politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson’s 33-1 Sadiq for Mayor tip is looking better
Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor when the price was 33/1. Henry’s record on Labour matters is usually pretty good and I was amongst many who got on at that price.
Comments
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Ectoplasm?0
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A distant second...0
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Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.0 -
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31052010
Red on Red incoming as Labour's one card for the GE is torn to shreds by their own members! Now that would be an interesting thread for an election that's actually imminent.0 -
Maybe a thread about how divided parties lose elections? Or is that only ever applicable when it is the Tories and the subject is Europe?felix said:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31052010
Red on Red incoming as Labour's one card for the GE is torn to shreds by their own members! Now that would be an interesting thread for an election that's actually imminent.
Labour seem intent on playing poker by throwing away a pair of aces and sitting with eight high.
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The 33/1 tip from Henry will go down as one of pb's greatest if Sadiq goes on to take this. I agree with Mike that the 6/1 still looks very tasty.
He had a sticky moment last year when Paul Staines hounded him over alleged mobile phone use at the wheel but all that seems to have done is boost his public profile. http://order-order.com/2014/11/03/khan-crash-sadiqs-rush-hour-horror-cuts-into-bus-lane-ahead-of-organ-transport-ambulance-safety-campaigners-slam-sadiq-using-phone-at-wheel/
One fly in the ointment is that he isn't in an absolutely rock solid seat, by any means. He would have to resign as MP anyway, but losing his seat in the meantime wouldn't look good. Surbiton said Tooting is a seat which will go more Labour. This has not been the trend for the last three elections. I know the constituency well and it has changed massively in recent years. The rising middle class profile of the north of the constituency, and even big changes in Tooting itself mean it's now very much a marginal seat (it would go on a 2.5% swing). However, on balance I expect Sadiq's higher profile and own background to carry him through. He is very popular with many constituents. If he stands for mayor this is one seat that could well go Conservative at that point.
Sadiq looks a good bet for selection and mayor even now at those odds.0 -
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.0 -
Khan might be Labour leader by 20160
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The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.0 -
I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.0
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Electoral Calculus's projection hasn't been updated since December:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html0 -
It's was a good trading tip as you can lay off now on Betfair for 8s. He won't win - individual voter registration won't help either.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
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http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.0 -
Ov Maj, Betfair:
NOM 1.29 / 1.3
Con 6.8 / 7
Lab 11.5 /12.5
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.1014164900 -
Agreed, David.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.0 -
Who's going to win then, TG?TGOHF said:
It's was a good trading tip as you can lay off now on Betfair for 8s. He won't win - individual voter registration won't help either.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
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The Russian "volunteers" do seem to have been able to bring heavy equipment with them. I think they are "volunteers" in the sense that the German and Italian forces in the Spanish Civil War were "volunteers".FalseFlag said:http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.0 -
I really don't have a feel for what the effect of individual voter registration will be in the election. On the one hand there are probably thousands who are no longer on the register who should be. On the other there may be thousands who are not on the register who should not have been, many not even resident in the UK.TGOHF said:
It's was a good trading tip as you can lay off now on Betfair for 8s. He won't win - individual voter registration won't help either.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
The effect on local elections may be significant but are there any seats where these combined effects might make a difference ?0 -
You didn't like the Olympics?!Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.0 -
Mr Fox I am sure that tanks grow on very similar trees to money.foxinsoxuk said:
The Russian "volunteers" do seem to have been able to bring heavy equipment with them. I think they are "volunteers" in the sense that the German and Italian forces in the Spanish Civil War were "volunteers".FalseFlag said:http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.0 -
Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.0 -
"Young British jihadis are pornography-obsessed inadequates who only turn to radical Islam when they fail to “make it with girls”, Boris Johnson has claimed."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11378700/Boris-Johnson-Porn-obsessed-Isil-jihadis-are-literally-wers.html0 -
What was wrong with what she did? The Olympics were a triumph for this country weren't they?Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
Sorry to break this cozy Labour shoe-in but I'll add just one note of caution to this. As we have seen, the London mayoral voting does not follow on the same party lines as other elections. Personality, independence and even an element of the maverick seem to attract support (both Boris and Ken are cases in point).Peter_the_Punter said:
Agreed, David.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.
