like young Kemi.
In Tony Blair's case it was the story of his telling that grew in the telling - he never claimed to have watched Jackie Milburn from the terraces in the first place.
Yes, much like Mandlesons avocado dip from a fish and chip shop in Hartlepool...
"Overwhelmingly white’ countryside needs more halal food, report claims Academics argue that rural England should make ‘sustained inclusion efforts’ for ethnic minorities Craig Simpson"
Gotta say, I didn't know Walter Reed had a golf course...
All this speculation could be stopped if he got out and shouted at the press.
The longer this goes on the more likely it is that _something_ has happened. But what?
If Vance becomes El Presidente, what next?
Some vague focus and sanity?
Focus, yes. Sanity? Not convinced.
Is chaotic evil to lawful evil an upgrade?
(Possibly yes, a little bit. Lawful evil lets you survive by tiptoeing round the laws, whereas you can't do anything in a chaotic evil environment. But it's not much of an improvement.)
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
Gotta say, I didn't know Walter Reed had a golf course...
All this speculation could be stopped if he got out and shouted at the press.
The longer this goes on the more likely it is that _something_ has happened. But what?
If Vance becomes El Presidente, what next?
Some vague focus and sanity?
Focus, yes. Sanity? Not convinced.
Is chaotic evil to lawful evil an upgrade?
(Possibly yes, a little bit. Lawful evil lets you survive by tiptoeing round the laws, whereas you can't do anything in a chaotic evil environment. But it's not much of an improvement.)
No, its a downgrade.
Chaos is a good thing, its requirement for evolution which is how we improve.
When you're currently on evil, you need chaos all the more. Lawful evil is the worst of all combinations, like dumb and ambitious.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
It’s really hard to believe such a catastrophe happened “by mistake”
I am now convinced we are heading for a quasi fascist government which will try to reverse this. And probably fail
And no, this does not please me. I wanted better for my kids 😢
Immigration helps to increase growth in terms of GDP. I can’t see why else they would have issued so many visas .
I think we forget just how tight the labour market was after COVID. Loads of people in service type jobs (bartenders etc) went into education or starting coding (or Onlyfans), EU migration dried up and the economy was genuinely in a spot of bother because of the lack of cheap labour on which it has depended for so long.
Now, I'd normally welcome such a change because it would help reduce in-work poverty and stimulate investment in capital. Basically, your Wetherspoons would have a machine pouring your pint rather than a human, because humans were really expensive. But it was an incredibly rapid change and there are some sectors like social care where people were simply unwilling to stump up the cash to incentivise people to work in that sector.
So all these minimum-wage sectors went squealing to the Treasury, and here we are: productivity growth remains stagnant, we continue to have vast inequality and in-work poverty, and people are rather upset because of housing and public service pressure from a gigantic influx of people in just a couple of years.
Empirically, factor substitutability is very low - most studies I've seen put it at 0.15 or 0.2. Most jobs cannot be substituted with machines yet, and that was even more the case in 2022.
What has caused our low investment isn't the abundance of labour, it's that the government has regulated and taxed returns on capital, increasingly, unpredictably and idiotically. If you view entrepreneurs as cash cows, rather than as the font of economic growth, of course they'll invest much less than they should. And if you adopt a nanny-knows-best attitude to investment, directing it to favoured regions or industries, rather than letting the market direct it to where returns are highest, of course you'll get lower overall returns and lower investment.
Higher, more productive investment will come only if this country drops its belief that the public sector can run industry and that the private sector is just there to finance an ever-growing state. It's extremely basic economics, as well as common sense.
No, our economy is not productive because the private sector didn't invest in productive capital , but bought property instead. We have gone from capitalism to landlordism.
Our productivity is significantly below several large economies that have much higher tax rates on both corporate profits and investment returns, and also significantly behind several large economies that have lower taxes on those things.
Productivity and business investment is a conundrum but tax policy seems only partially to influence it if at all. The biggest factors seem to be funding costs, education levels and transport infrastructure but even there the stats are fuzzy.
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
I think time is running out and the market won't countenance waiting for growth to balance the books. They will force fiscal rectitude onto Britain in a short period.
Then the country can worry about how to generate growth in order to pay for the things they want.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
His key market is tofu wokerati with green ideals and of course a bit of money.
Everything he does on X seems designed to f*ck this group right off.
Tesla is facing the perfect storm of:
1. An ageing lineup 2. Serious competition, from both BYD and European carmakers 3. A CEO who seems determined to trash his firm's brand
I would not like to be a Tesla shareholder.
