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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson’s 33-1 Sadiq for Mayor tip is looking better
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson’s 33-1 Sadiq for Mayor tip is looking better and better
Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor when the price was 33/1. Henry’s record on Labour matters is usually pretty good and I was amongst many who got on at that price.
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As it happens, my political and betting preferences coincide in this case. I'd happily vote for SK, even if I hadn't had a bet on him. I would definitely not vote for TJ. Almost any plausible alternative from any Party would get my vote ahead of her.
The Tory side of the slate is looking a bit thin now that Lord Coe has definitely ruled himself out. On the Labour side, there are one or two reasonable alternatives to Khan, but I think he'll get the nomination - and probably go on to win the election.
Red on Red incoming as Labour's one card for the GE is torn to shreds by their own members! Now that would be an interesting thread for an election that's actually imminent.
Labour seem intent on playing poker by throwing away a pair of aces and sitting with eight high.
He had a sticky moment last year when Paul Staines hounded him over alleged mobile phone use at the wheel but all that seems to have done is boost his public profile. http://order-order.com/2014/11/03/khan-crash-sadiqs-rush-hour-horror-cuts-into-bus-lane-ahead-of-organ-transport-ambulance-safety-campaigners-slam-sadiq-using-phone-at-wheel/
One fly in the ointment is that he isn't in an absolutely rock solid seat, by any means. He would have to resign as MP anyway, but losing his seat in the meantime wouldn't look good. Surbiton said Tooting is a seat which will go more Labour. This has not been the trend for the last three elections. I know the constituency well and it has changed massively in recent years. The rising middle class profile of the north of the constituency, and even big changes in Tooting itself mean it's now very much a marginal seat (it would go on a 2.5% swing). However, on balance I expect Sadiq's higher profile and own background to carry him through. He is very popular with many constituents. If he stands for mayor this is one seat that could well go Conservative at that point.
Sadiq looks a good bet for selection and mayor even now at those odds.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko confirms there aren't, and never have been, Russian combat units in the Ukraine. Another example where our leaders and the supposedly free press have been systematically lying to engineer us into a conflict.
NOM 1.29 / 1.3
Con 6.8 / 7
Lab 11.5 /12.5
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Those starting with a blank sheet would do better to take the 6s. Now Coe is out of the way, any reasonable Labour choice is likely to win, and Khan certainly qualifies.
The effect on local elections may be significant but are there any seats where these combined effects might make a difference ?
There has been some fantastical stories about some sage from Bedfordshire pulling off a 50/1 shot on Obama winning the presidency in 2008.
However my dear PBers this is a complete urban myth along with unicorns winning the lottery, Peter the Punter buying a round of drinks and Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister - Absolute tommyrot.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11378700/Boris-Johnson-Porn-obsessed-Isil-jihadis-are-literally-wers.html
Whilst no-one significant along the above lines may yet have declared, there is still time for that to happen. I expect everyone is waiting to get past May 7th first.
One of the reasons Ken won so comfortably at first was that the Tories put up uninspiring candidates against him. Wasn't it Norris one time?
An independent maverick type such as a Lord Sugar is always a possibility but building the kind of organisation required from scratch would be seriously expensive and a big ask. Maybe "nailed on" was going too far but the next Mayor being Labour is a very high probability.
http://www.armamentresearch.com/ares-research-report-no-3-raising-red-flags-an-examination-of-arms-munitions-in-the-ongoing-conflict-in-ukraine-2014/
An excerpt from the conclusion:
ARES has assessed that it is very likely that pro-Russian separatist forces have received some level of support from one or more external parties, however the level of state complicity in such activity remains unclear. Despite the presence of arms, munitions, and armoured vehicles designed, produced, and allegedly even sourced from Russia, there remains no direct evidence of Russian government complicity in the trafficking of arms into the area (Reuters, 2014c). The majority of arms and munitions documented in service with separatist forces have evidently been appropriated from the Ukrainian security forces and their installations within Ukraine.
As ever, the most intolerent cultures are the most in denial!
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/07/12/data-shows-pakistan-googling-pornographic-material/
The Russians have form in Crimea and elsewhere. I am not completely unsympathetic to the Donbas separatists but it is a denial of truth to pretend that they are not getting fairly active help from the Russian military.
Tory charge 1.88/1.89
Red retreat 2.16/2.18
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116499091
Provides the missing piece of the jigsaw.
Massacre in Scotland.
I agree, I can't at the moment see any obvious reach-out-and-touch-me Tory in the wings. But an independent with money and clout is another matter.
At the risk of provoking a response from Socrates, Sadiq may not be everyone's cup of tea although I personally think he's a marvellous example of a moderate Muslim, and all power to him for voting for gay marriage for which he received death threats.
Ed said only this week that the Mansion Tax was a deficit reduction measure
Shade ironic to have a chap proposing anti-white quotas in the lead to run a city with a white minority.
All down to the next polls.
Presumably this weekend should see another rash with it being end of month as well? I'm still waiting for polling following a week's fieldwork into Feb before making most of my betting moves. Think once we get to 7th Feb onwards and 3 months to go we'll start to see the tree shaking down.
I see you're up early this moerning, as am I duly refreshed after a good night's sleep.
Last night you offered me the following bet on the composition of the next Government post the May GE :
"I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.
If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election."
For the avoidance of doubt, the bet is to relate only to a formal coalition between the Conservative and LibDem parties, i.e. not involving ant other parties. I'm not sure precisely when the bet is deemed to be settled - perhaps, if you agree, when a coalition cabinet is first officially announced or not as the case may be. Settlement within 3 working days thereof by electronic bank transfer, involving either you paying me £20 or I paying you £80 as described above.
I'm happy to proceed on this basis, please confirm today that you are too.