Whilst no-one significant along the above lines may yet have declared, there is still time for that to happen. I expect everyone is waiting to get past May 7th first.0 -
Who is the shy Boris-lite hiding in the Tory ranks that you think may declare?audreyanne said:
What was wrong with what she did? The Olympics were a triumph for this country weren't they?Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
Sorry to break this cozy Labour shoe-in but I'll add just one note of caution to this. As we have seen, the London mayoral voting does not follow on the same party lines as other elections. Personality, independence and even an element of the maverick seem to attract support (both Boris and Ken are cases in point).Peter_the_Punter said:
Agreed, David.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.
Whilst no-one significant along the above lines may yet have declared, there is still time for that to happen. I expect everyone is waiting to get past May 7th first.
One of the reasons Ken won so comfortably at first was that the Tories put up uninspiring candidates against him. Wasn't it Norris one time?0 -
I agree on the Olympics but the Tories needed someone as exceptional as Boris to win what is a Labour City. I don't see anyone in the Tory party who is even close to his ability to win outside party lines. Boris reaches parts of the electorate no other tory can get near.audreyanne said:
What was wrong with what she did? The Olympics were a triumph for this country weren't they?Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
Sorry to break this cozy Labour shoe-in but I'll add just one note of caution to this. As we have seen, the London mayoral voting does not follow on the same party lines as other elections. Personality, independence and even an element of the maverick seem to attract support (both Boris and Ken are cases in point).Peter_the_Punter said:
Agreed, David.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.
Whilst no-one significant along the above lines may yet have declared, there is still time for that to happen. I expect everyone is waiting to get past May 7th first.
An independent maverick type such as a Lord Sugar is always a possibility but building the kind of organisation required from scratch would be seriously expensive and a big ask. Maybe "nailed on" was going too far but the next Mayor being Labour is a very high probability.0 -
There's no evidence that Russia has provided any tanks and no good reason to believe it has. Enjoy this comprehensive report on the armaments being used in the Ukrainian civil war:foxinsoxuk said:
The Russian "volunteers" do seem to have been able to bring heavy equipment with them. I think they are "volunteers" in the sense that the German and Italian forces in the Spanish Civil War were "volunteers".FalseFlag said:http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.
http://www.armamentresearch.com/ares-research-report-no-3-raising-red-flags-an-examination-of-arms-munitions-in-the-ongoing-conflict-in-ukraine-2014/
An excerpt from the conclusion:
ARES has assessed that it is very likely that pro-Russian separatist forces have received some level of support from one or more external parties, however the level of state complicity in such activity remains unclear. Despite the presence of arms, munitions, and armoured vehicles designed, produced, and allegedly even sourced from Russia, there remains no direct evidence of Russian government complicity in the trafficking of arms into the area (Reuters, 2014c). The majority of arms and munitions documented in service with separatist forces have evidently been appropriated from the Ukrainian security forces and their installations within Ukraine.0 -
It would be surprising if it were otherwise! Pakistan leads the world in porno-googling, and look at the terms used.AndyJS said:"Young British jihadis are pornography-obsessed inadequates who only turn to radical Islam when they fail to “make it with girls”, Boris Johnson has claimed."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11378700/Boris-Johnson-Porn-obsessed-Isil-jihadis-are-literally-wers.html
As ever, the most intolerent cultures are the most in denial!
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/07/12/data-shows-pakistan-googling-pornographic-material/0 -
Yeah. And the Luftwaffe volunteers borrowed a few Heinkel's when at Guernica.FalseFlag said:
There's no evidence that Russia has provided any tanks and no good reason to believe it has. Enjoy this comprehensive report on the armaments being used in the Ukrainian civil war:foxinsoxuk said:
The Russian "volunteers" do seem to have been able to bring heavy equipment with them. I think they are "volunteers" in the sense that the German and Italian forces in the Spanish Civil War were "volunteers".FalseFlag said:http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.
