Off the wall idea: Let's just suppose that the GE seat numbers finished such that it was impossible for either of the major parties to govern without the support of the SNP who having won 40+ seats held the whip hand.
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there? Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016? Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes. As ever, DYOR.
Another attempt at talking about Labour and the NHS within context of public services on the DP show... Almost a carcrash and the Labour person and pamphlet writer Steve Reed (Croydon) trying hard to shift the focus on to "the Tories might privatise the NHS". 98 days to save Labour NHS policy? Well Labour might privatise more of the NHS. Based on their 97-2010 record!
With the intellectual genius that is Andy Burnham, carefully thinking it all through, what on earth could go wrong?
Off the wall idea: Let's just suppose that the GE seat numbers finished such that it was impossible for either of the major parties to govern without the support of the SNP who having won 40+ seats held the whip hand.
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there? Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016? Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes. As ever, DYOR.
Off the wall idea: Let's just suppose that the GE seat numbers finished such that it was impossible for either of the major parties to govern without the support of the SNP who having won 40+ seats held the whip hand.
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there? Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016? Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes. As ever, DYOR.
Interesting report on the Today programme this morning about why GPs are so fed up.
Summary?
John Humphreys interviewed his own GP who was talking about the level of bureaucracy involved in everything, how much time it took and that was why she - like others - was thinking of leaving. From what I could gather the bureaucracy rather than the money was the issue. She didn't really come up with any answers as to what could be done so it was hard to tell whether this was unnecessary bureaucracy (providing meaningless statistics) or necessary stuff e.g. proper medical notes.
..typical earnings start from $A230,000 (£145,000) and rise to $A300,000 (£195,000) per annum after a few years’ experience
Those salary levels need to be set against a significantly higher cost of living in Australia which includes much higher healthcare costs as the system is insurance based. English GPS are very well paid compared to those in France and Spain for example. This is the main reason why private healthcare is much cheaper in Spain than in the UK
Off the wall idea: Let's just suppose that the GE seat numbers finished such that it was impossible for either of the major parties to govern without the support of the SNP who having won 40+ seats held the whip hand.
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there? Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016? Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes. As ever, DYOR.
£5 is all this is worth.
I take that as a compliment (I think).
Hmm I have a fiver on this too, I'm not convinced completely - but it acts as a bit of a hedge against weightier positions.
You are entirely correct on what should happen, but cutting the tariff for elective orthopaedics or handing all the elective work to private sector providers will end up with emergency work failing.
One big problem is that emergency work over 2008 levels of activity is paid at 30% (I think) of tariff. You may have noticed there has been something of an increase in demand in the last few years and nothing has been even suggested to improve this situation.
The answer of course is blindingly obvious - there shouldn't be any arbitrary tariffs. There should be competitive tendering for a defined set of deliverables. That way we'd get genuine price transparency and it would be clear if, for example, A + E needed extra funding, and, if so, whether it was best to provide that funding or perhaps find a different and less expensive way of providing parts of the service.
Currently we have a somewhat boshed-up hybrid where we have an internal 'market' which is not a proper market at all, because (thanks to ideological obsession) providers are not allowed to compete on price. Of course if you want efficiency in providing mass-market services there is only one way to get it - encourage price competition. It works in every other comparable field of human endeavour.
The other thing that is needed is the willingness to allow hospitals/providers to close if they fail - we are nowhere near that yet. Even when a hospital eg Stafford has been shown to be utterly appalling thousands of people still protest any plans to even remove some services.
The other oddity is that competition/privatisation is bad, everything should be controlled from the centre. However when the centre decides to close an Emergency Dept that is also bad. If you want a monolithic health care provider how can you complain when said monolithic organisation makes decisions?
Out of interest, what's to stop the Greek central bank printing Euros, against the wishes of the ECB?
I was going to answer your AEP question, but I thought I'd answer this one first.
