Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
It is only being drunk that makes Britain bearable. It is going to be miserable in Scotland with the puritans banning a pint or a dram at the end of a round.
One of the things that struck me most when I moved to Scotland was the difference in the way golf is viewed north of the border. In England there is very much the club view, the middle England, middle class bank manager thing; drinkies in the 19th hole then home in the Jag. But north of the border (whilst there are still clubs in the same mould), there are many more municipal courses (and good ones too, the Braid Hills in Edinburgh is a gem)and it is much more of a working class pursuit. Not withstanding the biggies like Gleneagles etc, Golf is much more accessible up here; If i want a drink at the end of my round i'll just take the clubs on the bus ;-)
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
That'll teach you to wear mustard coloured corduroy in the City, on a Wednesday.
Thin gruel indeed Nick. Given the continued unpopularity of the Tories and austerity in general and given the lack of any other credible leftwing alternative, you'd have thought a substantial Labour lead would be expected at this stage in the cycle, no?
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
It is only being drunk that makes Britain bearable. It is going to be miserable in Scotland with the puritans banning a pint or a dram at the end of a round.
One of the things that struck me most when I moved to Scotland was the difference in the way golf is viewed north of the border. In England there is very much the club view, the middle England, middle class bank manager thing; drinkies in the 19th hole then home in the Jag. But north of the border (whilst there are still clubs in the same mould), there are many more municipal courses (and good ones too, the Braid Hills in Edinburgh is a gem)and it is much more of a working class pursuit. Not withstanding the biggies like Gleneagles etc, Golf is much more accessible up here; If i want a drink at the end of my round i'll just take the clubs on the bus ;-)
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
It is only being drunk that makes Britain bearable. It is going to be miserable in Scotland with the puritans banning a pint or a dram at the end of a round.
One of the things that struck me most when I moved to Scotland was the difference in the way golf is viewed north of the border. In England there is very much the club view, the middle England, middle class bank manager thing; drinkies in the 19th hole then home in the Jag. But north of the border (whilst there are still clubs in the same mould), there are many more municipal courses (and good ones too, the Braid Hills in Edinburgh is a gem)and it is much more of a working class pursuit. Not withstanding the biggies like Gleneagles etc, Golf is much more accessible up here; If i want a drink at the end of my round i'll just take the clubs on the bus ;-)
The Old Course is, of course, a municipal course.
A few close friends (including my best man) were at uni in St Andy's and regularly played the old course. I went to uni in Bristol so didn't....
As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.
I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.
I'm tempted to go big on Glasgow North but I could be falling into the trap of thinking I know an area just because I lived there for years.
Is there a breakdown available for referendum votes per Glasgow constituency? If Glasgow North had a very high independence vote then I'm definitely tempted.
Not that prescient. he missed the rise of the Greens, and no 1 is "how would an Indyref Yes affect Labour", not "an Indyref No will make the Scots all want to vote SNP". And I note the previous thread is "Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015"
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
LibDems 6%
Some people, incl OGH, are in for a shock on May 7th if they continue like this.
Given that after all this time they are still going down, rather than trending upwards even slightly, perhaps it is time to start wondering if they will get any sort of GE boost at all. At this rate 10% would be a good result and might just save them half of their seats, but more than that is looking out of reach. I really thought they would hold about 35ish for years, but not any more, that's for sure.
As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.
I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.
I'm tempted to go big on Glasgow North but I could be falling into the trap of thinking I know an area just because I lived there for years.
Is there a breakdown available for referendum votes per Glasgow constituency? If Glasgow North had a very high independence vote then I'm definitely tempted.
Would be nice if there was a market for the narrowest SNP win. Glasgow North might be fantastic value there.
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
LibDems 6%
Some people, incl OGH, are in for a shock on May 7th if they continue like this.
Given that after all this time they are still going down, rather than trending upwards even slightly, perhaps it is time to start wondering if they will get any sort of GE boost at all. At this rate 10% would be a good result and might just save them half of their seats, but more than that is looking out of reach. I really thought they would hold about 35ish for years, but not any more, that's for sure.