http://www.armamentresearch.com/ares-research-report-no-3-raising-red-flags-an-examination-of-arms-munitions-in-the-ongoing-conflict-in-ukraine-2014/
An excerpt from the conclusion:
ARES has assessed that it is very likely that pro-Russian separatist forces have received some level of support from one or more external parties, however the level of state complicity in such activity remains unclear. Despite the presence of arms, munitions, and armoured vehicles designed, produced, and allegedly even sourced from Russia, there remains no direct evidence of Russian government complicity in the trafficking of arms into the area (Reuters, 2014c). The majority of arms and munitions documented in service with separatist forces have evidently been appropriated from the Ukrainian security forces and their installations within Ukraine.
The Russians have form in Crimea and elsewhere. I am not completely unsympathetic to the Donbas separatists but it is a denial of truth to pretend that they are not getting fairly active help from the Russian military.0 -
The Lord Voldemort PB Betfair update...
Tory charge 1.88/1.89
Red retreat 2.16/2.180 -
I often disagree with Henry but I think he's right here. One factor is that Sadiq is pro-mansion tax to help fund NHS improvements, which seems reasonable to most Labour members, including most of those who will be affected personally, despite some high-profile exceptions. The people who have been grumbling about it are seen as attacking Labour policy from the right, which is really not the way to win a Labour primary.0
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Scrapheap_as_was said:
The Lord Voldemort PB Betfair update...
Tory charge 1.88/1.89
Red retreat 2.16/2.18
Lab Majority goes out, Conservative majority hasn't come inAndyJS said:Ov Maj, Betfair:
NOM 1.29 / 1.3
Con 6.8 / 7
Lab 11.5 /12.5
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116499091
Provides the missing piece of the jigsaw.
Massacre in Scotland.0 -
That's the slight danger with punting too much money on a Labour candidate as shoe-in, in my humble opinion.DavidL said:
An independent maverick type such as a Lord Sugar is always a possibilityaudreyanne said:
What was wrong with what she did? The Olympics were a triumph for this country weren't they?Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
Sorry to break this cozy Labour shoe-in but I'll add just one note of caution to this. As we have seen, the London mayoral voting does not follow on the same party lines as other elections. Personality, independence and even an element of the maverick seem to attract support (both Boris and Ken are cases in point).Peter_the_Punter said:
Agreed, David.DavidL said:I am not saying this is not a good bet and I am certainly not saying it was not a great bet when Henry recommended it. It is just that I have always found Kahn superficial and frankly not too bright. But you don't have to be good, you only have to be better than your competition and he may well be. Without the Boris factor a Labour win in London looks nailed on, especially if Ed screws up the election and Labour remains in opposition. So the 6/1 for mayor looks the better bet.
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.
Whilst no-one significant along the above lines may yet have declared, there is still time for that to happen. I expect everyone is waiting to get past May 7th first.
I agree, I can't at the moment see any obvious reach-out-and-touch-me Tory in the wings. But an independent with money and clout is another matter.
At the risk of provoking a response from Socrates, Sadiq may not be everyone's cup of tea although I personally think he's a marvellous example of a moderate Muslim, and all power to him for voting for gay marriage for which he received death threats.0 -
Except that's not Labour policy.NickPalmer said:I often disagree with Henry but I think he's right here. One factor is that Sadiq is pro-mansion tax to help fund NHS improvements
Ed said only this week that the Mansion Tax was a deficit reduction measure0 -
A sure-fire vote winner in London …NickPalmer said:I often disagree with Henry but I think he's right here. One factor is that Sadiq is pro-mansion tax to help fund NHS improvements,
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Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.0 -
Help stamp out 'shoe ins' it's 'shoo'.0
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Pulpstar "Lab Majority goes out, Conservative majority hasn't come in"
All down to the next polls.
Presumably this weekend should see another rash with it being end of month as well? I'm still waiting for polling following a week's fieldwork into Feb before making most of my betting moves. Think once we get to 7th Feb onwards and 3 months to go we'll start to see the tree shaking down.0 -
In Labour economics and their multiplier effect theory, you can always spend the same £ in as many vote 'buying' ways as you like. @magicmoneytreeScott_P said:
Except that's not Labour policy.NickPalmer said:I often disagree with Henry but I think he's right here. One factor is that Sadiq is pro-mansion tax to help fund NHS improvements
Ed said only this week that the Mansion Tax was a deficit reduction measure0 -
Casino -
I see you're up early this moerning, as am I duly refreshed after a good night's sleep.
