politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling eve

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

LOL. Clearly you are a party a fanatic and will brook no criticism of the Tories under any circumstances. Whether you are a member or not is immaterial (though of course you could make any claim you like from behind the mask of anonymity) but you are so clearly desperate to attack any other party that might threaten the Tories that you cannot be considered anything other than a fanatic. .

Eriksen Kerching ££££

Just read on Twitter than Syriza are forcing out the Bank of Greece governor.

If these guys can't get euros I would not put it past them to print their own.

Coe out of London Mayor race in a boost to Labour
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/46770/

Casino_Royale said:

Dair said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
Lord Ashcroft on Sky suggests that in today's climate parties could secure an overall majority with a share of the vote in the 20s.

I take it his Scottish marginal polling isn't that pretty for Labour.

From the way he phrased it. I suspect he has the SNP winning a fair number of seats but Labour holding on by 1 or 2,000 in quite a lot of others. He said something along the lines of "it's real, maybe not as massive as some polling indicates"

Probably fair. But then, if the SNP are any cop at groundgame, they will clock it and target their resources and activists accordingly.

Absolutely, if that;s the outcome of the polls, the 100k SNP members will clean up on the doorstep. The campaign pictures that Scottish Labour are posting on twitter look like Family Portraits while the SNP have nearly 2000 members per constituency.

That's 2.5% of the vote just in members. And the SNP have an awesome ground game and probably the best air game in the UK (compare "Kirsty/Two Futures" vs "Patronising BT Woman/The Woman Who Made Up Her Mind" referendum broadcasts.

taffys said:

Just read on Twitter than Syriza are forcing out the Bank of Greece governor.

If these guys can't get euros I would not put it past them to print their own.

They do possess a printing press in Greece. May as well get involved with some QE of their own.

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

You shouldn't post things solely on the ground that "it clearly hurts".

I have never seen a kipper deny that there are racists in the party. If we look at recent polling, 50% of kippers and 35% of tories don't want a Jewish prime minister, so your pitch (despite your irrelevant claim of having no party membership) is "vote tory, we are only a bit more than two-thirds as racist as Ukip."

And it wasn't Ukip which decided in an official internal inquiry that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the Third Reich is not racist behaviour.

I thought it was something like 18% of UKIP supporters and 12% of Conservative supporters who didn't want a Jewish PM.

Does anyone know the odds on Nick Clegg being Lib Dem leader after the GE?

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

You shouldn't post things solely on the ground that "it clearly hurts".

I have never seen a kipper deny that there are racists in the party. If we look at recent polling, 50% of kippers and 35% of tories don't want a Jewish prime minister, so your pitch (despite your irrelevant claim of having no party membership) is "vote tory, we are only a bit more than two-thirds as racist as Ukip."

And it wasn't Ukip which decided in an official internal inquiry that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the Third Reich is not racist behaviour.

I thought it was something like 18% of UKIP supporters and 12% of Conservative supporters who didn't want a Jewish PM.

Worried about the PM's responsibility for recommending bishops to the monarch?

taffys said:

They do possess a printing press in Greece.

A printing press for euros???

if so, f8ck me.....

They could debase the whole bl**dy currency.

I think each country who prints them assigns a specific number which can identify their country of origin. I don't know if they could just change the number to say that of Germany.

The EU cannot expel member states so the Greeks could have a lot of fun at everyone elses expense.

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

.

Y

I thought it was something like 18% of UKIP supporters and 12% of Conservative supporters who didn't want a Jewish PM.

On checking, I see that 13% of UKIP supporters and 7% of Conservatives would be less likely to vote for a party with a Jewish leader.

There were a few different questions asked (one of which, I don't think was a good question, as you can read it several ways) For example I can imagine some UKIPers who would see a Jewish Prime Minister more acceptable than say a Muslim Prime Mininster

And UKIP voters were less likely to see a Jewish prime minister as “equally acceptable” as a prime minister from another faith. Only 48% of those intending to vote UKIP agreed when asked, which compared with 62% of voters in general. The highest level of agreement came from Lib Dem and Labour supporters, at 73% and 72%. Conservative supporters were not far behind at 65%.

https://theconversation.com/british-voters-open-to-a-jewish-prime-minister-but-some-are-more-welcoming-than-others-36611

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

You shouldn't post things solely on the ground that "it clearly hurts".

