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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?
One of most striking things of this parliament, is the Lib Dems’ unshakeable calm whilst the national opinion polls suggest in May the Lib Dems are headed for an epochal defeat that may end up being a modern Charge of the Light Brigade.
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(Unless he does another poll showing something different, of course, in which case he can resume his Demon King status.)
Labour shadow cabinet minister Sadiq Khan has made a huge leap forward in the race to become his party’s candidate for Mayor, a YouGov poll reveals today.
The survey carried out earlier this month shows the shadow justice secretary now has more backing amongst Labour supporters than any potential candidate bar frontrunner Tessa Jowell.
Mr Khan, also shadow London minister, was in a distant fourth place in a similar survey conducted before Christmas.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khan-enjoys-huge-poll-boost-in-labour-mayoral-race-10010179.html
But Sky News has learned that hundreds more cases were known to authorities prior to its publication and that hundreds more are being reported.
"Risky Business didn't make all this up. It was accused of making it all up and Alexis Jay exonerated all of that."
The report found Risky Business was seen by the borough's social care services "as something of a nuisance".
Risky Business was shut down in 2011 and victims have expressed frustration that a recent application to set up a new support group has been turned down by the council despite recommendations in the Jay report.
The local authorities were clearly hoping the report exorcised the demons and are now getting back to covering up. Meanwhile no investigations at all are going on in Keighley and Ipswich and Tower Hamlets. And central government doesn't do anything about it, feeling it's a local matter. The child rape of tens of thousands of victims in dozens of towns is a local issue.
Greens yet to make that vital crossover against the Yellows!
Otherwise you risk being sent to the naughty corner!
I'm not clever enough to work out if this is a voodoo poll or not, but for a marginal the numbers are quite sobering for the left.
You need to calm down. Nothing will happen until UKIP start winning elections in these areas. You should take some of your highly impressive energy and passion, stick on a purple rosette and start knocking on doors in these towns
I make Labour's 326th seat, by best bookmaker odds, Somerset North East.
At 15/8 (as is Calder Valley).
They are 12.0 to win a majority on betfair.
Go figure.
In October the Mail told how an internal West Midlands Police problem profile from 2012 had shown 75 per cent of known on-street groomers in the West Midlands were Asian, with 82 per cent of victims aged 14 to 16 being white. A report to Sandwell Safeguarding Children Board in 2013 had revealed: “Intelligence suggests that of potential suspects identified, 75 per cent of those known are of Asian ethnicity. This has mirrored other forces’ experiences of known offenders and, as we have seen from the Derbyshire, Lancashire and Rochdale cases, has the potential to impact on trust and confidence within local communities across the West Midlands.”
...Yet Birmingham City Council had played down the ethnicity link when it published its own report into CSE in November, called We Need To Get It Right. It stated: “The high-profile cases have largely drawn explicit attention to the girls being ‘white’ and the perpetrators ‘Asian’. Our evidence has shouted out that the exploitation can happen to anybody irrespective of where you live or your family circumstances.’’
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/revealed-disproportionately-high-numbers-pakistani-8439716
As it is, pb.com has benefited from his rather idiosyncratic interest in political polling, and making the results of these expensive polls publicly available. For myself, personally, I can only thank him, but I think Nick Clegg was right to question the influence that one person could have, solely because of the concentration of wealth in that one person.
If wealth were more evenly distributed across the country you would have a more democratic allocation of funds to such idiosyncratic interests, and the public life of the nation would not be so strongly influenced by the whims of one individual.
We might, on pb.com, have had to consider subscribing funds from amongst ourselves in order to fund such polling, rather than being merely the grateful [indirect] recipients of Ashcroft's largesse.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/555059758148120576
One quibble: September isn't recent and they were polled before the Green surge and Tories began to get into gear: in fact at the height of the UKIP surge.
You don't think by any chance Clegg is going for self-immolation in exchange for an EU commissioner post or HoL?
[Caveat: Other than TPD Mark Reckless who will remain an enemy until the ends of time and/or Spurs winning the PL whichever is the later]
http://www.libdemvoice.org/latest-ashcroft-polls-of-lib-dem-seats-mp-incumbency-protects-party-in-10-out-of-13-constituencies-43550.html
I don't think there are many juries who would acquit because "she was wearing a short skirt" or "she's a slut."" ~ @Sean_F I think (?) replies got a bit confused.
Well there are three things we might want to align (1) charging/investigation policy (2) the law and (3) societal attitudes as reflected in jury decisions.
While I'm worried that changes in (1) might lead to more cases going to trial where the legal test isn't met, this doesn't reflect a problem with (3). I honestly don't know whether (2) is aligned properly with (3).
The DPP clearly thinks that as well as (1) not according with (2), (3) doesn't either - I infer that (1) and (3) are linked in her mind because members of the CPS and police are the public just like juries.
I tend to think there is a connection with the other discussion about rape, and what constitutes consent, and that is at least as big a reason as to why nothing has been done. The police have viewed these working class girls as fallen girls who have brought it upon themselves.
They don't have the middle class pretty photos for the press that more publicised young girls who have been victims have had.
he's entitled to his opinion on a controversial, important and politically decisive issue.
But I do wonder if James Gordon Brown's seat may well see a bigger than average (And the average will be quite something) swing to the SNP - I reckon he had a massive personal vote there.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sedgefield had a 12.6% swing to Con in 2010, and Folkestone (whilst not really comparable) had a 3.6% Con --> LD swing.