A: Nothing. Except it would be a direct contravention not just of agreements, but of treaty commitments, and would be incompatible with Greece's continued membership of the EU. In the event they were to try, I think there would have to be an ECB ruling that all Euro notes with certain numbers (i.e. Greek printed once after a certain date), would no longer be legal tender. The Euro notes would be rapidly redesigned (to remove Greek lettering), and banks across Europe would require individuals and businesses to exchange their currency.
That being said, SYRIZA seems so clearly determined to go "head-on" with the IMF and the EU, that it wouldn't surprise me. (Or rather, it would surprise me, but given that SYRIZA seems absolutely determined to behave in a way designed to foster economic instability, it's entirely possible.)
With each announcement, the chances of Greece leaving the Euro in a chaotic and uncontrolled fashion increases. The assumption - in the world of finance - was that Tsipras would turn up with a list of demands, and that a compromise would be agreed that would allow all sides to claim victory. However, the plan to make Greek companies less competitive by raising the minimum wage, following on from the cancellations of privatisations over the last few days, and the genuinely scary comments about tourism, make it clear that Tsipras thinks that the IMF and the EU will fold to his demands.
And I think he as badly miscalculated. The IMF, in particular, will simply refuse to deal, and it will be impossible for Germany to go where the IMF does not.
Allister Heath was right this morning that the best way forward for Greece is a controlled exit from the Euro, with credible and sensible economic policies. Unfortunately, SYRIZA's economic hero is Chavez, and Greece has no oil reserves to pay for this socialist vision.
Not for murder, terrorism, rape, paedophiles or any of those other trivial offences - but for every single director of those companies that call you about PPI and "accidents".
Good morning. It didn't snow in London - at least my part - last night. And there I was getting out the old snow shoes, sledge, and all the paraphernalia for a journey to the local Mini-market. I wish those BBC weather walla's would be more on the ball; after all what do we have the BBC for, if not for it's famous weather forecasting.
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Interesting report on the Today programme this morning about why GPs are so fed up.
Summary?
John Humphreys interviewed his own GP who was talking about the level of bureaucracy involved in everything, how much time it took and that was why she - like others - was thinking of leaving. From what I could gather the bureaucracy rather than the money was the issue. She didn't really come up with any answers as to what could be done so it was hard to tell whether this was unnecessary bureaucracy (providing meaningless statistics) or necessary stuff e.g. proper medical notes.
..typical earnings start from $A230,000 (£145,000) and rise to $A300,000 (£195,000) per annum after a few years’ experience
Those salary levels need to be set against a significantly higher cost of living in Australia which includes much higher healthcare costs as the system is insurance based. English GPS are very well paid compared to those in France and Spain for example. This is the main reason why private healthcare is much cheaper in Spain than in the UK
Maybe, although the figures of that page suggest otherwise, taxes are broadly similar, no NI, 1.5-2.5% health levy (which you don't have to pay if you have private insurance). Overall cost of living is 8-10% higher than the UK, but wages are double or better.
Anyway, its beside the point, we are losing hundreds of medics to AUS every year, my brother in law had places for GPs at his practise, after interviewing several they all turned him down, when asked why they told him because they could make a lot more money for shorter hours and less bureaucracy in AUS.
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Although the great irony is that it will act as an enormous disincentive to anyone else to leave the Eurozone. A disorderly default and Grexit will destroy saving and decimate incomes. It will almost certainly lead to political instability and hammer the tourist industry - who wants go somewhere where the bank machines don't work and there are riots?
If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
I agree with your thoughts, but I just want to think through the Greek printing press rolling off Euros a bit more. Let's go with your suggestion of the ECB making Greek Euros printed after a certain date being illegal. I understand Greece has a budget primary surplus right now, so they might feel they are able just to default on their public debts to the troika. But in terms of private debts and private business, can't private Greek institutions pay off their debts with the old Euros they still have on hand, and use the new illegal Euros for intranational business?
How would it work with electronic money which doesn't have serial numbers? Do all countries in the world impose capital controls on Greece? Do they really need to? If a UK bank gets a payment from Greece in Euros, what stops them from then using that in a payment to Germany?
