politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And for the evening with 100 days to go – a Marf cartoon

Ishmael_X said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Ishmael_X said:

JonnyJimmy said:

The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.

The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum

This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?

If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.

I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.

What are these 'other issues' that aren't affected by the EU?

Quite an important Yougov tonight. If the Tories are to make progress then they need a change of narrative. A consistent lead, even a small one, is a possible change. My guess is that it will be Labour by 1.

But we shall see.

compouter2 said:

Ishmael_X said:

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...

Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.

[caveat - it's the telegraph]

ARF! CAVEATASTIC!

Thank God you are safe, we've been so worried about you. When you went all quiet last night it looked like MH370 all over again.

You up to speed on yesterday's polling, or should we run through it with you?

That's so yesterday.

Tbf what's a few extra Tory poll leads compared to the zero you were expecting before the GE?

Neil said:

compouter2 said:

Ishmael_X said:

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...

Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.

[caveat - it's the telegraph]

ARF! CAVEATASTIC!

Thank God you are safe, we've been so worried about you. When you went all quiet last night it looked like MH370 all over again.

You up to speed on yesterday's polling, or should we run through it with you?

That's so yesterday.

Tbf what's a few extra Tory poll leads compared to the zero you were expecting before the GE?

Exactly.

compouter2 said:

Tory election campaign in meltdown, photo of Osborne with what looks like his Cameron sticking out and NHS still in crisis - Front Page Headline Screamer




*** Caveat it's the Mirror

Ah the Mirror. Notable silence from the people who put the NotW out of business, funny that.

Socrates said:

SquareRoot said:

Socrates said:

Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.

That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.

Strangely I don't think British convicted murderers being free to go to other countries makes up for foreign convicted murderers being free to come here. It's not a soundbite, it's a legitimate criticism of an idiotic policy.

Unless you plan to require all visitors to the UK to have visas and criminal record checks, then convicted criminals can come and go.

Governments have rightly decided that the economic damage from limiting trade and travel is greater than the risk of British citizens being killed.

Is like this, we could save 1,000 lives a year by cutting the speed limit on British roads to 20 miles per hour. But it would cost an awful lot of money. We price lives all the time, whether in transport policy or the NHS; why should one firm of violent premature death be priced differently to another?

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

Boom !!!!!!!! We're on a roll....... Mr Wisemann. Put another one in your pipe!


Thumbs down for the Sporting Life tipsters saying back Sheff Utd to get to Wembley.. at 13/2 ... it is value mind you!

TGOHF said:

Is there a Com Res VI out tonight ?

That was last night.

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov still the Gold Standard tonight

Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

Four out of six, so far this week.

Will we ever see another poll with Labour ahead?

(Note this is sarcasm, and not a prediction)

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov still the Gold Standard tonight

Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

LOL!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will we ever see another poll with Labour ahead?

(Note this is sarcasm, and not a prediction)

Noted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.

GeoffM said:

foxinsoxuk said:

GeoffM said:

viewcode said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.

Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.

The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.

There are many reasons why the old contract needed replacing. The demands of working out of hours became unsustainable. The average GP took a pay cut in order to opt out of out of hours cover. Even with the current contract there is a crisis of GP recruitment with many posts unfilled.

Getting graduates to want to work in General Practice is much more than about money, it is having a sustainable work-life balance.

Oh yes, I fully agree that the contracts needed reforming. However the consequences of what was actually done have been counterproductive and harmful. The subject needs to be re-visited.

There are limits to my sympathy, though, for those GPs who are working fewer hours for more money than the Prime Minister.

If it is money for old rope, why is it impossible to fill training posts or many senior posts?

It is not just about money, it is about being treated with respect. At the moment GPs get blamed for everything so they vote with their feet by leaving.

Of the last 7 polls, Labour have been ahead in 1: Populus by 1%.

audreyanne said:

The Conservatives are just 2% shy of their 2010 share … and yet we have been told so much about their poor polling?

Over 3 months to go, and a budget …

3% shy: you have to compare with the GB share of 37% not the UK share of 36%.

Wibble wobble jelly on a plate.

