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The Times They Are A’Changing – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,553
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    Bet it got them working harder though.
    Indeed. As much as anything else, they had the fantastically useful knowledge that it was possible. Something the yanks and us did not have.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    moonshine said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India? And that has a seemingly infinite political capacity to absorb battlefield losses?

    I do not envy Zelensky, there are no good options available to him. There was a window for a fast moving manoeuvre warfare victory, it was in late 2022. But the moment was lost. By summer 2023 the chance had gone.
    The 'Russia can fight forever' bollox.

    Afghan War
    Cold War
    Polish-Soviet War
    Great War
    Russo-Japanese War
    Crimean War
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    edited August 16
    What has changed, other than Trump now trying force acceptance of something already rejected ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t
    ...While Putin has reportedly offered a halt in fighting and freeze on the front line in return for control of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, Zelensky has already ruled it out.
    The Russian leader's offer, which he apparently made to Trump during talks in Alaska, would require approval through the Ukrainian parliament.
    Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky refused to cede control of the region to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
    "If we withdraw from the Donbas today - our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control - we will clearly open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive," he said.
    The proposal would also contradict EU leaders' warnings that in any peace deal, Ukraine's "territorial integrity" must be respected and "international borders must not be changed by force"...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I don't have to as the Ukrainians are willing to fight for their own country.

    I also don't suffer from main character syndrome as you do.

    Nor do I have a substandard IQ as you do as you claim you want the British military to 'shore up Ukraine's defences'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592
    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    As I said last night, Putin can end the war yesterday by withdrawing to the 1991 border.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    And everyone knows it.

    But there are some people who are mendacious enough to claim otherwise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    Still, it got Epstein off the front pages.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,321
    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    Shades of Peter Hitchens’ greatest send off

    https://youtu.be/puMqlj0QRjA?si=XGRyLEy4REqV8UWg
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592

    moonshine said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India? And that has a seemingly infinite political capacity to absorb battlefield losses?

    I do not envy Zelensky, there are no good options available to him. There was a window for a fast moving manoeuvre warfare victory, it was in late 2022. But the moment was lost. By summer 2023 the chance had gone.
    The 'Russia can fight forever' bollox.

    Afghan War
    Cold War
    Polish-Soviet War
    Great War
    Russo-Japanese War
    Crimean War
    Mongol Invasion
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,553
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    Which is why I said "we must hasten to shore up Ukrainian defences, so Putin cannot do it again, as he would face certain defeat"

    Does that sound like I am convinced that all will be "sweetness and light" at the end of this? No, it does not. So stop creating straw men

    As for Putin's offer, I am not saying Ukraine must now instantly agree to all of Putin's terms - that would be absurd - I am saying that as an offer is being made, perhaps there is a deal to be done

    The fact is, neither side can win this war. Putin is not strong enough to take all of Ukraine, but - crucially - nor can he be defeated. Why? Because

    1. he has nukes

    and, apparently forgotten by all the tiny tin soldiers on PB -

    2. China, easily as powerful here as America, has said it will not allow Russia to be defeated

    "China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says"

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl

    China is the world's largest trading economy, the largest economy by PPP, and the world's biggest manufacturer. If it wants to keep Russia in the war it can do so for eternity, providing materiel and money

    So there we have it. Neither side can win. Putin can't beat Ukraine backed by Europe, but Ukraine, no matter how much help we give it, cannot beat Russia backed by China

    Ergo, at some point a deal will be done. The question is, where and when. Perhaps starting here and now would save some lives
    "1. he has nukes

    and, apparently forgotten by all the tiny tin soldiers on PB - "

    It is not forgotten. It has been addressed many times on here, by myself and others.

    The problem is that the nukes are not much direct use to Putin in this particular war. If he uses strategic nukes, then he will lose massive international support - even Modi might think that is a little too much. It is a line he really does not want to cross, especially as it risks escalation and both conventional and/or nuclear responses. And tactical nukes are f-all use to him, especially as all the NBC-trained troops are probably already deaded, and the NBC-capable kit long since hit the clouds as part of the turret-tossing competition. Tactical nukes are of debatable usefulness, even with trained troops and top-notch kit.

