politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling eve

System · January 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up starts to what will be the biggest polling event so far in 2015

Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side.

Read the full story here

Tissue_Price · January 2015

Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?

Pulpstar · January 2015

Tissue_Price said:
Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?

Has Con Maj come in at all ?

If not, then it may well be.

MarkSenior · January 2015

Tissue_Price said:
Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?

There aren't any findings until next week !!!!!

Pulpstar · January 2015

I have one prediction - UNS is going to go out the window with this constituency polling.

Pulpstar · January 2015

MarkSenior said:

Tissue_Price said:
Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?
There aren't any public findings until next week !!!!!

Pulpstar · January 2015

If we see Viscount Thurso doing a disproportionately good job of holding on, then I think @Dair will be the poster to listen to on Scottish matters.

Artist · January 2015

I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.

Tissue_Price · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:
Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?
Has Con Maj come in at all ?

If not, then it may well be.

MarkSenior said:

Tissue_Price said:
Maybe Lab Maj is drifting on these findings?
There aren't any public findings until next week !!!!!

Quite. Con Maj steady, Lab Maj drifting (and NOM therefore shortening). Could just be a reaction to the general GB polling but it's gone from 8.5 to 11.0 in a couple of days, including a jump out today.

Tissue_Price · January 2015

.

Pulpstar · January 2015

@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back

Pulpstar · January 2015

Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~

TGOHF · January 2015

@LadPolitics: KEY SEAT UPDATE:
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens

Tissue_Price · January 2015

Pulpstar said:
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back

No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...

Richard_Nabavi · January 2015

Mind you, can you really imagine Lord A tweeting "My my, these Scottish constituency polls aren't showing anything new..."

audreyanne · January 2015

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271

Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.

Grandiose · January 2015

Isn't having Sinn Fein as your coalition partner a bit like having Santa Claus as your wingman?

Bizarre.

Scott_P · January 2015

@rosschawkins: What appears to be a UKIP branch twitter account has published a mocked up picture of Harriet Harman topless

isam · January 2015

While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it

audreyanne · January 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:
Mind you, can you really imagine Lord A tweeting "My my, these Scottish constituency polls aren't showing anything new..."

Haha!!! He's a big tease isn't he?

Just YouGov tonight I take it? It's all getting a bit addictive this, and there's 3 blooming' months to go.

Pulpstar · January 2015

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...

Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives

taffys · January 2015

Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:

Hmnn. There's a big lib dem vote in that constituency....

Pulpstar · January 2015

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it

Cover Labour minority if you can find the right odds I reckon. It's favourite for a reason (On the Labour side of the book), SNP-Conservative coalition isn't a possibility given that the SNP have ruled it out very explicitly.

audreyanne · January 2015

TGOHF said:
@LadPolitics: KEY SEAT UPDATE:
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens

Loving this constituency focus creeping in on here. That would be a great regain, and symbolic after Tony Marlow's 1997 defeat.

audreyanne · January 2015

taffys said:

Hmnn. There's a big lib dem vote in that constituency....

I'm not sure there's a big lib dem vote left anywhere, is there?

Richard_Nabavi · January 2015

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it

Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.

MikeSmithson · January 2015

audreyanne said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.

Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.

Eastwinger · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives

You'll make more money listening to Rod than betting against him.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2015

audreyanne said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Mind you, can you really imagine Lord A tweeting "My my, these Scottish constituency polls aren't showing anything new..."
Haha!!! He's a big tease isn't he?

Just YouGov tonight I take it? It's all getting a bit addictive this, and there's 3 blooming' months to go.

Opinion polls... must have opinion polls

TCPoliticalBetting · January 2015

Scott_P said:
@rosschawkins: What appears to be a UKIP branch twitter account has published a mocked up picture of Harriet Harman topless

Its ok as long as the UKIP person doing that is not from Oxbridge. I think Nige thinks that

Pulpstar · January 2015

Eastwinger said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:
@Tissue_Price Thanks for the advice to Lay Labour majority quite a while back - glad I followed it with a £100/£245 Lay off to go blood red on the "true book" a while back
No probs, it was the obvious main book play the moment those SNP leads emerged. But it was wrong even before that if you trusted Rod...
Rod Crosby is well worth listening to, but I still think he's a bit optimistic for the Conservatives
You'll make more money listening to Rod than betting against him.

