Is Corbyn’s new party just too posh to appeal the voters? – politicalbetting.com

System · August 7

Is Corbyn’s new party just too posh to appeal the voters? – politicalbetting.com

Why is Corbyn's new party full of private school kids? And why did its MPs vote against VAT on private schools? Socialism is just a hobby for this mixture of Islamists and toffs … ?? https://t.co/YoOQB25Ncl

Read the full story here

rcs1000 · August 7

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)

Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.

wooliedyed · August 7

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.

I don't think the LDs are likely to be up on their 2024 share. Crowded left of centre field and no USP

MarqueeMark · August 7

Too posh to push poll?

rcs1000 · August 7

Barnesian said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
The ten LD gains would be as follows:
All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.

Godalming and Ash
Farnham and Bordon
East Hampshire
North Dorset
Romsey and Southampton North
North Cotswolds
Salisbury
Mid Buckinghamshire
Beaconsfield
Sheffield Hallam

Romsey South & Southampton North is a classic example of a LD gain you'd expect to see in 2029.

In 2024 it was:

Con 39
LD 35
Reform 11
Labour 9
Green 4

But we know that a substantial number of Conservative voters have gone Reform. Even if there's some recovery for Kemi's Party, and even if Reform falls back somewhat, I'd be very surprised if Reform didn't make it into the 20s, almost entirely at the expense of the Conservatives.

And then you have an unpopular Labour Party. The LDs are highly likely to be able to eat into some of the 9%, even if the Greens get more.

I'd reckon it'd almost certainly end up with the LDs on around 39, with Labour losing their deposit, and the Conservatives and Reform juking it out in the high 20s.

MarqueeMark · August 7

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.

Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."

rcs1000 · August 7

wooliedyed said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
I don't think the LDs are likely to be up on their 2024 share. Crowded left of centre field and no USP

Labour is down, and at least some of those voters are going to the LDs.

Big_G_NorthWales · August 7

FPT

HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too

............................................................................................................................................................
Good afternoon

Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news

The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together

Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce

Newcastle must be very downhearted today

boulay · August 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FPT

HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too

............................................................................................................................................................
Good afternoon

Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news

The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together

Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce

Newcastle must be very downhearted today

I hear that even Bonnie Blue has turned down Newcastle.

HYUFD · August 7

Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government

rcs1000 · August 7

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."

With all due respect, all Reform needs to say is:

"Look at the country! Rising taxes, rising crime, and the place is full of feckless immigrants that the last Conservative administration let in"

Now, the fact that they don't have any answers to the structural problems facing Britain (caused by a worsening dependency ratio, a fucked up tax and benefits system, and an educational system that does a poor job getting people the skills they need) is by-the-by.

Peter_the_Punter · August 7

rcs1000 said:

Barnesian said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
The ten LD gains would be as follows:
All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.

Godalming and Ash
Farnham and Bordon
East Hampshire
North Dorset
Romsey and Southampton North
North Cotswolds
Salisbury
Mid Buckinghamshire
Beaconsfield
Sheffield Hallam
Romsey South & Southampton North is a classic example of a LD gain you'd expect to see in 2029.

In 2024 it was:

Con 39
LD 35
Reform 11
Labour 9
Green 4

But we know that a substantial number of Conservative voters have gone Reform. Even if there's some recovery for Kemi's Party, and even if Reform falls back somewhat, I'd be very surprised if Reform didn't make it into the 20s, almost entirely at the expense of the Conservatives.

And then you have an unpopular Labour Party. The LDs are highly likely to be able to eat into some of the 9%, even if the Greens get more.

I'd reckon it'd almost certainly end up with the LDs on around 39, with Labour losing their deposit, and the Conservatives and Reform juking it out in the high 20s.

North Cotswolds is the only surviving Conservative seat in Gloucestershire and this owes much to the popularity of the sitting MP, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown. If he retires, it almost certainly goes LD.

HYUFD · August 7

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.

Agreed, the Tories are more likely to gain narrowly Leave Labour marginal seats than Remain LD seats

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

HYUFD said:
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government

The criticism isn't that Corbyn is posh because he isn't, is that his band of merry men always seem to be and its a "luxury belief" for them. Corbyn on the other hand, he is a true believer. He divorced his first wife over where to send the kids to school.