Last night you offered me the following bet on the composition of the next Government post the May GE :
"I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.
If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election."
For the avoidance of doubt, the bet is to relate only to a formal coalition between the Conservative and LibDem parties, i.e. not involving ant other parties. I'm not sure precisely when the bet is deemed to be settled - perhaps, if you agree, when a coalition cabinet is first officially announced or not as the case may be. Settlement within 3 working days thereof by electronic bank transfer, involving either you paying me £20 or I paying you £80 as described above.
I'm happy to proceed on this basis, please confirm today that you are too.
As two old-timers on PB.com. I am happy to rely on one or other of us settling this bet in an honourable and timely fashion, but should you wish to record this arrangement formally with PtP, then I'm equally happy to follow this procedure, again let me know and may the best man win!0 -
Larry Elliott in the Guardian:
" But the losses have not been distributed equally. Women have done less poorly than men, primarily because they are more disproportionately likely to work in the public sector, where real earnings have fallen by less than in the private sector. Weekly earnings for a woman smack in the middle of the income distribution (the median) fell by 2.8% between 2008 and 2014; for the equivalent man they fell by 9%. "
I suspect if earnings for women had fallen more than those of men we would have endless condemnation of it from politicians and pressure groups.
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As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
Mrs JackW has plenty of "shoe ins" - Her wardrobes are full of them.logical_song said:Help stamp out 'shoe ins' it's 'shoo'.
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Yeah greatMorris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
Great tip but as someone who would have to suffer his racist policies I really hope he doesn't get anywhere near it and the tories win with Karren Brady0 -
Presumably, he thinks the policy would be popular with the voters he's targeting.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
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Mr. Foxinsox, glad to hear it. Quotas are discriminatory to one group and patronising to the other.
Mr. F, I'm sure he won't need to campaign too hard to secure the votes of Tower Hamlets.0 -
Thank goodness it's friday. Morning all.0
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@patrickwintour: "It’s been another week of turmoil for the Labour leader" from the BBC radio 4 Today running order.0
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I thought public sector workers had suffered terribly (compared to the private sector) over the past six years.another_richard said:Larry Elliott in the Guardian:
" But the losses have not been distributed equally. Women have done less poorly than men, primarily because they are more disproportionately likely to work in the public sector, where real earnings have fallen by less than in the private sector. Weekly earnings for a woman smack in the middle of the income distribution (the median) fell by 2.8% between 2008 and 2014; for the equivalent man they fell by 9%. "
I suspect if earnings for women had fallen more than those of men we would have endless condemnation of it from politicians and pressure groups.
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But why? Are Asian doctors not good enough? Why not let things go their way?foxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.
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Not the man you want in charge of london when the Islamic terror threat is high
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/06/sadiq-khan-has-unwittingly-highlighted-the-problem-of-islamic-extremism/
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SeanF Private sector pay was hit hard by the crash, but is now recovering, public sector pay was only restrained post 2010 and is still likely to be frozen for a few more years. While the private sector suffered job losses post 2008 it is now creating jobs while the public sector will be shedding them on a net basis for a few more years0
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For me, the only good argument for looking into such things is the idea that, if your recruitment is highly distorted to one demographic, you might be missing good candidates from the under-represented demographic. For example, it's been shown in the US that identical CVs with white names over black names tend to pass through CV screens more successfully. If you find such a bias in your recruiting systems, it might make sense to correct for it.Luckyguy1983 said:
But why? Are Asian doctors not good enough? Why not let things go their way?foxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
This is news? :-)Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: "It’s been another week of turmoil for the Labour leader" from the BBC radio 4 Today running order.