I have never seen a kipper deny that there are racists in the party. If we look at recent polling, 50% of kippers and 35% of tories don't want a Jewish prime minister, so your pitch (despite your irrelevant claim of having no party membership) is "vote tory, we are only a bit more than two-thirds as racist as Ukip."

And it wasn't Ukip which decided in an official internal inquiry that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the Third Reich is not racist behaviour.

I thought it was something like 18% of UKIP supporters and 12% of Conservative supporters who didn't want a Jewish PM.

On checking, I see that 13% of UKIP supporters and 7% of Conservatives would be less likely to vote for a party with a Jewish leader.

All feels rather mute - we've had various party leaders with jewish relatives but I can't recall any who were jewish themselves? Leaving aside the obvious convert example.

Ishmael_X said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

You shouldn't post things solely on the ground that "it clearly hurts".

I have never seen a kipper deny that there are racists in the party. If we look at recent polling, 50% of kippers and 35% of tories don't want a Jewish prime minister, so your pitch (despite your irrelevant claim of having no party membership) is "vote tory, we are only a bit more than two-thirds as racist as Ukip."

And it wasn't Ukip which decided in an official internal inquiry that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the Third Reich is not racist behaviour.

I thought it was something like 18% of UKIP supporters and 12% of Conservative supporters who didn't want a Jewish PM.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/11363294/Would-Britain-accept-a-Jewish-Prime-Minister.html

Different questions I think.

It only gives the figures for those who say Yes to "equally acceptable". It doesn't break down the rest between unacceptable, don't know, don't care.

The Lib Dems have selected Cahal Burke to fight Colne Valley at the General Election. He is a local councillor in the constituency who was elected in 2010 with a majority of 150 and upped it to 1144 in 2015. He is also a marathon runner - he recently ran the New York marathon in 3 hr 45 minutes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eastwinger said:

OblitusSumMe said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

audreyanne said:

Just to show you how serious this is for the LibDems, the last time they polled in single figures in a General Election was 45 years ago in 1970 when they were just the Liberal Party. In fact, they haven't polled under 14% since then.
.......The Liberals polled 7.5% … … and won 6 seats.

Audreyanne, you paint the Lib Dems in far too rosy a picture. That 7.5% came from only standing in 332 of the 628 seats that the Conservatives stood in. If they had stood in all mainland seats they can be expected to have been in double figures then.

Although I would point out that in 1970 the winning party garnered 46% of the vote, and the second placed party got a vote share that would ensure a 150+ seat majority today. In a world where four parties get 10+% of the vote, and there's a fifth and sixth with perhaps 5% each, then the 'hurdle' for getting seats in any particular constituency is going to be much lower.

(And the risk of a completely disproportionate result increase substantially.)

UK election forecast have the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam and Berwickshire, R & S with just 30% of the vote, but I would be surprised if there weren't a few victories with a lower share than in Norwich South last time.

I live in Norwich South. Simon Wright has more chance of being struck by lightening than retaining his seat.

Odds of being struck by lightning 300,000/1

Odds of Simon Wright holding his seat 14/1

Edit: Feck me, Greens are 4/1 to win the seat, ahead of Simon Wright. (Lab are 2/7)

Are there any other seats out there, where the incumbent party is third favourites to win the seat.

Are you tempted by the lightning bet SE?

I think Simon Wright could even finish fourth in this one.

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Artist said:

I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.

The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.

I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.

Well, I'm mainly thinking about what could be considered 'interesting'. The SNP taking 54 seats wouldn't really be that interesting at this stage given the national polling.