TheScreamingEagles · August 7

boulay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FPT

HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too

............................................................................................................................................................
Good afternoon

Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news

The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together

Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce

Newcastle must be very downhearted today
I hear that even Bonnie Blue has turned down Newcastle.

Who?

Is he a Scottish footballer?

Never heard of him, let me google ‘Bonnie
Blue’.

Benpointer · August 7

O/T especially for @Leon:

Leon said:
Btw where is @Benpointer?

Not been seen for a while. Hope he’s good. We need an update on his self build house

I'm very good thanks but 100% absorbed in house build, so I've not got much time for PB at present. Hope to get back on here a bit more in the autumn.

Meanwhile in house build news: we have a house. This from two weeks ago:

Here's a blog from from the week the frame went up: https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/entry/1096-week-7-we-have-a-house/

And for those seeking extra punishment the full bloggy set us here:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/blog/87-contemporary-build-in-north-dorset/

Enjoy!

wooliedyed · August 7

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
I don't think the LDs are likely to be up on their 2024 share. Crowded left of centre field and no USP
Labour is down, and at least some of those voters are going to the LDs.

YouGov has them generally holding on to about 75 to 80% of their 2024 vote and picking up about 10% of Labs 2024 vote.
I expect them to lose some club 18 30 votes to the Fruits and I currently think ca 11% is likely to be their next election vote total for reasons stated. Obviously time will tell but there seems to me to be an unrealistic expectation that the LDs can repeat the vote efficiency they achieved in 2024 and retain the anti Tory tactical votes now the Tories are out.
If I wrong I'll lose money (and obviously ill change my stance if the polling or circs change)

Benpointer · August 7

Deleted

Big_G_NorthWales · August 7

Benpointer said:
O/T especially for @Leon:

Leon said:
Btw where is @Benpointer?

Not been seen for a while. Hope he’s good. We need an update on his self build house
I'm very good thanks but 100% absorbed in house build, so I've not got much time for PB at present. Hope to get back on here a bit more in the autumn.

Meanwhile in house build news: we have a house. This from two weeks ago:

Here's a blog from from the week the frame went up: https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/entry/1096-week-7-we-have-a-house/

And for those seeking extra punishment the full bloggy set us here:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/blog/87-contemporary-build-in-north-dorset/

Enjoy!

That is amazing

Many congratulations on your initiative

Nigelb · August 7

Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

TheScreamingEagles said:

boulay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FPT

HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too

............................................................................................................................................................
Good afternoon

Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news

The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together

Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce

Newcastle must be very downhearted today
I hear that even Bonnie Blue has turned down Newcastle.
Who?

Is he a Scottish footballer?

Never heard of him, let me google ‘Bonnie
Blue’.

Whoever their manager is, they have done an incredible job.

Leon · August 7

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."

There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

Sandpit · August 7

Benpointer said:
O/T especially for @Leon:

Leon said:
Btw where is @Benpointer?

Not been seen for a while. Hope he’s good. We need an update on his self build house
I'm very good thanks but 100% absorbed in house build, so I've not got much time for PB at present. Hope to get back on here a bit more in the autumn.

Meanwhile in house build news: we have a house. This from two weeks ago:

Here's a blog from from the week the frame went up: https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/entry/1096-week-7-we-have-a-house/

And for those seeking extra punishment the full bloggy set us here:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/blog/87-contemporary-build-in-north-dorset/

Enjoy!

That looks great! Sounds like a fun project.

Big_G_NorthWales · August 7

Apparently Sesko's fee is lower than Newcastle offered and who had Champions league football to offer

Barnesian · August 7

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.

Omnium · August 7

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

It'd all be so easy if full sanctions were pressed on Russia. No trade, no movement, no anything. Close all their embassies, close all their business interests, deport all their citizens.

boulay · August 7

TheScreamingEagles said:

boulay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FPT

HYUFD said:

» show previous quotes
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too

............................................................................................................................................................
Good afternoon

Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news

The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together

Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce

Newcastle must be very downhearted today
I hear that even Bonnie Blue has turned down Newcastle.
Who?

Is he a Scottish footballer?

Never heard of him, let me google ‘Bonnie
Blue’.

If you google “Bonnie Blue in the box” you will get some good footage of the art of finishing and banging it in.