We’re seeing a lot more large non-Tesla EVs on the roads now and that must be helping to normalise the idea that no longer is the large luxury EV synonymous with Tesla, but is simply a category. A bit like Hoovers, or more recently the bagless versions pioneered by Dyson.
To me it’s not about Tesla vs BYD or MG. It’s the trad car manufacturers now getting properly into the category. On a short drive these days I’m likely to pass a Polestar 2 or 3, a Volvo EX40, a Hyundai Ioniq 5, a Kia EV6 or EV9, a Skoda Enyaq, a Mercedes EQ range and so on. There will be Teslas too, but they no longer dominate.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
I think time is running out and the market won't countenance waiting for growth to balance the books. They will force fiscal rectitude onto Britain in a short period.
Then the country can worry about how to generate growth in order to pay for the things they want.
The main thing bond traders are jumpy about is growth. That’s why the NI rise in the last budget went down so badly. The second is inflation. And FX (which is a product of expectations on those 2).
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Would France - at almost any cost - be bailed out by the Eurozone/ECB? I can't see the EU letting them go under whether it breaks any of their sacrosanct rules or not.
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
Yes of course. This is why Britain is first in the firing line
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
Any Farage budget is four years away. I don't think we'll make it to the next election without a crisis in the bond market first.
Gotta say, I didn't know Walter Reed had a golf course...
All this speculation could be stopped if he got out and shouted at the press.
The longer this goes on the more likely it is that _something_ has happened. But what?
If Vance becomes El Presidente, what next?
Some vague focus and sanity?
Focus, yes. Sanity? Not convinced.
I honestly think Vance remains an engima.
What does he really believe?
What would he actually do if given the presidency?
The guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy and the guy who now spends his days licking Trump's toes to pleasure him just seem like two different people.
Whatever else he may be he is not a moron nor a stupid, deliberately know-nothing in the way Trump is.
But could be hold a governing coalition together?
I have no idea if the MAGA base of support transfers to Vance, and if he can keep any moderate Republicans left in line
My guess would be not, that Trump just has this unique appeal to these voters, and a unique ability to intimidate other Republicans. But I could be wrong.
There's a huge focus on Reeves and Starmer over the 10 year and so on gilt yields but maybe some of this is the market factoring in what a shit show the next it seems likely government will be under Farage in 2029?
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
Any Farage budget is four years away. I don't think we'll make it to the next election without a crisis in the bond market first.
Only tangentially related - but I came across a copy of this recently :
Adapted from Paul Thompson's celebrated play for the National Youth Theatre, "By Common Consent" is set in an unnamed country sometime in the future where a League of Youth has been established to restore moral and political order. The Boys of City Zone 8 are in disgrace when four of their members desert to join the 'terrorists' in the North."
I'm fond of the 70s drama's like this. "1990", "The Guardians" etc.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
This is the price of running a trade deficit for nearly 30 years. To balance the books we sell assets to the same value as the deficit every year. If you want this to stop we need to reduce consumption, increase investment, probably devalue and export more. It really is as simple as that but the electorate and our political class would rather put their fingers in their ears and then lament the inevitable consequences.
Don't worry! We're going to elect a bunch of people who promise even more sweeties, for even less cost.
It seems that Kemi believes she was tapped up by Stanford with an overseas scholarship.
The obvious answer is that she was the mark in an attempted scam where the family stumps up some fees, then turns up to find no such thing. Nigeria does have form for this!
Sometimes our personal anecdotes become transfigured into untruth. I bet she believes it.
I remember being in a minor traffic accident in a friends car 20 years ago. I wasn't - but he was. Imagine how stupid I felt bringing that up and being corrected.
Yes, it may well be like Tony Blair watching Jackie Milburn from the terraces, or William Hagues pint at every pub when doing deliveries, a story that grew in the telling because they wanted it to be true. Like young Kemi.
In Tony Blair's case it was the story of his telling that grew in the telling - he never claimed to have watched Jackie Milburn from the terraces in the first place.
Yes, much like Mandlesons avocado dip from a fish and chip shop in Hartlepool...
I think you'll find that his "avocado dip" was a euphemism.
Gotta say, I didn't know Walter Reed had a golf course...
All this speculation could be stopped if he got out and shouted at the press.
The longer this goes on the more likely it is that _something_ has happened. But what?
If Vance becomes El Presidente, what next?
Some vague focus and sanity?
Focus, yes. Sanity? Not convinced.
I honestly think Vance remains an engima.
What does he really believe?
What would he actually do if given the presidency?
The guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy and the guy who now spends his days licking Trump's toes to pleasure him just seem like two different people.
Whatever else he may be he is not a moron nor a stupid, deliberately know-nothing in the way Trump is.