As two old-timers on PB.com. I am happy to rely on one or other of us settling this bet in an honourable and timely fashion, but should you wish to record this arrangement formally with PtP, then I'm equally happy to follow this procedure, again let me know and may the best man win!
" But the losses have not been distributed equally. Women have done less poorly than men, primarily because they are more disproportionately likely to work in the public sector, where real earnings have fallen by less than in the private sector. Weekly earnings for a woman smack in the middle of the income distribution (the median) fell by 2.8% between 2008 and 2014; for the equivalent man they fell by 9%. "
I suspect if earnings for women had fallen more than those of men we would have endless condemnation of it from politicians and pressure groups.
We are not planning quotas, just looking at other ways of indirectly smoothing the path.
Great tip but as someone who would have to suffer his racist policies I really hope he doesn't get anywhere near it and the tories win with Karren Brady
Mr. F, I'm sure he won't need to campaign too hard to secure the votes of Tower Hamlets.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/06/sadiq-khan-has-unwittingly-highlighted-the-problem-of-islamic-extremism/
The recent averages are as follows:
2014
December -1
November -1
October -2
September -4
August -3
July -3
June -4
May -3
April -4
March -4
February -6
January -6
The trend is your friend
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ma6e52kjx7/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-280115.pdf
After all you have to pay high wages to get top quality people such Meredydd Hughes, Shaun Wright and Joyce Thacker.
Not to mention giving them OBEs, CBEs etc.
There's a wider point here. I just can't see how the voters are going to get any straight answers on tax and spend out of either main party. Cons are clear that all deficit reduction will come from spending reduction, but are not prepared to say where (another 30% of the MoD anyone?). Labour cling to Mansion Tax and 50% as answer to the whole problem.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_390755.pdf
Not much change from last week but Labour up 2, LD + 1, Con and SNP -1 each.
http://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/news/slough/articles/2015/01/30/107140-exclusive-slough-tory-leader-defects-to-ukip/
And they did a lot to regenerate the area. And I accept that those that helped make them happen deserved to be rewarded.
But if the Lord helps those that help themselves, the Jowells must have got an awful lot of help.
This piece from the Telegraph is spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11378396/The-game-is-up.-Its-time-for-Greece-to-leave-the-eurozone-and-move-on.html
(Probably because it was written by Alistair Heath rather than by Ambrose E-P)
Ed is very likely to become PM, and I've heard of many a unicorn winning the lottery.
Total: 19
Lab leads: 7
Con leads: 6
Ties: 6
Average lead: Lab 0.3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
I asked you before but think I missed the response. Why do you think AEP is so rubbish?
No thread though
The IMF, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone have been pretty clear about what is on the table: an extension of maturities, a cut in the coupon, a reduction in the required size of the primary surplus (from perhaps 4.5% to less than 2%), and a big EIB-led investment programme in Greece.
That would be a fabulous win for Greece - effectively meaning no debt would need to be repaid in the lifetime of most Greeks, and a significant cut in interest repayments.
But such an offer comes with strings: it means a continuation of the privatization programme, it means continued freeing up of the labour market, and it means continued IMF supervision to make sure that targets are met.
It is becoming increasingly clear that SYRIZA - buoyed by offers of support from Russia (who wants a warm water port for its fleet) - thinks the IMF and the EU will fold, and offer them the goodies without the strings.
And that's not going to happen. Even if it was politically acceptable in the rest of Europe (which it is not), the IMF would veto it. Their credibility in future bailouts is too important to allow them to be pushed around by Tsipiras.
I therefore see Tsipiras threatening to withold interest payments in an attempt to increase leverage, and the ratings agencies declaring a technical default. At that point the ECB would refuse to accept Greek government bonds as collateral, and would cease offering Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks. I think the Greek government would order the banks to stay open (even though they would be bust), and I see an almighty run, with the banks unable to execute transfers, and every Euro at hand would be out the door.
At that point, SYRIZA would be forced to re-institute the Drachma.
Because SYRIZA is not pursuing rational economic policies, it is likely the Drachma would fall 50% against the Euro, and the real spending power of Greeks would be decimated. They would have successfully gone from $30,000 of GDP per head to $10,000 in about seven years.
A final problem: "default" sounds like you get away with not paying. But you still owe the money to the IMF and the ECB ad the EU. There will be negotiations and reschedulings, and the like, but you will still end up paying something, or all the foreign assets of the Greek state will get confiscated through the courts.
And it's hard to see this all happening without terrible social unrest in Greece. Terrible social unrest does nothing for a country so dependent on tourism.
I've been backing at between 2.2 - 2.4
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
His seat numbers (with last week's comparatives) are:
Con ........... 282 (283)
Lab ............ 280 (278)
LibDem ........ 24 (23)
SNP .............. 40 (42)
Others .......... 24 (24)
Total ........... 650
Albeit at the head of a shaky coalition.
Certainly nothing for tories to get too excited about, though they are anyway
Total: 9
Lab leads: 1
Con leads: 4
Ties: 4
Average lead: Cons 0.33%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
The trend is your friend
"Creating the eurozone is the second-worst monetary idea its members are ever likely to have. Breaking it up is the worst."
Greece leaving would, he argues, mean the Euro wasn't a monetary union but a "hard exchange-rate peg".
If you read these comments at face value you'd think the Conservatives are surging, whereas the movement is very modest and it's probably level pegging due to the Nat surge only. E.G.
BenM doesn't mean coalition here in the betting sense of the word, "arrangement" - covering both minority and coalition is what he actually means I'd judge.
I have a punt myself on a Lab-LD-SNP coalition, but after this week's Labour NHS omnishambles I am thinking of shoring my position with a punt on a Tory minority government or LD-Tory. It just seems to me the whole election narrative is going Tory way. Early days of course.