TOPPING · August 7

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.

tlg86 · August 7

@TheScreamingEagles - your grandfather wasn't automatically middle class because he was a doctor. Your father was automatically middle class because he was a doctor.

EDITED: misread to begin with, but the point is class is about your parents not you.

MarqueeMark · August 7

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

Flatten their oil industry, Ukraine.

Then dictate your terms.

Leon · August 7

Benpointer said:
O/T especially for @Leon:

Leon said:
Btw where is @Benpointer?

Not been seen for a while. Hope he’s good. We need an update on his self build house
I'm very good thanks but 100% absorbed in house build, so I've not got much time for PB at present. Hope to get back on here a bit more in the autumn.

Meanwhile in house build news: we have a house. This from two weeks ago:

Here's a blog from from the week the frame went up: https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/entry/1096-week-7-we-have-a-house/

And for those seeking extra punishment the full bloggy set us here:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/blogs/blog/87-contemporary-build-in-north-dorset/

Enjoy!

Nice! Keep up the sterling work

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

Things to look forward to...

Bank of England cuts interest rates as it warns food costs could push inflation to 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/07/bank-of-england-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-4

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates

MattW · August 7

Auto Shenanigans on the £100 million per mile (ish) A14. I go down there occasionally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUR-TQg99pg

Can @JosiasJessop tell us whether it is actually such a Godalmighty Eff-up as implied?

The maintenance only accesses are annoying.

HYUFD · August 7

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

It also has 44% of voters opposing zero new immigrants and remigration and a larger 56% wanting a system 'whereby immigration is substantially reduced, but people are still allowed to come in and no one is removed (32 per cent opposed that).'

https://conservativehome.com/2025/08/06/patrick-english-public-attitudes-on-immigration-depend-a-lot-on-which-immigrants-youre-asking-about/

wooliedyed · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Things to look forward to...

Bank of England cuts interest rates as it warns food costs could push inflation to 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/07/bank-of-england-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-4

BofE warns BofEs rate cut could push inflation higher.
'You should have stopped us'

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

Wally with a brolly,

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/59ee674c94cba99d881a3f6360fb258013bf3887/0_0_7040_4688/master/7040.jpg

HYUFD · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates

Or more to the point, her programmer, Gordon Brown, has suggested that and she has followed through

MarqueeMark · August 7

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

If 45% of voters say they want zero new migrants, why is Farage such a drag on the Fash vote?

Omnium · August 7

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates
Or more to the point, her programmer, Gordon Brown, has suggested that and she has followed through

Brown is such an arse.

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates
Or more to the point, her programmer, Gordon Brown, has suggested that and she has followed through

A more cynical take would be is that its a coordinated approach with Gordon Brown to sell the policy as again think of the children and when I was in power, child poverty was eliminated...

I predicted gambling would get hammered as soon as Labour got in. Their outriders have been pushing this for ages.

algarkirk · August 7

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

This needs a bit of unravelling. There is very widespread rational support for low levels of inward migration given the very high levels we have had since Brexit - with its big promise of border control + the problem of asylum seekers fleeing the tyanny of France. OTOH there is little point in artifically controlling genuine students coming in, as long as they return afterwards.

This is separate in every way from the concept of remigration, which may well sound splendid in opinion polls but is complex. The concept of remigration is a variable. At one end of the spectrum is the fact that there is an absolute right to leave this country voluntarily applying to everyone. At the other end of the remigration spectrum is deportation, ethnic cleansing, compulsion and authoritarianism.

Polling on this is irrelevant unless it is qualitative rather than quantitative.

StillWaters · August 7

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

Why would Ukraine accept this?

Nigelb · August 7

That is hideous.
The things on the tables look like giant dildos.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1953420468419006838

Sean_F · August 7

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.

@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.

Cookie · August 7

HYUFD said:
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government

Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1953456219433455898

LIVE5TREAM THURSDAY 10AM PT
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1953139020231569685

ChatGPT 5....keep calm Leon, keep calm.

kinabalu · August 7

There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.

TheScreamingEagles · August 7

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration

The Spectator are talking shite.

A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK 🧵/

Results link in following tweets

https://x.com/yougov/status/1952642041868890155?s=46

Nigelb · August 7

"We're going to look at that"
Sure.