    Russia's nukes are of indirect use, in letting weak-minded intellectually-dim fools wipe the sweat off their foreheads and say: "But he has NUKES!!!!". Aside from that, they are not useful in this type of war.

    So my question to you is this: if your fear of Putin's nukes lets him take Ukraine, then how about the Baltic states? Would you also wring your hands and say "But he has nukes!" as tanks roll into Riga? Or Warsaw? Or London?

    It's funny how the right-wing wannabe Roderick Spodes and the left-wing tankies all spout the line about nukes...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,512
    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,043
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    The new Neal Stephenson trilogy - Bomblight - is all about the Russian atomic bomb project.
    Any good ?
    Or should we just reread Rhodes' Dark Sun ?
    Well... Only the first volume has been released so far.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,858

    moonshine said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India? And that has a seemingly infinite political capacity to absorb battlefield losses?

    I do not envy Zelensky, there are no good options available to him. There was a window for a fast moving manoeuvre warfare victory, it was in late 2022. But the moment was lost. By summer 2023 the chance had gone.
    The 'Russia can fight forever' bollox.

    Afghan War
    Cold War
    Polish-Soviet War
    Great War
    Russo-Japanese War
    Crimean War
    Mongol Invasion
    This long ago stuff can be hard to be sure about. Suppose that the Mongol hordes were in fact Goblin hordes - surely that's a better explanation of Putin.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,553

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    As I said last night, Putin can end the war yesterday by withdrawing to the 1991 border.
    Putin is the only person who can end this war. If (say) Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian parliament decided to surrender, there are still tens of thousands of Ukrainian men and women who know exactly what that will mean to them - and unlike the French Maquis, will have had vast war experience.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    Nigelb said:

    What has changed, other than Trump now trying force acceptance of something already rejected ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t
    ...While Putin has reportedly offered a halt in fighting and freeze on the front line in return for control of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, Zelensky has already ruled it out.
    The Russian leader's offer, which he apparently made to Trump during talks in Alaska, would require approval through the Ukrainian parliament.
    Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky refused to cede control of the region to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
    "If we withdraw from the Donbas today - our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control - we will clearly open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive," he said.
    The proposal would also contradict EU leaders' warnings that in any peace deal, Ukraine's "territorial integrity" must be respected and "international borders must not be changed by force"...

    Its interesting though to see which 'useful idiots' rush out with the 'Ukraine must give up land for peace' line.

    Corbynistas are expected but the Christian ethno-nationalist types are very revealing.

    I wonder if they would be so concerned about Russians dying if Russians were black or Muslim. I doubt it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    edited August 16

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    Atheists Don't Poll?
    There aren't very many of them.

    The doctrinaire ones (ie those who say "we know all the answers ,and they are THIS") try to pass off all the agnostics as agreeing with them.

    Check the membership numbers of the key organisations, and the statistical games they play.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592
    moonshine said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India?
    "Indian Fatigue: The Issue Spreading Across the World"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4dMtLPoVjI

    We’ve been hearing from Canadians that “Indian Fatigue” is happening all across [Canada] — and now, it’s no longer just a national concern.

    What started as a Canadian conversation has spread to become a worldwide issue. Indian Fatigue — our term for the growing frustration over rapid demographic and cultural changes linked to large-scale immigration from India — is now being discussed in communities across the globe.

    In this video, we look at what Canadians are saying and show some recent examples, highlighting how this issue is affecting communities and sparking conversations everywhere. This is a conversation the world can’t ignore.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,553
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Effectively it's "here's a deal I made with my friend Vlad. You (Europe) get to commit tens of thousands of men, and billions in armament, to enforce it.
    We'll give you moral support."

    That makes zero sense.

    If we have the capacity to enforce the deal, we should negotiate it.
    It's worse than that. It is : "here's a deal I made with my friend Vlad. You (Europe) get to commit tens of thousands of men, and billions in armament, to enforce it.
    We'll give you moral support, and Putin lots of money via the removal of sanctions."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Some do, quite a lot.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannu_Rajaniemi
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,445
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Some do, quite a lot.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannu_Rajaniemi
    And another:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Egan
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    What has become absolutely clear since this morning is that Putin played Trump like a fiddle.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Some do, quite a lot.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannu_Rajaniemi
    That's only one, so surely it's math not maths :wink: .

