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The Times They Are A’Changing – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,902

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    A revival of muscular Christianity - the church of the Templars, of Arthur and Lancelot, of Milton and Newman - is exactly what Britain needs. It is the necessary first step to regaining our cultural self confidence

    Well a broken and contrite heart the Lord will not despise.

    Which of the deadly sins are you going to repent of first? Pride? Wrath? Lust? Greed? Gluttony? Envy or Sloth?

    Hypocrisy is not one if the big ones but we should still try and avoid it if we can.
    Is someone going to explain to Leon what the phrase means?

    Clue: Tom Brown's schooldays, with mens sana in corpore sano.

    (Enjoy the cold showers.)
    And a spot of the old flage, this hurts me more than it hurts you, stuff?

    Erm. Um.

    Leon is going to volunteer to run boys' clubs and manage parish football leagues in the slums of London, in between holding prayer meetings on the evils of alcohol and other drugs?
    And self-abuse. Maybe he can get his stalker in to explain the dangers.

    (Actually, a few too many public school Muscular Christians running the CofE is one of its current problems, I reckon.)
    Oh, thanks. I forgot the cold baths. Very important.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,902
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Of all the stupid fucking shit I've read over the years on here, and that includes kjh toying with the idea of buying a Panther Kallista, the idea that it was a VVP body double in Alaska is stupidest fuckingest shit of all.

    @Dura_Ace - It got worse. I almost bought a Panther J72 as well. I was within a hairs breadth. We were within £1000 of agreeing on a price. I then bought the Cobra 427 replica instead. I think you were almost as dismissive of that, although mainly on safety grounds (it is never going out in the wet), rather than me doing a Noddy impersonation.
    Could be worse Mathewson’s have a Morris Minor Traveller up for sale and Mrs Eek wants it
    You have to completely rebuild the fucking things every 10-15 years. Total garbage. Watch the Cambrian Classics videos on replacing the timber bits then do anything else with your money.

    They are also really slow, dangerous, uncomfortable and unreliable.

    Apart from all that, great fucking motors.
    Tell me something I don't already know - the last thing I want is a classic car but my wife has no taste or concept of money pits...
    Tell her you are getting a mistress instead. It will prove to be cheaper and less painful...
    Wouldn't the Morris Minor help with that given according to @Dura_Ace it's a 'great fucking motor?'
    For that purpose you are better with the MM Traveller, and an old mattress in the back, a classic passion wagon.

    Chap round the back has a Traveller - he seems to keep it in the garage all the time, presumably worried about wet rot.

    Though apparently some of them had plastic rather than real wood. Cheating.

    Mind, another chap in the same street has wee grey Fergie tractors in his garage. Tastes vary.
    Certainly having wee grey Fergie tractors rather than normal sexual partners, garage or elsewhere, is an - individual - taste?
    Ambiguity is the sin that always gets found out on PB.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365
    MattW said:

    Slightly serious question:

    What offices can you still run for under our electoral system if you are a disqualified Director, or have previously received a 16-month prison sentence?

    *innocent face*

    I’d have never expect that of you Matt !!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,641
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    Atheists Don't Poll?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,610
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    edited August 16
    Are these GDP data for Germany correct?

    2025q2 -0.1%
    2025q1 +0.3%
    2024q4 +0.2%
    2024q3 0.0%
    2024q2 -0.3%
    2024q1 -0.1%
    2023q4 -0.3%
    2023q3 0.0%
    2023q2 -0.1%
    2023q1 -0.5%
    2022q4 -0.3%
    2022q3 +0.3%

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth

    Perhaps Germany should join the Single Market. Oh wait ...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    West Brom top of the table! Boing boing!!!!
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365
    Mortimer said:

    West Brom top of the table! Boing boing!!!!

    They can thank Blues for letting them have Bielik.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    edited August 16
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I see our low IQ pollsters are getting overexcited based on a subsamples as low as 122 of 18 to 24 year olds.

    Belief has also surged in older people, just not as much


    “Among 25-49-year-olds, belief has risen more modestly, from 21 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period

    Which is still an incredible rise

    That said, this poll repeats the dubious assertion about a massive rise in churchgoing - which has been plausibly questioned by many

    So 🤷🏼‍♂️
    This looks like it's the underlying survey;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

    Six monthly tracker, and both the 16 and 45 are oddly cherry-picked. (The most recent survey is back to 37-32 belief.)