That said I've soured on polling companies talking about "amazing shocking" polling after the hype that preceded a poll showing No Change in the last couple of weeks of the Indy Ref.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eastwinger said:

OblitusSumMe said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

audreyanne said:

Just to show you how serious this is for the LibDems, the last time they polled in single figures in a General Election was 45 years ago in 1970 when they were just the Liberal Party. In fact, they haven't polled under 14% since then.
.......The Liberals polled 7.5% … … and won 6 seats.

Audreyanne, you paint the Lib Dems in far too rosy a picture. That 7.5% came from only standing in 332 of the 628 seats that the Conservatives stood in. If they had stood in all mainland seats they can be expected to have been in double figures then.

Although I would point out that in 1970 the winning party garnered 46% of the vote, and the second placed party got a vote share that would ensure a 150+ seat majority today. In a world where four parties get 10+% of the vote, and there's a fifth and sixth with perhaps 5% each, then the 'hurdle' for getting seats in any particular constituency is going to be much lower.

(And the risk of a completely disproportionate result increase substantially.)

UK election forecast have the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam and Berwickshire, R & S with just 30% of the vote, but I would be surprised if there weren't a few victories with a lower share than in Norwich South last time.

I live in Norwich South. Simon Wright has more chance of being struck by lightening than retaining his seat.

Odds of being struck by lightning 300,000/1

Odds of Simon Wright holding his seat 14/1

Edit: Feck me, Greens are 4/1 to win the seat, ahead of Simon Wright. (Lab are 2/7)

Are there any other seats out there, where the incumbent party is third favourites to win the seat.

Where can I sign up for £100 on the lightning bet and will they pay out if I stand on top of the Crystal Palace TV mast with a sword held aloft in my right hand during a thunderstorm?

Well the odds would certainly tighten.

among other things.

TheWatcher said:

Dair said:

MP_SE said:

taffys said:

Just read on Twitter than Syriza are forcing out the Bank of Greece governor.

If these guys can't get euros I would not put it past them to print their own.

They do possess a printing press in Greece. May as well get involved with some QE of their own.

They won't and if you read up on Varoufakis you will see why - the guy might be the one to fix it.

But if they did, would that be wrong? In the UK Quantitative Easing transferred several hundred billions pounds of wealth from future taxpayers to today's bankers. They would have had a better effect sending a cheque for £2k to each adult in the UK. A much better effect.

But then the UK is a corrupt country and transferring wealth to their friends is Westminster policy.

You don't really understand what happened do you?

Yes, I understand. There is no appetite for the failed model of economic recovery proposed by the IMF and Germany. They have already foisted Greece with a doubling of their debt to GDP ratio, they want Greece to pay money it doesn't have and refuse any form of managed bankruptcy or if they do, they will only allow it on their terms at the already doubled rate of pain.

A Greek default in 2010 would have been far better and far less painful to the Greek people than a default today after 5 years of IMF managed economic failure.

Greece has a moral imperative to pass the pain on. Their population was stupid and complicit in voting in governments which wrecked their economy. But The UK does the same. Their population was wrong to believe what they were promised - but look at the Baby Boomers in the UK the most destructive generation in history who STILL want everything despite it being clear the promises made to them were lies.

The IMF and ECB made the Greek situation worse. Syriza expect the IMF and ECB to share the cost of the mistakes the IMF and ECB made. They have a point.

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

LOL. Clearly you are a party a fanatic and will brook no criticism of the Tories under any circumstances. Whether you are a member or not is immaterial (though of course you could make any claim you like from behind the mask of anonymity) but you are so clearly desperate to attack any other party that might threaten the Tories that you cannot be considered anything other than a fanatic. .

There you go again. I am not a party member of any party, I haven't distributed any leaflets for anyone of late, and my sole thoughts relating to 2015 are related to who would best lead the Country..

If you realistically look at the choices, Dave is the only one who can credibly lead the country at this time. Miliband is absolutely hopeless and comes across terribly. Even his own supporters despair of him. Your man is just a pub bore. Clegg is Clegg. nuff said

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what he thinks of Mark Reckless?

Ukip's founder, Professor Alan Sked, has issued a withering verdict of Douglas Carswell's leadership potential, saying he has "the charisma of a wet turd".