    (Looking at wiki, why when he was 33 did he look about 19? )
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    edited August 16

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Some do, quite a lot.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannu_Rajaniemi
    And another:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Egan
    Re my previous comment.

    :frowning:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,184
    edited August 16

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,551
    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Boris Churchill?

    Trump and Putin have run rings around the hapless trio of Merz, Macron and Starmer.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,149
    moonshine said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India? And that has a seemingly infinite political capacity to absorb battlefield losses?

    I do not envy Zelensky, there are no good options available to him. There was a window for a fast moving manoeuvre warfare victory, it was in late 2022. But the moment was lost. By summer 2023 the chance had gone.
    This is clearly a problem for Ukraine and they seem to be struggling at present despite the counterattack of the last couple of days. But this war is changing at a frightening pace with new generations of drones every month. Russia is matching this so far , even the Patriots are struggling with developments, but the possibility of one side or the other gaining a technological lead of such significance that the battlefield bends their way remains.

    This seems to me to be the key to how this goes forward. We, in Europe, need to use all of our technological and scientific skills to ensure that Ukraine are the ones who gain that advantage. It is our most urgent technological challenge since Covid. I think that the technology we have in F1 in particular could really help with this.

    We cannot rely on the US to help with this. We need to be fully committed without Trump's equivocation. Germany, with its technological might, is also going to be key. The time to move is now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,488
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    AIUI there's big ethnic Russian population in, for example, Estonia. What action would we/Trump take if Putin decided these people were being discriminated against.


    And @cicero, I know they're not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,213
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Look at the graph

    On the 12th August 2019, of 18-24 year olds (so, yes, a SUBSET):

    42% said I do not believe in any God/s or spiritual power

    22% said I believe in God/s

    17% said I do not believe in God/s but I do believe in a spiritual higher power

    Five years later on 6th August 2025:

    37% said I believe in God/s (up 15%)

    18% said I I do not believe in God/s but I do believe in a spiritual higher power (up 1%)

    32% said I do not believe in any of this nonsense (down 10%)

    I have excluded Don't Knows coz agnostics are boring


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    I have no idea where young people are on God statistically as I have not looked to see if the data is any good. But a return to belief in God is a bit overdue. Obviously no-one knows whether there is such being beyond the created order, just as no-one knows whether there are other intangibles like objective values.

    But God is easily the most useful and versatile repository of the idea of objective meaning, worth, values, ideals and so on WRT to life of any individual, and ethical monotheism is extraordinary in its simplicity, flexibility and utility, especially when mentally detached from the mess organised religion has made of it so often.

    So as concepts like 'the rule of law', 'the values of my/the community' recede and the relativist moral rubbish of people like Nietzsche are seen as the horror show they are, and more people realise that science can't give full accounts of reality, maybe God can make a quiet back seat comeback. Especially as young people seem well equipped to dismiss the malign inheritance of Augustine on the western understanding of sex.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,785
    An American security guarantee for Ukraine is worthless and everyone knows it but keeps up the delusion.

    Does anyone seriously think Trump would come to the aid of Ukraine . Starmer and the rest of Europe have failed miserably and the constant massaging of Trumps ego is vomit inducing .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,300
    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,858
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Latest score:

    Leon 1 Readers 0
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    nico67 said:

    An American security guarantee for Ukraine is worthless and everyone knows it but keeps up the delusion.

    Does anyone seriously think Trump would come to the aid of Ukraine . Starmer and the rest of Europe have failed miserably and the constant massaging of Trumps ego is vomit inducing .

    Or of any country except Israel.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,445

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
    Seems crazy. Could they be just trying to hang on and achieve crumbs of influence via flattery, hoping for a post Trump political swingback in America?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,300

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,894
    edited August 16

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
    Dave was right.

    Liz was very right.*

    Nige is Far Right.

    *Be honest, I had you going there, didn't I?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,300
    edited August 16
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not even enough money to buy a pair of decent trainers or shoes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,203
    A couple of worth-a-listen bits from the Rest is Politics commentary:

    Bad 'Al on looking up all his diary entries about Vladimit Putin and how his technique has not changed a bit, and Tony Blair trying to reason with him about Chechnya in the noughties:

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1816

    Rory Stewart comparing Trump's perceptions of the world and policy to games of Risk and The Settlers of Catan he is playing with his children (nearly teen iirc):

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1219
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,000
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    AIUI there is a NATO trip wire force in Estonia for that very reason. An attack on Estonia would result in the death of multinational NATO soldiers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,300
    edited August 16
    ydoethur said:

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
    Dave was right.