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Cheers for that link, Mr. Isam. Douglas Murray's well worth listening to.0
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Just employ the bests doctors regardless of racefoxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
Only about 20-25% of medical students are white men. Time for positive discrimination?0
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If there's a Labour lead of 1 or worse for them in Sunday's YouGov poll then the average for January by my calculation will be a tie between Lab and Con.
The recent averages are as follows:
2014
December -1
November -1
October -2
September -4
August -3
July -3
June -4
May -3
April -4
March -4
February -6
January -6
The trend is your friend
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ma6e52kjx7/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-280115.pdf0 -
I suspect any suffering taking place among public sector workers has been felt among the low paid and not among the fatcats.Sean_F said:
I thought public sector workers had suffered terribly (compared to the private sector) over the past six years.another_richard said:Larry Elliott in the Guardian:
" But the losses have not been distributed equally. Women have done less poorly than men, primarily because they are more disproportionately likely to work in the public sector, where real earnings have fallen by less than in the private sector. Weekly earnings for a woman smack in the middle of the income distribution (the median) fell by 2.8% between 2008 and 2014; for the equivalent man they fell by 9%. "
I suspect if earnings for women had fallen more than those of men we would have endless condemnation of it from politicians and pressure groups.
After all you have to pay high wages to get top quality people such Meredydd Hughes, Shaun Wright and Joyce Thacker.
Not to mention giving them OBEs, CBEs etc.
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That suggestion shows as little understanding of human nature as any Marxist theory, Unfortunately.isam said:
Just employ the bests doctors regardless of racefoxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
As I noted the other day, the Mansion Tax is also allocated to introducing a new 10p low tax rate for low earners.Scrapheap_as_was said:
In Labour economics and their multiplier effect theory, you can always spend the same £ in as many vote 'buying' ways as you like. @magicmoneytreeScott_P said:
Except that's not Labour policy.NickPalmer said:I often disagree with Henry but I think he's right here. One factor is that Sadiq is pro-mansion tax to help fund NHS improvements
Ed said only this week that the Mansion Tax was a deficit reduction measure
There's a wider point here. I just can't see how the voters are going to get any straight answers on tax and spend out of either main party. Cons are clear that all deficit reduction will come from spending reduction, but are not prepared to say where (another 30% of the MoD anyone?). Labour cling to Mansion Tax and 50% as answer to the whole problem.0 -
I took a bet in the pub last night on there being no debates. I've not heard anything on this subject since Cameron said 'no, unless DUP are involved'. I think I am pretty secure on this one, unless there's a bit of news I missed?0
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Public sector pay excluding the nationalised banks rose 1.2% during the last year. Not as much as the private sector but certainly not 'frozen':HYUFD said:SeanF Private sector pay was hit hard by the crash, but is now recovering, public sector pay was only restrained post 2010 and is still likely to be frozen for a few more years. While the private sector suffered job losses post 2008 it is now creating jobs while the public sector will be shedding them on a net basis for a few more years
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_390755.pdf
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What employing the best doctors?FalseFlag said:
That suggestion shows as little understanding of human nature as any Marxist theory, Unfortunately.isam said:
Just employ the bests doctors regardless of racefoxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
http://electionsetc.com/2015/01/30/forecast-update-30-january-2015/
Not much change from last week but Labour up 2, LD + 1, Con and SNP -1 each.
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A relatively high-profile defection to UKIP from the Conservatives: DIana Coad, leader of the Tories on Slough council and parliamentary candidate in 2001 and 2010.
http://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/news/slough/articles/2015/01/30/107140-exclusive-slough-tory-leader-defects-to-ukip/0 -
I'm on both Jowell and Khan in this race at 12s and longer so very happy with that.
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Sure. I loved the Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
You didn't like the Olympics?!Peter_the_Punter said:
The Olympics.Casino_Royale said:
What's your beef with Tessa Jowell?Peter_the_Punter said:Superb call from Henry and I'm glad to say I was one of those that got on at the top price. Thank you, MrG !
As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
And they did a lot to regenerate the area. And I accept that those that helped make them happen deserved to be rewarded.
But if the Lord helps those that help themselves, the Jowells must have got an awful lot of help.