    Does look like something interesting happened between August 2022 and February 2023, but not on the scale suggested here. Maybe the rapid fall of Truss caused people to say "Thank God for that".
    Yes, that's a weird selection. But let's disentangle them (with the SUBSET CAVEAT in mind)

    In August 2019, a total of 39% of young people believed either in God/Gods or a "spiritual greater power". Whereas 42% declared total atheism - the atheists had a narrow but clear majority

    Now? In August 2025? A total of 55% of young people believe in God/Gods or a spiritual greater power, and just 32% are convinced atheists, the believers are now in the majority and by a big distance

    That is a profound change, and does suggest Something is Going On

    What’s going on, as usual, is your inability to understand basic maths.
    Look at the graph

    On the 12th August 2019, of 18-24 year olds (so, yes, a SUBSET):

    42% said I do not believe in any God/s or spiritual power

    22% said I believe in God/s

    17% said I do not believe in God/s but I do believe in a spiritual higher power

    Five years later on 6th August 2025:

    37% said I believe in God/s (up 15%)

    18% said I I do not believe in God/s but I do believe in a spiritual higher power (up 1%)

    32% said I do not believe in any of this nonsense (down 10%)

    I have excluded Don't Knows coz agnostics are boring


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/brits-beliefs-about-gods?crossBreak=1824

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,845
    edited August 16
    I thought we hadn't had one of these stories for a while

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/16/new-zealand-woman-and-six-year-old-son-released-from-us-detention

    And of course you dig into the details and find she had a visa to work and a visa to live and she now admits she didn't pay to renew the visa to actually live in the US because it seemed expensive and didn't think it was necessary. Living in the Pacific north West you will be well aware there are lots of Canadians come across that border with permission to work but not live in the US.

    The detention is OTT, but people seem to haven't clocked that just ignoring the visa rules in the US is no longer an option. It's more than likely the same would have happened at any point in the past because you will be flagged as an overstayed your legal rights to be in the US.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,200
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Slightly serious question:

    What offices can you still run for under our electoral system if you are a disqualified Director, or have previously received a 16-month prison sentence?

    *innocent face*

    I’d have never expect that of you Matt !!!!
    I'm feeling Antsy.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
  • eekeek Posts: 30,946
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    Putin and sincere are words that don't belong in the same sentence...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    Yup.

    At the final Japanese war cabinet meeting they faced the following

    1) the idea that the Americans could only produce one atomic bomb every 2 years was exploded (ha!) by Nagasaki. Weekly was apparently possible
    2) Le May was running low on cities to burn down conventionally.
    3) the Japanese merchant marine had been sunk. All of it. Trade had stopped.
    4) the Japanese navy wasn’t much better off.
    5) a famine, caused by a poor harvest, was coming for the winter of 1945
    6) the Allied invasion was imminent
    7) allied aircraft anger air superiority over much of Japan itself. Allied battleships were bombarding the coast from in sight of the shore.
    8) the Russians had declared war and were chopping through the Japanese army like a chainsaw through cheese.

    The war cabinet was split 3-3 on

    1) continue the war and lose, dying to last Japanese civilian
    2) surrender

    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,550
    Mortimer said:

    West Brom top of the table! Boing boing!!!!

    We were for he first quarter of last season. It's the hope that kills you!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,039
    Dura_Ace said:

    Of all the stupid fucking shit I've read over the years on here, and that includes kjh toying with the idea of buying a Panther Kallista, the idea that it was a VVP body double in Alaska is stupidest fuckingest shit of all.

    Where do you think he keeps his body double, then?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    edited August 16

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    Yup.

    At the final Japanese war cabinet meeting they faced the following

    1) the idea that the Americans could only produce one atomic bomb every 2 years was exploded (ha!) by Nagasaki. Weekly was apparently possible
    2) Le May was running low on cities to burn down conventionally.
    3) the Japanese merchant marine had been sunk. All of it. Trade had stopped.
    4) the Japanese navy wasn’t much better off.
    5) a famine, caused by a poor harvest, was coming for the winter of 1945
    6) the Allied invasion was imminent
    7) allied aircraft anger air superiority over much of Japan itself. Allied battleships were bombarding the coast from in sight of the shore.
    8) the Russians had declared war and were chopping through the Japanese army like a chainsaw through cheese.

    The war cabinet was split 3-3 on

    1) continue the war and lose, dying to last Japanese civilian
    2) surrender

    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.
    I didn't know that fascinating detail about Hirohito

    I met* his granddaughter last year, by the way, as she walked from consulting with her literally divine great ggggggg grandmother, the sun goddess, at the Ise Shrine

    When I say "met" I mean she walked right past me, followed by a dozen Shinto priests, wearing enormous orange velvet Crocs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,039
    Leon said:

    Yes yes subsample alert but this is an absolutely astonishing statistic. Indeed it’s so astonishing I question it

    But it is from YouGov


    🚨NEW: Belief in God among 18-24 year-olds has tripled in 4 years

    2021: 16%
    2025: 45% (+29)

    [@YouGov]

    https://x.com/gbpolitcs/status/1956671810235183402?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    If this is true, what in God’s name is going on? Belief is also surging in 24-45 age brackets, tho not as explosively

    You yourself have lamented people in the UK becoming stupider. Could this be one consequence?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Yes yes subsample alert but this is an absolutely astonishing statistic. Indeed it’s so astonishing I question it

    But it is from YouGov


    🚨NEW: Belief in God among 18-24 year-olds has tripled in 4 years

    2021: 16%
    2025: 45% (+29)

    [@YouGov]

    https://x.com/gbpolitcs/status/1956671810235183402?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    If this is true, what in God’s name is going on? Belief is also surging in 24-45 age brackets, tho not as explosively

    You yourself have lamented people in the UK becoming stupider. Could this be one consequence?
    That also occurred to me. Very definitely, that occurred to me
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433
    Leon said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    Yup.