    Liz was very right.*

    Nige is Far Right.

    *Be honest, I had you going there, didn't I?
    Sorry I am distracted with this record breaking innings by the Oval Invincibles in The Hundred.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    edited August 16

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not even enough money to buy a pair of decent trainers or shoes.
    Well a few pairs for me tbf. I'm a vans man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,894

    ydoethur said:

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
    Dave was right.

    Liz was very right.*

    Nige is Far Right.

    *Be honest, I had you going there, didn't I?
    Sorry I am distracted what this record breaking innings by the Oval Invincibles in The Hundred.
    You'll be Surrey you ever started watching the Hundred.

    It's like being a supporter of Max Verstappen, with added money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,300
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
    Dave was right.

    Liz was very right.*

    Nige is Far Right.

    *Be honest, I had you going there, didn't I?
    Sorry I am distracted what this record breaking innings by the Oval Invincibles in The Hundred.
    You'll be Surrey you ever started watching the Hundred.

    It's like being a supporter of Max Verstappen, with added money.
    I am loving the crowd, booing Steve Smith at every opportunity.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,168

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    AIUI there's big ethnic Russian population in, for example, Estonia. What action would we/Trump take if Putin decided these people were being discriminated against.


    And @cicero, I know they're not.
    Discriminated against as in being twice as rich as average Russians in Russia?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    Sure but its a second order fantasy projection - its not that they want us to become what Russia is, they want us to become what they think Russia should be.

    They cannot even pretend that Russia is militarily strong - so they just babble that Russia can fight for ever when any knowledge of history shows that isn't true.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
    Seems crazy. Could they be just trying to hang on and achieve crumbs of influence via flattery, hoping for a post Trump political swingback in America?
    I understand the impulse, which made a certain amount of sense back when Starmer had that first meeting with Trump.

    We're past that now, I think.

    The outcome of this set of negotiations could determine Europe's next decade. Setting aside our own interests in some futile effort to "manage" Trump is madness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,337

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    6h
    John Bolton: “Trump didn’t lose, but Putin clearly won. Trump didn't come away with anything except more meetings…Trump looked very tired up there. I mean, very tired. Not disappointed. Tired.”

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1956688271334867178
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,337

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    Sure but its a second order fantasy projection - its not that they want us to become what Russia is, they want us to become what they think Russia should be.

    They cannot even pretend that Russia is militarily strong - so they just babble that Russia can fight for ever when any knowledge of history shows that isn't true.

    Also Ukraine wants to join the EU and Reform hate the EU with a passion. Putin wants to wreck the EU.

    You can see how Farage and co join the dots in their heads and become pro-kremlin.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not even enough money to buy a pair of decent trainers or shoes.
    You clearly have WAY more money than sense! :lol:
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,000
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
    Seems crazy. Could they be just trying to hang on and achieve crumbs of influence via flattery, hoping for a post Trump political swingback in America?
    I understand the impulse, which made a certain amount of sense back when Starmer had that first meeting with Trump.

    We're past that now, I think.

    The outcome of this set of negotiations could determine Europe's next decade. Setting aside our own interests in some futile effort to "manage" Trump is madness.
    Surely it's not setting aside our interests, we have three and a half years of having to brown-nose Trump. It's dirty work, but it is what Starmer is paid for. Hopefully other stuff is going on in the background.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    Sure but its a second order fantasy projection - its not that they want us to become what Russia is, they want us to become what they think Russia should be.

    They cannot even pretend that Russia is militarily strong - so they just babble that Russia can fight for ever when any knowledge of history shows that isn't true.

    Also Ukraine wants to join the EU and Reform hate the EU with a passion. Putin wants to wreck the EU.

    You can see how Farage and co join the dots in their heads and become pro-kremlin.