Reporter: You were the driving force behind operation warp speed, the MRNA vaccines that are the gold standard. Your health secretary is pulling back all the funding for research. He is saying that the risks outweigh the benefits, which puts him at odds with the entire medical community and you.

Trump: Research on what?

Reporter: MRNA Vaccines

Trump: We’re going to look at that. Operation warp speed, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, considered one of the most incredible things ever done in this country. We are looking at other answers to other problems, other sicknesses and diseases. And I think we are doing really well.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1953211292988391922

ydoethur · August 7

MarqueeMark said:
Too posh to push poll?

Any time somebody Caesar'n opportunity to pun, he seizes it.

Nigelb · August 7

StillWaters said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
Why would Ukraine accept this?

Putin will accept the first four.
Trump will call that "progress".

StillWaters · August 7

Nigelb said:
That is hideous.
The things on the tables look like giant dildos.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1953420468419006838

Presumably he will rent them out by the hour?

DecrepiterJohnL · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates

Reform's number-crunchers are busily calculating how many large families have immigrant parents.

Either that or someone will pluck a number off the side of a bus.

kinabalu · August 7

Nigelb said:
"We're going to look at that"
Sure.

Reporter: You were the driving force behind operation warp speed, the MRNA vaccines that are the gold standard. Your health secretary is pulling back all the funding for research. He is saying that the risks outweigh the benefits, which puts him at odds with the entire medical community and you.

Trump: Research on what?

Reporter: MRNA Vaccines

Trump: We’re going to look at that. Operation warp speed, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, considered one of the most incredible things ever done in this country. We are looking at other answers to other problems, other sicknesses and diseases. And I think we are doing really well.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1953211292988391922

Gibberish basically. A word salad. The value in talking to him is not obvious to me.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Wally with a brolly,

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/59ee674c94cba99d881a3f6360fb258013bf3887/0_0_7040_4688/master/7040.jpg

Link broken:-

Error 401 Unauthorized - missing signature
Unauthorized - missing signature

Error 54113
Details: cache-lhr-egll1980082-LHR 1754580808 30292246

Varnish cache server

Interesting trivia for non-nerds, networking kit is traditionally named after the nearest airport, from which we can conclude the cache server is in the London area because LHR is Heathrow airport. OK, dull trivia.

stodge · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates
Or more to the point, her programmer, Gordon Brown, has suggested that and she has followed through
A more cynical take would be is that its a coordinated approach with Gordon Brown to sell the policy as again think of the children and when I was in power, child poverty was eliminated...

I predicted gambling would get hammered as soon as Labour got in. Their outriders have been pushing this for ages.

To an extent, there has been a public reaction against gambling which manifested during the Conservative years and primarily as a result of FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) in bookmakers. If you go into many bookies these days, you won't find the punters crpowding round the Racing Post and looking at the 112x1p reverse forecast doubles bet on the BAGS card at Romford - the gamblers, as distinct from the punters, will be all over the FOBTs.

The rearguard action from horse racing seems to be saying to the Govenrment you can't treat betting on horse racing the same as betting on games of chance and while that may be true, it won't cut much ice with this Government. As I said this morning, we've also had the doom-laden prophecies of lost jobs but this is a game racing has played before.

Bookmakers, especially the High Street firms, look full of money and that makes them an easy target but taxing their profits impacts more widely. I do think the bookmakers themselves need to adopt a more humble attitude - the next step may very well be the banning of advertising by gambling operations - and accept it's not just about brightly coloured shops and signs.

Leon · August 7

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
The Spectator are talking shite.

A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK 🧵/

Results link in following tweets

https://x.com/yougov/status/1952642041868890155?s=46

British people also and consistently UNDERestimate the scale of net migration - often by a factor of ten

I wonder how many truly understand that we were letting in ~1m a year very recently. Probably not that many because it came as a shock of Rory “centrist dork” Stewart, who was an actual Tory MP when it happened

lol

The more interesting point is that the British voter is now probably to the right of Farage on this issue, let alone Badenoch and Starmer

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Wally with a brolly,

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/59ee674c94cba99d881a3f6360fb258013bf3887/0_0_7040_4688/master/7040.jpg
Link broken:-

Error 401 Unauthorized - missing signature
Unauthorized - missing signature

Error 54113
Details: cache-lhr-egll1980082-LHR 1754580808 30292246

Varnish cache server

Interesting trivia for non-nerds, networking kit is traditionally named after the nearest airport, from which we can conclude the cache server is in the London area because LHR is Heathrow airport. OK, dull trivia.

