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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling eve
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015
Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side.
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If not, then it may well be.
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens
The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Bizarre.
Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1
Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?
Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal
Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Just YouGov tonight I take it? It's all getting a bit addictive this, and there's 3 blooming' months to go.
Hmnn. There's a big lib dem vote in that constituency....
FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.
I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.
Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
Sathnam Sanghera @Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago
Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8Yth7-IAAMizJm.jpg
Personally I can't see it - they want grievance out of Westminster, not accountability.
4/9 SNP
13/8 Lab
4/9 a bet?
On that subject, this link is not to be read by Ed Miliband devotees (are there any left?)
"Will Ed Miliband find himself in the dock for stirring up hatred against himself?"
"It’s a bit late to do anything about it before the election, but the yodeling uselessness of the fellow is a crime against democracy."
"Whatever the electorate feels about the NHS, the deficit, austerity – and whatever the ostensible party lead – the electorate do not trust Ed Miliband.
Not with bacon nor with the budget.
How many MPs behind him will lose their jobs and careers on account of his cross-eyed, fan-toothed, quoit-mouthed performance at the top of the political Wallacocracy?"
http://order-order.com/2015/01/28/pmqs-eds-weapon-backfires/#more-185027
15k may be trickier.
I've decided that this is probably the last opportunity to get really good prices on the SNP if Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling shows how the SNP vote share rise translates onto the constituency map. So I'm going to increase my SNP exposure this weekend.
To reassure Pulpstar, my blood pressure will be under control on Monday. I may feel very foolish on Monday afternoon, but that's show business.
I see the argument, but the theory that "swinginess" is invariant or relatively invariant seems to me highly questionable, and I cannot see how you make allowance for the fact that people more likely to tactically vote, are also more likely to give tactical answers to VI questions.
I hope someone does a post-mortem after May 7 to determine how much this polling has actually told us.
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/UK-General-Election-2015/p119343
Time I had a lie down!
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf
Sanders well ahead.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-trying-to-outkip-ukip-says-mp-david-lammy-over-inflammatory-immigration-leaflet-10007575.html
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded
Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
St Valentines Day Swingback Massacre still looking good.
Maybe it will be wrong, but you seem to be basing that judgement purely on wishful thinking.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2930136/Ukip-plunged-crisis-row-campaign-chief-s-criminal-past-leads-election-candidate-quitting.html
If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.
In latest batch of Ashcroft CON-LD battles the yellows had average lead of 9%.
He was a very popular contributor to this Site.
I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.
[snippet of interview on Sky]
Last time he was on here, he said he had moved on, he had spent enough time, and made enough sacrifices (financial and career wise) not to be the candidate in 2015.
He also expressed frustration with the Tory strategy in 2010.
Almost as if he hoped an acknowledgement would make it happen. Silly chump should have been out canvassing instead of jousting here...
Cheltenham (Libdem Majority 4,920 in 2010)
Cornwall North (Libdem Majority 2,981 in 2010)
East Dumbartonshire (Libdem Maj 2,184 in 2010)
Eastbourne (Libdem Maj 1,124 in 2010)
Edinburgh West (Libdem Maj 3,803 in 2010)
St Austell & Newquay (Libdem Maj 1,312 in 2010)
Solihull (Libdem Maj 175)
Somerton and Frome (Libdem Maj 1,817 in 2010)
Taunton Deane (Libdem Maj 3,993)
Thornbury & Yate (Libdem Maj 7,116)
Westmoreland and Londsdale (Libdem Maj 12,264)
Yeovil (Libdem Maj 13,036)
Source: http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/candidate-selections-for-2015-general.html & Wikipedia for 2010 info and majorities.
Being a tease like this isn't helping.
Oh wait a minute? ......they did forget to mention one tiny little fact .......
It's controlled by Labour.