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/28/ukip-douglas-carswell-wet-turd_n_6560814.html?1422442155&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

Why would you post a link to such drivel without labelling it as such?

He did label it.

" Huffington Post"

bigjohnowls said:

Moses_ said:

BBC covering Wales NHS worst 999 month for emergency response on record with over 50% of calls not meeting the 8 minute rate. A very thorough report indeed on the catastrophe in Wales with absolutely nothing omitted , straight for the jugular stuff.....

Oh wait a minute? ......they did forget to mention one tiny little fact .......

It's controlled by Labour.

response times were better than they had been for the same period the previous year though weren't they.

I n England we have gone from hitting all NHS targets to missing nearly all of them.

The Tories Wales/weaponising responses will not save them from this fact IMO

What part of the term "worse on record" do you not understands?

Actually, missed out the biggest in Scotland

Argyll & Bute
SNP 1.25
Labour 7.00
Liberal Democrats 9.00

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

SquareRoot said:

before you can say boo to a goose, kippers are on here ready to trash their founder..
I guess its all right for KIppers to be nasty about and to other people..., but not all right when it gets pointed out that there are significant racist elements in their party .

It is fine to claim that as long as it is balanced by the admission that there are just as many racist elements in the other parties as well.

It is the utter hypocrisy of the party fanatics like yourself who think their own party holds the moral highground that makes people want to vomit.

Firstly, I am not a party fanatic and I hold NO membership of any party, secondly, I point out the racist element in UKIP because it clearly hurts because its true. Thirdly I never made any claim about any party and the moral high ground. So typical of you and others on here to invent what others have said.

You shouldn't post things solely on the ground that "it clearly hurts".

I have never seen a kipper deny that there are racists in the party. If we look at recent polling, 50% of kippers and 35% of tories don't want a Jewish prime minister, so your pitch (despite your irrelevant claim of having no party membership) is "vote tory, we are only a bit more than two-thirds as racist as Ukip."

And it wasn't Ukip which decided in an official internal inquiry that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the Third Reich is not racist behaviour.

Another one who wants to put words in my mouth.

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

'Follow your convictions - this is the end of the politics of fear' George Monbiot on how it is time to vote with your heart, for the SNP, Greens rather than Labour and reject neoliberalism following the wave from Latin America to Greece
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/28/convictions-politics-fear-syriza-podemos-snp-green

That is a very interesting and compelling article.

Maybe one day everyone will thank the Referendum for the outcome it has already left for all of the UK.

No, it is a very loopy article. Its central claim is that the Greens will sweep to power in 2017, because their membership has risen to 50 000 and because Syriza have won in Greece.

It reads more as a Call To Action than a prediction. It's marketing and good marketing.

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Actually, missed out the biggest in Scotland

Argyll & Bute
SNP 1.25
Labour 7.00
Liberal Democrats 9.00

Alan Beith is standing down and it's a 4 way split. Perfect for an SNP landslide so those odds don't see remotely inaccurate.

Alan Beith does not even represent a Scottish seat never mind Argyll and Bute

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Actually, missed out the biggest in Scotland

Argyll & Bute
SNP 1.25
Labour 7.00
Liberal Democrats 9.00

Alan Beith is standing down and it's a 4 way split. Perfect for an SNP landslide so those odds don't see remotely inaccurate.

Ah, of course, given the request was for incumbents in 3rd place that doesn't count.

Pong said:

Carnyx said:

Pong said:

Before the Ashcroft polls ruin the fun, does anyone want a bet on how much of the labour vote goes to the SNP in labours safest seat?

I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.

Presumably you mean Scottish constituencies ...

I'll happily lay a bet on the SNP vote % in liverpool walton. You can have any stake you like.

No thanks - exactly!

Berwick could have been different, though ...

Alistair said:

MarkSenior said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Actually, missed out the biggest in Scotland

Argyll & Bute
SNP 1.25
Labour 7.00
Liberal Democrats 9.00

Alan Beith is standing down and it's a 4 way split. Perfect for an SNP landslide so those odds don't see remotely inaccurate.