    At the final Japanese war cabinet meeting they faced the following

    1) the idea that the Americans could only produce one atomic bomb every 2 years was exploded (ha!) by Nagasaki. Weekly was apparently possible
    2) Le May was running low on cities to burn down conventionally.
    3) the Japanese merchant marine had been sunk. All of it. Trade had stopped.
    4) the Japanese navy wasn’t much better off.
    5) a famine, caused by a poor harvest, was coming for the winter of 1945
    6) the Allied invasion was imminent
    7) allied aircraft anger air superiority over much of Japan itself. Allied battleships were bombarding the coast from in sight of the shore.
    8) the Russians had declared war and were chopping through the Japanese army like a chainsaw through cheese.

    The war cabinet was split 3-3 on

    1) continue the war and lose, dying to last Japanese civilian
    2) surrender

    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.
    I didn't know that fascinating detail about Hirohito

    I met* his granddaughter last year, by the way, as she walked from consulting with her literally divine great ggggggg grandmother, the sun goddess, at the Ise Shrine

    When I say "met" I mean she walked right past me, followed by a dozen Shinto priests, wearing enormous orange velvet Crocs
    Leon said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    Yup.

    At the final Japanese war cabinet meeting they faced the following

    1) the idea that the Americans could only produce one atomic bomb every 2 years was exploded (ha!) by Nagasaki. Weekly was apparently possible
    2) Le May was running low on cities to burn down conventionally.
    3) the Japanese merchant marine had been sunk. All of it. Trade had stopped.
    4) the Japanese navy wasn’t much better off.
    5) a famine, caused by a poor harvest, was coming for the winter of 1945
    6) the Allied invasion was imminent
    7) allied aircraft anger air superiority over much of Japan itself. Allied battleships were bombarding the coast from in sight of the shore.
    8) the Russians had declared war and were chopping through the Japanese army like a chainsaw through cheese.

    The war cabinet was split 3-3 on

    1) continue the war and lose, dying to last Japanese civilian
    2) surrender

    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.
    I didn't know that fascinating detail about Hirohito

    I met* his granddaughter last year, by the way, as she walked from consulting with her literally divine great ggggggg grandmother, the sun goddess, at the Ise Shrine

    When I say "met" I mean she walked right past me, followed by a dozen Shinto priests, wearing enormous orange velvet Crocs
    Interesting you didn’t know.

    It was the reason the coup attempt happened, immediately afterwards.

    It also sparked a major fissure between the ultra militarists and The Throne. Which led to Hirohito throwing his weight behind the more democratic elements post war - which is one of the reason that keeping the Emperor was acceptable to the US, in the end.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    Thats where the defensive belt remains - ie Putin wants the equiv of the Sudentenland - Ukraine would be foolish if they accepted that. It would mean the end of Ukraine within a decade.

    They should fight on.
    Yup. It’s about having a better place to kick off from, next time. See the German peace plans for Russia and France in WWI.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,501
    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    Thats where the defensive belt remains - ie Putin wants the equiv of the Sudentenland - Ukraine would be foolish if they accepted that. It would mean the end of Ukraine within a decade.

    They should fight on.
    BTW, excellent discussion of this here:

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/critical-importance-ukraine’s-fortress-belt-donetsk-oblast
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,845
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
    If there is the possibility for some more freebie tiny toiletries count him in.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433
    On the Japanese surrender

    https://amzn.eu/d/ifJZttw

    Is well worth a read. It started out as a memoir by a crew member of the last conventional B29 raid on Japan - after the atomic bombs. But his research got deeper, got help from professional historians and did some primary research on what was happening in the Japanese high command at the same time.

    So he recounts the sequence of events in realtime. Which included the blackout in Tokyo, caused by the raid he was flying in, which caused the coup against the Emperor to fail.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    Thats where the defensive belt remains - ie Putin wants the equiv of the Sudentenland - Ukraine would be foolish if they accepted that. It would mean the end of Ukraine within a decade.

    They should fight on.
    Indeed.

    Low commitment people with substandard IQ think or pretend it will all go away and that they wont have to think about the issue any more.

    They're probably think if Ukraine would just agree to be genocided then we could have lower energy bills and defence cuts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,845
    The names, passport information and Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (Arap) details of up to 3,700 Afghans have potentially been compromised after Inflite The Jet Centre, which provides ground-handling services for flights at London Stansted airport, suffered a cyber-security incident.

