politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015
Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side.
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
There aren't any public findings until next week !!!!!
Quite. Con Maj steady, Lab Maj drifting (and NOM therefore shortening). Could just be a reaction to the general GB polling but it's gone from 8.5 to 11.0 in a couple of days, including a jump out today.
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Cover Labour minority if you can find the right odds I reckon. It's favourite for a reason (On the Labour side of the book), SNP-Conservative coalition isn't a possibility given that the SNP have ruled it out very explicitly.
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives
You'll make more money listening to Rod than betting against him.
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives
You'll make more money listening to Rod than betting against him.
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
And the LibDems came first in the council elections last time out, despite: (1) not standing in all the seats thanks to their bizarre decision of not fighting Mr or Mrs Hancock, and (2) it being at the height of the Hancock scandal.
I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
And the LibDems came first in the council elections last time out, despite: (1) not standing in all the seats thanks to their bizarre decision of not fighting Mr or Mrs Hancock, and (2) it being at the height of the Hancock scandal.
I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.
I prefer the 1-2 on the Conservatives in Portsmouth North
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
Sathnam Sanghera @Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.
Agree with OGH main article that this could be a game changer for EdM.
On that subject, this link is not to be read by Ed Miliband devotees (are there any left?) "Will Ed Miliband find himself in the dock for stirring up hatred against himself?" "It’s a bit late to do anything about it before the election, but the yodeling uselessness of the fellow is a crime against democracy." "Whatever the electorate feels about the NHS, the deficit, austerity – and whatever the ostensible party lead – the electorate do not trust Ed Miliband. Not with bacon nor with the budget. How many MPs behind him will lose their jobs and careers on account of his cross-eyed, fan-toothed, quoit-mouthed performance at the top of the political Wallacocracy?" http://order-order.com/2015/01/28/pmqs-eds-weapon-backfires/#more-185027
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
But what about Hancock standing again to hoover up another £30,000 and attract away a few thousand Lib Dems?
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge"..... "HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system. Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000. After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight." http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I'm most interested in seeing how Labour and Lib Dem incumbents perform respectively. I have a hunch, nothing more than that, that Lib Dem incumbents may see more of a personal vote than Labour incumbents.
I've decided that this is probably the last opportunity to get really good prices on the SNP if Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling shows how the SNP vote share rise translates onto the constituency map. So I'm going to increase my SNP exposure this weekend.
To reassure Pulpstar, my blood pressure will be under control on Monday. I may feel very foolish on Monday afternoon, but that's show business.
Lots of speculation here without looking at the polling numbers.
The last two waves of Ashcroft CON-LD battlegrounds each had average swings to CON of just 2%. Now there was an awful lot of variation between the seats but they don't, as some on here are suggesting, point to big gains. Possibly 7 but maybe 10 max.
In most of these defences the LDs are far better organised with more skilled ground troops and far better databases.
Clearly where an incumbent MP like Alan Beith is standing down then it will be a harder. But the Ashcroft polling had the yellows ahead amongst alll those expressing a preference in his seat.
I don't think I am ever going to understand this. That is historical polling, however specialised and expensive and interesting it was at the time. If I want to know what the weather is going to be like tomorrow where I live, a bespoke micro-climatological forecast for my house and garden conducted by a team of met office experts, if it's more than 24 hours old, is bugger all value compared with just listening to the national forecast.
However, you can compare the historical constituency polling with the national polling at the time, so that you can calibrate a local forecast given an updated national poll.
The calibration in this instance is that the Lib-to-Con swing in Lib-Con marginals will be smaller than that in the national polls. The size of this swing may change over time, but Smithson is arguing that this calibration is invariant.
To take your weather forecast analogy, you may know that where you live tends to be a few degrees cooler in summer than the forecast for the nearest big city, because it is closer to the coast, so you can adjust the forecast for the big city appropriately.
Thanks, that is very helpful.