You may well be right

JonnyJimmy · January 2015

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it

Are there any other parties that could join either of those coalitions and ruin it for you, greens maybe?

rcs1000 · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

audreyanne said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.

And the LibDems came first in the council elections last time out, despite: (1) not standing in all the seats thanks to their bizarre decision of not fighting Mr or Mrs Hancock, and (2) it being at the height of the Hancock scandal.

I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~

I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Pulpstar · January 2015

rcs1000 said:

MikeSmithson said:

audreyanne said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.
And the LibDems came first in the council elections last time out, despite: (1) not standing in all the seats thanks to their bizarre decision of not fighting Mr or Mrs Hancock, and (2) it being at the height of the Hancock scandal.

I would have assumed that Portsmouth South would have been a nailed on Conservative gain - but those council results suggest it might be close... unless Hancock stands as an independent.

I prefer the 1-2 on the Conservatives in Portsmouth North

Alistair · January 2015

Artist said:
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.

The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.

AlastairMeeks · January 2015

Are we discussing UKIP-related tweets?

Sathnam Sanghera ‏@Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago
Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8Yth7-IAAMizJm.jpg

Pulpstar · January 2015

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Are there any other parties that could join either of those coalitions and ruin it for you, greens maybe?

I expect Caroline Lucas to rule herself out of any coalition very very quickly.

Tissue_Price · January 2015

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it

Yes, given that you fancy the SNP to be in a coalition I think you do better your way.

Personally I can't see it - they want grievance out of Westminster, not accountability.

Pulpstar · January 2015

Alistair said:

Artist said:
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.

I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.

isam · January 2015

To win most seats in Scotland

4/9 SNP
13/8 Lab

4/9 a bet?

TCPoliticalBetting · January 2015

Agree with OGH main article that this could be a game changer for EdM.

On that subject, this link is not to be read by Ed Miliband devotees (are there any left?)
"Will Ed Miliband find himself in the dock for stirring up hatred against himself?"
"It’s a bit late to do anything about it before the election, but the yodeling uselessness of the fellow is a crime against democracy."
"Whatever the electorate feels about the NHS, the deficit, austerity – and whatever the ostensible party lead – the electorate do not trust Ed Miliband.
Not with bacon nor with the budget.
How many MPs behind him will lose their jobs and careers on account of his cross-eyed, fan-toothed, quoit-mouthed performance at the top of the political Wallacocracy?"
http://order-order.com/2015/01/28/pmqs-eds-weapon-backfires/#more-185027

Pulpstar · January 2015

Personally I think a 10k majority will be a walk in the park for the SNP.

15k may be trickier.

TheWatcher · January 2015

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Scott_P said:
@rosschawkins: What appears to be a UKIP branch twitter account has published a mocked up picture of Harriet Harman topless
Its ok as long as the UKIP person doing that is not from Oxbridge. I think Nige thinks that

It's just a bit of banter.

TCPoliticalBetting · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

audreyanne said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.

But what about Hancock standing again to hoover up another £30,000 and attract away a few thousand Lib Dems?

Pulpstar · January 2015

isam said:
To win most seats in Scotland

4/9 SNP
13/8 Lab

4/9 a bet?

Back in the constituency markets - still.

Tissue_Price · January 2015

isam said:
To win most seats in Scotland

4/9 SNP
13/8 Lab

4/9 a bet?

