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In some ways this is a very impressive achievement by Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,292
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see @MaxPB was telling you all the obvious truth on the prior thread, yet he was predictably ignored or criticised by the PB Centrist Dads

    If we want racism and associated unhappiness, in the UK, to go back to the pleasantly low levels of the Noughties - WHICH WE ALL DO - then we need to

    1. Bring net migration down to under 100,000. It will hurt, but we now have no choice if we want a stable, prosperous country

    2. End asylum as we know it. Stop the boat

    3. Start huge deportations, and make sure the Boriswave doesn't get Leave to Remain, so they go home

    That's it. If we do that we will return to the relative harmony of Yore. Why? Because British people are not racist. They are some of the most tolerant and accepting people on the planet, it is what we do - Live and Let Live. Don't bother me I won't bother you. We've been like this, in the UK, since Elizabeth the First refused to "make a window into men's souls"

    To bring back the tolerant Britain we all knew and loved, we need to be really tough on migration and integration. They are doing exactly this in Denmark, and it is working. We can do it too

    Remember, readers, that this is a lie. Leon is a racist. He has repeatedly voiced his view that there are significant genetic differences in things like intelligence between different supposed "races" around the world. He wants a country with more white babies. He touts nativist policies that would discriminate against immigrants, the children of immigrants and the grandchildren of immigrants.

    Racists pretend that if we just have a few slightly racist policies, then they'll be quiet and everything will be lovey-dovey. In practice, you give them some racist policies, they just want more, as we've seen with Trump.
    lol
    One of the upsides of a Reform government is that swathes of these bureaucrats who hate the country will be sacked and untouchable. If Reform don't have a clearout of these people who very clearly loathe everything about this country and are egging on the boat invasion of third worlders then they will fall at the first hurdle. They need to find people like this and purge them from the civil service immediately and from any other public body.
    Let's see how they do with their local councils first - I'm not holding out much hope on them fixing things.

    Going to be interesting in how they deal with HMO applications given the current news and the fact there are a number coming up in Durham at the next planning committee.
    It will be interesting wrt teh quality of decision making when the Planning Appeals start being processed, which are required to follow law and policy, not politics.

    At least of them will turn out imo to "political noes".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,406
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see @MaxPB was telling you all the obvious truth on the prior thread, yet he was predictably ignored or criticised by the PB Centrist Dads

    If we want racism and associated unhappiness, in the UK, to go back to the pleasantly low levels of the Noughties - WHICH WE ALL DO - then we need to

    1. Bring net migration down to under 100,000. It will hurt, but we now have no choice if we want a stable, prosperous country

    2. End asylum as we know it. Stop the boat

    3. Start huge deportations, and make sure the Boriswave doesn't get Leave to Remain, so they go home

    That's it. If we do that we will return to the relative harmony of Yore. Why? Because British people are not racist. They are some of the most tolerant and accepting people on the planet, it is what we do - Live and Let Live. Don't bother me I won't bother you. We've been like this, in the UK, since Elizabeth the First refused to "make a window into men's souls"

    To bring back the tolerant Britain we all knew and loved, we need to be really tough on migration and integration. They are doing exactly this in Denmark, and it is working. We can do it too

    Remember, readers, that this is a lie. Leon is a racist. He has repeatedly voiced his view that there are significant genetic differences in things like intelligence between different supposed "races" around the world. He wants a country with more white babies. He touts nativist policies that would discriminate against immigrants, the children of immigrants and the grandchildren of immigrants.

    Racists pretend that if we just have a few slightly racist policies, then they'll be quiet and everything will be lovey-dovey. In practice, you give them some racist policies, they just want more, as we've seen with Trump.
    lol
    One of the upsides of a Reform government is that swathes of these bureaucrats who hate the country will be sacked and untouchable. If Reform don't have a clearout of these people who very clearly loathe everything about this country and are egging on the boat invasion of third worlders then they will fall at the first hurdle. They need to find people like this and purge them from the civil service immediately and from any other public body.
    Let's see how they do with their local councils first - I'm not holding out much hope on them fixing things.

    Going to be interesting in how they deal with HMO applications given the current news and the fact there are a number coming up in Durham at the next planning committee.
    It will be interesting wrt teh quality of decision making when the Planning Appeals start being processed, which are required to follow law and policy, not politics.

    At least of them will turn out imo to "political noes".
    The other lesson will be how long those appeals take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,406
    Pushback, and another TACO.