I see the argument, but the theory that "swinginess" is invariant or relatively invariant seems to me highly questionable, and I cannot see how you make allowance for the fact that people more likely to tactically vote, are also more likely to give tactical answers to VI questions.
I hope someone does a post-mortem after May 7 to determine how much this polling has actually told us.
For anyone who wants to play the spreads, SpreadEx have put up seat markets, and their prices are slightly different to SPIN's. In particular they have the SNP 2 seats lower (but with a bigger spread).
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
Neither the Conservative or Lib Dem national polling has budged significantly since then, if you go by the wikipedia graph, so what reason have you to doubt the helpfulness of the poll of Torbay?
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Are there any other parties that could join either of those coalitions and ruin it for you, greens maybe?
I expect Caroline Lucas to rule herself out of any coalition very very quickly.
The SNP and Plaid aren't seperable so if the bookie considers it Lab/SNP/Plaid the bet is a loser. The Greens are indicating they will have a post election pact with the SNP/Plaid bloc.
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.
Lord Ashcroft's poll suggests otherwise.
Maybe it will be wrong, but you seem to be basing that judgement purely on wishful thinking.
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.
Additionally I notice David Laws Yeovil consituency has a Green canditate standing for the first time since 2001 which won't help him at all. He could well lose to the tories due to the libdem vote fracturing into UKIP, Lab and Green.
If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1 Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
So whats the answer?!
Bookies always win this bet?
The question is "What price a coalition involving the SNP that isn't w Lab or w Lab & LD?"
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.
Additionally I notice David Laws Yeovil consituency has a Green canditate standing for the first time since 2001 which won't help him at all. He could well lose to the tories due to the libdem vote fracturing into UKIP, Lab and Green.
If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.
National vote shares irrelevant.
In latest batch of Ashcroft CON-LD battles the yellows had average lead of 9%.
Sathnam Sanghera @Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.
There is a spectacular uplift in the LD Torbay numbers when the supplementary question is posed. Not sure where they are coming from because its noticeably more than the losses of Con/UKIP/Lab/Grn combined.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Evening all and I see Shadsy has confirmed the Tories are now favourites in Northampton North. I wonder how many more seats will move to the "blue" column before 7th May.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Do we know what Marcus is doing now?
He was a very popular contributor to this Site.
Focussing on his non political career
Last time he was on here, he said he had moved on, he had spent enough time, and made enough sacrifices (financial and career wise) not to be the candidate in 2015.
He also expressed frustration with the Tory strategy in 2010.
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.
Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.
If they've got other data then let them publish it.
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Do we know what Marcus is doing now?
He was a very popular contributor to this Site.
Amazing how many times he came back to me with ever more convoluted pseudo-maths proving he was going to win Torbay...
Almost as if he hoped an acknowledgement would make it happen. Silly chump should have been out canvassing instead of jousting here...
The way I see it the 45% and Tartan Tories are going to vote for the SNP which means the SNP will hold on where they are popular and win where there is an appetite for independence.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West looks like Labour's safest seat. I have a hunch, however, that East Lothian could be one that Labour hold when many with larger majorities might crumble.
These are the 12 Libdem seats (so far) where Greens did not stand in 2010 but are standing in 2015:
Cheltenham (Libdem Majority 4,920 in 2010) Cornwall North (Libdem Majority 2,981 in 2010) East Dumbartonshire (Libdem Maj 2,184 in 2010) Eastbourne (Libdem Maj 1,124 in 2010) Edinburgh West (Libdem Maj 3,803 in 2010) St Austell & Newquay (Libdem Maj 1,312 in 2010) Solihull (Libdem Maj 175) Somerton and Frome (Libdem Maj 1,817 in 2010) Taunton Deane (Libdem Maj 3,993) Thornbury & Yate (Libdem Maj 7,116) Westmoreland and Londsdale (Libdem Maj 12,264) Yeovil (Libdem Maj 13,036)
BBC covering Wales NHS worst 999 month for emergency response on record with over 50% of calls not meeting the 8 minute rate. A very thorough report indeed on the catastrophe in Wales with absolutely nothing omitted , straight for the jugular stuff.....