George Eaton‏@georgeeaton·1 min1 minute ago
The Tories long hoped that January would be "crossover" month. They're ahead again in tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Con 34%, Lab 33%.

AndyJS said:

Will YouGov have Labour ahead again? Maybe not.

There will always be outliers....

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tomorrow's thread idea - Tory leads in polls collapses from 3 to just 1 in space of a day.

Tomorrow's thread idea. Conservatives now usually in the lead. Here though is an article as to why they will lose......

What does lose mean? No overall majority? No minority government? No coalition?

Neil said:

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Is that the "no Tory poll leads before the GE" hill or another one?

As the tory/kipper baiting on pb has shown, Neil you are going the wrong way to recruiting this poor sad red to your green colours... don't fall in to the TPD trap!

Tories doing worse than 2010, Labour worse than 1992, the LDs worse than David Steel, the trend remains clear, and while Cameron may remain PM, on present trends it would probably have to be with the backing of both the LDs and DUP, maybe even UKIP too, so how long that would last is anyone's guess!

JohnO said:

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.

Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.

Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.

To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said

"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"

and you replied with such elan.

HYUFD said:

Tories doing worse than 2010, Labour worse than 1992, the LDs worse than David Steel, the trend remains clear, and while Cameron may remain PM, on present trends it would probably have to be with the backing of both the LDs and DUP, maybe even UKIP too, so how long that would last is anyone's guess!

About 20 seconds (being generous).

100 days to go - and the LibDems are on 7%.

It's OK to panic now guys.

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.

Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.

Total fantasy and even dare I say - Poppy cock - have a look in the mirror... [not the hacking rag]

EICIPM, Basil, Mr. Wisemann's no more leads than in 2014, NPxMP no real change for months & Reds still slightly ahead.... to name but a few regular themes.

steve_garner said:

Milburn sticking the boot into Ed shortly after Mandelson. Will a senior Blairite come out and say what they really think which is that a Miliband government will be a disaster for Britain?

Milburn now as well as Mandelson? What is Miliband doing so right? All he needs now is for John Hutton to say he'd be a f*cking disaster.

I'd have suggested Stephen Byers or Patricia Hewitt but does anyone actually remember either of them?

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.

Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.

Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.

To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said

"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"

and you replied with such elan.

Couldn't have been sober then!

Mr Owls said: I am sure ICM used to be regarded as the Gold Standard.

With less than 20 weeks to GE2015. ICM has LAB 3% ahead and the Tories going backward.

Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried.

To which you replied

"Nope, next"

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory leads were inevitable.

The moment Roger said Ed had had a storming start to the New Year by attacking Dave on the NHS and debates, we all knew what was going to happen.

Andy Burnham not terribly convincing on reversing NHS outsourcing on Newsnight. They are going to need a plan B on that blank sheet of paper.

Neil said:

steve_garner said:

Milburn sticking the boot into Ed shortly after Mandelson. Will a senior Blairite come out and say what they really think which is that a Miliband government will be a disaster for Britain?

Milburn now as well as Mandelson? What is Miliband doing so right? All he needs now is for John Hutton to say he'd be a f*cking disaster.

I'd have suggested Stephen Byers or Patricia Hewitt but does anyone actually remember either of them?

To be fair to John Hutton, he was right when he said Brown would be a fecking disaster as PM.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory leads were inevitable.

The moment Roger said Ed had had a storming start to the New Year by attacking Dave on the NHS and debates, we all knew what was going to happen.

Andy Burnham not terribly convincing on reversing NHS outsourcing on Newsnight. They are going to need a plan B on that blank sheet of paper.

Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>

HYUFD said:

ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni Wales poll CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8% http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yooqei4d9h/ITVWales_January15_w.pdf

Welsh satisfaction with the NHS in Wales: 72% to 21%... no wonder the Tory grumbles aren't taking off.

The Tory 1-point lead is pretty well-documented now. But another 6 or so needed to get back to square 1...

Neil said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.

Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.

Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.

Total fantasy and even dare I say - Poppy cock

But entertaining fantasy and poppy cock. It's what separates compouter2 from the merely blindly partisan.