As things stand, yes, just. Better to wait until Ashcroft comes out and jump on whichever price is then wrong :-)

audreyanne · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

audreyanne said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
More details on why UKIP is struggling in Portsmouth. As Farage boasts, "not from Oxbridge".....
"HE is the man at the centre of a series of political rows which have seen key Ukip members quit the party. But Paul Lovegrove, the chairman of Portsmouth South Ukip and Hampshire organiser, says his criminal past gives him the experience to be able to talk competently on subjects such as prison reform and the justice system.
Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences – one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000.
After leaving the Royal Navy, he got into trouble when a family feud ended up with him grabbing a bread knife from the kitchen and slashing a man’s face in a fight."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/turmoil-for-ukip-as-members-quit-over-criminal-past-of-portsmouth-south-chairman-1-6546271
Blimey, with Paul Lovegrove and Mike Hancock the constituents of Portsmouth South could be forgiven for wondering what the bloody hell's going on.

The blues are evens with Ladbrokes. Pretty sure Conservative gain I'd say.
Tories up against against the leader of Portsmouth Council and a formidable campaigner with a strong and skilled activist base.

Interesting, and RCS1000 too.

AlastairMeeks · January 2015

Alistair said:

Artist said:
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.

I'm most interested in seeing how Labour and Lib Dem incumbents perform respectively. I have a hunch, nothing more than that, that Lib Dem incumbents may see more of a personal vote than Labour incumbents.

I've decided that this is probably the last opportunity to get really good prices on the SNP if Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling shows how the SNP vote share rise translates onto the constituency map. So I'm going to increase my SNP exposure this weekend.

To reassure Pulpstar, my blood pressure will be under control on Monday. I may feel very foolish on Monday afternoon, but that's show business.

Ishmael_X · January 2015

OblitusSumMe said:

Ishmael_X said:

MikeSmithson said:
Lots of speculation here without looking at the polling numbers.

The last two waves of Ashcroft CON-LD battlegrounds each had average swings to CON of just 2%. Now there was an awful lot of variation between the seats but they don't, as some on here are suggesting, point to big gains. Possibly 7 but maybe 10 max.

In most of these defences the LDs are far better organised with more skilled ground troops and far better databases.

Clearly where an incumbent MP like Alan Beith is standing down then it will be a harder. But the Ashcroft polling had the yellows ahead amongst alll those expressing a preference in his seat.
I don't think I am ever going to understand this. That is historical polling, however specialised and expensive and interesting it was at the time. If I want to know what the weather is going to be like tomorrow where I live, a bespoke micro-climatological forecast for my house and garden conducted by a team of met office experts, if it's more than 24 hours old, is bugger all value compared with just listening to the national forecast.
However, you can compare the historical constituency polling with the national polling at the time, so that you can calibrate a local forecast given an updated national poll.

The calibration in this instance is that the Lib-to-Con swing in Lib-Con marginals will be smaller than that in the national polls. The size of this swing may change over time, but Smithson is arguing that this calibration is invariant.

To take your weather forecast analogy, you may know that where you live tends to be a few degrees cooler in summer than the forecast for the nearest big city, because it is closer to the coast, so you can adjust the forecast for the big city appropriately.

Thanks, that is very helpful.

I see the argument, but the theory that "swinginess" is invariant or relatively invariant seems to me highly questionable, and I cannot see how you make allowance for the fact that people more likely to tactically vote, are also more likely to give tactical answers to VI questions.

I hope someone does a post-mortem after May 7 to determine how much this polling has actually told us.

Pulpstar · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.

Richard_Nabavi · January 2015

For anyone who wants to play the spreads, SpreadEx have put up seat markets, and their prices are slightly different to SPIN's. In particular they have the SNP 2 seats lower (but with a bigger spread).

https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/UK-General-Election-2015/p119343

isam · January 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.

I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"

oxfordsimon · January 2015

audreyanne said:

TGOHF said:
@LadPolitics: KEY SEAT UPDATE:
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens
Loving this constituency focus creeping in on here. That would be a great regain, and symbolic after Tony Marlow's 1997 defeat.