But could be hold a governing coalition together?
I have no idea if the MAGA base of support transfers to Vance, and if he can keep any moderate Republicans left in line
My guess would be not, that Trump just has this unique appeal to these voters, and a unique ability to intimidate other Republicans. But I could be wrong.
When variious wannabee Trump's try to ape his style it often comes across as inauthentic, it's hard to see all of the base holding together when someone other than Trump himself tries to do the same things, but then they have surprised before.
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
Cuts are not the problem. It's lack of growth and the systematic selling of any national assets not nailed down so that profits and wealth flow abroad rather than circulating round the British economy. Everything from utilities to football clubs sends money out of the country.
I think time is running out and the market won't countenance waiting for growth to balance the books. They will force fiscal rectitude onto Britain in a short period.
Then the country can worry about how to generate growth in order to pay for the things they want.
The main thing bond traders are jumpy about is growth. That’s why the NI rise in the last budget went down so badly. The second is inflation. And FX (which is a product of expectations on those 2).
Bond Traders are a group of people and so, like any group of people, they are prone to collective panics.
We are one badly conceived or delivered budget away from such a collective panic among bond traders about the ability of Britain to service its debts. The failure of the government to hold the line on cutting winter fuel allowance, or disability benefit, undermines confidence that the government is able to do what is necessary to ensure that Britain can pay its way.
Forget the effect of the budget on opinion polls. Reeves has to regain the confidence of the bond market, and she has to convince Labour backbenchers that it's necessary to do so.
Obviously convincing the public is important too, but it doesn't matter so much if either of the other two are failed.
It's a big ask. And she already failed the first time when the task was easier.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
His key market is tofu wokerati with green ideals and of course a bit of money.
Everything he does on X seems designed to f*ck this group right off.
Tesla is facing the perfect storm of:
1. An ageing lineup 2. Serious competition, from both BYD and European carmakers 3. A CEO who seems determined to trash his firm's brand
I would not like to be a Tesla shareholder.
The superchargers are good though, even if they do hide them. Work seamlessly from the app and much cheaper than the competition. Just a pity the coverage is so patchy.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
His key market is tofu wokerati with green ideals and of course a bit of money.
Everything he does on X seems designed to f*ck this group right off.
Tesla is facing the perfect storm of:
1. An ageing lineup 2. Serious competition, from both BYD and European carmakers 3. A CEO who seems determined to trash his firm's brand
I would not like to be a Tesla shareholder.
The superchargers are good though, even if they do hide them. Work seamlessly from the app and much cheaper than the competition. Just a pity the coverage is so patchy.
Yep: on a recent trip down from Napa back to LA, I made two brief stops - one was at a Tesla Supercharger and one at a Rivian equivalent. Both were great.
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
His key market is tofu wokerati with green ideals and of course a bit of money.
Everything he does on X seems designed to f*ck this group right off.
Tesla is facing the perfect storm of:
1. An ageing lineup 2. Serious competition, from both BYD and European carmakers 3. A CEO who seems determined to trash his firm's brand
I would not like to be a Tesla shareholder.
We’re seeing a lot more large non-Tesla EVs on the roads now and that must be helping to normalise the idea that no longer is the large luxury EV synonymous with Tesla, but is simply a category. A bit like Hoovers, or more recently the bagless versions pioneered by Dyson.
To me it’s not about Tesla vs BYD or MG. It’s the trad car manufacturers now getting properly into the category. On a short drive these days I’m likely to pass a Polestar 2 or 3, a Volvo EX40, a Hyundai Ioniq 5, a Kia EV6 or EV9, a Skoda Enyaq, a Mercedes EQ range and so on. There will be Teslas too, but they no longer dominate.
The Ioniq 5 is a great car. If I were moving to the UK, and buying an EV, that's the one I would buy.
I know there's a few lovers of the ancients on here.
Be ready people...
The Odyssey (2026 film)
The Odyssey is an upcoming epic action fantasy film written and directed by Christopher Nolan.
Filming took place from February to August 2025 throughout various regions worldwide, including Morocco, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Iceland, and Western Sahara. With an estimated production budget of $250 million, it is poised to be the most expensive film of Nolan's career and the first blockbuster to be shot entirely using 70 mm IMAX film cameras.
The Odyssey is scheduled to be theatrically released in the United States on July 17, 2026.
I know there's a few lovers of the ancients on here.
Be ready people...
The Odyssey (2026 film)
The Odyssey is an upcoming epic action fantasy film written and directed by Christopher Nolan.