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Re Greece:
This piece from the Telegraph is spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11378396/The-game-is-up.-Its-time-for-Greece-to-leave-the-eurozone-and-move-on.html
(Probably because it was written by Alistair Heath rather than by Ambrose E-P)
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Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.0 -
Bring back Cookie!0
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There have been a lot of redundancies in the public sector over the last six years, but if you've kept your job you've usually done OK in terms of headline pay. That being said, there has been a trimming of benefits on the public sector, that is largely unremarked on. Shifting the pensionable age of teachers, for example, is effectively a massive cut in benefits promised.Sean_F said:
I thought public sector workers had suffered terribly (compared to the private sector) over the past six years.another_richard said:Larry Elliott in the Guardian:
" But the losses have not been distributed equally. Women have done less poorly than men, primarily because they are more disproportionately likely to work in the public sector, where real earnings have fallen by less than in the private sector. Weekly earnings for a woman smack in the middle of the income distribution (the median) fell by 2.8% between 2008 and 2014; for the equivalent man they fell by 9%. "
I suspect if earnings for women had fallen more than those of men we would have endless condemnation of it from politicians and pressure groups.0 -
Mr. 1000, do you think Greece will leave the eurozone?0
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Nice position. I am only on Jowell.Pulpstar said:I'm on both Jowell and Khan in this race at 12s and longer so very happy with that.
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Summary, polls published during the last two weeks:
Total: 19
Lab leads: 7
Con leads: 6
Ties: 6
Average lead: Lab 0.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#20150 -
Yes, ask Mr Mugabe.isam said:
What employing the best doctors?FalseFlag said:
That suggestion shows as little understanding of human nature as any Marxist theory, Unfortunately.isam said:
Just employ the bests doctors regardless of racefoxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
Ukip 150-1 Cannock chase was tipped on here... About 3/1 now I thinkPeter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
No thread though0 -
Don't think we are at that stage here yet... Though khans quotas won't helpFalseFlag said:
Yes, ask Mr Mugabe.isam said:
What employing the best doctors?FalseFlag said:
That suggestion shows as little understanding of human nature as any Marxist theory, Unfortunately.isam said:
Just employ the bests doctors regardless of racefoxinsoxuk said:
As about 60% of medical students are female and about 40% in Leicester are BME, there are now serious discussions on how we can encourage diversity by recruiting more white male doctors. How times have changed when white men are under represented (and I havent seen a Jewish Med Student in years!)Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.0 -
UKIP will get at least 20% in Cannock Chase and high 20s may be enough to win with a 3 way split.isam said:
Ukip 150-1 Cannock chase was tipped on here... About 3/1 now I thinkPeter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
No thread though0 -
I think it is now more likely than not.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, do you think Greece will leave the eurozone?
The IMF, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone have been pretty clear about what is on the table: an extension of maturities, a cut in the coupon, a reduction in the required size of the primary surplus (from perhaps 4.5% to less than 2%), and a big EIB-led investment programme in Greece.
That would be a fabulous win for Greece - effectively meaning no debt would need to be repaid in the lifetime of most Greeks, and a significant cut in interest repayments.
But such an offer comes with strings: it means a continuation of the privatization programme, it means continued freeing up of the labour market, and it means continued IMF supervision to make sure that targets are met.
It is becoming increasingly clear that SYRIZA - buoyed by offers of support from Russia (who wants a warm water port for its fleet) - thinks the IMF and the EU will fold, and offer them the goodies without the strings.
And that's not going to happen. Even if it was politically acceptable in the rest of Europe (which it is not), the IMF would veto it. Their credibility in future bailouts is too important to allow them to be pushed around by Tsipiras.
I therefore see Tsipiras threatening to withold interest payments in an attempt to increase leverage, and the ratings agencies declaring a technical default. At that point the ECB would refuse to accept Greek government bonds as collateral, and would cease offering Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks. I think the Greek government would order the banks to stay open (even though they would be bust), and I see an almighty run, with the banks unable to execute transfers, and every Euro at hand would be out the door.
At that point, SYRIZA would be forced to re-institute the Drachma.