That is not a regain - it would be a hold. Ellis already has the seat.

audreyanne · January 2015

oxfordsimon said:

audreyanne said:

TGOHF said:
@LadPolitics: KEY SEAT UPDATE:
Tories take over as favourites in Northampton North:
10/11 @Michael_Ellis1 Con
Evs @Sally_Keeble Lab
16 UKIP
50 Greens
Loving this constituency focus creeping in on here. That would be a great regain, and symbolic after Tony Marlow's 1997 defeat.
That is not a regain - it would be a hold. Ellis already has the seat.

Ooops. So he does. Regained it in 2010.

Time I had a lie down!

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.

With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.

isam · January 2015

Labour trying to "out kip ukip" according to Lammy

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-trying-to-outkip-ukip-says-mp-david-lammy-over-inflammatory-immigration-leaflet-10007575.html

audreyanne · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.

August-September 2014's hardly that helpful Mike.

Pulpstar · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.

Fair enough, are you on Betfair's Con gains from Lib Dem market btw - Con Gains 6 - 10 @ 11-2 !!!

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Artist said:
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.

Do we know that it is coming out on Monday?

isam · January 2015

The UKIP banded seats market looking more like it now... the baseball bats have almost smashed it into shape!!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

Pulpstar · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Artist said:
I don't see why it wouldn't show anything other than big SNP gains in line with the national polling at this stage. Both in 2010 and for the last Holyrood elections, people in Scotland made up their minds very late. There may be some rays of light for Scottish Labour in the supplementary questions.
The main thing it could find that would shift the markets is big swings across Scotland but not big enough to shift the result in seats where Labour have 10k+ majorities. Basically it could show that the SNP are super-delux Lib Dems when it comes to Vote-to-Seats ratio.

I think that's a highly unlikely result but it is a possibility.

Also the two stage questions could be very favourable to incumbents.
I've seen @Antifrank's betting on this. Comments like that aren't going to help his blood pressure in his Monday meeting at work.
Do we know that it is coming out on Monday?

I thought it was, do you know different

?

Pulpstar · January 2015

isam said:
The UKIP banded seats market looking more like it now... the baseball bats have almost smashed it into shape!!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

3-4 seats still good value at 4-1 imo, 7-1 was fantastic.

MarqueeMark · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.

Not what CCHQ think....

OblitusSumMe · January 2015

audreyanne said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
August-September 2014's hardly that helpful Mike.

Neither the Conservative or Lib Dem national polling has budged significantly since then, if you go by the wikipedia graph, so what reason have you to doubt the helpfulness of the poll of Torbay?

MikeSmithson · January 2015

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Fair enough, are you on Betfair's Con gains from Lib Dem market btw - Con Gains 6 - 10 @ 11-2 !!!

Good bet with a safety cover on 11-15

Dair · January 2015

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Are there any other parties that could join either of those coalitions and ruin it for you, greens maybe?
I expect Caroline Lucas to rule herself out of any coalition very very quickly.

The SNP and Plaid aren't seperable so if the bookie considers it Lab/SNP/Plaid the bet is a loser. The Greens are indicating they will have a post election pact with the SNP/Plaid bloc.

Dair · January 2015

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"

Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).

MarqueeMark · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.

And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.

Paul_Mid_Beds · January 2015

Ref previous short lived thread: "A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter"

St Valentines Day Swingback Massacre still looking good.

OblitusSumMe · January 2015

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.

Lord Ashcroft's poll suggests otherwise.

Maybe it will be wrong, but you seem to be basing that judgement purely on wishful thinking.

Scott_P · January 2015

@joeyjonessky: On @SkyNewsTonight a (very) rare interview with @LordAshcroft days before his much-anticipated "snapshot" of Scottish seats.

Moses_ · January 2015

MeanwhIle UKIP run into more "issues"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2930136/Ukip-plunged-crisis-row-campaign-chief-s-criminal-past-leads-election-candidate-quitting.html

isam · January 2015

Dair said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).

So whats the answer?!

Paul_Mid_Beds · January 2015

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.