Strange, but its here as well...

Rachel Reeves at a coal tip in Port Talbot
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates

Leon · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1953456219433455898

LIVE5TREAM THURSDAY 10AM PT
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1953139020231569685

ChatGPT 5....keep calm Leon, keep calm.

I’ve literally taken a Tramadol

DecrepiterJohnL · August 7

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:
"We're going to look at that"
Sure.

Reporter: You were the driving force behind operation warp speed, the MRNA vaccines that are the gold standard. Your health secretary is pulling back all the funding for research. He is saying that the risks outweigh the benefits, which puts him at odds with the entire medical community and you.

Trump: Research on what?

Reporter: MRNA Vaccines

Trump: We’re going to look at that. Operation warp speed, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, considered one of the most incredible things ever done in this country. We are looking at other answers to other problems, other sicknesses and diseases. And I think we are doing really well.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1953211292988391922
Gibberish basically. A word salad. The value in talking to him is not obvious to me.

The value is it might focus Trump's attention long enough to overrule RFK Jr. Or it might not but what's the downside?

kinabalu · August 7

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates
Or more to the point, her programmer, Gordon Brown, has suggested that and she has followed through
A more cynical take would be is that its a coordinated approach with Gordon Brown to sell the policy as again think of the children and when I was in power, child poverty was eliminated...

I predicted gambling would get hammered as soon as Labour got in. Their outriders have been pushing this for ages.
To an extent, there has been a public reaction against gambling which manifested during the Conservative years and primarily as a result of FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) in bookmakers. If you go into many bookies these days, you won't find the punters crpowding round the Racing Post and looking at the 112x1p reverse forecast doubles bet on the BAGS card at Romford - the gamblers, as distinct from the punters, will be all over the FOBTs.

The rearguard action from horse racing seems to be saying to the Govenrment you can't treat betting on horse racing the same as betting on games of chance and while that may be true, it won't cut much ice with this Government. As I said this morning, we've also had the doom-laden prophecies of lost jobs but this is a game racing has played before.

Bookmakers, especially the High Street firms, look full of money and that makes them an easy target but taxing their profits impacts more widely. I do think the bookmakers themselves need to adopt a more humble attitude - the next step may very well be the banning of advertising by gambling operations - and accept it's not just about brightly coloured shops and signs.

Some of these firms have been coining it. Eg Flutter - this is easily the best performer in my portfolio. It's gone up 500% in the last few years.

Sean_F · August 7

kinabalu said:
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.

Laura Trevelyan is a good example.

MattW · August 7

StillWaters said:

Nigelb said:
That is hideous.
The things on the tables look like giant dildos.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1953420468419006838
Presumably he will rent them out by the hour?

Rhyl esplanade strikes again.

Leon · August 7

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.

You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT

Dura_Ace · August 7

Sean_F said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.

The same goes for the Green Goblin too. If he accepted those terms for Ukraine, which are better than any he will get 12 months hence, then there is a sporting chance that some Right Sektor ultra-nationalist like Biletsky will kill him.

Putin also needs a LOT more than that to market the SMO as a success so it suits both their interests to keep fighting for now.

tlg86 · August 7

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
The same goes for the Green Goblin too. If he accepted those terms for Ukraine, which are better than any he will get 12 months hence, then there is a sporting chance that some Right Sektor ultra-nationalist like Biletsky will kill him.

Putin also needs a LOT more than that to market the SMO as a success so it suits both their interests to keep fighting for now.

Surely Zelensky retires to a country of his choosing. Not sure Putin has that option.

kinabalu · August 7

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:
"We're going to look at that"
Sure.

Reporter: You were the driving force behind operation warp speed, the MRNA vaccines that are the gold standard. Your health secretary is pulling back all the funding for research. He is saying that the risks outweigh the benefits, which puts him at odds with the entire medical community and you.

Trump: Research on what?

Reporter: MRNA Vaccines

Trump: We’re going to look at that. Operation warp speed, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, considered one of the most incredible things ever done in this country. We are looking at other answers to other problems, other sicknesses and diseases. And I think we are doing really well.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1953211292988391922
Gibberish basically. A word salad. The value in talking to him is not obvious to me.
The value is it might focus Trump's attention long enough to overrule RFK Jr. Or it might not but what's the downside?