Why should the LibDems get an election boost? There are now better-regarded NOTA parties available.
Not that prescient. he missed the rise of the Greens, and no 1 is "how would an Indyref Yes affect Labour", not "an Indyref No will make the Scots all want to vote SNP". And I note the previous thread is "Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015"
He spotted Scotland as the achilles heel, though got the nature of the injury wrong.
As for the red LDs, he did suggest that they may move elsewhere. That seems to be the Greens.
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
Just had a text from a mate at work in Leicester tonight, clearly felt it.
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
Well it is near biblical bad weather here in South Yorkshire.
I slept through the 2008 earthquake that hit the UK
Thin gruel indeed Nick. Given the continued unpopularity of the Tories and austerity in general and given the lack of any other credible leftwing alternative, you'd have thought a substantial Labour lead would be expected at this stage in the cycle, no?
I'm not sure what I'd expect - with UKIP, the SNP and the Greens roaming around we are in uncharted territory. But to have been in power for 13 years, then lose, then recover to have a decent shot at winning is quite unusual. If you'd offered me 2015 parity in 2010 I'd have taken it like a shot.
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
LibDems 6%
Some people, incl OGH, are in for a shock on May 7th if they continue like this.
Given that after all this time they are still going down, rather than trending upwards even slightly, perhaps it is time to start wondering if they will get any sort of GE boost at all. At this rate 10% would be a good result and might just save them half of their seats, but more than that is looking out of reach. I really thought they would hold about 35ish for years, but not any more, that's for sure.
Why should the LibDems get an election boost? There are now better-regarded NOTA parties available.
Who are not led by Nick Clegg.
I think the idea of a boost was at least some return to some tactical voting in their favour and holding up better in their current seats translating to at least a few percent more than they poll outside of the GE, and it could still happen like that, but for one unless it was a massive boost which appears unlikely it will not save many of them, and for two with their score still flat or trending downward rather than any sort of recovery, even people in the safer seats have to be considering that the best tactical vote against Tory/Labour in their seat is not the incumbent LD even.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
Well it is near biblical bad weather here in South Yorkshire.
I slept through the 2008 earthquake that hit the UK
That's just rude of you, what must have she thought?
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
LibDems 6%
Some people, incl OGH, are in for a shock on May 7th if they continue like this.
Given that after all this time they are still going down, rather than trending upwards even slightly, perhaps it is time to start wondering if they will get any sort of GE boost at all. At this rate 10% would be a good result and might just save them half of their seats, but more than that is looking out of reach. I really thought they would hold about 35ish for years, but not any more, that's for sure.
Why should the LibDems get an election boost? There are now better-regarded NOTA parties available.
Who are not led by Nick Clegg.
I think the idea of a boost was at least some return to some tactical voting in their favour and holding up better in their current seats translating to at least a few percent more than they poll outside of the GE
I still expect that to happen -- but it'll only be something in the order of about 2% on their national score (so up to about 9-10% in total I would say) and as you say only enough to save half their seats at best. There was never going to be some magical rescue ship which would restore the Lib Dems back to pre-2010 levels like some of their supporters were thinking, though.
Rafael Behr: Osborne should now complain that austerity in Europe has been drag on UK growth. Too far, too fast. Just to see the look on Ed Balls's face.
My friends in Lincolnshire and nearby are reporting an earthquake.
Jonathan Agnew was tweeting about it too: Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
Well it is near biblical bad weather here in South Yorkshire.
I slept through the 2008 earthquake that hit the UK
That's just rude of you, what must have she thought?
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
LOL
nobody lives outside of the central belt do they???
When pollsters start asking the constituency question as the norm like ICM do, the Lib Dems may go up. (though they didn't in the Survation a few days ago) They're also struggling to get heard at the moment with the Conservatives and Labour trading blows with each other, it might be different when they get more coverage during the campaign proper.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
#meltdown
At least as "last leader of the LibDems" Nick Clegg will have secured his place in history!