    Now of course this won’t happen to all those uploading their ids and mugs to the third party providers for authentication under the OSA.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,501
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
    It should be right at the top of every European leader’s inbox.

    It shouldn’t take much creative military accounting to agree to send a huge amount of US surplus kit on the way to Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are already doing a pretty good job of ensuring not a lot of O&G sites, military factories, nor key railway lines West of the Urals will be there by the end of this year, as the Russian economy is now seriously falling apart.

    Squeeze the Hell out of Russia until Putin surrenders, then give Trump his peace prize and we can all go back to domestic politics for a bit.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365
    I see the hapless, Frank Spencer like, Newcastle managed to scrape a draw with the Villa.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    edited August 16



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,835
    edited August 16

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,349
    Cloudflare – wasn't Cloudflare implicated during a recent pb outage?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,349
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
    It should be right at the top of every European leader’s inbox.

    It shouldn’t take much creative military accounting to agree to send a huge amount of US surplus kit on the way to Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are already doing a pretty good job of ensuring not a lot of O&G sites, military factories, nor key railway lines West of the Urals will be there by the end of this year, as the Russian economy is now seriously falling apart.

    Squeeze the Hell out of Russia until Putin surrenders, then give Trump his peace prize and we can all go back to domestic politics for a bit.
    Trouble is, however many military targets Ukraine KOs, Russia still occupies large parts of Ukraine.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365

    Cloudflare – wasn't Cloudflare implicated during a recent pb outage?

    Wasn’t that Crowdstrike ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    The substandard IQ, low commitment strategy for Ukraine's defence:

    1) Tell Ukraine to give up its defensive positions.

    2) Say we should shore up Ukraine's defences at some point in the future.

    3) Yearn for a politician with Putinist sympathies to become prime minister.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,143
    edited August 16
    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,349

    The names, passport information and Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (Arap) details of up to 3,700 Afghans have potentially been compromised after Inflite The Jet Centre, which provides ground-handling services for flights at London Stansted airport, suffered a cyber-security incident.

    Now of course this won’t happen to all those uploading their ids and mugs to the third party providers for authentication under the OSA.

    Meanwhile, American security says hold my beer:-

    Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit
    https://www.npr.org/2025/08/16/nx-s1-5504196/trump-putin-summit-documents-left-behind
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,562

    I’ve read the header and text. I like pineapple on pizza. That’s all I understood.

    The site you are looking at is not one bit, but several bits. Some of those bits are currently held in one place. @rcs1000 is moving them to another place. He's doing it in three stages: firstly the numeric address of the site, then the registration of the alphabetic address of the site. then another thing called "proxying", which I don't understand.

    Websites like PB have two addresses: the alphabetic one ("politicalbetting.com") and the numeric one (34.105.39.7 in this case). The latter has to be registered for the thing to work.

    When the relevant bits of PB have been moved to its new location, the mods believe that PB will be quicker and less liable to collapse
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,349
    Taz said:

    Cloudflare – wasn't Cloudflare implicated during a recent pb outage?

    Wasn’t that Crowdstrike ?
    iirc there were two or three problems running concurrently.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,460
    Here are three counter proposals:
    1. The Ukrainians should demand a free, internationally supervised, election in Belarus.
    2. The Ukrainians should demand control of St. Petersburg for the next 10 years, at which time there will be a referendum on them keeping it.
    3. Putin must agree to war crimes trials for the worst of his army.

    No doubt many of you can think of alternate and/or additional demands.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,609
    ...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,115
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
    Its not going to be long before the amount we pay foreigners in interest is greater than the amount we're newly borrowing from foreigners.

    Meanwhile the Q2 trade balance has worsened:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    It was announced on Wednesday and, as always, not reported on by the media.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,365
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
    Yet when faced with a small cut to the rise of the benefits bill, not even a real terms cut, Labour folded in the face of pressure from backbenchers.

    This country is fucked, deservedly so.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,015
    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
    Oh look another Keir rhyme. Have a biscuit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,641

    Here are three counter proposals:
    1. The Ukrainians should demand a free, internationally supervised, election in Belarus.
    2. The Ukrainians should demand control of St. Petersburg for the next 10 years, at which time there will be a referendum on them keeping it.
    3. Putin must agree to war crimes trials for the worst of his army.

    No doubt many of you can think of alternate and/or additional demands.

    Demanding the Russians drop the central spans of the Crimean Bridge would be a good one...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,609
    @helenkennedy.bsky.social‬

    These dipshits left schedules and protocol details on a printer in Alaska. Nothing earthshaking - menu for a lunch that didn't happen, seating chart for the bilat, revelation that Trump gave Putin a present - but it's yet another embarrassing opsec fail for a guy who ran on protecting secret info.

    https://bsky.app/profile/helenkennedy.bsky.social/post/3lwjk42rb5c2i
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    viewcode said:

    I’ve read the header and text. I like pineapple on pizza. That’s all I understood.