Filming took place from February to August 2025 throughout various regions worldwide, including Morocco, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Iceland, and Western Sahara. With an estimated production budget of $250 million, it is poised to be the most expensive film of Nolan's career and the first blockbuster to be shot entirely using 70 mm IMAX film cameras.
The Odyssey is scheduled to be theatrically released in the United States on July 17, 2026.
I know there's a few lovers of the ancients on here.
Be ready people...
The Odyssey (2026 film)
The Odyssey is an upcoming epic action fantasy film written and directed by Christopher Nolan.
Filming took place from February to August 2025 throughout various regions worldwide, including Morocco, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Iceland, and Western Sahara. With an estimated production budget of $250 million, it is poised to be the most expensive film of Nolan's career and the first blockbuster to be shot entirely using 70 mm IMAX film cameras.
The Odyssey is scheduled to be theatrically released in the United States on July 17, 2026.
I know there's a few lovers of the ancients on here.
Be ready people...
The Odyssey (2026 film)
The Odyssey is an upcoming epic action fantasy film written and directed by Christopher Nolan.
Filming took place from February to August 2025 throughout various regions worldwide, including Morocco, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Iceland, and Western Sahara. With an estimated production budget of $250 million, it is poised to be the most expensive film of Nolan's career and the first blockbuster to be shot entirely using 70 mm IMAX film cameras.
The Odyssey is scheduled to be theatrically released in the United States on July 17, 2026.
I keep seeing car parks with large numbers of electric chargers and only one or two of them being used.
Because everyone is charging at home so it's not worth paying the extra to do it in a car park.
You only really need 3 types of charger: 1) Off your house 2) on-street in areas with flats or terraces 3) rapid chargers at the House of Bruar. The Morrisons car park ones seem redundant to me.
I keep seeing car parks with large numbers of electric chargers and only one or two of them being used.
Because everyone is charging at home so it's not worth paying the extra to do it in a car park.
You only really need 3 types of charger: 1) Off your house 2) on-street in areas with flats or terraces 3) rapid chargers at the House of Bruar. The Morrisons car park ones seem redundant to me.
This is spot on: they aren't quick enough to be useful, given you won't be at Morrison's more than 40 minutes. What's the use of adding 3KWh to your battery?
Comments
The EU could afford to let a small peripheral member like Greece go bust and maybe even grexit. France is the most important EU member alongside Germany. If France falls then the euro and the EU are mortally endangered. Can’t happen. Hence the lower interest rate France pays for debt
The UK does not have that safety net
Which might leave some more gambling types eyeing the UK.
The government also needs to be a bit cuter about favouring British rather than American companies. Look at the number of tech contracts handed over to Microsoft, AWS, Oracle or Palantir, and contrast with the way America invokes national security so that not even the dog warden can host a website overseas, or the way foreign wealth funds were blocked from buying ports. Look at the billions of dollars of subsidies and pump-priming for American firms, whereas we cut investment.
We do need to find some way of retaining British companies, whether the answer lies in the tax system, venture capital, pensions or what.
GLP-1 receptor agonists will transform mental health over the next five years:
» Suicide: 58% reduction
» Depression: 37% reduction
» Substance use disorder: 42% reduction
n=174,000 obese adults who initiated GLP-1RAs in a target trial emulation published yesterday.
https://x.com/therealRYC/status/1962213801635569738
(Doesn't let senior politicians off the hook. Even if they are only checking the person who is checking the person who is checking the person who is tweeting, they need to be making sure that there is quality all along the chain, and that clearly isn't happening. I'll let him off not having the words himself, but in that case he needs to find someone with the words.)
Allow us to hope
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/aug/18/rachel-reeves-stamp-duty-property-tax-council-tax?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
I still drink too much alcohol by the standards of most. But it’s down ~40%. Or more
I too retain some scepticism about these drugs, particularly what might be the effects of long term use.
But they are undeniably and remarkably effective, thus far, in improving health outcomes for obese individuals.
(As is, of course, losing weight by more natural means.)
What also remains to be seen is to what extent some of those health benefits might (if at all) outweigh those from conventional weight loss / alcohol abstinence, etc.
Academics argue that rural England should make ‘sustained inclusion efforts’ for ethnic minorities
Craig Simpson"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/01/overwhelmingly-white-countryside-halal-food-report-claims
Another drug which might bring about very large health improvements, is the new blood pressure medicine from AZN.
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2025/baxdrostat-demonstrated-statistically-significant-clinically-meaningful-reduction-sbp-patients-hard-control-hypertension-baxhtn-phase-iii-trial.html
Anti-hypertensives are one of the most frequently prescribed drugs. This might be a significant advance.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1962604670347603998
https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1962494975943324045
Strasbourg is spooked by the idea of US-style protections for free speech
Andrew Tettenborn"
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-court-that-stops-us-speaking-our-mind
My gut feeling is that if France exits the Eurozone it will be because French people vote to leave it because they don't want German politicians making their budgets.