When pollsters start asking the constituency question as the norm like ICM do, the Lib Dems may go up. (though they didn't in the Survation a few days ago) They're also struggling to get heard at the moment with the Conservatives and Labour trading blows with each other.
I think the constituency question is only meaningful in in single constituency polls, otherwiseit is impossible to tease apart red to yellow from yellow to red tactical voters as these two movements may partially or completely disappear in a national poll with this question.
Batsh*t crazy feminist woman on Newsnight opposing making it illegal to abort on basis of gender.... Because it is the state interfering in right to choose.... Maybe the state should not interfere in people stealing or killing or....
As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.
I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.
I'm tempted to go big on Glasgow North but I could be falling into the trap of thinking I know an area just because I lived there for years.
Is there a breakdown available for referendum votes per Glasgow constituency? If Glasgow North had a very high independence vote then I'm definitely tempted.
Alas, unlike Edinburgh, Glasgow breakdowns for indyref votes are based on Scottish parliament boundaries not Westminster.
Batsh*t crazy feminist woman on Newsnight opposing making it illegal to abort on basis of gender.... Because it is the state interfering in right to choose.... Maybe the state should not interfere in people stealing or killing or....
No doubt she approves of the burqa because it empowers women.
The Green Surge (if it actually materialises) could make things even more difficult for the Lib Dems. Lots of the talk of the Greens' best places usually talks about the university seats, but strangely enough, one of the Greens' best areas in last year's European elections was the West Country, which is the main Tory/LibDem marginal battleground. The Lib Dems are facing a hard enough task to hold onto those seats as it is, and really can't afford to lose much of the genteel/middle-aged-hippie vote to the Greens.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
Remember the excitement when the Eastleigh by election was called and the certainty expressed by many on here that this was an easy blue victory. In the end they slumped to a pathetic 3rd well below any of the polls.
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
As a man who bet on SNP in Glasgow back in November that makes me happy.
I've just placed three more bets on Glasgow constituencies.
I'm tempted to go big on Glasgow North but I could be falling into the trap of thinking I know an area just because I lived there for years.
Is there a breakdown available for referendum votes per Glasgow constituency? If Glasgow North had a very high independence vote then I'm definitely tempted.
Alas, unlike Edinburgh, Glasgow breakdowns for indyref votes are based on Scottish parliament boundaries not Westminster.
If you've got a link, I wouldn't mind seeing the breakdown by Scottish Parliament boundaries, if it's not too much trouble!
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
I agree on that. But unlike GE2010 the Lib Dems do not have their polling inflated by students.... So the polling for the LDs is probably not over inflated at present (except with ICM) innocent face.
When pollsters start asking the constituency question as the norm like ICM do, the Lib Dems may go up. (though they didn't in the Survation a few days ago) They're also struggling to get heard at the moment with the Conservatives and Labour trading blows with each other, it might be different when they get more coverage during the campaign proper.
I think Lib Dems will outperform their poll rating slightly, as they have local strength for local people in quite alot of hotspots - Sutton and Cheam, Eastleigh, Sheffield Hallam
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Unless you want people to have a social life and want pubs to remain viable economically.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
#meltdown
And assuming true - just how will they react during the election campaign? That might govern how many seats they do get. Thats the LD MPs and party activists? As far as their plausible voters are concerned I think they will vote to keep out the likes of UKIP. This may mean that their vote in terms of numbers will elect more MPs than they were due. That still might well be just 10 of course.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
Earlier today, antifrank was suggesting covering both the 21-30 and 31-40 seat bands for the LibDems, to return a "near-certain" 40% return (as he sees it) over a 99 day period. I consider this an uncharacteristically unwise call from one of the better betting brains on the site. IMHO covering the 11-20 and 21-30 seat bands is more likely to capture the winner at considerably better odds of 0.72/1. As ever DYOR.