    The site you are looking at is not one bit, but several bits. Some of those bits are currently held in one place. @rcs1000 is moving them to another place. He's doing it in three stages: firstly the numeric address of the site, then the registration of the alphabetic address of the site. then another thing called "proxying", which I don't understand.

    Websites like PB have two addresses: the alphabetic one ("politicalbetting.com") and the numeric one (34.105.39.7 in this case). The latter has to be registered for the thing to work.

    When the relevant bits of PB have been moved to its new location, the mods believe that PB will be quicker and less liable to collapse
    Great development but just to say I have never found the site slow or unreliable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,143
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
    Yet when faced with a small cut to the rise of the benefits bill, not even a real terms cut, Labour folded in the face of pressure from backbenchers.

    This country is fucked, deservedly so.
    The limits on our autonomy were Liz Truss's one significant contribution during her short, benighted Premiership. We are so much closer to the edge than we want to acknowledge. And we are getting closer every month.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,281



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Leon can't tell the difference between the Sudetenland and Korea when he chucks out daft metaphors.

    And it's not "BREAKING"; the idea that Ukraine hand over its hard built fortifications in exchange for a ceasefire was what Witkoff reported after his visit to Putin.
    With the (mistaken) addition that Russia would offer territory in return.

    It was a non starter then, and is still.

    As for "if this is sincere", Putin has broken just about every agreement he's entered into.

    The old Leon was smarter than this one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    They are up for a deal. They'd accept loss of territory if the residual was given meaningful security guarantees leading to a European not Russian future. But it's not on offer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,445
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
    Its not going to be long before the amount we pay foreigners in interest is greater than the amount we're newly borrowing from foreigners.

    Meanwhile the Q2 trade balance has worsened:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    It was announced on Wednesday and, as always, not reported on by the media.
    Our utter indifference to our ongoing trade deficit is simply bewildering. The fact that it is ignored by the same people who object to our companies and assets being sold to foreigners is just laughable. The consequences for the standard of living of people in this country is severe, more and more of what profits we do earn go abroad.

    And no one wants to talk about it. Not anywhere on the political spectrum that I can detect. It is ignored because it requires hard choices. A reduction in consumption, more investment in output, a reduction in borrowing by both the general public and the government, especially the government. Things simply cannot go on like this. Whether it is a fiscal crisis in the gilt market or a monetary crisis caused by inflation something is going to have to change soon and it is not going to be pleasant.

    Politically, it's taboo because everyone is complicit and has been for decades.

    Parties in government have gone along with it, because it allows them to tell voters that they're richer than they really are. Parties who want to be in government have to go along with it, or they don't get to be in government. Voters go along with it, because who wants to admit that we're not as rich as we would like?

    I wouldn't mind so much if I could see where the money all went.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,015
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    They are up for a deal. They'd accept loss of territory if the residual was given meaningful security guarantees leading to a European not Russian future. But it's not on offer.
    I think it is too early to say that that’s not on offer. It might be.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Can’t believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer who sobbed and blubbed in the House of Commons because mean people said hurty things turns out to be catastrophically useless at running the UK economy

    “The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour

    The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.

    The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.

    The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.

    This should NOT be happening”


    https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The Bank were wrong to cut interest rates at a time when inflation is over target and rising. The Bank are a bit like the Americans who want to make up for being late in the last 2 world wars by being really early the next time. They failed to raise interest rates fast enough and now they are cutting them too quickly. A genuinely independent Bank looking at our monetary and fiscal position critically simply would not be doing this.

    Our gilt rates are a massive concern, in some ways an even greater concern than what Reeves is going to have to do to keep her financial rules (daft though they are) at the budget. We are basically being assessed as an ever increasing risk and borrowing is becoming ever more expensive as a result. Those who do not see the urgency of radical steps to reduce our borrowing requirement in the face of this are frankly simply delusional.
    The tendency to overcompensate for previous errors isn't due to lack of independence, I don't think. It's more a general human failing from which BoE decision makers are not exempt.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,594
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    He hasn’t managed to take it in 11 years of war
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,594

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    Yup.

    At the final Japanese war cabinet meeting they faced the following

    1) the idea that the Americans could only produce one atomic bomb every 2 years was exploded (ha!) by Nagasaki. Weekly was apparently possible
    2) Le May was running low on cities to burn down conventionally.
    3) the Japanese merchant marine had been sunk. All of it. Trade had stopped.
    4) the Japanese navy wasn’t much better off.
    5) a famine, caused by a poor harvest, was coming for the winter of 1945
    6) the Allied invasion was imminent
    7) allied aircraft anger air superiority over much of Japan itself. Allied battleships were bombarding the coast from in sight of the shore.
    8) the Russians had declared war and were chopping through the Japanese army like a chainsaw through cheese.

    The war cabinet was split 3-3 on

    1) continue the war and lose, dying to last Japanese civilian
    2) surrender

    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.
    Was he “the Hirohito”? I assumed it was his first name (ie “Hirohito, the Emperor”)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,433

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The problem with that school of thought is that it is directly contradicted by the actual history.