    Farage is so far up Trump's arse, you'll have difficulty working out where he ends and Trump begins!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,000

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not even enough money to buy a pair of decent trainers or shoes.
    You clearly have WAY more money than sense! :lol:
    Indeed, you can buy a pair of carbon fibre racing shoes for less than £300 (although arguably they're not "trainers")
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,954

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    I don't think any of these anti-Reform exposes will work.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592
    edited August 16

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    You're not implying that Dave Was Right, are you?
    Dave was right in almost all things.

    Reform is the party for anti Brit traitors.
    Dave on AV:

    He said: "It's a system - AV - so undemocratic that you can vote for a mainstream party just once, whereas someone can vote for a fringe party like the BNP and it's counted three times...

    "It's so unfair that the candidates who come second or third can end up winning."

    Mr Cameron likened an election to the Grand National horse race, saying that changing the voting system would not guarantee a clear winner.

    He said AV was "not good enough for Aintree and it's not good enough for politics".

    AV was only used in Australia, Fiji and Papua New Guinea, the prime minister said, whereas "our system is used by half the world".

    Mr Cameron closed his speech by quoting former Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill, calling AV "the system where the most worthless votes go to the most worthless candidates".


    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-13039687.amp
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
    Seems crazy. Could they be just trying to hang on and achieve crumbs of influence via flattery, hoping for a post Trump political swingback in America?
    I understand the impulse, which made a certain amount of sense back when Starmer had that first meeting with Trump.

    We're past that now, I think.

    The outcome of this set of negotiations could determine Europe's next decade. Setting aside our own interests in some futile effort to "manage" Trump is madness.
    I agree. And I think we're in the clarifying period now. I can't see this queasy dynamic between him and 'us' (Europe) holding for much longer. Hopefully the UK will get aligned with Europe rather than continuing with the "bridge" business.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,337
    First ball.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    Sure but its a second order fantasy projection - its not that they want us to become what Russia is, they want us to become what they think Russia should be.

    They cannot even pretend that Russia is militarily strong - so they just babble that Russia can fight for ever when any knowledge of history shows that isn't true.
    Well that's as far as I want to go in their heads, Richard. It's a racist hellhole in there.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,332

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not even enough money to buy a pair of decent trainers or shoes.
    You clearly have WAY more money than sense! :lol:
    TSE just highlighting his inferiority complex with every post about his shoes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    MattW said:

    A couple of worth-a-listen bits from the Rest is Politics commentary:

    Bad 'Al on looking up all his diary entries about Vladimit Putin and how his technique has not changed a bit, and Tony Blair trying to reason with him about Chechnya in the noughties:

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1816

    Rory Stewart comparing Trump's perceptions of the world and policy to games of Risk and The Settlers of Catan he is playing with his children (nearly teen iirc):

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1219

    I'm not a fan of theirs, but that's actually quite a good episode.
    Interesting that Blair was played by Putin ("someone we can deal with") almost as well as Trump.

    All credit to the Russian sociopath, getting Trump to deal with him as though Russia is still America's equal is top level psychological manipulation.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,017

    Nigelb said:

    What has changed, other than Trump now trying force acceptance of something already rejected ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t
    ...While Putin has reportedly offered a halt in fighting and freeze on the front line in return for control of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, Zelensky has already ruled it out.
    The Russian leader's offer, which he apparently made to Trump during talks in Alaska, would require approval through the Ukrainian parliament.
    Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky refused to cede control of the region to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
    "If we withdraw from the Donbas today - our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control - we will clearly open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive," he said.
    The proposal would also contradict EU leaders' warnings that in any peace deal, Ukraine's "territorial integrity" must be respected and "international borders must not be changed by force"...

    Its interesting though to see which 'useful idiots' rush out with the 'Ukraine must give up land for peace' line.

    Corbynistas are expected but the Christian ethno-nationalist types are very revealing.

    I wonder if they would be so concerned about Russians dying if Russians were black or Muslim. I doubt it.
    This website is so funny sometimes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    A couple of worth-a-listen bits from the Rest is Politics commentary:

    Bad 'Al on looking up all his diary entries about Vladimit Putin and how his technique has not changed a bit, and Tony Blair trying to reason with him about Chechnya in the noughties:

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1816

    Rory Stewart comparing Trump's perceptions of the world and policy to games of Risk and The Settlers of Catan he is playing with his children (nearly teen iirc):

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1219

    I'm not a fan of theirs, but that's actually quite a good episode.
    Interesting that Blair was played by Putin ("someone we can deal with") almost as well as Trump.