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
Well, if it cuts deaths by 10% then it will save 2 people a year mainly 2 drunk drivers. Every 2 years a non-drunk driver will also have their life saved. Alternatively, we could see a lot more banned drivers, possibly over 1,000 every year and those 1,000 families deprived of a revenue earner - with the cost calling on the state and maybe 10% of them going to jail every year etc etc.
So after 10 years there are 6 people alive that would have been killed by a drunk driver at a cost of tens of thousands of lives harmed by the loss of jobs, jailings and other unfortunate side effects. But WTF. They are only jocks.
PS Anyone thinking of spending £ on a driving holiday in northern britland may choose to stop in Yorkshire and deprive the northern brit economy of many many millions.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
I've written before about their being 5 types of LD voters in 2010
1) True LDs 2) Green supporters who tactically vote LD 3) Labour supporters who tactically vote LD 4) Ex-Labour supporters who switched to LD over Iraq and tuition fees 5) Anti politics/anti big 2 voters
Group 4 and some Group 3 (and some more leftish Group 1 ) left as soon as the coalition was formed Group 5 drifted off over time helped by the rise of UKIP Group 2 have more recently started leaving as the Greens now look a better bet That leaves some Group 1 and some Group 3
The danger now for the LDs is that they start looking like losers and the poll slide becomes self-reinforcing
For example suppose I am a voter who hates the Tories and lives in Solihull. I get a LD barchart through the post. "Only the LDs can beat the Tories" - LD -43%, Con - 43%, Lab - 9%
Now in the past I might have said OK let's vote LD. Now I might think I want the LD to win but as they are on 6% in the polls they haven't got a chance so I might as well vote for who I want
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Unless you want people to have a social life and want pubs to remain viable economically.
A drink between work and home is nothing about social life, it is purely about alcohol dependency, which is a deep rooted problem in Scotland. As for pubs remaining open, especially rural pubs, well we don't have an Agrarian economy any more.
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Unless you want people to have a social life and want pubs to remain viable economically.
A drink between work and home is nothing about social life, it is purely about alcohol dependency, which is a deep rooted problem in Scotland. As for pubs remaining open, especially rural pubs, well we don't have an Agrarian economy any more.
Alcoholics would be above the old limit, so what benefit? Rural pubs and hotels are not just important to locals, but also to the tourist industry.
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
If they win 6-8%, they will struggle to get more than 10 seats.
I've written before about their being 5 types of LD voters in 2010
1) True LDs 2) Green supporters who tactically vote LD 3) Labour supporters who tactically vote LD 4) Ex-Labour supporters who switched to LD over Iraq and tuition fees 5) Anti politics/anti big 2 voters
Group 4 and some Group 3 (and some more leftish Group 1 ) left as soon as the coalition was formed Group 5 drifted off over time helped by the rise of UKIP Group 2 have more recently started leaving as the Greens now look a better bet That leaves some Group 1 and some Group 3
The danger now for the LDs is that they start looking like losers and the poll slide becomes self-reinforcing
For example suppose I am a voter who hates the Tories and lives in Solihull. I get a LD barchart through the post. "Only the LDs can beat the Tories" - LD -43%, Con - 43%, Lab - 9%
Now in the past I might have said OK let's vote LD. Now I might think I want the LD to win but as they are on 6% in the polls they haven't got a chance so I might as well vote for who I want
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
There could be a huge divergence in LD shares between those seats where the candidate is well-known (either as MP or long-time candidate) and all other seats. Of course there always has been such a divergence but it could be even larger than before. So I think 10% and 30 seats is still possible.
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Unless you want people to have a social life and want pubs to remain viable economically.
What makes you think he wants either?
If people are enjoying themselves, that surely can't be a good thing.
For years, Dundee elected a Scottish Prohibtionist, Mr. Scrymgeour, to Parliament. He must have been a barrel of laughs. That city is now an SNP stronghold.