    This SoT used the discussions of *what would follow from the dropping of the bombs* to claim that one item on the list was the primary reason for dropping the bombs.

    As Richard Rhodes detailed, the reason for dropping the bomb was actually that no one decided not to drop them. The assumption from the start of the Manhattan Project was that 2 bombs on Nazi Germany or Japan would end the war. 2 because physicists around the world thought it might take years to make each bomb. 2 would prove a production line existed.

    Germany surrendered before the bomb was ready. So the target became Japan, automatically.

    The bombs existed, they were assumed to end the war, they were dropped to do so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    They are up for a deal. They'd accept loss of territory if the residual was given meaningful security guarantees leading to a European not Russian future. But it's not on offer.
    I think it is too early to say that that’s not on offer. It might be.
    It looks a distant prospect to me given the mindsets of Trump and Putin.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    edited August 16

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,552
    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,015
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    Well yes. Most people would pick up a rifle to defend their families. There are a few out there but I’ve never met a Brit prepared to die for Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas.

    If a deal is struck, we then enter a period of serious work, to shore up continental defence capabilities. But with a strong enough conventional deterrent then in place, western civ would be in a far less precarious place than it is today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,039

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    The new Neal Stephenson trilogy - Bomblight - is all about the Russian atomic bomb project.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    Bet it got them working harder though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,181
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    Which is why I said "we must hasten to shore up Ukrainian defences, so Putin cannot do it again, as he would face certain defeat"

    Does that sound like I am convinced that all will be "sweetness and light" at the end of this? No, it does not. So stop creating straw men

    As for Putin's offer, I am not saying Ukraine must now instantly agree to all of Putin's terms - that would be absurd - I am saying that as an offer is being made, perhaps there is a deal to be done

    The fact is, neither side can win this war. Putin is not strong enough to take all of Ukraine, but - crucially - nor can he be defeated. Why? Because

    1. he has nukes

    and, apparently forgotten by all the tiny tin soldiers on PB -

    2. China, easily as powerful here as America, has said it will not allow Russia to be defeated

    "China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says"

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl

    China is the world's largest trading economy, the largest economy by PPP, and the world's biggest manufacturer. If it wants to keep Russia in the war it can do so for eternity, providing materiel and money

    So there we have it. Neither side can win. Putin can't beat Ukraine backed by Europe, but Ukraine, no matter how much help we give it, cannot beat Russia backed by China

    Ergo, at some point a deal will be done. The question is, where and when. Perhaps starting here and now would save some lives
  • eekeek Posts: 30,946
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    The new Neal Stephenson trilogy - Bomblight - is all about the Russian atomic bomb project.
    Are you sure that's a Neal Stephenson story - book 1 looks to be 1/3 of his normal length...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,838
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    Well yes. Most people would pick up a rifle to defend their families. There are a few out there but I’ve never met a Brit prepared to die for Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas.

    If a deal is struck, we then enter a period of serious work, to shore up continental defence capabilities. But with a strong enough conventional deterrent then in place, western civ would be in a far less precarious place than it is today.
    Which is why "go and enlist then" is not much of a riposte to somebody arguing that for Ukraine no deal is better than a bad deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,281
    edited August 16
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,281
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    A discursive piece by old c-word (contrarian) Peter Hitchens, sometimes eccentric but usually interesting. I hadn’t heard of the theory that Japan surrendered to stop Russia/USSR gobbling up more Japanese territory, quite convincing.

    https://x.com/clarkemicah/status/1956662486301614417?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The Russian invasion of Japan is a frequently-given reason for Japan ending the war, especially amongst the anti-nuke people.

    IMV, and IANAE etc etc, the reason they capitulated was *everything* they faced. Japan was facing obliteration in several different ways: from a Soviet invasion; an American/allied invasion; firebombing of its cities and industry, the effective loss of China and Korea (because of sea blockade) and finally, the new weapon. The emperor and the army could probably believe they could withstand and fight off one or two of these; but all of them, at once?

    And even then, there were many who still thought it was the wrong thing to do. Hence the attempted coup and the Kyojo incident.
    There is also a school of thought that the primary reason for dropping the atomic bombs was to sent a message to the Soviets rather than to hasten the end of the war. It was obvious that Japan was beaten, and the idea that the Japanese would otherwise fight on to the last civilian was more propaganda than actual military thinking.
    The message it sent to the Soviets was "you guys had better get some of these too and sharpish".
    Except the Soviet nuclear weapons program started in 1942, spurred in part by a scientist noticing that the Yanks and British had stopped publishing scientific papers on atomic science. As ever, his spies were also rather helpful.
    The new Neal Stephenson trilogy - Bomblight - is all about the Russian atomic bomb project.
    Any good ?
    Or should we just reread Rhodes' Dark Sun ?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,015
    edited August 16
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,308



    The Hirohito broke the unwritten rules and voted.