    The US will NOT seek stakes in TSMC, Micron or other chip makers that are boosting investments in the nation, the WSJ reports, citing an unnamed official. TSMC executives had already talked about giving back US CHIPS Act subsidies if the US asked for shares.
    https://x.com/dnystedt/status/1958683656693981559
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,672

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform taking a Tory seat in Surrey is interesting.

    UKIP almost took it in 2013, changes from 2021 so the drop in Tory vote not entirely surprising but very good Reform showing
    Maybe this is one of those bits of Surrey that was traditionally in Middlesex.
    No, this is Runnymede Borough, which was always in Surrey.

    Spelthorne was the bit that used to be in Middlesex, covering Staines, Sunbury and Ashford (Middlesex).
    Runnymede is an appropriate place for Reform to be favoured
    It's yer Magna Carta, innit...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,963
    Only 3 years 10 months of tis shitshow government left
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,784
    edited 6:19AM
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I'm typing these by voice dictation because I've had surgery on both my hands. That's why it's all bit fucked with the clipped prose style of a Raymond Chandler novel.

    Carpal tunnel?
    Dupuytren's Contracture.
    Both sides?

    Yes. I had both hands done, the titanium fixture removed from my left wrist because it sometimes caused internal bleeding and the remains of the finger that I crushed and then self-amputated tidied up. It's fair to say my wanking spanners are not in great shape. I had to get it all done at once as I need time to recover and get some usage back because I'm returning to the University of Jeddah for three months soon.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,117

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    He's braver and more energetic than Farage, so not necessarily.

    Has Farage challenged fare dodgers in person, or walked the beaches near Calais challenging smugglers and migrants? Exposing the charade of French policing efforts?

    Farage reclined near Folkestone with a pair of binoculars whilst pointing out to sea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Certainly thematic.

    Looking forward to the comments from the first lady friend you bring back from a night out in Soho.
    Ironically that's very close to Eek twin A's bedroom when she decorated her house last year...
    He’s put all the books he’s ever read out of the way on a shelf above the door.

    I hope his fixing skills are tip top; what a way to go, that would be…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364

    NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    Gradually falling immigration plus tactical voting from LD and Green voters in Labour held marginals to keep out Reform
    Tactical voting FOR a government party is relatively unusual IMHO.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,757

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    He's braver and more energetic than Farage, so not necessarily.

    Has Farage challenged fare dodgers in person, or walked the beaches near Calais challenging smugglers and migrants? Exposing the charade of French policing efforts?

    Farage reclined near Folkestone with a pair of binoculars whilst pointing out to sea.
    The difference is that there is a huge amount of laughter against Philip, Jenrick, Badenoch etc as they play this absurd gambit.

    Some of the clips of especially Philip squirming as he has reality explained to him on news shows - its indefensible gibberish and he knows it.

    The only defence is this. Looking at the morons turning the England flag into badly painted graffiti or badly dangling them off anything, the Tory assumption that voters are morons does have some merit - some of them clearly are...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,796
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    1982 was probably the best year ever for pop music imo. The Associates' album Sulk was released that year for example. Also Avalon by Roxy Music.
    The best period for pop music is between your 14th and 19th birthday. Everything before that is dad music, everything after is new stuff that's not as good as the old stuff :)
    But this is midwit bollocks, typical of the low-watt centrist Dads of PB, from @kinabalu to @bondegezou and beyond

    Art forms genuinely rise and fall, and popular music has been in decline for two decades now

    It's like an Italian art fan saying "Oh everyone your age loves Da Vinci and that guy Raphael and Michelangelo, but that's because they were around when you were 22, these days we love Parmigianino and Pontormo, and Bronzino, and they're just as good, and Mannerism is where it's at now, daddy-o"

    And that would have been bullshit, wouldn't it? Because Pontormo and Bronzino WERE derivative, which is why they are barely known today, whereas the truly great artists of the High Renaissance are worshipped, because they were geniuses of innovation and execution, changing art as they worked

    See Beatles, Stones. Dylan, Led Zep, and many others 1963-1993, they were the High Renaissance, when this artform exploded
    The Beatles disbanded a decade before I was born, but I found their music refreshing and new when I listened to it seriously when I was around 30. And then if course there's this chap Bach.

    The interesting question is then, what's the next great musical artform? Where will it arise from? Who creates it and how will it spread?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,553
    edited 6:44AM

    Lots of people talking shit today about Employer National Insurance Contributions

    They're exactly the same as Employee Contributions and Income Tax

    They're a tax on the amount paid, and so the amount received, on employment

    It would make ZERO difference if they were called employer taxes or employee taxes, to employer or employee

    They're taxes on working people or people working

    Which are the same thing

    If I'm wrong, explain the difference

    Depends how you look at it.