Because SYRIZA is not pursuing rational economic policies, it is likely the Drachma would fall 50% against the Euro, and the real spending power of Greeks would be decimated. They would have successfully gone from $30,000 of GDP per head to $10,000 in about seven years.
A final problem: "default" sounds like you get away with not paying. But you still owe the money to the IMF and the ECB ad the EU. There will be negotiations and reschedulings, and the like, but you will still end up paying something, or all the foreign assets of the Greek state will get confiscated through the courts.
And it's hard to see this all happening without terrible social unrest in Greece. Terrible social unrest does nothing for a country so dependent on tourism.0 -
Yup. Ed is no less likely to be PM as a result of the SNP winning seats off labour in scotland, yet strangely his price has drifted a fair bit.Peter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
I've been backing at between 2.2 - 2.4
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL0 -
Stephen's Fisher's updated GE Seats projection this morning shows virtually no change on his figures a week ago, which is hadly surprising since his input data from the polls is surprisingly unchanged, with the Tories on 32%, 1% behind Labour and the LbiDems on 8%.
His seat numbers (with last week's comparatives) are:
Con ........... 282 (283)
Lab ............ 280 (278)
LibDem ........ 24 (23)
SNP .............. 40 (42)
Others .......... 24 (24)
Total ........... 6500 -
Maskirovka.FalseFlag said:
There's no evidence that Russia has provided any tanks and no good reason to believe it has. Enjoy this comprehensive report on the armaments being used in the Ukrainian civil war:foxinsoxuk said:
The Russian "volunteers" do seem to have been able to bring heavy equipment with them. I think they are "volunteers" in the sense that the German and Italian forces in the Spanish Civil War were "volunteers".FalseFlag said:http://www.globalresearch.ca/kiev-regime-confirms-that-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-hoax/5428190
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.
http://www.armamentresearch.com/ares-research-report-no-3-raising-red-flags-an-examination-of-arms-munitions-in-the-ongoing-conflict-in-ukraine-2014/
An excerpt from the conclusion:
ARES has assessed that it is very likely that pro-Russian separatist forces have received some level of support from one or more external parties, however the level of state complicity in such activity remains unclear. Despite the presence of arms, munitions, and armoured vehicles designed, produced, and allegedly even sourced from Russia, there remains no direct evidence of Russian government complicity in the trafficking of arms into the area (Reuters, 2014c). The majority of arms and munitions documented in service with separatist forces have evidently been appropriated from the Ukrainian security forces and their installations within Ukraine.0 -
Come the 8th May Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister.
Albeit at the head of a shaky coalition.0 -
RCS 1000..Your post and opinion re Greece is almost identical to the discussion I had yesterday with some Italians... some of them have already cancelled holidays there because they think it could turn ugly.0
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Mr. 1000, thanks for that interesting and detailed answer.0
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That's what I thought though I might have played my hand badly by backing snp coalitionsPong said:
Yup. Ed is no less likely to be PM as a result of the SNP winning seats off labour in scotland, yet strangely his price has drifted a fair bit.Peter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
I've been backing at between 2.2 - 2.4
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
Certainly nothing for tories to get too excited about, though they are anyway0 -
Alexis Tsipras has said that he wants to shut down many of the large scale holiday resorts because most of them are foreign-owned and don't benefit local people.0
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Will we see posters saying "Yes we Khan"?0
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I'll second that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, thanks for that interesting and detailed answer.
0 -
-
Summary, polls of fieldwork conducted during the last week:AndyJS said:Summary, polls published during the last two weeks:
Total: 19
Lab leads: 7
Con leads: 6
Ties: 6
Average lead: Lab 0.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
Total: 9
Lab leads: 1
Con leads: 4
Ties: 4
Average lead: Cons 0.33%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
The trend is your friend 0 -
There was an excellent piece on Greece by Martin Wolf in Wed's FT. Really clear explanation of options. I liked this part:rcs1000 said:
I think it is now more likely than not.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, do you think Greece will leave the eurozone?
The IMF, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone have been pretty clear about what is on the table: an extension of maturities, a cut in the coupon, a reduction in the required size of the primary surplus (from perhaps 4.5% to less than 2%), and a big EIB-led investment programme in Greece.