    Was he “the Hirohito”? I assumed it was his first name (ie “Hirohito, the Emperor”)
    It was his only name -- the Japanese imperial dynasty has no name, and its members have no surname/family name. Since he's dead, you can also now refer to him by his era name (Emperor Shōwa).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,853
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    The only sensible thing for Putin to do is to settle for Crimea and whatever scraps are Russian favourable. If a deal is struck which leaves a whole load of Ukrainians focused on reclaiming territory then eventually they will do just that.

    Meanwhile it baffles me that we in the UK allow Russians to swan about, trade in their usual corrupt manner, and generally look like a Tesco bag with a wallet in our country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    turncoat
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    that like the last guarantee that was fecking useless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,281
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Boots in the ground, or it's an empty promise.
    We've bern here before (Minsk, etc) to know that promises mean nothing.
    And a similar promise from Trump less than nothing.

    If Europe designs a deal which Europe has the capacity to enforce, then that might be a different matter.
    Trump has made it clear, repeatedly, that the US won't take any kind of military role.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,562
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    Which is why I said "we must hasten to shore up Ukrainian defences, so Putin cannot do it again, as he would face certain defeat"

    Does that sound like I am convinced that all will be "sweetness and light" at the end of this? No, it does not. So stop creating straw men

    As for Putin's offer, I am not saying Ukraine must now instantly agree to all of Putin's terms - that would be absurd - I am saying that as an offer is being made, perhaps there is a deal to be done

    The fact is, neither side can win this war. Putin is not strong enough to take all of Ukraine, but - crucially - nor can he be defeated. Why? Because

    1. he has nukes

    and, apparently forgotten by all the tiny tin soldiers on PB -

    2. China, easily as powerful here as America, has said it will not allow Russia to be defeated

    "China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says"

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl

    China is the world's largest trading economy, the largest economy by PPP, and the world's biggest manufacturer. If it wants to keep Russia in the war it can do so for eternity, providing materiel and money

    So there we have it. Neither side can win. Putin can't beat Ukraine backed by Europe, but Ukraine, no matter how much help we give it, cannot beat Russia backed by China

    Ergo, at some point a deal will be done. The question is, where and when. Perhaps starting here and now would save some lives
    you would have been waving a bit of paper in 1938, how cowardly and pathetic can you be.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important to you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    Luckily it is feck all to do with you and also that Ukranians are not yellow belly cowards who would give up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,281
    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Effectively it's "here's a deal I made with my friend Vlad. You (Europe) get to commit tens of thousands of men, and billions in armament, to enforce it.
    We'll give you moral support."

    That makes zero sense.

    If we have the capacity to enforce the deal, we should negotiate it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,501
    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Something of which the Ukrainians are well aware. They’ll want to see exactly what the security guarantees look like in practice - in terms of border walls, air and ground defences, and peacekeeping troops on the ground.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,885
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Something of which the Ukrainians are well aware. They’ll want to see exactly what the security guarantees look like in practice - in terms of border walls, air and ground defences, and peacekeeping troops on the ground.
    I can tell them now. There won't be any.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,951
    "Hackers capture personal data of former Tory ministers, British troops and thousands of Afghans allies in latest Ministry of Defence blunder
    By David Williams"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15005041/Hackers-personal-data-former-Tory-ministers-British-troops-thousands-Afghans-allies-latest-Ministry-Defence-blunder.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    they had guarantee before and US and UK welched on it , same would happen again when the arsescame back in a year or two and they have all the Ukraine defenses, bollox offer
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,332
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Effectively it's "here's a deal I made with my friend Vlad. You (Europe) get to commit tens of thousands of men, and billions in armament, to enforce it.
    We'll give you moral support."

    That makes zero sense.

    If we have the capacity to enforce the deal, we should negotiate it.
    That will probably be the case. We i.e. Europe, need to treat Trump’s America as the scumbags they are.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Zelensky and an unspecified number of European leaders expected to travel to Washington for a meeting with US delegation including Trump on Monday. Telegraph reporting.

    Will that include Never Here Keir, I wonder?
    he will be there grovelling and butt licking Trump as usual
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,741
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,053
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yeard away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Stop you're self-satisfied self-pity.

    Wars are are bad but sometimes they have to be fought.

    And its a lot better for the Ukrainians to fight this war now than after giving Russia a few years to recover,

    Want some proof ?

    Then think about this:

    Do you think that a PM Farage, who you so yearn for, would send the British military to defence Ukraine from another Russian invasion ?

    No he wouldn't and we all know it.

    So stop all your mealy-mouthed mendacity about shoring up defences.

    You don't want to shore up Ukraine's defences, you want to give then to Russia.

    Off you go then, Sergeant Small Dick Energy: go join the foreign legion in Kherson. They are there, including Brits - I met a couple on my travels

    If you are so determined to sacrifice lives for this purpose, as it is so important tou you that the war continues, I suggest you have a bash, yourself
    I would fight and rush death to prevent the Russian invasion of Britain.