How would the devaluation of new Euros work? Presumably they'd be a spontaneous market between new Euros with the old legal Euros in Greece, but international markets couldn't trade them....
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Although the great irony is that it will act as an enormous disincentive to anyone else to leave the Eurozone. A disorderly default and Grexit will destroy saving and decimate incomes. It will almost certainly lead to political instability and hammer the tourist industry - who wants go somewhere where the bank machines don't work and there are riots?
If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
Makes you wonder what their deal with Russia might be....
Podemas make SYRIZA look positively moderate, they want to resile from Lisbon and leave NATO.
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Although the great irony is that it will act as an enormous disincentive to anyone else to leave the Eurozone. A disorderly default and Grexit will destroy saving and decimate incomes. It will almost certainly lead to political instability and hammer the tourist industry - who wants go somewhere where the bank machines don't work and there are riots? If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Although the great irony is that it will act as an enormous disincentive to anyone else to leave the Eurozone. A disorderly default and Grexit will destroy saving and decimate incomes. It will almost certainly lead to political instability and hammer the tourist industry - who wants go somewhere where the bank machines don't work and there are riots?
If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
Makes you wonder what their deal with Russia might be....
Russian ships berthed in Greek ports, aircraft using former NATO airfields, Vlads holidaying in recently nationalised resorts.
'Baskerville Posts: 76 10:53AM edited 10:53AM Good analysis.
i would also caution about Sadiq's prospects in a mayoral election campaign.
He is by no means a charmer. He will find it difficult to reach out to non-Labour, non-Muslim voters. He doesn't have a personality like Boris's or Ken's, that can appeal cross-party.
He is, at best, a Labour machine politician, and, at worst, a bombastic, narrow-minded opportunist.
N.B. I do know him quite well.'
>>
Found it!
I think it's worth paying heed to this post by Baskerville. As I mentioned, he would not be everyone's cup of tea. As Dragon's would say, 'I'm out.' Actually I've never been 'on' despite knowing his clan.
The last two mayors have both been HIGNTFY panellists. Should we be looking there for the next winner? All jesting aside, I think someone who can reach out with a bit of cross-party charm is a good bet. I didn't like many of Ken's policies but I can see why he was a winner. Boris likewise.
There is actually no winning scenario for the Euros. Many Spaniards are happy to vote for the ex Communists in Podemos, not because they agree with their policies, but because they just want their sovereignty back.
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Although the great irony is that it will act as an enormous disincentive to anyone else to leave the Eurozone. A disorderly default and Grexit will destroy saving and decimate incomes. It will almost certainly lead to political instability and hammer the tourist industry - who wants go somewhere where the bank machines don't work and there are riots?
If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
Pour encourager les autres...
[Off the wall possibility: the Russian State (or their puppet banks) refinance Greece. What then?] EDIT: I see this is already being discussed.
How anyone can draw the conclusion he is some kind of shining example of moderation with his extremist links and anti white racist policy ideas is beyond me
Zac Goldsmith or Karen Brady would be good choices from the tories or maybe as ukip/tory backed independents ?
On some matters Sadiq is a good deal less extremist and anti-libertarian than some on here.
How many of you kippers support gay marriage?
I supported gay marriage ten years before Cameron and the Tories came round to it.
Wow. Good for you Socrates, I say. This will come across as patronising but you have risen in my estimation. There's a pro-libertarian logic to your positions.
Off the wall idea: Let's just suppose that the GE seat numbers finished such that it was impossible for either of the major parties to govern without the support of the SNP who having won 40+ seats held the whip hand.
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there? Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016? Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes. As ever, DYOR.
£5 is all this is worth.
Actually a Grand Coalition is a very good bet in this market. It has very attractive odds AND it is the outcome that would happen in the circumstances that would lead to it.
SNP in coalition is very unlikely, so you'll lose a bet even if the SNP are providing Supply and Confidence support. Similar with anything involving the LibDems - a coalition bet will lose even if their propping up the government.