That's more like it... you'll make him a convert yet.

SquareRoot said:

Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>

@thetimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour NHS strategy will bring 'poll catastrophe' http://t.co/1CIbFc9rkW

Labour election chaos over NHS as Ed Miliband accused of running 'comfort zone campaign'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11373412/Labour-election-chaos-over-NHS-as-Ed-Miliband-accused-of-running-comfort-zone-campaign.html

Last year I told people to keep an eye out for the moment that the Labour Party finally acknowledged that it was on course to lose the 2015 general election. It’s always very easy to spot. It’s the point at which Labour strategists say: “OK, none of this is working. We need to get back on to health”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11371998/Labour-is-blind-to-the-political-realities-of-the-NHS.html

Apparently Burnham had a bit of a meltdown on Newsnight. Only 99 days to go...

Scott_P said:

SquareRoot said:

Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>

@thetimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour NHS strategy will bring 'poll catastrophe' http://t.co/1CIbFc9rkW

Labour election chaos over NHS as Ed Miliband accused of running 'comfort zone campaign'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11373412/Labour-election-chaos-over-NHS-as-Ed-Miliband-accused-of-running-comfort-zone-campaign.html

Last year I told people to keep an eye out for the moment that the Labour Party finally acknowledged that it was on course to lose the 2015 general election. It’s always very easy to spot. It’s the point at which Labour strategists say: “OK, none of this is working. We need to get back on to health”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11371998/Labour-is-blind-to-the-political-realities-of-the-NHS.html

Apparently Burnham had a bit of a meltdown on Newsnight. Only 99 days to go...

Is there an echo in here?

@BBCNewsnight: .@andyburnhammp refuses to say whether a Labour gov't would increase or decrease NHS spending on private outsourcing of care #newsnight

Don't make him cry...

Ian Birrell‏@ianbirrell·4 mins4 minutes ago
Burnham says coalition 'putting NHS up for sale' when his govt gave twice as much NHS care to private providers. Such a hypocrite #newsnight

BBC Newsnight‏@BBCNewsnight·54 secs55 seconds ago
.@andyburnhammp refuses to say whether a Labour gov't would increase or decrease NHS spending on private outsourcing of care #newsnight

JohnO Indeed, another election then potentially enters the picture, although another Tory-LD agreement if it had the numbers could last the course

audreyanne The trend is clear, we are heading for a hung parliament with all the main parties squeezed by the Greens, UKIP and SNP

So 7 leads out of 37 in January, well done the tories

peter_from_putney said:

AndyJS said:

A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.

Come on Andy, you have a reputation on here as a numbers man.
38 seats lost by the Tories to Labour equates to a double whammy movement of 76 seats and does NOT equate GE outcome-wise to Labour losing a similar number to the SNP.

In terms of getting a majority it does.

SquareRoot said:

Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?

I was thinking just that this morning whilst listening to the charismatic and witty Ed Miliband, other than the NHS (and mostly because the public are ill informed) Labour have nothing else to talk about.

I'm coming round to the view that Labour's strategy throughout this parliament was to say nothing controversial, and not go into any detail, on the expectation that the coalition would inevitably break-up and/or everything would go horribly wrong. Labour expected the government to do the job of getting Labour elected for them.

But it hasn't worked out for Labour. The coalition has lasted against expectation, the economy is doing quite well and the EU/Eurozone is a bit of a mess by comparison, crime is down, we have record student numbers despite the fees, employment is bafflingly high, we've not gotten into any stupid diplomatic or foreign policy mess, the Tories have been surprisingly united, and even the Lib Dems are sticking with Clegg to the bitter end.

So things haven't gone badly enough to get Labour elected by default as they expected, and Labour is now left having to argue the case for their election when most of what they predicted has not happened, and the things they opposed have worked, and with only the flimsiest of policies to offer.

Labour may yet win, due to the electoral system, but they sure as hell do not deserve to, and they are not fit or ready for office.

JWisemann said:

So 7 leads out of 37 in January, well done the tories

Care to plot a chart of the tally month on month since 2010? Genuine request.