The reason such topics come to dominate the threads is because people are interested/do care and so engage in the discussion.
You can change the subject by providing something more interesting/important to talk about. Droning on about your distrust of the Ashcroft marginal polls - again - is not going to do it.
1. It won't make any difference unless the LDs also break the coalition (which has its own problems).
2. No-one else wants to catch the falling knife in May this year.
It's an article of faith amongst some on here that it must be the case that the second question is the one to take notice of. However, the evidence for this is weak to non-existent. We just don't know.
Personally I'm somewhat sceptical. I'm also very wary of giving too much credence to the differences in swing which Lord A is finding in different constituencies. Some of those differences are undoubtedly pure statistical noise, and some might be caused by the difficulty of weighting individual constituency polls.
Caveat punter.
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16 A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14 Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8 Don Foster Bath 1/7 Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5 Bob Russell Colchester 2/9 Norman Baker Lewes 2/9This is exactly the sort of silencing of the issue that PC types like audrey attempt in order to close down discussion of uncomfortable facts. "Just shut up about all those thousands of children being raped - it's not important and you're a bigot for bringing it up."
Grandiose said:
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I don't know if you remember Socrates but a few months ago I said I was giving DC the benefit of the doubt about this.
My patience is fading.
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I don't know how you can believe anything Dave Cameron says. From Pasties, (small lies, but not harmless) to the EU, (large lies and definitely harmful), the man cannot simply tell the truth.
I'm not asking for the government to concentrate on just Asian offenders. What I'm asking for is for them not to pretend there isn't a specific issue with men of Pakistani heritage in street grooming cases, and for there to be a national investigation on street grooming. If non-Asian rapists get caught and convicted in that, I would be delighted that those scumbags also get thrown in a cell.
Caveat punter secundus
I post on the same issue again and again because it's a national outrage that the mainstream media (with the exception of the Times) has almost entirely dodged and the political class has completely failed in.
But it's good to know you read topics on thousands of child rapes not being investigated and think "Boooring! Next topic please!"
Betting aside, I'd be very unlikely to vote for TJ. In fact if she stands I would say Labour have every chance of losing. The other Parties would only have to put up a half decent candidate to be in with a real shout.
I see Lord Coe has ruled himself out. I'd make SK a fairly clear favorite now in the circumstances.
The serfs there are revolting, it seems...
You might do better looking for "Labour's 366th seat."
I think the EVS about the SNP is pretty solid personally
UKIP not a runner IMO
under over is 32.5 SNP 27.5 Lib Dems. Obv bigger upside for LD but realistically this shouldn't be EVS
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-match-bet
Reminds me of this moment in Fawlty Towers at 50s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFMpySg_UrM&spfreload=10
I've had to take a bit of the 12.0 on betfair since it seems overblown but really the value must be in backing the Tories in seats about the 1/2 mark - Vale of Glamorgan, Portsmouth North, and the aforementioned Somerset North East.
Socrates you aren't asking the government for anything. You aren;t asking anybody for anything. Have you written to your MP? Rotherham's MP? Donated to the UKIP Campaign in Rotherham? Ipswich? Oxford? Knocked on any doors?
No. I bet you have done nothing. You are just ranting away hoping that someone will do it for you.
Here's a clue. It isn;t going to happen.
I've backed Labour in Reading West
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/722/on_street_grooming
Governments cannot initiate criminal prosecutions.
6% is chronic. If you're not right with that theory Thomas then it's almost like they're sleep-walking into oblivion.
Under Butler-Sloss the ball would be rolling; as it is there's been half a year of diddly squat, which will no doubt be the case for months to come.
What would you suggest they do (that they aren't already doing)
Written to the Home Secretary? Yes. Written to the Communities Secretary? Yes.
I for one am glad that he didn't walk away when the coalition was possible. That would make a good counterfactual for your PB authors and maybe a disaster movie too.
However...
There were clear examples of non-universal swing in 2010. I seem to remember some big swings in the Sunderland constituencies, but in the one where a similar swing would have given the seat to the Conservatives - it was far less. I seem recall that in many seats where there was a chance of the tories winning the swing was less not more. Its possible for people to vote tactically. Who knows who it might affect.
Nah. - Clegg's continued leadership is more down to an inept Lord Oakeshott than the brill Lord Ashcroft.
p.s. It's snowing in Acton. Not very heavy but some has settled.
Also, are you ex-Magic Sign?
So if SNP and Lib Dems tie and you've backed SNP at evens, I make that for £100 staked, £50 @ Evs + £50 halved stake = Push.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
Mass immigration causes civil strife
The media circus has moved on. Not enough posh people or media types were involved. Hacking was far more important because those posh people got their phone conversations listened to.
Oh, the horror, not mitigated by the massive pay-outs they received.
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav... There will be lots of v tight contests/ small majorities
I wonder what the total majorities of al 650 seats will be compared to last time? A lot smaller I think... Quite a volatile spread market!
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference, that would be a decent starting point
I take it back, more power to your elbow. I still maintain, however, that nothing will happen until people start losing their seats and their jobs. That is the real world.
The people of South Yorkshire had a fine opportunity to say they had had enough.
They flunked it totally. Shame on them.