    All credit to the Russian sociopath, getting Trump to deal with him as though Russia is still America's equal is top level psychological manipulation.
    Trump is so far up Putin's arse, you'll have trouble working out where he ends and Putin begins!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,345
    edited August 16
    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
  • isamisam Posts: 42,321
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    You said Sir Keir was “muscular” as well! Are these tough guys smothered in baby oil when you think of them?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,184
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not so bad for a couple of hours on a lazy Saturday afternoon - which I would otherwise have spent faffing about on here, probably
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,345

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120
    Andy_JS said:

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    I don't think any of these anti-Reform exposes will work.
    Reform's vulnerability are their polices and lack of policies.

    They're effectively in the same bind the other parties are in with taxes needing to rise and, spending needing to fall and the country living with its means for a generation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,337
    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en

    Putin commented on his meeting with President Trump.

    https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1956741995130507531

    ===

    No way is this the same guy who was at the Trump press conference.

    FFS - it is obvious.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    You said Sir Keir was “muscular” as well! Are these tough guys smothered in baby oil when you think of them?
    Hang on, Boris surely. And it was that Philip Tompkins not me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,345

    Andy_JS said:

    If Reform are to falter by the next election, then it will be things like this, a bit like the anti Brit cranks which hamstrung Labour in the 1980s.

    Farage adviser said UK would be better off if it had not fought Nazi Germany

    Exclusive: Jack Anderton says UK may ‘regain’ former colonies in future and suggests end to support for Ukraine


    An adviser used by Nigel Farage and others in Reform UK to boost their social media popularity has suggested that Britain would be better off had it stayed neutral in the second world war instead of fighting Nazi Germany.

    Jack Anderton, who ran Farage’s hugely successful TikTok account before helping Luke Campbell become the Reform mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, also said the UK should not support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

    In a post on his personal blog about Britain’s international standing, Anderton said that in a future world of “meritocracy”, the UK could “regain” former colonies such as Australia, Canada and South Africa.

    He added that the UK should copy the policy of mass incarceration carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, widely condemned as an abuse of human rights.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/16/nigel-farage-adviser-uk-would-be-better-off-if-it-had-not-fought-nazi-germany

    I don't think any of these anti-Reform exposes will work.
    Reform's vulnerability are their polices and lack of policies.

    They're effectively in the same bind the other parties are in with taxes needing to rise and, spending needing to fall and the country living with its means for a generation.
    We would have been better off had we stayed neutral in WW2. We fought a great evil, and made a huge sacrifice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,345

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not so bad for a couple of hours on a lazy Saturday afternoon - which I would otherwise have spent faffing about on here, probably
    It's more than I earned today, I'll give you that.

    Bit of cheap and cheerful clickbait?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    @Luckyguy1983 house?

    I find it interesting to hear people forgetting to ask what the Ukrainian people want.

    Mind you, I recall one of our resident Realist Regimentals telling us that a CNN poll was a “shitty poll” because it said the Ukrainians weren’t keen on the whole BeAPartOfRussia thing - even in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, which Russia claims
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,184
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not so bad for a couple of hours on a lazy Saturday afternoon - which I would otherwise have spent faffing about on here, probably
    It's more than I earned today, I'll give you that.

    Bit of cheap and cheerful clickbait?
    Started out that way, but became something more serious and considered

    I'm proud of my final line
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    .

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    So security guarantees are required from the USA to underpin any agreement to end the war.

    Given that Trump's common habit is to repudiate completely all his own promises and solemn agreements, how what guarantees do we have the Trump will keep his own promise?

    I'd say ... zero.
    Crux point really.

    What does a meaningful US security guarantee look like when the US president is Donald Trump? Even the erstwhile ultimate, NATO membership, how cast-iron is that now?

    Eg, Russia invades a Baltic state that's in NATO. Does the US really treat this as an attack on itself? I wouldn't want to bank on it, would you?
    This is the absurd thing.

    European leaders - Rutte for example, and reportedly this evening, Merz - are still trying to play nice with Trump, as he appears to be in the process of selling out European security.