    Certainly a tax on work.

    Not sure you can say it is tax on the amount paid.

    Perhaps the employer would give you all the employer NI in your wage packet if the tax didn't exist, but it's a stretch I reckon.

    But defo a factor when an employer decides whether to take another member of staff on.

    Defo - anti-growth.

    Not necessarily anti-growth. There is an argument that our reliance on cheap labour has severely curtailed productivity growth, which is historically what drives overall economic growth in the long term (on a per capita basis). A side effect of this tax is it makes capital investment look relatively more attractive, which is good for the UK in the long term.

    In terms of how it is passed on, no one really knows. Some will be passed on via wages, some via prices in the shop, some in levels of employment. Those proportions will change over time because some of those things take time to adjust.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,117
    People love music in the 14-21 age bracket because they link it to their cherished memories of how they formed and defined themselves as an adult.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,117

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    He's braver and more energetic than Farage, so not necessarily.

    Has Farage challenged fare dodgers in person, or walked the beaches near Calais challenging smugglers and migrants? Exposing the charade of French policing efforts?

    Farage reclined near Folkestone with a pair of binoculars whilst pointing out to sea.
    The difference is that there is a huge amount of laughter against Philip, Jenrick, Badenoch etc as they play this absurd gambit.

    Some of the clips of especially Philip squirming as he has reality explained to him on news shows - its indefensible gibberish and he knows it.

    The only defence is this. Looking at the morons turning the England flag into badly painted graffiti or badly dangling them off anything, the Tory assumption that voters are morons does have some merit - some of them clearly are...
    That post was just noise.

    Sorry.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,446
    edited 6:50AM
    Anyone familiar with jazz understands that music is “not as good as it used to be”.

    Jazz fans can also falsify the “music from when you were a teenager sounds best” hypothesis.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,757

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    He's braver and more energetic than Farage, so not necessarily.

    Has Farage challenged fare dodgers in person, or walked the beaches near Calais challenging smugglers and migrants? Exposing the charade of French policing efforts?

    Farage reclined near Folkestone with a pair of binoculars whilst pointing out to sea.
    The difference is that there is a huge amount of laughter against Philip, Jenrick, Badenoch etc as they play this absurd gambit.

    Some of the clips of especially Philip squirming as he has reality explained to him on news shows - its indefensible gibberish and he knows it.

    The only defence is this. Looking at the morons turning the England flag into badly painted graffiti or badly dangling them off anything, the Tory assumption that voters are morons does have some merit - some of them clearly are...
    That post was just noise.

    Sorry.
    In what way:

    The Tories vastly increased the number of migrant hotels
    They're now claiming they cut them
    They're being called out for the lie on mainstream media
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,476

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    He's braver and more energetic than Farage, so not necessarily.

    Has Farage challenged fare dodgers in person, or walked the beaches near Calais challenging smugglers and migrants? Exposing the charade of French policing efforts?

    Farage reclined near Folkestone with a pair of binoculars whilst pointing out to sea.
    The difference is that there is a huge amount of laughter against Philip, Jenrick, Badenoch etc as they play this absurd gambit.

    Some of the clips of especially Philip squirming as he has reality explained to him on news shows - its indefensible gibberish and he knows it.

    The only defence is this. Looking at the morons turning the England flag into badly painted graffiti or badly dangling them off anything, the Tory assumption that voters are morons does have some merit - some of them clearly are...
    That post was just noise.

    Sorry.
    In what way:

    The Tories vastly increased the number of migrant hotels
    They're now claiming they cut them
    They're being called out for the lie on mainstream media
    The art of shocking is knowing when to stop. Go too far, and the audience recoils. See talk radio, edgy columnists, comedy, skimpy clothing... and politics.

    Farage gets that, because he has had loads of practice. Jenrick, Badenoch et al are amateurs at this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636

    People love music in the 14-21 age bracket because they link it to their cherished memories of how they formed and defined themselves as an adult.

    Although in Leon's case he's still waiting...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Almost £500m wiped off WH Smith after accounting error
    The blunder sent the company’s share price to its lowest level in 12 years"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/21/almost-500m-wiped-off-wh-smith-after-accounting-error

    Forward recognition of supplier rebates.

    Looks like something trivial to get right to my eyes (This is my day job). The sort of error that happened not because of a mistake but because Smiths wanted to make it's US division look more profitable than it actually was ..

    Not sure it is a blunder, more an attempt at investor deception
    How many UK companies have found the US to be a graveyard for their expansion ambitions? Trump's approach to valuations should have been a warning.
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