Oh wait a minute? ......they did forget to mention one tiny little fact .......
Comments
If not, then it may well be.
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Bizarre.
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Just YouGov tonight I take it? It's all getting a bit addictive this, and there's 3 blooming' months to go.
Hmnn. There's a big lib dem vote in that constituency....
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
Sathnam Sanghera @Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago
Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8Yth7-IAAMizJm.jpg
Personally I can't see it - they want grievance out of Westminster, not accountability.
4/9 SNP
13/8 Lab
4/9 a bet?
On that subject, this link is not to be read by Ed Miliband devotees (are there any left?)
"Will Ed Miliband find himself in the dock for stirring up hatred against himself?"
"It’s a bit late to do anything about it before the election, but the yodeling uselessness of the fellow is a crime against democracy."
"Whatever the electorate feels about the NHS, the deficit, austerity – and whatever the ostensible party lead – the electorate do not trust Ed Miliband.
Not with bacon nor with the budget.
How many MPs behind him will lose their jobs and careers on account of his cross-eyed, fan-toothed, quoit-mouthed performance at the top of the political Wallacocracy?"
http://order-order.com/2015/01/28/pmqs-eds-weapon-backfires/#more-185027
15k may be trickier.
I've decided that this is probably the last opportunity to get really good prices on the SNP if Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling shows how the SNP vote share rise translates onto the constituency map. So I'm going to increase my SNP exposure this weekend.
To reassure Pulpstar, my blood pressure will be under control on Monday. I may feel very foolish on Monday afternoon, but that's show business.
I see the argument, but the theory that "swinginess" is invariant or relatively invariant seems to me highly questionable, and I cannot see how you make allowance for the fact that people more likely to tactically vote, are also more likely to give tactical answers to VI questions.
I hope someone does a post-mortem after May 7 to determine how much this polling has actually told us.
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/UK-General-Election-2015/p119343
Time I had a lie down!
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf
Sanders well ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-trying-to-outkip-ukip-says-mp-david-lammy-over-inflammatory-immigration-leaflet-10007575.html
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
St Valentines Day Swingback Massacre still looking good.
Maybe it will be wrong, but you seem to be basing that judgement purely on wishful thinking.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2930136/Ukip-plunged-crisis-row-campaign-chief-s-criminal-past-leads-election-candidate-quitting.html
If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.
In latest batch of Ashcroft CON-LD battles the yellows had average lead of 9%.
He was a very popular contributor to this Site.
I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.
[snippet of interview on Sky]
Last time he was on here, he said he had moved on, he had spent enough time, and made enough sacrifices (financial and career wise) not to be the candidate in 2015.
He also expressed frustration with the Tory strategy in 2010.
Almost as if he hoped an acknowledgement would make it happen. Silly chump should have been out canvassing instead of jousting here...
Cheltenham (Libdem Majority 4,920 in 2010)
Cornwall North (Libdem Majority 2,981 in 2010)
East Dumbartonshire (Libdem Maj 2,184 in 2010)
Eastbourne (Libdem Maj 1,124 in 2010)
Edinburgh West (Libdem Maj 3,803 in 2010)
St Austell & Newquay (Libdem Maj 1,312 in 2010)
Solihull (Libdem Maj 175)
Somerton and Frome (Libdem Maj 1,817 in 2010)
Taunton Deane (Libdem Maj 3,993)
Thornbury & Yate (Libdem Maj 7,116)
Westmoreland and Londsdale (Libdem Maj 12,264)
Yeovil (Libdem Maj 13,036)
Source: http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/candidate-selections-for-2015-general.html & Wikipedia for 2010 info and majorities.
Being a tease like this isn't helping.
Oh wait a minute? ......they did forget to mention one tiny little fact .......
It's controlled by Labour.