    If Europe doesn't push aside the Orbans, and unite for the sake of its own security, then the next decade is going to be more of a lost decade than was the last one.
    Seems crazy. Could they be just trying to hang on and achieve crumbs of influence via flattery, hoping for a post Trump political swingback in America?
    I understand the impulse, which made a certain amount of sense back when Starmer had that first meeting with Trump.

    We're past that now, I think.

    The outcome of this set of negotiations could determine Europe's next decade. Setting aside our own interests in some futile effort to "manage" Trump is madness.
    Surely it's not setting aside our interests, we have three and a half years of having to brown-nose Trump. It's dirty work, but it is what Starmer is paid for. Hopefully other stuff is going on in the background.
    But what is the cost of placating Trump ?
    Does that require handing over large chunks of Ukraine, and crippling its ability to defend itself ?

    If we set up Ukraine to be invaded again, do you really think nothing will happen in that next few years ?
    And if Vance is the next president ?

    This invasion has cost us and Europe many, many billions. Another one will not be cheaper, and might cost more.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,532
    edited August 16
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    You said Sir Keir was “muscular” as well! Are these tough guys smothered in baby oil when you think of them?
    Hang on, Boris surely. And it was that Philip Tompkins not me.
    @kinabalu May 18

    "No messing about there. Polls will confirm (or not) but a word that probably leaps to many people's minds when thinking about Keir Starmer is "muscular". He'd take that, I reckon, if it turns out to be the case."

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5210589/#Comment_5210589
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,715

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    @Luckyguy1983 house?

    I find it interesting to hear people forgetting to ask what the Ukrainian people want.

    Mind you, I recall one of our resident Realist Regimentals telling us that a CNN poll was a “shitty poll” because it said the Ukrainians weren’t keen on the whole BeAPartOfRussia thing - even in the Eastern areas of Ukraine, which Russia claims
    Especially in the eastern part of Ukraine, which has watched with horror as Donetsk and Luhansk have been turned into lawless deserts. In the Baltic a large number of Russian speakers have joined the militia- they do not want to be "liberated" by Putins band of murderous thugs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    A couple of worth-a-listen bits from the Rest is Politics commentary:

    Bad 'Al on looking up all his diary entries about Vladimit Putin and how his technique has not changed a bit, and Tony Blair trying to reason with him about Chechnya in the noughties:

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1816

    Rory Stewart comparing Trump's perceptions of the world and policy to games of Risk and The Settlers of Catan he is playing with his children (nearly teen iirc):

    https://youtu.be/kdEgveREOKE?t=1219

    I'm not a fan of theirs, but that's actually quite a good episode.
    Interesting that Blair was played by Putin ("someone we can deal with") almost as well as Trump.

    All credit to the Russian sociopath, getting Trump to deal with him as though Russia is still America's equal is top level psychological manipulation.
    Trump is so far up Putin's arse, you'll have trouble working out where he ends and Putin begins!
    And no one knows what went on in the Beast.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not so bad for a couple of hours on a lazy Saturday afternoon - which I would otherwise have spent faffing about on here, probably
    It's more than I earned today, I'll give you that.

    Bit of cheap and cheerful clickbait?
    Started out that way, but became something more serious and considered

    I'm proud of my final line
    Was it "ENOUGH"?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,120

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia is holding Ukrainian land.

    How much of that should Russia give up for peace ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,592

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia has been illegally occupying Ukrainian land since 2014. Let's not forget the Georgian land occupied since 2008 and the Moldovan land occupied since 1990.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,553

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia should give up land as part of their reparations for the war. :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,641
    Welsh Fire extinguished....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,843

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    You said Sir Keir was “muscular” as well! Are these tough guys smothered in baby oil when you think of them?
    Hang on, Boris surely. And it was that Philip Tompkins not me.
    @kinabalu May 18

    "No messing about there. Polls will confirm (or not) but a word that probably leaps to many people's minds when thinking about Keir Starmer is "muscular". He'd take that, I reckon, if it turns out to be the case."

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5210589/#Comment_5210589
    Lol. Crazy guy, crazy comment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,641

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia should give up land as part of their reparations for the war. :)
    Russia gives up all land taken from Ukraine.

    Russia gets Alaska in return.

    Trump gets Nobel Peace Prize.