How anyone can draw the conclusion he is some kind of shining example of moderation with his extremist links and anti white racist policy ideas is beyond me
Zac Goldsmith or Karen Brady would be good choices from the tories or maybe as ukip/tory backed independents ?
On some matters Sadiq is a good deal less extremist and anti-libertarian than some on here.
How many of you kippers support gay marriage?
I supported gay marriage ten years before Cameron and the Tories came round to it.
Wow. Good for you Socrates, I say. This will come across as patronising but you have risen in my estimation. There's a pro-libertarian logic to your positions.
Socrates has always, in my perception, had a strong libertarian streak. A good thing - reactionaries really get my goat.
The last two mayors have both been HIGNTFY panellists. Should we be looking there for the next winner? All jesting aside, I think someone who can reach out with a bit of cross-party charm is a good bet. I didn't like many of Ken's policies but I can see why he was a winner. Boris likewise.
Someone should ask Nick Hewer, he's Labour but economically sensible, has some following on TV, has the right organisation skills for the job. Left the show just before Christmas so might be looking for a job
Not for murder, terrorism, rape, paedophiles or any of those other trivial offences - but for every single director of those companies that call you about PPI and "accidents".
Tell me about it! The wall to wall advertising by such outfits on TalkSport was sufficient to drive me away from listening to what was otherwise quite an entertaining radio station.
following up from his on-the-night prediction that Labour would come third in the Euros.
90 odd days to go.
I see you are, I'll put it kindly, perpetuating your misunderstanding of what Rod actually said. Unkindly, you are perpetuating your lie about what he actually said.
For Attention of Nick Palmer....More evidence about what I said about non-stunning Halal slaughter and your claims are well out of date now. It isn't 1 or 2 animals here and there now, 20% of animals of slaughter using Halal methods are not stunned and this is growing rapidly.
Increase in animals not being stunned before they are Halal slaughtered
The number of cattle killed according to the principles of Islamic Halal slaughter without being stunned rose by nearly a third between 2011 and 2013, while the number of sheep not being stunned increased by half.
Comments
For reasons well rehearsed here, Labour might well refuse to enter into any form of talks with Nicola Sturgeon & Co. and of course the SNP has already rejected out of hand any possibility of a coalition with the Tories, so where would we go from there?
Is there perhaps just a possibility that Labour and the Tories might enter into a strictly time-limited coalition, of perhaps 6-12 months' duration, based on an agreed non-contentious, as you were, budget with just about everything else held over on a care and maintenance basis, with the party having the most seats nominating the PM and other cabinet positions being equally shared, basically to tide things over until an agreed further GE in say May 2016?
Yes it's unlikely, but not wholly impossible in my book and worth a crisp fiver in my view at fancy odds of 50/1 from those nice people at Ladbrokes.
As ever, DYOR.
With the intellectual genius that is Andy Burnham, carefully thinking it all through, what on earth could go wrong?
Those salary levels need to be set against a significantly higher cost of living in Australia which includes much higher healthcare costs as the system is insurance based. English GPS are very well paid compared to those in France and Spain for example. This is the main reason why private healthcare is much cheaper in Spain than in the UK
The other oddity is that competition/privatisation is bad, everything should be controlled from the centre. However when the centre decides to close an Emergency Dept that is also bad. If you want a monolithic health care provider how can you complain when said monolithic organisation makes decisions?
A: Nothing. Except it would be a direct contravention not just of agreements, but of treaty commitments, and would be incompatible with Greece's continued membership of the EU. In the event they were to try, I think there would have to be an ECB ruling that all Euro notes with certain numbers (i.e. Greek printed once after a certain date), would no longer be legal tender. The Euro notes would be rapidly redesigned (to remove Greek lettering), and banks across Europe would require individuals and businesses to exchange their currency.
That being said, SYRIZA seems so clearly determined to go "head-on" with the IMF and the EU, that it wouldn't surprise me. (Or rather, it would surprise me, but given that SYRIZA seems absolutely determined to behave in a way designed to foster economic instability, it's entirely possible.)