Alan Beith does not even represent a Scottish seat never mins Argyll and Bute

Alan Reid.

He is not standing down either he has been reselected to stand again !!!!!!!!!

Sorry my bad getting my Alan's confused.

Alistair said:

RodCrosby said:

MaxPB said:

RodCrosby said:

Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]

Labour = F*****

He specifically mentioned "Glasgow" too...

As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.

I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.

Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.

That is to say, a former good friend.

MP_SE said:

taffys said:

They do possess a printing press in Greece.

A printing press for euros???

if so, f8ck me.....

They could debase the whole bl**dy currency.

I think each country who prints them assigns a specific number which can identify their country of origin. I don't know if they could just change the number to say that of Germany.

The EU cannot expel member states so the Greeks could have a lot of fun at everyone elses expense.

I believe that's right (it's a couple of letters at the beginning).

There have been cases in the past where the same currency traded at different rates depending on source.

From memory, I think, Norman coins from London were less valuable than those minted in Normandy, while I believe there were also differences in the the thalers minted by different German princelings.

The other hint Lord Ashcroft gives is about the significance of Yes voting for SNP performance. Maybe my model will stand further scrutiny after all.

antifrank said:

The other hint Lord Ashcroft gives is about the significance of Yes voting for SNP performance. Maybe my model will stand further scrutiny after all.

All hail SMAPS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sAVzqjn9iA10c1wVlAwCiR0ycue0P83ixV-Zsak3ufs/edit

I actually tweaked SMAPS a little in my perosnal spreadsheet to give a percentage of Yes and No votes in a region to SNP/Greens to bring it more in line with your model and to model different opinion polls.

Still results in SNP landslide every time.

Carnyx said:

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/308127-daisley-mail-stephen-daisleys-take-on-politics-polls-general-election/

'Scottish Labour has called on the Electoral Commission to halt a "dangerous and untested" procedure in the run-up to the 2015 general election.'Democracy' is a method for extracting the views of voters through a process known as elections and is being trialled in Scotland for the first time this May.'

For those that haven't been folowing the latest Jim Murphy wheeze this is a piss take on Scottish Labour's "We'll ban fracking but won't vote on a bill to ban fracking" stance.

HYUFD said:

Dair We shall see, and also if there is any unionist tactical voting.

There will be lots of Unionist Tactical Voting as long as it is for Liberal ME.
There will be lots of Unionist Tactical Voting as long as it is for Labour ME.
There will be lots of Unionist Tactical Voting as long as it is for Tory ME.

Nurse....

Alistair said:

Carnyx said:

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/308127-daisley-mail-stephen-daisleys-take-on-politics-polls-general-election/

'Scottish Labour has called on the Electoral Commission to halt a "dangerous and untested" procedure in the run-up to the 2015 general election.'Democracy' is a method for extracting the views of voters through a process known as elections and is being trialled in Scotland for the first time this May.'

For those that haven't been folowing the latest Jim Murphy wheeze this is a piss take on Scottish Labour's "We'll ban fracking but won't vote on a bill to ban fracking" stance.

Thanks to Scottish Labour pressure (i.e. refusing to ban fracking) the SNP has now banned fracking!

Dair said:

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

RodCrosby said:

MaxPB said:

RodCrosby said:

Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]

Labour = F*****

He specifically mentioned "Glasgow" too...

As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.

I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.

I'm tempted to go big on Glasgow North but I could be falling into the trap of thinking I know an area just because I lived there for years.

The turnout might be a big factor in Glasgow North. Maryhill and Springburn both had sub-40% turnouts in 2011 and even list MSP Bobby Doris couldn;t life Maryhill off Labour. It's do-able but it doesn't come across to me as a great bet.

I can imagine pish turnout again with the SNP voters way more enthused than Labour voters.

TGOHF said:

Dair said:

antifrank said:

Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.

That is to say, a former good friend.

Were you both having a pint down the golf club?

That's still legal in England..

And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.

Dair It depends on who is the SNP's main challenger