SSRIs were the wonder drug of 1990s with introduction of Prozac.
Now millions take them for just mild everyday blues and have side effects and struggle to get off them again.
No one's been listening and the government is useless. Its Liz Truss in slow motion. Our idiot premium is higher now than it was under Truss but because it's taken 6 months to get there rather than 6 days people who don't follow this haven't cottoned on as to just how bad it's become.
'cos controlling inflation 'aint gonna be anywhere near Nigel's desk when there's a £20b deportation army and nationalisation of water and railways plus raising income tax threshold to £20k all to be funded.
And of course Mad Mickey the Metal Trader who Nigel has known since school days and is a good laugh in the pub could well become CoE under his plan to put non-MPs into Cabinet at senior levels.
The longer this goes on the more likely it is that _something_ has happened. But what?
And if Vance becomes El Presidente, what next?
What does he really believe?
What would he actually do if given the presidency?
The guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy and the guy who now spends his days licking Trump's toes to pleasure him just seem like two different people.
Whatever else he may be he is not a moron nor a stupid, deliberately know-nothing in the way Trump is.
(Possibly yes, a little bit. Lawful evil lets you survive by tiptoeing round the laws, whereas you can't do anything in a chaotic evil environment. But it's not much of an improvement.)
Just wait for Model Y@Reuters
Tesla's sales continued to struggle in key European markets in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines as the electric vehicle maker faced growing competition and consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1962624001400082837
Everything he does on X seems designed to f*ck this group right off.
1. An ageing lineup
2. Serious competition, from both BYD and European carmakers
3. A CEO who seems determined to trash his firm's brand
I would not like to be a Tesla shareholder.
Chaos is a good thing, its requirement for evolution which is how we improve.
When you're currently on evil, you need chaos all the more. Lawful evil is the worst of all combinations, like dumb and ambitious.
Productivity and business investment is a conundrum but tax policy seems only partially to influence it if at all. The biggest factors seem to be funding costs, education levels and transport infrastructure but even there the stats are fuzzy.
Then the country can worry about how to generate growth in order to pay for the things they want.
To me it’s not about Tesla vs BYD or MG. It’s the trad car manufacturers now getting properly into the category. On a short drive these days I’m likely to pass a Polestar 2 or 3, a Volvo EX40, a Hyundai Ioniq 5, a Kia EV6 or EV9, a Skoda Enyaq, a Mercedes EQ range and so on. There will be Teslas too, but they no longer dominate.
I have no idea if the MAGA base of support transfers to Vance, and if he can keep any moderate Republicans left in line
My guess would be not, that Trump just has this unique appeal to these voters, and a unique ability to intimidate other Republicans. But I could be wrong.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0675204/
"Play for Today: By Common Consent (1975)
Adapted from Paul Thompson's celebrated play for the National Youth Theatre, "By Common Consent" is set in an unnamed country sometime in the future where a League of Youth has been established to restore moral and political order. The Boys of City Zone 8 are in disgrace when four of their members desert to join the 'terrorists' in the North."
I'm fond of the 70s drama's like this. "1990", "The Guardians" etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Society#Establishment
We are one badly conceived or delivered budget away from such a collective panic among bond traders about the ability of Britain to service its debts. The failure of the government to hold the line on cutting winter fuel allowance, or disability benefit, undermines confidence that the government is able to do what is necessary to ensure that Britain can pay its way.
Forget the effect of the budget on opinion polls. Reeves has to regain the confidence of the bond market, and she has to convince Labour backbenchers that it's necessary to do so.
Obviously convincing the public is important too, but it doesn't matter so much if either of the other two are failed.
It's a big ask. And she already failed the first time when the task was easier.
Be ready people...
The Odyssey (2026 film)
The Odyssey is an upcoming epic action fantasy film written and directed by Christopher Nolan.
Filming took place from February to August 2025 throughout various regions worldwide, including Morocco, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Iceland, and Western Sahara. With an estimated production budget of $250 million, it is poised to be the most expensive film of Nolan's career and the first blockbuster to be shot entirely using 70 mm IMAX film cameras.
The Odyssey is scheduled to be theatrically released in the United States on July 17, 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odyssey_(2026_film)
You only really need 3 types of charger: 1) Off your house 2) on-street in areas with flats or terraces 3) rapid chargers at the House of Bruar. The Morrisons car park ones seem redundant to me.