    You seem to be under the mistaken impression that after Russia wins, all is sweetness and light.
    A Korea style armistice only works if there is credible deterrence of a repeat invasion.

    Surrendering Ukraine's most defensible fortifications in return for little more than a promise, from a guy who has broken every one he's made, does absolutely nothing to provide that.

    Trump's US has been crystal clear that it won't provide any of that future deterrence, or a tingle US soldier in Ukraine.
    The only conceivable deal can obviously be negotiated only with Europe.

    For now Putin refuses to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation, has refused every offer of direct discussions with Zelensky (whom he's still trying to murder), and continues demanding further territory be given to him.

    Any peace starts with Europe actually getting its act together; it won't come from anything designed by Putin. Or for that matter, Trump.
    Torygraph:

    US ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, Merz says

    The United States is ready to be part of security guarantees for Ukraine, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

    Mr Merz was speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF after being briefed together with other European leaders by Donald Trump on his talks with Vladimir Putin.
    Ukraine had security guarantees after it gave away its nukes. They were meaningless. So will these be.
    Something of which the Ukrainians are well aware. They’ll want to see exactly what the security guarantees look like in practice - in terms of border walls, air and ground defences, and peacekeeping troops on the ground.
    I can tell them now. There won't be any.
    To be fair to Trump that is not quite accurate. He may well generously offer security guarantees he will immediately renege on.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,015
    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Putin demands Ukraine surrender Donetsk in exchange for peace


    Telegraph


    If that is correct, and Putin is "sincere", then the Ukes should take that. It's a dismal outcome, but continuing this horrific war is even worse

    I'd be slightly surprised in this is a genuine offer. Putin will have sacrificed 100,000s of his young men for a fairly impoverished coalmining bit of East Ukraine. Will his nationalist supporters buy that?

    So Russia cannot gain it so it wants to be given it.

    Continuing the war is far, far better as it steadily ruins the Russian economy, destroys the Russian military and kills hundred of thousands more Russians.

    The underlying fact that Europeans leaders need to remember is:

    THE MORE DEAD RUSSIANS THE BETTER.
    Er, it also means thousands of dead Ukrainians. Maybe tens of thousands

    End the war. Do a Korea
    By 'do a Korea' do you mean that £50k US troops will be stationed in Ukraine with nuclear weapons ?

    Nor did South Korea give up any land.

    You really do have a substandard IQ.

    Nor do you give a toss about the Ukrainians, if you did you would support them.

    Instead you just want to give Russia whatever it wants because you're bored and lack commitment.
    Sweet Jesus, are we back to "stop it, you're lowering PB morale"?

    I've been to Ukraine, during this war. Twice. You have not.

    I've been to Lviv, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Odesa, all over. I've been in trains and buses and taxis - and bomb shelters. I've been on an Odesan boulevard as a chunk of drone hit the road creating the loudest, most terrifying noise I've ever heard. I've watched from a hotel balcony as Putin tried to bomb my very hotel, at night. The next night a missile took out a building about 300 yards away, as I slept

    I've met dozens of Ukrainians of all ages, I've seen the flags of the dead in Maidan square, I've seen all the young men in crutches, missing limbs, in wheelchairs. I've had drinks with Ukrainians and listened to them casually say "oh yes, my three best friends from college are already dead, I'm going back to the front tomorrow, I'm not expecting to survive"

    And so on, and so forth

    I don't want any more of them to die. I like Ukrainians. I also like Russians (even as I despise their regime). I don't want them to die, either. I like humans in general, and I have a special fondness for young humans, who are the future, I don't want them to die

    If the war can be stopped in a way that ends the killing while securing most of Ukraine (ex Donetsk) they should try and do that deal. We will then need to shore up Ukraine's defences, indeed all our defences, so Putin can never try this again because he would meet with certain defeat

    So, with all due respect, go jump in a toxic lake
    Looked at dispassionately, it’s obviously a deal the Ukrainians should take if it’s seriously on offer.

    Zelensky would bite your hand off if offered frozen lines and a security guarantee. Which of course means that deal is not one that can be realistically achieved as it takes two to tango. They will have to give up more than they’ve already lost if they want it to stop, as Putin will think nothing of throwing another few million lives at grinding out the same outcome.

    As for the rest of us, a dial down in nuclear risk and a chance to rebuild our conventional capability would be a good outcome.
    another idiot, a bollox offer indeed.
    What’s the counterfactual? Keep fighting an endless attritional war against a country that has a population 3-4x your own and is essentially being bankrolled by China and India? And that has a seemingly infinite political capacity to absorb battlefield losses?

    I do not envy Zelensky, there are no good options available to him. There was a window for a fast moving manoeuvre warfare victory, it was in late 2022. But the moment was lost. By summer 2023 the chance had gone.
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