Additionally I notice David Laws Yeovil consituency has a Green canditate standing for the first time since 2001 which won't help him at all. He could well lose to the tories due to the libdem vote fracturing into UKIP, Lab and Green.

If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.

Dair · January 2015

isam said:

Dair said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
So whats the answer?!

Bookies always win this bet?

isam · January 2015

Dair said:

isam said:

Dair said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:
While we have some genuine betting shrewdies on, have I done the right thing backing

Lab & SNP Coalition 10/1
Lab, LD & SNP tripartite 25/1

Rather than Any Coalition involving SNP at 5/1?

Im on at 6.75/1... but obv lose if its a Con/SNP deal

Forget the political possibility of it, I am talking about the betting strategy, I obviously fancy it and have backed it
Dunno if I count as a 'genuine betting shrewdy', , but surely you can't forget the politics of it? Your strategy (assuming you want to back the SNP entering a coalition at all) is good if the probability of a Con-SNP coalition is very low, but not if it's a realistic possibility.

FWIW I think the probability of a Con-SNP coalition (as opposed to some kind of deal) is as close to zero as anything in political betting can be.
I guess the question I should've asked was "What price SNP involved in a coalition other than the two I backed?"
Yes because you don't get the SNP without Plaid at least (and probably the greens).
So whats the answer?!
Bookies always win this bet?

The question is "What price a coalition involving the SNP that isn't w Lab or w Lab & LD?"

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
And since Marcus was the candidate, the LibDems have lost nearly two thirds of their votes nationally. Torbay is not peculiarly immune to that trend.
Additionally I notice David Laws Yeovil consituency has a Green canditate standing for the first time since 2001 which won't help him at all. He could well lose to the tories due to the libdem vote fracturing into UKIP, Lab and Green.

If this is repeated at Torbay it will similarly fracture the liberal dem vote further and let the tories in, even if they get less votes than they got in 2010.

National vote shares irrelevant.

In latest batch of Ashcroft CON-LD battles the yellows had average lead of 9%.

Socrates · January 2015

antifrank said:
Are we discussing UKIP-related tweets?

Sathnam Sanghera ‏@Sathnam · 2h2 hours ago
Saddened to report I've had an official complaint from UKIP press office about something I tweeted last night.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8Yth7-IAAMizJm.jpg

Happy to be corrected, but it was my understanding that the politician in question didn't deny the Holocaust, but his party leader had questioned it.

chestnut · January 2015

There is a spectacular uplift in the LD Torbay numbers when the supplementary question is posed. Not sure where they are coming from because its noticeably more than the losses of Con/UKIP/Lab/Grn combined.

Peter_the_Punter · January 2015

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.

Do we know what Marcus is doing now?

He was a very popular contributor to this Site.

Pong · January 2015

Before the Ashcroft polls ruin the fun, does anyone want a bet on how much of the labour vote goes to the SNP in labours safest seat?

I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.

Easterross · January 2015

Evening all and I see Shadsy has confirmed the Tories are now favourites in Northampton North. I wonder how many more seats will move to the "blue" column before 7th May.

MikeSmithson · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Do we know what Marcus is doing now?

He was a very popular contributor to this Site.

I suspect that Marcus is making his fortune

RodCrosby · January 2015

Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]

Richard_Nabavi · January 2015

Pong said:
I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.

Yes, but which one?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Do we know what Marcus is doing now?

He was a very popular contributor to this Site.

Focussing on his non political career

Last time he was on here, he said he had moved on, he had spent enough time, and made enough sacrifices (financial and career wise) not to be the candidate in 2015.

He also expressed frustration with the Tory strategy in 2010.

RodCrosby · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:
Amusingly I'm +£49.99 on my Betfair exchange on Labour majority, the wonders of using multiple bookies... ^_~
I'm all green with a totally balanced book and I plan to keep it that way.