If you ask him something you have to listen to the answer and it'll go on forever sometimes. It only encourages him. It's a vicious circle. The more attention he gets, the more energy and affirmation he draws from it and the more attention he demands. So on and on we go. The end state of this trajectory is every news story is about him, and our communal headspace is filled with nothing but his moronic nonsensical ramblings. I'd like to see some fightback against this. People should just stare at him in silence. Don't say a word. Stop feeding him.

ydoethur · August 7

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
The same goes for the Green Goblin too. If he accepted those terms for Ukraine, which are better than any he will get 12 months hence, then there is a sporting chance that some Right Sektor ultra-nationalist like Biletsky will kill him.

Putin also needs a LOT more than that to market the SMO as a success so it suits both their interests to keep fighting for now.

Question. If the war ends in a truce, does that end the martial law and mean there will be new elections, which would end Zelensky's career? Or would he be able to continue with them on the grounds that about 30% of Ukraine is still occupied? (That didn't seem to apply to Crimea, but that was a slightly different case.)

Leon · August 7

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT

I've been flagged for this, lol

Andy_JS · August 7

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."

3 years for them to reach 40% as well.

Andy_JS · August 7

kinabalu said:
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.

On the other side of the coin, it's probably difficult to feel guilty about money if you're, say, a white van driver who does everything yourself and makes a decent living from it without being particularly wealthy.

Leon · August 7

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?

Dura_Ace · August 7

tlg86 said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
The same goes for the Green Goblin too. If he accepted those terms for Ukraine, which are better than any he will get 12 months hence, then there is a sporting chance that some Right Sektor ultra-nationalist like Biletsky will kill him.

Putin also needs a LOT more than that to market the SMO as a success so it suits both their interests to keep fighting for now.
Surely Zelensky retires to a country of his choosing. Not sure Putin has that option.

Z is also under pressure from the anti-EU wing of the choleric Ukrainian nationalists led by Timoshenko in the Rada and whoever the fuck is orchestrating the Yermak hatchet pieces in Western media.

kinabalu · August 7

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.
Laura Trevelyan is a good example.

Yes, I could probably be friends with her. It depends though. I don't like too much stridency in a person.

wooliedyed · August 7

I was just thinking about next years Norfolk council elections and the Norfolk Suffolk mayoralty.
Ive got a sneaking suspicion Rupert Lowe will run (on some sort of tie in with the Tories)

Stuartinromford · August 7

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.

And he did go to an independent prep school.

kinabalu · August 7

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?

Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.

Leon · August 7

Stuartinromford said:

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.

And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house

PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others

To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure

ydoethur · August 7

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?

Or possibly someone on an iPad with fat finger touch? (No, it wasn't me, by the way.)

Dura_Ace · August 7

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
Both sides are exhausted.
Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
@Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
The same goes for the Green Goblin too. If he accepted those terms for Ukraine, which are better than any he will get 12 months hence, then there is a sporting chance that some Right Sektor ultra-nationalist like Biletsky will kill him.

Putin also needs a LOT more than that to market the SMO as a success so it suits both their interests to keep fighting for now.
Question. If the war ends in a truce, does that end the martial law and mean there will be new elections, which would end Zelensky's career? Or would he be able to continue with them on the grounds that about 30% of Ukraine is still occupied? (That didn't seem to apply to Crimea, but that was a slightly different case.)

Dunno. The constitutional proscription against elections during martial law only applies to the Rada not the Presidential election. In reality power has been massively centralised on the office of the President during the course of the SMO so the law will be whatever he says it is. The only checks and balances left are popular protest (Cf the recent cardboard revolution) or the assassin's bullet (watch this space).

Fishing · August 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates

Tax and spend, spend and tax.

She has absolutely no other ideas.

Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.

But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.

Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.

Leon · August 7

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.

Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough

kinabalu · August 7

Andy_JS said:

kinabalu said:
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.
On the other side of the coin, it's probably difficult to feel guilty about money if you're, say, a white van driver who does everything yourself and makes a decent living from it without being particularly wealthy.

True. Although there is white (van) privilege of course.

kinabalu · August 7

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough

I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.