    Everybody happy...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia should give up land as part of their reparations for the war. :)
    I recall a strange lack of enthusiasm for my idea of giving Wales to Putin - from a LandForPeace Realist

    Perhaps it was because he lived in Wales?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,184
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Fiction writers don't do maths, surely?
    Only in the racier bits of the finance industry.
    Well I’ve just made several hundred quid writing about this little poll, this afternoon, for Tickler’s Weekly (Australian edition) so maybe my maths is not entirely shot

    That is to say, on seeing the poll I saw the underlying equation:

    Startling poll + my talent = money
    Several hundred pounds!
    Not so bad for a couple of hours on a lazy Saturday afternoon - which I would otherwise have spent faffing about on here, probably
    It's more than I earned today, I'll give you that.

    Bit of cheap and cheerful clickbait?
    Started out that way, but became something more serious and considered

    I'm proud of my final line
    Was it "ENOUGH"?
    BRACE!

    Actually it is interesting, the process

    I've noticed of late the LESS time I spend on a column, the better

    That is to say: if I am in the zone I can write one in 40 minutes (as I did today). Then I spend an hour or so browsing 1960s Murano glass, obviously racist news, and softcore VPN'd porn on the net, then I return to the column and polish it up in 10-20 minutes. And it's good to go

    So actually an hour's work. For what most people earn in a day if they are pretty lucky. And often PB has done most of the research and argumentation for me, by debating the point

    I recommend this line of work, it's fun

    However if a column takes me hours and hours, that's a sure sign it will be less good, perhaps even crap
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,345

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Well said.

    Except I would have said 'Go and jump in a toxic lake.'
    How much land should Russia give up for peace ?
    How much current IRA activity should the UK ignore for peace? How many past IRA murderers should the UK Government brush under the carpet for piece? Peace deals aren't satisfactory - by their nature they involve compromise with the enemy, often unjust compromise.
    So how much land should Russia give up for peace ?

    And it isn't peace if its just the next step for further war.
    Ukraine isn't holding any Russian land (as I understand it), so Russia doesn't have to give up any land.
    Russia should give up land as part of their reparations for the war. :)
    I recall a strange lack of enthusiasm for my idea of giving Wales to Putin - from a LandForPeace Realist

    Perhaps it was because he lived in Wales?
    Or perhaps it's because he isn't currently occupying Wales?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,284
    Again, the US commitment to any deal, after it is done, is worth precisely nothing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t
    A former US Nato representative says it's "just not credible" that Ukraine could be offered the protection of Nato members after a peace deal is agreed without actually joining the organisation formally.
    As our Ukraine correspondent wrote earlier, there have been reports that security guarantees for Ukraine were discussed in Alaska which could see Ukraine’s allies, including the US, promising to intervene if Russia decided to attack it again.
    But, speaking a bit earlier to the BBC News channel, former US Nato representative Ivo Daalder challenged the feasibility of the security plan.
    "I don't believe that President Trump is willing to go to war against Russia to protect Ukraine," he says, observing that none of the Nato members were willing to do so either when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
    "No one in Europe today trusts Donald Trump's US to defend them if they were attacked, and no-one in Ukraine is going to believe that unless and until they are the member of the one organisation that exists explicitly for that purpose," he explains...


    Why are we allowing Trump to decide our future ?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,321
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Keir has spoken.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1956692156099244329

    To give him credit where it’s due, this is one issue on which he can’t really be faulted. Thankfully UK support for Ukraine is almost universal and across party lines.

    Thankfully Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, I suspect the old commie’s attitude to this conflict would have been quite different.

    Except the party leading the polls.
    And this is the curious thing.

    Its perfectly possible to have a pro-western, strong defence patriotic, reform as an alt-right party.

    In fact it would likely have greater potential support than the anti-western putinism that Farage dabbles in.

    The putinism of the Christian ethno-nationalists is even more baffling as it is Putin's strategy to encourage more migration to the western world.
    It's because they see Russia as a bastion of traditional values. It's white, Christian, antiwoke. In their mental word-cloud "muscular" and "unpolluted" would be prominent.
    You said Sir Keir was “muscular” as well! Are these tough guys smothered in baby oil when you think of them?
    Hang on, Boris surely. And it was that Philip Tompkins not me.
    I am sure you said people would start to associate the word "muscular" with Sir Keir if he kept sending out those tough guy tweets
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