That would be a fabulous win for Greece - effectively meaning no debt would need to be repaid in the lifetime of most Greeks, and a significant cut in interest repayments.
But such an offer comes with strings: it means a continuation of the privatization programme, it means continued freeing up of the labour market, and it means continued IMF supervision to make sure that targets are met.
I therefore see Tsipiras threatening to withold interest payments in an attempt to increase leverage, and the ratings agencies declaring a technical default. At that point the ECB would refuse to accept Greek government bonds as collateral, and would cease offering Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks. I think the Greek government would order the banks to stay open (even though they would be bust), and I see an almighty run, with the banks unable to execute transfers, and every Euro at hand would be out the door.
At that point, SYRIZA would be forced to re-institute the Drachma.
Because SYRIZA is not pursuing rational economic policies, it is likely the Drachma would fall 50% against the Euro, and the real spending power of Greeks would be decimated. They would have successfully gone from $30,000 of GDP per head to $10,000 in about seven years.
A final problem: "default" sounds like you get away with not paying. But you still owe the money to the IMF and the ECB ad the EU. There will be negotiations and reschedulings, and the like, but you will still end up paying something, or all the foreign assets of the Greek state will get confiscated through the courts.
And it's hard to see this all happening without terrible social unrest in Greece. Terrible social unrest does nothing for a country so dependent on tourism.
"Creating the eurozone is the second-worst monetary idea its members are ever likely to have. Breaking it up is the worst."
Greece leaving would, he argues, mean the Euro wasn't a monetary union but a "hard exchange-rate peg".
0 -
I used the two week data because I didn't want to be accused of being partisan by Labour supporters.
The trend is your friendaudreyanne said:
Summary, polls of fieldwork conducted during the last week:AndyJS said:Summary, polls published during the last two weeks:
Total: 19
Lab leads: 7
Con leads: 6
Ties: 6
Average lead: Lab 0.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
Total: 9
Lab leads: 1
Con leads: 4
Ties: 4
Average lead: Cons 0.33%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015 0 -
I think part of the mental problem is that like deficit and debt, the word coalition is tossed around far too liberally when actually the word arrangement and deal is far more accurate.isam said:
That's what I thought though I might have played my hand badly by backing snp coalitionsPong said:
Yup. Ed is no less likely to be PM as a result of the SNP winning seats off labour in scotland, yet strangely his price has drifted a fair bit.Peter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
I've been backing at between 2.2 - 2.4
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
Certainly nothing for tories to get too excited about, though they are anyway
If you read these comments at face value you'd think the Conservatives are surging, whereas the movement is very modest and it's probably level pegging due to the Nat surge only.
E.G.BenM said:Come the 8th May Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister.
Albeit at the head of a shaky coalition.
BenM doesn't mean coalition here in the betting sense of the word, "arrangement" - covering both minority and coalition is what he actually means I'd judge.0 -
To have any chance of forming a working coalition, the Tories need at least 300 seats themselves, compared with the models, eg Fisher reported here, showing them winning circa 280, so that's a big ask with scarcely more than three months to go.isam said:
That's what I thought though I might have played my hand badly by backing snp coalitionsPong said:
Yup. Ed is no less likely to be PM as a result of the SNP winning seats off labour in scotland, yet strangely his price has drifted a fair bit.Peter_the_Punter said:
Crap.JackW said:Should this 33/1 punt come off it will surely be the longest priced winning political wager tipped on this site.
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
I've been backing at between 2.2 - 2.4
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
Certainly nothing for tories to get too excited about, though they are anyway0 -
Almost certainly not, if only because the negotiations will take place over the weekend of 9th/10th May and quite likely well into the next week or even longer. Cam remains PM in this position until Ed can come up with a deal.BenM said:Come the 8th May Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister.
Albeit at the head of a shaky coalition.
I have a punt myself on a Lab-LD-SNP coalition, but after this week's Labour NHS omnishambles I am thinking of shoring my position with a punt on a Tory minority government or LD-Tory. It just seems to me the whole election narrative is going Tory way. Early days of course.0