Which do you think will be the closest Lib Dem - Conservative battle of the night, Mike - I reckon Torbay.
With CON-LD battles check table 5 on Lord A polling which has the all with voting intention number. These likely to give better guide than the turnout weighted ones as happened in Eastleigh.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Torbay-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Sanders well ahead.
Not what CCHQ think....

If they've got other data then let them publish it.

Torbay is always the seats that the blues have high hopes of winning and one where they fail. Longstanding PBers will recall that Marcus Wood was CON candidate.
Do we know what Marcus is doing now?

He was a very popular contributor to this Site.

Amazing how many times he came back to me with ever more convoluted pseudo-maths proving he was going to win Torbay...

Almost as if he hoped an acknowledgement would make it happen. Silly chump should have been out canvassing instead of jousting here...

Pong · January 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pong said:
I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.
Yes, but which one?

Coatbridge or ruthergen would be the obvious guesses, but who knows?

Richard_Nabavi · January 2015

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pong said:
I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.
Yes, but which one?
Coatbridge?

If any bookies are listening in: how about an SNP 'firewall' market?

MaxPB · January 2015

RodCrosby said:
Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]

Labour = F*****

RodCrosby · January 2015

MaxPB said:

RodCrosby said:
Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]
Labour = F*****

He specifically mentioned "Glasgow" too...

Pong · January 2015

MaxPB said:

RodCrosby said:
Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]
Labour = F*****

PP have put their SNP bar up to U/O 34.5

MaxPB · January 2015

RodCrosby said:

MaxPB said:

RodCrosby said:
Ashcroft believes SNP surge is "real"...

[snippet of interview on Sky]
Labour = F*****
He specifically mentioned "Glasgow" too...

The way I see it the 45% and Tartan Tories are going to vote for the SNP which means the SNP will hold on where they are popular and win where there is an appetite for independence.

AlastairMeeks · January 2015

Rutherglen & Hamilton West looks like Labour's safest seat. I have a hunch, however, that East Lothian could be one that Labour hold when many with larger majorities might crumble.

Paul_Mid_Beds · January 2015

These are the 12 Libdem seats (so far) where Greens did not stand in 2010 but are standing in 2015:

Cheltenham (Libdem Majority 4,920 in 2010)
Cornwall North (Libdem Majority 2,981 in 2010)
East Dumbartonshire (Libdem Maj 2,184 in 2010)
Eastbourne (Libdem Maj 1,124 in 2010)
Edinburgh West (Libdem Maj 3,803 in 2010)
St Austell & Newquay (Libdem Maj 1,312 in 2010)
Solihull (Libdem Maj 175)
Somerton and Frome (Libdem Maj 1,817 in 2010)
Taunton Deane (Libdem Maj 3,993)
Thornbury & Yate (Libdem Maj 7,116)
Westmoreland and Londsdale (Libdem Maj 12,264)
Yeovil (Libdem Maj 13,036)

Source: http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/candidate-selections-for-2015-general.html & Wikipedia for 2010 info and majorities.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

On topic, ferfuxsake your Lordship, some of us are balls deep in our Scotland bets.

Being a tease like this isn't helping.

Carnyx · January 2015

Pong said:
Before the Ashcroft polls ruin the fun, does anyone want a bet on how much of the labour vote goes to the SNP in labours safest seat?

I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.

Presumably you mean Scottish constituencies ...

Moses_ · January 2015

BBC covering Wales NHS worst 999 month for emergency response on record with over 50% of calls not meeting the 8 minute rate. A very thorough report indeed on the catastrophe in Wales with absolutely nothing omitted , straight for the jugular stuff.....

Oh wait a minute? ......they did forget to mention one tiny little fact .......

It's controlled by Labour.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Carnyx said:

Pong said:
Before the Ashcroft polls ruin the fun, does anyone want a bet on how much of the labour vote goes to the SNP in labours safest seat?

I recon, however bad it gets for labour, they'll still have a 10%+ lead over the SNP in at least one constituency in May.
Presumably you mean Scottish constituencies ...

No he means the constituencies in England that the SNP are standing in.

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