With each announcement, the chances of Greece leaving the Euro in a chaotic and uncontrolled fashion increases. The assumption - in the world of finance - was that Tsipras would turn up with a list of demands, and that a compromise would be agreed that would allow all sides to claim victory. However, the plan to make Greek companies less competitive by raising the minimum wage, following on from the cancellations of privatisations over the last few days, and the genuinely scary comments about tourism, make it clear that Tsipras thinks that the IMF and the EU will fold to his demands.
And I think he as badly miscalculated. The IMF, in particular, will simply refuse to deal, and it will be impossible for Germany to go where the IMF does not.
Allister Heath was right this morning that the best way forward for Greece is a controlled exit from the Euro, with credible and sensible economic policies. Unfortunately, SYRIZA's economic hero is Chavez, and Greece has no oil reserves to pay for this socialist vision.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/cucumber-limps-just-over-1million-5030910
Not for murder, terrorism, rape, paedophiles or any of those other trivial offences - but for every single director of those companies that call you about PPI and "accidents".
If that process happens, and as you say it may well do (in marked contrast to your initial 'nothing to see here' anaysis) it will be akin to screening a three month UKIP party political broadcasts on all popular stations.
Maybe, although the figures of that page suggest otherwise, taxes are broadly similar, no NI, 1.5-2.5% health levy (which you don't have to pay if you have private insurance). Overall cost of living is 8-10% higher than the UK, but wages are double or better.
Anyway, its beside the point, we are losing hundreds of medics to AUS every year, my brother in law had places for GPs at his practise, after interviewing several they all turned him down, when asked why they told him because they could make a lot more money for shorter hours and less bureaucracy in AUS.
If you're sitting in Portugal or Spain and you see the disaster that Greece turns into in the initial aftermath, then your willingness to suffer austerity (rather than catastrophe) increases.
I agree with your thoughts, but I just want to think through the Greek printing press rolling off Euros a bit more. Let's go with your suggestion of the ECB making Greek Euros printed after a certain date being illegal. I understand Greece has a budget primary surplus right now, so they might feel they are able just to default on their public debts to the troika. But in terms of private debts and private business, can't private Greek institutions pay off their debts with the old Euros they still have on hand, and use the new illegal Euros for intranational business?
How would it work with electronic money which doesn't have serial numbers? Do all countries in the world impose capital controls on Greece? Do they really need to? If a UK bank gets a payment from Greece in Euros, what stops them from then using that in a payment to Germany?
How would the devaluation of new Euros work? Presumably they'd be a spontaneous market between new Euros with the old legal Euros in Greece, but international markets couldn't trade them....
Thoughts?
Podemas make SYRIZA look positively moderate, they want to resile from Lisbon and leave NATO.
10:53AM edited 10:53AM
Good analysis.
i would also caution about Sadiq's prospects in a mayoral election campaign.
He is by no means a charmer. He will find it difficult to reach out to non-Labour, non-Muslim voters. He doesn't have a personality like Boris's or Ken's, that can appeal cross-party.
He is, at best, a Labour machine politician, and, at worst, a bombastic, narrow-minded opportunist.
N.B. I do know him quite well.'
>>
Found it!
I think it's worth paying heed to this post by Baskerville. As I mentioned, he would not be everyone's cup of tea. As Dragon's would say, 'I'm out.' Actually I've never been 'on' despite knowing his clan.
The last two mayors have both been HIGNTFY panellists. Should we be looking there for the next winner? All jesting aside, I think someone who can reach out with a bit of cross-party charm is a good bet. I didn't like many of Ken's policies but I can see why he was a winner. Boris likewise.
[Off the wall possibility: the Russian State (or their puppet banks) refinance Greece. What then?] EDIT: I see this is already being discussed.
SNP in coalition is very unlikely, so you'll lose a bet even if the SNP are providing Supply and Confidence support. Similar with anything involving the LibDems - a coalition bet will lose even if their propping up the government.
Why do we allow such things?
New Thread, New Danger.