I am not an expert on psephology, as others on this site obviously are, but I wonder whether the polling figures for the minor parties might be overstated. In May we will be having a large number of local and mayoral elections on the same day as the General Election. I very much suspect that many people will protest vote in the locals but stick to the more conventional choices in the main event. Any opinions?
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
Remember the excitement when the Eastleigh by election was called and the certainty expressed by many on here that this was an easy blue victory. In the end they slumped to a pathetic 3rd well below any of the polls.
I'd hardly call it pathetic. It was the closest 3-way by-election in 92 years...
Of course if the Governing folk in Scotland wanted to really save hundreds of thousands from an early death they should put their efforts to the shameful early deaths in parts of Glasgow where the average life expectancy is as bad as the worst in Africa. But heck, two people saved from death on the roads each year is more important than the thousands dying early every year in Glasgow.
Or is that the fault of the NHS run from Westminster?
Despite PB.com's seemingly boundless confidence in Lord Ashcroft's poll findings (shades of Angus Reid pre the 2010 GE, never to ber heard of on the site since), it's very difficult to believe that the LibDems will win more than around 20-25 seats maximum should they remain on their present 6%-8% share of the vote.Time is fast running out.
There could be a huge divergence in LD shares between those seats where the candidate is well-known (either as MP or long-time candidate) and all other seats. Of course there always has been such a divergence but it could be even larger than before. So I think 10% and 30 seats is still possible.
30? Only 46 are incumbents. Then there are the forlorn LD Scots.... To keep the losses from incumbents to 16 with 10%? Ummmmm?
Thin gruel indeed Nick. Given the continued unpopularity of the Tories and austerity in general and given the lack of any other credible leftwing alternative, you'd have thought a substantial Labour lead would be expected at this stage in the cycle, no?
I'm not sure what I'd expect - with UKIP, the SNP and the Greens roaming around we are in uncharted territory. But to have been in power for 13 years, then lose, then recover to have a decent shot at winning is quite unusual. If you'd offered me 2015 parity in 2010 I'd have taken it like a shot.
There is nothing unusual with being in power for 13 years and being in with a shot at winning 5 years later. Labour won in 1964 and then lost in 1970, less than 6 years later. Labour's current standings are pathetic and reflect the pathetic nature of their leadership. Current polls are only showing parity if you squint. Labour are barely showing better than 2010.
Incidentally, regular posters might be interested to know that a good friend described me today as someone who looks and sounds startlingly like Nigel Farage.
That is to say, a former good friend.
Were you both having a pint down the golf club?
That's still legal in England..
And legal in Scotland. But get the Night Bus home to avoid breaking the law.
Night bus from a golf club ? Bloody central belt metropolitan elite....
Ah so being able to drink drive is a rural right. Bollocks.
Is there a detectable decrease in risk for the lower limit? If so how many in Scotland will benefit? Will this outweigh the negative economic impact on Scotland's rural pubs, clubs, eateries and tourist industry?
In all honesty, the law has nothing to do with deaths from drink driving. It is to stop as OTGOH said earlier "you can't even stop off at the pub on the way home from work before you go home".
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Unless you want people to have a social life and want pubs to remain viable economically.
A drink between work and home is nothing about social life, it is purely about alcohol dependency, which is a deep rooted problem in Scotland. As for pubs remaining open, especially rural pubs, well we don't have an Agrarian economy any more.
Alcoholics would be above the old limit, so what benefit? Rural pubs and hotels are not just important to locals, but also to the tourist industry.
The important thing is to stop people from consuming the Devil's buttermilk.
Comments
In England there is very much the club view, the middle England, middle class bank manager thing; drinkies in the 19th hole then home in the Jag. But north of the border (whilst there are still clubs in the same mould), there are many more municipal courses (and good ones too, the Braid Hills in Edinburgh is a gem)and it is much more of a working class pursuit. Not withstanding the biggies like Gleneagles etc, Golf is much more accessible up here; If i want a drink at the end of my round i'll just take the clubs on the bus ;-)
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/28/milibands-five-hurdles/#vanilla-comments
Are we heading for 4 out of 5, or even more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNPJuJSVmNA
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%
KNEEJERKOVERPOLLSTASTIC!