Leon · August 7

Fishing said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Reeves confirms Treasury reviewing gambling taxes.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/07/defence-spending-gordon-brown-interest-rates-immigration-labour-uk-politics-live-news-updates
Tax and spend, spend and tax.

She has absolutely no other ideas.

Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.

But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.

Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.

The only upside to Rachel Tiny Tears is that she is steering the ship of state ever faster, and evermore speedily, into the fiscal iceberg. So the reckoning - which is, sadly, inevitable and maybe necessary - will come sooner rather than later. Probably during this government?

ydoethur · August 7

Stuartinromford said:

Cookie said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.

That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.

Adams Grammar was also a Voluntary Aided School - in effect, a private school subsidised by state payments (slightly different from the model we have now). It also had (and still has) boarding for which fees were paid, although I don't think Corbyn was a boarder.

It was very different from a comprehensive or even a mainstream grammar.

Leon · August 7

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.

Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah

ydoethur · August 7

Whoever is doing the flagging is risking the wrath of the Radiohead Reverer. He gets annoyed when his inbox is spammed with notifications like that.

kjh · August 7

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?

It was probably an error. I've certainly hit the wrong buttons on my phone and then corrected it before now.

carnforth · August 7

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
This needs a bit of unravelling. There is very widespread rational support for low levels of inward migration given the very high levels we have had since Brexit - with its big promise of border control + the problem of asylum seekers fleeing the tyanny of France. OTOH there is little point in artifically controlling genuine students coming in, as long as they return afterwards.

This is separate in every way from the concept of remigration, which may well sound splendid in opinion polls but is complex. The concept of remigration is a variable. At one end of the spectrum is the fact that there is an absolute right to leave this country voluntarily applying to everyone. At the other end of the remigration spectrum is deportation, ethnic cleansing, compulsion and authoritarianism.

Polling on this is irrelevant unless it is qualitative rather than quantitative.

16000/108000 asylum applicants last year were already here on student visas.

Now, the success rate may be low. And some may be genuine. But it's a problem of some scale.

ydoethur · August 7

Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.

The military think he is a moron.

The opposition think he is off his rocker.

The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.

The courts think he's a crook.

And Hamas probably think he's a hero.

kinabalu · August 7

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah

As opposed to the larger number who are mad to start with.

kinabalu · August 7

My post saying I never flag has been flagged!

The implications are dizzying.

Leon · August 7

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
As opposed to the larger number who are mad to start with.

Well, yes

The rates of neurodiversity on here must be off the dial. And I very much count myself in that. Narcissisic, addiction-prone, somewhat bipolar, insane risk-taking impulsivity, weirdly rude to people I've never met

Hey ho. It gets us through the day

wooliedyed · August 7

kinabalu said:
My post saying I never flag has been flagged!

The implications are dizzying.

Flagging must be reserved for hilarity like flagging someone who is clearly a bit irritated to try and tip them over.
Real flagging is for Kemi and the other grasses

wooliedyed · August 7

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
As opposed to the larger number who are mad to start with.
Well, yes

The rates of neurodiversity on here must be off the dial. And I very much count myself in that. Narcissisic, addiction-prone, somewhat bipolar, insane risk-taking impulsivity, weirdly rude to people I've never met

Hey ho. It gets us through the day

I am riddled with mental health issues, under treatment of course.
Its all good. PeeBee is both therapy and torture. When its the latter I go on hiatus

Scott_xP · August 7

https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1953490906968924384

kjh · August 7

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah

Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.

wooliedyed · August 7

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.

You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing

FrancisUrquhart · August 7

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

wooliedyed said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

Barnesian said:

Barnesian said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (=)
Plaid 1% (=)

Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

Changes from 30th July
[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

I have a detailed model by constituency.
It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
Should be:
Lab 137
Con 27
LD 85
Ref 335
Green 9
SNP 35
PC 4
NI 18

I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

This is just one corner of my new living room

Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol

Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Interesting character, @DougSeal

One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

@MartinDay was one - but before your time

That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.

Plato went down the rabbit hole of social media. It was a sad state of affairs as I believe a number of regulars from PB met her IRL and at the time came across as a perfectly nice normal individual.

Is Corbyn’s new party just too posh to appeal the voters? – politicalbetting.com

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