POEWAS
Given the continued unpopularity of the Tories and austerity in general and given the lack of any other credible leftwing alternative, you'd have thought a substantial Labour lead would be expected at this stage in the cycle, no?
Some people, incl OGH, are in for a shock on May 7th if they continue like this.
Labour steady at 2.12/2.14
Tories nudge in again 1.90/1.91
Could lock in a 3-figure profit but do I wait for Lord A.... hmm....
The last time that the Tories had more than 2 consecutive YouGov leads was in early October 2014.
Tomorrow's thread? Tory polling collapse as leads in polls vanish in 3 days.... 3 then 1 then 0.
Jonathan Agnew @Aggerscricket 15m15 minutes ago
The earth just moved in the Vale. I mean seriously. Anyone else feel it?
Who are not led by Nick Clegg.
As for the red LDs, he did suggest that they may move elsewhere. That seems to be the Greens.
Magnitude 3.9. Is that unusual for these parts? “@BigDL: details here http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=424741 …”
Just had a text from a mate at work in Leicester tonight, clearly felt it.
I slept through the 2008 earthquake that hit the UK
I'll get my coat.
Genetics eh?
nobody lives outside of the central belt do they???
Remember the excitement when the Eastleigh by election was called and the certainty expressed by many on here that this was an easy blue victory. In the end they slumped to a pathetic 3rd well below any of the polls.
And that is a very desirable outcome.
Thats the LD MPs and party activists?
As far as their plausible voters are concerned I think they will vote to keep out the likes of UKIP. This may mean that their vote in terms of numbers will elect more MPs than they were due. That still might well be just 10 of course.
I consider this an uncharacteristically unwise call from one of the better betting brains on the site. IMHO covering the 11-20 and 21-30 seat bands is more likely to capture the winner at considerably better odds of 0.72/1.
As ever DYOR.
So after 10 years there are 6 people alive that would have been killed by a drunk driver at a cost of tens of thousands of lives harmed by the loss of jobs, jailings and other unfortunate side effects. But WTF. They are only jocks.
PS Anyone thinking of spending £ on a driving holiday in northern britland may choose to stop in Yorkshire and deprive the northern brit economy of many many millions.
It set my dog barking.
1) True LDs
2) Green supporters who tactically vote LD
3) Labour supporters who tactically vote LD
4) Ex-Labour supporters who switched to LD over Iraq and tuition fees
5) Anti politics/anti big 2 voters
Group 4 and some Group 3 (and some more leftish Group 1 ) left as soon as the coalition was formed
Group 5 drifted off over time helped by the rise of UKIP
Group 2 have more recently started leaving as the Greens now look a better bet
That leaves some Group 1 and some Group 3
The danger now for the LDs is that they start looking like losers and the poll slide becomes self-reinforcing
For example suppose I am a voter who hates the Tories and lives in Solihull. I get a LD barchart through the post. "Only the LDs can beat the Tories" - LD -43%, Con - 43%, Lab - 9%
Now in the past I might have said OK let's vote LD. Now I might think I want the LD to win but as they are on 6% in the polls they haven't got a chance so I might as well vote for who I want
If people are enjoying themselves, that surely can't be a good thing.
For years, Dundee elected a Scottish Prohibtionist, Mr. Scrymgeour, to Parliament. He must have been a barrel of laughs. That city is now an SNP stronghold.
Any opinions?
Or is that the fault of the NHS run from Westminster?
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/aug/01/drink-drive-deaths-number-changed-over-time
The lower limit looks to me to be a solution in search of a problem!
You only see the evidence you want to see. There is a lot more for the Lib Dems to play for then you think.